Russia Today and the Fremen Mirage – politicalbetting.com
Russia Today and the Fremen Mirage – politicalbetting.com
It’s a truism of pop history that wealthy “civilised” states are always at a disadvantage, when fighting against poorer but tougher adversaries, whether those enemies are steppe horsemen, desert tribes, guerillas, or religious fanatics. In more modern times, the weakness of democratic nations (attempting as they do, to adhere to the Law of Armed Conflict, and being wary of heavy casualties), is contra…
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* immediate ceasefire at current line of contact
* negotiations to start re status of occupied territories - expectation that Russia will need to withdraw from Kherson & Zhaporizia but could retain occupied parts of Donbas & Crimea but which shall be demilitarised
* A no-fly zone imposed across all of Ukraine east of Dnieper river (including occupied territories). To be enforced by European air forces
* European (inc Turkey) peace-keeping forces on the ground - subject to Ukrainian agreement.
* Putin & Zhelensky to both stand aside with free elections within 1 year.
* Russia to withdraw immediately to 1991 border
* Putin, Lavrov, Dimitriev, and senior military commanders to be handed over to The Hague.
* 10km DMZ inside Russian territory along border with Ukraine, no-fly zone enforced by NATO
* Ukraine to join NATO with Ukranian agreement, NATO air defences to be positioned on Ukraine/Russia border
* Western assets of Russian state and sanctioned individuals to be paid as reparations to rebuild Ukraine
* UK and France to work with Ukraine on development and deployment of an independent nuclear deterrent.
* Permanent ban on sale of Russian oil and gas to EU and NATO countries.
* Russia to hand over forcibly displaced refugees and PoWs in Russia, Ukraine to hand over PoWs in return.
* Plan for resettlement of international Ukranian refugees, to be followed by a registration process and internationally observed elections within 12 months.
Utterly pissing it down here. Normally I would've got soaked walking the dog, but the horrendous 3.30am time of getting up at least ensured I stayed dry.
F1: feel a bit peeved as there was bad luck at the start and end (reliability and then reliability but too late). Still, I called almost everything wrong but that makes up for last time, I suppose. Qatar next.
Any kind of Russian peace is simply a pause before World War III, so to give up after four years of Russian brutality and aggression will make the world a lot less safe. The UK, EU, Canada and a coalition of the willing must see this through or we will enter a very dark future indeed.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1992450076283932880
Agree entirely on Europe generally (and reliable allies elsewhere) getting used to not relying on the US. It's fickle, unpredictable, and untrustworthy right now, and that should not be assumed to be destined to change.
What's pretty clear is that this was essentially a 'plan' written by Russia, which the US tried to force Ukraine into accepting.
Someone in the administration (not entirely clear who) leaked it to Axios.
It was strongly (and publicly after the leak - see his posts on X) advocated for by Vance, and the faction around him, and spun as a plan authored by the US after 'input' from Russia and Ukraine.
We know, obviously, that there was little or no negotiation with Ukraine, and very public talks between the US (Witkoff) and Russia.
And that neither Europe nor the UK were informed or consulted at all.
Once public, there was almost universal outcry and condemnation from Ukraine's allies.
And now Rubio is briefing GOP and Democratic senators this.
King: According to Secretary Rubio, this plan is not the administration’s position — it is essentially the Russians’ wish list that is now being presented to the Europeans and to the Ukrainians.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1992407926037000619
I do think there's some value in the softened by luxury line, though. It applies to much of Europe. We've got to take a lead here.
SenatorRounds confirms that the 28 point plan was delivered to @SEPeaceMissions
: "This was a proposal which was received by someone who has identified and they believed to be representing Russia in this proposal. It was given to @SteveWitkoff..
https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1992364072860582183
And now from the Deputy Spokesman at Rubio's State Department:
This is blatantly false. *
As Secretary Rubio and the entire Administration has consistently maintained, this plan was authored by the United States, with input from both the Russians and Ukrainians.
https://x.com/StateDeputySpox/status/1992400253547651236
*It clearly isn't blatantly false.
Trump officials' meeting with Russian in Miami spurs questions about Ukraine proposal
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-officials-meeting-with-russian-miami-spurs-questions-about-latest-ukraine-2025-11-22/
Nov 22 (Reuters) - U.S. officials and lawmakers are increasingly concerned about a meeting last month in which representatives of the Trump administration met with Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian envoy who is under U.S. sanctions, to draft a plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The meeting took place in Miami at the end of October and included special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Dmitriev, who leads the Russian Direct Investment Fund, one of Russia's largest sovereign wealth funds.
A close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dmitriev has taken a leading role in talks with the U.S. about the war and has met with Witkoff several times this year. The Trump administration issued a special waiver to allow his entry, a senior U.S. official told Reuters.
The meeting resulted in a 28-point plan for ending the war, two people familiar with the situation said. The plan, which was made public this week by Axios, came as a surprise to U.S. officials in various corners of the administration and has stirred confusion at embassies throughout Washington and in European capitals...
Witkoff is clearly at least one of insane, traitorous or corrupt.
Trump is clearly more clueless than usual (and that is saying something).
Rubio is obviously lying in all directions which suggests he's very angry but also very scared about something (probably Trump's wrath).
Trump is safe. Witkoff is Trump's creature, even if his actions would make Nathan Gilchrist blink. So he's safe.
Any market on Rubio to be gone by year's end?
And having a VP and his coterie who are, for whatever reason, virulently anti-Ukraine (and NATO), with the ear of an ageing president with limited attention span, means that these attempts to sell out Europe will crop up regularly.
This one is just the most blatant.
The US hasn't sold out to Russia like this in decades (if ever).
Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon and Dwight Eisenhower must all be spinning in their graves.
The passage of time has turned the peers, especially those of the Tory variety, bolshie. As the government has become increasingly unpopular, the Lords have waxed more aggressive about attacking Labour’s programme. They are much more powerful from a constitutional point of view than is generally appreciated because they can eat up huge amounts of parliamentary time and ministerial energy.
Almost entirely unreported in the media, anti-government peers have been dragging out proceedings and bogging down legislation for months. Labour might have a massive majority in the Commons, but in the bloated Lords it has just a quarter of the members eligible to attend proceedings.
Law and precedent are supposed to curb the unelected house’s capacity to make mischief. The Salisbury Convention holds that peers should not thwart a government when it is fulfilling a manifesto commitment, as Labour is with both the employment rights bill and the removal of the hereditaries.
Members of the Lords have put forward more than 1,000 proposed changes to the law to facilitate assisted dying. Hundreds of these amendments are apparently the work of just seven opponents of the legislation. Assisted dying is a complex and contentious issue that merits detailed scrutiny. It is a different matter if procedural sabotage is the intent. The Lib Dem peer Lord Goddard warned his fellow peers that they had “a duty” to treat the bill “with respect, not disdain, not threatening to derail it or run it out of time”.
More than one minister I’ve spoken to is bewildered that Number 10 seems reluctant to call out the delaying antics and wrecking tactics of vandals in ermine. I am similarly baffled that the government isn’t making more noise about it.
I’d dispute the Lords are doing anything wrong on the AD bill. They are doing their job.
The AD bill was not a manifesto commitment. It looks a complete mess to me.
I'd go with thwarted wannabe alphas- the ones who think that in a proper world, they would automatically be top, but they aren't. The kind who get cross when a jumped up nobody with a lanyard blocks their way. Add gross sex, you get Andrew Tate. Scale it up to a national government, you get Russia.
Trouble is, it doesn't work, not even in warfare. In wars, the richer side usually wins. And counties get rich by all that boring wet stuff about the rule of law being better than the law of the jungle.
There's clearly a factional battle going on, but Trump instinctively tries to maintain that dynamic, rather than settle it one way or the other.
It's not as though he cares about actual policy issues.
If anything, it's more likely that Trump is the first to go - but only if he deteriorates sufficiently to make the 25th inevitable.
Otherwise I would guess the chaos continues.
If Trump were to go, and Vance succeed, then we'd be really screwed - and Rubio's fate a minor consideration.
In other words, what is better than a North London derby? Shame it's at the Emirates..
https://www.fia.com/system/files/decision-document/2025_las_vegas_grand_prix_-_skid_wear_of_car_numbers_81_and_04.pdf
I'll have to check the Ladbrokes market to see if Russell ends up settled as a winner.
There is a meanings slice of public opinion for whom any process making assisted dying legal is simply wrong, any safeguards put in place inadequate. Trying to kill such a bill by strangling it with amendments is a standard political game, that all sorts of people have done.
That it's allowed, and has precedent, doesn't make it right, though.
Of course, if his marriage does collapse over one of his affairs that may hurt him in MAGAland (although it doesn't seem to hurt Trump).
https://x.com/AntonLaGuardia/status/1992412662987358243
Foreign nations now have to deal with rival factions of the U.S. government who keep major policy initiatives secret from each other and some of which work with foreign powers as the succession battle for 2028 begins, is how one diplomat put it.
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1992414242923016202
Trying to kill the bill is an accusation by its supporters and well funded lobbyists. The Lords are trying to get the bill right, it’s a highly controversial topic and needs to be right, from the little I’ve seen the safeguards are currently inadequate.
Commons average age - 49.
Lords average age - 71
Also, 5 place grid penalty for Bortoleto. Entirely fair.
The US administration are so thick they couldn’t even be bothered to get a professional translation of the plan that was handed to them by the Kremlin .
Rubio can say what ever he likes now . No one’s believing his denials . One of the senators who was in the meeting with Rubio is from the GOP so hardly a Dem hoax .
Have a good day, everyone.
Short of adding a "We Love Vladimir Putin Day" to the Ukrainian calendar it could scarcely be more obvious.
Europe (including us) has to provide Ukraine with diplomatic and other support. Or this rigmarole will recur in a few years down the line.
It looks as though they've now decided to go for Plan B.
The more that members of the Trump administration talk, the more it sounds as if Plan A to stop the war was to coerce Ukraine into capitulation and Plan B was to keep repeating Plan A until it worked. When it became apparent that wasn't going to happen, they were out of ideas.
https://x.com/ruth_deyermond/status/1950973119448932545
Ladbrokes, however, have been pretty solid. Have to wait a bit to see if they switch things around. Assuming Norris is disqualified.
It seems to have unified people across politics.
Trump rolling back and saying it’s not a final plan too.
Which is also not a good look but is also in no way unusual given his obvious lack of mental grip.
Not sure about that..
Hmmmmmm...
Wonder whether technical failures were the only thing on the panel's mind?
Reminds me of the time Schumacher and Irvine were disqualified in Malaysia (in 2000, I think) for their barge boards being incorrectly sized and hurriedly reinstated so that Mika Hakkinen wouldn't be champion with a race left to run.
Edit - it was in 1999, but the right sort of idea.
A couple of points:
Yes, civilised democracies are not necessarily losers; but they can be. The civilised democracy experiment is new. What, I think, it needs to maintain is not a Sparta culture but a substantial 'warrior class' and also a 'warrior ethos' throughout the majority of the population. Through most of my life this has been marginalised and treated by most of the middle class as if it is a matter mostly to be delegated to other groups and other nations, especially the USA, and other means, especially the nuclear deterrent. The evidence that the UK population is really willing for massive sacrifice in place of surrender is not strong and I only have to look into myself to see that.
Second, and changing the subject, the article ends with the ringing words:
“In crises, the most daring course is often safest.”
By the end of the week we will perhaps know if the current government has heeded the message. If the budget does a 1981 and cuts spending, raises taxes and explains the fiscal plan and how delusional we have been since 2008 then Labour may have a chance of regaining credibility.
It is pretty impressive that Verstappen has managed such a chronically uncompetitive car to still be in contention for the WDC with two races to go.
From that point of view, he does resemble Michael Schumacher.
And in other ways also, it has to be said...
As an aside just recovering an old hard drive and found a campaign leaflet from No2ID from 2011.! Seems the same stuff comes round regularly
Or might even win and be runner up.
No wonder Piastri is complaining about favouritism.
But because they're a very long way back, you may not see them.
The battlefield must be a terrifying place. But as ever, if you want peace, you must prepare for war.
The HoL needs to be bumped off, a sensible democratically elected second chamber should replace it. It might lose some positive attributes but it's an affront to democracy.
On assisted dying, I thought, I suspect wrongly, that quality of life rather than life at all cost, was an NHS tenet. Hence QALYs as a measurement.
There are some lucky enough to have a healthy old age, but others are in pain, discomfort or in a distressing fog of dementia. The lucky ones, (out of misplaced fear?), seems to want to deny those in pain but still cognitive to end their life in dignity and comfort.
There'll still be 1000s of confused, unhappy old people with dementia sat in their soiled clothing that they refuse to let their carers change, sleeping their life away in bed or in the TV lounge while their lucky contemporaries ignore them.
The reality is that civilians can become excellent soldiers when motivated. Cromwell was a provincial farmer and MP until taking up arms in his forties for example.
It takes a lot of provocation to get a peaceful democracy to fight but it is very effective when that threshold is passed.
Hahahahhaha. This administration can’t tell if their plan is Russian or American. Like watching two monkeys F a football bat
https://x.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1992428446233120813
Considering the Roman Empire, especially the East, suggests very prolonged prosperity is entirely possible.
Half hour vid approximately on this, mostly arguing against Elon Musk's take on population decline leading to Roman fall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr7IeupZYII
We're mostly not being asked to throw ourselves onto the battlefield, just to stump up the cash to produce the machines for the Ukrainians to use.
We've been reluctant to do that for a while. Alan Clark's Diaries note how his Defence Review was the only way John Major was going to be able to afford tax cuts.
@Stuartinromford I think if you drew a venn diagram, of Russia supporters, wehmarbros, and proponents of the Lost Cause, you'd find a massive overlap. In every case, they are glorifying losers who they think ought to have won.
It is often the case that tougher societies can defeat invaders and will outlast richer invaders with less desire for casualties, as seen by numerous invaders of Afghanistan or in Vietnam. However that also provides encouragement to Ukraine who are clearly willing to keep fighting and endure hardship to remove the Russian invader. Putin ultimately won't last for ever and Russians will eventually tire of their young men dying in a foreign land and Trump will likely be replaced by a Democrat President by the end of the decade willing to give Ukraine the arms and funds and intelligence it needs to finally force the Russians out
Lots to think about. If there is a "Decline and Fall" here it would seem to apply to the USA and not Russia, which has never had anything to decline and fall from.
https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3m6ajfcgewm2y
Currently where some do gooders ensure you can spend years in pain etc jsut because they believe in some crap is shocking. They are desperate to make sur eanimals don't have to suffer pain , yet happy for humans to suffer based on some whacko mumbo jumbo.
Also you can’t criticize the House of Lirds for adding amendments to improve a bill - that’s their job
All good points. People will fight far more ferociously in defence of their home turf, than in a foreign land, where they are dying for the greater glory of the dictators.
Still, the double DSQ would be a marginal improvement for my title betting.