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It’s always the economy, stupid – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,838
    edited December 16

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
    No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
    It also fails to take account of the total package.

    Pay is a part of it.

    As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.

    That needs factorinf too.
    Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.

    Oh...
    I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.

    Something the debate misses.

    Something that quite a lot of people who work in the public sector miss. Because many people don’t really think about and compare their pension.
    It's a big problem for the public sector - when you're younger you desperately need the cash to save for a deposit or to look after the kids, so the size of the pension isn't as important as it is to other workers. Any organisation needs ambitious people in the their 20s and 30s to generate some energy and innovation (though experienced doctors/civil servants/police officers/soldiers with cool heads are also necessary).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,838
    edited December 16
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).

    .... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...

    So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.

    There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?
    Lies, dammed lies and statistics comes to mind but you start to see where the extra tax income generated at the budget is going.
    The majority of that additional tax is going to fiscal headroom, which is something to be encouraged imo - would have been tempting to spend it.

    About 10% in going on two-child limit, then you've got additional funding for SEND, NHS drugs, asylum system, cuts to energy bills. The public sector wage increases were in the last budget.
    You can try and dress it up however you like , "Fiscal Headroom" is just pyscho babble. It is being squandered on welfare increases and we will still liekly borrow even more money.
    He’s just drinking the Labour Comms Kool-Aid.

    Fiscal Headroom is meaningless especially given many of the tax increases are baked in for later in the parliament. Will stuff like the so called mansion tax even happen.

    Apart from public sector spending and public sector employment we have very little growth at all.

    The productive economy, we rely on, to fund public services. Which in turn support the productive economy. However there’s a disconnect. This govt is hopeless.
    But it's still true. DavidL suggested that the tax rises were funding public sector wage increases, when that was the story of the last budget, not this one.

    (I too am extremely sceptical that the headroom will come to pass. If the fiscal situation is looking ok by 2027 I'm sure Labour will splash the cash ahead of an election - probably on those most likely to vote (pensioners), so NHS. )
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 930
    edited December 16
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Introducing Andrea Burnham…

    Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.

    Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.


    https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2000865177571614916?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?
    We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.

    On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.

    “He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.

    I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.

    But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.

    So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
    There's some betting crying out to be had by you if you give SKS a 90% chance of getting through to the election. The market has it more like 25%.
    Thank you. I'm not on 90% but I'm certainly not on 25% either. I'm starting to lay 2026 now and will continue while it remains under evens and nothing changes (Not backing later years as no point in having cash tied up). Stonking value imo, seems like a classic "stuff doesn't happen as much as you think it does" market to me that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Recruitment seems to have collapsed both ways. I know qualified people who are finding it very hard to find jobs. And when recruiting we get piles of hopeless candidates. Who are just lobbed at us by the recruiters.

    I’ve advocated (at the bank) posting our jobs on the door, putting that on the internet. Anyone who has the gumption and level of existence to appear in person….

  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,705
    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    YouGov only started or restarted polling in January after a six month hiatus following the GE.

    Comparing today’s numbers with the January polling:

    Reform: +3
    Labour: -8
    Conservative: -4
    Green: +8
    Liberal Democrat: no change

    I think that sums up the political year 2025 quite nicely.



  • Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.

    I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
    Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
    I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.

    On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
    Now you are beginning to sound like Leon forecasting the end of universities. Remember for most people, university was not a trade school, more like a posh finishing school if you want to be cynical about it. For most graduate jobs, the degree subject was irrelevant, especially if we discount school teachers as a special case. @Leon himself is a writer without an English degree, specialising in travel despite not having a geography degree. How many MPs (and Prime Ministers) never graduated in politics?

    Pivoting slightly on the subject of languages, we should also note that which languages are studied depends on geography and geopolitics. German was ousted as number two after the fall of the Berlin Wall, while in Australia schools are more likely to teach Indonesian than Italian, along with Chinese or Japanese rather than Spanish or German.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,316
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

    We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
    A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

    I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
    Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
    Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

    https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

    Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
    I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
    Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

    One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
    That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
    They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
    There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
    Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.

    Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.

    The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
    A submersible drone is not really a massive advance on previously deployed technology, but it's definitely +1 for Ukraine that there's one less submarine to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059

    Andy_JS said:

    Remember when "prepping" was regarded as a sign of being extreme right-wing? Apparently now the Dutch government is recommending something similar.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opDEUX7MI7c

    The idiot version of prepping involves guns and is usually MAGA fuckwit associated.

    Keeping a supply of canned goods (plus pasta and rice) in the home, bottled water etc is pretty sensible. As is having a medical kit and some proper masks.
    I only recently finished the large bag of basmati rice we bought during Covid

    We shop at Costco so always have a decent supply of chick peas, chopped tomatoes, beans, pasta and rice around.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,495
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

    We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
    A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

    I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
    Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
    Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

    https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

    Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
    I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
    Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

    One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
    That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
    They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
    There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
    Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.

    Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.

    The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
    Could be that; could even be one of the Toloka drones they made sort of public back in September (with little or no solid information to say that they are real systems).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,246
    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290



    Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.

    I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
    Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
    I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.

    On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
    Now you are beginning to sound like Leon forecasting the end of universities. Remember for most people, university was not a trade school, more like a posh finishing school if you want to be cynical about it. For most graduate jobs, the degree subject was irrelevant, especially if we discount school teachers as a special case. @Leon himself is a writer without an English degree, specialising in travel despite not having a geography degree. How many MPs (and Prime Ministers) never graduated in politics?

    Pivoting slightly on the subject of languages, we should also note that which languages are studied depends on geography and geopolitics. German was ousted as number two after the fall of the Berlin Wall, while in Australia schools are more likely to teach Indonesian than Italian, along with Chinese or Japanese rather than Spanish or German.
    Undergrad is still not “trade skills” - mostly

    Hence the number of people doing “conversion”
    Masters to Business/Law.

    I advocate merging degrees and apprenticeships. So that apprenticeships are transferable, for a start. Get rid of the gulf between “trade” and “academic”.

    This would also mean more work for the university sector - they would do the classroom stuff for the apprenticeships. In time, they could also build up facilities for doing the technical training - which would help smaller firms who don’t have the facilities.

    Perhaps most importantly, encourage a mix - why not Elizabethan Poetry and Welding ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,874

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

    We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
    A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

    I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
    Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
    Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

    https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

    Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
    I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
    Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

    One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
    That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
    They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
    There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
    Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.

    Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.

    The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
    A submersible drone is not really a massive advance on previously deployed technology, but it's definitely +1 for Ukraine that there's one less submarine to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.
    It's a massive advance to get it all the way to Novorossiysk, navigate the harbour and hit a Kilo. If that's what happened.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,074
    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
  • isam said:

    Introducing Andrea Burnham…

    Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.

    Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.


    https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2000865177571614916?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?
    We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.

    On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.

    “He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.

    I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.

    But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.

    So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
    I have long thought Keir Starmer will follow Harold Wilson in taking early retirement. Trouble is, all this talk of ousting him might have the effect of cementing him in place. But again, Starmer is, in British terms, old and in decline, and has no great political project to see through. Most recent Prime Ministers have served for two or three years, and there is no point aiming for ten like Thatcher or Blair. So on balance, I'm still expecting Starmer to go but on his own terms because despite the feverish media speculation, there is no real mechanism to force him out, and certainly not to be replaced by a man outside the Commons.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,444
    edited December 16
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

    We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
    A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

    I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
    Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
    Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

    https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

    Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
    I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
    Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

    One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
    That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
    They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
    There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
    Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.

    Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.

    The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
    A submersible drone is not really a massive advance on previously deployed technology, but it's definitely +1 for Ukraine that there's one less submarine to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.
    In all the previous sea drone attacks, they used Starlink to control them.

    It’s not hard to imagine a submersible drone that runs inertially, then comes up for orders.

    The mini-Starlink dishes are pretty small now and the quality of the “lock” is crazy. In the US, the standard land based ones were getting popular with private pilots, before SpaceX clamped down on max speed) and there is a thing for mounting them for off road motorcycle races.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,316
    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    David Lammy's background is fascinating. It has British Empire written all over it. From Wikipedia:

    "He holds dual citizenship in the United Kingdom and Guyana. His great-grandmother was Indian, from Calcutta, who moved to Guyana as a labourer as part of the Indian indenture system. At Prime Ministers Question's on the 5th of November 2025, David Lammy stated he had taken a DNA test and was 5% Scottish."
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Recruitment seems to have collapsed both ways. I know qualified people who are finding it very hard to find jobs. And when recruiting we get piles of hopeless candidates. Who are just lobbed at us by the recruiters.

    I’ve advocated (at the bank) posting our jobs on the door, putting that on the internet. Anyone who has the gumption and level of existence to appear in person….

    Anecdotally from my LinkedIn I feel this is right.

    The amount of good people open to work, as opposed to the usual wasters, seems quite high at the moment.

    Hopefully if the manufacturing PMI keeps picking up these people will get work.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
    Oh, I dunno, Lib Dem’s are definitely barking.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,458

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Introducing Andrea Burnham…

    Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.

    Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.


    https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2000865177571614916?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?
    We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.

    On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.

    “He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.

    I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.

    But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.

    So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
    There's some betting crying out to be had by you if you give SKS a 90% chance of getting through to the election. The market has it more like 25%.
    Thank you. I'm not on 90% but I'm certainly not on 25% either. I'm starting to lay 2026 now and will continue while it remains under evens and nothing changes (Not backing later years as no point in having cash tied up). Stonking value imo, seems like a classic "stuff doesn't happen as much as you think it does" market to me that.
    I'd normally be right with you on that. My absolute best recent politics bet was laying Badenoch at 1.4 to go this year. "Toast" sentiment tends to overshoot bigtime. But with Keir Starmer I'm not so sure. I sense he is in trouble and I'm bottling the lay at this point. I want to do it though. It's a solid professional bet that deserves to come in. Let's see.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,121
    edited December 16
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Recruitment seems to have collapsed both ways. I know qualified people who are finding it very hard to find jobs. And when recruiting we get piles of hopeless candidates. Who are just lobbed at us by the recruiters.

    I’ve advocated (at the bank) posting our jobs on the door, putting that on the internet. Anyone who has the gumption and level of existence to appear in person….

    Anecdotally from my LinkedIn I feel this is right.

    The amount of good people open to work, as opposed to the usual wasters, seems quite high at the moment.

    Hopefully if the manufacturing PMI keeps picking up these people will get work.
    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
    Yes.

    He was the pilot who forced the Argentine submarine Santa Fe to surrender.

    See this comic exchange - https://x.com/drchrisparry/status/1918436557155107059?s=46&t=BXfRXqZ4RcCOdvlSgUjZSg
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,246
    edited December 16
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
    You noticed? :wink:

    I was interested that the second report came from the Telegraph.

    I think this will be a political problem for Farage. Everything he touches turns to badly implemented piles of shit. The questions will remain around perception. On that Telegraph report there are quite a few "Problem. What problem? Why are you reporting this?" comments.

    He's being defended by Danny Kruger, for one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Recruitment seems to have collapsed both ways. I know qualified people who are finding it very hard to find jobs. And when recruiting we get piles of hopeless candidates. Who are just lobbed at us by the recruiters.

    I’ve advocated (at the bank) posting our jobs on the door, putting that on the internet. Anyone who has the gumption and level of existence to appear in person….

    Anecdotally from my LinkedIn I feel this is right.

    The amount of good people open to work, as opposed to the usual wasters, seems quite high at the moment.

    Hopefully if the manufacturing PMI keeps picking up these people will get work.


    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,705
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
    Yet the party is polling consistently at or above its 2024 levels and local council by-election results continue to be good in the party’s areas of strength.

    We are barely 18 months into the Parliament and we have perhaps just under three and a half years to a May 2029 election when Reform will also have to defend the council seats they won last May.

    There is so much time for so much to happen and why harp on about the Lib Dems - you could mention the loss of a third of the 2024 Conservative vote and nearly half the 2024 Labour vote but if you can’t or won’t, I will.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,874

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
    Yes.

    He was the pilot who forced the Argentine submarine Santa Fe to surrender.

    See this comic exchange - https://x.com/drchrisparry/status/1918436557155107059?s=46&t=BXfRXqZ4RcCOdvlSgUjZSg
    He was an Observer not Two Winged Master Race. Fucking hell.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Triumphant Political Vetting:

    December 3: Rear Admiral Chris Parry (Times Radio talking head, pilot on South Georgia operation in 1982) selected to be a candidate for Mayor of Hampshire, IOW and the Solent.

    December 5: It turns out that in Feb 2025 Parry remarked that David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean. *

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly3n624wn5o
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b645a82d279f4523

    (* Lammy was born in Archway, London.)

    This wouldn’t happen to be a Reform candidate by any chance 🤞
    You noticed? :wink:

    I was interested that the second report came from the Telegraph,
    I’d have been stunned, given it was you posting it, if it had been any other party TBH 🤣
  • eekeek Posts: 32,165
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

    NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
    I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
    These people reckon 3.8% public sector versus 3% private.

    https://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/public-sector-pushes-median-pay-award-above-3-per-cent/
    blows the great private paid better crap, better pay rises and vastly better pension contributions , conditions on sick pay , etc etc
    That must be why the public sector find it so easy to recruit.
    Public sector employment at a record level, up 62,000 since Sept 24.

    It is hardly easy to recruit in the private sector too. I helped recruit my replacement. Plenty of poor candidates.
    Recruitment seems to have collapsed both ways. I know qualified people who are finding it very hard to find jobs. And when recruiting we get piles of hopeless candidates. Who are just lobbed at us by the recruiters.

    I’ve advocated (at the bank) posting our jobs on the door, putting that on the internet. Anyone who has the gumption and level of existence to appear in person….

    Anecdotally from my LinkedIn I feel this is right.

    The amount of good people open to work, as opposed to the usual wasters, seems quite high at the moment.

    Hopefully if the manufacturing PMI keeps picking up these people will get work.


    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,495
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Newsmax guy agreed that it was a weak case, but seemed to think we'd just settle on pragmatic (ie monetary) grounds, since a successful defence might still cost £50m plus.
    I guess someone working for Newmax places very little value on journalistic independence, so he might even have been commenting honestly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,074
    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
    Yet the party is polling consistently at or above its 2024 levels and local council by-election results continue to be good in the party’s areas of strength.

    We are barely 18 months into the Parliament and we have perhaps just under three and a half years to a May 2029 election when Reform will also have to defend the council seats they won last May.

    There is so much time for so much to happen and why harp on about the Lib Dems - you could mention the loss of a third of the 2024 Conservative vote and nearly half the 2024 Labour vote but if you can’t or won’t, I will.
    I mention it a lot because it's interesting. I genuinely accept the argument that they are doing well in council performance, they are polling at/above 2024, and are well place to do well (by LD standards) in 2029. But given the loss of a third of the 2024 Conservative vote and nearly half the 2024 Labour vote, they should be striding across the battlefield taking all the plunder going and administering the coup de grâce to the wailing LabCon casualties. And they're not.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,121
    edited December 16
    eek said:



    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

    It’s going to be a huge deal politically if it continues. Student Debt + no jobs == a political tinderbox.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
    Yet the party is polling consistently at or above its 2024 levels and local council by-election results continue to be good in the party’s areas of strength..
    Apart from the losses to Reform of seats previously held, of course.
  • Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Yeah but suppose Trump is attempting a mafia-style shakedown – write him a huge cheque or bad things will happen...

    In unrelated news today:-

    Trump suspends £31bn tech trade deal with Britain
    White House halts talks on AI, nuclear and quantum computing as it seeks better terms on wider trade

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/trump-suspends-31bn-tech-prosperity-deal-with-britain/ (£££)
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    edited December 16
    deleted

    Quotes are as screwed as one of TSE’s Stepmoms
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,874
    edited December 16
    eek said:




    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

    Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Newsmax guy agreed that it was a weak case, but seemed to think we'd just settle on pragmatic (ie monetary) grounds, since a successful defence might still cost £50m plus.
    I guess someone working for Newmax places very little value on journalistic independence, so he might even have been commenting honestly.
    BBC v Trump

    Like Neil Hamilton v Al Fayed.

    Can’t they both lose ?

    However anything that undermines the license fee is all well and good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,495

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Yeah but suppose Trump is attempting a mafia-style shakedown – write him a huge cheque or bad things will happen...

    In unrelated news today:-

    Trump suspends £31bn tech trade deal with Britain
    White House halts talks on AI, nuclear and quantum computing as it seeks better terms on wider trade

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/trump-suspends-31bn-tech-prosperity-deal-with-britain/ (£££)
    We should publicly do the same, and say we're open to discussing a better offer when they're ready to talk.
    Enough of playing the bloody poodle.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,458
    edited December 16
    I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:




    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

    Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.
    Did you want to give this person a slap. I bet they expect these two graduates to be eternally grateful to them as well.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,121
    edited December 16
    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:




    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

    Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.
    Yup - AI spamming in both directions.

    Then HR using AI to filter applications. Which of course leads to an arms race to fill your CV with bollocks that AI “likes”.

    And, of course, the candidates who are most likely to game their CVs…

    The result is a fog of garbage in which neither companies or competent candidates can find each other.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,121
    NB. I seem to have stuffed up the quoting. Apologies!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,060

    Andy_JS said:

    Remember when "prepping" was regarded as a sign of being extreme right-wing? Apparently now the Dutch government is recommending something similar.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opDEUX7MI7c

    The idiot version of prepping involves guns and is usually MAGA fuckwit associated.

    Keeping a supply of canned goods (plus pasta and rice) in the home, bottled water etc is pretty sensible. As is having a medical kit and some proper masks.
    Agreed. The masks can be rotated into DIY etc. if they are decent ones.

    Mrs C and I have had a couple big pots of spring water from the supermarket in store for years (renewing as needed). Partly because of Camelford.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Yeah but suppose Trump is attempting a mafia-style shakedown – write him a huge cheque or bad things will happen...

    In unrelated news today:-

    Trump suspends £31bn tech trade deal with Britain
    White House halts talks on AI, nuclear and quantum computing as it seeks better terms on wider trade

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/trump-suspends-31bn-tech-prosperity-deal-with-britain/ (£££)
    The government is stupid

    Offer Trump £100million a month in purchased TrumpCoin

    In return for trade polices, nuclear weapons for Ukraine etc etc.

    At the opportune moment, publicise the bribe with details…
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,316
    kinabalu said:

    I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.

    I am worried enough about Russia, but the real worry is China and how this affects their calculus with respect to an attempt to conquer Taiwan.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    Ah, okay. I’m a few hundred miles away. Cannot help or suggest.

    He could try a Biopharma Distributor in Abingdon looking for someone to do office work, but a leg up to Biopharma systems work as there will be more technical jobs available in future as they expand. Biopharma Dynamics. Think the job is still open. Saw it on LinkedIn a couple of weeks ago.

    Good luck to him anyway.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,204
    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
    Yet the party is polling consistently at or above its 2024 levels and local council by-election results continue to be good in the party’s areas of strength.

    We are barely 18 months into the Parliament and we have perhaps just under three and a half years to a May 2029 election when Reform will also have to defend the council seats they won last May.

    There is so much time for so much to happen and why harp on about the Lib Dems - you could mention the loss of a third of the 2024 Conservative vote and nearly half the 2024 Labour vote but if you can’t or won’t, I will.
    I stick by my view that the biggest voter groups are currently anti-Labour and anti-Tory. Neither group mind a LD councillor but would equally be happy with a Green or independent and often Reform too.

    Conventional polling assumes people vote for a party when in modern life almost as many are voting against one of the big two. It is those voters who allow the LDs to be electorally successful without doing well in the polls.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,104

    Nigelb said:

    If the BBC needs tips on how to respond to Trump's "powerhouse" lawsuit, this's should help.

    Pulitzer Prize Board members dump broad discovery demands on Trump for tax returns, psych records, and 'any' prescription meds history*
    https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/pulitzer-prize-board-members-fight-back-with-wide-ranging-discovery-demands-including-about-trump-finances/

    *He's also claiming "emotional damage"

    I assume Trump will shortly be taking out a defamation suit against the English language which through its fake conventions and accepted meanings have twisted Trump’s words to give the impression that he’s a gross, grifting, sociopathic shitstain suffering from encroaching senility, and who is not the sharpest tool in the box.
    I've never liked Trump but I now have zero tolerance for any of his apologists - anyone who could try and excuse his remarks about Rob Reiner has no moral compass
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Yeah but suppose Trump is attempting a mafia-style shakedown – write him a huge cheque or bad things will happen...

    In unrelated news today:-

    Trump suspends £31bn tech trade deal with Britain
    White House halts talks on AI, nuclear and quantum computing as it seeks better terms on wider trade

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/trump-suspends-31bn-tech-prosperity-deal-with-britain/ (£££)
    The government is stupid

    Offer Trump £100million a month in purchased TrumpCoin

    In return for trade polices, nuclear weapons for Ukraine etc etc.

    At the opportune moment, publicise the bribe with details…
    Everything is transactional with Trump I suspect. Plenty here are experts on the inner workings of his mind, I’m just a hack.

    As long as he gets a deal he's happy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)

    From
    @YouGov

    From 14th - 15th December
    Changes with 8th December"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247

    That LibDem dog still isn't barking. But we now have a approx three-way tie for second place. Which is...weird?
    Yet the party is polling consistently at or above its 2024 levels and local council by-election results continue to be good in the party’s areas of strength.

    We are barely 18 months into the Parliament and we have perhaps just under three and a half years to a May 2029 election when Reform will also have to defend the council seats they won last May.

    There is so much time for so much to happen and why harp on about the Lib Dems - you could mention the loss of a third of the 2024 Conservative vote and nearly half the 2024 Labour vote but if you can’t or won’t, I will.
    I stick by my view that the biggest voter groups are currently anti-Labour and anti-Tory. Neither group mind a LD councillor but would equally be happy with a Green or independent and often Reform too.

    Conventional polling assumes people vote for a party when in modern life almost as many are voting against one of the big two. It is those voters who allow the LDs to be electorally successful without doing well in the polls.
    As much as I think nationally the Greens are absolutely fucked in the head I’d consider a local councillor that was Green. The old style. Not obsessed with Gaza and cross dressers but who cares about the environment and the area.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,874
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:




    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

    Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.
    Did you want to give this person a slap. I bet they expect these two graduates to be eternally grateful to them as well.
    Not particularly. He's one of these padded waistcoat/trainer wankers with a fucking haircut who says things like "functionality" but he's got an e-tron GT with a 7 grand colour-to-sample paint job so that's pretty cool.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290

    kinabalu said:

    I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.

    I am worried enough about Russia, but the real worry is China and how this affects their calculus with respect to an attempt to conquer Taiwan.
    Note that Poland is pushing ahead with a nuclear power plant.

    And before the “civil plutonium” thing comes up

    1) The US built and tested a device with more than 25% Pu240. Must have been fun. The core would have litterally glowed with heat unless actively cooled.
    2) it’s easy to make “military grade” plutonium in a civil power plant. You take the fuel rods out early and run at low power. The international inspectors try and check for that happening, but humans are cunning and all kinds of shell games are possible - “we are making medical isotopes, so putting these special rods in for x weeks” etc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,482
    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,008
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:




    The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

    Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.
    Did you want to give this person a slap. I bet they expect these two graduates to be eternally grateful to them as well.
    Not particularly. He's one of these padded waistcoat/trainer wankers with a fucking haircut who says things like "functionality" but he's got an e-tron GT with a 7 grand colour-to-sample paint job so that's pretty cool.
    Always a silver lining to every cloud 👍
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,008
    Universal Studios theme park to go ahead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93nw22343ro

    There's a bit of growth potential.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    Yeah but suppose Trump is attempting a mafia-style shakedown – write him a huge cheque or bad things will happen...

    In unrelated news today:-

    Trump suspends £31bn tech trade deal with Britain
    White House halts talks on AI, nuclear and quantum computing as it seeks better terms on wider trade

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/trump-suspends-31bn-tech-prosperity-deal-with-britain/ (£££)
    The government is stupid

    Offer Trump £100million a month in purchased TrumpCoin

    In return for trade polices, nuclear weapons for Ukraine etc etc.

    At the opportune moment, publicise the bribe with details…
    Everything is transactional with Trump I suspect. Plenty here are experts on the inner workings of his mind, I’m just a hack.

    As long as he gets a deal he's happy.
    Which is why I’m suggesting an ongoing transaction.

    Buying TrumpCoin has got drug lords out of prison - during Trump’s illegal war on “drug smugglers”.

    So buying US foreign policy is a probably effective strategy.

    Plus setting him up for a slam dunk bribery case will play well with the Democrats when the backlash against Trump hits.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,458

    kinabalu said:

    I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.

    I am worried enough about Russia, but the real worry is China and how this affects their calculus with respect to an attempt to conquer Taiwan.
    Yes, the same point applies, swapping China for Russia and Taiwan for European NATO country. I suppose the odds are we make it through to post Trump without complete and utter carnage but I do think the chances of it are a bit higher than you'd like and moving in the wrong direction.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290
    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
    Absolutely no anger & empathy issues there….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,290
    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    Problem is that a lot of places have stopped grad level hiring. Often for the last two years.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,285
    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
    yeah working from home is great if you have nice house garden etc. not so much if you in some flatshare.
  • kinabalu said:

    I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.

    Another question is whether Russia can use its nuclear weapons against Nato without immediate retaliation from China. Can the PLA be sure its sensors are detecting an attack on the West and not China? It will see missiles going up but can it afford to wait and see where they land? MAD may have entered a new phase.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,838
    edited December 16
    3 year driving ban is absurd for the Liverpool Parade driver. If that's not a life ban, what is? We should not be expected up share the road with someone like this.

    Government should pass some urgent legislation that ensures life ban from driving if a vehicle is used as a weapon.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,108
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.

    I am worried enough about Russia, but the real worry is China and how this affects their calculus with respect to an attempt to conquer Taiwan.
    Yes, the same point applies, swapping China for Russia and Taiwan for European NATO country. I suppose the odds are we make it through to post Trump without complete and utter carnage but I do think the chances of it are a bit higher than you'd like and moving in the wrong direction.
    Sure. The Trump Kleptocracy would happily throw nations like Taiwan and South Korea under the bus, if the price they were offered was attractive enough. Anyone who's an "ally" of the USA has to assume that at some point, the current administration would sell them to their enemies.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,482

    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
    Absolutely no anger & empathy issues there….
    Meow, green cheese gets you nowhere. You are obviously not very good on the uptake re online persona
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,121
    edited December 16
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    Isn't it the case that public sector wages lag private sector wages - pay settlements tend to be based on historic rates of inflation. In fact, you can see that quite clearly here in Figure 4/5, with public sector wages well behind private sector during the post-COVID period: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/december2025
    add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.
    I think it very much depends where you are. In most of Scotland public sector pay is actually substantially ahead of what the private sector is offering. So, for example, a one year qualified solicitor in the private sector will earn somewhere between £40 and £50k outside the most demanding areas. A procurator fiscal with the same qualifications will be paid £52-54K plus the extras that come from the public sector such as pension rights, more holidays, better sick pay, greater security of employment etc.

    This is a problem for the private firms and more generally it is a real problem for the economy since the cream of the crop are tempted to the public sector where their skills are not necessarily fully utilised. This makes growing businesses in Scotland, and in other areas with depressed earnings, much more difficult and removes potential innovators or entrepreneurs from the scene.

    In contrast, in more affluent areas we see the public sector really struggling to get qualified staff at all because they cannot compete with what is on offer.

    The combination of these effects are to depress growth, entrepreneurship and investment in our poorer areas and to increase these in the richer ones. This is one of the major reasons so much money invested in "levelling up" , regional investment funds etc has simply not worked. Ironically, given this money is public sector driven, it can aggravate the problem rather than address it. Do you want a safe, secure, well paid job in some "enterprise company" or take your chances with a dodgy start up?

    I think it is a major factor in our economic performance because we create this huge drag factor. Only existing hot spots can create the opportunities and employment needed for growth. Everywhere else the dead hand of an overheavy, over paid public sector destroys growth.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,482
    Tres said:

    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
    yeah working from home is great if you have nice house garden etc. not so much if you in some flatshare.
    this is true and a pleasant office etc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,572

    isam said:

    Introducing Andrea Burnham…

    Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.

    Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.


    https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2000865177571614916?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?
    We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.

    On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.

    “He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.

    I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.

    But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.

    So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
    I have long thought Keir Starmer will follow Harold Wilson in taking early retirement. Trouble is, all this talk of ousting him might have the effect of cementing him in place. But again, Starmer is, in British terms, old and in decline, and has no great political project to see through. Most recent Prime Ministers have served for two or three years, and there is no point aiming for ten like Thatcher or Blair. So on balance, I'm still expecting Starmer to go but on his own terms because despite the feverish media speculation, there is no real mechanism to force him out, and certainly not to be replaced by a man outside the Commons.
    No PM wants their spell in office to end in failure, and they will fight hard to avoid such a fate, despite it almost always proving pre-ordained from the day they took the job.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,121
    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    He probably is. If he cuts them out won’t employers draw the obvious conclusion?
  • Eabhal said:

    3 year driving ban is absurd for the Liverpool Parade driver. If that's not a life ban, what is? We should not be expected up share the road with someone like this.

    Government should pass some urgent legislation that ensures life ban from driving if a vehicle is used as a weapon.

    21.5 years incarceration though.

    If he's out on the streets driving in 3 years and a day, there's something very wrong.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,874
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    RAF Engineering loves these types. A few short years hence he could be on the Moray Riviera trying to stop somebody from attempting to fix a P-8 with a hammer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,572
    edited December 16
    Top journalism on display from the BBC, sending Sarah Montague from WATO into Israel and the West Bank, herself unable to speak either Herbrew or Arabic and seemingly having no-one with her who can, reduced to going round asking people in the middle of that conflict zone whether they speak English.
  • To think there were people blaming Liverpool fans for this act of terror.

    I might name and shame some people later.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,481
    Eabhal said:

    3 year driving ban is absurd for the Liverpool Parade driver. If that's not a life ban, what is? We should not be expected up share the road with someone like this.

    Government should pass some urgent legislation that ensures life ban from driving if a vehicle is used as a weapon.

    Is that AFTER the 21 years in prison? (Ok I know he will be out sooner, but still).
  • carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    Problem is that a lot of places have stopped grad level hiring. Often for the last two years.
    Luckily the Government isn't doing anything silly like jacking up taxes on employment or ramping up employment costs at a time of crisis of growing youth unemployment.

    Oh ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,482
    Dura_Ace said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    RAF Engineering loves these types. A few short years hence he could be on the Moray Riviera trying to stop somebody from attempting to fix a P-8 with a hammer.
    Nice location as well, hard to beat
  • Eabhal said:

    3 year driving ban is absurd for the Liverpool Parade driver. If that's not a life ban, what is? We should not be expected up share the road with someone like this.

    Government should pass some urgent legislation that ensures life ban from driving if a vehicle is used as a weapon.

    Is that AFTER the 21 years in prison? (Ok I know he will be out sooner, but still).
    Yes, it is usually part of their release/licence conditions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,790

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

    We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
    A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

    I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
    Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
    Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

    https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

    Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
    I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
    Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

    One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
    That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
    They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
    There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
    Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.

    Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.

    The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
    A submersible drone is not really a massive advance on previously deployed technology, but it's definitely +1 for Ukraine that there's one less submarine to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.
    This isn’t the “Sea Baby” surface ship drone, this is the “Sub Sea Baby”, an unmanned submarine on a suicide mission.

    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/01/exclusive-new-ukrainian-underwater-drone-project-to-dominate-the-black-sea/

    I suspect that this is developed by Anduril and the Ukranians, basically a navigable torpedo.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,117
    Phil said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    He probably is. If he cuts them out won’t employers draw the obvious conclusion?
    Lot’s really don’t care anymore
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,838
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    Isn't it the case that public sector wages lag private sector wages - pay settlements tend to be based on historic rates of inflation. In fact, you can see that quite clearly here in Figure 4/5, with public sector wages well behind private sector during the post-COVID period: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/december2025
    add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.
    I think it very much depends where you are. In most of Scotland public sector pay is actually substantially ahead of what the private sector is offering. So, for example, a one year qualified solicitor in the private sector will earn somewhere between £40 and £50k outside the most demanding areas. A procurator fiscal with the same qualifications will be paid £52-54K plus the extras that come from the public sector such as pension rights, more holidays, better sick pay, greater security of employment etc.

    This is a problem for the private firms and more generally it is a real problem for the economy since the cream of the crop are tempted to the public sector where their skills are not necessarily fully utilised. This makes growing businesses in Scotland, and in other areas with depressed earnings, much more difficult and removes potential innovators or entrepreneurs from the scene.

    In contrast, in more affluent areas we see the public sector really struggling to get qualified staff at all because they cannot compete with what is on offer.

    The combination of these effects are to depress growth, entrepreneurship and investment in our poorer areas and to increase these in the richer ones. This is one of the major reasons so much money invested in "levelling up" , regional investment funds etc has simply not worked. Ironically, given this money is public sector driven, it can aggravate the problem rather than address it. Do you want a safe, secure, well paid job in some "enterprise company" or take your chances with a dodgy start up?

    I think it is a major factor in our economic performance because we create this huge drag factor. Only existing hot spots can create the opportunities and employment needed for growth. Everywhere else the dead hand of an overheavy, over paid public sector destroys growth.
    The trouble is the solution doesn't work either - it's incredibly difficult to get doctors to move to the Highlands for example - my partner turned down a £20k golden handshake. You can also argue that the public sector underpins much economic demand in poorer/rural areas, because those teachers/doctors/lawyers are spending money in the local economy.

    And the inverse is true in somewhere like Edinburgh - if you boosted salaries here relative to Glasgow all you'd do is concentrate even more economic demand on the east coast.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,481

    To think there were people blaming Liverpool fans for this act of terror.

    I might name and shame some people later.

    Liverpool as a place and as fans inhabit a weird land of being victims and loving being victims. What happened at the parade was horrific - one man's inability to control his anger and entitlement. And in recent times Liverpool fans have been far more sinned against than sinners. But I still recall Heysel, and I think too many make martyrs of the 96, and forget the 39. Johnson was not always wrong in the things he said.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,081
    Rachel from customer service has really fucked the economy. Real terms pay contraction for private sector workers next year, inflation unlikely to drop and the BoE being forced to cut rates because the economy is in the shitter and the jobs market has been shat on.

    I'm not sure the country can take 3 more years of this level of incompetence and malevolence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,572
    Tres said:

    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
    yeah working from home is great if you have nice house garden etc. not so much if you in some flatshare.
    With supermarket home delivery, our Malc doesn’t need to go out at all. He just needs a dog to supply some dogs**t for him to throw at anyone who comes too close to his fence.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,121
    Taz said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    Ah, okay. I’m a few hundred miles away. Cannot help or suggest.

    He could try a Biopharma Distributor in Abingdon looking for someone to do office work, but a leg up to Biopharma systems work as there will be more technical jobs available in future as they expand. Biopharma Dynamics. Think the job is still open. Saw it on LinkedIn a couple of weeks ago.

    Good luck to him anyway.
    No worries. Thanks for the pointer.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,481
    Phil said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    He probably is. If he cuts them out won’t employers draw the obvious conclusion?
    I guess the other question is what kinds of role is he after? Is he staying in a related field or he changing direction?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,579
    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    What's wrong with putting your 'A' Levels on your CV? Is it because some filter algorithm or other will mark you as a non-graduate?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,059
    IanB2 said:

    Tres said:

    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

    Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
    ...
    Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.


    So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

    How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
    Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
    Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
    I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
    I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

    The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
    I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.
    yeah working from home is great if you have nice house garden etc. not so much if you in some flatshare.
    With supermarket home delivery, our Malc doesn’t need to go out at all. He just needs a dog to supply some dogs**t for him to throw at anyone who comes too close to his fence.
    Aren’t you the guy with a dog ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,838
    edited December 16

    Eabhal said:

    3 year driving ban is absurd for the Liverpool Parade driver. If that's not a life ban, what is? We should not be expected up share the road with someone like this.

    Government should pass some urgent legislation that ensures life ban from driving if a vehicle is used as a weapon.

    Is that AFTER the 21 years in prison? (Ok I know he will be out sooner, but still).
    After. I still thinks it's completely absurd, the idea that someone with a history of using a car as weapon again hundreds of people, including children in prams, should be allowed behind the wheel again? It's an outrage.

    The safety of those using Liverpool's streets far outweighs this man's right to drive a car. The judge will look like a complete muppet if in 20 years time the red mist descends again and some poor kid is smashed to pieces on a zebra crossing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,481

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    What's wrong with putting your 'A' Levels on your CV? Is it because some filter algorithm or other will mark you as a non-graduate?
    I'd guess if they are not A*A*A*A* then you lose place in the rankings. Lots of high fliers will have that to go with the 1st Class degree.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,225
    edited December 16
    Phil said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    He probably is. If he cuts them out won’t employers draw the obvious conclusion?
    Most won't care what A-levels he has but by including them, he forces them to take notice. It's the latest score that counts. He has a First, which is good, so he should not dilute it. What is he looking for, in an ideal world?

    If you can, check his cv. Proof-read it thoroughly. Be ruthless. If he talks about ‘attention to detail’ then as sure as night follows day, his dates will be inconsistently formatted or some such. His summary should be one line: who he is and what he wants (tailored to each application, of course) and not a full paragraph of vacuous drivel. If he is on LinkedIn, make sure his details there match because people will check.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,481
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    3 year driving ban is absurd for the Liverpool Parade driver. If that's not a life ban, what is? We should not be expected up share the road with someone like this.

    Government should pass some urgent legislation that ensures life ban from driving if a vehicle is used as a weapon.

    Is that AFTER the 21 years in prison? (Ok I know he will be out sooner, but still).
    After. I still thinks it's completely absurd, the idea that someone with a history of using a car as weapon again hundreds of people, including children in prams, should be allowed behind the wheel again? It's an outrage.
    Its a really odd one. Has he ever done anything like this before? (History of driving offences?). And yes, you can make the case for never being allowed to drive after something like this. Personally I'd prefer it if he had to prove a positive about his behaviour having changed, but maybe thats not something the system allows.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,790
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

    There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

    I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
    The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
    It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
    I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

    US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

    They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.
    “I’m on the side of... Trump… in the US court system”

    “The BBC in this case… has an extraordinary high bar to pass in the US court system”

    Are those fair edits of your comment? Because that’s what the BBC did to the President. They’d decided in advance the narrative they wished to portray of Trump’s speech, and then edited it way out of context when it turned out that he didn’t actually say what they wanted him to have said that day.

    (Yes I know this is an unpopular opinion on here).
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,008
    edited December 16
    Phil said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    He probably is. If he cuts them out won’t employers draw the obvious conclusion?
    Degree erases A levels. His academic performance as a child is not really relevant. If an employer really wants to know they can ask. But many more would be put off by seeing them than would ask, I would imagine.

    Edit: also, if they ask, it gives him a chance at giving an explanation, which can't really be done on a CV.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,036
    edited December 16
    DougSeal said:

    Phil said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?
    He probably is. If he cuts them out won’t employers draw the obvious conclusion?
    Lot’s really don’t care anymore
    I think most do care. My step-daughter has graduated, done a law conversion course and is on her third job, and prospective employers are still very interested in her A-levels. Hers were pretty modest (BCC) and have considerably restricted her job choice, but you can't simply omit mediocre grades from your CV. It would be a really strange thing for a recent graduate to do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,056
    IanB2 said:

    Top journalism on display from the BBC, sending Sarah Montague from WATO into Israel and the West Bank, herself unable to speak either Herbrew or Arabic and seemingly having no-one with her who can, reduced to going round asking people in the middle of that conflict zone whether they speak English.

    There was something quintessentially British about her cut glass tones plaintively requesting a chat. Of course it would be amazing if the settlers and security forces didn't speak at least some English, they just didn't want to be on record defending the indefensible. And of course the BBC are Hamas.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,121
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

    And sometimes words just fail me:

    "Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

    Isn't it the case that public sector wages lag private sector wages - pay settlements tend to be based on historic rates of inflation. In fact, you can see that quite clearly here in Figure 4/5, with public sector wages well behind private sector during the post-COVID period: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/december2025
    add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.
    I think it very much depends where you are. In most of Scotland public sector pay is actually substantially ahead of what the private sector is offering. So, for example, a one year qualified solicitor in the private sector will earn somewhere between £40 and £50k outside the most demanding areas. A procurator fiscal with the same qualifications will be paid £52-54K plus the extras that come from the public sector such as pension rights, more holidays, better sick pay, greater security of employment etc.

    This is a problem for the private firms and more generally it is a real problem for the economy since the cream of the crop are tempted to the public sector where their skills are not necessarily fully utilised. This makes growing businesses in Scotland, and in other areas with depressed earnings, much more difficult and removes potential innovators or entrepreneurs from the scene.

    In contrast, in more affluent areas we see the public sector really struggling to get qualified staff at all because they cannot compete with what is on offer.

    The combination of these effects are to depress growth, entrepreneurship and investment in our poorer areas and to increase these in the richer ones. This is one of the major reasons so much money invested in "levelling up" , regional investment funds etc has simply not worked. Ironically, given this money is public sector driven, it can aggravate the problem rather than address it. Do you want a safe, secure, well paid job in some "enterprise company" or take your chances with a dodgy start up?

    I think it is a major factor in our economic performance because we create this huge drag factor. Only existing hot spots can create the opportunities and employment needed for growth. Everywhere else the dead hand of an overheavy, over paid public sector destroys growth.
    The trouble is the solution doesn't work either - it's incredibly difficult to get doctors to move to the Highlands for example - my partner turned down a £20k golden handshake. You can also argue that the public sector underpins much economic demand in poorer/rural areas, because those teachers/doctors/lawyers are spending money in the local economy.

    And the inverse is true in somewhere like Edinburgh - if you boosted salaries here relative to Glasgow all you'd do is concentrate even more economic demand on the east coast.
    What is needed is much more flexibility in pay structures more related to the local market. So in Edinburgh, for example, local authorities probably need to pay more to get half decent staff, but in most areas, Dundee for example, they should be paying significantly less. I take the point about that money keeping the local economy alive but it does so at a tremendous hidden cost that condemns those areas to long term failure.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,130

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning

    Poor economic news this morning but absolutely no surprise

    Handing huge public sector pay rises whilst at the same time clobbering business with additional taxes and awarding massive increases in the minimum wage to young workers results in devastating employment and prospects especially for the young

    Why would any business employ young workers when they can, for the same wage engage mature and experience staff

    Labour often talk about Truss, but Starmer and Reeves have done far more long term damage to the economy and it will be very difficult to reverse

    Add in the workers rights bill and the country can now see why ''Labour is not working'

    The workers rights bill has largely been fixed. 6 months before full rights kick in is fine. Day 1 was worse than 2 years, but 6 months is better than both.
    Most companies I know had a 3 month/6 month trial period and a review at the end of the trial to decide if the job was working out. This should now mean the end-of-trial review will become key to any continuation of employment. Makes sense to review after 3/6 months as it minimises the damage to the company from a poor performer or those unhappy in a role.
    Oh great. My daughter helped draft that. [Buffs nails with pride.] Probably means she'll have some time free to see us this Christmas. :)
    In the US, some companies ditched the ever increasing number of rounds of interviews. One interview to get a guesstimate of usefulness, 3 month contract as probation followed (or not) by a permanent role.

    Generally received well - both by potential employees and the people working with new hires.
    The interview process is fraught with difficulties for companies in that some unsuccessful (and totally unqualified) candidates complain of bias and go off to a lawyer. The cost of defending in time and money can be painful so policies are rewritten to be even more of a box ticking exercise.

    If you want a job you write to companies that you want to work for, and sell your skills. Sometimes they are happy to get you into the role just to avoid the interview process. So if you want to succeed, avoid companies that insist on an interview process.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,117
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:



    Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

    Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

    What part of the UK ?
    Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

    He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

    I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.
    Ah, okay. I’m a few hundred miles away. Cannot help or suggest.

    He could try a Biopharma Distributor in Abingdon looking for someone to do office work, but a leg up to Biopharma systems work as there will be more technical jobs available in future as they expand. Biopharma Dynamics. Think the job is still open. Saw it on LinkedIn a couple of weeks ago.

    Good luck to him anyway.
    No worries. Thanks for the pointer.
    Has he thought about joining a patent attorney scheme? Always looking for science grads
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