That one in, one out policy that stopped the boats for ten days has gone wrong!
BREAKING - After a fortnight of bad weather in the Channel, more than 600 migrants cross illegally to the UK today. More boats spotted this evening, coming down rivers and into the Channel. Weather deteriorates again tomorrow so the rush is on.
Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.
A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.
A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.
Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.
That BALLOONING deficit in full: I suspect we end up pretty close to 5% again this financial year. Maybe fiscal tightening will mean it drops a bit next year.
The whole sovereign debt crisis and IMF involvement is pure wishcasting.
Labour's majority is huge. I see no reason for them to do anything but wait until 2029 and govern as they see fit. They may not have another chance for a decade or two, as is tradition.
Reform just want people to remain interested in them and nearly 4 years is a long time to wait.
It’s quite an impressive performance from Ed Davey to ensure the Lib Dems remain behind Labour and the Tories.
They have an interesting view on political power. TLDR - they don't like it and will do anything to keep themselves on the side-lines. Nick Clegg committed the LibDem cardinal sin by actually getting into power, not delivering their manifesto, and got blamed for a the Conservative failures. They are very wary now about anywhere other than the leafy shires.
You can see a scenario with Labour on 10% and fifth with FON by the end of the year.
Yeah, maybe but it's Find Out Now. Rasmussen will probably have a majority wanting Trump to be elected for a third term. We know their polling is flawed.
It’s quite an impressive performance from Ed Davey to ensure the Lib Dems remain behind Labour and the Tories.
They have an interesting view on political power. TLDR - they don't like it and will do anything to keep themselves on the side-lines. Nick Clegg committed the LibDem cardinal sin by actually getting into power, not delivering their manifesto, and got blamed for a the Conservative failures. They are very wary now about anywhere other than the leafy shires.
Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”
🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign
Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"
“The government situation has developed not necessarily to Labour’s advantage.”
This government and Starmer are no better than the previous government on integrity and honesty
Apparently Lammy's comments to the media today were confused and contradictory with Sky saying he has a lot more questions to answer on the return of the house on Tuesday
I heard a claim that he refused to come back to the House to answer questions when asked to by the Speaker.
Yes he did apparently saying it would be career ending !!!!!
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
I reached to some PBers a few months asking them not to link to archive.is, there's been a lot of talk in media circles about this site is effectively stealing income from the media, and they were taking action.
You can see a scenario with Labour on 10% and fifth with FON by the end of the year.
Yeah, maybe but it's Find Out Now. Rasmussen will probably have a majority wanting Trump to be elected for a third term. We know their polling is flawed.
They were much closer with the Reform share in the locals than any other pollster. Now a stopped clock and all, but I’m not discounting them entirely.
If I was guessing, we’re somewhere perhaps almost exactly in between FON and YouGov.
I reached to some PBers a few months asking them not to link to archive.is, there's been a lot of talk in media circles about this site is effectively stealing income from the media, and they were taking action.
It's a decades-old complaint, but we still don't have micropayments. Can I pay 50p to read an article a la carte? No, it's subscribe or nothing.
You can see a scenario with Labour on 10% and fifth with FON by the end of the year.
Yeah, maybe but it's Find Out Now. Rasmussen will probably have a majority wanting Trump to be elected for a third term. We know their polling is flawed.
It's that outfit who only polls people queueing up to buy scratchcards, isn't it?
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
I quite refuse to believe the real MTG said that.
Never forget the applause, APPLAUSE! For Tony Blair from all sides. I know some think that the right hates the left and vice versa but I’m sure a lot of what we see is performative.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
I quite refuse to believe the real MTG said that.
She's perhaps showing that she was never mad - just immensely cynical ? And wants to get re-elected.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
I quite refuse to believe the real MTG said that.
She's perhaps showing that she was never mad - just immensely cynical ? And wants to get re-elected.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
You can see a scenario with Labour on 10% and fifth with FON by the end of the year.
Yeah, maybe but it's Find Out Now. Rasmussen will probably have a majority wanting Trump to be elected for a third term. We know their polling is flawed.
But do we? And how do you find out? Until an actual election there is no way of verifying, and when there is an election it only verifies or disconfirms the most recent polling.
There are three issues:
The issue there always is with the fact that any poll only claims to be a snapshot of now, not a prediction of next week or 2029
The particular FON issue of their divergent methodology, which requires explanation, analysis and comment from people far more expert than me (expert comment would be very welcome by the way).
and
The issue I think there is that on current form the GE will be in a different context, with Reform v Not Reform being the top of the bill fight, and Labour, being incumbent in most seats, the most obvious repository of the millions of tactical votes.
'Scotland’s attempt to impose minimum pricing on alcohol will go to the Court of Justice of the European Union after a successful application by manufacturers.
The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) argued in the Court of Session that to impose minimum unit price for alcohol would breach EU law. [...] SWA chief executive David Frost said: “From the outset we said that we believed minimum unit pricing was contrary to European Union law and that it was likely in the end to go to the European Court.”'
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
She occasionally erupts out of the pit with a noble comment. Unfortunately it's rather swamped by the detritus.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
She occasionally erupts out of the pit with a noble comment. Unfortunately it's rather swamped by the detritus.
Even the Trump administration is capable of getting it right, occasionally.
*TRUMP AI CZAR DAVID SACKS SHUTS DOWN OPENAI CFO REQUEST FOR FEDERAL BACKSTOP
The Greens’ poll ratings are not matched by local elections, whereas the Lib Dem’s are doing pretty well.
Most of the current Labour/Green vote will vote for whichever LLG party is best placed to win. Council elections between now and 2028/9 take on extra importance in framing who is "best place to win".
The Greens’ poll ratings are not matched by local elections, whereas the Lib Dem’s are doing pretty well.
True but let’s see a few local elections in student wards or other green friendly wards. True, the Lib Dem’s are doing well, but they are formidable campaigners.
You can see a scenario with Labour on 10% and fifth with FON by the end of the year.
Yeah, maybe but it's Find Out Now. Rasmussen will probably have a majority wanting Trump to be elected for a third term. We know their polling is flawed.
It's that outfit who only polls people queueing up to buy scratchcards, isn't it?
Something like that. I think the way they crunch the raw data assumes that the real Reform vote, if an election were today, would involve the scratchcard class turning out en masse to vote. hence their high numbers for Reform. The question of whether they are onto something is pretty central to how politics is going to turn out. My guess is that if there were a general election tomorrow, their intuition would be right. Reform would wipe the floor with everyone and get in with well over 400 seats. But we will never know. But this tells us little or nothing about 2028/9.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
She said David Cameron could kiss her ass when he went to Washington to try and get more support for Ukraine.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
She said David Cameron could kiss her ass when he went to Washington to try and get more support for Ukraine.
She can fuck right off too.
Yeah, but she is alerting the world to the dangers of the Jewish space lasers.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
She said David Cameron could kiss her ass when he went to Washington to try and get more support for Ukraine.
She can fuck right off too.
Yeah, but she is alerting the world to the dangers of the Jewish space lasers.
I thought Mel Brooks did that? Until ‘they’ got to him…
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
She said David Cameron could kiss her ass when he went to Washington to try and get more support for Ukraine.
She can fuck right off too.
Yeah, but she is alerting the world to the dangers of the Jewish space lasers.
I thought Mel Brooks did that? Until ‘they’ got to him…
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
She said David Cameron could kiss her ass when he went to Washington to try and get more support for Ukraine.
She can fuck right off too.
Yeah, but she is alerting the world to the dangers of the Jewish space lasers.
I thought Mel Brooks did that? Until ‘they’ got to him…
Can't help feel that this government has now reached the stage of being beleaguered. Feels like one bad news story after another. Rayner, Mandelson, now this story about escapes.
Lab are also a bit unlucky as the media didn't care about mistaken releases until it happened to the Epping guy. But that happens when a government is on the ropes.
Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”
🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign
Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"
"The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected" is interesting lawyerspeak for "as bent as a nine bob note".
Those eleven words deserve to become this government's epitaph.
You can also make endless variations on it.
"The government's performance was not entirely up to the standard expected." "The economy's performance was not entirely up to the standard expected." "The tax receipts received were not entirely up to the level expected." "The votes cast for Labour were not entirely up to the numbers expected."
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She openly admits a lot of what she said a couple of years ago was batshit. It is possible she has been on a major transformation after becoming prominent knowing very little. It is also possible she knew the best way to become prominent was to be batshit crazy, but no longer needs to be now she is established. Regardless MTG 2025 seems quite different to MTG 2021.
To step back from the Reformgraph story into reality for a minute, the government has a big problem. It taxes this Bad Thing to stop people using it. Tax revenues drop. Shit, better tax people doing the thing we just encouraged you to do.
Road pricing is inevitable - always has been - as fuel duty rolls back. The furore will be how they replace it. Pence per mile on busy roads is the obvious solution - though the people whose suburban roads become rat runs to avoid motorways will be outraged. Or they go all vehicles all trips, and rural voters go mad pointing out there is little to no public transport and school is 9 miles away.
Like replacing Council Tax, its easier not to.
The tail end Tory Government proved taxes like NI can be lowered without affecting service provision (they burned services to the ground a decade ago anyway). Of course PB Tories contend NI cuts were fully funded by fiscal drag and cutting all infrastructure projects.
Fair to say he doesn’t think too much positive about Rachel.
It's interesting more nuanced take on the whole curve thing. It's not just reduce taxes and get more income. It's remove the complications, the breaks, the allowances. You pay a lower rate, but it is simplified and the disincentives are removed.
IIRC he said some controversial things, which werent really picked up on about less taxes for lower earners doesnt result in any extra revenue, its lowering taxes for people who are high earners that generates the overall improvements. That's a hard sell on the doorstep!
Lol it's the traditional view from the boss class: pay the rich more so they work harder, pay the poor less so they work harder. Laffer is a hack.
The problem with the “Laffer Curve” is that while it’s obviously true at the very low & very high end he has absolutely nothing helpful to say about the middle. Which can easily be complete chaos! A small increase in one tax might bring in more net revenue whilst the same increase in another tax might reduce overall revenue & vice versa.
We all know that 95% income taxes are a bad idea & that going from 0% to 5% raises money. Unfortunately that tells us nothing about what will happen if a UK government raises or lowers taxes today from current levels of taxation.
The word 'curve' gives it a spurious, unmerited air of science and precision.
No, it is Economics.
Economics involves curves of different types.
Economics is a social science, not a true science, and only an idiot thinks it entails precision.
You're having a larger, and his curve is essentially discredited.
The idea that its a simple curve is certainly discredited. The idea, however, that you may increase tax take by lowering tax rates or vice versa is still valid as humans very much do change behaviour when the rules of the game change. You hear it on PB all the time from the high earners complaining about cut-offs and higher rates making it not worth getting a pay rise or promotion or working more hours. You see it at the bottom with reductions in benefits if people work more than 16 hours making the extra income tiny for a lot of effort.
The 'curve' is more like the shape of Mr. Jelly, with near-random wobbliness in the middle.
Drastically simplify the tax system and we'll see a clearer, better-defined and more informative curve, around which future tax policy can be devised.
But no fucker is gonna do this, because too many benefit from the system being unwieldy, over-complex and full of cliff edges, perverse incentives and unintended consequences...
IIRC, a study 10-12 years ago modelled most Western European countries and showed they were well to the left of their Laffer Curve peak, most clustered about a 1:1 slope.Turkey was the only example where a reduction in tax could raise more tax, but that was from total taxation at over 50% of GDP. That was when UK taxation took about 34-35%.
I reached to some PBers a few months asking them not to link to archive.is, there's been a lot of talk in media circles about this site is effectively stealing income from the media, and they were taking action.
It's a decades-old complaint, but we still don't have micropayments. Can I pay 50p to read an article a la carte? No, it's subscribe or nothing.
I think that is a problem that the digital pound is supposed to help solve, because it should have very low transaction costs.
Can't help feel that this government has now reached the stage of being beleaguered. Feels like one bad news story after another. Rayner, Mandelson, now this story about escapes.
Lab are also a bit unlucky as the media didn't care about mistaken releases until it happened to the Epping guy. But that happens when a government is on the ropes.
Tories had years of being "a bit unlucky". Covid unlucky. Ukraine unlucky What goes around....
Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”
🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign
Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"
"The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected" is interesting lawyerspeak for "as bent as a nine bob note".
Those eleven words deserve to become this government's epitaph.
You can also make endless variations on it.
"The government's performance was not entirely up to the standard expected." "The economy's performance was not entirely up to the standard expected." "The tax receipts received were not entirely up to the level expected." "The votes cast for Labour were not entirely up to the numbers expected."
The standard expected was not entirely up to the standard expected.
Can't help feel that this government has now reached the stage of being beleaguered. Feels like one bad news story after another. Rayner, Mandelson, now this story about escapes.
Lab are also a bit unlucky as the media didn't care about mistaken releases until it happened to the Epping guy. But that happens when a government is on the ropes.
Tories had years of being "a bit unlucky". Covid unlucky. Ukraine unlucky What goes around....
So if this goes on until 2029 we can expect the next GE to be a fight between Reform and the LibDems? Or Reform and the Greens?
Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax in upcoming budget
The chancellor’s submission to Office for Budget Responsibility strongly indicates she will be reversing a key manifesto pledge this month
Rachel Reeves has told the budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances.
The chancellor has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that a rise in personal taxation is one of the “major measures” on tax and spending that she is preparing to announce later this month.
The forecaster will assess the impact of the measures, which also include Reeves’s plans to increase economic growth, before informing the Treasury of its assessment on Monday. It is the penultimate round of forecasts before the budget on November 26.
A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.
I’m aware. But did Kier and Lisa ever apologise for stirring up hatred and undermining the local police annd law anmd order and admit their rabidly pro-Israel instincts led them astray?
Can't help feel that this government has now reached the stage of being beleaguered. Feels like one bad news story after another. Rayner, Mandelson, now this story about escapes.
Lab are also a bit unlucky as the media didn't care about mistaken releases until it happened to the Epping guy. But that happens when a government is on the ropes.
Tories had years of being "a bit unlucky". Covid unlucky. Ukraine unlucky What goes around....
So if this goes on until 2029 we can expect the next GE to be a fight between Reform and the LibDems? Or Reform and the Greens?
Can't help feel that this government has now reached the stage of being beleaguered. Feels like one bad news story after another. Rayner, Mandelson, now this story about escapes.
Lab are also a bit unlucky as the media didn't care about mistaken releases until it happened to the Epping guy. But that happens when a government is on the ropes.
Their comms/ strategy just continues to be dire. It might be irrecoverable. If it isn’t, it’s certainly fast approaching that point.
Nobody at the top of the government is likeable enough, deft enough or charismatic enough to sell this government, or its strategy (whatever that is) to the electorate.
Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax in upcoming budget
The chancellor’s submission to Office for Budget Responsibility strongly indicates she will be reversing a key manifesto pledge this month
Rachel Reeves has told the budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances.
The chancellor has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that a rise in personal taxation is one of the “major measures” on tax and spending that she is preparing to announce later this month.
The forecaster will assess the impact of the measures, which also include Reeves’s plans to increase economic growth, before informing the Treasury of its assessment on Monday. It is the penultimate round of forecasts before the budget on November 26.
Marjorie Taylor Greene praises Pelosi and wishes her well in retirement and wishes her own side could do as well to get things done as Nancy did.
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
Bizarre. Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
I think MTG is in some ways and admirable person who has the courage of her convictions. She's even willing to defy Trump occasionally. It's just that her convictions are mostly bat shit crazy.
She told wizened old Emily Maitlis to ‘fuck off’ so she’s not all bad.
She said David Cameron could kiss her ass when he went to Washington to try and get more support for Ukraine.
She can fuck right off too.
Yeah, but she is alerting the world to the dangers of the Jewish space lasers.
I thought Mel Brooks did that? Until ‘they’ got to him…
Mel Brooks will be 100 in nine months. Apparently, he is still entirely with it.
Mel Brooks, Clint Eastwood and Michael Caine are really the only great celebs I can think of who i will be generally saddened by their passing when it happens. Roger Moore was another who has sadly gone but those three are truly legends.
Edit to add, Robert Smith from the Cure too but hopefully he has a long way to go, especially as I intend to see their tour next year.
Comments
You can see a scenario with Labour on 10% and fifth with FON by the end of the year.
Maybe if he's lucky he can get to form the next government after WWIII.
@ddiamond
Seeing some false reports about the man who collapsed in the Oval Office.
It was *not* Novo Nordisk executive Gordon Findlay.
It was a patient who uses Lilly GLP-1 drug, per multiple sources. I hear he's OK now.
I suspect we end up pretty close to 5% again this financial year. Maybe fiscal tightening will mean it drops a bit next year.
The whole sovereign debt crisis and IMF involvement is pure wishcasting.
Labour's majority is huge. I see no reason for them to do anything but wait until 2029 and govern as they see fit. They may not have another chance for a decade or two, as is tradition.
Reform just want people to remain interested in them and nearly 4 years is a long time to wait.
@veryimportant.lawyer
nancy pelosi clearing six figures on polymarket from successfully betting that nancy pelosi will not seek reelection
Ageing is such a shit.
Turkeys rarely vote for Christmas (though when I saw some businessmen supporting Labour I realised it does happen sometimes....)
I'm sorry? Has the original MTG been abducted by aliens and replaced by an alternative human version????
Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986464366145794529
If I was guessing, we’re somewhere perhaps almost exactly in between FON and YouGov.
I adored her in Quartet, which also showed ageing is indeed shit.
His problem is why vote labour when you can have the real thing ?
And wants to get re-elected.
Feeling very chipper this evening 🙂
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/NF-Shorts.jpeg
Next: MTG welcomes the election of Zohran Mamdani as "a breath of fresh air".
https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service-disruptions/stalybridge-20251106/
A screaming lay for next PM. He is hopeless with questions, charmless, interrupting and not answering the question.
I cannot believe that the PLP would back him.
There are three issues:
The issue there always is with the fact that any poll only claims to be a snapshot of now, not a prediction of next week or 2029
The particular FON issue of their divergent methodology, which requires explanation, analysis and comment from people far more expert than me (expert comment would be very welcome by the way).
and
The issue I think there is that on current form the GE will be in a different context, with Reform v Not Reform being the top of the bill fight, and Labour, being incumbent in most seats, the most obvious repository of the millions of tactical votes.
https://www.localgovernmentlawyer.co.uk/healthcare-law/174-healthcare-features/18368-scottish-plan-for-minimum-pricing-for-alcohol-heads-to-european-court
'Scotland’s attempt to impose minimum pricing on alcohol will go to the Court of Justice of the European Union after a successful application by manufacturers.
The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) argued in the Court of Session that to impose minimum unit price for alcohol would breach EU law.
[...]
SWA chief executive David Frost said: “From the outset we said that we believed minimum unit pricing was contrary to European Union law and that it was likely in the end to go to the European Court.”'
*TRUMP AI CZAR DAVID SACKS SHUTS DOWN OPENAI CFO REQUEST FOR FEDERAL BACKSTOP
"THERE WILL BE NO FEDRAL BAILOUT FOR AI. THE U.S. HAS AT LEAST 5 MAJOR FRONTIER MODEL COMPANIES. IF ONE FAILS, OTHERS WILL TAKE ITS PLACE." - DAVID SACKS
https://x.com/stocktalkweekly/status/1986477904302125373
Back the industry, not the individual companies.
(That's also how China dominated in the sectors it chose to focus on.)
She can fuck right off too.
🚨🚨🚨 The jury has reached a verdict. Sean Dunn, aka the DC Sandwich Guy, has been found NOT GUILTY of assault.
Juries don't convict.
https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-sky-news-martha-kelner-signalgate-b2722183.html
"We don’t give a crap about your opinion and your reporting. Why don’t you go back to your country where you have a major migrant problem?”
https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1986503139982193068
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wai7VFzycI
Lab are also a bit unlucky as the media didn't care about mistaken releases until it happened to the Epping guy. But that happens when a government is on the ropes.
You can also make endless variations on it.
"The government's performance was not entirely up to the standard expected."
"The economy's performance was not entirely up to the standard expected."
"The tax receipts received were not entirely up to the level expected."
"The votes cast for Labour were not entirely up to the numbers expected."
https://x.com/AttackerGala/status/1986150169826517434
No doubt plod will ban them from going to Man City.
A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.
The chancellor’s submission to Office for Budget Responsibility strongly indicates she will be reversing a key manifesto pledge this month
Rachel Reeves has told the budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances.
The chancellor has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that a rise in personal taxation is one of the “major measures” on tax and spending that she is preparing to announce later this month.
The forecaster will assess the impact of the measures, which also include Reeves’s plans to increase economic growth, before informing the Treasury of its assessment on Monday. It is the penultimate round of forecasts before the budget on November 26.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-budget-watchdog-raise-income-tax-plan-sr2wd8mp7
Nah - Tories will come powering back.
Nobody at the top of the government is likeable enough, deft enough or charismatic enough to sell this government, or its strategy (whatever that is) to the electorate.
Edit to add, Robert Smith from the Cure too but hopefully he has a long way to go, especially as I intend to see their tour next year.