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I hope Nigel Farage is putting his money where his mouth is – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,772
edited 4:27PM in General
I hope Nigel Farage is putting his money where his mouth is – politicalbetting.com

Nigel Farage has again predicted a General Election in 2027Here's how we bet:2025 – 200/12026 – 8/12027 – 8/12028 – 15/82029 or later – 10/11https://t.co/9nMbwGUTsY https://t.co/HHwUnezgE1

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Comments

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,046
    First and yes I was goal hanging
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,591
    edited 4:28PM
    2nd

    I was not.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,367
    I can well see a route to be honest.

    Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.

    Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,187
    Mortimer said:

    I can well see a route to be honest.

    Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.

    Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.

    The careerists are unlikely to jump to Reform - more to try and get a peerage, I would have thought.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,046
    Its hard to see quite what economic collapse beyond where we are would bring down a government with a three figure majority. The only way the government falls is if there is an almighty scandal with Starmer, and despite a post on X a couple of weeks ago promising news about #currygate its hard to imagine that's happening.

    And unless the polls turn massively in Labours favour, why give up power before you have to?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,090
    Good afternoon

    I agree with @TSE

    I see no prospect of labour mps terminating their seats until the very last minute
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,187
    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,881
    Mortimer said:

    I can well see a route to be honest.

    Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.

    Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.

    Highly unlikely. Starmer has a huge majority, and even if he did lose the support of his MPs, they would surely choose another leader rather than calling a general election and losing all their seats.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    Farage is surely predicting his own doom. If Labour really do crash the economy (and thats the only plausible reason for a GE) then one would hope that the electorate wouldn't turn to a charabang like affair that had to find about 100bn in corrections to their economic policy last week.

  • FossFoss Posts: 2,001
    edited 4:45PM
    turbotubbs said:

    Its hard to see quite what economic collapse beyond where we are would bring down a government with a three figure majority. The only way the government falls is if there is an almighty scandal with Starmer, and despite a post on X a couple of weeks ago promising news about #currygate its hard to imagine that's happening.

    And unless the polls turn massively in Labours favour, why give up power before you have to?

    As a block that makes sense. Individually? Well, David Miliband found himself a nice well paid job and walked away from parliament 2 years before the 2015 general election. On current numbers is reasonable to expect a run of soul-sapping (if you're labour) by-elections starting at the beginning of '27 as those who can get out do get out before others take the jobs they want.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,903
    I agree that an early election is very unlikely. Economic difficulties, combined with Labour's huge majority, make a 2029 general election a near certainty.

    The interesting question then is why Farage feels the need to make such an obviously wrong prediction?

    Generally speaking making such risible, and easily falsifiable, predictions damages one's credibility. So why do it?

    I can think of a couple of reasons. It's a long way to 2029, and Farage has to keep his supporters engaged and motivated. The promise of an early election does that better than the promise of a four-year slog to 2029. Secondly, I think he believes he can create the sense that there *should* be an early election, and that the government is in some way illegitimate for denying the country a chance to boot it out early. The positive impact of this (for him) is that - if successful - it will harden attitudes against the government, and make them less likely to benefit from a swingback if the economy/public services improve by 2029.

    I'm a fan of more frequent elections, but I don't like legally elected governments being cast as illegitimate, so a bit torn on this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,237
    Economic collapse surely makes a 2027 election less likely

    Turkeys

    Christmas

    Etc
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,543
    This is surely just doom porn from Nigel - sap the morale of the populace and spread fear and despondency all around. (Other elements of the Right are trying a similar ploy with their forecasts of civil war.) Presumably Nigel is betting the farm that social media will shore up his predictions even if they don't materialize in what was once termed the 'real world'.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,001
    The Telegraph have put the full BBC memo up.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,426
    rcs1000 said:

    Economic collapse surely makes a 2027 election less likely

    Turkeys

    Christmas

    Etc

    And we are not likely to face economic collapse either.

    "Merely" economic stagnation.

    Which is almost as bad, especially for the Exchequer.

    If only there were some ideas to take the handbrakes off the economy and get some growth going ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,641
    edited 4:59PM
    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    20 years on could we have another Labour MP writing an article saying 'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,915
    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,720
    The only way a GE happens is if there is such pressure, from say IMF, to cut spending to the bone that a huge chunk of Labour MPs split from the PLP in shocked protest and vote down the Government.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 107
    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can well see a route to be honest.

    Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.

    Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.

    Highly unlikely. Starmer has a huge majority, and even if he did lose the support of his MPs, they would surely choose another leader rather than calling a general election and losing all their seats.
    And a question surely the King would ask, are you sure nobody else could command a majority of the House of Commons?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,915
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
    Long way, 2029, isn't it. Four Christmases to come and go and it'll still not have arrived.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,839
    rottenborough said:

    The only way a GE happens is if there is such pressure, from say IMF, to cut spending to the bone that a huge chunk of Labour MPs split from the PLP in shocked protest and vote down the Government.

    Even then - why would they vote to end up on the unemployment line
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,752
    Mortimer said:

    I can well see a route to be honest.

    Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.

    Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.

    It seems to me that the critical aspect of timing decisions is linked with the distinctive way the next election is likely to pan out for Labour, as timing is more or less in their hands.

    Once you assume that the election is really going to be Reform v Not Reform, AND that the outcome is not certain, (Reform might not form the next government) then everything changes.

    If Reform does not form/lead the next government there is only one other candidate - Labour.

    We mostly agree there will be a vast amount of tactical voting. In Scotland and Wales this is complex and may well help the SNP/PC, but in England it's simple: Tories are not a tactical vote as they are Reformlite; LDs are lead opposition in about 80-100 seats - Labour will leave them well alone; almost everywhere else Labour is the tactical vote as they hold the seat and/or are the challenger to Tory/Reform.

    So Labour's current polling is misleading. The Not Reform vote has to go somewhere. Once that Not Reform 60%+ of the vote has worked out that most of them have to vote Labour (in England) to defeat Reform and Reformlite then the picture changes.

    This points to an opportunist election. Labour will go at the best moment and hope they don't replicate T May. This can be any time from early 2028.

  • eekeek Posts: 31,839
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Economic collapse surely makes a 2027 election less likely

    Turkeys

    Christmas

    Etc

    And we are not likely to face economic collapse either.

    "Merely" economic stagnation.

    Which is almost as bad, especially for the Exchequer.

    If only there were some ideas to take the handbrakes off the economy and get some growth going ...
    I’m assuming that is sarcasm but I’m not aware of anything that’s going to fix the current economy
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
    Long way, 2029, isn't it. Four Christmases to come and go and it'll still not have arrived.
    Yes, and Farage has a lot of time-limited support.

    More relevantly and perhaps more tastefully it's a long time to keep a hot air balloon inflated.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,426
    eek said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Economic collapse surely makes a 2027 election less likely

    Turkeys

    Christmas

    Etc

    And we are not likely to face economic collapse either.

    "Merely" economic stagnation.

    Which is almost as bad, especially for the Exchequer.

    If only there were some ideas to take the handbrakes off the economy and get some growth going ...
    I’m assuming that is sarcasm but I’m not aware of anything that’s going to fix the current economy
    No, not sarcasm. There have been many serious suggestions made here but they are rejected by politicians for being unpopular.

    1. Planning reform. Stop people from actively preventing economic growth.

    It is funny how often when I have proposed planning reform people have responded by "how would you feel if a factory was built near you" ... great! We need factories. We need jobs and production and manufacturing. If someone can build a factory and make it productive, that is great.

    2. Tax and benefit reform. Tackle the cliff edges that actively discourage people from working.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,995
    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,961
    Have to say I am wary of a Reform govt due to lack of experience, the economy and so on, but I think I am just being duped into being fearful of the unknown by politicians who have already failed.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,752
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    20 years on could we have another Labour MP writing an article saying 'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    What is true, despite the polling, is that Reform are not a certainty for the next election, and if this is true Labour, despite on the polling maths being in extinction mode, could lead the next government.

    Sherlock Holmes: 'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.'

    It is not possible that Reform are certainties for the next election. Therefore they might lose. The likelihood of anyone other than Labour being the alternative lead party is very small. The improbable Labour are genuine candidates for 2029. They are underpriced. Bet accordingly, DYOR.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,915
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
    Long way, 2029, isn't it. Four Christmases to come and go and it'll still not have arrived.
    Yes, and Farage has a lot of time-limited support.

    More relevantly and perhaps more tastefully it's a long time to keep a hot air balloon inflated.
    Yes, I used ming vase the other day but I think that’s a better image. The challenge is not so much not dropping a vase it's preventing his balloon from popping. There are so many ways that could happen between now and when that election finally hoves into view.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,995
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
    Long way, 2029, isn't it. Four Christmases to come and go and it'll still not have arrived.
    Yes, and Farage has a lot of time-limited support.

    More relevantly and perhaps more tastefully it's a long time to keep a hot air balloon inflated.
    He would also prefer an election before his pal Trump voids the 2028 election in favour of a dictatorship. Even Farage will know that wouldn’t help his chances of victory.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,893
    MattW said:

    2nd

    I was not.

    Claim an assist.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,410
    isam said:

    Have to say I am wary of a Reform govt due to lack of experience, the economy and so on, but I think I am just being duped into being fearful of the unknown by politicians who have already failed.

    I won't be voting Reform; however, every time a Tory (usually Philp!) says what needs to be done about x, y and z, I instantly think "yeah, but you didn't do it when you were in power".

    The Tories' opportunity is fiscal credibility (despite, or even partly because of, the Truss fiasco). So, my advice to them is, don't talk all that much about immigration. They'll obviously have to address it at the election and, this time, be honest, but they need to focus on the mess Labour are making of the public finances.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lammy says he was 'not equipped with all of the detail' to tell MP about the prisoner release

    About as believable as Rachel Reeves claims about not knowing anything about needing a rental license.

    The new lot are as big a liars as the old lot.

    That may be true, but quibbles about this and that should not undermine ministers to the extent that the BBC wish them to.

    (What a ghastly rag the BBC has become.)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,495
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
    Long way, 2029, isn't it. Four Christmases to come and go and it'll still not have arrived.
    Yes, and Farage has a lot of time-limited support.

    More relevantly and perhaps more tastefully it's a long time to keep a hot air balloon inflated.
    Also, Nigel isn't getting any younger. Indeed, by 2029, he could well be combining the wisdom of youth and the energy of old age.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,893
    Foss said:

    The Telegraph have put the full BBC memo up.

    The Telegraph is complaining about bias in someone else's reporting?!

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,548
    Laddie's odds on the year of the next election

    2025 100/1
    2026 8/1
    2027 8/1
    2028 15/8
    2029 or later 10/11

    https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/uk-next-general-election/245440619/main-markets

    Hmph. I'm not touching it.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,001
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a nonsense at 8/1, yes, but it works for Farage in 2 ways. First, there's the off chance he's correct and there IS a financial meltdown in 2027 of such magnitude that it forces a snap election. He looks a right old shrewdie then. "Nigel Farage called it, got to vote for this spookily prescient man," think a large chunk of the electorate including some who weren't previously too impressed with him. Or alternatively (and more likely) it doesn't happen but the thought that it might (since Nige has predicted it in that gruff authoritative way that he has) has kept REFworld keen and alert between now and then, levels of enthusiasm and donations high. Because let's face it, 2029 is a long time to wait for the glorious day which in any case is not guaranteed to be glorious because they might not win.

    I quite like the idea that he's worked out that 2027 might be a good rest stop. I think you're on to something there K.
    Long way, 2029, isn't it. Four Christmases to come and go and it'll still not have arrived.
    Yes, and Farage has a lot of time-limited support.

    More relevantly and perhaps more tastefully it's a long time to keep a hot air balloon inflated.
    Easier when the government of the day is giving you burner fuel.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,378
    viewcode said:

    Laddie's odds on the year of the next election

    2025 100/1
    2026 8/1
    2027 8/1
    2028 15/8
    2029 or later 10/11

    https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/uk-next-general-election/245440619/main-markets

    Hmph. I'm not touching it.

    I don't buy any of the talk about an early election. It'll be either 2028 or 2029.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,965
    edited 5:33PM
    Omnium said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lammy says he was 'not equipped with all of the detail' to tell MP about the prisoner release

    About as believable as Rachel Reeves claims about not knowing anything about needing a rental license.

    The new lot are as big a liars as the old lot.

    That may be true, but quibbles about this and that should not undermine ministers to the extent that the BBC wish them to.

    (What a ghastly rag the BBC has become.)
    Not exactly the Watergate files, is it ?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,426
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Laddie's odds on the year of the next election

    2025 100/1
    2026 8/1
    2027 8/1
    2028 15/8
    2029 or later 10/11

    https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/uk-next-general-election/245440619/main-markets

    Hmph. I'm not touching it.

    I don't buy any of the talk about an early election. It'll be either 2028 or 2029.
    2028 would be early.

    And it won't be that either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,965
    Just as OpenAI goes looking for a government backstop.

    Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers. It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers.
    https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1986031381013520682
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,426
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Foss said:

    The Telegraph have put the full BBC memo up.

    The Telegraph is complaining about bias in someone else's reporting?!

    It takes one to know one afterall.

    But the Telegraph isn't funded by threatening people with imprisonment if they don't pay up, even to consume other media instead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,090
    Sky

    Lisa Nandy found to have breached governance code on public appointments
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,661
    edited 5:38PM
    Nigelb said:

    Just as OpenAI goes looking for a government backstop.

    Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers. It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers.
    https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1986031381013520682

    Deutsche Bank misunderstanding a boom and getting burned? Hasn't this happened before?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,713
    isam said:

    Have to say I am wary of a Reform govt due to lack of experience, the economy and so on, but I think I am just being duped into being fearful of the unknown by politicians who have already failed.

    By the time of the election we will have had a few years of Reform councils to look at to get a view on their competence.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,378
    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,710
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Lisa Nandy found to have breached governance code on public appointments

    I presume this is over the stinky choice of new football regulator.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,661
    After a surprising length of time, the noose tightens on archive.is:

    https://www.heise.de/en/news/Archive-today-FBI-Demands-Data-from-Provider-Tucows-11066346.html
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Madness. 51% of people are entirely mad!
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,001
    Nigelb said:

    Just as OpenAI goes looking for a government backstop.

    Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers. It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers.
    https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1986031381013520682

    Apparently OpenAI now claiming they're not asking for a backstop: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-says-company-is-not-seeking-government-backstop.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,631
    I cannot see an election but have long thought Keir Starmer will resign before one is due, and if she is still Chancellor, I should imagine Rachel Reeves will be moved by the new Prime Minister.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,965
    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just as OpenAI goes looking for a government backstop.

    Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers. It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers.
    https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1986031381013520682

    Deutsche Bank misunderstanding a boom and getting burned? Hasn't this happened before?
    When OpenAI are themselves suggesting that they are TBTF, and need the backing of the US government, it suggests that the financial viability of the enormous US AI investments isn't entirely secure.

    DB are perhaps a little earlier in worrying about their exposure than last time around ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,631
    Letter to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor summoned to US to explain Epstein links
    A congressional committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein says in a letter to Andrew it had identified "financial records containing notations such as 'massage for Andrew' that raise serious questions".
    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-summoned-to-us-to-explain-epstein-links-13464390

    Well done to the King and the Palace for shutting down the Epstein story... or not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,965
    edited 5:50PM
    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just as OpenAI goes looking for a government backstop.

    Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers. It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers.
    https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1986031381013520682

    Apparently OpenAI now claiming they're not asking for a backstop: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-says-company-is-not-seeking-government-backstop.html
    All this might be nothing, but OTOH, MRD...

    Also, reading the piece, that's not exactly a denial.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,090
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Madness. 51% of people are entirely mad!
    The problem is the traditional parties are perceived to have failed and to be honest the perception is not far out
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,915
    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lammy says he was 'not equipped with all of the detail' to tell MP about the prisoner release

    About as believable as Rachel Reeves claims about not knowing anything about needing a rental license.

    The new lot are as big a liars as the old lot.

    That may be true, but quibbles about this and that should not undermine ministers to the extent that the BBC wish them to.

    (What a ghastly rag the BBC has become.)
    Not exactly the Watergate files, is it ?
    Which in turn would not bring Trump down as it did Nixon.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Madness. 51% of people are entirely mad!
    I not entirely convinced about the other 49% aren't either...
    They're just mostly mad.

    I firmly believe that a vote for the Greens is a sort of intellectual abscondment, and one for Reform little better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,965
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Letter to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor summoned to US to explain Epstein links
    A congressional committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein says in a letter to Andrew it had identified "financial records containing notations such as 'massage for Andrew' that raise serious questions".
    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-summoned-to-us-to-explain-epstein-links-13464390

    Well done to the King and the Palace for shutting down the Epstein story... or not.

    I think the intention was to create some distance from the story, rather than to shut it down.
    It's not as though the demand for an investigation is going away in the US.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,652
    Mortimer said:

    I can well see a route to be honest.

    Starmer and Reeves remain tremendously unpopular. Their authority is already at Sunakian levels.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are careerists - as by election defeats pile up, some may defect to Reform, others to LDs.

    A good proportion of the governing party in the commons are dyed in the wool leftists - as cuts to public services pile up, some could defect to Greens and Your Party.

    Add in to the mix a weak economy, several budgets for the Treasury to concoct ways to hurt the taxpayer, and our BALLOONING deficit that could result in sovereign debt uneasiness - and perhaps even the need for IMF involvement - and I could see Starmer having to call an election out of inability to pass a budget in 2027.

    Lucy Powell is on manoeuvres- she has said that they need to keep the manifesto commitments
  • eekeek Posts: 31,839
    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,915
    edited 5:55PM
    isam said:

    Have to say I am wary of a Reform govt due to lack of experience, the economy and so on, but I think I am just being duped into being fearful of the unknown by politicians who have already failed.

    You're right to be wary. I'm reminded of how (from the opposite berth) I felt about the prospect of a Corbyn government. I voted for it, excitement beating in my breast, but alongside this was a fair amount of fear and trepidation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,965
    edited 5:56PM
    The federal invasion of Chicago is having a very bad day in court.

    After reviewing extensive testimony and video evidence, Judge Ellis says the use of force during Operation Midway Blitz by DHS officers "shocks the conscience."
    https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1986487565009232199

    Ellis, still ruling, makes a reference to awarding "complete relief" to the plaintiffs. She said it will "necessarily incidentally benefit other protesters, journalists and religious figures."
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Madness. 51% of people are entirely mad!
    The problem is the traditional parties are perceived to have failed and to be honest the perception is not far out
    'I don't like what's for dinner and I shall jump off a cliff instead' hasn't proven to be a wise way of thinking.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,410
    Why is there not a police cordon around Villa Park so that only ticket holders can get near the ground?

    https://x.com/YoungBobTPUK/status/1986483727807950914
  • isamisam Posts: 42,961
    edited 6:01PM
    Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”

    🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign

    Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986487637515833831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,105
    eek said:

    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
    If enough of those 30 seats had gone LibDem they would have been the official opposition.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,710
    tlg86 said:

    Why is there not a police cordon around Villa Park so that only ticket holders can get near the ground?

    https://x.com/YoungBobTPUK/status/1986483727807950914

    Is that the "interesting" lawyer that rocked up to represent the two lads who were being accused of kicking the shit out of the plod at Manchester airport?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,710
    edited 6:00PM
    isam said:

    Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules

    🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign

    Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986487637515833831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    But I presume she keeps her job as does the donor who got picked?

    All that talk of whiter than whiter stuff didn't last very long on contact with reality.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,187
    rcs1000 said:

    Economic collapse surely makes a 2027 election less likely

    Turkeys

    Christmas

    Etc

    Indeed - the only way it could happen is that Reform collapses in the polls, and suddenly the Labour Party achieves political success and economic growth.

    Also the Venus De Milo grows arms and starts break dancing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,353
    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    lol. I’m not sure I can say much else.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,187
    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just as OpenAI goes looking for a government backstop.

    Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers. It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers.
    https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1986031381013520682

    Apparently OpenAI now claiming they're not asking for a backstop: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-says-company-is-not-seeking-government-backstop.html
    All this might be nothing, but OTOH, MRD...

    Also, reading the piece, that's not exactly a denial.
    Douche Bank - the organisation that came up with the brilliant plan to lend Trump billions. Then, when he couldn't pay it back - give him a bigger loan.

    If anyone is listening a DB - I have a sure fire 278% return per quarter. It involves quantum NFTs in the cloud, a new crypto currency, a novel space launch system *and* AI... all leveraged against a bridge over the Thames.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    logical_song said:

    eek said:

    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
    If enough of those 30 seats had gone LibDem they would have been the official opposition.
    LDs 5th as the FindOutNow poll suggests has a great deal of risk for them. They've outperformed recently in terms of seats, but they really could be annihilated by exactly the same dynamic. If the Tories and Labour find themselves totally outflanked by Reform and the Greens then the space in the middle gets very small. Of course it could be the case that they push the Tories and Labour aside, but nobody at all can really believe that with their current incarnation.

    I wish BF had a leader exit market - Davey is nailed on in my view.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,652
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Lisa Nandy found to have breached governance code on public appointments

    I presume this is over the stinky choice of new football regulator.
    But apparently Keir Starmer has decided that she is a person of integrity who has acted in good faith so that it is all ok
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,426
    isam said:

    Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”

    🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign

    Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986487637515833831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected" is interesting lawyerspeak for "as bent as a nine bob note".
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,600
    numbertwelve said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    lol. I’m not sure I can say much else.
    Labour will be celebrating that they only lost 1 point during Reeves tragic budget trailer !
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 107
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”

    🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign

    Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986487637515833831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected" is interesting lawyerspeak for "as bent as a nine bob note".
    I wonder if there are many Labour supporters who find joy in this shower. My over half who, though now an age onset conservative, was a big supporter of Blair and his government, and wont have a word said against him. Even has a signed copy of the National Minimum Wage framed somewhere.
    But, its hard to find anything positive to like about the current government. There might be mild solace for some that at least its not the Tories in charge.

    But there has to be more? Hat tip to the person who said on here (first place I heard it suggested) that the next GE could be a fight out between Reform and the Greens.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,961
    This would have gone down as a non crime and cited as evidence the streets are safer than ever before

    Huntingdon train knife rampage suspect 'slashed man in the face' a MONTH ago - as police re-open investigation they closed by text after just 48 hours

    https://x.com/dailymail/status/1986394416563556503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,344
    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    It’s quite an impressive performance from Ed Davey to ensure the Lib Dems remain behind Labour and the Tories.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,858
    viewcode said:

    Laddie's odds on the year of the next election

    2025 100/1
    2026 8/1
    2027 8/1
    2028 15/8
    2029 or later 10/11

    https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/uk-next-general-election/245440619/main-markets

    Hmph. I'm not touching it.

    i can't see them going before 2029, and Labour have enough of a majority to withstand a lot of defections.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,090
    numbertwelve said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”

    🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign

    Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986487637515833831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    “The government situation has developed not necessarily to Labour’s advantage.”
    This government and Starmer are no better than the previous government on integrity and honesty

    Apparently Lammy's comments to the media today were confused and contradictory with Sky saying he has a lot more questions to answer on the return of the house on Tuesday
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,661
    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    It’s quite an impressive performance from Ed Davey to ensure the Lib Dems remain behind Labour and the Tories.
    They like to pretend people believe in the LibDem philisophy (such as it is), but their status as none-of-the-above has been exposed.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,548
    Omnium said:

    logical_song said:

    eek said:

    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
    If enough of those 30 seats had gone LibDem they would have been the official opposition.
    LDs 5th as the FindOutNow poll suggests has a great deal of risk for them. They've outperformed recently in terms of seats, but they really could be annihilated by exactly the same dynamic. If the Tories and Labour find themselves totally outflanked by Reform and the Greens then the space in the middle gets very small. Of course it could be the case that they push the Tories and Labour aside, but nobody at all can really believe that with their current incarnation.

    I wish BF had a leader exit market - Davey is nailed on in my view.
    I don't know if Davey will leave or not, but this is a historical missed opportunity for them. The Green Insurgency is taking everybody by surprise, and I think they're eating the Libs lunch as well as Lab. So yes you are correct: this is a risk for them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,858
    In Australia they have so much solar energy now that they are developing a problem of excess, and proposing to give everyone 3 free hours of electricity per day:

    https://electrek.co/2025/11/04/australia-has-so-much-solar-that-its-offering-everyone-free-electricity-3h-day/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,410
    carnforth said:

    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    It’s quite an impressive performance from Ed Davey to ensure the Lib Dems remain behind Labour and the Tories.
    They like to pretend people believe in the LibDem philisophy (such as it is), but their status as none-of-the-above has been exposed.
    It's more that they're a surrogate of Labour. Their support is holding up in the areas that they are strong, so it doesn't appear to be hurting them at the moment. But that could change.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,102
    Omnium said:

    Farage is surely predicting his own doom. If Labour really do crash the economy (and thats the only plausible reason for a GE) then one would hope that the electorate wouldn't turn to a charabang like affair that had to find about 100bn in corrections to their economic policy last week.

    Let's not abuse the facts. Reform's last manifesto was for an economy before Starmer and Reeves had their grubby mitts all over it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,858
    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    It’s quite an impressive performance from Ed Davey to ensure the Lib Dems remain behind Labour and the Tories.
    did no-one read the thread header earlier? the LDS are going to benefit a lot from tactical voting.

    I am pretty chilled about this polling as an LD.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,720
    edited 6:24PM
    David Frost
    @DavidGHFrost

    Some personal (and political) news:

    I am delighted to have been appointed as the new DG of the
    @iealondon Institute of Economic Affairs, with effect from January next year.

    https://x.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1986468090788425893
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 107
    edited 6:24PM
    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    logical_song said:

    eek said:

    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
    If enough of those 30 seats had gone LibDem they would have been the official opposition.
    LDs 5th as the FindOutNow poll suggests has a great deal of risk for them. They've outperformed recently in terms of seats, but they really could be annihilated by exactly the same dynamic. If the Tories and Labour find themselves totally outflanked by Reform and the Greens then the space in the middle gets very small. Of course it could be the case that they push the Tories and Labour aside, but nobody at all can really believe that with their current incarnation.

    I wish BF had a leader exit market - Davey is nailed on in my view.
    I don't know if Davey will leave or not, but this is a historical missed opportunity for them. The Green Insurgency is taking everybody by surprise, and I think they're eating the Libs lunch as well as Lab. So yes you are correct: this is a risk for them.
    And the Greens are just pushing stuff their supporters love in the same way that Reform are. The absolute two cheeks of the same backside promising the Earth if only we did XYZ. If only there was no immigrants/if only we taxed all the rich.

    What on Earth have we come to that neither of the two top polling parties offer anything remotely governable?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Omnium said:

    Farage is surely predicting his own doom. If Labour really do crash the economy (and thats the only plausible reason for a GE) then one would hope that the electorate wouldn't turn to a charabang like affair that had to find about 100bn in corrections to their economic policy last week.

    Let's not abuse the facts. Reform's last manifesto was for an economy before Starmer and Reeves had their grubby mitts all over it.
    Undoubtedly true, but their economic plans were nonsense. Farage pretty much said so yesterday.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 107
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    numbertwelve said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir having to tell off another underling for not following the rules. He used to say if his staff messed up, the buck stopped with him, and that “the fish rots from the head”

    🚨 NEW: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy broke the Governance Code by not declaring that her pick for Independent Football Regulator Chair had donated to her leadership campaign

    Starmer: "The process followed was not entirely up to the standard expected"

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986487637515833831?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    “The government situation has developed not necessarily to Labour’s advantage.”
    This government and Starmer are no better than the previous government on integrity and honesty

    Apparently Lammy's comments to the media today were confused and contradictory with Sky saying he has a lot more questions to answer on the return of the house on Tuesday
    I heard a claim that he refused to come back to the House to answer questions when asked to by the Speaker.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,840
    The Mad King had a presser with reps from big Pharma. One of them fainted

    https://bsky.app/profile/mattortega.com/post/3m4y6jfzjkk2m
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,478
    Omnium said:

    logical_song said:

    eek said:

    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
    If enough of those 30 seats had gone LibDem they would have been the official opposition.
    LDs 5th as the FindOutNow poll suggests has a great deal of risk for them. They've outperformed recently in terms of seats, but they really could be annihilated by exactly the same dynamic. If the Tories and Labour find themselves totally outflanked by Reform and the Greens then the space in the middle gets very small. Of course it could be the case that they push the Tories and Labour aside, but nobody at all can really believe that with their current incarnation.

    I wish BF had a leader exit market - Davey is nailed on in my view.
    LDs are first in about 80-100 seats and are really dug in. Elsewhere, they are nowhere. Hence their low national share.
    The LD strategy has been almost entirely local, with very little national visibility, unlike Reform and the Greens.
    To break through nationally they need national visibility.
    To do that they need simple, cut through, courageous policies, coupled with savvy and intense social media.
    I don't think that's going to happen.
    The most likely scenario is a minority Labour government for the reasons @algarkirk has outlined,
    with confidence and supply from Lib Dems with 80 -100 seats who will extract a high price from Labour, and choose which specific Labour policies they will support . No coalition!
    And Davey is safe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,720
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    incredible photo that's definitely worth at least 1,000 words from Andrew Harnik of Getty

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1986496333461475338
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,523
    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Jesus Christ :astonished:
  • isamisam Posts: 42,961
    That one in, one out policy that stopped the boats for ten days has gone wrong!

    BREAKING - After a fortnight of bad weather in the Channel, more than 600 migrants cross illegally to the UK today. More boats spotted this evening, coming down rivers and into the Channel. Weather deteriorates again tomorrow so the rush is on.

    https://x.com/markwhitetv/status/1986486159048851789?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,161
    Barnesian said:

    Omnium said:

    logical_song said:

    eek said:

    Fairliered said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Why would turkeys vote to have Christmas early?

    The only possible route would be a Reform implosion that somehow boosts the Labour party into some kind of lead.

    The last turkey to vote for an early Christmas was Sunak, and a fat lot of good it did him.
    Given the problems that Labour had to deal with between July and November last year - I think his quick election won the Tories 20-30 seats.

    And imagine the state of the Tory party if they had 20-30 less seats
    If enough of those 30 seats had gone LibDem they would have been the official opposition.
    LDs 5th as the FindOutNow poll suggests has a great deal of risk for them. They've outperformed recently in terms of seats, but they really could be annihilated by exactly the same dynamic. If the Tories and Labour find themselves totally outflanked by Reform and the Greens then the space in the middle gets very small. Of course it could be the case that they push the Tories and Labour aside, but nobody at all can really believe that with their current incarnation.

    I wish BF had a leader exit market - Davey is nailed on in my view.
    LDs are first in about 80-100 seats and are really dug in. Elsewhere, they are nowhere. Hence their low national share.
    The LD strategy has been almost entirely local, with very little national visibility, unlike Reform and the Greens.
    To break through nationally they need national visibility.
    To do that they need simple, cut through, courageous policies, coupled with savvy and intense social media.
    I don't think that's going to happen.
    The most likely scenario is a minority Labour government for the reasons @algarkirk has outlined,
    with confidence and supply from Lib Dems with 80 -100 seats who will extract a high price from Labour, and choose which specific Labour policies they will support . No coalition!
    And Davey is safe.
    Let's see.
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