As Hegseth explains the fog of war to the press. Or his version of it. Trump sits looking like he is weighing up whether any of this bollocks is sufficient to delay the sacking.
Aaron Rupar @atrupar Q: So you didn't see any survivors after that first strike?
My understanding is that “the fog of war” is strategic not tactical - it’s not “I didn’t see the survivors that I shot” it’s “I didn’t realise that the enemy tanks were in the next door village”
I haven't seen any pictures/videos of Trump for a while - but he looks really "diminished". Like he's shrunk in the wash. Boy.
It's like seeing the lead singer of a band you watched on Top Of The Pops in 1982 and seeing them again 40-odd years later on a daytime cookery show and you can't quite believe it's the same person.
Seems OK to me.
He's clearly not the healthiest man, and if he needs some sort of 3-day recharge a month to keep the wheels on, I don't see the issue. If they'd managed to get some coherence out of Biden by plugging him into a machine for three days, they'd have taken it.
On diversity of Judges, they are diverse enough that I see some of our Tighty Righties (not on PB; more in the Rupert and Beyond type of category) ranting away about how X, Y or Z should not be a Judge from time to time.
Judges are more diverse than they were - iirc 1/3 or so are now women, and progress is being made on ethnic mix etc.
Did not Generic Bob have a rant about he would have Judges appointed by politicians to make sure they were all objective, and unbiased?
Diversity of opinion is what is needed, not diversity of immutable characteristics.
They are more diverse because an unlawful process of unofficial race discrimination is actively pursued. I had a friend who was a cps barrister told in not uncertain terms that white men were not being considered. He was seeing very young barely out of pupillage ethnic minority barristers fast tracked into judgeships.
There is literally no other way of ‘diversifying’ at speed other than excluding new white male candidates or putting the thumb on the selection process.
On diversity of Judges, they are diverse enough that I see some of our Tighty Righties (not on PB; more in the Rupert and Beyond type of category) ranting away about how X, Y or Z should not be a Judge from time to time.
Judges are more diverse than they were - iirc 1/3 or so are now women, and progress is being made on ethnic mix etc.
Did not Generic Bob have a rant about he would have Judges appointed by politicians to make sure they were all objective, and unbiased?
Diversity of opinion is what is needed, not diversity of immutable characteristics.
They are more diverse because an unlawful process of unofficial race discrimination is actively pursued. I had a friend who was a cps barrister told in not uncertain terms that white men were not being considered. He was seeing very young barely out of pupillage ethnic minority barristers fast tracked into judgeships.
There is literally no other way of ‘diversifying’ at speed other than excluding new white male candidates or putting the thumb on the selection process.
There may be a case for making the remaining juries more representative but judges should apply the same law and same sentencing guidelines regardless of gender and ethnicity. It may be good to have a few more non white males as judges but it shouldn't impact on the judgements and sentencing reached
I suspect genuinly busy on a project. He’ll be back at some point, as the dog crawls back to its vomit, Leon doth return to his natural home, a collection of mostly middle aged white men, moaning about stuff.*
I suspect genuinly busy on a project. He’ll be back at some point, as the dog crawls back to its vomit, Leon doth return to his natural home, a collection of mostly middle aged white men, moaning about stuff.*
*Mostly cricket and pizza, tbf.
It’s a bit like Happy Days without the Fonz… or Dear John without Kirk St Moritz!
Is Leon due back from his ban yet? It is a bit more boring here without him and he was also one of the few Reform backers on the site
Are you backing Reform too?
No but given about a third of the voters are on latest polls we need a few Reform backers on here
Reform voters would be the least likely to be on here of all parties potential voters. They should be vastly underrepresented as they are generally not politically engaged
As Hegseth explains the fog of war to the press. Or his version of it. Trump sits looking like he is weighing up whether any of this bollocks is sufficient to delay the sacking.
Aaron Rupar @atrupar Q: So you didn't see any survivors after that first strike?
My understanding is that “the fog of war” is strategic not tactical - it’s not “I didn’t see the survivors that I shot” it’s “I didn’t realise that the enemy tanks were in the next door village”
I haven't seen any pictures/videos of Trump for a while - but he looks really "diminished". Like he's shrunk in the wash. Boy.
It's like seeing the lead singer of a band you watched on Top Of The Pops in 1982 and seeing them again 40-odd years later on a daytime cookery show and you can't quite believe it's the same person.
Seems OK to me.
He's clearly not the healthiest man, and if he needs some sort of 3-day recharge a month to keep the wheels on, I don't see the issue. If they'd managed to get some coherence out of Biden by plugging him into a machine for three days, they'd have taken it.
I'm no fan of Trump (to say the least) but I'm always struck at quite how resilient and limber he is, with his golfing, repartee, and all. Objectively not bad for an overweight 79 yr old. If only Biden had fared as well...
And, sadly, the thought of President J D Vance is extremely sobering. We should be careful what we wish for.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I will probably vote for whomever is most likely to succeed from Reform and the Tories.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
“Polls are not a forecast they’re a snapshot. If they were a forecast, I’d be currently celebrating my 10th year as prime minister,” he tells the @NewStatesman Christmas reception.
“I was 15 points ahead of David Cameron… Fatalism and pessimism never lifted a single child out of poverty, created a single job or won a single vote for the Labour Party.”
Miliband quotes a woman he met recently, who said she didn’t like Nigel Farage but still warned him: “If you don’t sort it out you’ll get extremism.”
But Miliband strikes a note of optimism: “Reform are incredibly vulnerable and totally beatable. I am absolutely confident we can beat them.”
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
If the only two options on the ballot were Reform and Conservative, I would vote Reform.
Kemi Badenoch has certainly been making the political weather in recent weeks and that has definitely knocked Farage off the news headlines, might also explain the dip in Reform's polling with some firms.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
“Polls are not a forecast they’re a snapshot. If they were a forecast, I’d be currently celebrating my 10th year as prime minister,” he tells the @NewStatesman Christmas reception.
“I was 15 points ahead of David Cameron… Fatalism and pessimism never lifted a single child out of poverty, created a single job or won a single vote for the Labour Party.”
Miliband quotes a woman he met recently, who said she didn’t like Nigel Farage but still warned him: “If you don’t sort it out you’ll get extremism.”
But Miliband strikes a note of optimism: “Reform are incredibly vulnerable and totally beatable. I am absolutely confident we can beat them.”
That woman is absolutely nailed on to vote Reform. That's exactly what you'd say if you were a Reform voter wanting to be polite to David Milliband, but still felt it was important to register some discontentment out of principle. David Milliband the silly man thinks that's a vote in his box.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
Covertly, I voted for UKIP (2014 Euros), Brexit (2016 EURef), and the Brexit Party (2019 Euros).
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
If the only two options on the ballot were Reform and Conservative, I would vote Reform.
Yes but otherwise you would vote for Labour or LD so you still aren't a Reform voter
The Tennessee 7th Distrct special election results will start coming through after 1am tomorrow morning. Probably a GOP hold, but could be a Democrat surprise. Big news if so.
I sense the Reform phenomenon is starting to wane - has a bit of a post-2017 Corbyn feel about it. Does anyone really still see raffish old Nigel as the answer to any sort of problem? Reform may soon to choose to rebuild and go with youth. That Grimes chap?
Crazy of Reform to rule a deal out in my opinion. The fact that they are keen to take on board ex-Tories, who were part of the 14 years referenced, makes the comment seem a bit stupid
A false story in the FT tonight claims Reform would do a deal with the Tories.
After 14 years of dishonesty & lies they should never be forgiven. The idea I’d work with them is ludicrous.
They betrayed my trust in 2019 & we will ensure they cease to be a national party in May.
Every time you hear someone saying "Reform have probably peaked", like Adam Boulton just now on Sky News paper review, you know they strongly dislike the party.
I sense the Reform phenomenon is starting to wane - has a bit of a post-2017 Corbyn feel about it. Does anyone really still see raffish old Nigel as the answer to any sort of problem? Reform may soon to choose to rebuild and go with youth. That Grimes chap?
The Tennessee 7th Distrct special election results will start coming through after 1am tomorrow morning. Probably a GOP hold, but could be a Democrat surprise. Big news if so.
The Democrats haven't won that District since 1980, so if they did win it we could be looking at a post Watergate style Democratic midterms landslide next year. Odds still on a GOP narrow hold tonight
Every time you hear someone saying "Reform have probably peaked", like Adam Boulton just now on Sky News paper review, you know they strongly dislike the party.
Yes, I don’t understand what people get out of it. It would be more honest to say “I hope Reform have peaked” as that’s what it comes across as meaning.
It’s of no value anyway, as they just say it again when Reform go up, without mentioning they’d said it before and were wrong.
In spread betting people used to do this. Sell the goals, then keep selling every time a goal went in to average out. Mug punter behaviour usually
As Hegseth explains the fog of war to the press. Or his version of it. Trump sits looking like he is weighing up whether any of this bollocks is sufficient to delay the sacking.
Aaron Rupar @atrupar Q: So you didn't see any survivors after that first strike?
My understanding is that “the fog of war” is strategic not tactical - it’s not “I didn’t see the survivors that I shot” it’s “I didn’t realise that the enemy tanks were in the next door village”
I haven't seen any pictures/videos of Trump for a while - but he looks really "diminished". Like he's shrunk in the wash. Boy.
It's like seeing the lead singer of a band you watched on Top Of The Pops in 1982 and seeing them again 40-odd years later on a daytime cookery show and you can't quite believe it's the same person.
Seems OK to me.
He's clearly not the healthiest man, and if he needs some sort of 3-day recharge a month to keep the wheels on, I don't see the issue. If they'd managed to get some coherence out of Biden by plugging him into a machine for three days, they'd have taken it.
I've no idea about his health. It's just a quite shocking physical difference to when I last saw him 10-12 months ago.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
“Polls are not a forecast they’re a snapshot. If they were a forecast, I’d be currently celebrating my 10th year as prime minister,” he tells the @NewStatesman Christmas reception.
“I was 15 points ahead of David Cameron… Fatalism and pessimism never lifted a single child out of poverty, created a single job or won a single vote for the Labour Party.”
Miliband quotes a woman he met recently, who said she didn’t like Nigel Farage but still warned him: “If you don’t sort it out you’ll get extremism.”
But Miliband strikes a note of optimism: “Reform are incredibly vulnerable and totally beatable. I am absolutely confident we can beat them.”
That woman is absolutely nailed on to vote Reform. That's exactly what you'd say if you were a Reform voter wanting to be polite to David Milliband, but still felt it was important to register some discontentment out of principle. David Milliband the silly man thinks that's a vote in his box.
This page of comments is certainly not in line with polling. It goes, to the best of my knowledge: Reform, [Reform? I assume], Tory, Tory, Reform, Tory, [?? I’ve no idea what Sunil votes], Tory, Tory, Reform, Lib Dem, Reform, and now Lib Dem.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
I would say LDs are over represented on here, Tories and Labour and Green and SNP about average represented based on percentage of posters and their voteshare percentage wise UK wide.
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Is any poster on this thread tonight willing to openly say they will vote Reform at the next GE?
I did at the last one. Not sure next time, I quite like Kemi
So with you and LuckyGuy we have potentially half a Reform voter each, so at most rounded up to a single Reform voter the entire thread
“Polls are not a forecast they’re a snapshot. If they were a forecast, I’d be currently celebrating my 10th year as prime minister,” he tells the @NewStatesman Christmas reception.
“I was 15 points ahead of David Cameron… Fatalism and pessimism never lifted a single child out of poverty, created a single job or won a single vote for the Labour Party.”
Miliband quotes a woman he met recently, who said she didn’t like Nigel Farage but still warned him: “If you don’t sort it out you’ll get extremism.”
But Miliband strikes a note of optimism: “Reform are incredibly vulnerable and totally beatable. I am absolutely confident we can beat them.”
That woman is absolutely nailed on to vote Reform. That's exactly what you'd say if you were a Reform voter wanting to be polite to David Milliband, but still felt it was important to register some discontentment out of principle. David Milliband the silly man thinks that's a vote in his box.
You've used the American spelling of Ed Miliband.
Do Reform voters do polite? Or is it the social embarassment of outing yourself as deeply racist?
Crazy of Reform to rule a deal out in my opinion. The fact that they are keen to take on board ex-Tories, who were part of the 14 years referenced, makes the comment seem a bit stupid
A false story in the FT tonight claims Reform would do a deal with the Tories.
After 14 years of dishonesty & lies they should never be forgiven. The idea I’d work with them is ludicrous.
They betrayed my trust in 2019 & we will ensure they cease to be a national party in May.
It would make sense for Farage to say this if Boris Johnson were still in charge, along with lots of the 2019 cabinet, but to say it when most of the big hitters have gone, and the person leading the Tories is someone he has openly praised, seems like a silly thing to do
Every time you hear someone saying "Reform have probably peaked", like Adam Boulton just now on Sky News paper review, you know they strongly dislike the party.
Is "The Tories have probably floored" any better? I don't like them but think it's true.
Structurally, I think Labour became unpopular too quickly for the Tories to immediately benefit. It was too close to their long stint in government, which people looked back on with bad memories one way or another.
As time passes, and assuming Labour don't regain popularity due to some surprise economic boom, the Tories are the natural repository for voters who want a serious alternative government.
Their policy platform is also much more consistent with their desired voter base. Unlike Reform, who economically want to be Labour up north when spending and Thatcher down south when cutting taxes and benefits.
As Hegseth explains the fog of war to the press. Or his version of it. Trump sits looking like he is weighing up whether any of this bollocks is sufficient to delay the sacking.
Aaron Rupar @atrupar Q: So you didn't see any survivors after that first strike?
My understanding is that “the fog of war” is strategic not tactical - it’s not “I didn’t see the survivors that I shot” it’s “I didn’t realise that the enemy tanks were in the next door village”
I haven't seen any pictures/videos of Trump for a while - but he looks really "diminished". Like he's shrunk in the wash. Boy.
It's like seeing the lead singer of a band you watched on Top Of The Pops in 1982 and seeing them again 40-odd years later on a daytime cookery show and you can't quite believe it's the same person.
Seems OK to me.
He's clearly not the healthiest man, and if he needs some sort of 3-day recharge a month to keep the wheels on, I don't see the issue. If they'd managed to get some coherence out of Biden by plugging him into a machine for three days, they'd have taken it.
The "but Biden" gambit. Makes you sound like Trump (albeit slightly more coherent.)
The Tennessee 7th Distrct special election results will start coming through after 1am tomorrow morning. Probably a GOP hold, but could be a Democrat surprise. Big news if so.
I used to love a ding dong on here, but after a while it does get tiresome, especially when troll-types just twist everything you say. I took a break and it was nice not to have people just clucking for a row all the time…
I do miss the old crew. Antifrank, Richard Nabavi, Southam Observer, David Herdson, and obviously SeanT. Even Tim! It seemed like there was more debate and less trolling ten years ago on here. I wonder why they all left? Most post on blueSky and when I’ve looked they’re generally just talking to themselves
It would be a seismic shock if Behn won the TN special election . She’d need a massive turnout in Davidson county and would need to win Montgomery county and then hope for a very low turnout in rural areas .
Ref 28.06% [-7.74] Con 27.19% [+4.19] Lab 21.81% [-2.69] Grn 11.83% [+4.55] LD 5.80% [-3.62] Ind 5.31% [new]
Somewhat encouraging for Kemi in that by election tonight has seen a swing from Reform to Con since the county council elections in May despite the narrow Reform hold
The Tennessee 7th Distrct special election results will start coming through after 1am tomorrow morning. Probably a GOP hold, but could be a Democrat surprise. Big news if so.
Result in 2024 Congressional Election was:
Rep 59.5 Dem 38.1
That looks too big a margin to overturn.
No history of LD surge from nowhere by-election wins over there, I imagine.
I still have to chuckle at some of the by-elections here when the parties and supporters spend time arguing over who is best placed to beat the incumbent, even acting like it is unfair that a party in distant third place is 'spoiling' things, only for the third placed candidate from last time to win. (North Shropshire being an extreme example, as the LDs had been fully 12% behind Labour at the previous GE).
Then at the next by-election they all pretend it never happened.
Randomly looking at by-elections on wikipedia and the very close Runcorn win for Reform links to a very charming 1892 Cirencester by-election where the Conservative was declared the winner by three votes, but an election petition resulted in the votes later being declared equal and a new election held.
In that 1893 election apparently the Liberal candidate won with a mighty 2.6% majority, 242 votes - I guess the electorate back then did not punish the previous loser seeming to have sour grapes.
The losing Conservative's page indicates he did not contest an election again, whilst the winning liberal served on and off until 1916 when he entered the Lords, by which time he had become a Conservative himself by way of the Liberal Unionists.
It would be a seismic shock if Behn won the TN special election . She’d need a massive turnout in Davidson county and would need to win Montgomery county and then hope for a very low turnout in rural areas .
Feels very expectations management from the GOP rather than genuine prospect of losing? The politics of the USA seems so loud, bitter, and as subtle as a missile into a drug boat that I don't know if they still operate with any subtlety.
It would be a seismic shock if Behn won the TN special election . She’d need a massive turnout in Davidson county and would need to win Montgomery county and then hope for a very low turnout in rural areas .
Feels very expectations management from the GOP rather than genuine prospect of losing? The politics of the USA seems so loud, bitter, and as subtle as a missile into a drug boat that I don't know if they still operate with any subtlety.
I would be very surprised if the Democrats won.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the gap was only 5 or 6 percentage points.
I've never encountered a change of more than 2-3 when doing a recount, if even that, but I suppose bigger margins must have been seen somewhere.
That's true 99% of the time. Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005 went from a Tory majority of 130 to a Labour one of 79 votes after recounts.
Is Sittingbourne the closest 3 way marginal Westminster seat at present? About 1400 votes between 1st and 3rd
I think Bob Marshall Andrews said on 2005 election night he had lost the nearby seat of medway .... he held on by 213 votes. Mark reckless was the losing Tory that night
I've never encountered a change of more than 2-3 when doing a recount, if even that, but I suppose bigger margins must have been seen somewhere.
That's true 99% of the time. Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005 went from a Tory majority of 130 to a Labour one of 79 votes after recounts.
Is Sittingbourne the closest 3 way marginal Westminster seat at present? About 1400 votes between 1st and 3rd
I think Bob Marshall Andrews said on 2005 election night he had lost the nearby seat of medway .... he held on by 213 votes. Mark reckless was the losing Tory that night
It may be, although I haven't gone through every seat to check.
"China | Talent flows America is foolishly waving goodbye to thousands of Chinese boffins Hostile policies and attacks on science are driving them back into China’s arms"
It would be a seismic shock if Behn won the TN special election . She’d need a massive turnout in Davidson county and would need to win Montgomery county and then hope for a very low turnout in rural areas .
Feels very expectations management from the GOP rather than genuine prospect of losing? The politics of the USA seems so loud, bitter, and as subtle as a missile into a drug boat that I don't know if they still operate with any subtlety.
I would be very surprised if the Democrats won.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the gap was only 5 or 6 percentage points.
Looking like just over a 7 percentage point GOP hold. So, the Democrats did well... but didn't get that close.
A deal between Tories and Reform not to actively contest the same seats, which was successful in 2019, will be much trickier this time.
Reform will want the majority of seats, given their share in the polls, and surely the Tories won't agree to that.
I suspect that, like Labour, the Tories would find it exceptionally difficult to agree not to stand a candidate in any GB seat, given their history, tradition and rules. With the risks that if they didn’t do so, they both (further) toxify their brand and open the door for some disgruntled activist to put themselves forward as some sort of independent Tory. They would also be opening the door to greater Reform representation in Parliament, and hence more prominence and credibility; a move that, like many of the decisions taken under Johnson, could prove disastrous for the party in the medium and longer term, even if it delivers a short term payoff.
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
I've never encountered a change of more than 2-3 when doing a recount, if even that, but I suppose bigger margins must have been seen somewhere.
If a bundle is found in the wrong pile - as can happen if the ballot paper on top doesn’t match those beneath - then the result will shift by 49. It’s not that uncommon in a parliamentary recount, and has been known at ward level.
"China | Talent flows America is foolishly waving goodbye to thousands of Chinese boffins Hostile policies and attacks on science are driving them back into China’s arms"
Typical Economist globalist framing, ignoring that the biggest issues are the amount of American IP stolen by China over the past few years, a recent Chinese law that means mandatory ‘debriefing’ for Chinese nationals working or studying in the US, and the appearance of Chinese “police stations” in a number of American cities.
Much easier to say OrangeManBad.
As with the UK discussion about the new Chinese Embassy in London, it’s very clear they are not our friends and are trying to extract huge amounts of intelligence material from Western countries.
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
The Dems also had a terrible candidate. She previously said she hates Nashville and hates country music, before running for Congress in, err, a seat that covers half of Nashville.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
I used to love a ding dong on here, but after a while it does get tiresome, especially when troll-types just twist everything you say. I took a break and it was nice not to have people just clucking for a row all the time…
I do miss the old crew. Antifrank, Richard Nabavi, Southam Observer, David Herdson, and obviously SeanT. Even Tim! It seemed like there was more debate and less trolling ten years ago on here. I wonder why they all left? Most post on blueSky and when I’ve looked they’re generally just talking to themselves
I very much agree on most of that, but you really have to acknowledge Leon, interesting though he can be, was one of those clucking for a row on a pretty regular basis.
I used to love a ding dong on here, but after a while it does get tiresome, especially when troll-types just twist everything you say. I took a break and it was nice not to have people just clucking for a row all the time…
I do miss the old crew. Antifrank, Richard Nabavi, Southam Observer, David Herdson, and obviously SeanT. Even Tim! It seemed like there was more debate and less trolling ten years ago on here. I wonder why they all left? Most post on blueSky and when I’ve looked they’re generally just talking to themselves
I very much agree on most of that, but you really have to acknowledge Leon, interesting though he can be, was one of those clucking for a row on a pretty regular basis.
The site has certainly been more polite and informative of late.
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
Note, though, that the GOP spent a truckload of cash in a +21 point district, against a Dem who was to the left of Mamdani on policing - which is a really bad place for a candidate to be.
I don't think you can read much into it either way, other than that the GOP is unpopular. It's not a great data point for assessing how unpopular.
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
The Dems also had a terrible candidate. She previously said she hates Nashville and hates country music, before running for Congress in, err, a seat that covers half of Nashville.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
Although turnout at the midterms will likely be down a similar amount compared to the Presidential - we'll probably see 45% turnout v 65% at least years Presidential.
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
The Dems also had a terrible candidate. She previously said she hates Nashville and hates country music, before running for Congress in, err, a seat that covers half of Nashville.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
Although turnout at the midterms will likely be down a similar amount compared to the Presidential - we'll probably see 45% turnout v 65% at least years Presidential.
How many seats do you think might go from red to blue next year?
I’m thinking it could be a couple of dozen, which would mean a similar Dem majority as the GOP got in 2010 against Obama, leading to a lame duck session unable to pass anything of note.
Here’s Pete Hegseth in 2016 saying there should be consequences for people who commit war crimes—that members of the military shouldn’t follow illegal orders from the President: “If you’re doing something that is just completely unlawful and ruthless, then there is a consequence for that. That’s why the military said it won’t follow unlawful orders from their commander in chief.” https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1995964443532943761
Woah. Newsmax’s legal analyst just said Pete Hegseth and everyone involved in the illegal boat strike should be “prosecuted for a war crime.”
He was due to have launched with SpaceX next year to the ISS, one of very few programmes that have survived Russian sanctions, and is now even more important due to the loss of the launch pad in Khazakstan last week.
He was caught smuggling files and images of classified or confidential material out of the training base, and will be replaced with the designated backup cosmonaut for the mission.
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
The Dems also had a terrible candidate. She previously said she hates Nashville and hates country music, before running for Congress in, err, a seat that covers half of Nashville.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
Although turnout at the midterms will likely be down a similar amount compared to the Presidential - we'll probably see 45% turnout v 65% at least years Presidential.
How many seats do you think might go from red to blue next year?
I’m thinking it could be a couple of dozen, which would mean a similar Dem majority as the GOP got in 2010 against Obama, leading to a lame duck session unable to pass anything of note.
It's not going to be massive, but there's pretty much always a swing against the incumbent: I think 20-25 Democrat gains is probably about right.
The reality is, though, that the Republicans will almost certainly still control the Senate (albeit maybe down a Senator or two), and will definitely control the Presidency. So the likelihood of anything passing both houses of Congress and the Senate is small.
New measures will stop the “profound injustice” of victims being questioned, sometimes without warning, about past rapes that they have reported to the police, said David Lammy, the justice secretary.
Lammy, who on Tuesday announced jury trials would be scrapped for cases where sentences are likely to be less than three years, said too many rape victims left the criminal justice system feeling like they had been put on trial, with defence barristers using sensitive details of past relationships and abuse to discredit them.
He said: “That is a profound injustice, and it has driven far too many women and girls out of the justice system altogether. This must stop, and our new reforms will ensure that survivors are not demonised for the abuse they have suffered.”
Under new laws, “bad character” evidence related to a victim’s past sexual history or abuse will no longer be allowed, unless lawyers have evidence to suggest a complainant has previously lied. Previous compensation claims for experiences of crime by victims will be banned under similar conditions...
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
The Dems also had a terrible candidate. She previously said she hates Nashville and hates country music, before running for Congress in, err, a seat that covers half of Nashville.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
Although turnout at the midterms will likely be down a similar amount compared to the Presidential - we'll probably see 45% turnout v 65% at least years Presidential.
How many seats do you think might go from red to blue next year?
I’m thinking it could be a couple of dozen, which would mean a similar Dem majority as the GOP got in 2010 against Obama, leading to a lame duck session unable to pass anything of note.
It's not going to be massive, but there's pretty much always a swing against the incumbent: I think 20-25 Democrat gains is probably about right.
The reality is, though, that the Republicans will almost certainly still control the Senate (albeit maybe down a Senator or two), and will definitely control the Presidency. So the likelihood of anything passing both houses of Congress and the Senate is small.
That's a very decided opinion. Don't you think it's too soon to be sure about that ?
My iown view (FWIW) is that it's a toss up between the sort of result you describe, and something close to a landslide.
New measures will stop the “profound injustice” of victims being questioned, sometimes without warning, about past rapes that they have reported to the police, said David Lammy, the justice secretary.
Lammy, who on Tuesday announced jury trials would be scrapped for cases where sentences are likely to be less than three years, said too many rape victims left the criminal justice system feeling like they had been put on trial, with defence barristers using sensitive details of past relationships and abuse to discredit them.
He said: “That is a profound injustice, and it has driven far too many women and girls out of the justice system altogether. This must stop, and our new reforms will ensure that survivors are not demonised for the abuse they have suffered.”
Under new laws, “bad character” evidence related to a victim’s past sexual history or abuse will no longer be allowed, unless lawyers have evidence to suggest a complainant has previously lied. Previous compensation claims for experiences of crime by victims will be banned under similar conditions...
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
I don't think it's that encouraging: it's a par result for the Democrats and point to them regaining the House next year. But it's not suggesting any kind of blow out result.
The Dems also had a terrible candidate. She previously said she hates Nashville and hates country music, before running for Congress in, err, a seat that covers half of Nashville.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
Although turnout at the midterms will likely be down a similar amount compared to the Presidential - we'll probably see 45% turnout v 65% at least years Presidential.
How many seats do you think might go from red to blue next year?
I’m thinking it could be a couple of dozen, which would mean a similar Dem majority as the GOP got in 2010 against Obama, leading to a lame duck session unable to pass anything of note.
It's not going to be massive, but there's pretty much always a swing against the incumbent: I think 20-25 Democrat gains is probably about right.
The reality is, though, that the Republicans will almost certainly still control the Senate (albeit maybe down a Senator or two), and will definitely control the Presidency. So the likelihood of anything passing both houses of Congress and the Senate is small.
That's a very decided opinion. Don't you think it's too soon to be sure about that ?
My iown view (FWIW) is that it's a toss up between the sort of result you describe, and something close to a landslide.
Oh, lots could change in the next year: Trump could get lucky and get his tariffs declared illegal. Or, we could see the cost of living crisis intensify, while unemployment rises. They might also get really lucky, and get Ken Paxton as the Republican nominee in Texas.
Right now, my view is that it'll be a pretty typical midterm election, with the Democrats winning 20-25 seats, and picking up Maine and probably North Carolina.
"It’s a curiosity that a large majority of voters backing Nigel Farage also want stronger working rights. Yet he and his MPs voted against every item in the bill. The day may come, closer to the next election, when the scales fall from the eyes of many Reform supporters, discovering they disagree with Farage on just about everything except immigration."
This has been said for some time. I remain unconvinced.
I suspect no one will care by 2028/9. They will just want rid of Starmer and Labour and the most likely vehicle will do.
But who really knows. Three years is a long time...
Yes. A long time. A question I find interesting about the next election is not so much who will comes first (in votes and/or seats) but which two parties will be contending the top two places in respect of votes and/or seats. Because this seems to me unusually open. We never think about it because it's always been Lab and Tory.
Is it the case that the top two WRT votes or seats could be almost any combination of Labour, Tory, Reform, Green, LD? 10 combinations in all, of which few are impossible.
Betting post: I think it will be Labour v Reform or even Labour v Tory, but 3.5 years is a very long time.
Just to nitpick that is 20 combinations for top 2.
Edit: At least if you consider first and second different to second and first, so maybe the nitpick was wrong.
Comments
He's clearly not the healthiest man, and if he needs some sort of 3-day recharge a month to keep the wheels on, I don't see the issue. If they'd managed to get some coherence out of Biden by plugging him into a machine for three days, they'd have taken it.
There is literally no other way of ‘diversifying’ at speed other than excluding new white male candidates or putting the thumb on the selection process.
Not banned, but maybe just bored of the pile ons
*Mostly cricket and pizza, tbf.
And, sadly, the thought of President J D Vance is extremely sobering. We should be careful what we wish for.
Labour, Green, Reform and DNV are probably under-represented on here. Conservative and Lib Dem are over-represented.
I’d guess most here are far less swingy than the average voters.
https://x.com/acyn/status/1995901264182608078
Trump: The fat drug. F-A-T for fat people. Anybody use it at the table?
Nothing to do with the £6 million pounds of donations to the conservatives and just £2 million to reform then !!!!
Reform posters though are seriously under represented given Reform now lead the polls
Like a kidnapper does to their hostage?
(Who does Farage hate more? Labour or the Tories? Open question...)
Reform will want the majority of seats, given their share in the polls, and surely the Tories won't agree to that.
Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
Ed Miliband urges Labour MPs to keep the faith:
“Polls are not a forecast they’re a snapshot. If they were a forecast, I’d be currently celebrating my 10th year as prime minister,” he tells the @NewStatesman Christmas reception.
“I was 15 points ahead of David Cameron… Fatalism and pessimism never lifted a single child out of poverty, created a single job or won a single vote for the Labour Party.”
Miliband quotes a woman he met recently, who said she didn’t like Nigel Farage but still warned him: “If you don’t sort it out you’ll get extremism.”
But Miliband strikes a note of optimism: “Reform are incredibly vulnerable and totally beatable. I am absolutely confident we can beat them.”
https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/1995958479891144782
Kemi probably wouldn't do such a deal and Cleverly and Stride certainly wouldn't
The Tennessee 7th Distrct special election results will start coming through after 1am tomorrow morning.
Probably a GOP hold, but could be a Democrat surprise. Big news if so.
A false story in the FT tonight claims Reform would do a deal with the Tories.
After 14 years of dishonesty & lies they should never be forgiven. The idea I’d work with them is ludicrous.
They betrayed my trust in 2019 & we will ensure they cease to be a national party in May.
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1995984104836223225?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The Financial Times have published an article that is the definition of fake news.
Here’s the truth, directly from the horses mouth.
NO deals, EVER with the failed Tory party, they are headed for extinction
https://x.com/ziayusufuk/status/1995984953117479179?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
It’s of no value anyway, as they just say it again when Reform go up, without mentioning they’d said it before and were wrong.
In spread betting people used to do this. Sell the goals, then keep selling every time a goal went in to average out. Mug punter behaviour usually
"@EddieBisk
We are having a recount because Reform and the Conservatives are separated by just 23 votes at the moment, with Reform ahead, Labour in third
11:28 PM · Dec 2, 2025"
https://x.com/EddieBisk/status/1995998548253381025
Structurally, I think Labour became unpopular too quickly for the Tories to immediately benefit. It was too close to their long stint in government, which people looked back on with bad memories one way or another.
As time passes, and assuming Labour don't regain popularity due to some surprise economic boom, the Tories are the natural repository for voters who want a serious alternative government.
Their policy platform is also much more consistent with their desired voter base. Unlike Reform, who economically want to be Labour up north when spending and Thatcher down south when cutting taxes and benefits.
Makes you sound like Trump (albeit slightly more coherent.)
Rep 59.5
Dem 38.1
That looks too big a margin to overturn.
I do miss the old crew. Antifrank, Richard Nabavi, Southam Observer, David Herdson, and obviously SeanT. Even Tim! It seemed like there was more debate and less trolling ten years ago on here. I wonder why they all left? Most post on blueSky and when I’ve looked they’re generally just talking to themselves
https://www.livenowfox.com/video/1750079
Ref Hold
Ref 745
Con 722
Lab 579
Grn 314
LD 154
Ind 141"
Ref 28.06% [-7.74]
Con 27.19% [+4.19]
Lab 21.81% [-2.69]
Grn 11.83% [+4.55]
LD 5.80% [-3.62]
Ind 5.31% [new]
https://x.com/EddieBisk/status/1996002216298094888
I still have to chuckle at some of the by-elections here when the parties and supporters spend time arguing over who is best placed to beat the incumbent, even acting like it is unfair that a party in distant third place is 'spoiling' things, only for the third placed candidate from last time to win. (North Shropshire being an extreme example, as the LDs had been fully 12% behind Labour at the previous GE).
Then at the next by-election they all pretend it never happened.
In that 1893 election apparently the Liberal candidate won with a mighty 2.6% majority, 242 votes - I guess the electorate back then did not punish the previous loser seeming to have sour grapes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1892_Cirencester_by-election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Cirencester_by-election
The losing Conservative's page indicates he did not contest an election again, whilst the winning liberal served on and off until 1916 when he entered the Lords, by which time he had become a Conservative himself by way of the Liberal Unionists.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the gap was only 5 or 6 percentage points.
I think Bob Marshall Andrews said on 2005 election night he had lost the nearby seat of medway .... he held on by 213 votes. Mark reckless was the losing Tory that night
America is foolishly waving goodbye to thousands of Chinese boffins
Hostile policies and attacks on science are driving them back into China’s arms"
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/12/02/america-is-foolishly-waving-goodbye-to-thousands-of-chinese-boffins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raPajMnYUKY
http://youtube.com/post/UgkxC_wrKb2ENtwOXje4JvsVy19MpmaiJMBq?si=9OIqdeUSH6Q-UVfO
Rep 53.9
Dem 45.0
2024:
Rep 59.5
Dem 38.1
So Rep lead cut from 21.4 to 8.9 which is a reduction of 12.5 points.
Has to be very encouraging for the Democrats. Anything like that in the Midterms and they will win very easily.
Much easier to say OrangeManBad.
As with the UK discussion about the new Chinese Embassy in London, it’s very clear they are not our friends and are trying to extract huge amounts of intelligence material from Western countries.
Assuming they’re a little better at vetting candidates in swing districts, it’s still possible they could do very well next year.
Turnout was low though, only around 60% of what it was last year in the same seat.
I don't think you can read much into it either way, other than that the GOP is unpopular. It's not a great data point for assessing how unpopular.
I’m thinking it could be a couple of dozen, which would mean a similar Dem majority as the GOP got in 2010 against Obama, leading to a lame duck session unable to pass anything of note.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses
Here’s Pete Hegseth in 2016 saying there should be consequences for people who commit war crimes—that members of the military shouldn’t follow illegal orders from the President: “If you’re doing something that is just completely unlawful and ruthless, then there is a consequence for that. That’s why the military said it won’t follow unlawful orders from their commander in chief.”
https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1995964443532943761
Woah. Newsmax’s legal analyst just said Pete Hegseth and everyone involved in the illegal boat strike should be “prosecuted for a war crime.”
They’ve even lost Newsmax on this one.
https://x.com/KaivanShroff/status/1995979895155957761
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1995925724977606966
He was due to have launched with SpaceX next year to the ISS, one of very few programmes that have survived Russian sanctions, and is now even more important due to the loss of the launch pad in Khazakstan last week.
He was caught smuggling files and images of classified or confidential material out of the training base, and will be replaced with the designated backup cosmonaut for the mission.
The reality is, though, that the Republicans will almost certainly still control the Senate (albeit maybe down a Senator or two), and will definitely control the Presidency. So the likelihood of anything passing both houses of Congress and the Senate is small.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/dec/02/rape-victims-england-wales-protected-serial-liar-trope-legal-shake-up
Rape victims will no longer be depicted as serial liars in courtrooms in England and Wales as part of the biggest shake-up “in a generation”, the Guardian can reveal.
New measures will stop the “profound injustice” of victims being questioned, sometimes without warning, about past rapes that they have reported to the police, said David Lammy, the justice secretary.
Lammy, who on Tuesday announced jury trials would be scrapped for cases where sentences are likely to be less than three years, said too many rape victims left the criminal justice system feeling like they had been put on trial, with defence barristers using sensitive details of past relationships and abuse to discredit them.
He said: “That is a profound injustice, and it has driven far too many women and girls out of the justice system altogether. This must stop, and our new reforms will ensure that survivors are not demonised for the abuse they have suffered.”
Under new laws, “bad character” evidence related to a victim’s past sexual history or abuse will no longer be allowed, unless lawyers have evidence to suggest a complainant has previously lied. Previous compensation claims for experiences of crime by victims will be banned under similar conditions...
Don't you think it's too soon to be sure about that ?
My iown view (FWIW) is that it's a toss up between the sort of result you describe, and something close to a landslide.
Right now, my view is that it'll be a pretty typical midterm election, with the Democrats winning 20-25 seats, and picking up Maine and probably North Carolina.
Edit: At least if you consider first and second different to second and first, so maybe the nitpick was wrong.