A very marked increase. They are also running a deficit although, to be fair, it is considerably smaller than ours at 1.6% of GDP.
Putin very clearly has absolutely no intention whatsoever of stopping this war.
I saw an estimate the other day that it might cost another €5 - 800 bn to defeat Putin in Ukraine. But 1-2 trillion more to secure Europe's eastern border if Ukraine is abandoned.
Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.
Damn. I thought that was masturbation.
Lord John Whorfin: History is-a made at night. Character is what you are in the dark.
Who I am in the dark is stubbing my toe on the fan heater, then hopping to bed whilst trying not to scream "OH, FUCK THAT HURT" before collapsing on the bed.
Not as heroic as I wanted, but you take what you get.
Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
"Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.
Pause
Unless it's "Superman", of course
(It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)
It’s a pastiche - Dave Cameron and Lex from Greensill
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
If Kemi keeps picking up the pace - and Farage drops the ball as he has over the Budget, which was clearly a Kemi win - then we may get to a point where the voters assess the only way to get rid of Starmer with his massive majority is to vote the Tories back. Stll three and half years, but I am getting more confident that is where it will end up.
Feel free to put a pin in this post.
Badenoch is polling about 5% lower than the worst Tory defeat in 2 centuries, mid term against a desperately unpopular government.
I think the Tories are more likely to lose further seats than to gain them. Its why these rats are defecting.
There's a mixture of despair and complacency within the Tory ranks. Some are looking at other options, either because they like the look of them or fear it is their only option, or they are acting like they have all the time in the world and things will inevitably swing back.
Worth remembering that on some of the polling the Tories could have ended up with sub-100 seats. IIRC on the night the initial results suggested they might do a little better (if still horribly) at more like 140/150 seats, until the LDs swept the southern golden arch.
There was an awful lot of wank about the Tories losing all their seats. On here.
Not the finest hour for the supposed "experts" on political betting.
Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
"Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.
Pause
Unless it's "Superman", of course
(It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)
Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
"...Carmello, get me Eric Dale here by six-thirty. It's done..."
It's one of the weirdest films ever. It consists of people reciting numbers to each other, mostly their salaries, but the crucial numbers - the values of the assets - are left vague, described only in superlatives - "we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of (pause) capitalism". Everything about it is brilliant - check out the colour grading - and I really like the rumour that Kevin Spacey burying his dog in the end of the film is reflected in the first scene of "House of Cards", when the other Kevin Spacey character kills his dog.
Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.
The problem for Starmer and Reeves is that not only are they lacking any actual integrity, they aren't any good at faking it for the video cameras either, which is particularly problematic when you've tried to sell yourselves as the sober responsible adults in the room.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
I doubt it. The "vibe" around Ed Davey is far too social democrat and playground suck up.
It isn't really, Ed Davey was even a member of David Cameron's government. Indeed I would say Davey is the most classically liberal LD leader this century after Nick Clegg and well to the right certainly on economics of the likes of Charles Kennedy, Tim Farron or even Vince Cable, Ming Campbell and Paddy Ashdown. Hence the LDs now represent so many ex Tory Remain voting seats in the South
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.
The problem for Starmer and Reeves is that not only are they lacking any actual integrity, they aren't any good at faking it for the video cameras either, which is particularly problematic when you've tried to sell yourselves as the sober responsible adults in the room.
Reeves is before the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday
It will be interesting to see if Richard Hughes goes nuclear on his interactions with the Treasury and Reeves
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
It is possible to obtain a blue badge even if you don't have a car. It enables the person driving you to park conveniently for your needs.
My late MiL kept one long after she had given up her car so her daughter could drive her around. It really is essential that it is not tied to any particular vehicle.
Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.
The problem for Starmer and Reeves is that not only are they lacking any actual integrity, they aren't any good at faking it for the video cameras either, which is particularly problematic when you've tried to sell yourselves as the sober responsible adults in the room.
Reeves is before the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday
It will be interesting to see if Richard Hughes goes nuclear on his interactions with the Treasury and Reeves
A nice succinct & wide-reaching summary of the tensions around Trump, Hegseth, MAGA & Co. 10 minutes from a Youtube channel A Different Bias. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyKWtW40o88
When I watched that, it struck me that Mr Corbyn has a great deal in common with Mr Trump, with them both having the strong desire for peace.
Not entirely sure that is right. Trump is looking for a piece of the action for his own personal benefit. Corbyn's idea of peace is that the side he is against (usually us or Israel) simply gives in.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.
Damn. I thought that was masturbation.
Lord John Whorfin: History is-a made at night. Character is what you are in the dark.
Who I am in the dark is stubbing my toe on the fan heater, then hopping to bed whilst trying not to scream "OH, FUCK THAT HURT" before collapsing on the bed.
Not as heroic as I wanted, but you take what you get.
Obviously the CIEEM [Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management] are against it, but whisper quietly that some of their members might be happy not to have to deal with such nonsense.
Might reduce a bit of the red tape, although not for big developments.
On the other hand, I think it will now be mandatory for national infrastructure projects. Swings and roundabouts...
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
If Kemi keeps picking up the pace - and Farage drops the ball as he has over the Budget, which was clearly a Kemi win - then we may get to a point where the voters assess the only way to get rid of Starmer with his massive majority is to vote the Tories back. Stll three and half years, but I am getting more confident that is where it will end up.
Feel free to put a pin in this post.
Badenoch is polling about 5% lower than the worst Tory defeat in 2 centuries, mid term against a desperately unpopular government.
I think the Tories are more likely to lose further seats than to gain them. Its why these rats are defecting.
There's a mixture of despair and complacency within the Tory ranks. Some are looking at other options, either because they like the look of them or fear it is their only option, or they are acting like they have all the time in the world and things will inevitably swing back.
Worth remembering that on some of the polling the Tories could have ended up with sub-100 seats. IIRC on the night the initial results suggested they might do a little better (if still horribly) at more like 140/150 seats, until the LDs swept the southern golden arch.
There was an awful lot of wank about the Tories losing all their seats. On here.
Not the finest hour for the supposed "experts" on political betting.
Not really..most people thought they could go sub 100 seats..they were close to doing so..and still on course to do so..🧐
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
Proportions look odd - many more Scots and Welsh as % population?
Those numbers seem to be about 10-15% too low. Are they quite old?
Though there seems to have been a rapid increase in the last 3-4 years.
(Google. Scotland: 240k in 2021. 325k April 2025. Govt stats page England: 2.84 million Blue Badges were held in England, an increase of 10% compared to March 2023)
Prediction: the next disabled benefit to be targeted after Motability and PIP by the tabloids. It will be "why can these people park on yellow lines and make MY life more difficult.
Yes, there's been a fraud problem for a long time. I'm not sure if it has been successfully addressed.
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
It is possible to obtain a blue badge even if you don't have a car. It enables the person driving you to park conveniently for your needs.
My late MiL kept one long after she had given up her car so her daughter could drive her around. It really is essential that it is not tied to any particular vehicle.
Whenever my council do enforcement they catch loads of people with fake ones. Weirdly, this kind of crackdown causes a lot of outrage on social media, which completely baffles me given these people are taking spots away from disabled folk. Arseholes of the highest order.
I would note that disabled people have a significantly lower rate of access to cars than the rest of the population, and are much higher users of buses (nearly double the rate), so a focus on disabled parking only does not cut the mustard when it comes to accessibility.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
Are Labour in the contest? I have a fairly wide ranging acquaintance that includes people on UC. I don't know a single person who wants another 5 years of Starmer - only on PB.
Ukraine attacking that shadow fleet tanker of Senegal is an interesting intervention.
It has the feel of German WW1 and WW2 commerce raiders in the Pacific.
(I wonder just how many Ukraine Navy units are kept out of the Black Sea by the Montreux convention, and what they are doing . They have had a couple of big Sandown Class Minehunters from the RN for some time just marking time, but they are big enough for major operations.)
Ukraine attacking that shadow fleet tanker of Senegal is an interesting intervention.
It has the feel of German WW1 and WW2 commerce raiders in the Pacific.
(I wonder just how many Ukraine Navy units are kept out of the Black Sea by the Montreux convention, and what they are doing . They have had a couple of big Sandown Class Minehunters from the RN for some time just marking time, but they are big enough for major operations.)
Then Russian naval units get so spooked that they start shooting at fishing boats on Dogger Bank.....
Quite obviously, these re-badged Tories think defecting is the only way they stand a chance of getting back their seats on the gravy train. It would be karma if Reform imploded before the election comes and another Tory gets the seat instead; at least it will be a fresh face who hasn't failed already.
The almost-iron law of defectors is that they are great news for the receiving party on the day of the announcement, and bad news thereafter.
Yes, the more white working class the seat the more likely the careerist ex Tory MP is to go to Reform and the posher the seat the more likely the ex Tory MP is to stay Tory. I can't see the ex Tory MPs for Kensington, Chelsea, Henley, Epsom and Ewell and Winchester going Reform for example, you would have to be very ideologically attracted by Farage to go Reform in a Remain or soft Leave ex Tory seat as an ex Tory MP in London and the Home Counties for example
Oddly, one of those Tory ex-MPs was considering defecting to Reform, a source close to the ex-MP told me.
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
It is possible to obtain a blue badge even if you don't have a car. It enables the person driving you to park conveniently for your needs.
My late MiL kept one long after she had given up her car so her daughter could drive her around. It really is essential that it is not tied to any particular vehicle.
Whenever my council do enforcement they catch loads of people with fake ones. Weirdly, this kind of crackdown causes a lot of outrage on social media, which completely baffles me given these people are taking spots away from disabled folk. Arseholes of the highest order.
I would note that disabled people have a significantly lower rate of access to cars than the rest of the population, and are much higher users of buses (nearly double the rate), so a focus on disabled parking only does not cut the mustard when it comes to accessibility.
Yes. That's one of my go to statistics in arguments for mobility tracks and accessible footpaths. 40% of disabled adults and 1/3 of pensioners do not / can not have driving licences, never mind access to cars.
Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.
Damn. I thought that was masturbation.
Lord John Whorfin: History is-a made at night. Character is what you are in the dark.
Who I am in the dark is stubbing my toe on the fan heater, then hopping to bed whilst trying not to scream "OH, FUCK THAT HURT" before collapsing on the bed.
Not as heroic as I wanted, but you take what you get.
I once broke my little toe (it was pointing out at 45-60 degrees) by cracking it against a kitchen cupboard while walking about without slippers. Queue a very, very long wait at A&E.
Once I was let behind the curtain I was ushered into a cubical and left to wait. Meanwhile I could hear a lot of fuss from the cubicle next to me. Eventually a nurse popped her head in and said "We don't treat that - just wear tight socks. Bye.".
As I was hobbling out - I noticed the next-door cubicle patient was a very handsome Australian blond-haired surfer dude with a little toe injury being 'treated' by about fifty nurses.
Lessons learned : 1) wear slippers. 2) become a very handsome surfer dude.
Ukraine attacking that shadow fleet tanker of Senegal is an interesting intervention.
It has the feel of German WW1 and WW2 commerce raiders in the Pacific.
(I wonder just how many Ukraine Navy units are kept out of the Black Sea by the Montreux convention, and what they are doing . They have had a couple of big Sandown Class Minehunters from the RN for some time just marking time, but they are big enough for major operations.)
I saw one of the Ukranian minehunters in the Solent a couple of months back.
These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.
Really, they aren't.
The only defection that will be regretted on a personal basis is Danny Kruger.
These three, along with Andrea Jenkyns, Nadine Dorries, et al, look like members of a political version of the Addams Family.
You remind me of Alastair Meeks.
I was trying to characterise the defectees, and Gullis is of the same stripe as Lee Anderson, though imo majoring on knuckle-dragging rather than xenophobia. I don't really know the other two well-enough to summarise.
Gullis had a ministerial career of around 7 weeks under Liz Truss, before Rishi Sunak returned him to the backbenches.
Ukraine attacking that shadow fleet tanker of Senegal is an interesting intervention.
It has the feel of German WW1 and WW2 commerce raiders in the Pacific.
(I wonder just how many Ukraine Navy units are kept out of the Black Sea by the Montreux convention, and what they are doing . They have had a couple of big Sandown Class Minehunters from the RN for some time just marking time, but they are big enough for major operations.)
Then Russian naval units get so spooked that they start shooting at fishing boats on Dogger Bank.....
First, there's NFW a U.S. admiral would order such a thing unless following orders from above.
Second, that's one of the reasons officers shouldn't follow clearly illegal orders - those who do are likely yo be thrown under the bus.
The other admiral, who resigned, did so for a reason.
The tree is shaking, and the monkeys are gripping on more desperately, and the justifications are becoming more querulous.
AFAICS someone is bang to rights under both international law and USA domestic law. I've heard a bit of chatter (passing mentions on credible Youtube, including from former JAG aka Judge Advocate General legal people) about legal exposure and domestic USA legal actions.
I'll shut up now ... admin to do and too many short posts !
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
Proportions look odd - many more Scots and Welsh as % population?
Those numbers seem to be about 10-15% too low. Are they quite old?
Though there seems to have been a rapid increase in the last 3-4 years.
(Google. Scotland: 240k in 2021. 325k April 2025. Govt stats page England: 2.84 million Blue Badges were held in England, an increase of 10% compared to March 2023)
Prediction: the next disabled benefit to be targeted after Motability and PIP by the tabloids. It will be "why can these people park on yellow lines and make MY life more difficult.
Yes, there's been a fraud problem for a long time. I'm not sure if it has been successfully addressed.
On one hand, there is a category difference- there isn't any cash involved, unlike Motability or PIP. But once you start riding the "it's not fair that they get something nice" tiger, it's not easy to dismount.
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
Proportions look odd - many more Scots and Welsh as % population?
Those numbers seem to be about 10-15% too low. Are they quite old?
Though there seems to have been a rapid increase in the last 3-4 years.
(Google. Scotland: 240k in 2021. 325k April 2025. Govt stats page England: 2.84 million Blue Badges were held in England, an increase of 10% compared to March 2023)
Prediction: the next disabled benefit to be targeted after Motability and PIP by the tabloids. It will be "why can these people park on yellow lines and make MY life more difficult.
Yes, there's been a fraud problem for a long time. I'm not sure if it has been successfully addressed.
On one hand, there is a category difference- there isn't any cash involved, unlike Motability or PIP. But once you start riding the "it's not fair that they get something nice" tiger, it's not easy to dismount.
There's a little cash: money saved on car parks. But it's not a huge factor, because of the three hour time limit - and it's not normally the government's cash (save for VAT).
What percentage of people have a blue badge for parking?
2,635,428 in England
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
Proportions look odd - many more Scots and Welsh as % population?
Those numbers seem to be about 10-15% too low. Are they quite old?
Though there seems to have been a rapid increase in the last 3-4 years.
(Google. Scotland: 240k in 2021. 325k April 2025. Govt stats page England: 2.84 million Blue Badges were held in England, an increase of 10% compared to March 2023)
Prediction: the next disabled benefit to be targeted after Motability and PIP by the tabloids. It will be "why can these people park on yellow lines and make MY life more difficult.
Yes, there's been a fraud problem for a long time. I'm not sure if it has been successfully addressed.
On one hand, there is a category difference- there isn't any cash involved, unlike Motability or PIP. But once you start riding the "it's not fair that they get something nice" tiger, it's not easy to dismount.
Worse, much worse. They get in the wayt of the entitled folk with backless gloves, who see having to walk an extra 10 woke metres as almost there in the way of implementing 15 minute neighbourhoods.
(I'm glad you said that, actually. That was my immediate reaction to the Concerned Questions being asked on PB tonight.)
Indiana Senate Republican Jean Leising, an opponent of redistricting, says her home was the target of a pipe bomb threat. She says she hopes her colleague won’t “cave” to the rolling threats, swattings and texts over redistricting. https://x.com/adamwren/status/1995273829795733903
Indiana Senate Republican Jean Leising, an opponent of redistricting, says her home was the target of a pipe bomb threat. She says she hopes her colleague won’t “cave” to the rolling threats, swattings and texts over redistricting. https://x.com/adamwren/status/1995273829795733903
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
It is less problematic for the LDs to be anti-Reform than it is for the Tories to pick a side.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
It is less problematic for the LDs to be anti-Reform than it is for the Tories to pick a side.
Well, yes but it depends on whether the public mood is more strongly anti-Labour than anti-Reform by the time of the election and indeed during the campaign.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
It is less problematic for the LDs to be anti-Reform than it is for the Tories to pick a side.
The problem for the LDs is that a majority of their voters might actually back Reform over Labour in a forced choice, whereas their activists certainly wouldn't.
It would be good if Republicans in Congress could grow a spine and push back on the collapse of democracy and the rule of law in the US. What have we had this week? War crimes. Releasing fraudsters. Illegally appointed US attorneys. And continued efforts to hand Ukrainian territory over to Russia.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
It is less problematic for the LDs to be anti-Reform than it is for the Tories to pick a side.
The problem for the LDs is that a majority of their voters might actually back Reform over Labour in a forced choice, whereas their activists certainly wouldn't.
The polling strongly supports the contention that that's nonsense. LD voters prefer Labour to Reform too.
It would be good if Republicans in Congress could grow a spine and push back on the collapse of democracy and the rule of law in the US. What have we had this week? War crimes. Releasing fraudsters. Illegally appointed US attorneys. And continued efforts to hand Ukrainian territory over to Russia.
Their hands are too steeped in blood at this point. They campaigned on this ticket. They kissed the ring. They appointed all of the lunatic cabinet members.
The smart(er) ones have already announced their retirement.
Kelly: When Trump was driving the Taj Mahal Casino into bankruptcy, I was being shot at over Iraq…. When Trump was writing birthday greetings to Epstein, I was the first on the scene to recover the bodies of my fellow astronauts… When Trump was peddling conspiracy theories against President Obama, I was sitting next to my wife’s hospital bed… I’ve been through a lot worse in service to my country. The President and Pete Hegseth are not going to silence me.
BREAKING: Senator Kelly just unloaded on Trump, calling out how Trump was bragging about his "tallest building" on 9/11 and writing birthday cards to Epstein while Kelly was doing heroic, patriotic things.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-New Jersey), long one of Washington’s most eligible bachelors, is officially off the market.
The 56-year-old married Alexis Lewis, 38, in an intimate ceremony Saturday in Washington, D.C., trading in years of public speculation about his love life for a new ring on his left hand.
Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
"Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.
Pause
Unless it's "Superman", of course
(It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)
Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
"...Carmello, get me Eric Dale here by six-thirty. It's done..."
It's one of the weirdest films ever. It consists of people reciting numbers to each other, mostly their salaries, but the crucial numbers - the values of the assets - are left vague, described only in superlatives - "we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of (pause) capitalism". Everything about it is brilliant - check out the colour grading - and I really like the rumour that Kevin Spacey burying his dog in the end of the film is reflected in the first scene of "House of Cards", when the other Kevin Spacey character kills his dog.
The portrayal of a bank CEO was spot on - instead of the Hollywood how-do-we-ignore-this-and-cover-it-up-so-we-all-go-to-jail-in-the-last-five-minutes, he goes straight for the win.
Indeed. I'm looking at the clips again for the "nth" time and I *think* Jeremy Irons is the only character with a red tie. He does have an absolute stormer of a speech and he eats the words, desk, and possibly downtown Manhattan as he does so: he's having a whale of a time, and so am I. He's basically Scar on two legs. "So. That WE. MAY SURRRVIVE"
A bigger beast than Scar, and more comfortable in his own skin.
Scar was his best role, though, I think ? Decades on, I can still do the languid, resentful drawl: "...Life's not fair, is it ?"
Obviously the CIEEM [Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management] are against it, but whisper quietly that some of their members might be happy not to have to deal with such nonsense.
Might reduce a bit of the red tape, although not for big developments.
On the other hand, I think it will now be mandatory for national infrastructure projects. Swings and roundabouts...
That has potential to unclog a lot of currently clogged up developments.
I don't think I quite understand the fuss about this double tap attack on the boat. Wasn't this Obama's favourite thing to do to? Or was that better because it was on land?
I don't think I quite understand the fuss about this double tap attack on the boat. Wasn't this Obama's favourite thing to do to? Or was that better because it was on land?
I don't think I quite understand the fuss about this double tap attack on the boat. Wasn't this Obama's favourite thing to do to? Or was that better because it was on land?
Yes, and it's seen as one of the great flaws in Obama's presidency, much criticised at the time.
I've seen this excuse put up a few times but comparing it to something that was wrong and probably illegal kinda isn't the most effective defence. Indeed Obama actually reported his strikes and their civilian casualties - we have no idea how many Trump is doing, or to whom, because he cancelled that policy.
One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.
Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.
For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD. Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.
You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.
They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.
If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.
It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.
Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Indeed, once a LD MP or councillor gets in getting rid of them is like removing Japanese knotweed.
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
Both the LDs and Conservatives have a lot of thinking to do IF the next election develops into a Reform vs Labour contest.
It is less problematic for the LDs to be anti-Reform than it is for the Tories to pick a side.
The problem for the LDs is that a majority of their voters might actually back Reform over Labour in a forced choice, whereas their activists certainly wouldn't.
What forced choice ? In LibDem seats, that's really not a thing.
BREAKING: Senator Kelly just unloaded on Trump, calling out how Trump was bragging about his "tallest building" on 9/11 and writing birthday cards to Epstein while Kelly was doing heroic, patriotic things.
I don't think I quite understand the fuss about this double tap attack on the boat. Wasn't this Obama's favourite thing to do to? Or was that better because it was on land?
It slightly concerns me that we might be confounding social media effects with general screen use and also with Covid. Clearly something has gone wrong but what? There seem to be more road rage incidents, for example, and even air rage. Surely that is not because 6-year-olds have Smartphones, or because schools closed during the second lockdown. As President Trump and RFKjr have noted, neurodivergence has shot up. SEND diagnoses are bankrupting councils. We urgently need more research and less airing of prejudices.
Comments
But 1-2 trillion more to secure Europe's eastern border if Ukraine is abandoned.
Not as heroic as I wanted, but you take what you get.
Owen Jones
@owenjonesjourno
Does Your Party offer something different to the Green Party?
Here's what @jeremycorbyn had to say.
https://x.com/owenjonesjourno/status/1995487881104617798
https://media.gettyimages.com/id/851982914/photo/john-redwood-at-a-westminster-news-conference-after-declaring-himself-a-candidate-in-the.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=uFcYHpsXrb-6dh90GriwSovQRkEMfs0FrQs_9NJLWew=
Not the finest hour for the supposed "experts" on political betting.
Percentage of journeys would be a better stat, but I can't find that.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/disability-accessibility-and-blue-badge-scheme-statistics-2023-to-2024/disability-accessibility-and-blue-badge-statistics-england-2023-to-2024
There's of course a new mantra in town "vote Conservative and get Reform" which might get an airing or two before 2029.
271,966 in Scotland
219, 614 in Wales
149,038 in Northern Ireland
I would just say it is not something to aspire to and the criteria are very strict
Reporter: The NYT reported that you had a phone call with Maduro. Did you?
Trump: I don’t want to comment on it. The answer is yes.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1995270297466147120
Whereas whether a Tory or Labour MP or councillor holds their seat largely depends on the national swing.
A Labour and LD coalition would also likely be less fatal for the LDs than the Tory coalition was, as more LD voters now prefer Starmer as PM over Farage and Badenoch than preferred Cameron over Ed Miliband as PM back then
It will be interesting to see if Richard Hughes goes nuclear on his interactions with the Treasury and Reeves
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15341659/Scale-social-media-use-pre-school-children-deeply-alarming-nearly-1-million-using-apps-left-unable-sit-straight-suffering-anxiety-behavioural-problems-report-warns.html
Why aren't we banning it like Australia?
A nice succinct & wide-reaching summary of the tensions around Trump, Hegseth, MAGA & Co.
10 minutes from a Youtube channel A Different Bias.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyKWtW40o88
Silently sobbing is more appropriate.
I see the government is considering exempting most small developments from the Biodiversity Net Gain requirements:
https://cieem.net/cieem-calls-on-members-to-help-defend-bng/
Obviously the CIEEM [Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management] are against it, but whisper quietly that some of their members might be happy not to have to deal with such nonsense.
Might reduce a bit of the red tape, although not for big developments.
On the other hand, I think it will now be mandatory for national infrastructure projects. Swings and roundabouts...
NHS to pay 25% more for innovative drugs after UK–US zero-tariff deal
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/01/uk-us-agree-zero-tariff-pharmaceuticals-deal
They've also cut the 'rebate' the industry pays back to the NHS.
https://x.com/cjsnowdon/status/1995510698055516314
Though there seems to have been a rapid increase in the last 3-4 years.
(Google. Scotland: 240k in 2021. 325k April 2025.
Govt stats page England: 2.84 million Blue Badges were held in England, an increase of 10% compared to March 2023)
Prediction: the next disabled benefit to be targeted after Motability and PIP by the tabloids. It will be "why can these people park on yellow lines and make MY life more difficult.
Yes, there's been a fraud problem for a long time. I'm not sure if it has been successfully addressed.
I would note that disabled people have a significantly lower rate of access to cars than the rest of the population, and are much higher users of buses (nearly double the rate), so a focus on disabled parking only does not cut the mustard when it comes to accessibility.
It has the feel of German WW1 and WW2 commerce raiders in the Pacific.
(I wonder just how many Ukraine Navy units are kept out of the Black Sea by the Montreux convention, and what they are doing
Once I was let behind the curtain I was ushered into a cubical and left to wait. Meanwhile I could hear a lot of fuss from the cubicle next to me. Eventually a nurse popped her head in and said "We don't treat that - just wear tight socks. Bye.".
As I was hobbling out - I noticed the next-door cubicle patient was a very handsome Australian blond-haired surfer dude with a little toe injury being 'treated' by about fifty nurses.
Lessons learned : 1) wear slippers. 2) become a very handsome surfer dude.
So far I have achieved 1) with some aplomb.
Gullis had a ministerial career of around 7 weeks under Liz Truss, before Rishi Sunak returned him to the backbenches.
"UKRAINIAN TORPEDO BOATS".
Now they appear to have decided on a scapegoat.
JUST IN: Adm. Bradley gave the order for the 2nd strike on Venezuela boat, WH Press Sec. Karoline Leavitt says during briefing.
Says Bradley was within legal right to order the second strike.
So: WH not disputing the second strike, but is disputing Hegseth gave "kill" order.
https://x.com/alexbward/status/1995566141666894075
Two points ..
First, there's NFW a U.S. admiral would order such a thing unless following orders from above.
Second, that's one of the reasons officers shouldn't follow clearly illegal orders - those who do are likely yo be thrown under the bus.
The other admiral, who resigned, did so for a reason.
(Ukraine the Latest)
A further note is that Venezuela is affiliated to the International Criminal Court.
https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2025/dec/01/posh-poor-divide-the-rise-in-areas-of-england-where-wealth-and-deprivation-appear-side-by-side
AFAICS someone is bang to rights under both international law and USA domestic law. I've heard a bit of chatter (passing mentions on credible Youtube, including from former JAG aka Judge Advocate General legal people) about legal exposure and domestic USA legal actions.
I'll shut up now ... admin to do and too many short posts !
I doubt he'll make the weekend.
(I'm glad you said that, actually. That was my immediate reaction to the Concerned Questions being asked on PB tonight.)
https://x.com/adamwren/status/1995273829795733903
Today the Whitehouse confirmed it
https://x.com/donwinslow/status/1995597643805065507?s=20
THUNE takes a pass on supporting HEGSETH
https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/1995608292496957591?s=20
This time around it seems no stupidity, corruption or incompetence gets a sacking.
It will, but maybe not just yet
The smart(er) ones have already announced their retirement.
He's going to illegally bomb them on land to distract from the story about (checks notes) illegally bombing them at sea
Acyn
@Acyn
Kelly: When Trump was driving the Taj Mahal Casino into bankruptcy, I was being shot at over Iraq…. When Trump was writing birthday greetings to Epstein, I was the first on the scene to recover the bodies of my fellow astronauts… When Trump was peddling conspiracy theories against President Obama, I was sitting next to my wife’s hospital bed… I’ve been through a lot worse in service to my country. The President and Pete Hegseth are not going to silence me.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1995597872809771065
BREAKING: Senator Kelly just unloaded on Trump, calling out how Trump was bragging about his "tallest building" on 9/11 and writing birthday cards to Epstein while Kelly was doing heroic, patriotic things.
"The President and Hegseth will not silence me."
https://x.com/ReallyAmerican1/status/1995603260091379817?s=20
We are about 4 hours and a few gins away from @PeteHegseth posting
"YOU'RE GOD DAMN RIGHT I ORDERED THE SECOND STRIKE!!!"
Hegseth is doing what he wants. Why would he let him go?
He should go, but he won't.
He should never have been there in the first place.
Trump should never have been re-elected in the first place.
Trump should never have been elected in the first place.
But we are where we are, and these bastards have three years and just under 2 months left in office. Whether we like it or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FndFBuExSLY&t=41s
I'm not sure on the scale of the upside.
Department of Defense Law of War Manual, Sec. 18.3.2.1 states the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders.
What’s its key example? Wait for it . . . It’s "orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."
Because others in the administration want Driscoll.
I've seen this excuse put up a few times but comparing it to something that was wrong and probably illegal kinda isn't the most effective defence. Indeed Obama actually reported his strikes and their civilian casualties - we have no idea how many Trump is doing, or to whom, because he cancelled that policy.
In LibDem seats, that's really not a thing.
Or maybe the 3rd tbh.