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Tears for Keir as we approach the end of the Keir show? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,781
edited 7:14AM in General
Tears for Keir as we approach the end of the Keir show? – politicalbetting.com

EXC: Keir Starmer has privately vowed to face down any leadership challenge post-budget or May electionsAllies warn MPs of market chaos and say he won't quit if ministers demand he goes – but dare them to find 80 MPs and trigger a contest he'd fighthttps://t.co/p9sPvu6BoX

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Comments

  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,929
    edited 7:21AM
    Too early. Nigel has the GM pencilled for 2027.

    Second
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,369
    I wonder how apt the Corbyn comparison is. Given he was mere LOTO, the realities were different. Labour’s polling is so bad, aggrieved MPs might find it tempting to break from the party entirely and slowly erode his majority. Or at least that is the threat they will make and we will see who blinks first.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,170
    Taz said:

    Come on @TheScreamingEagles

    ‘The End of the Keir Show’, surely

    Masterful. TSE's was also good though.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,904

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,170
    Keir in present danger.

    Pun on 'clear and present danger' - but if you're explaining you're losing.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,580
    There's nothing for Keir but fear itself.

    FPT:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Stephen Bush
    @stephenkb
    ·
    38m
    The important story behind this story is that someone in Downing Street is having a breakdown:

    https://x.com/stephenkb/status/1988383141254345058

    Just one?
    Would probably need to be 2, dont think BBC would run it if its just one person briefing...
    The Guardian reports on widespread backbench doubts about Starmer continuing.

    ..Many of the MPs who were selected as Labour’s “high-quality candidates” were built in Starmer’s own image: ambitious, thoughtful, many with careers outside politics, loyal to the project of a centrist Labour government that prioritises power but cares about equality.

    Many of them remain loyal to that project, but that project could just as easily have a different leader, because Starmer has never really attempted to cultivate personal loyalty.

    It has been a real twist to see so many now with an appetite for regime change. They are not – by and large – people who came into politics to practise coups, but have instead been driven to the brink by the party’s woeful standing and their own very thin majorities. As one Labour MP said: “They could try not being paranoid and just try being better.”..
    Starmer and his inner circle have just guaranteed that more backbenchers will have those doubts.

    Honestly, what a bunch of clowns. I’m feeling very Brenda from Bristol about this. Have we now entered an era where everyone’s political reflex in every party is to change leaders as soon as they slump in the polls?
    Yes, because we have acres of Permanews and Permacomment that need filling.

    Plus, there's a hefty gap between public expectation and realistic possibility for governments across the West.

    But as for last night's shenanigans... A Number Ten Source (and I assume that we're all assuming the same name) needs to be sent on a nice long fact-finding mission. I suggest a global tour of His Majesty's overseas territories, with the aim of finding a long-term home for Mr Mountbatten-Windsor.

    Actually, find somewhere nice for yourself while you're at it, Morgan.

    (Ooh, what a giveaway!)
    There's nothing wrong with PMs delegating stuff. It's probably the only way out system can work. And it's sensible that SKS delegates the "politics", because he's unambiguously bad at it.
    But it is still his responsibility, and it's therefore important that he doesn't delegate it to an overinflated ego who got lucky once.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,458
    edited 7:36AM
    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,369

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,458
    edited 7:45AM
    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing in today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,170
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    1. I'll take your word for it.
    2. That is not in any way 'getting us back on track' - it will excacerbate housing costs in the short term and could lead to massive US venture capital takeovers of housing stock in the longer term.
    3. Whether this is 'back on track', except literally, remains to be seen. Changing the ownership of something is not in and of itself a beneficial development.
    4. A small reduction in waiting lists is to be welcomed
    5. Onshore wind in Scotland is largely a racket, as well as being a visual blight. I don't consider that to be 'back on track' but enjoy.
    6. Got to be the worst Chancellor of our lifetimes.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,580

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    One might hope so.

    What happens if Congress votes, and the Administration says "sorry, the shredder dog ate all our copies"?

    I'd love to think that they have Really Got Him This Time, but experience says that happens less often than we wish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,458
    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    Today will start it: he is pushed down the slippery slide, the vote on release being the first gentle push in the small of the back down the vertiginous drop....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,707

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing in today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    I see no guarantee of today.

    I think that just house procedures give him 7 days to bring the swearing in forward, aside from any other tricks pulled by Maga Mike.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,458

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    One might hope so.

    What happens if Congress votes, and the Administration says "sorry, the shredder dog ate all our copies"?

    I'd love to think that they have Really Got Him This Time, but experience says that happens less often than we wish.
    To many copies will crawl out the woodwork. Way to much for "Fakes! AI!" t be ignored...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,910
    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    Its going to be spectacular when it happens, but not yet on the cards.

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,313
    I was hoping for more effectiveness from SKS and the Labour government, but it doesn't seem a good idea for them to follow the Conservatives' pattern of changing leader frequently. True, they have a lot of people who'd all like a go, no doubt, but IMHO it would be better to try to find a plan & put it into practice.

    Changing leaders is instability.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,698
    I want/need this.



  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,891

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    One might hope so.

    What happens if Congress votes, and the Administration says "sorry, the shredder dog ate all our copies"?

    I'd love to think that they have Really Got Him This Time, but experience says that happens less often than we wish.
    Indeed. The administration could just ignore Congress, or be selective about what is released. Despite some feverish rumouring, we don’t actually know what’s in the files. Many rumours turn out to be nonsense. There may be nothing, or nothing beyond what we already know. There may be more damaging material, but it’s testimony or circumstantial, so it can be dismissed. Trump has sexually assaulted multiple adult women: this has been well-documented, and adjudged to be true in one civil case by a jury. Yet MAGA voters ignore it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,458
    AnneJGP said:

    I was hoping for more effectiveness from SKS and the Labour government, but it doesn't seem a good idea for them to follow the Conservatives' pattern of changing leader frequently. True, they have a lot of people who'd all like a go, no doubt, but IMHO it would be better to try to find a plan & put it into practice.

    Changing leaders is instability.

    The downside of a massive majority - too many ambitious souls think they'd be better than what they've got. Which is probably fair, on the evidence available...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,744
    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    Of course not, his semi final is not til Friday. I think he may go then though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,377
    edited 8:05AM
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I see Labour's quest to waste billions on people who don't deserve it has taken another step forward with the decision to 're-consider' the WASPI women and their grasping demands:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c709y7ln5zro

    And Reeves, burdened by the surplus of treasure, is muttering about flinging some at those with more than two children. Got to waste some of our excess wealth somehow, I suppose:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70j7dxjp5wo

    Two very different issues being conflated.

    If people actually want more child poverty the two child cap is a very effective way to achieve it. If you think governments, in particular a Labour government, should aim to reduce child poverty, removing the cap is by far the most cost-effective measure you can make. It's a choice and a question how serious you are about that choice.

    Unusually on this site, I think the previous government badly screwed up the second pension age increase and the WASPI women have a fairly strong case, albeit a much more limited one than the one they are making. As a comparison, I think their case is stronger than those taking out variable interest car loans in the recent court case and regulatory compensation decision. Which is the key point. Car loan companies were legally compelled to provide compensation. There's no political appetite to compensate WASPI women but as the case is heading to Judicial Review where I reckon, and the government presumably also reckons it has a high chance of losing, it's about limiting the damage.


    Why do you reckon the govt has a high chance of losing the judicial review over the WASPI women ?
    The ground has already been covered by the relevant ombudsman who has recommended compensation to WASPI women on maladministration grounds. You can read about it here: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9967/

    The JR will be taking the same angle of whether correct procedures were followed but this time with legal force. I doubt the judge will be impressed by the government's defence that it didn't matter that the women weren't informed as no-one ever reads any of the letters DWP sends.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,458
    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing in today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    I see no guarantee of today.

    I think that just house procedures give him 7 days to bring the swearing in forward, aside from any other tricks pulled by Maga Mike.
    Stalling will just make it worse.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,891

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing in today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    I see no guarantee of today.

    I think that just house procedures give him 7 days to bring the swearing in forward, aside from any other tricks pulled by Maga Mike.
    Stalling will just make it worse.
    It’s worked pretty well so far!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,387
    edited 8:07AM
    Starmer is political kryptonite right now, but even if you subscribe to the notion that he will likely need to go before the next GE save for a miraculous Falklands-style recovery (as I do), now is not the time or the way, frankly.

    Of course, this all looks like Downing Street briefing to get ahead of a story; and creating a story themselves. Which is symptomatic of the terrible way they run comms.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,822
    edited 8:07AM
    Marj has a little list.
    Unless it includes Big D very much in flagrante I’m not sure how much impact it will have.

    https://x.com/politvidchannel/status/1988333930416939097?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,313
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I see Labour's quest to waste billions on people who don't deserve it has taken another step forward with the decision to 're-consider' the WASPI women and their grasping demands:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c709y7ln5zro

    And Reeves, burdened by the surplus of treasure, is muttering about flinging some at those with more than two children. Got to waste some of our excess wealth somehow, I suppose:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70j7dxjp5wo

    Two very different issues being conflated.

    If people actually want more child poverty the two child cap is a very effective way to achieve it. If you think governments, in particular a Labour government, should aim to reduce child poverty, removing the cap is by far the most cost-effective measure you can make. It's a choice and a question how serious you are about that choice.

    Unusually on this site, I think the previous government badly screwed up the second pension age increase and the WASPI women have a fairly strong case, albeit a much more limited one than the one they are making. As a comparison, I think their case is stronger than those taking out variable interest car loans in the recent court case and regulatory compensation decision. Which is the key point. Car loan companies were legally compelled to provide compensation. There's no political appetite to compensate WASPI women but as the case is heading to Judicial Review where I reckon, and the government presumably also reckons it has a high chance of losing, it's about limiting the damage.


    Why do you reckon the govt has a high chance of losing the judicial review over the WASPI women ?
    The ground has already been covered by the relevant ombudsman who has recommended compensation to WASPI women on maladministration grounds. You can read about it here: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9967/

    The JR will be taking the same angle of whether correct procedures were followed but this time with legal force. I doubt the judge will be impressed by the government's defence that it didn't matter that the women weren't informed as no-one ever reads any of the letters DWP sends.
    If they didn't take any notice of the publicity it's highly likely they would have chucked a DWP envelope in the recycling unopened.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,891
    Trump supporter and financier named as couple in Bond Street Tube ‘assault and racist abuse’ police appeal

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-supporter-financier-named-couple-114059650.html
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,744

    AnneJGP said:

    I was hoping for more effectiveness from SKS and the Labour government, but it doesn't seem a good idea for them to follow the Conservatives' pattern of changing leader frequently. True, they have a lot of people who'd all like a go, no doubt, but IMHO it would be better to try to find a plan & put it into practice.

    Changing leaders is instability.

    The downside of a massive majority - too many ambitious souls think they'd be better than what they've got. Which is probably fair, on the evidence available...
    Is it, which of the cabinet do you think would do a clearly better job?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,904
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    I don't hate SKS.

    But I think him and Reeves are caught in this loop, where they are just reacting - in particular on the fiscal side.

    Fiscal hole... need to fill it... cut spending... raise taxes... ohhh... economic growth has slowed and now have a fiscal hole...

    Rinse and repeat.

    It's made worse by the government's desire to appease Trump. As China has shown, there is no appeasing Trump. The only way you win concessions is to stand up to him. SKS (and the Foreign Office, I suspect) think that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any normal, rational economic actor, and it's not.

    SKS and Reeves need to take a step back.

    I would give them two pieces of advice.

    Firstly, properly fund the criminal justice system, so that visible crimes like shoplifting stop being endemic.

    Secondly, look at what can be reformed to get economic growth moving. And I'd start with the property system in the UK: I would significatly loosen up plannning restrictions, and reform (ideally eliminate) stamp duty and replace it with some kind of property tax (land value or equivalent). This would also have the pleasant effect of getting rid of the absurd abuse of the stamp duty system at the high end where companies own houses, and then the company is sold, therefore avoiding tax.
    I'd love us to stand up to Trump. It would feel great. But so far Keir seems to have got the best deal/tarrifs compared to EU and other countries.

    China is an exception i think because they actually are powerful enough to stand up to him.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,904
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    I don't hate SKS.

    But I think him and Reeves are caught in this loop, where they are just reacting - in particular on the fiscal side.

    Fiscal hole... need to fill it... cut spending... raise taxes... ohhh... economic growth has slowed and now have a fiscal hole...

    Rinse and repeat.

    It's made worse by the government's desire to appease Trump. As China has shown, there is no appeasing Trump. The only way you win concessions is to stand up to him. SKS (and the Foreign Office, I suspect) think that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any normal, rational economic actor, and it's not.

    SKS and Reeves need to take a step back.

    I would give them two pieces of advice.

    Firstly, properly fund the criminal justice system, so that visible crimes like shoplifting stop being endemic.

    Secondly, look at what can be reformed to get economic growth moving. And I'd start with the property system in the UK: I would significatly loosen up plannning restrictions, and reform (ideally eliminate) stamp duty and replace it with some kind of property tax (land value or equivalent). This would also have the pleasant effect of getting rid of the absurd abuse of the stamp duty system at the high end where companies own houses, and then the company is sold, therefore avoiding tax.
    I'd love us to stand up to Trump. It would feel great. But so far Keir seems to have got the best deal/tarrifs compared to EU and other countries.

    China is an exception i think because they actually are powerful enough to stand up to him.
    I think you are right about being caught in a reactive cycle. And i agree about criminal justice and property taxes and am hopeful on both.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,322
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    I don't hate SKS.

    But I think him and Reeves are caught in this loop, where they are just reacting - in particular on the fiscal side.

    Fiscal hole... need to fill it... cut spending... raise taxes... ohhh... economic growth has slowed and now have a fiscal hole...

    Rinse and repeat.

    It's made worse by the government's desire to appease Trump. As China has shown, there is no appeasing Trump. The only way you win concessions is to stand up to him. SKS (and the Foreign Office, I suspect) think that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any normal, rational economic actor, and it's not.

    SKS and Reeves need to take a step back.

    I would give them two pieces of advice.

    Firstly, properly fund the criminal justice system, so that visible crimes like shoplifting stop being endemic.

    Secondly, look at what can be reformed to get economic growth moving. And I'd start with the property system in the UK: I would significatly loosen up plannning restrictions, and reform (ideally eliminate) stamp duty and replace it with some kind of property tax (land value or equivalent). This would also have the pleasant effect of getting rid of the absurd abuse of the stamp duty system at the high end where companies own houses, and then the company is sold, therefore avoiding tax.
    I'd love us to stand up to Trump. It would feel great. But so far Keir seems to have got the best deal/tarrifs compared to EU and other countries.

    China is an exception i think because they actually are powerful enough to stand up to him.
    The more people stand up to him, the more people will be emboldened to stand up to him.

    It's OK to be frst. (And I suspect it would be popular too.)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,875

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing in today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    I see no guarantee of today.

    I think that just house procedures give him 7 days to bring the swearing in forward, aside from any other tricks pulled by Maga Mike.
    Stalling will just make it worse.
    The only person likely to be investigated by US law enforcement over Epstein is the alleged sex offender formerly known as Prince Andrew.
    Sadly nothing is going to touch Trump
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,322
    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,159
    Good morning

    What a mess Labour are in with Starmer and Reeves making Truss look good and delivering a slow motion economic disaster and turning in on themselves

    Many would sit back with a smug expression but not me

    This is a deadly serious crisis for the country and we have 3 more years of it
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,580
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    One of the dangers for Starmer is the number of thoughtful people (here, for example) who are automatically pessimistic about this question.

    I don't know how anyone fixes that, and I'm not sure changing PM would me more than a temporary fix. We just live in untrusting times.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,322

    Trump supporter and financier named as couple in Bond Street Tube ‘assault and racist abuse’ police appeal

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-supporter-financier-named-couple-114059650.html

    I think I may have met the gentleman in question at some point. Certainly the name is familiar, and it's* a world I'm involved in.

    * VC, not MAGA
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,377
    edited 8:21AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,313

    I want/need this.



    Looks as though it's being modelled by Prince Harry.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,252
    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    I still find it difficult to believe that, if there was something in the Epstein files that was so disqualifying for Trump that half the Senate GOP would vote to impeach him or for his Cabinet to invoke 25th Amendment, that it wouldn’t have leaked from Biden’s DOJ to a friendly journalist before the election.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,904

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    Lets see. As a (rare pb?) renter who supports rebalancing the relationship away from landlords to tenants, the renters rights bill seems like a mess. Taking a third of your parliamentary term to get planning changes through is stalling if you are committing to record housebuilding, and that is if does happen by the end of the year. And will the chancellor actually make some bold decisions and raise an extra £50bn+ or just tinker at the margins?

    They have been far too timid and cautious which worked fine when seeking power but is a terrible strategy that pleases no-one when in government.
    Laws take time, 18 months for a complex piece of legislation isnt that unusual.

    I agree Reeves should give herself headroom and that govt needs to be bolder.

    I dont know what your objections are to renters right but ending no fault evictions is a huge change for the sector which will provide a lot of stability to people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,182

    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    Today will start it: he is pushed down the slippery slide, the vote on release being the first gentle push in the small of the back down the vertiginous drop....
    A gentle first push down the slide doesn't dominate world news, though.
    This will likely take months to play out.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,313

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    One of the dangers for Starmer is the number of thoughtful people (here, for example) who are automatically pessimistic about this question.

    I don't know how anyone fixes that, and I'm not sure changing PM would me more than a temporary fix. We just live in untrusting times.
    It is true, I suppose, that Labour MPs went into politics to try to give people more money.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,387

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    One of the dangers for Starmer is the number of thoughtful people (here, for example) who are automatically pessimistic about this question.

    I don't know how anyone fixes that, and I'm not sure changing PM would me more than a temporary fix. We just live in untrusting times.
    I think the electorate is increasingly favouring the brave politicians - those who say what they want to do unapologetically and get on with doing it. Whether the public actually then want the impacts of those policies once enacted is a very open question, but you won’t get any political capital unless you fight for the policies in the first place.

    Starmer is a creature of a more politically timid time where triangulation and tentative policy making paid dividends. Increasingly that approach looks to be running out of road.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,904
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    I don't hate SKS.

    But I think him and Reeves are caught in this loop, where they are just reacting - in particular on the fiscal side.

    Fiscal hole... need to fill it... cut spending... raise taxes... ohhh... economic growth has slowed and now have a fiscal hole...

    Rinse and repeat.

    It's made worse by the government's desire to appease Trump. As China has shown, there is no appeasing Trump. The only way you win concessions is to stand up to him. SKS (and the Foreign Office, I suspect) think that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any normal, rational economic actor, and it's not.

    SKS and Reeves need to take a step back.

    I would give them two pieces of advice.

    Firstly, properly fund the criminal justice system, so that visible crimes like shoplifting stop being endemic.

    Secondly, look at what can be reformed to get economic growth moving. And I'd start with the property system in the UK: I would significatly loosen up plannning restrictions, and reform (ideally eliminate) stamp duty and replace it with some kind of property tax (land value or equivalent). This would also have the pleasant effect of getting rid of the absurd abuse of the stamp duty system at the high end where companies own houses, and then the company is sold, therefore avoiding tax.
    I'd love us to stand up to Trump. It would feel great. But so far Keir seems to have got the best deal/tarrifs compared to EU and other countries.

    China is an exception i think because they actually are powerful enough to stand up to him.
    The more people stand up to him, the more people will be emboldened to stand up to him.

    It's OK to be frst. (And I suspect it would be popular too.)
    I think Mark Carney tried to be the first. Got him elected but not sure it's gone well since.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,252

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    Lets see. As a (rare pb?) renter who supports rebalancing the relationship away from landlords to tenants, the renters rights bill seems like a mess. Taking a third of your parliamentary term to get planning changes through is stalling if you are committing to record housebuilding, and that is if does happen by the end of the year. And will the chancellor actually make some bold decisions and raise an extra £50bn+ or just tinker at the margins?

    They have been far too timid and cautious which worked fine when seeking power but is a terrible strategy that pleases no-one when in government.
    A housebuilding and planning reform bill should have been written and ready to go within a fortnight of the election last year. Knowing how long it takes to build houses, if they want to see real progress on the issue before the next election it’s now already too late.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,182
    Whatever else one thinks of Streeting (I don't have a strong opinion either way), he made a fairly good point this morning about the ease with which ministers can arbitrarily increase civil serve headcount in their departments with little or no public pushback, compared with the difficulty of making any reduction, irrespective of the case for it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,369
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    Today will start it: he is pushed down the slippery slide, the vote on release being the first gentle push in the small of the back down the vertiginous drop....
    A gentle first push down the slide doesn't dominate world news, though.
    This will likely take months to play out.
    I think it’s fair to assume there is content in the files that might be embarrassing to Trump. But I am personally sceptical if there’s anything sufficiently contentious to abort his presidency. Theres been a very long time indeed for it to leak.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,322
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    I still find it difficult to believe that, if there was something in the Epstein files that was so disqualifying for Trump that half the Senate GOP would vote to impeach him or for his Cabinet to invoke 25th Amendment, that it wouldn’t have leaked from Biden’s DOJ to a friendly journalist before the election.
    I tend to agree: there may be embarassing stuff, but certainly not disqualifying stuff.

    Of course, there's almost certainly a lot of very embarassing stuff for certain Democrats too, which may also explain the why the Biden White Hosue was not that keen to open Pandora's Box.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,785
    Evens in 2026 is very good value. A leadership challenge in 2026 is nailed on after the local/Assembly elections if it doesn't happen before then, and although there is a chance one may be initiated in November 2025 it looks too late now for that to reach its conclusion before the new year, so Starmer wont be replaced until then.

    I would read recent history differently to TSE. Recent history (in 2016) shows that Labour MPs ARE willing to initiate leadership challenges in extreme circumstances. The fact that the challenge of Owen Smith failed was only down to a historical anomaly where the dominant view of Corbyn amongst the membership was completely out of line with the views of MPs. That isn't the case this time, Starmer is seen to be an total electoral liability across all wings of the party.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,377
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,744
    edited 8:31AM
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    Lets see. As a (rare pb?) renter who supports rebalancing the relationship away from landlords to tenants, the renters rights bill seems like a mess. Taking a third of your parliamentary term to get planning changes through is stalling if you are committing to record housebuilding, and that is if does happen by the end of the year. And will the chancellor actually make some bold decisions and raise an extra £50bn+ or just tinker at the margins?

    They have been far too timid and cautious which worked fine when seeking power but is a terrible strategy that pleases no-one when in government.
    Laws take time, 18 months for a complex piece of legislation isnt that unusual.

    I agree Reeves should give herself headroom and that govt needs to be bolder.

    I dont know what your objections are to renters right but ending no fault evictions is a huge change for the sector which will provide a lot of stability to people.
    Fixed price, and max 1 month deposit on new tenancies. Makes it very difficult for those with capital rather than income, which will be a growing sector, to rent at all.

    Annual rent review process - It just doesn't work, about 4.7m households with 34 judges overseeing the process, gridlock inevitable......it is in the tenants short term favour but it is madness to design it like this.

    In favour of the end of Section 21.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,369
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    Lets see. As a (rare pb?) renter who supports rebalancing the relationship away from landlords to tenants, the renters rights bill seems like a mess. Taking a third of your parliamentary term to get planning changes through is stalling if you are committing to record housebuilding, and that is if does happen by the end of the year. And will the chancellor actually make some bold decisions and raise an extra £50bn+ or just tinker at the margins?

    They have been far too timid and cautious which worked fine when seeking power but is a terrible strategy that pleases no-one when in government.
    A housebuilding and planning reform bill should have been written and ready to go within a fortnight of the election last year. Knowing how long it takes to build houses, if they want to see real progress on the issue before the next election it’s now already too late.
    There are many projects around my way which have already absorbed the fixed cost of land acquisition and planning process, have started and are now stalled at a much reduced number of dwellings, because the houses cannot be sold for more than the variable cost of building them.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,514
    edited 8:32AM
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    Lets see. As a (rare pb?) renter who supports rebalancing the relationship away from landlords to tenants, the renters rights bill seems like a mess. Taking a third of your parliamentary term to get planning changes through is stalling if you are committing to record housebuilding, and that is if does happen by the end of the year. And will the chancellor actually make some bold decisions and raise an extra £50bn+ or just tinker at the margins?

    They have been far too timid and cautious which worked fine when seeking power but is a terrible strategy that pleases no-one when in government.
    Laws take time, 18 months for a complex piece of legislation isnt that unusual.

    I agree Reeves should give herself headroom and that govt needs to be bolder.

    I dont know what your objections are to renters right but ending no fault evictions is a huge change for the sector which will provide a lot of stability to people.
    The renters right bill is pretty weak stuff, from this Scottish landlord's perspective. Should have at least matched what we have up here.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,891
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,698

    Evens in 2026 is very good value. A leadership challenge in 2026 is nailed on after the local/Assembly elections if it doesn't happen before then, and although there is a chance one may be initiated in November 2025 it looks too late now for that to reach its conclusion before the new year, so Starmer wont be replaced until then.

    I would read recent history differently to TSE. Recent history (in 2016) shows that Labour MPs ARE willing to initiate leadership challenges in extreme circumstances. The fact that the challenge of Owen Smith failed was only down to a historical anomaly where the dominant view of Corbyn amongst the membership was completely out of line with the views of MPs. That isn't the case this time, Starmer is seen to be an total electoral liability across all wings of the party.

    How about 2008 to 2010 when lots of plots to oust Gordon Brown came to nothing?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,712

    moonshine said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    What did I miss while I was in the pub last night?
    The swearing in today of Adelita Grijalva, the signatory needed to ensure Congress will have to vote on the release of the Epstein files.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM......
    You’re assuming the administration obeys congress though
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,707

    Marj has a little list.
    Unless it includes Big D very much in flagrante I’m not sure how much impact it will have.

    https://x.com/politvidchannel/status/1988333930416939097?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The source seems to be an MTG tweet from September, the month before the shutdown started.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,744
    Sean_F said:

    It’s bizarre that a government with 410 seats should be a lame duck, after just 18 months.

    I could envisage Farage getting a similar number of seats and not just being a lame duck but losing his majority within 18 months of the election.

    It ain't easy governing the UK any more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,182
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    I still find it difficult to believe that, if there was something in the Epstein files that was so disqualifying for Trump that half the Senate GOP would vote to impeach him or for his Cabinet to invoke 25th Amendment, that it wouldn’t have leaked from Biden’s DOJ to a friendly journalist before the election.
    I tend to agree: there may be embarassing stuff, but certainly not disqualifying stuff.

    Of course, there's almost certainly a lot of very embarassing stuff for certain Democrats too, which may also explain the why the Biden White House was not that keen to open Pandora's Box.
    I don't think anything about this is certain, at all.
    But there is very likely some extremely damaging stuff about very wealthy people in there, who have a great deal of political influence.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,712
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    I don't hate SKS.

    But I think him and Reeves are caught in this loop, where they are just reacting - in particular on the fiscal side.

    Fiscal hole... need to fill it... cut spending... raise taxes... ohhh... economic growth has slowed and now have a fiscal hole...

    Rinse and repeat.

    It's made worse by the government's desire to appease Trump. As China has shown, there is no appeasing Trump. The only way you win concessions is to stand up to him. SKS (and the Foreign Office, I suspect) think that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any normal, rational economic actor, and it's not.

    SKS and Reeves need to take a step back.

    I would give them two pieces of advice.

    Firstly, properly fund the criminal justice system, so that visible crimes like shoplifting stop being endemic.

    Secondly, look at what can be reformed to get economic growth moving. And I'd start with the property system in the UK: I would significatly loosen up plannning restrictions, and reform (ideally eliminate) stamp duty and replace it with some kind of property tax (land value or equivalent). This would also have the pleasant effect of getting rid of the absurd abuse of the stamp duty system at the high end where companies own houses, and then the company is sold, therefore avoiding tax.
    You have the envelope system to avoid the company / house ownership dodge
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,182

    Evens in 2026 is very good value. A leadership challenge in 2026 is nailed on after the local/Assembly elections if it doesn't happen before then, and although there is a chance one may be initiated in November 2025 it looks too late now for that to reach its conclusion before the new year, so Starmer wont be replaced until then.

    I would read recent history differently to TSE. Recent history (in 2016) shows that Labour MPs ARE willing to initiate leadership challenges in extreme circumstances. The fact that the challenge of Owen Smith failed was only down to a historical anomaly where the dominant view of Corbyn amongst the membership was completely out of line with the views of MPs. That isn't the case this time, Starmer is seen to be an total electoral liability across all wings of the party.

    How about 2008 to 2010 when lots of plots to oust Gordon Brown came to nothing?
    I thought Cameron's one succeeded ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,426
    Allies of Starmer seem to be trying to flush out Streeting as allies of Major tried to do to Portilllo in 1995. However given there was no sign of a challenge from the Health Secretary before all it may have done is increase the chances of a Streeting leadership challenge after poor local elections in May. Ed Miliband is also a potential candidate from the left again
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,910
    Foxy said:

    Good morning

    What a mess Labour are in with Starmer and Reeves making Truss look good and delivering a slow motion economic disaster and turning in on themselves

    Many would sit back with a smug expression but not me

    This is a deadly serious crisis for the country and we have 3 more years of it

    What makes you think only 3 more years of it?

    It is highly likely that the next government of any colour will struggle as much. The demographic challenges, the run down nature of all public services, the desolation of town centres, the stagnant productivity, the rule of the pluto-gerontocracy over the over-burdened young, the lack of any economic strength outside financial services in London, the military and environmental challenges etc.

    None of these end when Starmer and Reeves go, to be replaced by Farage and Tice. Sure, we will fly a few more flags as the ship sinks ever lower in the water, but there won't be a magic cure. We are 10 years on from Farage's last magic cure of Brexit and look how that has improved the nation.
    Oh, and I didn't mention the forthcoming worldwide recession, higher interest rates, stock market bubble, fall of the US system of government, etc etc

    Its being so cheerful that keeps me going.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,252
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    I still find it difficult to believe that, if there was something in the Epstein files that was so disqualifying for Trump that half the Senate GOP would vote to impeach him or for his Cabinet to invoke 25th Amendment, that it wouldn’t have leaked from Biden’s DOJ to a friendly journalist before the election.
    I tend to agree: there may be embarassing stuff, but certainly not disqualifying stuff.

    Of course, there's almost certainly a lot of very embarassing stuff for certain Democrats too, which may also explain the why the Biden White Hosue was not that keen to open Pandora's Box.
    There’s likely to be loads of politicians and political donors in the files, the guy knew an awful lot of well-connected people.

    There was certainly no push from Democrats to release all of the files until a couple of months ago, when the issue became the source of a split in the Republicans, but if there was something terrible on Trump himself they surely would have found a way to get it out there somehow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,910
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Sorry, how would they find the Implementation was illegal when WASPI have lost every previous court case and the ombudsman spoke about maladministration only over a decade after the law was changed ?

    It also said it was only a recommendation, it could not compel the govt, and there was no obligation on the govt to tell people about changes to the benefit system

    My pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. Am I entitled to a handout
    Isnt a Judicial Review about process, rather than the decision itself?

    In order for the WASPI case to be refused the govrrnment has to show that all relevant information was reviewed when making the decision.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,707
    edited 8:49AM
    It's worth a note that I have unusually not seen any Ref UK Councillors defenestrating in the last 10 days or so.

    There's the usual background of "Oops did I really say that the police now are a bunch of politically indoctrinated British hating scum (amongst other things), immediately before I was elected" stuff, but not defenestrations.

    I'm not sure whether they have all gone away on a team building exercise around a re-enactment of the assault on the Ehrenfels by the Calcutta Light Horse in 1943 (Operation Creek * aka The Goa Incident), or just run head on into the budgetary process.

    Quiet times, for now.

    * "They recruited members of the Calcutta Light Horse 1,400 miles (2,300 km) away in Calcutta, who were on military reserve but were mainly middle-aged bankers, merchants, and solicitors."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,322
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Sorry, how would they find the Implementation was illegal when WASPI have lost every previous court case and the ombudsman spoke about maladministration only over a decade after the law was changed ?

    It also said it was only a recommendation, it could not compel the govt, and there was no obligation on the govt to tell people about changes to the benefit system

    My pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. Am I entitled to a handout
    Yes!

    If you just send a small payment to my firm, we will ensure you get your share of the massive payout.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177
    edited 8:48AM
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Sorry, how would they find the Implementation was illegal when WASPI have lost every previous court case and the ombudsman spoke about maladministration only over a decade after the law was changed ?

    It also said it was only a recommendation, it could not compel the govt, and there was no obligation on the govt to tell people about changes to the benefit system

    My pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. Am I entitled to a handout
    Isnt a Judicial Review about process, rather than the decision itself?

    In order for the WASPI case to be refused the govrrnment has to show that all relevant information was reviewed when making the decision.
    You may well be right about the judicial review. There’s scant info online about it.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,822
    edited 8:47AM
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It'll get no traction. Unless Starmer's in the Epstein file.

    Politics - indeed world news - is going to be dominated as of today by the fall of Trump, the 25th Amendment, the rise of dead duck President J D Vance. The airbrushing from history of the Epstein associates. The anger of MAGA at how they've been used. The quiet clear-out of Republicans who supported Trump, either by not standing again or by the wrath of the voters.

    Strap up for a hell of a ride...

    I don't think today will see the fall of Trump.

    Just saying.
    I still find it difficult to believe that, if there was something in the Epstein files that was so disqualifying for Trump that half the Senate GOP would vote to impeach him or for his Cabinet to invoke 25th Amendment, that it wouldn’t have leaked from Biden’s DOJ to a friendly journalist before the election.
    I tend to agree: there may be embarassing stuff, but certainly not disqualifying stuff.

    Of course, there's almost certainly a lot of very embarassing stuff for certain Democrats too, which may also explain the why the Biden White House was not that keen to open Pandora's Box.
    I don't think anything about this is certain, at all.
    But there is very likely some extremely damaging stuff about very wealthy people in there, who have a great deal of political influence.
    Agreed, and this is why it didn't leak under the Dems imo.

    Trump may be the highest profile, but there will be many politicians and others who are watching their backs at the moment.

    I suspect this might be Trump's best bet to ride it out - find another story in the files worse than his and deflect. He is a master at this and his supporters desperately don't want his involvement to be real.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning

    What a mess Labour are in with Starmer and Reeves making Truss look good and delivering a slow motion economic disaster and turning in on themselves

    Many would sit back with a smug expression but not me

    This is a deadly serious crisis for the country and we have 3 more years of it

    What makes you think only 3 more years of it?

    It is highly likely that the next government of any colour will struggle as much. The demographic challenges, the run down nature of all public services, the desolation of town centres, the stagnant productivity, the rule of the pluto-gerontocracy over the over-burdened young, the lack of any economic strength outside financial services in London, the military and environmental challenges etc.

    None of these end when Starmer and Reeves go, to be replaced by Farage and Tice. Sure, we will fly a few more flags as the ship sinks ever lower in the water, but there won't be a magic cure. We are 10 years on from Farage's last magic cure of Brexit and look how that has improved the nation.
    Oh, and I didn't mention the forthcoming worldwide recession, higher interest rates, stock market bubble

    .
    You’re an investor

    These are all opportunities to make some money.

    As I am 60 and retired I have been gradually switching my investments from equities to mixed assets/income fund/bonds and money market funds.

    Meanwhile the FTSE nudges 10,000 !!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,377
    edited 8:49AM

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
    The ombudsman has found the WASPI women to be victims of maladministration and has recommended compensation. The ombudsman's recommendations have no force in law. The Judicial Review will look at the policy from the same procedural perspective and if it comes to same conclusion as the ombudsman on essentially the same information, it will have force of law. ie the pension age increase implementation was illegal.

    The government has to then remedy that illegality. If it can head off the JR through compensation it doesn't have to accept illegality. Any responsible corporation would settle in those circumstances but the government has to worry about the political optics of handing out cash to WASPI women who aren't a popular group.

    The moral of the story, do things by the book and don't screw up. To be fair to this government, the previous administration did the screwing up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,426

    His 'allies' are about as helpful as those of Cleverly, who voted for Jenrick.

    To be fair they had some logic. Every Tory members poll had Kemi beating both Cleverly and Jenrick but at least one Conservative members poll had Cleverly beating Jenrick
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,544
    Sandpit said:

    Russia launched an “AI-powered humanoid robot” yesterday.

    Her name is Rachel :lol:
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Sorry, how would they find the Implementation was illegal when WASPI have lost every previous court case and the ombudsman spoke about maladministration only over a decade after the law was changed ?

    It also said it was only a recommendation, it could not compel the govt, and there was no obligation on the govt to tell people about changes to the benefit system

    My pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. Am I entitled to a handout
    Yes!

    If you just send a small payment to my firm, we will ensure you get your share of the massive payout.
    Is that after you’ve taken a miserly 45% of any compensation by any chance !
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177
    edited 8:52AM
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
    The ombudsman has found the WASPI women to be victims of maladministration and has recommended compensation. The ombudsman's recommendations have no force in law. The Judicial Review will look at the policy from the same procedural perspective and if it comes to same conclusion as the ombudsman on essentially the same information, it will have force of law. ie the pension age increase implementation was illegal.

    The government has to then remedy that illegality. If it can head off the JR through compensation it doesn't have to accept illegality. Any responsible corporation would settle in those circumstances but the government has to worry about the political optics of handing out cash to WASPI women who aren't a popular group.

    The moral of the story, do things by the book and don't screw up. To be fair to this government, the previous administration did the screwing up
    Any so called maladministration took place under Labour and pre-dates the Cameron govt.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,798
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Sorry, how would they find the Implementation was illegal when WASPI have lost every previous court case and the ombudsman spoke about maladministration only over a decade after the law was changed ?

    It also said it was only a recommendation, it could not compel the govt, and there was no obligation on the govt to tell people about changes to the benefit system

    My pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. Am I entitled to a handout
    Isnt a Judicial Review about process, rather than the decision itself?

    In order for the WASPI case to be refused the govrrnment has to show that all relevant information was reviewed when making the decision.
    A JR can decide that a matter has to be done again because of a failure/illegality/omission etc in the process - this is often because governments have hamstrung themselves with obscure laws which bind them especially since WWII. A JR can also say that a decision is illegal, and so void, in itself because it breaks the law.

    That government can't break its own laws and when it does it will obey the courts is a difference between us and North Korea, Russia, and now of course the USA.

    One of the most interesting questions for a Reform government will be how it approaches this.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,524
    MattW said:

    It's worth a note that I have unusually not seen any Ref UK Councillors defenestrating in the last 10 days or so.

    There's the usual background of "Oops did I really say that the police now are a bunch of politically indoctrinated British hating scum (amongst other things), immediately before I was elected" stuff, but not defenestrations.

    I'm not sure whether they have all gone away on a team building exercise around a re-enactment of the assault on the Ehrenfels by the Calcutta Light Horse in 1943 (Operation Creek * aka The Goa Incident), or just run head on into the budgetary process.

    Quiet times, for now.

    Actually it's going the other way, they have gained four or five defections and independents since last week's by elections https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,910
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning

    What a mess Labour are in with Starmer and Reeves making Truss look good and delivering a slow motion economic disaster and turning in on themselves

    Many would sit back with a smug expression but not me

    This is a deadly serious crisis for the country and we have 3 more years of it

    What makes you think only 3 more years of it?

    It is highly likely that the next government of any colour will struggle as much. The demographic challenges, the run down nature of all public services, the desolation of town centres, the stagnant productivity, the rule of the pluto-gerontocracy over the over-burdened young, the lack of any economic strength outside financial services in London, the military and environmental challenges etc.

    None of these end when Starmer and Reeves go, to be replaced by Farage and Tice. Sure, we will fly a few more flags as the ship sinks ever lower in the water, but there won't be a magic cure. We are 10 years on from Farage's last magic cure of Brexit and look how that has improved the nation.
    Oh, and I didn't mention the forthcoming worldwide recession, higher interest rates, stock market bubble

    .
    You’re an investor

    These are all opportunities to make some money.

    As I am 60 and retired I have been gradually switching my investments from equities to mixed assets/income fund/bonds and money market funds.

    Meanwhile the FTSE nudges 10,000 !!
    Yes, I have shifted my portfolio quite substantially more defensively over the last 6 months.

    Pretty much everything looks overvalued to me at present with little upside potential.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,426
    edited 8:54AM

    Evens in 2026 is very good value. A leadership challenge in 2026 is nailed on after the local/Assembly elections if it doesn't happen before then, and although there is a chance one may be initiated in November 2025 it looks too late now for that to reach its conclusion before the new year, so Starmer wont be replaced until then.

    I would read recent history differently to TSE. Recent history (in 2016) shows that Labour MPs ARE willing to initiate leadership challenges in extreme circumstances. The fact that the challenge of Owen Smith failed was only down to a historical anomaly where the dominant view of Corbyn amongst the membership was completely out of line with the views of MPs. That isn't the case this time, Starmer is seen to be an total electoral liability across all wings of the party.

    Yes say Labour come third in the local elections next year behind Reform and the Conservatives, lose Barnet and Westminster back to the Conservatives and some urban councils to Reform or the Greens. Plus Labour come third in Scotland behind the SNP and Reform and third in Wales behind Plaid and Reform, a worst case scenario basically, then a leadership challenge to Starmer is possible
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,182

    Sandpit said:

    Russia launched an “AI-powered humanoid robot” yesterday.

    Her name is Rachel :lol:
    Rachel was apparently drunk, and fell over:
    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1988299581386616963
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,935
    AnneJGP said:

    I was hoping for more effectiveness from SKS and the Labour government, but it doesn't seem a good idea for them to follow the Conservatives' pattern of changing leader frequently. True, they have a lot of people who'd all like a go, no doubt, but IMHO it would be better to try to find a plan & put it into practice.

    Changing leaders is instability.

    This depends on whether Starmer is the block to finding a plan and putting it into practice.

    If one of the other Cabinet Ministers has a plan, and Starmer isn't listening to them, then replacing Starmer with this mystery Cabinet Minister would be several steps forward.

    Granted this is an unlikely scenario.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,377
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
    The ombudsman has found the WASPI women to be victims of maladministration and has recommended compensation. The ombudsman's recommendations have no force in law. The Judicial Review will look at the policy from the same procedural perspective and if it comes to same conclusion as the ombudsman on essentially the same information, it will have force of law. ie the pension age increase implementation was illegal.

    The government has to then remedy that illegality. If it can head off the JR through compensation it doesn't have to accept illegality. Any responsible corporation would settle in those circumstances but the government has to worry about the political optics of handing out cash to WASPI women who aren't a popular group.

    The moral of the story, do things by the book and don't screw up. To be fair to this government, the previous administration did the screwing up
    Any so called maladministration took place under Labour and pre-dates the Cameron govt.
    It was the implementation of the 2011 Pensions Act, which took place under the Coalition government.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning

    What a mess Labour are in with Starmer and Reeves making Truss look good and delivering a slow motion economic disaster and turning in on themselves

    Many would sit back with a smug expression but not me

    This is a deadly serious crisis for the country and we have 3 more years of it

    What makes you think only 3 more years of it?

    It is highly likely that the next government of any colour will struggle as much. The demographic challenges, the run down nature of all public services, the desolation of town centres, the stagnant productivity, the rule of the pluto-gerontocracy over the over-burdened young, the lack of any economic strength outside financial services in London, the military and environmental challenges etc.

    None of these end when Starmer and Reeves go, to be replaced by Farage and Tice. Sure, we will fly a few more flags as the ship sinks ever lower in the water, but there won't be a magic cure. We are 10 years on from Farage's last magic cure of Brexit and look how that has improved the nation.
    Oh, and I didn't mention the forthcoming worldwide recession, higher interest rates, stock market bubble

    .
    You’re an investor

    These are all opportunities to make some money.

    As I am 60 and retired I have been gradually switching my investments from equities to mixed assets/income fund/bonds and money market funds.

    Meanwhile the FTSE nudges 10,000 !!
    Yes, I have shifted my portfolio quite substantially more defensively over the last 6 months.

    Pretty much everything looks overvalued to me at present with little upside potential.
    I started shifting when I saw Warren Buffett was moving to cash. He’s the GOAT.

    I see little upside in tech for sure.

    I’m quite happy with my dividend portfolio.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,707
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Most unpopular PM in history fans please explain

    No PM would be popular right now, especially so if they were trying to do the right thing and get the country back on track.
    He has tried planning reform but effots appear to have stalled. He has tried welfare reform but ended up with a bill to spend more. What else is there? What is it that you think he is doing to get us 'back on track'?
    FPT.

    Planning hasn't stalled - its getting done by end of the year. Renters rights bill has passed - huge deal for people who rent (ie no one on this forum). Bringing railways back into public ownership. NHS waiting lists falling (not much but a little). Got onshore wind going again.

    But the biggest thing i think is we have a sensible chancellor who is grappling with the difficult fiscal decisions rather than doing unfunded tax cuts and pretending all will be okay.

    They completely messed up welfare reform though.
    I don't hate SKS.

    But I think him and Reeves are caught in this loop, where they are just reacting - in particular on the fiscal side.

    Fiscal hole... need to fill it... cut spending... raise taxes... ohhh... economic growth has slowed and now have a fiscal hole...

    Rinse and repeat.

    It's made worse by the government's desire to appease Trump. As China has shown, there is no appeasing Trump. The only way you win concessions is to stand up to him. SKS (and the Foreign Office, I suspect) think that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any normal, rational economic actor, and it's not.

    SKS and Reeves need to take a step back.

    I would give them two pieces of advice.

    Firstly, properly fund the criminal justice system, so that visible crimes like shoplifting stop being endemic.

    Secondly, look at what can be reformed to get economic growth moving. And I'd start with the property system in the UK: I would significatly loosen up plannning restrictions, and reform (ideally eliminate) stamp duty and replace it with some kind of property tax (land value or equivalent). This would also have the pleasant effect of getting rid of the absurd abuse of the stamp duty system at the high end where companies own houses, and then the company is sold, therefore avoiding tax.
    Company owned houses are subject to the Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwellings (ATED), are they not?

    I think that is about the only regular levy based on capital value in our system, and is approx. 0.5% to 1% of capital value.

    I think there is a system of exemption if they are let as residential lettings, which requires annual registration.

    According to reports, there are fewer than there were.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
    The ombudsman has found the WASPI women to be victims of maladministration and has recommended compensation. The ombudsman's recommendations have no force in law. The Judicial Review will look at the policy from the same procedural perspective and if it comes to same conclusion as the ombudsman on essentially the same information, it will have force of law. ie the pension age increase implementation was illegal.

    The government has to then remedy that illegality. If it can head off the JR through compensation it doesn't have to accept illegality. Any responsible corporation would settle in those circumstances but the government has to worry about the political optics of handing out cash to WASPI women who aren't a popular group.

    The moral of the story, do things by the book and don't screw up. To be fair to this government, the previous administration did the screwing up
    Any so called maladministration took place under Labour and pre-dates the Cameron govt.
    It was the implementation of the 2011 Pensions Act, which took place under the Coalition government.
    Yet the maladministration referred to by the Ombudsman took place between 2006-2008.

    Or is the JR specifically about the change which pulled the rise to 67 which was sped up by the Tories and the Lib Dem’s ?

    There is little on it I have been able to find.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,524

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
    Indeed, as my recollection was that the courts up to the Supreme Court found that the government had taken reasonable steps to inform the ladies of the change in pension age, which they were able to mitigate in any case by not retiring at 60. The ombudsman result seems to fly in the face of that, but I admit I haven't paid much attention to the detail or why the decision was different

    I have always been aware that my pension age has increased to 67, in fact at one point I think 68 was proposed but the government moved the dates back a bit
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,170
    algarkirk said:

    Fascinating illustration this morning of the limits of journalism:

    1) Multiple stories break about a threat to Starmer from others, centrally Streeting.
    2) Senior journalists know exactly who is saying what
    3) Streeting appears on the studio round this morning denying everything, accusing unnamed people around the PM of invention and 100% supporting Starmer for PM until the century after next.
    4) Journalists know perfectly well who has said what and in what way Streeting's people and others have acted
    5) None of this is put to him in the interviews to counter what he claims.

    The media knows, and they know if they are being lied to and they have the information to challenge people; the politicians know. But for the poor tax paying voter, the media offers nameless speculation.

    Yes, and I'd like to see the media, especially the BBC, take a more robust approach to anonymous briefings. Basically, if people aren't willing to put their name to allegations, we're not going to pay it much attention as it's just gossip, Westminster tittle tattle.

    As it is, without the sources, we have no idea how much credence to give to the reports.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,177

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Now Labour have arrived at favouring tge WASPI women, they really have got to the "we'll just spaff public money on any old chancers" stage. Depressing it took less than 18 months. They just cannot say no.

    To be fair, I *hope* that the WASPI review will be 'yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision'.

    But I may just be being overly optimistic.
    Politically it's probably better for this government to let the judicial review run with the likely finding that the pension age increase implementation was illegal, even though it will cost more than to compensate WASPI now.

    Which is what your "yes, we have now looked at the new information - as we are required to do - but no, there is no change to the decision" actually means, and why they might do it.
    Having said that, the whole policy being judged illegal is a can of worms they likely want to head off. No good options for the government here.
    The ombudsman has not found the policy to be illegal. They’ve found that the WASPI women were not sufficiently informed of the change.
    Indeed, as my recollection was that the courts up to the Supreme Court found that the government had taken reasonable steps to inform the ladies of the change in pension age, which they were able to mitigate in any case by not retiring at 60. The ombudsman result seems to fly in the face of that, but I admit I haven't paid much attention to the detail or why the decision was different

    I have always been aware that my pension age has increased to 67, in fact at one point I think 68 was proposed but the government moved the dates back a bit

    It’s 68 from 2044 and is currently under review due to report back by 2029.
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