The Tory scorpion and Kemi the frog – politicalbetting.com
The Tory scorpion and Kemi the frog – politicalbetting.com
We should all be familiar with the fable of The Scorpion and the Frog, looking at the above chart above it is the Tory nature to dispose of their leaders pretty quickly this millennium unless you’re an exceptional talent like David Cameron.
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Fresh Thai and Cambodian border clashes, alas:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4g5e1p585qt
From my limited knowledge it seems the long history means multiple disputes over different eras.
An awful lot for the Tories depends on how Reform does in May. At the moment the shine is coming off them and Farage but they remain the strongest single party. Will that still be the case in May? Kemi's future may well depend on the answer.
In which case it really comes down to which of the populist parties, Reform or Green, folds more. And whilst I would happily see both Nigel and Zak disappear into the Vortex from the Adventure Game, Farage is probably more experienced and better at just about avoiding fatal trouble.
What the chart also shows, with four of the seven leaders lasting only two years (or less) is there will be ample time to replace not only Kemi but also Kemi's replacement before the next general election is due in July 2029. The ideal time to seize the crown is early 2027.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorpion_(Star_Trek:_Voyager)
Labour have got a massive problem. Centrist dads in constituencies that don't have a Waitrose or a Gail's isn't a winning coalition. But it's better than the one the Conservatives have.
I see Sir getting the chop. With Angela Rayner as Labour's Liz Truss, a brief and messy Premiership, possibly followed by a loveless coronation for Wes (Sunak) for an uninspiring short spell of dismal decline management to wrap things up. I'm not sure how long that will all take, becauase Starmer's polling is nowhere compared to Borises polling at the same time.
Surely not.
Given the dearth of remaining talent in the parliamentary Tory party, it is difficult to see who might do better. Cleverly seems wishy washy. Jenrick is passionate, and would compete effectively against Farage, although his wife might be a handicap in this regard. Who else might be a front runner in any leadership contest?
❱ Cutting tax further for workers
❱ £1 billion to electrify the North Wales Main Line
❱ Bringing nuclear power back to North Wales
❱ Keeping the Severn crossings toll free and giving communities consent over 20mph speed limits
❱ A modern National Service scheme
❱ £1 billion in continued levelling-up funding for Welsh communities
(I've got some sympathy for the current batch of Green MPs. They've gone to all the trouble of getting elected, only to be lumbered an opportunist gob on a stick as leader.)
Necessary reading for any remaining apologists for the geostrategic nonsense the US administration is currently perpetrating.
WARNING: LONG THREAD 🧵
Dear Americans,
Your political and media class has sold you a very convenient fairy tale for decades - the tale of how your tax dollars pay to defend freeloading Europe.
While it's an emotionally satisfying narrative, it's also wrong.
THE U.S. DOES NOT SUBSIDIZE EUROPEAN DEFENCE.
You are not running a charity, you are running an empire. And empires are costly.
Your forward deployments, your bases, your carrier groups, etc. - they are the pillars of a global security architecture that mainly serves you: to protect your trade routes, your currency, your corporate supply chains, your ability to project force anywhere on the planet in hours and days, not months.
Let’s walk through this like adults, and not emotional toddlers, shall we?..
https://x.com/BiankaB12/status/1997407679556485515
Badenoch and astarmer could be forgiven a bit of jelousy.
Oh dear.
The Green Party as we knew it is no more.
As for share in the polls, remember the lesson of the Alliance. Vote share is vanity, seats are sanity and swapping first place in Waveney Valley for improved second places in lots of places isn't a win.
I get that you don't like him, but he doesn't look to be losing seats.
"We're going to reopen coal mines and the steel works"
Go on then...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fly_in_the_Soup
While your sympathies seem increasingly Faragist, I don't think it is the Green Party that has changed much.
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Report/Eu9vr5h874kC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=fable+scorpion+frog&pg=RA1-PA11&printsec=frontcover
1) Accept being a part of the US's sphere of influence. That's probably looks much like the status quo for the UK or France, but looks far more perilous the further east you go. As it would be up to the US and Russia to agree the boundaries between their respective spheres of influence.
2) Demand that Europe is collectively has it's own independent sphere of influence, and that we are willing to defend our boundary from Russia's, assuming no help or support from the US. In which case, I'd question why we'd continue to host bases from the US.
Not allowing Ukraine to be forced to capitulate to American demand is a key first step to establishing option 2 as our future.
I don't expect majority appeal for such policies, but nice to have an alternative voice out there.
The paucity of political talent across the board is a major problem for the country. Whatever gets us out of this mess, it's not going to be effective leadership.
I'm also an environmentalist, so seeing the Green Party turn even further away from what should be their primary focus is very disappointing.
If they were saying as you do that we have to look after ourselves, then it would be a betrayal of an alliance which has lasted since shortly after the end of WWII. It would be a massive detriment to both them and us, but if they are so determined, then fair enough, so be it.
But they are not saying that.
They have abandoned any pretence of funding Ukraine; they have made it clear that they will not materially participate in any postwar security guarantees; but they nonetheless are trying to dictate what is in effect a partial surrender on Russia's terms - while simultaneously trying to cut commercial deals with Putin.
That would destroy Europe's security for a generation. We should not be allowing that.
Both nations have draconian anti-gay laws.
For @outsports
https://x.com/jonboy79/status/1997747481787179038?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
What they are still providing to Ukraine is intelligence which I am guessing is largely analysis of satellite imagery. This is fairly critical for the deployment of the much smaller Ukrainian army and the inability of Europe to provide a substitute shows a serious hole in our armory that we need to address. No doubt there are others along with the several generation shortfall in drones but these need to be our defence priorities. The US is no longer a reliable or even rational friend. Re-electing Donald Trump is fairly conclusive proof of that.
American power without responsibility, as someone once sort of put it.
By choosing Polanski they have simply adopted a leader who best represents the party as it current is, at national level at least.
In any event, it's apparently not their current policy:
https://greenparty.org.uk/2025/06/02/greens-call-for-investment-in-genuine-global-security/
..In anticipation of the outcome of the strategic defence review being published today, Ellie Chowns MP, who holds the defence brief for the Parliamentary Green Party, said:
“We acknowledge the need for greater defence spending and continued NATO membership, but also call for a more thorough reappraisal of strategic defence alliances. With Trump no longer a reliable ally, we need to deepen our defence cooperation with the EU, and review AUKUS...
2015, Marco Rubio: “As soon as I take office, I will move quickly to increase pressure on Moscow, under my administration, there will be no pleadings for meetings with Vladimir Putin. He will be treated for what he is – a gangster and a thug.”
Comparing the Find Out Now poll numbers from those of a year ago, the two shifts have been from Conservative to Reform and from Labour to Green (the former 6-7 points and the latter 9).
There was quite a hiatus in polling after the July 2024 GE and that has continued - Techne seem to have stopped polling while YouGov did no VI polling until January this year.
Comparing that poll (Jan 12th 2025) with their current numbers:
Reform 26% (+1)
Labour: 19% (-7)
Conservatives: 19% (-3)
Greens: 16% (+8)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (nc)
As with Find Out Now, a substantial move from Labour to Green, the LDs static but a much smaller move from Conservative to Reform.
"and swapping first place in Waveney Valley for improved second places in lots of places is a calamity."
Not to enquire too closely in to the goings on in Casa Rentool, but does that mean Mrs Sandy is a natural Green supporter? How does she feel about the current iteration?
Starting within Donald Tusk.
This is his opportunity to show he is more than a posturer:
despite his relaxed style in his office, where he often dispenses with suit and tie, he has a firm belief in the need at times to apply some muscle.
In July 2015, Merkel and the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, could see no way through after 14 hours of talks over the crisis that looked set to end in Grexit. “Sorry, but there is no way you are leaving this room,” Tusk told them.
The past five years have seen Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, the migration crisis and the rise of Donald Trump, of whom Tusk has been an outspoken critic. But it will be Brexit that surely defines the Tusk legacy. As an aide says: “For him, Brexit is a catastrophic breach of the liberal democratic order that he fought for as a young man, an unravelling of everything he believes in.”
Not everyone in Brussels is convinced the comments last week were wise. But, confronted by May on Thursday, Tusk did not budge: “He remains of the view that while the truth may be more painful, it is always more useful”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/09/donald-tusk-passionate-politician-poland-fight-against-communism
No, its not Brexit that will define Tusk's legacy but Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gpzep9n8et
But he has the advantage of being able to read it in the original Russian. The meeting in London seems as good a place as any for Europe to repudiate the proposal and come up with something a lot better.
The Army killed TRACER, the Army killed FRES, if they kill Ajax they will have spent nearly four decades not replacing CVRT.
They will never be allowed to spend any money ever again.
This is why Ajax is unflushable
https://x.com/thinkdefence/status/1997445828294615443
Frankly, whoever has been managing army weapons procurement should not be allowed to spend any money ever again.
Dear American friends, Europe is your closest ally, not your problem. And we have common enemies. At least that’s how it has been in the last 80 years. We need to stick to this, this is the only reasonable strategy of our common security. Unless something has changed.
https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1997336196007985541?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
I don't remember Poland being an ally of the western world between 1945 and 1990.
Seems to me the frog needs to be a dependable organisation, and the scorpion an individual that always lets people down or plays a snide move. Boris as the scorpion to the Tory Party Frog? Farage doing a deal with the Conservatives, then blowing it up once they’re in Downing St might be a better example
The Conservatives are not in control of their own destiny - IF Reform prospers, they will end up the fourth or fifth party in the next Commons. They need Reform to fail and for the bulk of that vote to come to them and that's two areas about which they can do very little.
I suspect Badenoch would like to see Labour doing a little better as well to blunt the Reform threat in Labour seats and the LDs doing worse so they can regain some or all of the 50-60 seast lost in that direction last time.
Again, little of that in the Conservative purview - the big question (as an outsider) is the Conservative relationship to Reform. It's clear Farage wants no kind of pact, deal or alliance at this time - that might change - but do the Tories try to be Reform-lite in the hope Farage departs and they can get a big share of the Reform vote or do they mark out a distinctive niche and hope the voters see them as a viable alternative to Labour and Reform?
Even among all the bad decisions that countries made in the last 1930s and early 1940s that one has always struck me as one of the worst.
I wish the Continent nothing but good, but I don't want Britain to be entangled in its affairs. We should be quite separate, with a very separate purpose.
I voted for Badenoch last year and want her to remain in place lest that human colostomy bag Jenrick takes over.
The point I was trying to make is that whilst Badenoch’s performances have improved the Tories are still doing worse than the 2024 GE.
That’s what is focussing the minds of Tory MPs.
'A piece of Czechoslovakia for our time'
Look at the Lib Dems and Labour. For from growing fat off the other's polling misery, their success or failure usually go together.
The Tories do need give people reasons to vote for them in preference to Reform, but they shouldn't wish for Reform's failure or disappearance - Reform has revived the right. The Tories and Reform look like being the one and two parties in polls soon.
5/2 Yes 2/7 No?
The UK (pop. 70m) just doesn't have the scale to compete with the EU, America, China or India, all of whom have at least 5 times the population. We should throw our lot in with the EU or America, as per @Ratters suggestion.
You are a little bit deluded*. You know the empire has gone right?
(*See also 'the EU including Russia'.)
I think what will help Badenoch is or are two things - first, Labour will also do very badly and second, Reform will likely over reach in terms of expectation management. It's a fine balance between getting your supporters out to vote because you can win places like Bromley, Bexley and Havering but you need the campaigners on the ground and does Reform have those in quantity where they need them?
That for me is the conundrum even though it's also likely local Conservative organisations have atrophied.
I think she stays until the GE, more often than not.
It would be tough on Kemi if Reform collapsed in scandal after she’d been removed. Her successor would probably have a Sir Keir style open goal at the next election
They'd already received their 'piece of paper' from Hitler in 1934.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Polish_declaration_of_non-aggression
As for the EU including Russia, isn't the dream of the EU for the cradle of Western civilisation to be a counterweight to US hegemony? I don't see that happening without the resources and strategic assets of Russia. And the EU could act as a civilising force there.
As things stand, if the EU spends all its resources in a war with Russia (and vice versa) all that really does is distract both from China, which increases its overlordship of Russia and its creeping influence over Europe.
Yes, Conservative Governments in 1970, 1979 and the 2015 majority came about because of the collapse of the Liberals and clearly the Conservatives would like to win back all or most of the seats lost to the LDs last time but that won't get them anywhere near a Commons majority. They need to win seats off Labour and in many of those Reform are the nearest challengers and this is the Reform Party which won't, at least under Farage, countenance any pact or deal with the Tories so it's possible we'll see dozens of seats where Reform wins, the Conservatives are second and Labour collapse to third.
The fundamental is whether the next election is going to be Labour versus Not Labour or Reform versus Not Reform just as 2024 was Conservative versus Not Conservative.
A final thought - this obsession with "left" versus "right" is just sloppy anachronistic thinking. Reform are not a "right wing" party by many measures - they are a populist party which incorporates both socially conservative elements (which is where the Conservatives went wrong arguably) and considerable State interventionism (in other words, the "you can have your cake and eat it" party which brings in the Labour supporters). They are as fiscally incoherent and illiterate as all the other parties including the Conservatives.
As long as that polling figure figure is low, the question of voting Tory to have a Tory government doesn't arise; like with voting LD.
No different leader will resolve that issue unless they tell us. It can only be resolved by Reform collapse, or Tory decisiveness.