"We can confirm that the released prisoner is 24-year-old Brahim Kaddour-Cherif who is an Algerian national. He is also known to use other variations of his name, including Ibrahim.
"He is believed to have links to Tower Hamlets and is also known to frequent the Westminster area.
"We are aware of reporting that Cherif is a registered sex offender and can confirm that is accurate.
A prisoner called Billy Smith was also released in error.
Typical *Conservative* government. It's a continuation of Tory policies.
Since the Labour government is just implementing Conservative policies and is completely unable to change…
Shouldn’t Sir Keir just apologise, resign and give Kemi the job?
Perhaps things are so bad, we need a unity government. Kemi could join Cabinet in charge of the Home Office since that's the one she thinks needs immediate attention. She could ask Jenrick to join her as her deputy. Would allow her another year safe from those letters.
"We can confirm that the released prisoner is 24-year-old Brahim Kaddour-Cherif who is an Algerian national. He is also known to use other variations of his name, including Ibrahim.
"He is believed to have links to Tower Hamlets and is also known to frequent the Westminster area.
"We are aware of reporting that Cherif is a registered sex offender and can confirm that is accurate.
A prisoner called Billy Smith was also released in error.
Typical *Conservative* government. It's a continuation of Tory policies.
Since the Labour government is just implementing Conservative policies and is completely unable to change…
Shouldn’t Sir Keir just apologise, resign and give Kemi the job?
Perhaps things are so bad, we need a unity government. Kemi could join Cabinet in charge of the Home Office since that's the one she thinks needs immediate attention. She could ask Jenrick to join her as her deputy. Would allow her another year safe from those letters.
The BBC understands Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, the Algerian released in error a week ago, is:
Not an asylum seeker Entered the UK legally on a visit visa in 2019 Overstayed their visa, with an automatic probable over-stayer case created on 6 February 2020 Is in the initial stages of the deportation process
How many of them was released in this incident?
I wonder how many of these "accidental" prisoner releases are actually because of someone (I don't know who, of course) wanting to make Labour look incompetent
FIFA have invented a peace prize so they can give it to the Mad King
Infantino makes Sepp Blatter look like a great leader of FIFA. He’s so far up Trump’s arse he comes out of his mouth and back round so he can get up it again.
His vanity and Trump’s are a marriage made in hell.
FIFA funded an entire film, complete with Hollywood A listers, to praise themselves....
"In the United States, the film grossed $918 in its opening weekend, was lambasted by critics as propaganda, and is considered to be one of the worst films ever made."
FIFA have invented a peace prize so they can give it to the Mad King
Infantino makes Sepp Blatter look like a great leader of FIFA. He’s so far up Trump’s arse he comes out of his mouth and back round so he can get up it again.
His vanity and Trump’s are a marriage made in hell.
A large proportion of the power in this world seems to be wielded by self-centred corrupt men.
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
I'd like to propose ...
Not a bad shout at all, and not an Indy supporter (though his co-star and onscreen wife is). Sadly unlikely to want to join the political fray, but I like your thinking.
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
It depends which part of Burnley is having an election. These aren't particularly good areas for the party.
Algerian man mistakenly released from prison last week named as manhunt under way
Your joking, not another one....
An interesting development on R4 PM. Evans and Mason in a three way conversation with Daniel Sandford with Evans and Davis laying down a thick layer of direct personal blame on Lammy as Justice Secretary. And then Sandford who is pretty much the closest the BBC have to an expert of Home Affairs called them both out (first 6 or 7 minutes in to PM) asking why this guy has been allowed to remain in the country since 2019 despite overstaying his visa and being known to the police as among other things, a flasher. Sandford called out every Home Secretary from Patel to Mahmood.
Sandford was perfectly reasonable in his analysis.
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
Algerian man mistakenly released from prison last week named as manhunt under way
Your joking, not another one....
An interesting development on R4 PM. Evans and Mason in a three way conversation with Daniel Sandford with Evans and Davis laying down a thick layer of direct personal blame on Lammy as Justice Secretary. And then Sandford who is pretty much the closest the BBC have to an expert of Home Affairs called them both out (first 6 or 7 minutes in to PM) asking why this guy has been allowed to remain in the country since 2019 despite overstaying his visa and being known to the police as among other things, a flasher. Sandford called out every Home Secretary from Patel to Mahmood.
Sandford was perfectly reasonable in his analysis.
There are probably large numbers of people who've overstayed their visas and not much anyone can do about it.
Algerian man mistakenly released from prison last week named as manhunt under way
Your joking, not another one....
An interesting development on R4 PM. Evans and Mason in a three way conversation with Daniel Sandford with Evans and Davis laying down a thick layer of direct personal blame on Lammy as Justice Secretary. And then Sandford who is pretty much the closest the BBC have to an expert of Home Affairs called them both out (first 6 or 7 minutes in to PM) asking why this guy has been allowed to remain in the country since 2019 despite overstaying his visa and being known to the police as among other things, a flasher. Sandford called out every Home Secretary from Patel to Mahmood.
Sandford was perfectly reasonable in his analysis.
There are probably large numbers of people who've overstayed their visas and not much anyone can do about it.
Why? The f***** was in jail until Lammy let him out last Wednesday.
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
Good to see " The Gaza Loons" winning both seats and LAB vote collapsing
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
It depends which part of Burnley is having an election. These aren't particularly good areas for the party.
There's a very good analysis of the two wards here by Andrew Teale. His previews are required reading for election geeks.
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
Could we end up rejoining the EU not for the economics but for their hardline immigration policy?
We're Better Together says PM Farage as he calls a Referendum for June 2031.
It's quite funny because I'd expect many Rejoiners, not that they'd admit it, to flip to Stay Outers because VALUES.
Everything hinges on our own Government. If we continue to endure shitty Governnents that will sell us out for a whiff of money and power, and an administrative class working against the population, we lose, in or out.
If I had to choose between EU membership with a patriotic Government, and an independent Britain with a disastrous one, I'd choose the former every time. But if we can have our freedom and a decent Government, why go back in? We have every resource and capability we need.
Could have been a Pekinese. Makes you read the story. Evidently worked very well. Hits innit. However dreadful the story, which it is.
We locked poor Lucy away for some bad words on X. How about these idiots see the inside of a prison for manslaughter by means of owning a vicious dog while having a baby? Awful loss for them, but if Lucy Connolly can be made an example of, what about these?
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
Could we end up rejoining the EU not for the economics but for their hardline immigration policy?
We're Better Together says PM Farage as he calls a Referendum for June 2031.
It's quite funny because I'd expect many Rejoiners, not that they'd admit it, to flip to Stay Outers because VALUES.
Many years ago I car shared with a young Labour voter from a family of ‘we’ve always voted labourites’. I laid out a series of policies which she thought were good or excellent. I then explained they were conservative policies. She changed her mind…
Some tribal folk or folk with a visceral hatred of someone will be like this to the end.
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
Could we end up rejoining the EU not for the economics but for their hardline immigration policy?
We're Better Together says PM Farage as he calls a Referendum for June 2031.
It's quite funny because I'd expect many Rejoiners, not that they'd admit it, to flip to Stay Outers because VALUES.
Everything hinges on our own Government. If we continue to endure shitty Governnents that will sell us out for a whiff of money and power, and an administrative class working against the population, we lose, in or out.
If I had to choose between EU membership with a patriotic Government, and an independent Britain with a disastrous one, I'd choose the former every time. But if we can have our freedom and a decent Government, why go back in? We have every resource and capability we need.
I know, but it would almost be worth it for the trolling opportunities.
"Go home or we will deport you, Germany tells Syrians Friedrich Merz insists war-torn country is safe despite opposition from his own foreign minister" (£)
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
The BBC understands Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, the Algerian released in error a week ago, is:
Not an asylum seeker Entered the UK legally on a visit visa in 2019 Overstayed their visa, with an automatic probable over-stayer case created on 6 February 2020 Is in the initial stages of the deportation process
How many of them was released in this incident?
I wonder how many of these "accidental" prisoner releases are actually because of someone (I don't know who, of course) wanting to make Labour look incompetent
That's a very long list of potential "someones"...
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
Good to see " The Gaza Loons" winning both seats and LAB vote collapsing
Both these seats were held by Labour even in 2021 when the Boris bounce was at its peak and Burnley had a Conservative MP so you wouldn't expect Reform to do that well in them, so mainly leftwing protest vote to Independent
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
We won't go back to Miliband. Yes, he's popular within the party. But that's not enough. He's not seen as a winner, for obvious reasons. Anyway, I doubt he'd stand.
The BBC understands Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, the Algerian released in error a week ago, is:
Not an asylum seeker Entered the UK legally on a visit visa in 2019 Overstayed their visa, with an automatic probable over-stayer case created on 6 February 2020 Is in the initial stages of the deportation process
How many of them was released in this incident?
I wonder how many of these "accidental" prisoner releases are actually because of someone (I don't know who, of course) wanting to make Labour look incompetent
That's a very long list of potential "someones"...
Although, averaging pretty much what they always do. Indeed, pretty much what was good enough for their best seat result in over 100 years. The weird effects of FPTP.
I would have thought that, with the Tories and Labour both polling no higher than 20%, that the Lib Dems might aspire to poll somewhat better.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
We won't go back to Miliband. Yes, he's popular within the party. But that's not enough. He's not seen as a winner, for obvious reasons. Anyway, I doubt he'd stand.
I agree but he remains ambitious and as long as Burnham is not back in Parliament and Rayner had to resign after a scandal the left of Labour will see him as their standard bearer.
Indeed the 30% Miliband got in 2015 could now well be enough to win with 4 parties now on 10-20% and 1 on 20-30%
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
We won't go back to Miliband. Yes, he's popular within the party. But that's not enough. He's not seen as a winner, for obvious reasons. Anyway, I doubt he'd stand.
SKS is not seen as a winner anymore. In fact he is about to deliver Labour's worst LE results in a century
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
I tend to agree, and I suspect that voter suppression can equally act as a driver of turnout: "they're trying to stop you from voting!" is a pretty great rallying cry.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
I tend to agree, and I suspect that voter suppression can equally act as a driver of turnout: "they're trying to stop you from voting!" is a pretty great rallying cry.
That explains Donald Trump telling his own supporters not to vote.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
We won't go back to Miliband. Yes, he's popular within the party. But that's not enough. He's not seen as a winner, for obvious reasons. Anyway, I doubt he'd stand.
SKS is not seen as a winner anymore. In fact he is about to deliver Labour's worst LE results in a century
Wake up pal
I can only imagine a Milliband regime being like a sort of latter day Paris commune with the army closing in and they start shooting people.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
We won't go back to Miliband. Yes, he's popular within the party. But that's not enough. He's not seen as a winner, for obvious reasons. Anyway, I doubt he'd stand.
"They" rather than "we", but agree. Forward, not back. In 1988, John Major was Chief Secretary.
The place to look for Starmer's sucessor is the generation below- whoever does a decent job in a mid-ranking Cabinet job now. Think Mahmood/Powell/Philipson/Jones etc.
EdM is past it, Streeting probably had the misfortune to spend his prime years in impotent opposition and so on.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
I pray Malmesbury is correct in readying his scanning electron microscope for the world's largest molecular string section next year.
Trump: "For generations Miami has been a haven for those fleeing communist tyranny in South Africa. I mean, if you take a look at what's going on in parts of South Africa. Look at South Africa, what's going on. Look at South America, what's going on. You know, we have a G20 meeting in South Africa."
Wait was he trying to talk about South America in this segment and only managed to get it right once out of five mentions?
Bloomberg: New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch is willing to remain in her post under Zohran Mamdani as long as the progressive mayor-elect allows her to keep pursuing her agenda, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
My main interest here is "will Trump spell the end of democracy in America"
My conclusion is he's too late. 12 months isn't enough to overcome his increasing unpopularity and the limitations of his authority.
Trump-lite will then win the Republicans nomination in 2026 and lose badly.
Algerian man mistakenly released from prison last week named as manhunt under way
Your joking, not another one....
An interesting development on R4 PM. Evans and Mason in a three way conversation with Daniel Sandford with Evans and Davis laying down a thick layer of direct personal blame on Lammy as Justice Secretary. And then Sandford who is pretty much the closest the BBC have to an expert of Home Affairs called them both out (first 6 or 7 minutes in to PM) asking why this guy has been allowed to remain in the country since 2019 despite overstaying his visa and being known to the police as among other things, a flasher. Sandford called out every Home Secretary from Patel to Mahmood.
Sandford was perfectly reasonable in his analysis.
There are probably large numbers of people who've overstayed their visas and not much anyone can do about it.
In terms of unwanted guests, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a bigger practical issue than boat people. Just less visible, so less politically salient.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
Not impossible the Democrats could win the Senate too next year, they currently lead in polls in Maine, Ohio and North Carolina, all of which are GOP held now and if Ken Paxton beats more moderate incumbent John Cornyn in the GOP primaries polls show the Democrats could win Texas as well.
The Democrats need 4 net gains for majority control of the Senate
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 26m So Trump’s gameplan is just to continue lying that inflation doesn’t exist, grocery prices are down, and health care prices are falling.
Republicans are going to get slaughtered in 2026.!
Bloomberg: New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch is willing to remain in her post under Zohran Mamdani as long as the progressive mayor-elect allows her to keep pursuing her agenda, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
Good to see " The Gaza Loons" winning both seats and LAB vote collapsing
Do you think many lives would have been saved if the real Gaza Loons had released the hostages two years ago?
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 26m So Trump’s gameplan is just to continue lying that inflation doesn’t exist, grocery prices are down, and health care prices are falling.
Republicans are going to get slaughtered in 2026.!
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
We won't go back to Miliband. Yes, he's popular within the party. But that's not enough. He's not seen as a winner, for obvious reasons. Anyway, I doubt he'd stand.
"They" rather than "we", but agree. Forward, not back. In 1988, John Major was Chief Secretary.
The place to look for Starmer's sucessor is the generation below- whoever does a decent job in a mid-ranking Cabinet job now. Think Mahmood/Powell/Philipson/Jones etc.
EdM is past it, Streeting probably had the misfortune to spend his prime years in impotent opposition and so on.
Only as Major was rapidly promoted as Maggie realised she desperately needed to find a viable heir otherwise Heseltine could get it
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
Not impossible the Democrats could win the Senate too next year, they currently lead in polls in Maine, Ohio and North Carolina, all of which are GOP held now and if Ken Paxton beats more moderate incumbent John Cornyn in the GOP primaries polls show the Democrats could win Texas as well.
The Democrats need 4 net gains for majority control of the Senate
Agreed but putting that in "more likely not to happen than to happen" camp..
Suspect it requires another leg down in Trump's popularity over the next year.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
Not impossible the Democrats could win the Senate too next year, they currently lead in polls in Maine, Ohio and North Carolina, all of which are GOP held now and if Ken Paxton beats more moderate incumbent John Cornyn in the GOP primaries polls show the Democrats could win Texas as well.
The Democrats need 4 net gains for majority control of the Senate
Agreed but putting that in "more likely not to happen than to happen" camp..
Suspect it requires another leg down in Trump's popularity over the next year.
Probably but even on current Senate race polls the Dems are just 1 seat short, so if Paxton gets the GOP nomination for Texas Senator and ousts Cornyn as GOP candidate that could be enough
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 26m So Trump’s gameplan is just to continue lying that inflation doesn’t exist, grocery prices are down, and health care prices are falling.
Republicans are going to get slaughtered in 2026.!
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
My main interest here is "will Trump spell the end of democracy in America"
My conclusion is he's too late. 12 months isn't enough to overcome his increasing unpopularity and the limitations of his authority.
Trump-lite will then win the Republicans nomination in 2026 and lose badly.
Perhaps too optimistic, but I stand by it.
That's what should happen. Team MAGA have FA'ed, so in three years' time, they FO.
But, some of them must know that finding out will include moving from the White House to the Big House. That being the case, why aren't they going to strain every sinew to make sure that they don't lose?
Although, averaging pretty much what they always do. Indeed, pretty much what was good enough for their best seat result in over 100 years. The weird effects of FPTP.
I would have thought that, with the Tories and Labour both polling no higher than 20%, that the Lib Dems might aspire to poll somewhat better.
The LibDems have a cunning plan.
Specifically: Reform will split into Advance and Reform; the Labour Party to split between Labour and Your Party; the Conservatives to die off; and the Greens to split between the Party of the Animals, the Party of Gaza and Trans, and the Party of We Don't Want Cars.
In this way, they hope to top the polls with 17% of the vote.
To contextualise how badly Republicans did yesterday versus expectations:
I think this is a simple function of motivation. The party not in power is motivated to get out and be heard. Supporters of the party in power are much less enthused (and some will -no doubt- be unhappy about something the administration has done, and wish to make their displeasure known).
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
Agreed, but the same logic applies in the midterms proper next year.
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
Not impossible the Democrats could win the Senate too next year, they currently lead in polls in Maine, Ohio and North Carolina, all of which are GOP held now and if Ken Paxton beats more moderate incumbent John Cornyn in the GOP primaries polls show the Democrats could win Texas as well.
The Democrats need 4 net gains for majority control of the Senate
Agreed but putting that in "more likely not to happen than to happen" camp..
Suspect it requires another leg down in Trump's popularity over the next year.
Probably but even on current Senate race polls the Dems are just 1 seat short, so if Paxton gets the GOP nomination for Texas Senator and ousts Cornyn as GOP candidate that could be enough
If Paxton gets the Texas nomination, and redistricting fires up the Dems, then I do believe the Democrats could win the seat.
Add North Carolina, Maine and the return of Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and it's possible (if unlikely) that the Dems regain the Senate.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Although, averaging pretty much what they always do. Indeed, pretty much what was good enough for their best seat result in over 100 years. The weird effects of FPTP.
I would have thought that, with the Tories and Labour both polling no higher than 20%, that the Lib Dems might aspire to poll somewhat better.
The LibDems have a cunning plan.
Specifically: Reform will split into Advance and Reform; the Labour Party to split between Labour and Your Party; the Conservatives to die off; and the Greens to split between the Party of the Animals, the Party of Gaza and Trans, and the Party of We Don't Want Cars.
In this way, they hope to top the polls with 17% of the vote.
All goes to plan until the Liberals move one way and the Democrats the other.
I have just been up to the local footbridge over the M60 - which in the flat lands of South Manchester is the highest point around - to look at the fireworks with my wife and some daughters. We also chose that spot to look for the lunar eclipse a few weeks back - along with a couple of dozen others who made the same choice. So we weren't totally surprised to see another figure at the top of the stairs. When I approached, however, several steps ahead of the rest of the family, he sat down determinedly on one of his bags - which I noticed before he did was full of flags - and pulled his cap down and looked awkwardly away, while the four of us cheerfully pointed fireworks out to each other. After ten minutes or so, we headed home. I detected a momentary air of relief from the prospective flag-hanger, before he noticed the cheerful Muslim family heading up the steps to take our place. Honestly, if you're going to go about something which you feel has to be done illicitly, you probably ought to be thinking about doing it rather later than 7pm.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them. There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Combination of name recognition and impatience.
It's likely that Starmer will stagger on for a couple more years. Like Moses, leading his people towards the Promised Land, getting lots of complaints on the way, and never setting foot in it himself, because of his sins over Brexit and Corbyn.
The top people in the government in late 2027 will be different to who is there now. The harder question is identifying them.
And grovelling to @TSE; yes, EdM at 100/1 was good value. At 30/1, he probably isn't. He'd need a real multiple plane crash to happen before he was favourite to take over.
At present rates Labour will fall beneath the Libs by the middle of next year and beneath the Greens by the end of this year (very approx)
Looks like Reform are on a plateau. In a way it's good that they are consolidating their high level, but they will also be wondering where to get new voters from. They need decent leaders or a least spokespersons in Scotland and Wales. Reform has done amazingly well to get so popular here, but needs a Scottish accent, and a non-Tory.
Reform didn’t do particularly well in Burnley last night. Don’t think these results have been posted previously.
Election results 2025 By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025 By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward Candidate Description Number of votes FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240 HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71 MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52 NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43 PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679 REA, Dylan Labour Party 133 Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483 Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward Candidate Description Number of votes AHMED, Shiraz Alam commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706 BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50 FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61 THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510 TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262 Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687 Rejected: 5
Good to see " The Gaza Loons" winning both seats and LAB vote collapsing
I hope you have spent the day shopping at Sports Direct so Mike Ashley can do to the Owls what he did to the Magpies.
Trump: "For generations Miami has been a haven for those fleeing communist tyranny in South Africa. I mean, if you take a look at what's going on in parts of South Africa. Look at South Africa, what's going on. Look at South America, what's going on. You know, we have a G20 meeting in South Africa."
Wait was he trying to talk about South America in this segment and only managed to get it right once out of five mentions?
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them. There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Combination of name recognition and impatience.
It's likely that Starmer will stagger on for a couple more years. Like Moses, leading his people towards the Promised Land, getting lots of complaints on the way, and never setting foot in it himself, because of his sins over Brexit and Corbyn.
The top people in the government in late 2027 will be different to who is there now. The harder question is identifying them.
And grovelling to @TSE; yes, EdM at 100/1 was good value. At 30/1, he probably isn't. He'd need a real multiple plane crash to happen before he was favourite to take over.
I hope PM Milliband is merely a fantastic trading bet and not a premonition.
Funny day. Two different business phone calls. And I had two different ladies both say unprompted that I was "well spoken".
The English are odd.
Things 1 and 2 both sound more convincingly Estuary than I do. After all, they were born in Romford, not near the Solent.
Shortly after the start of our temporary sojourn in Yorkshire, someone said to us, "make sure they don't lose their lovely accents". I still don't know what to make of that.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Darren Jones is going to be forever reminded of that “women and children” gaffe re the small boats. If it’d have been on a less-prominent area of policy, he’d have gotten away with it. But it wasn’t.
Truth be told it’s slim pickings for Labour. Streeting probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can’t see him getting it. Mahmood seems OK, she comes across quite well. But there’s very little vision in any of them.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Darren Jones is going to be forever reminded of that “women and children” gaffe re the small boats. If it’d have been on a less-prominent area of policy, he’d have gotten away with it. But it wasn’t.
Truth be told it’s slim pickings for Labour. Streeting probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can’t see him getting it. Mahmood seems OK, she comes across quite well. But there’s very little vision in any of them.
Mahmood’s last election was quite close. She may need to invest all her fight in retaining her seat rather than retaining the country.
Funny day. Two different business phone calls. And I had two different ladies both say unprompted that I was "well spoken".
The English are odd.
Things 1 and 2 both sound more convincingly Estuary than I do. After all, they were born in Romford, not near the Solent.
Shortly after the start of our temporary sojourn in Yorkshire, someone said to us, "make sure they don't lose their lovely accents". I still don't know what to make of that.
As a Brummie I have, quite remarkably, never heard such a statement within earshot.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Darren Jones is going to be forever reminded of that “women and children” gaffe re the small boats. If it’d have been on a less-prominent area of policy, he’d have gotten away with it. But it wasn’t.
Truth be told it’s slim pickings for Labour. Streeting probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can’t see him getting it. Mahmood seems OK, she comes across quite well. But there’s very little vision in any of them.
Mahmood’s last election was quite close. She may need to invest all her fight in retaining her seat rather than retaining the country.
It’s not entirely implausible that Starmer faces difficulties in Holborn and St Pancras if still PM, if the Greens are still surging.
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Darren Jones is going to be forever reminded of that “women and children” gaffe re the small boats. If it’d have been on a less-prominent area of policy, he’d have gotten away with it. But it wasn’t.
Truth be told it’s slim pickings for Labour. Streeting probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can’t see him getting it. Mahmood seems OK, she comes across quite well. But there’s very little vision in any of them.
Why are all you Tories picking t***s like Streeting and Milliband?
Unless and until Burnham returns as an MP then I agree Ed Miliband is perhaps now the likeliest candidate from the left of Labour to challenge Starmer for the leadership, after Rayner's resignation he has probably leapfrogged her as the main candidate of the left. After Lammy's performance today Streeting is probably the likeliest candidate from the Starmer loyalist camp in the Cabinet for the leadership, in the event Starmer ever resigns
Milliband as PM would be all your Christmases coming at once. He has LOSER tattooed across his forehead.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
Darren Jones is going to be forever reminded of that “women and children” gaffe re the small boats. If it’d have been on a less-prominent area of policy, he’d have gotten away with it. But it wasn’t.
Truth be told it’s slim pickings for Labour. Streeting probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can’t see him getting it. Mahmood seems OK, she comes across quite well. But there’s very little vision in any of them.
Mahmood’s last election was quite close. She may need to invest all her fight in retaining her seat rather than retaining the country.
It’s not entirely implausible that Starmer faces difficulties in Holborn and St Pancras if still PM, if the Greens are still surging.
Only if the Greens have actually overtaken Labour in most polls, Starmer was 38% ahead of the Green candidate in his constituency last year
Comments
Election results 2025
By-election and neighbourhood planning referendum results November 2025
By-elections took place in Lanehead and Queensgate wards on Tuesday the 4th November 2025 to fill vacancies left after councillors resigned their posts. The Worsthorne and Hurstwood Neighbourhood Planning Referendum was also held. The results are detailed below:
Queensgate Ward
Candidate Description Number of votes
FLETCHER, Victoria Reform UK 240
HALL, Janet Renata The Green Party 71
MOKHAMMAD, Javad Independent 52
NUTTER, Susan Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 43
PARVEZ, Musharaf Independent 679
REA, Dylan Labour Party 133
Turnout %: 27.23% Ballot Papers Issued: 1221 Electorate: 4483
Rejected: 3
Lanehead Ward
Candidate Description Number of votes
AHMED, Shiraz Alam
commonly known as AHMED, Shiraz Independent 706
BURKI, Affan Khan The Green Party 50
FERRIER, Dale Joseph The Conservative Party Candidate 61
THEAKER, Gavin Reform UK 510
TOWERS, Millie Labour Party 262
Turnout %: 34% Ballot Papers Issued: 1594 Electorate: 4687
Rejected: 5
"Breed of dog that killed 9-month-old baby boy confirmed"
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-11-05/breed-of-dog-that-killed-nine-month-old-baby-boy-confirmed
Sandford was perfectly reasonable in his analysis.
The English are odd.
[XL Bullys. Not babies.]
Not saying that's now - i don't think is - but in 10-15 years, who knows?
It only works if it strengthens national identity, not weakens it.
https://andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-two-burrnley-by-elections
If I had to choose between EU membership with a patriotic Government, and an independent Britain with a disastrous one, I'd choose the former every time. But if we can have our freedom and a decent Government, why go back in? We have every resource and capability we need.
Some tribal folk or folk with a visceral hatred of someone will be like this to the end.
What it does mean is that redistricting is fraught for the Republicans. It's all too easy to try and ensure you win a bunch of districts by 55-45, based on 2024 results, and then find that you've lost 48-52 in the midterms due to differential turnout. (This is a particular risk to the Republicans in TX, where they did particularly well with Hispanics in 2024, and where recent surveys now show -30 net approval ratings.) My (bold) forecast is that the Republicans could well end up losing seats in Texas as a result of redistrcting.
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m4vrgnecf626
Indeed the 30% Miliband got in 2015 could now well be enough to win with 4 parties now on 10-20% and 1 on 20-30%
Wake up pal
So we should rebase expectations there. The Democrats will win the House, potentially by lot if they reach the redistricting tipping point you mention.
The Republicans will most likely retain the Senate but with fewer seats that make them vulnerable in 2028.
Given that elections are run by the states, I struggle to see how voter suppression can be large enough to stop this.
The place to look for Starmer's sucessor is the generation below- whoever does a decent job in a mid-ranking Cabinet job now. Think Mahmood/Powell/Philipson/Jones etc.
EdM is past it, Streeting probably had the misfortune to spend his prime years in impotent opposition and so on.
Wait was he trying to talk about South America in this segment and only managed to get it right once out of five mentions?
https://bsky.app/profile/joshmallow.bsky.social/post/3m4vrqj4nts2m
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgr4d770znpo
Bloomberg: New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch is willing to remain in her post under Zohran Mamdani as long as the progressive mayor-elect allows her to keep pursuing her agenda, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
https://x.com/annmarie/status/1986153619662528691
My conclusion is he's too late. 12 months isn't enough to overcome his increasing unpopularity and the limitations of his authority.
Trump-lite will then win the Republicans nomination in 2026 and lose badly.
Perhaps too optimistic, but I stand by it.
The Democrats need 4 net gains for majority control of the Senate
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5355630#Comment_5355630
@SpencerHakimian
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26m
So Trump’s gameplan is just to continue lying that inflation doesn’t exist, grocery prices are down, and health care prices are falling.
Republicans are going to get slaughtered in 2026.!
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1986148812554182708
Suspect it requires another leg down in Trump's popularity over the next year.
But, some of them must know that finding out will include moving from the White House to the Big House. That being the case, why aren't they going to strain every sinew to make sure that they don't lose?
Specifically: Reform will split into Advance and Reform; the Labour Party to split between Labour and Your Party; the Conservatives to die off; and the Greens to split between the Party of the Animals, the Party of Gaza and Trans, and the Party of We Don't Want Cars.
In this way, they hope to top the polls with 17% of the vote.
Add North Carolina, Maine and the return of Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and it's possible (if unlikely) that the Dems regain the Senate.
You are right, Lammy was underwhelming today.
Why are you promoting all these drongos, and there are lots of them? There are one or two decent options like Darren Jones. Not beyond making errors, but he gets all the big calls right.
When I approached, however, several steps ahead of the rest of the family, he sat down determinedly on one of his bags - which I noticed before he did was full of flags - and pulled his cap down and looked awkwardly away, while the four of us cheerfully pointed fireworks out to each other.
After ten minutes or so, we headed home. I detected a momentary air of relief from the prospective flag-hanger, before he noticed the cheerful Muslim family heading up the steps to take our place.
Honestly, if you're going to go about something which you feel has to be done illicitly, you probably ought to be thinking about doing it rather later than 7pm.
It's likely that Starmer will stagger on for a couple more years. Like Moses, leading his people towards the Promised Land, getting lots of complaints on the way, and never setting foot in it himself, because of his sins over Brexit and Corbyn.
The top people in the government in late 2027 will be different to who is there now. The harder question is identifying them.
And grovelling to @TSE; yes, EdM at 100/1 was good value. At 30/1, he probably isn't. He'd need a real multiple plane crash to happen before he was favourite to take over.
Shortly after the start of our temporary sojourn in Yorkshire, someone said to us, "make sure they don't lose their lovely accents". I still don't know what to make of that.
Truth be told it’s slim pickings for Labour. Streeting probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can’t see him getting it. Mahmood seems OK, she comes across quite well. But there’s very little vision in any of them.
This is like the 2-6 Cleveland Browns saying they're going to start printing playoff tickets
https://bsky.app/profile/billshea19.bsky.social/post/3m4vtpmnot22m