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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting
As NATO meets with the Ukraine crisis looking gives her take pic.twitter.com/lTiQD5g2xV
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In the way that Turing was (chemically) castrated?
This could be the weirdest thread ever on pbc...
Unfortunately it looks like the Labour MP is putting in a lot of personal effort - door-to-door canvassing across the whole constituency, even visited me and I still have a Yes poster up in the window.
I was feeding my baby at the time otherwise I'd have been willing to have a good long chat.
Much as I dislike Putin and his thuggish kleptocracy it doesn't seem to me smart politics to corner him, even if one can.
"It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises."
But I must say I don't know (which means I don't know, not trying to make a sarcastic point) whether it is right to punish someone for a crime committed in the past by the method of punishment we have now? Is that poor form? I think it probably is on reflection
Also, if you look at the way progressive politics has led us, it may not be a crime for middle aged men to have sex with 10 year olds in 60 years or so, and films might be made about the cruel treatment Glitter received by even being put in jail/stopped shagging children
60 odd years ago people probably said Turing was a filthbag for being gay, but today he is a martyr, so I guess you have to consider the zeitgeist, strange as it may seem to us now
This is lot for any government to handle, especially a Coalition government winding down towards disengagement. There must be a risk that they will look like they are struggling to cope and undermine the competence card. Of course the electorate may look at Ed and just shudder at the prospect of him coping with such an in tray but there is definitely a risk of a wheel either coming off or being perceived to have done so.
In the words of the old Chinese curse we do indeed live in interesting times.
I wouldn't rely on Putin to do likewise.
Twenty more people have been charged with sexual offences as part of police’s Operation Sanctuary probe.
Those charged in Newcastle with rape, sexual exploitation, drug or other offences, but not yet tried of course are:
Eisa Mousavi
Monjur Choudhury
Redwan Siddquee
Mohammed Hassan Ali,
Abdulhamid Minoyee
Ebrahim Ali Habibur Rahim
Ibrahim Rousel
Mohammed Khalique
Mohammed Azram
Nadeem Aslam
Prabhat Nelli
Taherul Alam
Yassar Hussain
Jahangir Zaman
Badrul Hussain
Abdul Sabe
Karzan Mohammed
Saiful Islam
Nashir Uddin
See http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/northumbria-police-charged-20-people-8587632
A whole bunch of sensors set up to detect whether a nuclear bomb has gone off over Russia, and if communications with command and control have been cut, up go a bunch of communication missiles to send the launch codes to any surviving nuclear missiles scattered across Russia.
It is not possible to over-estimate Russian paranoia.
(It's funnier if you read it to yourself in Sellars' wonderful accent.)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/73f2f05e-ad25-11e4-bfcf-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3QnavtK8e
Their lending rate is now -0.75%.
If we could achieve that borrowing £100bn a year would give us a profit of £7.5bn or approximately twice the cuts the Lib Dems accept are needed to the welfare budget.
Have we gone through the looking glass or what?
Just a matter of time till the rest of Ukraine turns on the Galicians.
We have been very lucky we have a cool pragmatist in the Kremlin who has largely ignored the limp baiting by the US and their media chums.
Saudi production has remained flat.
Also planning one for Manchester. No date
Not counting chickens but the SNP should be ahead at least then
Nothing could be further than the truth. The people on this site are merely noticing what is going on around them.
Abu Hamza's real name
Mustafa Kamel
Could be as much as a hoot as the time I tried to join the BNP
The risk of war only arises if Putin were to come to believe that NATO would stand idly by in the event of a similar attempt on Latvia or Estonia (both with Russian minorities of ~25%) when NATO members were determined to fulfil their treaty commitments to defend the Baltic states.
As it is, Western policy is to make Putin's conquests pyrrhic, such that the cost is sufficient to deter the next. We'll give just enough support to Ukraine to make it difficult for Russia, without giving enough that we become emotionally invested in achieving victory. I don't know where Kiev lies. Potentially it's a 21st century Prague.
But didn't one teenage guy and his girlfriend use a crisp packet and a rubber band as a condom.
I just hope they didn't use a packet of salt and vinegar.
If their crime is deemed sufficiently serious that they should be permanently excluded from society (i.e. exile or in prison until they die) that's fine.
But to hang someone, or to castrate them, or to cut off their hands, or gouge out their eyes, etc, seems to put the state in a position of power over the individual that they have no right to assume.
The obvious answers are that they want Russia to abandon their support for Assad and they want to put the screws on Iran so it finds it harder to fund its proxy wars. And, I suspect, the Americans asked them to for these reasons and Ukraine. In the past the Saudis have not been particularly susceptible to US pressure but these are dangerous times.
Crusades
Abortion
etc.
Responds most of pb.
http://www.lettersofnote.com/2009/10/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then.html
A few years ago I was more worried about Vince Cable deploying his nuclear weapon because some pretty lady journalists batted their eyelashes at him than I was worried about Putin.
I said it was the Russians, we're the bookends of Europe that keep the Germans in their place.
The longer you delay the more you have to do and the more difficult it is. Big problems never start out as big. They start small. They're ignored. And then when they are big and/or unavoidable, you sometimes have to take drastic measures. That is, once you've got past the people wailing that the problem's so big that there's nothing you can do or you can't get rid of it all or this is all going to be horrible, let's put our fingers in our ears and shout "la la we can't hear you".
@DavidL
'The government is accused of doing nothing but the courts are going to grind to a halt at this rate.'
Is there any city or major town left in the UK that hasn't been contaminated by these scumbags?
http://www.pigprogress.net/Growing-Finishing/Environment/2010/12/EU-banning-piglet-castration-by-2018-PP006786W/
infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and
admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like
a god! the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals---"
Was Shakespeare taking the P?
As Machiavelli wrote, in the early stages a problem is hard to identify and easy to remedy. Later it becomes pain to see and hard to resolve. If we don't resolve it now, we make it harder later.
More to the point, who the hell would look at certain situations we've seen [not sure of posting rules on it presently] and think "That's something we should leave alone"?
That's not very maskirovka.
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/3976/analysis_of_voting_totals_in_the_scottish_independence_referendum_for_the_city_of_edinburgh_area
I was thinking about John Bercow's seat yesterday on the way home from work. As I understand it, political parties very rarely stand against a speaker. UKIP have nominated a candidate for the Buckingham constituency. If Labour, Lib Dems, etc. don't field candidates it would be John Bercow vs UKIP. Would UKIP stand a chance at unseating him as he won't be using the Tory name?
"Surprise plays a much greater role in strategy than in tactics. It is the most important element of victory. Napoleon, Frederick II, Gustavus Adolphus, Caesar, Hannibal, and Alexander owe the brightest rays of their fame to their swiftness"
That's all I'm saying.
Mr Cable had argued the Lib Dems should tackle the deficit through a 60-40 split between cuts in public spending and higher taxes. The party has adopted a plan featuring £14bn of tax rises and £16bn of cuts, closer to 50-50.
Last November, Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury and the man chosen by Mr Clegg to front the party’s economic campaign, argued that the coalition’s current split of 80-20 should be “broadly maintained”. Mr Clegg shared that view.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7c222872-ac89-11e4-beeb-00144feab7de.html#axzz3QtWr7900
So I might have been wrong on this. However, I think there is some confusion between the original 80-20 split proposed by Osborne in 2010, and the additional measures (i.e. the difference between Osborne and the LibDems) for the next parliament. The 50-50 refers to the latter, does it not?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand_(nuclear_war)
On fiscal policy it's a no brainer that Lab / Lib Dem looks a better fit than Tory / Lib Dem but that was also the case in the run up to GE 2010 and we all know what happened after that.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
The state does have that position of authority if people vote for it.. . the state is only an embodiment of the will of the people (Levithian is it?)
I would have a referendum on things like this, but have the status quo favoured so the vote for change has to win 60/40
Also I don't really see why its ok for the state to have the power to lock someone up until they die, but not to castrate paedophiles or torture/execute convicted terrorists. or why the punishment for murderers/paedophiles should be the same as for robbers/tax avoiders only for longer
Er, an unusual thread, why all the talk of ‘rubber-banding’, ‘bricks’ and ‘chemical castration’? – have the PB moderators upped the ante, or did I miss something FPT....?
If someone refuses to abide by the rules that society sets, then it is fair to exclude someone from the benefits of society. This can either be for a period of time or permanently. Thus, for example, I'm sure you would be a fan of deporting foreign criminals - which would be entirely consistent with this philosophical position.
But I'm very uncomfortable with the idea of people (whether 51% or 60%) saying "we don't like X, therefore we are going to vote to injury/kill him".
With just 13 weeks to go before polling day, no one knows to what extent such factors will actually come into play.
My own guess is that the reasonably feasible best and worst cases from a Tory perspective might look something like this:
Party...............Tory Best Case .............Tory Worst case
Con .................... 295 ................................ 260
Lab ......................265 ................................ 300
Lib Dem ............... 20 .................................. 30
SNP ..................... 45 ................................. 27
UKIP ...................... 2 ................................. 12
N.I. ....................... 18 .................................. 18
Others .................... 5 ................................... 3
Total .................. 650 ................................ 650
Tory+LD+DUP = 323 Lab+LD = .............. 330
Still a fair amount to play for, but the above numbers appear to significantly favour Labour in terms of the various possible permutations.
But an Enlightenment would be good. Fat chance. At the moment anway.