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Meanwhile in America – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,832
edited 7:01AM in General
Meanwhile in America – politicalbetting.com

Breaking News: Miami voters elected Eileen Higgins as mayor, choosing a Democrat to lead the city for the first time in almost 30 years. https://t.co/JltWC1jUmL

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,067
    edited 7:03AM
    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,460
    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,012
    Where's the market on the midterms being cancelled?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,121
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,012
    Are there exit polls with voter demographic breakdowns?
    I'm guessing that the Hispanic demographic in Miami deserted the GOP.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    why would it be impossible , just stop them entering British waters, they would soon get fed up, or send them direct to the farthest off island you can and dump them there, tents only and same food day after day. Not be long till it stops.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,291
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.

    I would never have hoped for the obliteration of the Republicans, till recently.

    But, following the previous header, and that national security document, this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy.
    "... this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy" - so far.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,824
    edited 7:28AM
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    why would it be impossible , just stop them entering British waters, they would soon get fed up, or send them direct to the farthest off island you can and dump them there, tents only and same food day after day. Not be long till it stops.
    Turnips, malcy. Month after month of turnips.

    They'll be begging for a single ticket to France.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,273
    edited 7:35AM
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.

    I would never have hoped for the obliteration of the Republicans, till recently.

    But, following the previous header, and that national security document, this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy.
    Farage's best friends, apart from the Russians of course.

    It couldn't happen here? It is about to.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,858
    Worth noting 41 House members have already announced they will be retiring at the midterms - 22 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
    So even if the midterms were cancelled that’s an awful lot of Special Elections.
    And likely more retirements are still to be announced.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,824
    edited 7:43AM
    The death of the Republican Party can be timed to the point when they allowed the likes of Hegseth, Noem, Bondi, Patel, RFK Jnr to be waived through vetting. They KNEW what they were going to be like - look at the questioining they put them under. But even then, they rolled over.

    They deserve to be scrubbed clean. Large numbers are said to be about to quit. Their consciences - and maybe interaction with voters - have finally said enough is enough. Staying on until November might keep the Speaker in place. But that might be even worse than departing for a special election - sitting in Congress until November gives them nearly a year to freely lambast the Administration.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,824
    MikeL said:

    Worth noting 41 House members have already announced they will be retiring at the midterms - 22 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
    So even if the midterms were cancelled that’s an awful lot of Special Elections.
    And likely more retirements are still to be announced.

    I haven't studied the lists, but there are/were an awful lot of old/very old Democrats who really needed moving on. Plenty of scope for new blood.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,005
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.

    I would never have hoped for the obliteration of the Republicans, till recently.

    But, following the previous header, and that national security document, this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy.
    Farage's best friends, apart from the Russians of course.

    It couldn't happen here? It is about to.
    The rise of Reform, and the Greens, is concerning. Not that I'm thrilled about Labour. But they do actually seem to understand that Russia's not our friend.
    Nor is Kemi a Kommie.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.

    I would never have hoped for the obliteration of the Republicans, till recently.

    But, following the previous header, and that national security document, this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy.
    Farage's best friends, apart from the Russians of course.

    It couldn't happen here? It is about to.
    I note the French far right leader was yesterday praising the new US national security policy, which is actively hostile to European security.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,460
    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    Yes. Or to a third country that is further away from their preferred destination than where they started from, hence Rwanda.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,012
    edited 7:54AM
    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,960
    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting 41 House members have already announced they will be retiring at the midterms - 22 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
    So even if the midterms were cancelled that’s an awful lot of Special Elections.
    And likely more retirements are still to be announced.

    I haven't studied the lists, but there are/were an awful lot of old/very old Democrats who really needed moving on. Plenty of scope for new blood.
    Funny you should mention blood.

    You know that line from Macbeth,

    I am in blood stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, returning were as tedious as go o'er

    The Administration passed that point some time ago, as did the Republican Party. I don't see them talking midterm defeats on the chin.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,215
    The Mad King roadtested his economic message for the midterms at a Klan rally last night

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "You can give up certain products. You could give up pencils. Because under the China policy, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need 1 or 2. They don't need that many. You always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. 2 or 3 is nice. So we're doing things right."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7lva6yxix25

    Also did his best to scotch rumours that he shared Epstein's interest in young girls

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump on Karoline Leavitt: "That beautiful face and those lips that don't stop like a little machine gun"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    .
    Stuartinromford said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting 41 House members have already announced they will be retiring at the midterms - 22 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
    So even if the midterms were cancelled that’s an awful lot of Special Elections.
    And likely more retirements are still to be announced.

    I haven't studied the lists, but there are/were an awful lot of old/very old Democrats who really needed moving on. Plenty of scope for new blood.
    Funny you should mention blood.

    You know that line from Macbeth,

    I am in blood stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, returning were as tedious as go o'er

    The Administration passed that point some time ago, as did the Republican Party. I don't see them talking midterm defeats on the chin.
    It's become bloody tedious, certainly.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,506
    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,215
    Cicero said:

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    He pitched his 3rd term at the batshit rally last night.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,045
    DavidL said:

    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.

    Or he goes even more batshit as he tries to soak the republic for every cent
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,012
    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    He pitched his 3rd term at the batshit rally last night.
    A wish is not a claim upon reality.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,121
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    Yes. Or to a third country that is further away from their preferred destination than where they started from, hence Rwanda.
    Rwanda and simple logistics meant they were never going to receive the 30000 it would require for the message to get out and work
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,045
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Even Americans have had enough.

    Blue wave incoming after which Trump may be a lame duck President. We can only hope.

    I would never have hoped for the obliteration of the Republicans, till recently.

    But, following the previous header, and that national security document, this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy.
    "... this is as close as we have to an anti-Western, neo-Nazi party, in charge of a democracy" - so far.

    Good morning, everyone.
    It’s not yet morning in America
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,506
    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    A Republican gerrymander just backfired in Georgia. Despite splitting Athens into three conservative-leaning districts, Democrats flipped Trump+12 GA HD-121 — turning one of those engineered red seats blue tonight.
    https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/1998575604543705217

    Unless there's a huge wave next year, that special election is likely to be reversed, and the GOP would likely anyway take two out of the three seats.
    But it's an illustration of what might happen where the gerrymander creates less safety margin elsewhere (eg Texas).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,824
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    It is going to be ironic if America doesn't hold elections - but Ukraine does...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,960
    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    He's saying what he has to say to get through the day.

    Obviously, some Western leader needs to call Trump out for what he is, but it's in nobody's interest to be first, and there's nobody in Europe who can afford to be on the receiving end of a Trump tantrum.

    Why do you think he has such a downer on European unity?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,273
    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    The new proposals for getting a US visa waiver are pretty draconian.

    I don't think that I will be visiting Trumpistan for a while.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/travel/social-media-tourists-visa-border-patrol.html?unlocked_article_code=1.7k8.Jytd.OxeH-dyCBD-p&smid=nytcore-ios-share
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    His replacement has similar instincts, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,120
    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,215
    Nigelb said:

    His replacement has similar instincts, though.

    Vance has more of a problem holding on to the Klan vote, unless he gets a divorce
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King roadtested his economic message for the midterms at a Klan rally last night

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "You can give up certain products. You could give up pencils. Because under the China policy, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need 1 or 2. They don't need that many. You always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. 2 or 3 is nice. So we're doing things right."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7lva6yxix25

    Also did his best to scotch rumours that he shared Epstein's interest in young girls

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump on Karoline Leavitt: "That beautiful face and those lips that don't stop like a little machine gun"

    Creepy grandpa.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,273
    Stuartinromford said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    He's saying what he has to say to get through the day.

    Obviously, some Western leader needs to call Trump out for what he is, but it's in nobody's interest to be first, and there's nobody in Europe who can afford to be on the receiving end of a Trump tantrum.

    Why do you think he has such a downer on European unity?
    Yes, the best approach to the mad king is flattery. It is like trying to stay out of the way of Caligula.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,444
    FPT…
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly there's an unpublished version of the US Nat Sec document.

    This report says there is a longer internal version of the NSS that gets into more detail on weakening the EU. It also proposes a new grouping of countries called the C5— US, China, Russia, Japan, and India— that’s not hemmed in by G7 rules. No Euro representation unless you count Russia.
    https://x.com/thomaswright08/status/1998499602220425474

    If the US administration were run by Russian agents, it could not be doing a better job.

    (I hope this report is untrue.
    We'll see.)

    I note that the UK is excluded, and Russia (with an economy a fraction the size of the UK) is excluded.

    Fuck 'em.

    The best way to make sure that this withers on the vine is for the Europeans (including the UK) Ukraine, and to ensure that Russia is defeated.
    That would require European leaders to show some leadership.

    And you're never going to get that from Starmer, Macron and Tusk.

    Their successors will likely be even less willing to stand up to Trump or Putin.
    Well, if their successors are Farage and Le Pen, then, yes, they will be less willing to stand up to Trump or Putin.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    Yes, I've been boring on about it for a few days now.

    Even the Guardian has caught on.

    New Trump doctrine identifies ‘weak’ Europe’s problem: not enough racism
    A new US national security strategy represents one of the most profound crises for the Atlantic alliance since 1945
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/09/trump-europe-national-security-strategy

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,120
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    He's saying what he has to say to get through the day.

    Obviously, some Western leader needs to call Trump out for what he is, but it's in nobody's interest to be first, and there's nobody in Europe who can afford to be on the receiving end of a Trump tantrum.

    Why do you think he has such a downer on European unity?
    Yes, the best approach to the mad king is flattery. It is like trying to stay out of the way of Caligula.
    Idea.

    The King creates the honour of the First Gentleman Of The Privy. Complete with a uniform completely made of gold braid, with a gold chain etc.

    Straight swap for Ukraine policy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    He's saying what he has to say to get through the day.

    Obviously, some Western leader needs to call Trump out for what he is, but it's in nobody's interest to be first, and there's nobody in Europe who can afford to be on the receiving end of a Trump tantrum.

    Why do you think he has such a downer on European unity?
    Yes, the best approach to the mad king is flattery. It is like trying to stay out of the way of Caligula.
    I disagree.
    We are long past that, and it's time to push back. Trump is now actively undermining our security.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    The President suggests it’s treasonous for people to say he’s in poor physical health
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1998578171277684931


    Donald Trump is in poor physical health.
    https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/1998614487566582218
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,506
    Foxy said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    I've only dipped in and out on here for a while - did we cover the Trump regime siding with Russia over Europe?

    America and Europe were on the same side for 80 years, liberal democracies defended against autocracy. And now America wants to overthrow European liberal democracies in favour of autocracies.

    When that wazzock Starmer parrots the line about America being our closest ally, is he stupid? Or just hoping that MTG leads the rebellion against the American fascist revolution?

    The new proposals for getting a US visa waiver are pretty draconian.

    I don't think that I will be visiting Trumpistan for a while.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/travel/social-media-tourists-visa-border-patrol.html?unlocked_article_code=1.7k8.Jytd.OxeH-dyCBD-p&smid=nytcore-ios-share
    Elon and the happy clappers foam on about free speech dying in Europe. But they want 5 years of social media vetting to get you into Gilead...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,506
    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,016
    edited 8:25AM
    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    Certainly looks like good results for the Democrats last night, primarily caused by rising cost of living. Given Miami narrowly went for Harris last year though, the GA HD 121 result looks even better as Trump won that by 12%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,291
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Presumably to try and stop him providing intelligence to Russia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,527
    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,291
    Incidentally, we shouldn't be smug/complacent. Not least because jury trials have been almost entirely abolished. Just a step away from that to having a political/patriotic officer or directly appointed judge/magistrate.

    I'm not expecting that to occur. But it's not impossible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    edited 8:29AM
    bondegezou said:

    FPT…

    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly there's an unpublished version of the US Nat Sec document.

    This report says there is a longer internal version of the NSS that gets into more detail on weakening the EU. It also proposes a new grouping of countries called the C5— US, China, Russia, Japan, and India— that’s not hemmed in by G7 rules. No Euro representation unless you count Russia.
    https://x.com/thomaswright08/status/1998499602220425474

    If the US administration were run by Russian agents, it could not be doing a better job.

    (I hope this report is untrue.
    We'll see.)

    I note that the UK is excluded, and Russia (with an economy a fraction the size of the UK) is excluded.

    Fuck 'em.

    The best way to make sure that this withers on the vine is for the Europeans (including the UK) Ukraine, and to ensure that Russia is defeated.
    That would require European leaders to show some leadership.

    And you're never going to get that from Starmer, Macron and Tusk.

    Their successors will likely be even less willing to stand up to Trump or Putin.
    Well, if their successors are Farage and Le Pen, then, yes, they will be less willing to stand up to Trump or Putin.
    Same with the AfD but of course on the swing last night the next US President might well be a Democrat anyway
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,527
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    There will definitely be elections. Even Putin still has elections.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,444
    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    I am definitely not presuming the constitution will save the day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    Malmesbury said:

    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
    The Senate could flip too, certainly polls show even Texas' Senate seat in 2026 could flip if the GOP pick Paxton
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,215
    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    Inertia is the only thing keeping the Mad King in place

    @mynamehear.bsky.social‬

    Trump is an infirm, sundowning grifter owned by a collection of notorious criminals and it's not even a secret. If this were a functioning country we would have already ended this.

    https://bsky.app/profile/mynamehear.bsky.social/post/3m7lb3wikt223

    The constitution has already failed, but the people who can stop this don't want to. Yet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,831
    Malmesbury said:

    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
    I'll believe it when I hear it from an objective source with the analysis.

    We all live in the UK (and the European continent, more broadly) so I'm yet to be convinced enough Americans see him in the way we do - they might simply not care.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    edited 8:34AM
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    It's not impossible, but I think it's unlikely they have sufficient control of federal forces to get them to behave illegally on that scale.
    There would be too much resistance for them to get away with it.

    That is, I think, the rationale behind the creation of ICE, but it's both incompetent and massively unpopular.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    HYUFD said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
    The Senate could flip too, certainly polls show even Texas' Senate seat in 2026 could flip if the GOP pick Paxton
    If the Dems pick Crockett, then that's far less likely.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,124
    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    There is also a natural "head in the sand" approach when we have to contemplate not just our defence is fundamentally linked to the USA, but they also have about half of our investments and pensions.

    It is just too scary to deal with.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,215
    @thestudyofwar.bsky.social‬

    2/ The Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort aims to achieve several of Putin’s original war aims through a negotiated settlement, as Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield.

    @cerianbond.bsky.social‬

    The number one target for this cognitive warfare is the White House, which has been completely conquered, it seems. Russia has not been able to conquer Ukraine, however, by cognitive or kinetic means. Europe must learn from Ukraine’s resilience.

    https://bsky.app/profile/cerianbond.bsky.social/post/3m7miyl5wns2i
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting 41 House members have already announced they will be retiring at the midterms - 22 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
    So even if the midterms were cancelled that’s an awful lot of Special Elections.
    And likely more retirements are still to be announced.

    I haven't studied the lists, but there are/were an awful lot of old/very old Democrats who really needed moving on. Plenty of scope for new blood.
    It is hard to believe the state of some of them , seems they get elected and the idiots vote for them till they keel over regardless of whether they are still in control of their faculties or not.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,124
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
    The Senate could flip too, certainly polls show even Texas' Senate seat in 2026 could flip if the GOP pick Paxton
    If the Dems pick Crockett, then that's far less likely.
    They should run Crockett against Tubbs in Alabama instead.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    bondegezou said:

    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    I am definitely not presuming the constitution will save the day.
    Given they have been trashing it since elected, aided and abetted by their creatures in the SC I agree.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,648
    malcolmg said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting 41 House members have already announced they will be retiring at the midterms - 22 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
    So even if the midterms were cancelled that’s an awful lot of Special Elections.
    And likely more retirements are still to be announced.

    I haven't studied the lists, but there are/were an awful lot of old/very old Democrats who really needed moving on. Plenty of scope for new blood.
    It is hard to believe the state of some of them , seems they get elected and the idiots vote for them till they keel over regardless of whether they are still in control of their faculties or not.
    Jerrymandering. The vast majority of House seats are safe seats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,303
    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    No, I think it's rather that the democratic habit is far more deeply ingrained in American culture than either of those examples.

    With another few years of Trump and a GOP majority in Congress, then I'd have little confidence in the future of US democracy.
    He, and those around him will do all they can to subvert next year's elections, I have no doubt.

    But while I'm not certain about it, I don't think they will succeed.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,816
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    why would it be impossible , just stop them entering British waters, they would soon get fed up, or send them direct to the farthest off island you can and dump them there, tents only and same food day after day. Not be long till it stops.
    Unst? Could work...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,960
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    Selebian said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    why would it be impossible , just stop them entering British waters, they would soon get fed up, or send them direct to the farthest off island you can and dump them there, tents only and same food day after day. Not be long till it stops.
    Unst? Could work...
    Must be a few good ones where after a few weeks they would be begging for a ticket to anywhere.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,831
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Because if they piss him off more he will tell Starmer, Macron and the German one, etc. to stop giving anything to Ukraine and they will dutifully obey. If you think they wouldn't you are fucking kidding yourself.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,816
    edited 8:46AM
    Casino_Royale said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
    I'll believe it when I hear it from an objective source with the analysis.

    We all live in the UK (and the European continent, more broadly) so I'm yet to be convinced enough Americans see him in the way we do - they might simply not care.
    Agree. It was plausible, from here, that they could elect Trump in 2016. It was utterly implausible, from here, that they could elect Trump again in 2024 having seen him in action. But they did.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    Selebian said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    why would it be impossible , just stop them entering British waters, they would soon get fed up, or send them direct to the farthest off island you can and dump them there, tents only and same food day after day. Not be long till it stops.
    Unst? Could work...
    Bit rough on the 600+ that live there though, I was thinking more remote than that
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    Dura_Ace said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Because if they piss him off more he will tell Starmer, Macron and the German one, etc. to stop giving anything to Ukraine and they will dutifully obey. If you think they wouldn't you are fucking kidding yourself.
    Must be at least one in Europe with a backbone who can tell him where to go.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,816
    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    While I don't like until you have something like a 90% chance of them ending up where they started it's going to be impossible to stop the boats.
    why would it be impossible , just stop them entering British waters, they would soon get fed up, or send them direct to the farthest off island you can and dump them there, tents only and same food day after day. Not be long till it stops.
    Unst? Could work...
    Bit rough on the 600+ that live there though, I was thinking more remote than that
    Indeed, spent part of my honeymoon there. Would have been a bit different if overrun by hungry vagrants (in addition to the otters!).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,960
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    No, I think it's rather that the democratic habit is far more deeply ingrained in American culture than either of those examples.

    With another few years of Trump and a GOP majority in Congress, then I'd have little confidence in the future of US democracy.
    He, and those around him will do all they can to subvert next year's elections, I have no doubt.

    But while I'm not certain about it, I don't think they will succeed.
    Here's a question for someone with a spreadsheet.

    If you add the safe Republican seats and the purple seats where the elections are managed by Republicans (I fear that "managed" is the right word), what does that add up to?

    It's not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes, as someone once said. They were a strong leader, if I recall correctly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,710
    Dopermean said:

    Where's the market on the midterms being cancelled?

    It’s not the US where next year’s elections are being cancelled. It’s somewhat closer to home.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,016
    Dura_Ace said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Because if they piss him off more he will tell Starmer, Macron and the German one, etc. to stop giving anything to Ukraine and they will dutifully obey. If you think they wouldn't you are fucking kidding yourself.
    At least then we would have the cleansing fire of knowing everything is fcuked (if there was any doubt).
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,663
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    No, I think it's rather that the democratic habit is far more deeply ingrained in American culture than either of those examples.

    With another few years of Trump and a GOP majority in Congress, then I'd have little confidence in the future of US democracy.
    He, and those around him will do all they can to subvert next year's elections, I have no doubt.

    But while I'm not certain about it, I don't think they will succeed.
    The fact that elections are run by states, and not federally, has also I think been a key protection against quickly overturning democratic norms.

    Sure, we have increased gerrymandering. But as @rcs1000 has pointed out several times, there is a tipping point at which that backfires. And the GOP may have been too greedy. Meanwhile, Newsom seems to be one prominent Democrat who recognises the urgency of the risk to democracy, returning the gerrymandering favour unless Texas reverses theirs.

    The Republicans just don't yet control enough state level institutions to completely invalidate democracy.

    I suspect 11 months is not enough time to change that. Not for want of trying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    Dura_Ace said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Because if they piss him off more he will tell Starmer, Macron and the German one, etc. to stop giving anything to Ukraine and they will dutifully obey. If you think they wouldn't you are fucking kidding yourself.
    He has basically told them that now but they plus Carney are if anything increasing aid to Ukraine
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,393
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Because if they piss him off more he will tell Starmer, Macron and the German one, etc. to stop giving anything to Ukraine and they will dutifully obey. If you think they wouldn't you are fucking kidding yourself.
    At least then we would have the cleansing fire of knowing everything is fcuked (if there was any doubt).
    Unfortunately the butt licking will continue, hard to think we are not already fcuked
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    edited 9:02AM
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,635
    As many of us have been saying for a while it's time for Starmer to make clear he's going to distance himself unequivocally from Trump and all of his neo Nazi coterie. If you think Trumps unpopular in the US imagine how the citizenship of the UK and the EU feel about him. Leave Trump to Farage and his flag waving admirers and move on quickly and decisively. I'm in France but the stuff he said about Khan appeared on the news and is shocking ......

    ........and for Starmer to be silent on it is even more shocking
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,924
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigel Farage appears to have got Jordan Bardella to agree in principle to tow backs of small boats.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-and-bardellas-small-boats-pact/

    Sir Keir will be thrilled that his cherished ideals of anglo-French co-operation will be retained after he leaves office.

    *In seriousness, in the event that both Farage and Bardella are elected, minds are more than likely to change, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    The Home Office and Civil Service simply won’t allow it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Cicero said:

    The midterms are of course quite far off. However the crisis in the US economy is beginning to happen now, and we should not forget that most Americans support Ukraine and take a very dim view of Trump's pro Russian antics.

    I could see a Republican split happening more quickly than the mid terms- MTG on the lunatic fringe of course has already gone, However we should note that traditional Republican members of Congress may also move against the Speaker. This would not itself be the end of Trump, but would stiffen resistance to him in the Congress and start to make the Executive more accountable- at least ending government by administrative dictatorship.

    In a more extreme case- say a Wall Street collapse and the advent of the long feared Second Great Depression, then I could see far more radical things happen and more quickly, and all of this of course coming before what will soon look like an inevitable, crushing defeat in the midterms.

    After the midterms I think we could very well see the House firmly in the hands of the Dems. Possibly the Senate too, and even if there are not 60 Dem Senators, I think there will be enough anti Trump Republican rebels to vote the articles of impeachment through the Senate.

    At that point Trump probably goes "on health grounds" and a lame duck Vance administration serves out the term under the strict supervision of Congress with all the Trump cronies purged and under criminal investigation.

    Increasingly I think Trump does not serve out his term- age, health, economic crisis and growing polical rebellion will see to him long before 2028.

    So far we are seeing a swing against the Republicans. Not a wave. Not a tidal wave.

    60 senators for the Democrats - that requires you to show your workings.

    The Democrats are on course (60/40 probability) for a narrow majority in the House - but that will not block Trump from much.
    The Senate could flip too, certainly polls show even Texas' Senate seat in 2026 could flip if the GOP pick Paxton
    If the Dems pick Crockett, then that's far less likely.
    Talarico polls show could beat Paxton though and Talarico led Dem nomination polls before Crockett entered

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas#General_election
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,946
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    I think we still indulge in too much American exceptionalism over their democracy, because they speak our language.

    If Trump were a similarly behaving leader of a large middle income country - Turkey, say, or South Africa - we’d all know what likely comes next. Gradual creeping manipulation of the democratic process to stay in power, becoming more brazen with each passing election. Because he’s American we assume somehow the constitution will save the day.

    No, I think it's rather that the democratic habit is far more deeply ingrained in American culture than either of those examples.

    With another few years of Trump and a GOP majority in Congress, then I'd have little confidence in the future of US democracy.
    He, and those around him will do all they can to subvert next year's elections, I have no doubt.

    But while I'm not certain about it, I don't think they will succeed.
    Agree. I think the key thing is that Trump is not a popular president. Other autocrats like Erdoğan made their move while they were popular.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    edited 9:05AM
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    There will definitely be elections. Even Putin still has elections.
    Putin has a far higher approval rating in Russia still than Trump has in the US now
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,291
    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    Does Maduro not have that many against him? But he's got the upper echelons of society and military onside.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,816
    Sandpit said:

    Dopermean said:

    Where's the market on the midterms being cancelled?

    It’s not the US where next year’s elections are being cancelled. It’s somewhat closer to home.
    I didn't think there was ever that much in the way of elections close to (your) home? :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    Morris_Dancer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    Does Maduro not have that many against him? But he's got the upper echelons of society and military onside.
    Maduro was only re elected last year with 51% of the vote and there is no evidence he is going to cancel the next election in Venezuala
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,061
    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    You can rule as a dictator with much less support than 50%, if you have the backing of the security forces. Maduro is a good example. If the security forces turn, the dictator is finished. It’s why civilian dictators don’t like to maintain powerful armies, if they can avoid it (they do like powerful paramilitary police forces).

    But, I do expect that much of the US military would revolt, if Trump ordered them to impose martial law in blue states. My impression is that many soldiers despise Trump, who views them as “suckers and losers”, and who made a drunkard his Defence Secretary.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,660
    How have McDonalds prices changed since Trump did his photostunt ?

    There's a possible opportunity there to embarrass Trump personally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    edited 9:12AM
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    You can rule as a dictator with much less support than 50%, if you have the backing of the security forces. Maduro is a good example. If the security forces turn, the dictator is finished. It’s why civilian dictators don’t like to maintain powerful armies, if they can avoid it (they do like powerful paramilitary police forces).

    But, I do expect that much of the US military would revolt, if Trump ordered them to impose martial law in blue states. My impression is that many soldiers despise Trump, who views them as “suckers and losers”, and who made a drunkard his Defence Secretary.
    Maduro was re elected last year with 51% of the vote, so had over 50% support.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election

    If the security forces turn it is largely as the dictator has lost public support anyway, as in Romania in 1989, Syria with Assad etc
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,061
    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    Does Maduro not have that many against him? But he's got the upper echelons of society and military onside.
    Maduro was only re elected last year with 51% of the vote and there is no evidence he is going to cancel the next election in Venezuala
    That election was blatantly rigged.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,816
    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can anyone say exactly what aid the USA is now providing to Ukraine? I’ve read variously that it’s 0$ and that they’ve stopped providing intelligence. If this is the case what is the utility of flattering Trump?

    Because if they piss him off more he will tell Starmer, Macron and the German one, etc. to stop giving anything to Ukraine and they will dutifully obey. If you think they wouldn't you are fucking kidding yourself.
    Must be at least one in Europe with a backbone who can tell him where to go.
    Ed M to regain labour leadership and be PM... Is he tough enough to tell Trump where to go? HELL YEAH! :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,061
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    You can rule as a dictator with much less support than 50%, if you have the backing of the security forces. Maduro is a good example. If the security forces turn, the dictator is finished. It’s why civilian dictators don’t like to maintain powerful armies, if they can avoid it (they do like powerful paramilitary police forces).

    But, I do expect that much of the US military would revolt, if Trump ordered them to impose martial law in blue states. My impression is that many soldiers despise Trump, who views them as “suckers and losers”, and who made a drunkard his Defence Secretary.
    Maduro was re elected last year with 51% of the vote, so had over 50% support
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election
    And, you think that declared result reflected the actual votes that were cast?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,291
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    You can rule as a dictator with much less support than 50%, if you have the backing of the security forces. Maduro is a good example. If the security forces turn, the dictator is finished. It’s why civilian dictators don’t like to maintain powerful armies, if they can avoid it (they do like powerful paramilitary police forces).

    But, I do expect that much of the US military would revolt, if Trump ordered them to impose martial law in blue states. My impression is that many soldiers despise Trump, who views them as “suckers and losers”, and who made a drunkard his Defence Secretary.
    Maduro was re elected last year with 51% of the vote, so had over 50% support.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election

    If the security forces turn it is largely as the dictator has lost public support anyway, as in Romania in 1989, Syria with Assad etc
    "elected". Yeah. If I were DMing this session seeing the inverted commas would be an Insight check with a DC of 2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,072
    edited 9:19AM
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the Midterms are held, MAGA lose control of the country. Many of them will go to jail.

    Question - are they united enough to drive through the democratic renewal and cancel / postpone the elections? Or is MTG John the Baptist, leading the way for a series of Damascene conversions and mea culpas?

    2026 is going to be some year...

    With a big enough blue wave, it would have to be a full fledged armed coup.
    I don't think they yet have sufficient control of the state institutions to do that, but if they could, they probably would.
    1. Choke off the blue wave now. Not safe to hold elections in blue places, the officials are terrorists
    2. Flood blue places with troopers from red places
    3. A few strategic extrajudicial murders to kick off the protests, to prove the blue lot are terrorist insurgents
    4. Elections postponed. For safety.
    To get away with that you need still close to 50% approval, if you are under 40% approval even if you have military support for now you risk revolution if you cancel elections permanently
    @HYUFD, you are a decent chap, and that is an admirable thing to be. But the downside of being a decent chap is to assume that other people are also decent chaps. And to keep giving the benefit of the doubt for far too long.

    The first is a good thing in a good society, but the second can end disastrously.

    Trump's Administration is not made up of decent chaps. Given the trouble they will be in after they hand over power, they ain't handing over power, no matter what the rules say.
    What has that what I said got to do with being a 'decent chap' though? When I was basically saying what a dictator needs to do to keep power.

    A dictator can keep power without holding any elections if about half or more of the country approves of what they are doing and the economy is OK, with the military and secret police etc behind them too. Trump of course won with 50% of the vote last year.

    If about 2/3 of the nation though wants the dictator gone, ultimately they are doomed and even the military will likely desert them even if the secret police stay loyal as well.

    That was what happened to Ceusescu for example who went from supreme leader of Romania in Jan 1989 to executed by firing squad after a revolution by Christmas 1989.

    Trump's latest Gallup approval rating is just 36%
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
    You can rule as a dictator with much less support than 50%, if you have the backing of the security forces. Maduro is a good example. If the security forces turn, the dictator is finished. It’s why civilian dictators don’t like to maintain powerful armies, if they can avoid it (they do like powerful paramilitary police forces).

    But, I do expect that much of the US military would revolt, if Trump ordered them to impose martial law in blue states. My impression is that many soldiers despise Trump, who views them as “suckers and losers”, and who made a drunkard his Defence Secretary.
    Maduro was re elected last year with 51% of the vote, so had over 50% support
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election
    And, you think that declared result reflected the actual votes that were cast?
    According to the Venezuala election commission yes, Maduro held an election and won it, it may not have been 100% perfect but he did not cancel elections. If they were that rigged he would also have won with 99% not just 51%
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