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Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,795
edited November 19 in General
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life – politicalbetting.com

"I would yeah"Labour MP Clive Lewis is asked on #PoliticsLive if he'd give up his seat for Andy Burnhamhttps://t.co/OgZOJeLRyY pic.twitter.com/rzAB3T7kpt

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,444
    edited November 19
    First.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,061
    I had thought that Clive Lewis was a bit further to the left than Andy Burnham.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,565
    The point about the divine wind is that it succeeded twice (1274, 1281 on checking). Failed once (1944-45).

    Admittedly a 1 in 3 failure rate - not satisfactory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,049
    In other news...

    ‪@harrylitman.bsky.social‬

    HUGE development IN hearing for Comey selective prosecution motion, It turns out that the grand jury NEVER saw the operative indictment. Whole separate basis for dismissal. Standby for more.

    https://bsky.app/profile/harrylitman.bsky.social/post/3m5yobzveps2c
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,428
    edited November 19
    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 86
    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 587
    edited November 19
    FPT:
    LostPassword said:

    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    Sandpit said:

    W11 is quickly turning into an AI-led security nightmare.

    Can we have W7 back please?

    I'm increasingly convinced Microsoft's enshittification of Windows is going to get so bad people will actually start jumping ship to Linux, despite that OS being demonstrably crap for desktop use. Previously I thought it's strength in gaming would keep Windows afloat for a long time, because you can't get to be the dominant consumer desktop OS without games, but SteamOS has pretty much blown up that defence.

    It runs almost all Windows games that don't have kernel-level anti-cheat systems, and often runs then better than Windows,
    I think most home users are more likely to use something like an ipad for the things that they don't want to do on a phone, than to use an alternative operating system they've never used before.
    People have been saying that for years, but there's no sign of it happening. Desktops and Laptops continue to sell because there are too many things they do that a tablet can't, or do it substantially better.

    As long as it runs your apps and doesn't get in the way too much, the OS isn't that important. I suspect the friction there is a lot less than Microsoft thinks it is.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,000
    Scott_xP said:

    In other news...

    ‪@harrylitman.bsky.social‬

    HUGE development IN hearing for Comey selective prosecution motion, It turns out that the grand jury NEVER saw the operative indictment. Whole separate basis for dismissal. Standby for more.

    https://bsky.app/profile/harrylitman.bsky.social/post/3m5yobzveps2c

    The DOJ has been significantly corrupted by Trump, but fortunately the courts haven't yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    LostPassword said:

    I had thought that Clive Lewis was a bit further to the left than Andy Burnham.

    He is, Clive Lewis cannot stand Wes Streeting though, he publicly called him a jumped turd (before they were MPs).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    Carnyx said:

    The point about the divine wind is that it succeeded twice (1274, 1281 on checking). Failed once (1944-45).

    Admittedly a 1 in 3 failure rate - not satisfactory.

    What was the survival rate for pilots, but well done for spotting my subtle reference to kamikaze.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    trukat said:

    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.

    Yeah, it's not 1963 any more, albeit that was a genuine by-election reason.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,042
    edited November 19
    LostPassword said:

    I had thought that Clive Lewis was a bit further to the left than Andy Burnham.

    If SKS goes the fav to replace him is Streeting and I think CL's keenness to get Burnham back is driven by his antipathy to that prospect.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,613
    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    FPT:

    LostPassword said:

    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    Sandpit said:

    W11 is quickly turning into an AI-led security nightmare.

    Can we have W7 back please?

    I'm increasingly convinced Microsoft's enshittification of Windows is going to get so bad people will actually start jumping ship to Linux, despite that OS being demonstrably crap for desktop use. Previously I thought it's strength in gaming would keep Windows afloat for a long time, because you can't get to be the dominant consumer desktop OS without games, but SteamOS has pretty much blown up that defence.

    It runs almost all Windows games that don't have kernel-level anti-cheat systems, and often runs then better than Windows,
    I think most home users are more likely to use something like an ipad for the things that they don't want to do on a phone, than to use an alternative operating system they've never used before.
    People have been saying that for years, but there's no sign of it happening. Desktops and Laptops continue to sell because there are too many things they do that a tablet can't, or do it substantially better.

    As long as it runs your apps and doesn't get in the way too much, the OS isn't that important. I suspect the friction there is a lot less than Microsoft thinks it is.
    If Apple go through with the rumoured sub-notebook cheap laptop…
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 744
    trukat said:

    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.

    I suspect Reform will be able to garner right of centre votes better than Green will be able to garner hard left votes. In such a by-election the only important question would be, would Labour be able to hold on to third place, probably not !
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,061
    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    FPT:

    LostPassword said:

    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    Sandpit said:

    W11 is quickly turning into an AI-led security nightmare.

    Can we have W7 back please?

    I'm increasingly convinced Microsoft's enshittification of Windows is going to get so bad people will actually start jumping ship to Linux, despite that OS being demonstrably crap for desktop use. Previously I thought it's strength in gaming would keep Windows afloat for a long time, because you can't get to be the dominant consumer desktop OS without games, but SteamOS has pretty much blown up that defence.

    It runs almost all Windows games that don't have kernel-level anti-cheat systems, and often runs then better than Windows,
    I think most home users are more likely to use something like an ipad for the things that they don't want to do on a phone, than to use an alternative operating system they've never used before.
    People have been saying that for years, but there's no sign of it happening. Desktops and Laptops continue to sell because there are too many things they do that a tablet can't, or do it substantially better.

    As long as it runs your apps and doesn't get in the way too much, the OS isn't that important. I suspect the friction there is a lot less than Microsoft thinks it is.
    We persuaded my mother-in-law to get a new ipad instead of replace her old windows laptop. The only thing she'd used the laptop for before was to create invoices/complete VAT returns for her husband's engineering business, and other things more basic than that.

    Besides my occasional forays into Python programming I can't think of anything that I use my Ubuntu laptop for that I couldn't do with a tablet (which would probably connect to a printer with less bother). I think a lot of people stick to a laptop/desktop because they are used to that, but if Windows enshittification is bad enough that it forces people to change, I think it's more likely to lead to a change in form factor used, rather than a change to using a Linux OS - not least because tablets are already widely available in a way that laptops/desktops running Linux are not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,900
    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    Ian Murray in Edinburgh South one of the safest Lab seats but unless he’s got a serious case of pique from being sacked from SoS unlikely to be winkled out. In any case can’t see the Morningside matrons going for a Manscouser no matter how cute his eyelashes are.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,090
    YouGov's last MRP from late September has Norwich South as 30% Lab/22% Green and, as YouGov's mainstream polling has added a few percent to Green since then, there's definite scope for Labour to have a bad night.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,512
    edited November 19
    The idea that Clive Lewis could stand down for Andy Burnham is ridiculous because Norwich South is one of the Green's top targets and has been for about 15 years. They'd win it easily in a by-election imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,497
    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I think it might depend on the circumstances.
    If it were just to get Burnham into parliament, then the odds on success are pretty poor.

    Might though there be a way to promote a successful switch as a means of forcing out Starmer, in the popular mind ?
    That would improve the odds (though I can't really see how to do it).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,396
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,497
    bondegezou said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In other news...

    ‪@harrylitman.bsky.social‬

    HUGE development IN hearing for Comey selective prosecution motion, It turns out that the grand jury NEVER saw the operative indictment. Whole separate basis for dismissal. Standby for more.

    https://bsky.app/profile/harrylitman.bsky.social/post/3m5yobzveps2c

    The DOJ has been significantly corrupted by Trump, but fortunately the courts haven't yet.
    They certainly have - but incompletely.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,000
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I think it might depend on the circumstances.
    If it were just to get Burnham into parliament, then the odds on success are pretty poor.

    Might though there be a way to promote a successful switch as a means of forcing out Starmer, in the popular mind ?
    That would improve the odds (though I can't really see how to do it).
    Yeah, I don't see how Burnham can be the official Labour Party candidate on a platform of ousting Starmer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,512
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    It's difficult to think of a Labour seat in England that wouldn't be won by either the Greens or Ref in a by-election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,593
    Andy_JS said:

    The idea that Clive Lewis could stand down for Andy Burnham is ridiculous because Norwich South is one of the Green's top targets and has been for about 15 years. They'd win it easily in a by-election imo.

    Be an easy call for Tories to vote Green in the by-election - if it kept Starmer locked in place. 5.8k of them last time.

    Ditto LibDems.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,814
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    So to summarise - you think we should bury this story?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,405
    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    The answer is... yes. But the list is a small one.

    I think you need three things.

    Firstly, it needs to be clear that this is so Andy Burnham can overthrow Starmer as leader. That therefore hopefully allows to attract people who are Labour-friendly, but dislike Starmer. (I.e., you want lots of SouthamObservers.) The vote for Labour in this scenario is a vote against Starmer.

    Secondly, it needs to be a seat where there is a limited student population, so you're not facing a wave of Green-curious voters.

    Thirdly, it needs to be a seat where Reform is the challenger, but is also a long way back. Labour needs to be able to frame it as Labour v Reform, so that they can squeeze the LibDem vote. Ideally, it's one where Labour is in excess of 50%, and Reform was on 15% last time around, with both the Conservatives and LibDems in the low teens.

    There are probably 3 or 4 seats like this, and I'm not sure Norwich South is one, due to (a) its historic Green vote, and (b) its large student population. I suspect the right seat is in the Manchester suburbs (far from the Universities), because that's also where Burnham would get a personal vote.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,361
    Seems to me a case of the road you didn't choose. A helicopter lift & drop doesn't really get you where you'd need to be, not when the 'road' is life's path.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 86
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,446
    trukat said:

    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.

    Manchester Withington. He'd be a shoo-in
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,512
    Roger said:

    trukat said:

    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.

    Manchester Withington. He'd be a shoo-in
    The LDs would probably win that one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,497
    I've been thinking about northern HS2, and its cancellation.

    Given the very short distances between the north's major cities, might the new hybrid electrical aviation designs present something of an alternative ?

    For example, for around £2bn, you could buy a 500 strong fleet of these things, once they come into service:
    https://www.electra.aero/news/four-ways-electras-ultra-short-aircraft-will-transform-travel-via-direct-aviation

    9 passengers with luggage, a range of 300 miles plus, and speed of 175mph (say 45 mins, Leeds- Birmingham) could add up to a very large number of passengers carried.
    And they require runways of only around 300ft - so for another couple of billion, you could build dozens of STOL airports, close to city centres.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 264
    trukat said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
    Stockport is perfect, also Gorton and Denton
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,000
    Andy_JS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    It's difficult to think of a Labour seat in England that wouldn't be won by either the Greens or Ref in a by-election.
    Cambridge?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,497
    edited November 19
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    The answer is... yes. But the list is a small one.

    I think you need three things.

    Firstly, it needs to be clear that this is so Andy Burnham can overthrow Starmer as leader. That therefore hopefully allows to attract people who are Labour-friendly, but dislike Starmer. (I.e., you want lots of SouthamObservers.) The vote for Labour in this scenario is a vote against Starmer.

    Secondly, it needs to be a seat where there is a limited student population, so you're not facing a wave of Green-curious voters.

    Thirdly, it needs to be a seat where Reform is the challenger, but is also a long way back. Labour needs to be able to frame it as Labour v Reform, so that they can squeeze the LibDem vote. Ideally, it's one where Labour is in excess of 50%, and Reform was on 15% last time around, with both the Conservatives and LibDems in the low teens.

    There are probably 3 or 4 seats like this, and I'm not sure Norwich South is one, due to (a) its historic Green vote, and (b) its large student population. I suspect the right seat is in the Manchester suburbs (far from the Universities), because that's also where Burnham would get a personal vote.
    What about if letters were already submitted to challenge Starmer ?
    Would the desire not to have (eg) Streeting be sufficiently widespread to impose his odds ?

    And, as you say, the personal vote might then acquire greater force.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    Andy_JS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    It's difficult to think of a Labour seat in England that wouldn't be won by either the Greens or Ref in a by-election.
    Sheffield Hallam.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,396
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    trukat said:

    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.

    Manchester Withington. He'd be a shoo-in
    The LDs would probably win that one.
    I disagree. Withington is Burnham-heartland nowadays - exactly the sort of constituency to go for him specifically.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,178
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    The answer is... yes. But the list is a small one.

    I think you need three things.

    Firstly, it needs to be clear that this is so Andy Burnham can overthrow Starmer as leader. That therefore hopefully allows to attract people who are Labour-friendly, but dislike Starmer. (I.e., you want lots of SouthamObservers.) The vote for Labour in this scenario is a vote against Starmer.

    Secondly, it needs to be a seat where there is a limited student population, so you're not facing a wave of Green-curious voters.

    Thirdly, it needs to be a seat where Reform is the challenger, but is also a long way back. Labour needs to be able to frame it as Labour v Reform, so that they can squeeze the LibDem vote. Ideally, it's one where Labour is in excess of 50%, and Reform was on 15% last time around, with both the Conservatives and LibDems in the low teens.

    There are probably 3 or 4 seats like this, and I'm not sure Norwich South is one, due to (a) its historic Green vote, and (b) its large student population. I suspect the right seat is in the Manchester suburbs (far from the Universities), because that's also where Burnham would get a personal vote.
    Burnham may well win in a Manchester (or Liverpool) seat. He will simply not win any Labour leadership election by propelling himself in such a manner though. Obviously Clive Lewis is as stupid as it gets, but Labour MPs are only mildly stupid on average.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,446
    Roger said:

    trukat said:

    When you combine the rise of the greens and the Labour fall in the polls, plus the fact voters have a history of telling politicians who engineer by elections to fuck off, my money would be on a green gain here. And that is Andy's problem. where is the seat the he could stand in that he is not vulnerable to reform and/or the greens.

    Manchester Withington. He'd be a shoo-in
    ......though he'd get in I can't see the incumbent offering his seat unless Jeff Smith wants Starmer out and Burnham in.

    ....and how many 'Disgruntled of Disdburys' can you find in one Parliament?

  • ajbajb Posts: 169
    Manifold puts it at 62% that Larry the Cat will outlast Starmer. Markets a bit thin, admittedly.

    Back in 2023 we were discussing whether Larry would see his 6th PM; some thought his health not up to it, but it seems that was just rumour. However 18 is now quite old for a cat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,042
    Just completed Between The Waves by Tom McTague - a potted political history of the relationship of the UK and Europe from WW2 to Brexit. Recommended. It brings out the big themes with no particular shade of opinion favoured. Doing the audiobook rather than the written word made for a deeply immersive experience. Maybe losing the trad reading habit doesn’t matter so much after all (although I feel bad about it). The later section covering the Referendum was esp intense. It was like living it again, the campaign, the vote, the fateful result. Contrary to what I was beginning to hope as I got swept up listening, the result was the same as in 2016. Leave won and consequently we left the European Union. Absolutely gut-wrenching.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 86
    DoctorG said:

    trukat said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
    Stockport is perfect, also Gorton and Denton
    I see what your saying and Andy seems popular in Manchester. but let us take Gorton. if Reform take 3000 votes off Labour and most of the Tory vote, and the greens 7000 (it is a free shot by election), Lab are third. it works the other way round too, not unthinkable in an engineered by election.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,565
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    The point about the divine wind is that it succeeded twice (1274, 1281 on checking). Failed once (1944-45).

    Admittedly a 1 in 3 failure rate - not satisfactory.

    What was the survival rate for pilots, but well done for spotting my subtle reference to kamikaze.
    Not 0% in 1944-45 - those who got lost and landed or ditched and were rescued, those who were trained and everything but had the big bombs supervene.

    Not 100% in 1274 and 1281 as typhoons were not great for ships, but I'm sure the Japanese found it a small price compared to the losses on the Mongol fleets.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,963
    Why on earth would Norwich want the King of the North, self styled man of the Manchester people?

    One of the more bonkers ideas frankly from Lewis.

    This is a bad indication that Labour despite only being in office a year or so are already getting the sort of derangement that happens after two terms!!

  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 264
    trukat said:

    DoctorG said:

    trukat said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
    Stockport is perfect, also Gorton and Denton
    I see what your saying and Andy seems popular in Manchester. but let us take Gorton. if Reform take 3000 votes off Labour and most of the Tory vote, and the greens 7000 (it is a free shot by election), Lab are third. it works the other way round too, not unthinkable in an engineered by election.
    I wouldn't risk it. Very volatile electorate right now, Burnham made his bed, he can lie in it. Manchester is on the up now anyway, he could have a go at the General election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    rottenborough said:

    Why on earth would Norwich want the King of the North, self styled man of the Manchester people?

    One of the more bonkers ideas frankly from Lewis.

    This is a bad indication that Labour despite only being in office a year or so are already getting the sort of derangement that happens after two terms!!

    I think we're a week away from Labour MPs talking a Prime Minister in the Lords.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,048
    noneoftheabove said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The idea that Clive Lewis could stand down for Andy Burnham is ridiculous because Norwich South is one of the Green's top targets and has been for about 15 years. They'd win it easily in a by-election imo.

    So to summarise - you think there is norfolk'n'chance?
    I was always told that Norfolk enchants. Or at least that's what I thought they were telling me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,709
    rottenborough said:

    Why on earth would Norwich want the King of the North, self styled man of the Manchester people?

    One of the more bonkers ideas frankly from Lewis.

    This is a bad indication that Labour despite only being in office a year or so are already getting the sort of derangement that happens after two terms!!

    It was one of his more reasonable ideas.

    Still absolutely mad mind.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,686
    rottenborough said:

    Why on earth would Norwich want the King of the North, self styled man of the Manchester people?

    One of the more bonkers ideas frankly from Lewis.

    This is a bad indication that Labour despite only being in office a year or so are already getting the sort of derangement that happens after two terms!!

    Hasn't Clive Lewis always been like this?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,963
    trukat said:

    DoctorG said:

    trukat said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
    Stockport is perfect, also Gorton and Denton
    I see what your saying and Andy seems popular in Manchester. but let us take Gorton. if Reform take 3000 votes off Labour and most of the Tory vote, and the greens 7000 (it is a free shot by election), Lab are third. it works the other way round too, not unthinkable in an engineered by election.
    There is no safe Labour by-election and Andy Burnham will not become party leader is my view for what it's worth.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,709
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/

    Do the Conservatives still want to send refugees there?
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 587
    LostPassword said:

    Besides my occasional forays into Python programming I can't think of anything that I use my Ubuntu laptop for that I couldn't do with a tablet (which would probably connect to a printer with less bother). I think a lot of people stick to a laptop/desktop because they are used to that, but if Windows enshittification is bad enough that it forces people to change, I think it's more likely to lead to a change in form factor used, rather than a change to using a Linux OS - not least because tablets are already widely available in a way that laptops/desktops running Linux are not.

    I think the factor a lot of people miss is the growing tend for specialisation. Fewer and fewer people buy a computing device to do a wide range of tasks, there's one major use and a bunch of stuff they use it for just because it's what they have.

    Tablets have been screwed over by this trend because there's not much to they do better than other devices. The reasons to buy one are too limited, which is why the market has shrunk to basically Apple's iPads, Samsung's Galaxy Tabs and a bunch of cheap garbage. Nobody bothers to develop new technology for tablets, they get hand-me-downs from phones.

    PCs and laptops do not have that problem and I don't think the reasons why people buy and use them will change, even if Windows becomes unviable. One reason why I'm quite sanguine about this is the rise of a single Linux variant, SteamOS, which is design to fit that market.

    A version of Linux design to fill the role Windows currently serves, developed by a single entity with very deep pockets, which has compatibility with a wide range of Windows apps and games is something genuinely new. Valve's Steam marketplace is inextricably bound to the PC, and they've clearly developed SteamOS to ensure Steam continues to exist even if Windows drowns in a tidalwave of smelly stuff.

    (for the record, I don't like Linux and never have. I'd rather Microsoft stopped messing up Windows. But I'm rather resigned to them continuing to treat Windows as an ad for their cloud and AI services, and stuffing it full of buggy AI written code.)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,087
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    The point about the divine wind is that it succeeded twice (1274, 1281 on checking). Failed once (1944-45).

    Admittedly a 1 in 3 failure rate - not satisfactory.

    What was the survival rate for pilots, but well done for spotting my subtle reference to kamikaze.
    Not 0% in 1944-45 - those who got lost and landed or ditched and were rescued, those who were trained and everything but had the big bombs supervene.

    Not 100% in 1274 and 1281 as typhoons were not great for ships, but I'm sure the Japanese found it a small price compared to the losses on the Mongol fleets.
    An acquaintance was a bomber pilot in the second half of WWII. After 30+ missions he told his superiors he just couldn't do any more.
    He was demoted for 'lack of moral fibre' and posted to the Middle East.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,565
    edited November 19
    Nigelb said:

    I've been thinking about northern HS2, and its cancellation.

    Given the very short distances between the north's major cities, might the new hybrid electrical aviation designs present something of an alternative ?

    For example, for around £2bn, you could buy a 500 strong fleet of these things, once they come into service:
    https://www.electra.aero/news/four-ways-electras-ultra-short-aircraft-will-transform-travel-via-direct-aviation

    9 passengers with luggage, a range of 300 miles plus, and speed of 175mph (say 45 mins, Leeds- Birmingham) could add up to a very large number of passengers carried.
    And they require runways of only around 300ft - so for another couple of billion, you could build dozens of STOL airports, close to city centres.

    Hmmmmm ....

    That's the sort of thing that they used to say about helicopters and Fairey Rotodynes and Battersea helicopter airport, and what was going to happen, in the pages of old Eagle comics and annuals when I were a bairn.

    And - in terms of mass air transit - that's also what they used to say about Concorde. That it would replace mobile sardine tins. Instead it got replaced by bigger mobile sardine tins for 99% of the customers, leaving it to a luxury superclass. Which soulds a bit more likely to happen to the leccy helicopters and STOLs.

    And you still have the transit from the airport to your destination in the city - only now unlike Battersea you are out somewhere like Penge or Isle of Grain or worse. You, in other words, need to take the train ... which is ****ed by decades of underspending on the north. Or an expensive taxi.

    And hangars and maintenance facilities and staffing ... I can't [edit] quite see it as anything much more than for the Mr Sunaks of this world.

    But it will be interesting. Would make good sense as an Islander or Trislander or Twotter or Skyvan repl;acement in Scotland - the Highlands and Western and Norsthern Islands, Aberdeen to Leeds, and so on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,628
    noneoftheabove said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    So to summarise - you think we should bury this story?
    Hey, wood you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,042
    rottenborough said:

    trukat said:

    DoctorG said:

    trukat said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
    Stockport is perfect, also Gorton and Denton
    I see what your saying and Andy seems popular in Manchester. but let us take Gorton. if Reform take 3000 votes off Labour and most of the Tory vote, and the greens 7000 (it is a free shot by election), Lab are third. it works the other way round too, not unthinkable in an engineered by election.
    There is no safe Labour by-election and Andy Burnham will not become party leader is my view for what it's worth.
    There'd need to be a strong party consensus that (i) Starmer must go and (ii) Burnham should replace him. In that event a way would be found. But you'd need both those beliefs to become embedded not just the first. I agree with you. Don't see it. Safe lay.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,396
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    So to summarise - you think we should bury this story?
    Hey, wood you?
    Being PM isn't a job you can just Bolt on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,049
    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,446
    If there is going to be a challenge to Starmer you would expect the runners and riders to be showing themselves by now. Clive Lewis's support is not a plus for Burnham. Quite the opposite. He's well known to be a disruptive egocentric shit. Lucy Powell though might be helpful.

    Streeting seems more likely though having read a bit more of his CV there are definitely problems. Starmer with a personality. Surely there must be someone else who we are overlooking?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,396
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/

    Do the Conservatives still want to send refugees there?
    It still seems less harebrained than SKS's '17 in, one out, then one back in again' deal.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,061
    edited November 19
    We have the first leaks of details of the new surrender plan from Witkoff/Trump for Ukraine. Give up territory in Donbas, shrink armed forces, restrictions on weapons capabilities for Ukraine, reduction in weapon systems supplied by US - it all sounds very similar to the previous surrender plan that was previously proposed.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,178
    Roger said:

    If there is going to be a challenge to Starmer you would expect the runners and riders to be showing themselves by now. Clive Lewis's support is not a plus for Burnham. Quite the opposite. He's well known to be a disruptive egocentric shit. Lucy Powell though might be helpful.

    Streeting seems more likely though having read a bit more of his CV there are definitely problems. Starmer with a personality. Surely there must be someone else who we are overlooking?

    Lucy Powell isn't thinking 'Ah, now, I am deputy leader of the Labour party I can use that to propel Burnham into the leadership.'
  • ajbajb Posts: 169
    edited November 19
    Nigelb said:

    I've been thinking about northern HS2, and its cancellation.

    Given the very short distances between the north's major cities, might the new hybrid electrical aviation designs present something of an alternative ?

    For example, for around £2bn, you could buy a 500 strong fleet of these things, once they come into service:
    https://www.electra.aero/news/four-ways-electras-ultra-short-aircraft-will-transform-travel-via-direct-aviation

    9 passengers with luggage, a range of 300 miles plus, and speed of 175mph (say 45 mins, Leeds- Birmingham) could add up to a very large number of passengers carried.
    And they require runways of only around 300ft - so for another couple of billion, you could build dozens of STOL airports, close to city centres.

    Nah. Cheapest rail ticket from Leeds to Birmingham is £12. A pilot can fly 1000 hours a year, starting salary is £47000, so even if you have an all-rookie pilot stable, that's £4 just on the pilots salary alone, and the other per-flight costs will be proportional to that . Minimum possible ticket cost is maybe £40-50? And mostly higher.

    There's also the question of how many small planes a runway can process per hour, even if you have a lot of runways. The target for HS2 was to add 6000 seats in the rush hour. More runways = more ATC staff.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,628
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/

    Do the Conservatives still want to send refugees there?
    Congo has way more area...
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,361
    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    Ha ha ha. Yes, absolutely I see it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,628
    Just for @TSE, the MXY-7 Ohka (Allies' nickname "Baka"):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yokosuka_MXY-7_Ohka
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,593
    LostPassword said:

    We have the first leaks of details of the new surrender plan from Witkoff/Trump for Ukraine. Give up territory in Donbas, shrink armed forces, restrictions on weapons capabilities for Ukraine, reduction in weapon systems supplied by US - it all sounds very similar to the previous surrender plan that was previously proposed.

    It all sounds like it requires the "Fuck off" response.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,061
    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    A guarantee from Trump is worth less than nothing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,565
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/19/christies-withdraws-rare-first-calculator-from-auction-after-court-halts-export

    French nerds understandably not happy an early calculator (unique example of specific variant) was given an export go.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,742
    ajb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I've been thinking about northern HS2, and its cancellation.

    Given the very short distances between the north's major cities, might the new hybrid electrical aviation designs present something of an alternative ?

    For example, for around £2bn, you could buy a 500 strong fleet of these things, once they come into service:
    https://www.electra.aero/news/four-ways-electras-ultra-short-aircraft-will-transform-travel-via-direct-aviation

    9 passengers with luggage, a range of 300 miles plus, and speed of 175mph (say 45 mins, Leeds- Birmingham) could add up to a very large number of passengers carried.
    And they require runways of only around 300ft - so for another couple of billion, you could build dozens of STOL airports, close to city centres.

    Nah. Cheapest rail ticket from Leeds to Birmingham is £12. A pilot can fly 1000 hours a year, starting salary is £47000, so even if you have an all-rookie pilot stable, that's £4 just on the pilots salary alone, and the other per-flight costs will be proportional to that . Minimum possible ticket cost is maybe £40-50? And mostly higher.

    There's also the question of how many small planes a runway can process per hour, even if you have a lot of runways. The target for HS2 was to add 6000 seats in the rush hour. More runways = more ATC staff.
    Incidentally the choice of Leeds-Birmingham in this example is a good one: it was to have been HS2's greatest speed improvement: 1h56m down to 57m. Maybe one day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,858
    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    Get in the fucking sea.

    https://www.ft.com/content/23536bf6-c550-4896-931f-a33a1c2ad91a?accessToken=zwAAAZqdRNlgkc8jU2v2xVBIltOTH6M6HCrZGg.MEQCIB0Uu1qXccFJvkLLxAC5TGLnuJPcfnAcaAbuQUU7JGcgAiBiyCsflAO8kG91mIUixFAj6WqimuseI7mb153DPNh6IA&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=79033bd7-50fa-495c-8d02-23b285c14815
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,828
    Stuartinromford said:

    rottenborough said:

    Why on earth would Norwich want the King of the North, self styled man of the Manchester people?

    One of the more bonkers ideas frankly from Lewis.

    This is a bad indication that Labour despite only being in office a year or so are already getting the sort of derangement that happens after two terms!!

    Hasn't Clive Lewis always been like this?
    Clive Lewis may be a splendid bloke in many ways, but his public life has two characteristics: he is to some extent good at attracting attention by gestures and opinions, and he never ever ever wholeheartedly supports things done by any UK government of whatever party, and especially his own.

    So many on the left are in essence opposition politicians. They have the advantage of never being wrong and never making unpopular decisions.

    We shall, sadly, never know how a Corbyn/Burgon/Lewis/Pidcock government got on. But that's our fault of course not theirs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,042
    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    US security guarantee ... the Andrex Puppy springs to mind.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,970
    Nigelb said:

    I've been thinking about northern HS2, and its cancellation.

    Given the very short distances between the north's major cities, might the new hybrid electrical aviation designs present something of an alternative ?

    For example, for around £2bn, you could buy a 500 strong fleet of these things, once they come into service:
    https://www.electra.aero/news/four-ways-electras-ultra-short-aircraft-will-transform-travel-via-direct-aviation

    9 passengers with luggage, a range of 300 miles plus, and speed of 175mph (say 45 mins, Leeds- Birmingham) could add up to a very large number of passengers carried.
    And they require runways of only around 300ft - so for another couple of billion, you could build dozens of STOL airports, close to city centres.

    Man with a red flag in front? Like all new technology you'll get early adopters so it will depend on whether it would expand beyond that group.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,647
    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    Imperial aggression works.

    Went out of vogue for a few decades, but it is back and here to stay.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,402
    carnforth said:

    ajb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I've been thinking about northern HS2, and its cancellation.

    Given the very short distances between the north's major cities, might the new hybrid electrical aviation designs present something of an alternative ?

    For example, for around £2bn, you could buy a 500 strong fleet of these things, once they come into service:
    https://www.electra.aero/news/four-ways-electras-ultra-short-aircraft-will-transform-travel-via-direct-aviation

    9 passengers with luggage, a range of 300 miles plus, and speed of 175mph (say 45 mins, Leeds- Birmingham) could add up to a very large number of passengers carried.
    And they require runways of only around 300ft - so for another couple of billion, you could build dozens of STOL airports, close to city centres.

    Nah. Cheapest rail ticket from Leeds to Birmingham is £12. A pilot can fly 1000 hours a year, starting salary is £47000, so even if you have an all-rookie pilot stable, that's £4 just on the pilots salary alone, and the other per-flight costs will be proportional to that . Minimum possible ticket cost is maybe £40-50? And mostly higher.

    There's also the question of how many small planes a runway can process per hour, even if you have a lot of runways. The target for HS2 was to add 6000 seats in the rush hour. More runways = more ATC staff.
    Incidentally the choice of Leeds-Birmingham in this example is a good one: it was to have been HS2's greatest speed improvement: 1h56m down to 57m. Maybe one day.
    Unlikely in our lifetime.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,686
    Roger said:

    If there is going to be a challenge to Starmer you would expect the runners and riders to be showing themselves by now. Clive Lewis's support is not a plus for Burnham. Quite the opposite. He's well known to be a disruptive egocentric shit. Lucy Powell though might be helpful.

    Streeting seems more likely though having read a bit more of his CV there are definitely problems. Starmer with a personality. Surely there must be someone else who we are overlooking?

    Où est la masse de manœuvre?

    Aucune.

    The only reason Starmer got the Labour leadership, and then the Premiership, was the lack of someone else. That still basically applies.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,512
    rottenborough said:

    trukat said:

    DoctorG said:

    trukat said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    I reckon he'd hold Liverpool West Derby right now.
    I was looking at this before the conferences. There's half a dozen in GM he'd win. Manchester Central would be favourite. Unfortunately there's now a Labour deputy leader there.
    I reckon he's also safely home in Stretford and Urmston, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Stockport, Manchester Withington, Bolton South East, Salford.
    Stockport has a good Reform and Green presence. could be hammer and anvil for Labour there.
    Stockport is perfect, also Gorton and Denton
    I see what your saying and Andy seems popular in Manchester. but let us take Gorton. if Reform take 3000 votes off Labour and most of the Tory vote, and the greens 7000 (it is a free shot by election), Lab are third. it works the other way round too, not unthinkable in an engineered by election.
    There is no safe Labour by-election and Andy Burnham will not become party leader is my view for what it's worth.
    There are a few like Peckham and Croydon West but the MPs in those seats are definitely not going to stand down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,963
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    US security guarantee ... the Andrex Puppy springs to mind.
    Wasn't this the plan they pitched six weeks ago?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,828
    bondegezou said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    It's difficult to think of a Labour seat in England that wouldn't be won by either the Greens or Ref in a by-election.
    Cambridge?
    It would be a three way fight between Lab, Greens and LDs. (I wonder how many people in Cambridge now could identify the historian Robert Rhodes James, who in a 1976 by election got 51% of the vote, and who wrote numerous books including the biography of the man who was 'a bounder but not a cad'.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,946
    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    Leigh. With Burnham as candidate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,405
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/

    Do the Conservatives still want to send refugees there?
    To North London?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,835
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/

    Do the Conservatives still want to send refugees there?
    Asylum seekers wearing Arsenal shirts to troll Kemi?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,709
    Cookie said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Arsenal and Visit Rwanda will end their eight-year partnership after pressure over the “blood-stained” deal.

    In February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which borders Rwanda, had appealed to Arsenal, Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich to cut ties amid a humanitarian crisis in the country.

    Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, the Congo’s foreign minister, previously wrote to Stan Kroenke and son Josh, the Arsenal owners, directly accusing the Rwandan government of supporting rebel groups who have engaged in “rape, murder and theft” in the eastern Congo. Wagner added that Arsenal’s “sponsor is directly responsible for this misery” and that the agreement was a “blood-stained deal”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/11/19/arsenals-visit-rwanda-sponsorship-deal-end-stain/

    Do the Conservatives still want to send refugees there?
    It still seems less harebrained than SKS's '17 in, one out, then one back in again' deal.
    Hilarious.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,963
    Trump says he's going to fire Scott Bessant unless he sorts out the Fed, as part of a tirade about Powell which manages to include Trump's new ballroom:


    Trump on Jerome Powell: "I'd love to fire his ass...
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1991202124135330094
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,402
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    Leigh. With Burnham as candidate.
    Reform gain
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,402
    algarkirk said:

    bondegezou said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    It's difficult to think of a Labour seat in England that wouldn't be won by either the Greens or Ref in a by-election.
    Cambridge?
    It would be a three way fight between Lab, Greens and LDs. (I wonder how many people in Cambridge now could identify the historian Robert Rhodes James, who in a 1976 by election got 51% of the vote, and who wrote numerous books including the biography of the man who was 'a bounder but not a cad'.)
    And, given the time of year it bears mentioning, a descendant of the master of the Ghost Story, M R James.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 86
    edited November 19
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is there any Labour seat they could seriously hope to retain, in the scenario that a sitting MP resigns to allow someone else a run?

    Personally I quite like Burnham, from the days when he reacted positively to being the sports minister booed at the Hillsborough memorial service, but there’s no chance he wins a set-up by-election in the next couple of years.

    Leigh. With Burnham as candidate.
    Looks like a reform gain on the face of it. You think he has a big personal vote there? it is possible i suppose. but there are 6500 Tory votes for reform to eat and a massive polling swing since 2024. if he did win it, it really would be his win.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,641
    Green gain
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,709
    Scott_xP said:

    @BarakRavid

    🚨SCOOP: The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression.

    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1991198264431947855?s=20

    The Art of the Deal.

    You're fired!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,588
    edited November 19
    I agree, if Burnham goes for a seat it would be in the Greater Manchester area, probably in the suburbs where the Greens and Reform would be less of a threat. You also have the Starmer loyalist controlled NEC also likely blocking Burnham from the longlist of potential Labour parliamentary candidate hopefuls for any seat which comes up in a by election before the next general election anyway
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,970
    rottenborough said:

    Trump says he's going to fire Scott Bessant unless he sorts out the Fed, as part of a tirade about Powell which manages to include Trump's new ballroom:


    Trump on Jerome Powell: "I'd love to fire his ass...
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1991202124135330094

    He may be concerned about the steep recent drop in the DJI. Perhaps it's more than a correction. 3 month view


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,512
    "He used to say things like “Hitler was right”’: Farage faces more allegations of racist behaviour at school"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/19/nigel-farage-allegations-racist-behaviour-school
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,588
    Andy_JS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Burnham needs a Greater Manchester seat to be credible. Its that simple.

    It's difficult to think of a Labour seat in England that wouldn't be won by either the Greens or Ref in a by-election.
    Birmingham Hodge Hill and Bradford West could go Your Party.

    Seats like Kensington and Bayswater, Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green and Chipping Barnet could even go Tory
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