politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting
Comments
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It might just have been a big punter not too bothered about price. But if there's a 2- or 3-point lead for the Tories in a poll tonight, I shan't struggle to put 2 and 2 together.Pulpstar said:
Last price matched 9-2 !!!Tissue_Price said:
What on earth has caused that move on betfair? It sure as hell isn't a heckler.JKenny said:It might be time to get on a Tory majority.
Just saying.0 -
Re the oil price.
The cost of US tight oil production is in secular decline, for exactly the same reason that the cost of US tight gas production was in secular decline. Essentially, technology and experience is improving our ability to get oil out of the small pores of non-traditional reservoirs (virtually none of which are shales).
Over the last five years, the cost of 1MCF of initial production of gas has fallen by over 70%. In 2009, when the US gas price cratered, we were assured that gas would soon be $8 again - because shale gas simply wasn't economic below that price.
What happened? We got pad drilling, longer horizontal laterals, faster drilling times, more fracs, better frac fluids, etc. etc. etc. The result of which is that the US gas industry is profitable (albeit barely) with gas at $3 and change.
We are going to go through the same technological progress with tight oil we went through with tight gas. Yes: a bunch of producers will go bust (as they did when the gas price fell). But the amount of US oil produced will continue to rise, even if slightly less quickly than previously.
The Saudis realised last year that if they cut production 1m barrels to keep the price at $80-90, then all they would be doing was ceding share to the US.
I doubt the oil price will exceed $70 over the next two years.0 -
Is this the start of the price insensitive masses moving into the markets before GE ?Tissue_Price said:
It might just have been a big punter not too bothered about price. But if there's a 2- or 3-point lead for the Tories in a poll tonight, I shan't struggle to put 2 and 2 together.Pulpstar said:
Last price matched 9-2 !!!Tissue_Price said:
What on earth has caused that move on betfair? It sure as hell isn't a heckler.JKenny said:It might be time to get on a Tory majority.
Just saying.0 -
Betting on a Con majority will probably get a lot more popular from now on. The reason is that the Tories can keep banging on about the way that the alternative is a Lab/SNP coalition with Sturgeon calling the shots at England's expense.0
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In terms of lead, if Labour are shipping votes and seats to the SNP that doesn't affect Conservative Majority a jot.0
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Police trying to move people on if there is more than two of them in a group and they are believed to be acting in an anti-social manner.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/anti-social-behaviour-order-force-liverpool-85900580 -
Do not forget the pinnacle of card games,cribbage.My CV includes taking the captaincy of the social club cribbage team, a great honour.Peter_the_Punter said:@Charles
I used to play Nap, regularly.
It's a delightful little game, a derivative of whist. Solo is another, which has also declined to near extinction.
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Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
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Kipper Putin love in ? He hates the EU so he must be a good guy ? Epic.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
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Using local election results as a predictor, Slugger O Tool put UKIP on >30 seats.tlg86 said:
I suspect there may be some truth in this and some Kippers may be disappointed with the number of seats they win, especially if they get a decent share of the vote.David_Evershed said:I have a theory that many people are considering voting for the 'minor' parties, UKIP and Green, because they have seen that the Lib Dems have been in a coalition government and think that UKIP and the Greens could be also.
In practice the major (in Scotland) SNP party might get enough seats to join a coalition but UKIP and Greens will have only insignificant numbers of MPs or MP. Once people realise this after the election, their support for UKIP and Greens will fade away.
Lib Dems will need to maintain a decent number of MPs, 30 plus say, to avoid the same fate.
But the flip side is that Ukip might come a decent second in a number of constituencies. And that might help them to convince people to vote for them next time. Ultimately, however, the fate of Ukip will be determined by what the Government does over the next five years.
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/01/24/forecasting-the-2015-uk-general-election/
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Of course it will affect the Conservative Majority prospects.Pulpstar said:In terms of lead, if Labour are shipping votes and seats to the SNP that doesn't affect Conservative Majority a jot.
Labour now have to put huge resources into trying to defend 40 or so seats that a Donkey with a red rosette would have won in 2010.
Since they have finite resources they will have disproportionately fewer resources to try and defeat Tories in marginals south of the border, to immense Tory benefit.0 -
It makes some sense in abstract, but the thing many people object to, is that plenty of people out there claim to be consuming both, but then take everything the Russians say at face value and accept all of their justifications as valid and reasonable while condemning everything the Western media is saying and scoffing at the idea there is any justification or reasonableness to the actions of the West.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
And that is partly achieved by pretending that people who do think the Russians are worse in this quagmire are ignoring the less than shiny actions and reputations of the players on the Western side, which is not always the case at all. Just because someone has concluded the Russians are more at fault , for the sake of argument, does not mean they are an idiot stooge who is taking everything the western media is saying at face value.0 -
you need to read others as well such as Al Jazeera, other european press and those in USA and Africa to get a good balance.kle4 said:
It makes some sense in abstract, but the thing many people object to, is that plenty of people out there claim to be consuming both, but then take everything the Russians say at face value and accept all of their justifications as valid and reasonable while condemning everything the Western media is saying and scoffing at the idea there is any justification or reasonableness to the actions of the West.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
And that is partly achieved by pretending that people who do think the Russians are worse in this quagmire are ignoring the less than shiny actions and reputations of the players on the Western side, which is not always the case at all. Just because someone has concluded the Russians are more at fault , for the sake of argument, does not mean they are an idiot stooge who is taking everything the western media is saying at face value.
Going On Topic, anyone who risks getting into a war with Russia is a total pr*tt.
Russians have an almost limitless capacity to tolerate hardship and an almost limitless ability to ship industry east out of the way of any warzone. We (and that includes the USA) have neither.0 -
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My game of choice is Piquet - I guess if you mentioned it to a youngest these days you'd, at best, get a "yer what?"Peter_the_Punter said:@Charles
I used to play Nap, regularly.
It's a delightful little game, a derivative of whist. Solo is another, which has also declined to near extinction.0 -
Whatever the Russian "capacity" we should not appease them.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
you need to read others as well such as Al Jazeera, other european press and those in USA and Africa to get a good balance.kle4 said:
It makes some sense in abstract, but the thing many people object to, is that plenty of people out there claim to be consuming both, but then take everything the Russians say at face value and accept all of their justifications as valid and reasonable while condemning everything the Western media is saying and scoffing at the idea there is any justification or reasonableness to the actions of the West.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
And that is partly achieved by pretending that people who do think the Russians are worse in this quagmire are ignoring the less than shiny actions and reputations of the players on the Western side, which is not always the case at all. Just because someone has concluded the Russians are more at fault , for the sake of argument, does not mean they are an idiot stooge who is taking everything the western media is saying at face value.
Going On Topic, anyone who risks getting into a war with Russia is a total pr*tt.
Russians have an almost limitless capacity to tolerate hardship and an almost limitless ability to ship industry east out of the way of any warzone. We (and that includes the USA) have neither.
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Three of those were on my "UKIP best chance" list from April 2013 when they were 16s in Walsall North and Plymouth Moor View, and 20s in Dudley North.Tissue_Price said:The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/1
Only backed Dudley though, and that was for smalls0 -
Friend of mine in the shale industry puts it at 18 months - reckons that 12 months is the time to start buying long dated calls...rcs1000 said:Re the oil price.
The cost of US tight oil production is in secular decline, for exactly the same reason that the cost of US tight gas production was in secular decline. Essentially, technology and experience is improving our ability to get oil out of the small pores of non-traditional reservoirs (virtually none of which are shales).
Over the last five years, the cost of 1MCF of initial production of gas has fallen by over 70%. In 2009, when the US gas price cratered, we were assured that gas would soon be $8 again - because shale gas simply wasn't economic below that price.
What happened? We got pad drilling, longer horizontal laterals, faster drilling times, more fracs, better frac fluids, etc. etc. etc. The result of which is that the US gas industry is profitable (albeit barely) with gas at $3 and change.
We are going to go through the same technological progress with tight oil we went through with tight gas. Yes: a bunch of producers will go bust (as they did when the gas price fell). But the amount of US oil produced will continue to rise, even if slightly less quickly than previously.
The Saudis realised last year that if they cut production 1m barrels to keep the price at $80-90, then all they would be doing was ceding share to the US.
I doubt the oil price will exceed $70 over the next two years.0 -
Yes, if they end up 3-ways then obviously they're great UKIP chances too. I went through the list of short UKIP prices identifying what were Lab-Con marginals last time without too much LD presence.isam said:
Three of those were on my "UKIP best chance" list from April 2013 when they were 16s in Walsall North and Plymouth Moor View, and 20s in Dudley North.Tissue_Price said:The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/1
Only backed Dudley though, and that was for smalls0 -
Been hearing a few discussions about whether the smaller parties getting squeezed... It's too early to be sure, but one pattern has been for UKIP's vote share to drop among phone pollsters. Compared with December, UKIP has gained a point with ComRes, but dropped 2 points with Ipsos-MORI, 3 points with ICM and 4 points on average with Lord Ashcroft. There was only one Ashcroft National Poll in December, and its 19% may have been something of a blip, but January's average was still a point lower than November...
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/5634349577425469450 -
We appease Saudi Arabia. And the groups they fund and train, directly or indirectly, constitute a REAL and ongoing danger.perdix said:
Whatever the Russian "capacity" we should not appease them.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
you need to read others as well such as Al Jazeera, other european press and those in USA and Africa to get a good balance.kle4 said:
It makes some sense in abstract, but the thing many people object to, is that plenty of people out there claim to be consuming both, but then take everything the Russians say at face value and accept all of their justifications as valid and reasonable while condemning everything the Western media is saying and scoffing at the idea there is any justification or reasonableness to the actions of the West.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
And that is partly achieved by pretending that people who do think the Russians are worse in this quagmire are ignoring the less than shiny actions and reputations of the players on the Western side, which is not always the case at all. Just because someone has concluded the Russians are more at fault , for the sake of argument, does not mean they are an idiot stooge who is taking everything the western media is saying at face value.
Going On Topic, anyone who risks getting into a war with Russia is a total pr*tt.
Russians have an almost limitless capacity to tolerate hardship and an almost limitless ability to ship industry east out of the way of any warzone. We (and that includes the USA) have neither.
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Not sure about that. I was nervous about the Dec-Mar period, since I thought the Tories were going to have a huge funding edge. But it doesn't seem to be working out that way - there are an awful lot of medium-sized individual donations coming in and although I don't like to admit it, we probably now have more money than we can sensibly use (there are limits to how many direct mails you can reasonably send to people before they start chucking them in the bin). So we've been putting money aside for a posisble snap second election. If the party doesn't want to give us any more and throw it at Scotland, that's fine for now.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Of course it will affect the Conservative Majority prospects.Pulpstar said:In terms of lead, if Labour are shipping votes and seats to the SNP that doesn't affect Conservative Majority a jot.
Labour now have to put huge resources into trying to defend 40 or so seats that a Donkey with a red rosette would have won in 2010.
Since they have finite resources they will have disproportionately fewer resources to try and defeat Tories in marginals south of the border, to immense Tory benefit.
I do think there will be a bigger Tory lead this evening as it's been a torrid week; I also think it will subside. Betting with caution is usually a good idea!
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Sorry O/T but....
Ed visits his Labour activists in Plymouth but things did not go well
Heckler: “We shouldn’t be in Europe because we’re not getting a fair crack of the whip because we’ve got MPs like you who won’t fight our corner.”
Miliband: “Well, look…”
Heckler: “Get out! Put your brother in!”
Audience: [Laughs] “Oooooohhhhh!”
Miliband: “I’m clearly not gonna win you round.”
Hat tip Guido.
Ed's a dud even his own activists know it.
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El Hawamdia south of Cairo has a similar deal. It is a centre for Islamic Child Prostitution under the guise of temporary marriage:Alistair said:
That because Mormon teenagers head down the freeway to get married in Vegas, shag, then get divorced in the same 24 hours.Freggles said:
Mormonism forbids all those too, we haven't got the same issues.TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I did/do all of the above and I'm happy.
They should make me the Grand Mufti of Islam.
I'd have proper reformation within a decade.
Then again we did give the world Twilight
Middle East needs a Vegas.
http://www.africanseer.com/news/301250-wealthy-male-tourists-from-gulf-arab-states-flock-to-egypt-to-exploit-underage-girls.html
Mind you Egypt is becoming more progressive. Just this week they had their first successful FGM conviction:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/26/doctor-jailed-egypt-first-fgm-conviction0 -
Some will view the election in England v Scotland terms, while there may be a snowball point with Labour's vote.Pulpstar said:In terms of lead, if Labour are shipping votes and seats to the SNP that doesn't affect Conservative Majority a jot.
A moment when the realisation hits people that Miliband and Labour aren't getting in, so they fracture, heading Green, Yellow, Purple, wherever their truer feelings lay.0 -
Never played it, but have certainly heard about it.Charles said:
My game of choice is Piquet - I guess if you mentioned it to a youngest these days you'd, at best, get a "yer what?"Peter_the_Punter said:@Charles
I used to play Nap, regularly.
It's a delightful little game, a derivative of whist. Solo is another, which has also declined to near extinction.
Ever played Kalooki? It's rummy on speed.0 -
It would be a bit odd if UKIP didn't get squeezed a bit before the election. For a start a good chunk of their supporters in some marginals where UKIP have no chance will think that Ed winning is too high a price to pay and vote Tory holding their nose.numbercruncher said:Been hearing a few discussions about whether the smaller parties getting squeezed... It's too early to be sure, but one pattern has been for UKIP's vote share to drop among phone pollsters. Compared with December, UKIP has gained a point with ComRes, but dropped 2 points with Ipsos-MORI, 3 points with ICM and 4 points on average with Lord Ashcroft. There was only one Ashcroft National Poll in December, and its 19% may have been something of a blip, but January's average was still a point lower than November...
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/563434957742546945
Whats important is whether when squeezed, their vote becomes more lumpy, coalescing in places like Boston and Rochester where they have a realistic chance of winning.0 -
I'll drink to that.volcanopete said:
Do not forget the pinnacle of card games,cribbage.My CV includes taking the captaincy of the social club cribbage team, a great honour.Peter_the_Punter said:@Charles
I used to play Nap, regularly.
It's a delightful little game, a derivative of whist. Solo is another, which has also declined to near extinction.0 -
I increasingly find I'm subconsciously leveraging Sean Fear's gambit: the more I think about how Labour/SNP might stitch-up a positively destructive government, the more horrified I am and the more drawn to the Conservatives as the "English" party.
It's not healthy; I'm a passionate Unionist. But this happens without me even thinking about it: it's a gut reaction. And I don't even like Cameron's vacuous brand of weathercock Conservatism.
(P.S. for opposite, but identical, reasons that's why Labour grandees will never allow Miliband to go into coalition with the SNP)0 -
UKIP's vote is holding up well considering they have had minimal coverage this year. I was thinking there was a real danger they could drop off in the long period between their Rochester and Strood win in November and the campaign starting proper in April, but no real sign of it yet. The media will jump on it if they do start to fade though.0
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I am not totally convinced that UKIP know where their best chances are yet. I think there will be a few places where they surprise themselves, though whether that will be as first or second place is unclear.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
It would be a bit odd if UKIP didn't get squeezed a bit before the election. For a start a good chunk of their supporters in some marginals where UKIP have no chance will think that Ed winning is too high a price to pay and vote Tory holding their nose.numbercruncher said:Been hearing a few discussions about whether the smaller parties getting squeezed... It's too early to be sure, but one pattern has been for UKIP's vote share to drop among phone pollsters. Compared with December, UKIP has gained a point with ComRes, but dropped 2 points with Ipsos-MORI, 3 points with ICM and 4 points on average with Lord Ashcroft. There was only one Ashcroft National Poll in December, and its 19% may have been something of a blip, but January's average was still a point lower than November...
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/563434957742546945
Whats important is whether when squeezed, their vote becomes more lumpy, coalescing in places like Boston and Rochester where they have a realistic chance of winning.
With a second election within a year a definite possibility coming second may be worth fighting for. It would be a good base to build from.
BTW Happy Bithday Nick!0 -
But the polls have been the same for 'simply ages', Nick, so you have nothing to worry about.NickPalmer said:
Not sure about that. I was nervous about the Dec-Mar period, since I thought the Tories were going to have a huge funding edge. But it doesn't seem to be working out that way - there are an awful lot of medium-sized individual donations coming in and although I don't like to admit it, we probably now have more money than we can sensibly use (there are limits to how many direct mails you can reasonably send to people before they start chucking them in the bin). So we've been putting money aside for a posisble snap second election. If the party doesn't want to give us any more and throw it at Scotland, that's fine for now.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Of course it will affect the Conservative Majority prospects.Pulpstar said:In terms of lead, if Labour are shipping votes and seats to the SNP that doesn't affect Conservative Majority a jot.
Labour now have to put huge resources into trying to defend 40 or so seats that a Donkey with a red rosette would have won in 2010.
Since they have finite resources they will have disproportionately fewer resources to try and defeat Tories in marginals south of the border, to immense Tory benefit.
I do think there will be a bigger Tory lead this evening as it's been a torrid week; I also think it will subside. Betting with caution is usually a good idea!0 -
13 weeks to go...Ave It latest projection:
CON 37% 313
LAB 29% 266
LD 13% 30
SNP 16
PC 5
NI 18
UKIP 11% 1
GRN 5% 1
CON short by 12. CON + LD = maj 27
SNP do well in Scotland...against LD. They will come up short again and again v LAB. It's not going to happen for them!0 -
That's true. But if English/Welsh voters see the Scots have decided he's a massive loser, that's hardly going to be a boon for his vote south of the border either.Pulpstar said:In terms of lead, if Labour are shipping votes and seats to the SNP that doesn't affect Conservative Majority a jot.
I increasingly find it hard to see how English voters will 'compensate' Miliband for the seats he'll lose in Scotland, where he faces a near wipeout. If he's useless and a waste of space, English voters will come to the same conclusion too.
Except in the weird hypomarginals that the Tories squeaked an unexpected win in last time. Some of which Labour will almost certainly pick up, come what may.
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Its strange how the people that are convinced UKIP will win 4 seats max only think they can win the seats they are favourite in, when there are so many three way marginals (that were 2 way marginals) that they can win on lowish vote share.. obviously they are unlikely to win them but there will be 1 or 2 leftfield Kipper victories I thinkTissue_Price said:
Yes, if they end up 3-ways then obviously they're great UKIP chances too. I went through the list of short UKIP prices identifying what were Lab-Con marginals last time without too much LD presence.isam said:
Three of those were on my "UKIP best chance" list from April 2013 when they were 16s in Walsall North and Plymouth Moor View, and 20s in Dudley North.Tissue_Price said:The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/1
Only backed Dudley though, and that was for smalls
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'Ave it!Ave_it said:13 weeks to go...Ave It latest projection:
CON 37% 313
LAB 29% 266
LD 13% 30
SNP 16
PC 5
NI 18
UKIP 11% 1
GRN 5% 1
CON short by 12. CON + LD = maj 27
SNP do well in Scotland...against LD. They will come up short again and again v LAB. It's not going to happen for them!
Seriously, I can see the Tories squeaking 35% - and Labour getting 29% - but they ain't going to improve on the GE2010 seat share. I think topping out at 298-303 seats is the best Cameron can hope for.
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Going well then...
@afneil: German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble: "We agreed to disagree".
Greek Fin Min Yanis Varoufakis: ‘We didn’t even agree to disagree’’.The spectre of a Nazi revival was raised by Greece’s finance minister in a vain attempt to convince Germany to give him more time to re-order the country’s finances during “intense” but inconclusive talks in Berlin.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article4345317.ece
Yanis Varoufakis, the “libertarian Marxist” former academic, said that Germans understood better than anyone how a long depression and national humiliation could stoke far-right extremism as he pleaded for a financial lifeline until May. As it stands, the money could run out in a matter of weeks.0 -
On the contrary, I understand the flaws and limitations of all the news I read. I read NSNBC.me for good investigative citizen journalism, but I'm well aware of their rabid anti-capitalist and pro-socialist stance which I utterly reject. I read RT in the full knowledge they cheerlead shamelessly for their own side, and love to highlight all the social and political failings of 'the West'. I read the Spectator because they are one of the more independent minded UK publications, and everything else I dip into, online versions of all the major UK broadsheets plus the DM and sometimes the Express.kle4 said:
It makes some sense in abstract, but the thing many people object to, is that plenty of people out there claim to be consuming both, but then take everything the Russians say at face value and accept all of their justifications as valid and reasonable while condemning everything the Western media is saying and scoffing at the idea there is any justification or reasonableness to the actions of the West.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
And that is partly achieved by pretending that people who do think the Russians are worse in this quagmire are ignoring the less than shiny actions and reputations of the players on the Western side, which is not always the case at all. Just because someone has concluded the Russians are more at fault , for the sake of argument, does not mean they are an idiot stooge who is taking everything the western media is saying at face value.
So I read what I read and I make up my own mind. In doing that I come to a view, and my view is that you cannot look at what the US (with us close behind) has been doing internationally without abject horror. It is an effort to encircle and eventually break up those countries that refuse to submit to US hegemony, through any means, but largely indirect warfare. It is all laid out in publicly available policy documents, right down to the propaganda of inciting uprisings and then being 'shocked' at the severity of reprisals. Do you really think the US are trying to unseat Assad because of his horrific regime? Or does he have a horrific regime (in our eyes) because the US is trying to unseat him?
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Ave it forecasts recount at Broxtowe!0
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Labour is crashing everywhere ! Tories have led the polls 8 times this year Out of 49 !0
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Having an early night but before I do happy birthday Nick.0
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Just phone polled by Populus.I live in a Con-Lab marginal with current betting Con 8-13 Lab 11-8.The weighted questions on previous vote in 2010 were there as was the question on whether you had heard from any of the parties.Also,I got the chance to quote Paisley when she asked would you ever vote Ukip-NEVER!-,would you ever vote Lib Dem-NEVER!- and would you ever vote Tory-NEVER!
I quizzed the young lady as to whom was this poll commissioned without success,although the questions asked indicate more anecdotal evidence toward a view it was Lord Ashcroft.
Expect some more marginal polling out soon,including Con-Lab marginals like mine,target 61 for Labour.0 -
That is my kipper voting strategy too. Apart from Carswell, who looks pretty safe, their next biggest fights will have quite organised competition.isam said:
Its strange how the people that are convinced UKIP will win 4 seats max only think they can win the seats they are favourite in, when there are so many three way marginals (that were 2 way marginals) that they can win on lowish vote share.. obviously they are unlikely to win them but there will be 1 or 2 leftfield Kipper victories I thinkTissue_Price said:
Yes, if they end up 3-ways then obviously they're great UKIP chances too. I went through the list of short UKIP prices identifying what were Lab-Con marginals last time without too much LD presence.isam said:
Three of those were on my "UKIP best chance" list from April 2013 when they were 16s in Walsall North and Plymouth Moor View, and 20s in Dudley North.Tissue_Price said:The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/1
Only backed Dudley though, and that was for smalls
As such I have backed the kippers at good odds on a few longshots. I have Leicester West and Burton as two of these. I did also back the kippers in NW Leics back in November, this is a WWC seat, affected by HS2 but not benefitting from it, with a history of BNP activism. I also thought that Andrew Bridgen may defect and stand as a kipper with a very high chance of keeping the seat. Bridgen now seems very anti-kipper so this aspect of my stake seems to have been wrong.0 -
Probably some kind of institutional racism by the police to keep picking on men with the same kind of namesOldKingCole said:0 -
Send me a message if you ever want to talk NW Leics, I have a biblical knowledge of the seat.foxinsoxuk said:
That is my kipper voting strategy too. Apart from Carswell, who looks pretty safe, their next biggest fights will have quite organised competition.isam said:
Its strange how the people that are convinced UKIP will win 4 seats max only think they can win the seats they are favourite in, when there are so many three way marginals (that were 2 way marginals) that they can win on lowish vote share.. obviously they are unlikely to win them but there will be 1 or 2 leftfield Kipper victories I thinkTissue_Price said:
Yes, if they end up 3-ways then obviously they're great UKIP chances too. I went through the list of short UKIP prices identifying what were Lab-Con marginals last time without too much LD presence.isam said:
Three of those were on my "UKIP best chance" list from April 2013 when they were 16s in Walsall North and Plymouth Moor View, and 20s in Dudley North.Tissue_Price said:The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/1
Only backed Dudley though, and that was for smalls
As such I have backed the kippers at good odds on a few longshots. I have Leicester West and Burton as two of these. I did also back the kippers in NW Leics back in November, this is a WWC seat, affected by HS2 but not benefitting from it, with a history of BNP activism. I also thought that Andrew Bridgen may defect and stand as a kipper with a very high chance of keeping the seat. Bridgen now seems very anti-kipper so this aspect of my stake seems to have been wrong.0 -
Isn't piquet what Rawdon Crawley plays in Vanity Fair ?Charles said:
My game of choice is Piquet - I guess if you mentioned it to a youngest these days you'd, at best, get a "yer what?"Peter_the_Punter said:@Charles
I used to play Nap, regularly.
It's a delightful little game, a derivative of whist. Solo is another, which has also declined to near extinction.
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I have been thinking 35 would be the ceiling however if the Tories hang on to their defecting Liberals who seem very firm in my canvassing experience and get half of the Con-UKIPers from 2010, xome of whom are pretty soft then you could not rule out a 37/38 vote share.Casino_Royale said:
'Ave it!Ave_it said:13 weeks to go...Ave It latest projection:
CON 37% 313
LAB 29% 266
LD 13% 30
SNP 16
PC 5
NI 18
UKIP 11% 1
GRN 5% 1
CON short by 12. CON + LD = maj 27
SNP do well in Scotland...against LD. They will come up short again and again v LAB. It's not going to happen for them!
Seriously, I can see the Tories squeaking 35% - and Labour getting 29% - but they ain't going to improve on the GE2010 seat share. I think topping out at 298-303 seats is the best Cameron can hope for.0 -
And if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.woody662 said:
I have been thinking 35 would be the ceiling however if the Tories hang on to their defecting Liberals who seem very firm in my canvassing experience and get half of the Con-UKIPers from 2010, xome of whom are pretty soft then you could not rule out a 37/38 vote share.Casino_Royale said:
'Ave it!Ave_it said:13 weeks to go...Ave It latest projection:
CON 37% 313
LAB 29% 266
LD 13% 30
SNP 16
PC 5
NI 18
UKIP 11% 1
GRN 5% 1
CON short by 12. CON + LD = maj 27
SNP do well in Scotland...against LD. They will come up short again and again v LAB. It's not going to happen for them!
Seriously, I can see the Tories squeaking 35% - and Labour getting 29% - but they ain't going to improve on the GE2010 seat share. I think topping out at 298-303 seats is the best Cameron can hope for.
They're going to get 31/32, same as Labour, Woody. And Others are going to get lots.
You at Cheltenham this year?0 -
Castle Point seems a better chance than ever with the news that the Independents who run the council are backing UKIP.. 11/8 not massive though.. people who say they are likely to only get one seat etc just don't look at places like thatfoxinsoxuk said:
That is my kipper voting strategy too. Apart from Carswell, who looks pretty safe, their next biggest fights will have quite organised competition.isam said:
Its strange how the people that are convinced UKIP will win 4 seats max only think they can win the seats they are favourite in, when there are so many three way marginals (that were 2 way marginals) that they can win on lowish vote share.. obviously they are unlikely to win them but there will be 1 or 2 leftfield Kipper victories I thinkTissue_Price said:
Yes, if they end up 3-ways then obviously they're great UKIP chances too. I went through the list of short UKIP prices identifying what were Lab-Con marginals last time without too much LD presence.isam said:
Three of those were on my "UKIP best chance" list from April 2013 when they were 16s in Walsall North and Plymouth Moor View, and 20s in Dudley North.Tissue_Price said:The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/1
Only backed Dudley though, and that was for smalls
As such I have backed the kippers at good odds on a few longshots. I have Leicester West and Burton as two of these. I did also back the kippers in NW Leics back in November, this is a WWC seat, affected by HS2 but not benefitting from it, with a history of BNP activism. I also thought that Andrew Bridgen may defect and stand as a kipper with a very high chance of keeping the seat. Bridgen now seems very anti-kipper so this aspect of my stake seems to have been wrong.
All round the Southend area and the western part of Essex UKIP are in with a shout, and there are still some nice prices around.. Southend East and Rochford I think is 10/1, that's a good chance
I say back them from Romford to Southend on the Liverpool st line, and Barking to Southend on the Fenchurch St.. that's the kind of areas they may pop up at a price0 -
Now here's a thought that occurred to me today:
The Casey report was originally expected to find things had changed in Rotherham - she's said that herself I believe.
It could then be announced that 'lessons have been learnt and systems strengthened' and everyone could pat themselves on the back and the government could continue doing nothing.
But Casey finds things haven't changed and to her credit inspects properly - this is why her report was delayed from its original November deadline.
And when Casey reports Pickles, whether he wanted to or not (and judging by his comments he didn't want to), is forced into real action.
But this creates a problem for the government - if an inspection shows that Rotherham council isn't 'fit for purpose' and needs to be put under government control how does the government justify its toleration of the South Yorkshire plods misconduct.
After all is there any PBer who thinks the SYP is 'fit for purpose' ?
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So Betfait have put up a copy cat Glasgow Correct Score market with slightly different prices. I think between trm there is a decent heging opportunity for me here rather than simply trading out for equalised results.
Taking Lab 7-0 6-1 5-2 will cut my downside to a third whilst still giving me a hefty upside.0 -
A plausible but tendentious line of argument, Richard.another_richard said:Now here's a thought that occurred to me today:
The Casey report was originally expected to find things had changed in Rotherham - she's said that herself I believe.
It could then be announced that 'lessons have been learnt and systems strengthened' and everyone could pat themselves on the back and the government could continue doing nothing.
But Casey finds things haven't changed and to her credit inspects properly - this is why her report was delayed from its original November deadline.
And when Casey reports Pickles, whether he wanted to or not (and judging by his comments he didn't want to), is forced into real action.
But this creates a problem for the government - if an inspection shows that Rotherham council isn't 'fit for purpose' and needs to be put under government control how does the government justify its toleration of the South Yorkshire plods misconduct.
After all is there any PBer who thinks the SYP is 'fit for purpose' ?
I won't argue, but lend you two thoughts. First is that Cameron has offered local MP Sarah Champion his support, and made funds available to the Rotherham inquiry team to further its work.
Second, Pickles is a decent bloke and wants the scumbags responsible for the Rotherham fiasco run out of town.
I honestly believe they want the stables cleaned out, good and proper.
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You may be a bit out of date. Russian population has been declining and getting more inebriated and dying early. In so far that its population is rising its by immigration, ie non Russians so fond of hardship.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
..kle4 said:
..Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. ..
...
Going On Topic, anyone who risks getting into a war with Russia is a total pr*tt.
Russians have an almost limitless capacity to tolerate hardship and an almost limitless ability to ship industry east out of the way of any warzone. We (and that includes the USA) have neither.
Not that anybody is interested in invading Russia, just in stopping Russia invading them.0 -
Too tired for tonights YG
FWIW I reckon a tie is most likely.0 -
The 'squeeze message' is "stop Labour/Conservatives getting in" but the media is reporting an expectation of a hung parliament.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
It would be a bit odd if UKIP didn't get squeezed a bit before the election. For a start a good chunk of their supporters in some marginals where UKIP have no chance will think that Ed winning is too high a price to pay and vote Tory holding their nose.numbercruncher said:Been hearing a few discussions about whether the smaller parties getting squeezed... It's too early to be sure, but one pattern has been for UKIP's vote share to drop among phone pollsters. Compared with December, UKIP has gained a point with ComRes, but dropped 2 points with Ipsos-MORI, 3 points with ICM and 4 points on average with Lord Ashcroft. There was only one Ashcroft National Poll in December, and its 19% may have been something of a blip, but January's average was still a point lower than November...
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/563434957742546945
Whats important is whether when squeezed, their vote becomes more lumpy, coalescing in places like Boston and Rochester where they have a realistic chance of winning.
If the expectation is for a hung parliament, then the election becomes about who might form a coalition within parliament.
That is a call for maximising the UKIP representation, not compromising on a Lab/Con option you don't much care for.
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Well Pickles is one of the few government ministers I would trust to ultimately do the right thing.Peter_the_Punter said:
A plausible but tendentious line of argument, Richard.another_richard said:Now here's a thought that occurred to me today:
The Casey report was originally expected to find things had changed in Rotherham - she's said that herself I believe.
It could then be announced that 'lessons have been learnt and systems strengthened' and everyone could pat themselves on the back and the government could continue doing nothing.
But Casey finds things haven't changed and to her credit inspects properly - this is why her report was delayed from its original November deadline.
And when Casey reports Pickles, whether he wanted to or not (and judging by his comments he didn't want to), is forced into real action.
But this creates a problem for the government - if an inspection shows that Rotherham council isn't 'fit for purpose' and needs to be put under government control how does the government justify its toleration of the South Yorkshire plods misconduct.
After all is there any PBer who thinks the SYP is 'fit for purpose' ?
I won't argue, but lend you two thoughts. First is that Cameron has offered local MP Sarah Champion his support, and made funds available to the Rotherham inquiry team to further its work.
Second, Pickles is a decent bloke and wants the scumbags responsible for the Rotherham fiasco run out of town.
I honestly believe they want the stables cleaned out, good and proper.
But that still doesn't explain the lack of action against the South Yorkshire plods.
And there's been so many cover-ups for so long on so many issues I now believe the most cynical attitude to state / government is more likely to be correct than not.
It has to be remembered that without the Times investigation the truth about Rotherham would never have become known, the public servcies would have otherwise have kept things hidden. That the government is finally being forced to take action years afterwards does not impress me, no matter how much I welcome that action.
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Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Tonight's lone by-election:
Brimington (Derbyshire): LAB def.
Bloody hell thats less than a mile away and i didnt have a clue.
So much for the LAB ground game0 -
They have lot the plot but probably not in the way your friends think.Richard_Nabavi said:
In all seriousness, I was talking to a couple of friends who are lifelong Liberal/LibDem supporters, and party members, who to my great surprise said they were probably not going to vote LibDem in 2015, "because Nick Clegg has lost the plot". And these are not the lefty, Labour-lite variety of LibDem, more from the classic Liberal Party tradition.Tissue_Price said:1/100 landed. I had that in a fourfold with BenM voting Labour, nigel4England voting UKIP and theuniondivvie voting SNP. Didn't dare risk adding OGH voting LD.
Clegg and the LDs nailed their colours to the mast and then spent the rest of the time trying to saw it off (reminding me of a Laurel and Hardy film).
Having made their move the only way they were going to make sense of it, and have any long term influence for what they are supposed to believe in, was to present a unified government front based on their agreement.
The LDs lost their AV referendum and then the plot. I suppose the Tories helped them by voting against HoL reform and shot themselves in the foot in the process - but HoL reform was botched by Clegg before the vote - and was he going to get anywhere with Labour?0 -
Patience, Richard.another_richard said:
Well Pickles is one of the few government ministers I would trust to ultimately do the right thing.Peter_the_Punter said:
A plausible but tendentious line of argument, Richard.another_richard said:Now here's a thought that occurred to me today:
The Casey report was originally expected to find things had changed in Rotherham - she's said that herself I believe.
It could then be announced that 'lessons have been learnt and systems strengthened' and everyone could pat themselves on the back and the government could continue doing nothing.
But Casey finds things haven't changed and to her credit inspects properly - this is why her report was delayed from its original November deadline.
And when Casey reports Pickles, whether he wanted to or not (and judging by his comments he didn't want to), is forced into real action.
But this creates a problem for the government - if an inspection shows that Rotherham council isn't 'fit for purpose' and needs to be put under government control how does the government justify its toleration of the South Yorkshire plods misconduct.
After all is there any PBer who thinks the SYP is 'fit for purpose' ?
I won't argue, but lend you two thoughts. First is that Cameron has offered local MP Sarah Champion his support, and made funds available to the Rotherham inquiry team to further its work.
Second, Pickles is a decent bloke and wants the scumbags responsible for the Rotherham fiasco run out of town.
I honestly believe they want the stables cleaned out, good and proper.
But that still doesn't explain the lack of action against the South Yorkshire plods.
And there's been so many cover-ups for so long on so many issues I now believe the most cynical attitude to state / government is more likely to be correct than not.
It has to be remembered that without the Times investigation the truth about Rotherham would never have become known, the public servcies would have otherwise have kept things hidden. That the government is finally being forced to take action years afterwards does not impress me, no matter how much I welcome that action.
You may not see too much activity pre-Election, but there's now too many good people working on this for it to be swept under the carpet. There's too much already in the public domain for it to be ignored. It's huge, and it will break in due course.0 -
Yebut that's no excuse to appease the Russians.Luckyguy1983 said:
We appease Saudi Arabia. And the groups they fund and train, directly or indirectly, constitute a REAL and ongoing danger.perdix said:
Whatever the Russian "capacity" we should not appease them.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
you need to read others as well such as Al Jazeera, other european press and those in USA and Africa to get a good balance.kle4 said:
It makes some sense in abstract, but the thing many people object to, is that plenty of people out there claim to be consuming both, but then take everything the Russians say at face value and accept all of their justifications as valid and reasonable while condemning everything the Western media is saying and scoffing at the idea there is any justification or reasonableness to the actions of the West.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Best post of the day.Luckyguy1983 said:It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.
And that is partly achieved by pretending that people who do think the Russians are worse in this quagmire are ignoring the less than shiny actions and reputations of the players on the Western side, which is not always the case at all. Just because someone has concluded the Russians are more at fault , for the sake of argument, does not mean they are an idiot stooge who is taking everything the western media is saying at face value.
Going On Topic, anyone who risks getting into a war with Russia is a total pr*tt.
Russians have an almost limitless capacity to tolerate hardship and an almost limitless ability to ship industry east out of the way of any warzone. We (and that includes the USA) have neither.
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@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%0
