The Road To Zero (Labour MPs) – politicalbetting.com
The Road To Zero (Labour MPs) – politicalbetting.com
Since the 2024 general election the popularity of the Labour government has not followed the path generally expected of one elected with a landslide majority, plumbing depths only previously reached by the Truss government.
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Already, fewer than 18 months after winning a landslide, the previous article was all about changing leader.
There's another three years for the landscape to look radically different. The length of time to the next election is farther away than the time when Boris Johnson was PM.
This was painfully clear in Keir Starmer's first election debate with Rishi Sunak.
The fundamental, and rather arcane, divide in GE2024 was between borough and county constituencies, Labour being very meh in their heartland boroughs without losing many seats, but decent in the counties where they gained loads.
A lot of us saw that Labour were very good on where they were picking up votes, I was saying the southern towns would be the story, a more negative but valid spin was 'a mile wide and inch deep'.
I saw on a constituency level that there was a threat from Independents, and called that right, without really appreciating the wider depression in the vote share in Labour held constituencies.
I wouldn't bet a against a surviving SKS and his team playing the FPTP game well again next time out, but the end result of that would likely be a well hung parliament.
https://philmcduff.substack.com/p/the-unbearable-weight-of-small-absences
Moment newly opened bridge collapses in China
Fall of 2,500ft bridge raises doubts about quality of Beijing’s infrastructure projects
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/12/moment-newly-opened-bridge-collapses-in-china/
..In a recent podcast about rhetoric David Runciman made the uncontentious point that Keir Starmer is very bad at rhetoric, the fundamental political skill of communicating to the public to build support. Not only is Keir Starmer not good at this, he fundamentally misunderstood the need to be good at it...
Luke Tryl* made a similar point yesterday when he said that this had become a "can't do", rather than "can do" government.
The electorate aren't entirely idiotic, and know that there are constraints on government's resources, and ability to do things - but all of Tryl's polling/focus group work indicated that voters strongly prefer leaders who say what they will do (even if it's often bullshit**), rather than going on about how hard it all is.
That might not be so much of a problem if this government actually got on with some of the positive stuff they can do ... but largely they haven't.
(* apologies to @ydoethur for mentioning a former Director, Corporate Strategy at Ofsted.)
(** no apologies to Farage, or the Green hypnotist.)
Boris Johnson was followed by Liz Truss. What happens if Starmer is replaced by someone less suited to be PM?
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ilford North
So their "fixes" to home building have resulted in the construction industry going into a slump, for example.
And they treat legal reversals in the courts as if the courts were the Third & Highest Chamber of Parliament.
It would be quite the election if the sitting PM lost his own seat, and there wasn’t an obvious quick by-election that would be won by him rather than face a single populist candidate against him.
Certainly as the campaign went on they just bled support.
No planning permission required to build “temporary” housing on existing military land, set up camps for the asylum seekers away from the general public, underwrite 50-year warranties on modular houses, etc.
If anyone wants to submit a thread, send me a message.
https://x.com/jaheale/status/1988601633304154387?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I don't think the Greens would necessarily be the main beneficiaries either, Yougov gives Davey a +27% rating with 2024 Labour voters compared to -7% for Starmer amongst the same group. Polanski though is only +12% with 2024 Labour voters, so you would expect on those numbers more 2024 Labour voters to go LD than Green (Corbyn is on -7% like Starmer with Labour voters at the last GE so they won't go YP either)
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_251014.pdf
Plus if Reform were only on 30% you would expect tactical votes for Labour in Labour held seats if they keep second in the polls to beat Farage
It reminds me of those Guardian football "wonderkids to follow"....
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/35piaZDYO3Q
Will the last business in Britain please turn off the lights.
That's the main point I want to make. Starmer is capable of taking Labour from 411 to 0. The situation is that bad.
She must have a big family
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1988589236778598683?s=19
“The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,”
Published with a real name as well, hope you eventually remembered your password?
Reeves was also good with Mortimer.
As Chancellor though? Awful.
The ASA regime is not working with Youtube.
Nihil malum est si peius fieri potest (Nothing is bad if worse is possible)
and, courtesy of St Trinian's:
Primum ictum tuum infer (Get your blow in first)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66ae077XQJY
Rigby looks like she was ready for tears.
Despite proof it works.
I mean, look at it -
No moving parts, change once every decade or 2.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6nurI34K29M
Apparently only a handful of MPs stuck around. Most ate and left before he arrived.
‘Not sure they even knew he was coming,’ one MP says.
‘If that was outreach, it was woeful,’ says another.
https://x.com/ShehabKhan/status/1988603066992775639?s=20
This we already know.
He seems to have put in an impressive audition overnight..
https://x.com/KarlTurnerMP/status/1975618723399835823#m
EDIT: Short version, Italian dam constructed in a place with poor geology. Landslide resulted, wiping out whole villages. Interestingly, the dam survived but is completely useless.
Would you like the job of Justice Minister in my administration?
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1988384149753798995#m
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1988285629462180221#m
LARGE METAPHOR COLLAPSES OVERNIGHT: "I WONDER WHAT THAT MEANS" SAYS STREETING AFTER LISTING HIS ACCOMPLISHMENTS AT LENGTH
The BBC's "anti-bias" dossier that called out Panorama for splicing together disconnected quotes itself spliced together disconnected quotes.
According to Michael Prescott Trump actually said the following, which indicated there was no incitement to riot:
We are gonna walk down to the Capitol and I’ll be with you. I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.
What Trump actually, actually said it appears was the following, with the bit that Prescott cut out in italics and a clear incitement to riot;
We’re gonna walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.
Because you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated.
I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”
https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3m5gxauahck2e
And similarly their transport projects are impressive, but impressive exercises in expensively shuttling empty air around.
China’s economy doesn’t work like ours. They decide in advance what growth will be, then do as much *stuff* - whether needed or not – so that their GDP matches up to that. That way a reckoning lies.
But of course other view are available and I'd invite @Leon to present a counterpoint.
Even so ...
Ed Miliband flew twice to Brazil and back in the past week, to tell the rest of us to reduce our carbon emissions.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/11/12/ed-miliband-flies-to-brazil-climate-conference-twice/
Mind it doesn't always work. Slab once put out a press release bitterly attacking the SNP for misquoting someone or other by leaving stuff out full stop. Slab hadn't realised what the funny characters meant.
https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/11/uk_probe_china_bus_claim/
UK governmental is working with the National Cyber Security Centre to understand and "mitigate" any risk that China-made imported electric buses could be remotely accessed and potentially disabled.
This follows concerns raised by Norwegian public transport service operator, Ruter, which conducted cybersecurity tests on a new vehicle made by bus maker Yutong and said it identified vulnerabilities in its on-board systems.