add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.
How long did you work in the public sector Malc?
6 years Ben , and it was a wheeze , pub most days , great expenses and you had all the time in the world for your own pursuits as the time to do jobs was incredible.
The public sector was very different in the 1950s.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.
NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).
.... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...
So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.
There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?
Lies, dammed lies and statistics comes to mind but you start to see where the extra tax income generated at the budget is going.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
It does not help using Z to mean Zelensky while Russian advocates use Z to mean their SMO.
They need to get back to selling Russian oil pipelined (at a commission) through Ukraine. Currently no-one can buy or reliably deliver the stuff owing to American secondary sanctions and Ukrainian explosives, so this is probably the economic win-win both sides need once the face-saving part has been agreed.
Typical from Russian shill, they are uncouth oafs , hopefully they get their comeuppance big time. They can continue crapping in the streets and living in hovels.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.
NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).
.... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...
So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.
There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?
Lies, dammed lies and statistics comes to mind but you start to see where the extra tax income generated at the budget is going.
The majority of that additional tax is going to fiscal headroom, which is something to be encouraged imo - would have been tempting to spend it.
About 10% in going on two-child limit, then you've got additional funding for SEND, NHS drugs, asylum system, cuts to energy bills. The public sector wage increases were in the last budget.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
I suspect that's partly because the main promotors of supporting Ukraine in the respective countries are two very unpopular politicians, Macron and Merz. Like Starmer Merz is even less popular than his predecessor.
By that logic the UK should be very anti supporting Ukraine.
The difference is that Ukraine has cross party support in the UK - I guess we can thank Boris Johnson for that - while Merz is out on a limb. What he promotes is tainted by association.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
My father bought the Guardian, Times, Independent and Telegraph on that basis. With the Economist as well.
In the original version, the Independent was genuinely independent. Lasted a year or two in that form IIRC.
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
Indeed, no civil servant will join before 11:20
The cheap jibe aside, one of my perennial bugbears in my local Government career was senior officers moving from meeting to meeting and often arriving late and unfocused and that applied both in the office and on Teams calls.
Managing meetings was a perennial struggle - I acquired a bit of a reputation for being a tyrannical Chair but I always wanted a 60 minute meeting to end after 50 minutes to allow those moving to the next meeting time to move, both physically and mentally, from the one issue to the next.
Part of what is perceived as the issue with decision making stems from this, I believe. Senior and especially middle management are overworked and become scared of taking decisions because they fear there has been inadequate discussion and the standard response is to arrange another meeting which rehashes all the old arguments wasting everyone’s time,
Whisper it quietly, but I suspect this happens in the private sector too.
I asked a chatbot yesterday how to waste as much time as possible by calling a pointless meeting.
If your goal is maximum wasted time, book a meeting titled:
“Alignment on the Alignment: Scope, Ownership, and Next Steps” (60 mins)
Agenda (aka time-sink fuel): 1) 10 min — “Context recap” (read the same thing everyone read yesterday) 2) 15 min — Define what “done” means (argue about words, decide nothing) 3) 10 min — Ownership (assign “shared ownership”, i.e., nobody) 4) 15 min — Options review (2 options, pick “we need more data”) 5) 10 min — Next steps (schedule another meeting)
Invite at least one person who shouldn’t be there and one person who can’t decide anything. End with: “Let’s take this offline” and don’t.
I laughed for a moment then realised it sounded just like all the meetings I actually have to sit through.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.
NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).
.... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...
So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.
There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?
But that’s great! This quarter they get to do a “evil public sector eating our lunch” and next quarter it’s “hard working underpaid public servants”.
I see Trump remains less than delighted with the BBC.
To be fair he does have a point about the defamation, although IIRC the programme in question was never broadcast in the US and he’s not going to get a billion-dollar settlement from a UK court.
More likely he wants to waste BBC management time and make them hire a bunch of lawyers to defend themselves or apologise in court.
His comments on the BBC somewhat overshadowed by those on Rob Reiner, which were harsh even by his low standards of speaking about opponents. One should not speak ill of the dead, especially not given the circumstances, as many of his supporters and GOP politicians have made clear.
That post is wrong in so many ways…
He doesn’t have a point on defamation - the editing was poor and arguably misleading but it didn’t come up with anything that hundreds of others haven’t accused him of.
He’s out of time in the UK and the US courts (as you note) don’t have standing.
It’s just simply an attempted shakedown and fully credit to the BBC for standing up to him
The BBC editing would pretty easily win a defamation suit in the UK, and probably meat the “actual malice” standard of defamation of a public figure in the US.
It was a pretty egregious example of a total failure to uphold journalistic standards, and has severely damaged the BBC’s reputation especially in the US. You simply can’t edit someone’s words to make them say exactly the opposite of what they actually said.
What he wants, and will probably get, is an apology and a donation to his library or ballroom.
Please provide evidence for your assertion to it would “pretty easily” win a defamation case. It took actual words that he said - the error was not to include the blank screen that they usually do. So it was misleading but plenty of people have accused him of attempting to incite a riot.
And just to be clear: it wasn’t the “absolute opposite” of what he said.
In the UK you need to prove damage to reputation, in the US you need to prove it was malicious to boot.
It was poor journalism and an error. That deserves an apology but not monetary compensation.
Sandpit's crush on Trump continues to blossom
Don’t worry, I’m happy to critisise his comments on Rob Reiner, as well as a fair amount of his comments regarding Ukraine.
The problem, as with so much commentary on Trump, is that people start from their conclusion and work backwards, which is really dangerous.
The BBC-think is “Well of course he incited a riot, so let’s just edit his speech to make that absolutely clear”. That’s not journalism, that’s propaganda.
Well, of course Trump incited a riot. The BDS* is strong with this one.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Putin's immediate goal is Ukrainian surrender. Definition of surrender is subjective to Putin but it needs to be believable, and likely to be so unacceptable to Ukraine they will think they have no choice but carry on fighting. Not least because no-one thinks this surrender is Putin's end game.
I suspect the only chance of a face saving deal is if Putin is replaced by someone less invested in the original Special Military Operation decision AND Russia is hurting more than it currently is. Which also implies a continuation of fighting unfortunately.
add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.
How long did you work in the public sector Malc?
6 years Ben , and it was a wheeze , pub most days , great expenses and you had all the time in the world for your own pursuits as the time to do jobs was incredible.
The public sector was very different in the 1950s.
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
On thread, what Democrats also have going for them is that Trump still insists on digging an even bigger hole for himself by telling the US consumer that they've never had it so good and that lack of affordability is a fake news hoax etc etc.
The Big Lie tactic doesn't work so well when people can see for themselves that it is one.
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
However, I genuinely struggle to understand what any of the other options can actually do that won’t put them back in exactly the same position.
If it’s entirely a comms issue that’s rather contrary to much (not all) of the criticism I read, that it is not that simple.
I personally don’t rate Burnham at all however he’s clearly got some popularity. But what exactly is he going to do differently?
Starmer won't be replaced by Burnham.
Confirmation comes from the New Statesman. The gist, an "NEC source" is making it clear that the Starmer-controlled NEC will probably (and more than coincidentally) move to require all women shortlists for parliamentary by-elections, conveniently scuppering Burnham's chances.
Link for the 2% here not scuppered by their paywall.
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
On thread, what Democrats also have going for them is that Trump still insists on digging an even bigger hole for himself by telling the US consumer that they've never had it so good and that lack of affordability is a fake news hoax etc etc.
The Big Lie tactic doesn't work so well when people can see for themselves that it is one.
The Dems should compare McDonalds prices now to when Trump did his photostunt there.
Sophy Ridge @SophyRidgeSky Donald Trump's $10bn claim against the BBC refers to Liz Truss 👀
"No less an authority than the United Kingdom’s former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, discussed this bias, the need to hold the BBC accountable, and the BBC’s pattern of actual malice"
"Every time I go to pull a lever, there are a whole bunch of regulations, consultations, arms-length bodies that mean the action from pulling the lever to delivery is longer than I think it ought to be"
If only he was the PM with a large majority, who might be in a position to actually do something about the regulatory and bureaucratic overload?
But he believes in the process. As do many in the government.
See the advisor quitting because not building fish discos that don’t save fish might upset the EU somehow.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: "We'd have to get clearances! Foreign powers, national interests. We have to consult our allies, top brass. NATO, SEATO, Moscow!"
Of course. But if he loves the process so much he has very little right to complain about it.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
Nah, no-one trusts or believes Trump, but it is still better for our leaders to publicly pretend that they do whilst in private making sure we have the capacity to defend ourselves without the US, and sadly even potentially against the US.
The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Depends whether your desk work involves busy work or whether it involves thinking. If others are also joining 10 minutes early then surely they will distract by talking to you or others
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Depends whether your desk work involves busy work or whether it involves thinking. If others are also joining 10 minutes early then surely they will distract by talking to you or others
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Depends whether your desk work involves busy work or whether it involves thinking. If others are also joining 10 minutes early then surely they will distract by talking to you or others
Mute, minimise window ...
And then your colleagues think you are rude…
(Speaking of which I am about to take off so I am not ignoring you 😉)
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Sophy Ridge @SophyRidgeSky Donald Trump's $10bn claim against the BBC refers to Liz Truss 👀
"No less an authority than the United Kingdom’s former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, discussed this bias, the need to hold the BBC accountable, and the BBC’s pattern of actual malice"
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
Indeed. The obvious and appropriate course of action is to be 10 minutes late whilst posting obscure commentary on a political blog instead. Make yourself look busy and important!
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
I defend to the death the right of colleagues I have never met to discuss their cats.
Seriously you should. Meetings should be focused on decisions and outcomes but people are social animals. Time spent on socialising is time well spent as long as it doesn't interfere with the job.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
I’ve always operated on the basis of “if you’re on time, you’re late”. You would always turn up to an in person meeting 5 minutes in advance at least, so it can start on time. Teams should be the same.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
I defend to the death the right of colleagues I have never met to discuss their cats.
Seriously you should. Meetings should be focused on decisions and outcomes but people are social animals. Time spent on socialising is time well spent as long as it doesn't interfere with the job.
Quite right. Above all when there is split site working, of the kind that happened at my organization. In that era it was a case of actual physical departmental meetings, which my boss rotated between sites as a basic point for morale reasons, plus he used to try and book the meetings just before coffee or lunch break anyway, which encouraged people to keep to time. But in that case people had to arrive a little early in case of traffic, which leads to your point. (Also such visits were useful for other small jobs that needed to be done at the meeting site without being particularly urgent.)
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
Aren't our torpedos already designed in such a way? If they miss they can u-turn and go for another attack.
And our naval bases have booms surrounding them. Surprised the Russians don't have something similar.
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
Nah, no-one trusts or believes Trump, but it is still better for our leaders to publicly pretend that they do whilst in private making sure we have the capacity to defend ourselves without the US, and sadly even potentially against the US.
The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.
They are worth bugger all. As the previous set of security guarantees demonstrated, and as Trump's behaviour has demonstrated beyond argument.
Anyone genuinely relying on the word of Witkoff or Trump shouldn't be allowed out on their own, let alone run a country.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
However, I genuinely struggle to understand what any of the other options can actually do that won’t put them back in exactly the same position.
If it’s entirely a comms issue that’s rather contrary to much (not all) of the criticism I read, that it is not that simple.
I personally don’t rate Burnham at all however he’s clearly got some popularity. But what exactly is he going to do differently?
Starmer won't be replaced by Burnham.
Confirmation comes from the New Statesman. The gist, an "NEC source" is making it clear that the Starmer-controlled NEC will probably (and more than coincidentally) move to require all women shortlists for parliamentary by-elections, conveniently scuppering Burnham's chances.
Link for the 2% here not scuppered by their paywall.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
Reading populist entertainment papers is is fairly normal I think for those who need to be in touch. There are numbers of vicars, for example, who read the Sun or the Mail.
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
Nah, no-one trusts or believes Trump, but it is still better for our leaders to publicly pretend that they do whilst in private making sure we have the capacity to defend ourselves without the US, and sadly even potentially against the US.
The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.
They are worth bugger all. As the previous set of security guarantees demonstrated, and as Trump's behaviour has demonstrated beyond argument.
Anyone genuinely relying on the word of Witkoff or Trump shouldn't be allowed out on their own, let alone run a country.
I'd put the chance of US military intervention without the guarantees at <5% and with guarantees at maybe 20% under Trump, <5% under Vance, and something like 50-60% under a subsequent Democrat or old school Republican President. The increase is far more than bugger all, even if clearly insufficient.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
I reckon undertaking will not be greatly impacted by AI. Aging population, lots of work...
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Yep I agree. Although I don't work now I attend meetings for campaigns I am involved in. It is pretty normal for key person to have problems logging in or microphone not working, or feedback etc and this has to be sorted before the meeting can start and if you have a tight slot you have lost meeting time. Log in 5 - 10 min early. get it all set up, mute and carry on with whatever you were doing. In my case going to the loo and making tea. Start promptly and then no time is wasted. How many of us have been involved in meetings that don't start on time because of issues?
So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
The Helsing system uses inertial navigation, but surfaces to satellite transmit data. For now, it's primarily intended to lighten the burden of peacetime maritime surveillance, I think.
But it's just the first of what is very likely to be many such systems.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.
There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.
I'm with you in saying bollocks to that. The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
There aren’t enough anti-satellite weapons ever made to take out even a couple of percent of mega constellations.
And no, you are not going to create a Kessler syndrome in low LEO.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
I wonder whether technology will soon progress to a point where cheap drones will soon render vulnerable large naval vessels obsolete, just as sea and land based air power was suddenly discovered to have rendered battleships obsolete. eg. sinking of the Prince of Wales in 1941.
And can the RN beg the cash needed for either offensive drone technology or effective defences against drone technology when so much of the naval budget has been wasted on acquiring and keeping operational two aircraft carriers which won't be safe from total loss even when in port? Maybe naming one those as the Prince of Wales was rather prescient.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
I very much doubt that. Consider how the RAF base at Brize Norton which had our air to air refuelling operation was broken into by normies with cans of spray paint with no problems whatsoever.
Some of our facilities have less protection than the fence around a Centre Parks holiday camp.
I don't think we even take prevention of drone overflights seriously, never mind things like dispersion and hardened shelters for aircraft.
And I don't see the navy being any different. I'm sure there is a survey article somewhere.
I am sure the MOD etc are what they can, but there are too many black holes to backfill - even in a department where the Tories got a few things reasonably right.
Poor economic news this morning but absolutely no surprise
Handing huge public sector pay rises whilst at the same time clobbering business with additional taxes and awarding massive increases in the minimum wage to young workers results in devastating employment and prospects especially for the young
Why would any business employ young workers when they can, for the same wage engage mature and experience staff
Labour often talk about Truss, but Starmer and Reeves have done far more long term damage to the economy and it will be very difficult to reverse
Add in the workers rights bill and the country can now see why ''Labour is not working'
The workers rights bill has largely been fixed. 6 months before full rights kick in is fine. Day 1 was worse than 2 years, but 6 months is better than both.
Most companies I know had a 3 month/6 month trial period and a review at the end of the trial to decide if the job was working out. This should now mean the end-of-trial review will become key to any continuation of employment. Makes sense to review after 3/6 months as it minimises the damage to the company from a poor performer or those unhappy in a role.
Oh great. My daughter helped draft that. [Buffs nails with pride.] Probably means she'll have some time free to see us this Christmas.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
General consensus is that most of the traditional trades will survive AI. It’ll be a while before robots are doing plumbing, electrics, HVAC, decorating etc.
Also, someone needs to fix the robots and maintain the computers.
Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.
Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
I recall how the USAF trained for bombing in the clear skies of the USA only to find that Europe in winter was typically 10/10ths cloud most of the time...
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
I reckon undertaking will not be greatly impacted by AI. Aging population, lots of work...
Poor economic news this morning but absolutely no surprise
Handing huge public sector pay rises whilst at the same time clobbering business with additional taxes and awarding massive increases in the minimum wage to young workers results in devastating employment and prospects especially for the young
Why would any business employ young workers when they can, for the same wage engage mature and experience staff
Labour often talk about Truss, but Starmer and Reeves have done far more long term damage to the economy and it will be very difficult to reverse
Add in the workers rights bill and the country can now see why ''Labour is not working'
The workers rights bill has largely been fixed. 6 months before full rights kick in is fine. Day 1 was worse than 2 years, but 6 months is better than both.
Most companies I know had a 3 month/6 month trial period and a review at the end of the trial to decide if the job was working out. This should now mean the end-of-trial review will become key to any continuation of employment. Makes sense to review after 3/6 months as it minimises the damage to the company from a poor performer or those unhappy in a role.
Oh great. My daughter helped draft that. [Buffs nails with pride.] Probably means she'll have some time free to see us this Christmas.
In the US, some companies ditched the ever increasing number of rounds of interviews. One interview to get a guesstimate of usefulness, 3 month contract as probation followed (or not) by a permanent role.
Generally received well - both by potential employees and the people working with new hires.
So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.
There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.
I'm with you in saying bollocks to that. The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
I'd rather see the BBC go 'bankrupt' and a new company emerge - the BCB (Broadcasting Company of Britain). Than give Trump a single penny.
Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.
Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.
Poor economic news this morning but absolutely no surprise
Handing huge public sector pay rises whilst at the same time clobbering business with additional taxes and awarding massive increases in the minimum wage to young workers results in devastating employment and prospects especially for the young
Why would any business employ young workers when they can, for the same wage engage mature and experience staff
Labour often talk about Truss, but Starmer and Reeves have done far more long term damage to the economy and it will be very difficult to reverse
Add in the workers rights bill and the country can now see why ''Labour is not working'
The workers rights bill has largely been fixed. 6 months before full rights kick in is fine. Day 1 was worse than 2 years, but 6 months is better than both.
Most companies I know had a 3 month/6 month trial period and a review at the end of the trial to decide if the job was working out. This should now mean the end-of-trial review will become key to any continuation of employment. Makes sense to review after 3/6 months as it minimises the damage to the company from a poor performer or those unhappy in a role.
Oh great. My daughter helped draft that. [Buffs nails with pride.] Probably means she'll have some time free to see us this Christmas.
In the US, some companies ditched the ever increasing number of rounds of interviews. One interview to get a guesstimate of usefulness, 3 month contract as probation followed (or not) by a permanent role.
Generally received well - both by potential employees and the people working with new hires.
In some areas Starbucks have the principle of first person to ask about the job gets it...
So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.
They already crowd fund. A custodial sentence possible for on-compliance.
Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.
Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.
Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?
We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.
On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.
“He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.
I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.
But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.
So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
Another thing to note from the discussion is how easily people accept stats that are fairly obviously misleading if they fit their preconceived direction of travel. We can all be guilty of that so should remember to apply the equivalent of caveat emptor when requoting stuff.
I used to know a (Danish) supreme court judge who deliberately read a newspaper that he disagreed with, so as to combat his instinctive biases. I've tried it and it's quite difficult - you stumble over the alien assumptions rather than just get a balanced overall view. I really liked the idea of the Independent, but it hasn't worked out - just a vaguely centrist but government-criticial paper.
Is that the online only Independent or the i Nick? Note that the i is now owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust.
I'd missed that! I meant the Independent, then. Like many people I've stopped reading any physical newspaper, to the point that I scratch my head when looking for something to pad a Christmas parcel.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
I reckon undertaking will not be greatly impacted by AI. Aging population, lots of work...
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.
Oh...
I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
It is the annual change in earnings - those things change pretty slowly, and if anything whilst there still is a gap it is closing over time.
But there is still a gap there and it merits consideration as part of the total package.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.
Oh...
I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.
Something the debate misses.
Something that quite a lot of people who work in the public sector miss. Because many people don’t really think about and compare their pension.
add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.
How long did you work in the public sector Malc?
6 years Ben , and it was a wheeze , pub most days , great expenses and you had all the time in the world for your own pursuits as the time to do jobs was incredible.
The public sector was very different in the 1950s.
So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.
There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.
I'm with you in saying bollocks to that. The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.
Oh...
I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.
Something the debate misses.
Something that quite a lot of people who work in the public sector miss. Because many people don’t really think about and compare their pension.
One of the reasons I turned down a job a decade ago was that the pension they offered was NEST and the other place offered 6% up to 9% contribution and extra holiday accumulation over ten years.
People don’t consider it and should. Also in the private sector when considering roles.
The most striking drop actually seems to be for Shabana Mahmood. I suppose it was inevitable after her getting warm applause from PB Tories.
Adam Payne @adampayne26 Andy Burnham’s approval among Labour members has dropped 31% since March, finds @Survation polling for @LabourList The fall appears to have accelerated post party conference That said, Burnham is still on +54%, second only to Miliband and much higher than Starmer
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.
Oh...
I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.
Something the debate misses.
You make a valid point, and we do have to bear it in mind. My daughter gets 5 more days' leave than I get, and additional flexi-days that I don't get, and perhaps a better % of pension (though not as good for recent starters as it used to be and the Telegraph/Mail like to pretend still is). We might all value those differently, but her view is that she'd rather have the extra £10k or so now that a private sector equivalent job might pay. Personally I would probably be happy enough to work in the Civil Service if the headline salary was 10-15% lower. The problem is, in my field, it's more like 30%, perhaps more.
Just heard about a meeting Trump had with the late Queen.
Trump said “I would like to be a King” Liz replied “Sorry Donald you do not live in a Kingdom, you live in the USA”. “Well can you make me a Prince then?" “Sorry Donald you do no live in a Princedom so you cannot be a Prince, however Donald, you do live in a country.”
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.
Oh...
I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.
Something the debate misses.
You make a valid point, and we do have to bear it in mind. My daughter gets 5 more days' leave than I get, and additional flexi-days that I don't get, and perhaps a better % of pension (though not as good for recent starters as it used to be and the Telegraph/Mail like to pretend still is). We might all value those differently, but her view is that she'd rather have the extra £10k or so now that a private sector equivalent job might pay. Personally I would probably be happy enough to work in the Civil Service if the headline salary was 10-15% lower. The problem is, in my field, it's more like 30%, perhaps more.
I was fortunate that by the time I ended my working life I was getting 30 days plus bank holidays in my private sector job and if I paid more into the pension pot they rebated the employer NIC element.
The salary was a little lower than the other job but it was the better terms and being a twenty five minute bike ride from home that helped.
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
Nah, no-one trusts or believes Trump, but it is still better for our leaders to publicly pretend that they do whilst in private making sure we have the capacity to defend ourselves without the US, and sadly even potentially against the US.
The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.
They are worth bugger all. As the previous set of security guarantees demonstrated, and as Trump's behaviour has demonstrated beyond argument.
Anyone genuinely relying on the word of Witkoff or Trump shouldn't be allowed out on their own, let alone run a country.
I'd put the chance of US military intervention without the guarantees at < 5% and with guarantees at maybe 20% under Trump, < 5% under Vance, and something like 50-60% under a subsequent Democrat or old school Republican President. The increase is far more than bugger all, even if clearly insufficient.
I'd put it at 0-5% while the current administration is in office; and I reckon US guarantees are irrelevant to that calculation. They are actively favouring Russia in negotiations now.
What might happen in 2029 is both unknown and fairly distant.
Just heard about a meeting Trump had with the late Queen.
Trump said “I would like to be a King” Liz replied “Sorry Donald you do not live in a Kingdom, you live in the USA”. “Well can you make me a Prince then?" “Sorry Donald you do no live in a Princedom so you cannot be a Prince, however Donald, you do live in a country.”
In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
Nah, no-one trusts or believes Trump, but it is still better for our leaders to publicly pretend that they do whilst in private making sure we have the capacity to defend ourselves without the US, and sadly even potentially against the US.
The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.
They are worth bugger all. As the previous set of security guarantees demonstrated, and as Trump's behaviour has demonstrated beyond argument.
Anyone genuinely relying on the word of Witkoff or Trump shouldn't be allowed out on their own, let alone run a country.
I'd put the chance of US military intervention without the guarantees at < 5% and with guarantees at maybe 20% under Trump, < 5% under Vance, and something like 50-60% under a subsequent Democrat or old school Republican President. The increase is far more than bugger all, even if clearly insufficient.
I'd put it at 0-5% while the current administration is in office; and I reckon US guarantees are irrelevant to that calculation. They are actively favouring Russia in negotiations now.
What might happen in 2029 is both unknown and fairly distant.
The public reaction of the US offering a guarantee and then Russia ignoring it to restart the war within Trumps presidency would be hard for Trump's ego to take. Whilst he is currently pro Russia, he is also unreliable, unpredictable and heavily driven by ego. Happier that 20% is a better guess than <5% in that scenario.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.
NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).
.... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...
So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.
There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?
Lies, dammed lies and statistics comes to mind but you start to see where the extra tax income generated at the budget is going.
The majority of that additional tax is going to fiscal headroom, which is something to be encouraged imo - would have been tempting to spend it.
About 10% in going on two-child limit, then you've got additional funding for SEND, NHS drugs, asylum system, cuts to energy bills. The public sector wage increases were in the last budget.
You can try and dress it up however you like , "Fiscal Headroom" is just pyscho babble. It is being squandered on welfare increases and we will still liekly borrow even more money.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?
There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.
Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.
Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.
The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.
Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.
Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?
We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.
On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.
“He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.
I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.
But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.
So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
There's some betting crying out to be had by you if you give SKS a 90% chance of getting through to the election. The market has it more like 25%.
Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.
We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory
A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.
I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.
Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.
Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.
Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.
I wonder whether technology will soon progress to a point where cheap drones will soon render vulnerable large naval vessels obsolete, just as sea and land based air power was suddenly discovered to have rendered battleships obsolete. eg. sinking of the Prince of Wales in 1941.
And can the RN beg the cash needed for either offensive drone technology or effective defences against drone technology when so much of the naval budget has been wasted on acquiring and keeping operational two aircraft carriers which won't be safe from total loss even when in port? Maybe naming one those as the Prince of Wales was rather prescient.
There was an interesting interview yesterday on Today with a chap who runs a university in Herefordshire which seemed from the conversation to focus on engineering and they do their courses in two years and all very practical work.
The interview was about a new course they have started in conjunction with the Army (I assume this wasn’t shorthand for the military and hope any knowledge is shared across all services) purely focussed on new military drone technology. Their success rate according to the interviewee was very high in their students going straight into good engineering jobs and so this shows promise and some good innovative approaches.
I couldn’t work out how much the MOD was funding or supporting but projects like this are great and hope it multiplies. Maybe Portsmouth Uni can set up and engineering course purely working with the RN on sea drone tech if they aren’t already.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.
NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?
I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.
Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).
.... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...
So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.
There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?
Lies, dammed lies and statistics comes to mind but you start to see where the extra tax income generated at the budget is going.
The majority of that additional tax is going to fiscal headroom, which is something to be encouraged imo - would have been tempting to spend it.
About 10% in going on two-child limit, then you've got additional funding for SEND, NHS drugs, asylum system, cuts to energy bills. The public sector wage increases were in the last budget.
You can try and dress it up however you like , "Fiscal Headroom" is just pyscho babble. It is being squandered on welfare increases and we will still liekly borrow even more money.
He’s just drinking the Labour Comms Kool-Aid.
Fiscal Headroom is meaningless especially given many of the tax increases are baked in for later in the parliament. Will stuff like the so called mansion tax even happen.
Apart from public sector spending and public sector employment we have very little growth at all.
The productive economy, we rely on, to fund public services. Which in turn support the productive economy. However there’s a disconnect. This govt is hopeless.
"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."
It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.
No, it is a timing issue in the stats.
It also fails to take account of the total package.
Pay is a part of it.
As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.
That needs factorinf too.
Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.
Oh...
I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.
Something the debate misses.
Something that quite a lot of people who work in the public sector miss. Because many people don’t really think about and compare their pension.
One of the reasons I turned down a job a decade ago was that the pension they offered was NEST and the other place offered 6% up to 9% contribution and extra holiday accumulation over ten years.
People don’t consider it and should. Also in the private sector when considering roles.
I used to work in the public sector, and I've since moved to work in the private sector.
If I was still working for the public sector I wouldn't have been able to afford to buy a house, so I would have to rent indefinitely, and a better pension wouldn't make up for the cost of renting when retired.
It's standard economics to discount future earnings because money now can get you a return that is greater than nominally the same money later. That's actually why it makes sense for the public sector to offer good defined benefit pensions - it should be cheaper to provide that pension money later than to pay out the money now as earnings, or defined contribution pensions.
Offering good public sector pensions actually gets you public sector workers at a discount - but for some reason it's a target of hate for Righties.
OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-
Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link. ... Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.
So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.
How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly
Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.
Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.
I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.
I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.
The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
The idiot version of prepping involves guns and is usually MAGA fuckwit associated.
Keeping a supply of canned goods (plus pasta and rice) in the home, bottled water etc is pretty sensible. As is having a medical kit and some proper masks.
Comments
About 10% in going on two-child limit, then you've got additional funding for SEND, NHS drugs, asylum system, cuts to energy bills. The public sector wage increases were in the last budget.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2025/trump-democratic-policies-midterms-polling/
When it’s a Republican plan to subsidize home purchases, Trump voters support it and Harris voters don’t and vice versa:
Republican plan: Republicans approve 63% Democrats 31%
Same plan but Demorcrat: Democrats approve 55% Republicans 31%
So about a quarter to a third of voters are paying more attention to whether their leaders approve the idea than considering the idea.
In the original version, the Independent was genuinely independent. Lasted a year or two in that form IIRC.
Most modern meetings seem to resemble pages 28-32 of the Strategic Services’ Simple Sabotage Field Manual.
* BBC Derangement Syndrome.
I suspect the only chance of a face saving deal is if Putin is replaced by someone less invested in the original Special Military Operation decision AND Russia is hurting more than it currently is. Which also implies a continuation of fighting unfortunately.
However, I genuinely struggle to understand what any of the other options can actually do that won’t put them back in exactly the same position.
If it’s entirely a comms issue that’s rather contrary to much (not all) of the criticism I read, that it is not that simple.
I personally don’t rate Burnham at all however he’s clearly got some popularity. But what exactly is he going to do differently?
In 2025 Poland believes:
Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2000829722834714678?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
The Big Lie tactic doesn't work so well when people can see for themselves that it is one.
Confirmation comes from the New Statesman. The gist, an "NEC source" is making it clear that the Starmer-controlled NEC will probably (and more than coincidentally) move to require all women shortlists for parliamentary by-elections, conveniently scuppering Burnham's chances.
Link for the 2% here not scuppered by their paywall.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/12/andy-burnham-may-be-blocked-from-parliament-by-gender-balance-rules
Also
Lololololol
Sophy Ridge
@SophyRidgeSky
Donald Trump's $10bn claim against the BBC refers to Liz Truss 👀
"No less an authority than the United Kingdom’s former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, discussed this bias, the need to hold the BBC accountable, and the BBC’s pattern of actual malice"
Spotted by @olivermiocic
https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/2000814925384712530?s=20
Your sacrifice in breaking cover is noted.
I'm not sure if there is a convincing explanation for the cause.
The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.
https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779
Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.
(Speaking of which I am about to take off so I am not ignoring you 😉)
Seriously you should. Meetings should be focused on decisions and outcomes but people are social animals. Time spent on socialising is time well spent as long as it doesn't interfere with the job.
One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!
“No less an authority than the United Kingdom’s former Prime Minister, Liz Truss”
That’s a real sentence that someone wrote, which made it into Trump’s legal filing.
https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3ma3s5k6rik26
And our naval bases have booms surrounding them. Surprised the Russians don't have something similar.
As the previous set of security guarantees demonstrated, and as Trump's behaviour has demonstrated beyond argument.
Anyone genuinely relying on the word of Witkoff or Trump shouldn't be allowed out on their own, let alone run a country.
On another subject, I've now fully retired, after AI largely destroyed the lucrative translation business, and wondering what to recommend teenage relatives to study that won't suffer the same fate in 10-20 years. Should they take up a trade involving handwork? Default seems to be to take something vague like psychology on the basis that there will be jobs in that general space. I notice that several universities have stopped offering language degrees...
A woman allowed to wear trousers in the US media - WTF happened?
Surely politicians do likewise?
But it's just the first of what is very likely to be many such systems.
They expect their President to kick ass, like Rambo. Instead, they have a President who kisses ass, like Willie Loman.
I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.
And no, you are not going to create a Kessler syndrome in low LEO.
And can the RN beg the cash needed for either offensive drone technology or effective defences against drone technology when so much of the naval budget has been wasted on acquiring and keeping operational two aircraft carriers which won't be safe from total loss even when in port? Maybe naming one those as the Prince of Wales was rather prescient.
Some of our facilities have less protection than the fence around a Centre Parks holiday camp.
I don't think we even take prevention of drone overflights seriously, never mind things like dispersion and hardened shelters for aircraft.
And I don't see the navy being any different. I'm sure there is a survey article somewhere.
I am sure the MOD etc are what they can, but there are too many black holes to backfill - even in a department where the Tories got a few things reasonably right.
Also, someone needs to fix the robots and maintain the computers.
Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.
Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.
https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2000865177571614916?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I think that about 80-90% of readers here would be able to do a more competent vodcast.
Generally received well - both by potential employees and the people working with new hires.
Let them be taken for every penny they have.
On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.
“He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.
I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.
But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.
So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.
“Bastard AI drones have taken both my jobs.”
Something the debate misses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opDEUX7MI7c
People don’t consider it and should. Also in the private sector when considering roles.
Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Andy Burnham’s approval among Labour members has dropped 31% since March, finds @Survation
polling for @LabourList
The fall appears to have accelerated post party conference
That said, Burnham is still on +54%, second only to Miliband and much higher than Starmer
https://x.com/adampayne26/status/2000859598966940069?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Trump said “I would like to be a King”
Liz replied “Sorry Donald you do not live in a Kingdom, you live in the USA”.
“Well can you make me a Prince then?"
“Sorry Donald you do no live in a Princedom so you cannot be a Prince, however Donald, you do live in a country.”
The salary was a little lower than the other job but it was the better terms and being a twenty five minute bike ride from home that helped.
They are actively favouring Russia in negotiations now.
What might happen in 2029 is both unknown and fairly distant.
Try the fish
Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.
The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.
The interview was about a new course they have started in conjunction with the Army (I assume this wasn’t shorthand for the military and hope any knowledge is shared across all services) purely focussed on new military drone technology. Their success rate according to the interviewee was very high in their students going straight into good engineering jobs and so this shows promise and some good innovative approaches.
I couldn’t work out how much the MOD was funding or supporting but projects like this are great and hope it multiplies. Maybe Portsmouth Uni can set up and engineering course purely working with the RN on sea drone tech if they aren’t already.
Fiscal Headroom is meaningless especially given many of the tax increases are baked in for later in the parliament. Will stuff like the so called mansion tax even happen.
Apart from public sector spending and public sector employment we have very little growth at all.
The productive economy, we rely on, to fund public services. Which in turn support the productive economy. However there’s a disconnect. This govt is hopeless.
@PolliticoUK
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:
➡️ REF: 28% (+1)
🌹 LAB: 18% (-1)
🌳 CON: 17% (-1)
🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
From
@YouGov
From 14th - 15th December
Changes with 8th December"
https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2000857671285793247
If I was still working for the public sector I wouldn't have been able to afford to buy a house, so I would have to rent indefinitely, and a better pension wouldn't make up for the cost of renting when retired.
It's standard economics to discount future earnings because money now can get you a return that is greater than nominally the same money later. That's actually why it makes sense for the public sector to offer good defined benefit pensions - it should be cheaper to provide that pension money later than to pay out the money now as earnings, or defined contribution pensions.
Offering good public sector pensions actually gets you public sector workers at a discount - but for some reason it's a target of hate for Righties.
The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.
Keeping a supply of canned goods (plus pasta and rice) in the home, bottled water etc is pretty sensible. As is having a medical kit and some proper masks.