Why you should be betting on President Marjorie Taylor Greene – politicalbetting.com
Why you should be betting on President Marjorie Taylor Greene – politicalbetting.com
Marjorie Taylor Greene is 66/1 to win the 2028 US Presidential Election.You can also back MTG vs AOC as the Republican & Democratic nominees at 100/1https://t.co/1xKAb9tLmO https://t.co/p38FaWaw8Y
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I agree, but Labour and their innumerate MPs are way more comfortable 'hitting the rich' and reducing tax income than 'hitting the working class' and increasing tax income. Ideology trumps mathematics for those drunk on left wing nonsense.
A general 2p increase on income tax would actually indicate Starmer and Reeves want to fix the public finances, and are serious about doing it. I'd not be thrilled about it, but credible alternatives look worse.
F1: forecast unclear, could see rain throughout or it being dry. Verstappen fans should be doing a rain dance.
Most likely Republican nominees are Vance and Rubio, perhaps de Santis as an outsider.
The Democratic race is much more open, but is unlikely to be AOC, she’s probably eyeing up Chuck Schumer’s Senate seat in NY. Dem Nom race is probably lay-the-favourite (currently Gavin Newsom) until we have a better idea of who are actually the runners. There’s going to be someone relatively unknown, perhaps a governor, who does well in their primaries. Someone like a Gretchen Whitmer perhaps?
There's a possibility (though probably not a big one) that the Republicans need a "Trump? Nothing to do with me" candidate. Someone has to try that lane.
Alternatively, it's not about the game, it's just that she doesn't like the actions of the Administration. Crazy idea, I know.
She represents that class of Republicans who will be trying to break from Trump but with their prospects still tied to the orange anchor.
I fully accept that he might be spitting blood but I just wonder how exactly he has been impacted by recent government tax policy.
The GOP saw what happened with Biden in the last year or so of his term. It seems now to be happening quicker with Trump (or, for those who prefer to think of it that way, the Democrats were far better at covering it up). Promoting Vance would also provide then with something of a reset, which is looking more and more necessary from their POV.
When I first read this, I thought it might be snark, but recalling the Trump on the roof episode, I think it's fairly credible.
Ex WH staffer here. It’s pretty clear to me they are marking the path from “The Residence” to the Oval Office like they do in memory care facilities.
https://x.com/TrueFactsStated/status/1986561380929921256
I think the triple-lock, PIPs for hundreds of thousands of people who've fallen out of the habit of working post Covid, winter fuel allowance, and indulgences, like private cabs, for shuttling around those on adult social care are a terrible use of public funds.
Is the NOTUS an abbreviation or is it a way of saying Not us ?
The US Treasury, responsible for sanctions, has blocked the deal by sanctioning Gunvor.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1986625573251350783
Or the 500/1 on Taylor Swift maybe…
We can't afford the faux-market structures inside the NHS and Education. Waste, duplication, inefficiency and a system that despite all that still doesn't have the capacity to offer market choice. Scrap it all.
We can't afford the cost of cleaning up the mess from cuts. The taxis you mention are what happens when government dumps responsibility on councils but doesn't fund it. Taxis should be an emergency measure but ends up the default because there isn't any money to put alternatives in place.
And I could go on. We need significant reform of the way we do services - cutting the structure and the spending to improve the provision.
I have to ask - what the hell is government spending our money on? They stopped funding so many things - universities, councils, adult social care etc - yet we have record taxes and enormous debt.
Your joking, not another
one90....I may be over-reacting this morning but they do seem like a bunch of free-loading arseholes, hiding behind their famed neutrality and banking privacy standards to cream off a fantastic standard of living by protecting the scum of the earth. Just saying.
Like every entitlement, every piece of public spending, they'll be some rationale behind it all. But there needs to be some tough loving going on somewhere.
"Could be!"
If instead he faces MTG in a primary for the nomination, I am not sure he wins that
https://news.sky.com/story/the-x-effect-how-elon-musk-is-boosting-the-british-right-13464487?fbclid=IwdGRzaAN6h2JjbGNrA3qF3WV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHmIYyi6PUjrKqslVtY89MvvbnTx-jjgmNMZA8qiqCUx3kwEnXfD_o_ngclLJ_aem_KpX2D-IJ60YODMeQvGRNng
The voters of Caerphilly are not wrong. A 34.9% swing against in 15 months says REALLY shit.
Executive experience, impeccable Evangelical background and defended the Constitution when it mattered. I dont like his politics, but he has an integrity that is much needed in American politics.
540/1 at present
(Read it back before you agree…)
It's played for laughs, and is meant as a joke about the madness of the Civil Service. But in certain situations, it's true. The British State right now is largely suffering from the converse of that line- trying to do things cheaply is very inefficient. We have tried to do things cheaply for a generation and now it has caught up with us. It was always going to in the end.
Prison receives written instructions from MoJ etc to confirm if prisoner is being released early - get prisoner from cell, check they are the same person as the system shows from check-in, release.
Prisoner arrives at check-out for release, prison system checked and the date doesn’t align with prisoner detail on system, prisoner has to wait until MoJ confirm in writing that its correct and he is being released earlier.
Prisoner arrives at check-out for release, system checked and date doesn’t align with prisoner detail on system, prisoner has to wait until MoJ confirm, MoJ say no, prisoner is not being released early so a mistake, prisoner goes back to cell.
But how far do we allow past errors to be erased by 'seeing the light'?
Alternate universe Goebbels 1946: “No, I haven’t changed. I was a victim—just like you were—of media lies and stuff you read on social media street fly posters.”
I think the "market" stuff in the NHS and Education is a red herring; it's a classic Statist argument by public sector workers who don't want its users to have choice.
That comment alone marks you out as a social democrat Lib Dem, not an Orange Book one.
It would be a statement of intent if, getting the unpopular stuff out of the way, Reeves axes the triple lock. I think it highly unlikely but if she’s raising taxes on us all she should show us where savings are coming from too.
How can they possibly lose half a dozen people every week?
As far back as 1993, I can remember Camden Council were selling off freeholds to commercial tenants on Hampstead High Street and Haverstock Hill, for half the open market value.
It’s much more basic - where is the money going?
411, named after the number of seats Labour won at the GE, are a Labour pressure group staffed by people with close ties to the party. Why are Sky News using such an organisation, rather than doing the work themselves?
Weaponizing Wedge Issues: Strategies of Populism and Illiberalism in European Election Campaigning on Facebook
Basically, populist parties use controversial issues and a them versus us message.
I have handled many a local authority budget, its remarkable how little you get for what you spend, without hard headed budget controls you end up with bloated costs and poor service.
Airlines are all urging Senators to pass the budget resolution and reopen the government. The House has already passed it but the Senate needs 60 of 100 votes.
It’s three weeks until Thanksgiving, the busiest travel week of the year.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/11/06/what-airports-affected-see-full-list-of-faa-flight-cuts-cancellations-delays-which-will-reduce/87121125007/
Sometimes it is an advantage for people to think you aren't subtle.
You will need at least a 3 bedroom property to support them - let’s assume that’s £350,000 of capital cost post adaption which they will rent at a 8% annual rate so probably another £30k per year at least.
So we are at £450k per year before you even start thinking about social charges on staff (probably another £40k per year), any medical interventions or support, education and life enhancement programmes. You could very easily get to £1m per year. You then add a 20% margin on top for the company that is doing all of this work and you easily get to £1.2m - £25k per week.
Not that the CIA gave a feck.
The AI overview is:
The UK construction PMI has shown a historic contraction, with the latest reading in October 2025 at 44.1, marking the tenth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion/contraction threshold. This marks the longest period of continuous decline since the global financial crisis. The sector has been negatively impacted by sluggish demand, a lack of new tender opportunities, and falling employment, with civil engineering activity falling particularly sharply.
Recent performance and key trends
Continuous contraction: The S&P Global UK Construction PMI has been below 50 for ten straight months as of October 2025, indicating a sustained downturn.
Sharpest decline in over five years: The rate of contraction in October 2025 was the sharpest since May 2020.
Weakening demand and new work: Construction firms report poor market conditions and fewer new projects, with civil engineering activity falling at the fastest pace since May 2020 due to a lack of new work to replace completed projects.
Job losses: Employment in the sector has dropped significantly, with the pace of job shedding accelerating to its fastest since November 2020 in some recent months.
Sector-specific performance: While commercial and residential building both declined, civil engineering activity has been the weakest-performing segment.
Cost pressures: Despite weak demand, some periods have seen rising cost pressures from materials and wages.
Looking ahead
Business expectations: Business confidence has fluctuated, sometimes remaining positive due to hopes for future projects despite short-term challenges.
Contributing factors: Reasons cited for the downturn include economic uncertainty, higher borrowing costs, and a shortage of new projects.
Policy impact: The figures have been influenced by fiscal worries and potential tax changes, such as those rumoured for the November 2025 Budget.
When do we get the apologies from Reeves and Rayner ?
On a recent inspection at Leicester Prison* the governor didn't know how many prisoners he had that day. A pretty core figure I would have thought.
*Leicester Prison is opposite my hospital and particularly chaotic, as it is short term with lots of remand prisoners and newly sentenced who are awaiting moves to longer term prisons.
For things like your car been nicked its now here is your crime number for the insurance and jog on. For what could be a crime of stealing £50-100k item. Its not nicking a mar bars from the corner shop.
And we had reports that alleged train stabby stabby not only allegedly went stabby stabby the previous day but allegedl slashed somebody in the face the previous week and the plod closed the case within hours. Slashed in the face and the police shrug....
I want to slash spending. Cut out reams of bureaucracy and thus spend less overall with more cash than now actually delivered to front line services.
That system had its own problems with institutionalisation and institutional abuse of course.
That it has been going on for a number of years, and this is the first time we've really heard about it, completes the explanation.
1 A social media post by Allison Pearson in 2023 was initially reported to the Metropolitan Police as a potential breach of the Malicious Communications Act in November 2024.
2 The case was then passed to Sussex Police, who marked it as a possible non-crime hate incident (NCHI) and potential malicious communication.
3 Sussex Police passed the complaint further to Essex Police, where Allison Pearson resides.
4 Essex Police made two assessments and then opened an investigation under section 17 of the Public Order Act 1986 related to material "likely or intended to cause racial hatred."
5 Essex Police sent officers to visit Pearson's home on Remembrance Sunday 2024 to discuss the alleged incident, describing it during the visit as a "non-crime hate incident," although the force later contested that characterization.
6 Several police forces including the Metropolitan Police and Sussex Police were involved at different stages before Essex Police took primary responsibility.
7 Essex Police set up a "gold group," usually reserved for major crimes, to handle the investigation of Pearson’s social media post, which escalated the seriousness of the inquiry.
8 Essex Police made an Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) complaint against The Telegraph’s reporting of the incident.
As others have said, it does appear that a lot of money is being spent with poor value achieved, yet prison officers are not particularly well paid, and every month or two there’s a scandal involving a young woman working in a men’s prison with predictable results.
The building themselves are often in poor condition too, they should probably look at selling off a lot of the estate that’s in urban areas (the old prison in Oxford city centre is now a funky hotel) and build new facilities on military land.
Jobs a good 'un.
I pointed out that as the criminal justice system had been cut by his lot so hard that the Justice Secretary had a "pray date", the whole system has stopped.
Scrote does crime. Cops are overwhelmed by crime as so many things were made illegal by the Tories. Cops don't have the bodies to do the basics. Lets assume they actually nick scrote. CPS has to prosecute - lacks time and resources. Knows that many cases don't go to court for ages and ages when witnesses etc have dropped out. Knows that if convicted they're out quickly because prisons are at crush capacity.
So why nick scrote? Police are desperately short of time and resources. Why waste time on stuff the system just drops?
Its Feast or Famine - either we have £100m bat tunnels or we cancel HS2
See the comments here, when I suggested a way that the British Museum could do a cheap solution to catalogue what’s in the basement.
In both cases, our perception of what's happening is at the mercy of what the editors choose to emphasise.
I’ll take these climate conferences seriously when one gets sponsored by Webex and happens remotely.
Isn't it a bit like "What we really need to do is think inside the box"? Which politician has ever gone in to a reform and said "what we really need to do is remove people from front line services and spend more on bureaucracy"?
Nonetheless the pretence that this is a post July 2024 (although as the emergency release programme has been implemented the frequency has increased twofold) phenomenon by Shadow Ministers and PBers demonstrates a remarkably short memory.
I don't recall you outrage posting about this trifling error back in 2019/20. Perhaps you would have been perfectly entitled so to do and the government of the day would have got a grip then.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53221983
The thing is with Timpson he was announced with a lot of fanfare, he has a genuine interest and background in this (Timpsons record of hiring ex-cons is highly commenable) but they let him do what seems like one interview where he was we shouldn't lock up anywhere as many people and that seems to be the last heard from him. With these recent scandals, which are specifically prison related, its always Lammy running defence.
(A very obvious, and probably easiest to fix* example of this is the MoD.)
There simply isn't the money to spend enough in everything.
*Most other stuff involves telling large bits of the electorate "no", which is hard.
The stuff about cuts is tempting but no use. UK tax take and state managed expenditure in mid range for our sort of country.
But in general the slogan should be 'Throw competence at the issue' not 'Throw funding at the issue'.
Of course the unions would hate absolutely everything I’ve just typed so it’s pie in the sky, but I can dream. I think there’s a lot of great people in the public sector but they are trapped by overbearing bureaucracy and static pay and progression structures.
Systems for libraries and museums are really simple databases, you or I could probably scope one in an afternoon. It’s a big form for each item, perhaps links to related items, and a transactional system for ins and outs and moves. All well-indexed and searchable from a web page.
Or at most, passed straight to Essex Police (where she lives) and a couple of cops gone round to offer "words of advice" ie what a traffic cop does if he thinks you are driving like a dick but haven't reached a prosecutable threshold.
This isnt to say that private prisons are better, they might be, might not, the point being there's no real accountability for the failure other than a really bad day for the minister, of a prison he is unlikely to have ever visited, would struggle to find on a map and have no operational understanding of how they work, and the minister will be surrounded by advisors and senior civil servants who are equally unlikely to have any day to day understanding, but will be better briefed.
I was pilloried here a week or so ago for suggesting that non-violent first offenders such as the Epping Hotel convict and Lucy Connolly did not belong in jail. The first should have been deported from the court, the second doing community service.
Of course Prison spaces are needed for violent offenders and for persistent offenders, but there is scope for better noncustodial sentences. Very few convicts come out better than they go in, and many come out as addicts and homeless so no wonder recidivism is so bad.
My old school is now at the heart of a 9 school trust. £2.25m a year in operating costs for the trust on top of the cost of running the schools. Staff like a "Strategic Director of IT" who boasts about negotiating deals with Microsoft. Tesco do not think its more efficient to have store managers negotiate the price of beanz with Heinz and yet that is what the Tories have done to education. And its even worse in the NHS.
Scrap all these structures. Have a local education board run all the schools. Who all need broadly the same stuff which is negotiated centrally at lower cost and a better price.
James Timpson seems like a nice guy in well over his head. As happens with many who move from the private sector into public service, don’t understand how difficult it is to get anything done and the institutional inertia that’s often working actively against the agenda of the minister.
...Crucial information, recorded on different systems by various authorities, was "lost" in handovers between staff, Mr Russell added...
...This is a report that cannot be allowed to gather dust...
...A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: "These were horrendous crimes and we have apologised to the victims for the unacceptable failings in this case.
"We have greatly improved information sharing between prisons and probation officers and all probation staff have received new, mandatory training on when offenders should be recalled."
The second part of the review is due to be published in the autumn...
Half a decade on, what has changed ?
I think both are unacceptable to me personally and would involve a polite FO, but others might find it helpful, if it is a genuine conversation and not an attempt to trip up. Even saying that the discussion is not under caution (is that possible under PACE, to have a conversation not under caution, to prevent future crime?).
At some point I expect we'll be sued for age discrimination over that.