That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
One interesting tidbit from the exits: @ZohranKMamdani won 9% of Trump 2024 voters
Some people like disruptors, and dislike candidates they see as the Establishment (like Biden and Cuomo). The don't necessarily think that deeply about the very different ways in which different disruptors may disrupt.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Yes US government spending on healthcare is higher than UK government spending on healthcare.
Which is a brilliant example of just how fcuked is the US healthcare system.
On topic, there's a real danger Democrats take the wrong message from the elections and focus too much on New York.
New York isn't particularly typical of America as a whole, and the dynamics of the race were really weird - a "democratic socialist" versus a highly problematic ex-Democrat governor, endorsed by a highly problematic outgoing mayor and current Republican President - I mean, pick the bones out of that.
Virginia and New Jersey are much more relevant - moderate Democrat women with CVs with some appeal to soft Republicans and Independents, absolutely romping home in blue-leaning but nonetheless slightly purple states. Virginia and New Jersey won't be the tipping point states in 2028... but states that are similar and not that much redder will be - they are in the ballpark.
I agree - good comment.
On Mandami, I think he needs perhaps to seek to create a different version of the "City on a Hill" vision, that is better than elsewhere in the USA, and is a rebuke to Mr Trump and the current generation of nihilistic Republicans. But not to poison it with hubris.
Then the hares can be running for a better future.
Reflecting, I think the Republican obsession with "Muslims" may be a useful distracting blindspot for him.
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
A very interesting read from the BBC about about our organised crime around minimarts / cigarette sales, popup vape shops, and so on - including about how it is worked through Companies House.
Long, but worth the time.
A Kurdish crime network is enabling migrants to work illegally in mini-marts on High Streets the length of Britain, a BBC investigation can reveal.
The fake company directors are paid to put their names to official paperwork, and have dozens of businesses listed on Companies House, but are not involved in running them.
Two undercover reporters, themselves Kurdish, posed as asylum seekers and were told how easy it would be for them to take over and run a shop and make big profits selling illegal vapes and cigarettes.
We have linked more than 100 mini-marts, barbershops and car washes, operating from Dundee to south Devon, to the crime network. But a financial crime investigator told the BBC he believes it goes much wider.
The Home Office said it will investigate the BBC's findings.
Overnight I listened to a thoroughly depressing video about conditions in ICE detention camps, where there is now a class action lawsuit.
A transit facility, so no beds and multiple people sleeping on the floor in cells. Standing room only - so lying down in shifts. Medication denied, so an inmate shits their pants, then a change of clothing denied, and so on.
The like button feels inappropriate for posts like this, but thanks for raising it.
In response to ICE's refusal to allow detained migrants to receive the Eucharist, Pope Leo XIV calls on President Trump and Vice President Vance to respect the dignity and religious liberty of migrants in the United States.
“The authorities must allow pastoral workers to assist with the needs of these people. Many times they have been separated from their families and no one knows what happens.”
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
Are Mandami's positions very far left? Where does he sit relative to say Zak Polanski or Neil Kinnock?
Are there not lots of Trumpists running around in circles telling the world that Keir Starmer is a socialist and Sadiq Khan is an Islamist? For Mandami, we have Trump's own yammerings about Mandami the Communist Jew Hater.
The issue there is not that Mandami is what they say, but that the logic of their own ideological positions means they have defined Islam as their enemy - and need to stick the label on anything that moves to justify themselves. The MAGA problem is overwhelmingly in their own heads.
He’s all up for state-owned grocery stores, rent controls, $30 minimum wage, wealth taxes, free city buses, sanctuary city, free gender surgery, non-co-operation with federal police etc. etc.
Whatever else that platform is, it isn't Communism. More like left wing Populism.
We saw lots of commentary both here and in the wider media on the lessons that the Dems needed to learn from the 2024 elections (basically shift right and anti-immigrant).
What lessons do you thing the Republicans need to learn from the pasting in the mid-mid-terms? Presumably to shift left and do something about unaffordable rents and poverty pay?
I see only tumbleweed....
It shows what happens when a party obsesses over its own niche concerns instead of focusing on the bread and butter issues that ordinary people actually care about. The GOP need to drop the dumbo 'antiwokery', the Trump worship, the white christian ethno-nationalism, the climate change denial, the health quackery, the America First international posturing, all of that nonsense, and get back to sanity and moderation. If they don't the US will elect a far left populist DEM as president, probably a crazed corrupt narcissist who is palpably unfit for office, and it will be completely 100% the fault of the Republicans.
“The GOP need to drop the dumbo 'antiwokery', the Trump worship, the white christian ethno-nationalism, the climate change denial, the health quackery, the America First international posturing, all of that nonsense” - But if they got rid of all that what would they have left?
One of the shocking things about the changes in GOP is ever since the Tea Party stuff they seem to have got crazier and crazier and now they seem so far beyond the pale it is difficult to see how they clear the Augean Stable that they’ve become. Will the end of Trump be enough?
I appreciate that the left has its mad fringes but even when Corbyn had the reins of the Labour Party there was still a fairly broad church of elected Labour politicians.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
They won't no but could a socialist like AOC or Mamdani win the Democratic primaries to be their candidate for President in 2028? Not impossible, if they do I suspect VP Vance will be dreaming of a landslide win Nixon over McGovern 1972 style.
If however the Democrats go for a more centrist candidate like Buttigieg similar to their winning candidates in NJ and Virginia in ideology and style then Vance would be fearing defeat I suspect
AOC could get the nomination, but would have a lot of difficulty in a general. Unless the Republican candidate was Trump without the Trump cult, maybe.
The problem is that people assume centrists are useless compromisers. That’s because we’ve (the West) have had a lot of useless compromisers running as centrists. See the number of such creatures who’ve scuttled to the MAGA tent.
Neither Bill Clinton nor Obama were useless compromisers. And they were definitely centrists - but with actual politics and actions.
AOC does seem to be mellowing though. Not the far left firebrand she started off as.
As I mentioned last night, to win the Dem nomination you need to win heavily black southern states with a lot of delegates. Not sure wild socialist firebrands from NY can do that. Remember, Biden was all but dead for nominee until South Carolina saved him and he then swept the south.
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
Fine by me as long as they don't retain access to the NHS, State Pension, benefits and political stability that the UK provides.
Is there another site I can follow the race for the White House 2028 upon?
It seems this board still loves Trump bashing; it reads like a Bluesky thread at the moment, and some of us want rational analysis not a circle-jerk.
We don't want to lose money again.
What’s irrational about saying Trump has undermined democracy? If you’re betting on 2028, you definitely need to consider how fair the vote is going to be.
What we'll get is two things absolutely simultaneously: one, that's he's bound to lose and these 'polls/figures/leaks' show why and, two, if he does win it will be explained away because cheating.
At no point will any credenece be given to the fact he might win fair and square with the voters, or any serious analysis as to why, and there's your problem right there.
Trump cheats. There is a rational discussion as to how much he will cheat and what impact it will have. If you're betting on the result, you need to take that into account.
Trump remains popular with some voters. The Republicans are still predicted to hold the Senate next year. Those who dislike Trump are able to recognise that.
The current polling and the elections last night suggest the Republican party is not popular and point to the Democrats doing well in 2026 and 2028. But, sure, things can change! If you'd like to put forth a "serious analysis" as to why the Republicans will do well in 2028, go for it. You also seem to be saying that Trump could win in 2028. Could you offer a serious analysis as to how he stands when he is clearly forbidden to do so by the constitution?
Just on the question of how he stands, two ways:
1. They run an obvious puppet. Ideally someone named "Trump", for example one of his kids.
2. SCOTUS lets them ignore the constitution. They're already halfway to this because they ruled that just because a state thought he was ineligible didn't mean they could keep him off the ballot. So he runs in the GOP primary (changing the rules if necessary) then states put him on the ballot. Some will try to leave him off, and SCOTUS rules that they can't for the same reason as last time (federal not state business). Conservative media push some spurious legal rationale and after they've repeated it for a while the regular media start reporting it as "some legal scholars say X while others say Y". If he loses the election SCOTUS don't need to stick their necks out any further. If he wins then they have to make what all fair-minded people see as an obviously bogus judgement in his favour to swear him in, but that's a bridge they've already crossed. At that point the Dems' only hope is a popular insurrection against the bent Supreme Court taking to the streets demanding that they... make J.D Vance president...
I'm not at all saying this is probable, he's very old and there are a lot of obstacles and he's already said he won't so I don't think he'll try it. But it's an "England wins the World Cup" kind of improbable, not a "Bubbles the Chimp wins the World Cup" kind of improbable.
A very interesting read from the BBC about about our organised crime around minimarts / cigarette sales, popup vape shops, and so on - including about how it is worked through Companies House.
Long, but worth the time.
A Kurdish crime network is enabling migrants to work illegally in mini-marts on High Streets the length of Britain, a BBC investigation can reveal.
The fake company directors are paid to put their names to official paperwork, and have dozens of businesses listed on Companies House, but are not involved in running them.
Two undercover reporters, themselves Kurdish, posed as asylum seekers and were told how easy it would be for them to take over and run a shop and make big profits selling illegal vapes and cigarettes.
We have linked more than 100 mini-marts, barbershops and car washes, operating from Dundee to south Devon, to the crime network. But a financial crime investigator told the BBC he believes it goes much wider.
The Home Office said it will investigate the BBC's findings.
A big flaw in the system that is being exploited not just by this criminal gang is that setting up a company is very simple and there are basically no checks on what info is on the paperwork. Its worked for years pretty much on trust and that criminals in general don't want to go near this stuff.
Now somebody being down as owning 60 companies and constantly chopping and changing every year should be flashing warning lights. Same with the Chinese Amazon / Ebay VAT avoiders, where a residental address has 100s of companies registered to it.
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
Presumably none of these emigrants will be ‘what about Sudan’ types. Though I guess they could organise protests about the UAE arming RSF murderers and rapists, I’m sure that would go down well.
Rebuilding our complement of towed artillery (along with a large supply of ammunition) would be a far better investment than Challenger 3.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns** - 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando - 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery - 18 with King’s Troop RHA - 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
US companies would be delighted to get employee healthcare off their books, even at the loss of the "chains" that binds employees to them.
Overnight I listened to a thoroughly depressing video about conditions in ICE detention camps, where there is now a class action lawsuit.
A transit facility, so no beds and multiple people sleeping on the floor in cells. Standing room only - so lying down in shifts. Medication denied, so an inmate shits their pants, then a change of clothing denied, and so on.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
Are Mandami's positions very far left? Where does he sit relative to say Zak Polanski or Neil Kinnock?
Are there not lots of Trumpists running around in circles telling the world that Keir Starmer is a socialist and Sadiq Khan is an Islamist? For Mandami, we have Trump's own yammerings about Mandami the Communist Jew Hater.
The issue there is not that Mandami is what they say, but that the logic of their own ideological positions means they have defined Islam as their enemy - and need to stick the label on anything that moves to justify themselves. The MAGA problem is overwhelmingly in their own heads.
He’s all up for state-owned grocery stores, rent controls, $30 minimum wage, wealth taxes, free city buses, sanctuary city, free gender surgery, non-co-operation with federal police etc. etc.
Most of those exist in Europe, or have been considered in Europe. And Europe is not communist.
Are there any significant number of grocery stores in New York. Is this just meeting a basic need - a kind of paid food bank? There's a video somewhere of Evan Edinger trying to buy an apple in NY, and finding it difficult.
Rent controls have been a thing in NY since the 1920s, and are the dominant case study as to why they do not work.
That minimum wage is high, but in place across most of Europe. I don't see him doing $30.
Wealth taxes are just one option, again in use in various places in Europe.
Free city buses are a small change from flat rate travel cards (eg London). NY already has a 7-day one costing $5 a day for bus and subway.
Sanctuary city, free gender surgery, non-co-operation with federal police. I don't see these as being "communist".
We'll see.
Even in Europe, this is mostly far left stuff.
The one thing that economists agree on, whether right or left, is that rent controls are a terrible idea.
Making the city affordable should be a mainstream political objective. You might argue about the means and how effective they are likely to be, but if you show no interest in people's cost of living and practical ways of improving it, you deserve to be thrashed politically, as the Conservatives have been and Labour are at risk of being.
How do we assess Trafalgar now, after last night's results ?
Trafalgar Pollster during Hannity’s New Jersey Town hall last week: Look at who has this race close and who doesn't. The pollsters that have good records, like us, like Emerson, like co/efficient.. they all have this race extremely tight. The ones that consistently fail at elections, they are the ones skewing the averages. So it's important to pay attention to the pollsters who get it right https://x.com/Acyn/status/1985924597263581679
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
US companies would be delighted to get employee healthcare off their books, even at the loss of the "chains" that binds employees to them.
US healthcare is so screwed up, that for most simple scans or blood tests it’s cheaper to pay the provider directly for the service, than the “deductable” on your insurance.
Rebuilding our complement of towed artillery (along with a large supply of ammunition) would be a far better investment than Challenger 3.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns** - 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando - 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery - 18 with King’s Troop RHA - 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
Nope - towed artillery is far less mobile than systems like Archer.
It can't include the autoloaders which allow modern SPGs to fire a mission and be driving off before the first round hits.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
Are Mandami's positions very far left? Where does he sit relative to say Zak Polanski or Neil Kinnock?
Are there not lots of Trumpists running around in circles telling the world that Keir Starmer is a socialist and Sadiq Khan is an Islamist? For Mandami, we have Trump's own yammerings about Mandami the Communist Jew Hater.
The issue there is not that Mandami is what they say, but that the logic of their own ideological positions means they have defined Islam as their enemy - and need to stick the label on anything that moves to justify themselves. The MAGA problem is overwhelmingly in their own heads.
He’s all up for state-owned grocery stores, rent controls, $30 minimum wage, wealth taxes, free city buses, sanctuary city, free gender surgery, non-co-operation with federal police etc. etc.
Whatever else that platform is, it isn't Communism. More like left wing Populism.
We saw lots of commentary both here and in the wider media on the lessons that the Dems needed to learn from the 2024 elections (basically shift right and anti-immigrant).
What lessons do you thing the Republicans need to learn from the pasting in the mid-mid-terms? Presumably to shift left and do something about unaffordable rents and poverty pay?
I see only tumbleweed....
It shows what happens when a party obsesses over its own niche concerns instead of focusing on the bread and butter issues that ordinary people actually care about. The GOP need to drop the dumbo 'antiwokery', the Trump worship, the white christian ethno-nationalism, the climate change denial, the health quackery, the America First international posturing, all of that nonsense, and get back to sanity and moderation. If they don't the US will elect a far left populist DEM as president, probably a crazed corrupt narcissist who is palpably unfit for office, and it will be completely 100% the fault of the Republicans.
“The GOP need to drop the dumbo 'antiwokery', the Trump worship, the white christian ethno-nationalism, the climate change denial, the health quackery, the America First international posturing, all of that nonsense” - But if they got rid of all that what would they have left?
One of the shocking things about the changes in GOP is ever since the Tea Party stuff they seem to have got crazier and crazier and now they seem so far beyond the pale it is difficult to see how they clear the Augean Stable that they’ve become. Will the end of Trump be enough?
I appreciate that the left has its mad fringes but even when Corbyn had the reins of the Labour Party there was still a fairly broad church of elected Labour politicians.
Yes, Donald Trump has changed the GOP from top to bottom. It's a quite remarkable achievement if we can use that word for something wholly malign. Hopefully there's a detox when he's gone but I wouldn't be betting on it.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
US companies would be delighted to get employee healthcare off their books, even at the loss of the "chains" that binds employees to them.
There has been no move, I can recall, of companies lobbying for the government to take the burden off them.
Overnight I listened to a thoroughly depressing video about conditions in ICE detention camps, where there is now a class action lawsuit.
A transit facility, so no beds and multiple people sleeping on the floor in cells. Standing room only - so lying down in shifts. Medication denied, so an inmate shits their pants, then a change of clothing denied, and so on.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
Are Mandami's positions very far left? Where does he sit relative to say Zak Polanski or Neil Kinnock?
Are there not lots of Trumpists running around in circles telling the world that Keir Starmer is a socialist and Sadiq Khan is an Islamist? For Mandami, we have Trump's own yammerings about Mandami the Communist Jew Hater.
The issue there is not that Mandami is what they say, but that the logic of their own ideological positions means they have defined Islam as their enemy - and need to stick the label on anything that moves to justify themselves. The MAGA problem is overwhelmingly in their own heads.
He’s all up for state-owned grocery stores, rent controls, $30 minimum wage, wealth taxes, free city buses, sanctuary city, free gender surgery, non-co-operation with federal police etc. etc.
Whatever else that platform is, it isn't Communism. More like left wing Populism.
We saw lots of commentary both here and in the wider media on the lessons that the Dems needed to learn from the 2024 elections (basically shift right and anti-immigrant).
What lessons do you thing the Republicans need to learn from the pasting in the mid-mid-terms? Presumably to shift left and do something about unaffordable rents and poverty pay?
I see only tumbleweed....
It shows what happens when a party obsesses over its own niche concerns instead of focusing on the bread and butter issues that ordinary people actually care about. The GOP need to drop the dumbo 'antiwokery', the Trump worship, the white christian ethno-nationalism, the climate change denial, the health quackery, the America First international posturing, all of that nonsense, and get back to sanity and moderation. If they don't the US will elect a far left populist DEM as president, probably a crazed corrupt narcissist who is palpably unfit for office, and it will be completely 100% the fault of the Republicans.
“The GOP need to drop the dumbo 'antiwokery', the Trump worship, the white christian ethno-nationalism, the climate change denial, the health quackery, the America First international posturing, all of that nonsense” - But if they got rid of all that what would they have left?
One of the shocking things about the changes in GOP is ever since the Tea Party stuff they seem to have got crazier and crazier and now they seem so far beyond the pale it is difficult to see how they clear the Augean Stable that they’ve become. Will the end of Trump be enough?
I appreciate that the left has its mad fringes but even when Corbyn had the reins of the Labour Party there was still a fairly broad church of elected Labour politicians.
Yes, Donald Trump has changed the GOP from top to bottom. It's a quite remarkable achievement if we can use that word for something wholly malign. Hopefully there's a detox when he's gone but I wouldn't be betting on it.
The only safe way is to take off and nuke it from orbit.
Cleanse it with fire. Burn it to the ground and start again. Every single GOP flunky that supports the Mad King in public should be purged.
Rebuilding our complement of towed artillery (along with a large supply of ammunition) would be a far better investment than Challenger 3.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns** - 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando - 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery - 18 with King’s Troop RHA - 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
Nope - towed artillery is far less mobile than systems like Archer.
It can't include the autoloaders which allow modern SPGs to fire a mission and be driving off before the first round hits.
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
Yes, I was. So in fact US govt health spending (per head) by itself beats ours on the NHS? Gosh. Incredible. So add in the private side and it must be massively more. I guess that's why Americans are the fittest people on the planet.
Rebuilding our complement of towed artillery (along with a large supply of ammunition) would be a far better investment than Challenger 3.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns** - 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando - 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery - 18 with King’s Troop RHA - 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
Nope - towed artillery is far less mobile than systems like Archer.
It can't include the autoloaders which allow modern SPGs to fire a mission and be driving off before the first round hits.
In the context of the modern battlefield towed artillery is essentially static. Which is why everyone has got rid of it.
That was the case in 2022-23, but there are so many drones now that being mobile isn't as useful as it once was. It makes you easy to spot by drone, and drones can hit you while you're moving.
That's why so many SPGs are dug-in now. They're not moving off straight away after firing every time. One Ukrainian soldier was recently quoted as saying that the Ukrainian estimates of destroyed artillery are overestimated, by a factor of two, because a dug-in artillery piece can survive many drone hits.
Overnight I listened to a thoroughly depressing video about conditions in ICE detention camps, where there is now a class action lawsuit.
A transit facility, so no beds and multiple people sleeping on the floor in cells. Standing room only - so lying down in shifts. Medication denied, so an inmate shits their pants, then a change of clothing denied, and so on.
It is absolutely horrendous what happened, and even more horrendous that the government's reaction is to arrest the whistleblower, not recognise there's a problem.
I am not into US politics but certainly seeing Trump humiliated is excellent but not sure that going from far right to far left is the answer either
Not the right message from yesterday's elections. The blowout winners were moderate Democrat women in purple-ish states... you'd have been a bit surprised to see Republicans win this year in Virginia or New Jersey, but they'd have hoped to be within a few percentage points, not 15% and 13% comfortable margins.
Mamdani won too, by a smaller margin in a weird election against a deeply flawed candidate with big questions around corruption and sexual conduct. But I'd not take that as a wild spring to the left by voters as such - Cuomo was unelectable for reasons much bigger than ideology.
Is there another site I can follow the race for the White House 2028 upon?
It seems this board still loves Trump bashing; it reads like a Bluesky thread at the moment, and some of us want rational analysis not a circle-jerk.
We don't want to lose money again.
What’s irrational about saying Trump has undermined democracy? If you’re betting on 2028, you definitely need to consider how fair the vote is going to be.
What we'll get is two things absolutely simultaneously: one, that's he's bound to lose and these 'polls/figures/leaks' show why and, two, if he does win it will be explained away because cheating.
At no point will any credenece be given to the fact he might win fair and square with the voters, or any serious analysis as to why, and there's your problem right there.
Trump cheats. There is a rational discussion as to how much he will cheat and what impact it will have. If you're betting on the result, you need to take that into account.
Trump remains popular with some voters. The Republicans are still predicted to hold the Senate next year. Those who dislike Trump are able to recognise that.
The current polling and the elections last night suggest the Republican party is not popular and point to the Democrats doing well in 2026 and 2028. But, sure, things can change! If you'd like to put forth a "serious analysis" as to why the Republicans will do well in 2028, go for it. You also seem to be saying that Trump could win in 2028. Could you offer a serious analysis as to how he stands when he is clearly forbidden to do so by the constitution?
Just on the question of how he stands, two ways:
1. They run an obvious puppet. Ideally someone named "Trump", for example one of his kids.
2. SCOTUS lets them ignore the constitution. They're already halfway to this because they ruled that just because a state thought he was ineligible didn't mean they could keep him off the ballot. So he runs in the GOP primary (changing the rules if necessary) then states put him on the ballot. Some will try to leave him off, and SCOTUS rules that they can't for the same reason as last time (federal not state business). Conservative media push some spurious legal rationale and after they've repeated it for a while the regular media start reporting it as "some legal scholars say X while others say Y". If he loses the election SCOTUS don't need to stick their necks out any further. If he wins then they have to make what all fair-minded people see as an obviously bogus judgement in his favour to swear him in, but that's a bridge they've already crossed. At that point the Dems' only hope is a popular insurrection against the bent Supreme Court taking to the streets demanding that they... make J.D Vance president...
I'm not at all saying this is probable, he's very old and there are a lot of obstacles and he's already said he won't so I don't think he'll try it. But it's an "England wins the World Cup" kind of improbable, not a "Bubbles the Chimp wins the World Cup" kind of improbable.
Isn't the obvious solution the Putin/Medvedev one? A puppet as POTUS candidate and Trump as VPOTUS. The constitution states you can't be VP if you are ineligible to be President, however you could argue he is ineligible to be *elected* President but eligible to succeed on the death or incapacity of the President
Rebuilding our complement of towed artillery (along with a large supply of ammunition) would be a far better investment than Challenger 3.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns** - 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando - 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery - 18 with King’s Troop RHA - 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
Nope - towed artillery is far less mobile than systems like Archer.
It can't include the autoloaders which allow modern SPGs to fire a mission and be driving off before the first round hits.
In the context of the modern battlefield towed artillery is essentially static. Which is why everyone has got rid of it.
Er, no.
Digging in doesn’t help in an age where strike accuracies are measured in a meter or two.
A towed artillery piece has to be towed into position. Then unlimbered. Then setup. Then manually fired. Which is very slow for 155 - 1 to 4 rounds per minute.
An SPG stops, maybe drops a steadying spade/jack, fires at 6-8 rounds a minute*, and can drive off in a few seconds after the last round is fired.
*in theory, if you wanted to spend money on weight, you could get 60 rounds a minute.
Overnight I listened to a thoroughly depressing video about conditions in ICE detention camps, where there is now a class action lawsuit.
A transit facility, so no beds and multiple people sleeping on the floor in cells. Standing room only - so lying down in shifts. Medication denied, so an inmate shits their pants, then a change of clothing denied, and so on.
It is absolutely horrendous what happened, and even more horrendous that the government's reaction is to arrest the whistleblower, not recognise there's a problem.
They’d better be careful or they might have to stop calling the IDF the most moral army in the world.
Rebuilding our complement of towed artillery (along with a large supply of ammunition) would be a far better investment than Challenger 3.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns** - 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando - 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery - 18 with King’s Troop RHA - 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
Nope - towed artillery is far less mobile than systems like Archer.
It can't include the autoloaders which allow modern SPGs to fire a mission and be driving off before the first round hits.
In the context of the modern battlefield towed artillery is essentially static. Which is why everyone has got rid of it.
Er, no.
Digging in doesn’t help in an age where strike accuracies are measured in a meter or two.
A towed artillery piece has to be towed into position. Then unlimbered. Then setup. Then manually fired. Which is very slow for 155 - 1 to 4 rounds per minute.
An SPG stops, maybe drops a steadying spade/jack, fires at 6-8 rounds a minute*, and can drive off in a few seconds after the last round is fired.
*in theory, if you wanted to spend money on weight, you could get 60 rounds a minute.
This isn't the latest that I'm hearing from the Ukraine War, and seeing in the drone videos.
The main problem now is that anything that moves anywhere in the vicinity of the front line can be seen and targeted by drones, and so an SPG makes itself very vulnerable when scooting after shooting. So they're not doing that so much now.
Dems just won everything remotely winnable. But I expect the British derp on “we must understand Donald Trump’s popularity and/or imitate Trump” to continue. He’s popular when opposing. He’s deeply unpopular when required to run anything. There’s your lesson.
I am not into US politics but certainly seeing Trump humiliated is excellent but not sure that going from far right to far left is the answer either
Not the right message from yesterday's elections. The blowout winners were moderate Democrat women in purple-ish states... you'd have been a bit surprised to see Republicans win this year in Virginia or New Jersey, but they'd have hoped to be within a few percentage points, not 15% and 13% comfortable margins.
Mamdani won too, by a smaller margin in a weird election against a deeply flawed candidate with big questions around corruption and sexual conduct. But I'd not take that as a wild spring to the left by voters as such - Cuomo was unelectable for reasons much bigger than ideology.
Yup.
Cuomo went Full MAGA in New York. Which squeezed the Republican candidate almost out of existence. An unified, moderate candidate could have won against Mamdani.
I am not into US politics but certainly seeing Trump humiliated is excellent but not sure that going from far right to far left is the answer either
Not the right message from yesterday's elections. The blowout winners were moderate Democrat women in purple-ish states... you'd have been a bit surprised to see Republicans win this year in Virginia or New Jersey, but they'd have hoped to be within a few percentage points, not 15% and 13% comfortable margins.
Mamdani won too, by a smaller margin in a weird election against a deeply flawed candidate with big questions around corruption and sexual conduct. But I'd not take that as a wild spring to the left by voters as such - Cuomo was unelectable for reasons much bigger than ideology.
Yup.
Cuomo went Full MAGA in New York. Which squeezed the Republican candidate almost out of existence. An unified, moderate candidate could have won against Mamdani.
Interesting that the NY exit polls have far lower voting disparity across genders and ethnicity. Which would suggest it's a more harmonious society than rest of US or perhaps it's just divided by wealth?
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
They won't no but could a socialist like AOC or Mamdani win the Democratic primaries to be their candidate for President in 2028? Not impossible, if they do I suspect VP Vance will be dreaming of a landslide win Nixon over McGovern 1972 style.
If however the Democrats go for a more centrist candidate like Buttigieg similar to their winning candidates in NJ and Virginia in ideology and style then Vance would be fearing defeat I suspect
AOC could get the nomination, but would have a lot of difficulty in a general. Unless the Republican candidate was Trump without the Trump cult, maybe.
The problem is that people assume centrists are useless compromisers. That’s because we’ve (the West) have had a lot of useless compromisers running as centrists. See the number of such creatures who’ve scuttled to the MAGA tent.
Neither Bill Clinton nor Obama were useless compromisers. And they were definitely centrists - but with actual politics and actions.
AOC does seem to be mellowing though. Not the far left firebrand she started off as.
As I mentioned last night, to win the Dem nomination you need to win heavily black southern states with a lot of delegates. Not sure wild socialist firebrands from NY can do that. Remember, Biden was all but dead for nominee until South Carolina saved him and he then swept the south.
If they won Iowa and NH though, which Biden's opponents failed to do in 2020, then a socialist candidate would then have a shot as they could probably win California and New York even if they still lost the southern primaries
Newsom, who’s made national headlines for trolling Republican President Donald Trump on social media, came second, with 15% of the vote, while Ocasio-Cortez, who’s been increasingly mentioned as a White House contender, finished third at 14%, according to the poll.
Eighty-one percent of the likely Democratic primary voters who responded to the poll said they had a favorable opinion of Buttigieg...
RCP average has Newsom and Buttigieg with 40% between them. After AOC come Harris and Pritzker. In other words, the radical candidate is barely breaking double figures nationally, and it's hard to see what changes that.
Her best shot by far is for the Senate seat.
I am a big AOC fan, but Senate is her better option. She would win that and have a much stronger platform for a later run as President. She still is very young by US political standards.
Or VP slot if AOC can deliver an identifiable bloc, which is all running mates are good for. Sitting VP would then be in prime position for top billing in 12 years' time.
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
A very interesting read from the BBC about about our organised crime around minimarts / cigarette sales, popup vape shops, and so on - including about how it is worked through Companies House.
Long, but worth the time.
A Kurdish crime network is enabling migrants to work illegally in mini-marts on High Streets the length of Britain, a BBC investigation can reveal.
The fake company directors are paid to put their names to official paperwork, and have dozens of businesses listed on Companies House, but are not involved in running them.
Two undercover reporters, themselves Kurdish, posed as asylum seekers and were told how easy it would be for them to take over and run a shop and make big profits selling illegal vapes and cigarettes.
We have linked more than 100 mini-marts, barbershops and car washes, operating from Dundee to south Devon, to the crime network. But a financial crime investigator told the BBC he believes it goes much wider.
The Home Office said it will investigate the BBC's findings.
A big flaw in the system that is being exploited not just by this criminal gang is that setting up a company is very simple and there are basically no checks on what info is on the paperwork. Its worked for years pretty much on trust and that criminals in general don't want to go near this stuff.
Now somebody being down as owning 60 companies and constantly chopping and changing every year should be flashing warning lights. Same with the Chinese Amazon / Ebay VAT avoiders, where a residental address has 100s of companies registered to it.
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
That's why they voted for Mr M?
From my limited understanding of it, yes. The place is insanely expensive and he's promising to freeze rents.
Dems just won everything remotely winnable. But I expect the British derp on “we must understand Donald Trump’s popularity and/or imitate Trump” to continue. He’s popular when opposing. He’s deeply unpopular when required to run anything. There’s your lesson.
I am not into US politics but certainly seeing Trump humiliated is excellent but not sure that going from far right to far left is the answer either
Not the right message from yesterday's elections. The blowout winners were moderate Democrat women in purple-ish states... you'd have been a bit surprised to see Republicans win this year in Virginia or New Jersey, but they'd have hoped to be within a few percentage points, not 15% and 13% comfortable margins.
Mamdani won too, by a smaller margin in a weird election against a deeply flawed candidate with big questions around corruption and sexual conduct. But I'd not take that as a wild spring to the left by voters as such - Cuomo was unelectable for reasons much bigger than ideology.
I agree your take. Mamdani's win gives a shot of feel-good to people looking for evidence that populism doesn't have to be reactionary and insular to succeed at the ballot box. But, you know, it's New York city. "If you can make it there you'll make it anywhere" doesn't apply to US elections. The Virginia and NJ results are more salient to that.
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
Ok for you, what about the slaves your country relies on though?
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
Yes, I was. So in fact US govt health spending (per head) by itself beats ours on the NHS? Gosh. Incredible. So add in the private side and it must be massively more. I guess that's why Americans are the fittest people on the planet.
Yes, and iirc that is also true of other insurance-based systems like France and Germany. People see health insurance and imagine there is no government spending. And the reverse: they see NHS and forget about BUPA and its rivals; most jobs (well, lots anyway) have private health insurance as a benefit.
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
That's why they voted for Mr M?
From my limited understanding of it, yes. The place is insanely expensive and he's promising to freeze rents.
Won't be long before we get the LDs being blamed for Mr M's win!
Michael Burry, the investor depicted in The Big Short who bet against the housing market ahead of the global financial crisis, had placed heavy positions against Palantir and Nvidia.
Telegraph
Edit - has. Now I agree with him 100% that Nvidia’s share price is based on impossible targets but I can’t afford those bets at the moment because the market is still utterly irrational. Got to say I think he’s made the bets a bit too early
Michael Burry, the investor depicted in The Big Short who bet against the housing market ahead of the global financial crisis, had placed heavy positions against Palantir and Nvidia.
Telegraph
Edit - has. Now I agree with him 100% that Nvidia’s share price is based on impossible targets but I can’t afford those bets at the moment because the market is still utterly irrational. Got to say I think he’s made the bets a bit too early
He’s been calling a crash for along time now he will get it right sooner or later.
Rob Arnott was on the recent Merryn Talks Money talking about this very subject and was most interesting, even if there is a correction it always bounces back and bear markets are always shorter than bull markets.
How do we assess Trafalgar now, after last night's results ?
Trafalgar Pollster during Hannity’s New Jersey Town hall last week: Look at who has this race close and who doesn't. The pollsters that have good records, like us, like Emerson, like co/efficient.. they all have this race extremely tight. The ones that consistently fail at elections, they are the ones skewing the averages. So it's important to pay attention to the pollsters who get it right https://x.com/Acyn/status/1985924597263581679
If memory serves, @rcs1000 wrote an article on them (sic: it's a one-man band) once. The conclusion was that the Trfalgar guy does a survey then jiggles the numbers according to his special sauce, which makes it indistinguishable from "he's making it up".
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
That's why they voted for Mr M?
From my limited understanding of it, yes. The place is insanely expensive and he's promising to freeze rents.
Among other crazy policies. I am not obsessed with Trump and the US like others. My main interest is the US markets. However his policy positions sound populist but simply will harm those they try to help. A $30 min wage will simply see jobs lost. Rent controls will simply see supply dry up or, as in Paris, protect the wealthy and those already renting and shut others out.
I guess they need to get it out of their system. Some will learn a hard lesson.
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
Cuomo isn't an Independent, he was a loser in the Democratic primary just a few moths ago.
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
Cuomo won’t have got many Democrat votes. He ran as MAGA (are allegations of extreme personal sleeze mandatory for MAGA?)
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
Yes. The other factor is personal record. If Mamdani is successful in implementing half his manifesto and blaming the obstacles in the other half on State and Washington goivernment - two big ifs - then he should be comfortable for re-election and perhaps more.
On PB we tend to think that most people think on a left-right axis, but actually mostly people don't think much about politics, and when they do it's based largely on an assessment of whether X is successful and makes life a bit better. That's how Trump won, come to that.
Do others agree that a suppurating sore at the heart of the US problem is healthcare?
Could Mandami find a way to have a go at that just for New York? I can't see a practical way.
The only politically possible way to universal health care in the US would be Bernie Sanders idea. Expand Medicaid and Medicare to cover more and more people and more and more conditions.
A city level system could be tried, but the problem would be moving the mountain of vested interests in the existing system. The issue is moving the money train from the company schemes/insurance companies....
It's interesting that if you sum up Federal US healthcare spending - include Veterans and various other health plans for government employees plus Medicare and Medicaid plus some other stuff - you end up with more per head than the UK spends on the NHS.
Considerably more, I think?
Not on epic scale - you are thinking of the *total health spend* in the US. Which is vast - when you include the private health insurance stuff.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
Yes, I was. So in fact US govt health spending (per head) by itself beats ours on the NHS? Gosh. Incredible. So add in the private side and it must be massively more. I guess that's why Americans are the fittest people on the planet.
The UK spends about $5000 per head. The US Federal Government spends around $5700. If you add in US State level programs it's $6,500–$7,000 per head.
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
How do you get your investment back out? AFAIK, you have to have a local partner whose agreement you need to sell on your investment. It's not all rosy out there. Has been described by people I know who have spend decades as full of thieves, rogues and pirates.
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
That's why they voted for Mr M?
From my limited understanding of it, yes. The place is insanely expensive and he's promising to freeze rents.
Among other crazy policies. I am not obsessed with Trump and the US like others. My main interest is the US markets. However his policy positions sound populist but simply will harm those they try to help. A $30 min wage will simply see jobs lost. Rent controls will simply see supply dry up or, as in Paris, protect the wealthy and those already renting and shut others out.
I guess they need to get it out of their system. Some will learn a hard lesson.
His acceptance speech was graceful I thought.
Rent control was famously tried in New York, previously.
It ended up with rental properties vanishing at a rate. It even caused murders.
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
*Well into double figures.
Reposted FPT for no reason other than it's funny.
Pizza with a knife and fork is just fine.
We are talking about a town where a Hero is a kind of sandwich.
OT: the cause of the MD-11 crash yesterday may be looking a bit clearer as more images and video become available.
My initial thought of an unusually violent uncontained engine failure has been quashed by pictures clearly showing the core of the #1 (left) engine lying beside the runway. This means the engine completely departed the aircraft during the take-off run. The big fire on the plane was not a burning engine, but raw fuel spilling from the wing tanks and igniting, which explains the large fireball.
I've never seen any failure mode of a large modern turbo-fan engine which could cause it to totally rip off the wing. So we're likely looking at structural failure or improper maintenance.
The MD-11 is an updated DC-10, and a DC-10 suffered a similar crash in 1979. The #1 engine's mounting had been damaged by negligent maintenance work and the engine tore off the wing during take off, severely damaging the hydraulic systems and causing the loss of the aircraft. A picture of the DC-10 taken seconds before the crash shows fuel spraying out of the damaged wing.
The engine mounts on the DC-10 and MD-11 use a triangular arrangement of flange bolts, which can act like a hinge if the rear bolt breaks while the engine is producing thrust, causing the engine to flip up over the top of the wing and tear itself loose. It looks plausible this is what happened to the MD-11.
I feel deeply sorry for the flight crew. As soon as that engine was lost there was no possible way of recovering the aircraft.
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
*Well into double figures.
Reposted FPT for no reason other than it's funny.
Pizza with a knife and fork is just fine.
We are talking about a town where a Hero is a kind of sandwich.
Permanently short of a picnic.
The ICE Agent alleged that the subway sandwich thrown at him hurt him through his body armour iirc.
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
*Well into double figures.
Reposted FPT for no reason other than it's funny.
Pizza with a knife and fork is just fine.
We are talking about a town where a Hero is a kind of sandwich.
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
*Well into double figures.
Reposted FPT for no reason other than it's funny.
Pizza with a knife and fork is just fine.
have you never been to Italy?
Yes but your average Joe in America rarely knows how to use cutlery. Like in many primitive cultures they mostly eat with their hands.
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
How do you get your investment back out? AFAIK, you have to have a local partner whose agreement you need to sell on your investment. It's not all rosy out there. Has been described by people I know who have spend decades as full of thieves, rogues and pirates.
Watching last night's US voting, it seems in many cases, Americans have resolved to cleanse the system of pro-Russian far right in exchange for the pro-Russian far left.
The US electorate is a 15 year old, spoiled, suburban teenager, swapping out the goth look for the hippy look in effort to further piss off daddy with the most contrarian stance possible.
Sadly, the dumbing down of America costs real lives all over the world, as Russia's coalition of terror plays it like a violin, only growing.
Mamdani is for his many faults at least anti Putin
America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565
*Well into double figures.
Reposted FPT for no reason other than it's funny.
Pizza with a knife and fork is just fine.
have you never been to Italy?
Oddly, I have. For a time period between 12-48 hours, during which I was ill. I exhausted my Italian vocabulary ("quanta costa"?) and left impressed but woozy. During this period I did not witness anybody eating pizza and so cannot opine.
I am not into US politics but certainly seeing Trump humiliated is excellent but not sure that going from far right to far left is the answer either
Not the right message from yesterday's elections. The blowout winners were moderate Democrat women in purple-ish states... you'd have been a bit surprised to see Republicans win this year in Virginia or New Jersey, but they'd have hoped to be within a few percentage points, not 15% and 13% comfortable margins.
Mamdani won too, by a smaller margin in a weird election against a deeply flawed candidate with big questions around corruption and sexual conduct. But I'd not take that as a wild spring to the left by voters as such - Cuomo was unelectable for reasons much bigger than ideology.
Yup.
Cuomo went Full MAGA in New York. Which squeezed the Republican candidate almost out of existence. An unified, moderate candidate could have won against Mamdani.
I'm not sure this is right. I think a straight Mamdani versus Sliwa fight for example would result in at least as big a margin for Mamdani.
In principle Cuomo was the receptacle for Democrats who don't want Mamdani. New York is a highly Democrat city. Mamdani wouldn't win elsewhere, but he doesn't need to: he was the right candidate politically for New York.
Should add Spanberger fought a very different but equally successful campaign in Virginia. Horses for courses.
OT: the cause of the MD-11 crash yesterday may be looking a bit clearer as more images and video become available.
My initial thought of an unusually violent uncontained engine failure has been quashed by pictures clearly showing the core of the #1 (left) engine lying beside the runway. This means the engine completely departed the aircraft during the take-off run. The big fire on the plane was not a burning engine, but raw fuel spilling from the wing tanks and igniting, which explains the large fireball.
I've never seen any failure mode of a large modern turbo-fan engine which could cause it to totally rip off the wing. So we're likely looking at structural failure or improper maintenance.
The MD-11 is an updated DC-10, and a DC-10 suffered a similar crash in 1979. The #1 engine's mounting had been damaged by negligent maintenance work and the engine tore off the wing during take off, severely damaging the hydraulic systems and causing the loss of the aircraft. A picture of the DC-10 taken seconds before the crash shows fuel spraying out of the damaged wing.
The engine mounts on the DC-10 and MD-11 use a triangular arrangement of flange bolts, which can act like a hinge if the rear bolt breaks while the engine is producing thrust, causing the engine to flip up over the top of the wing and tear itself loose. It looks plausible this is what happened to the MD-11.
I feel deeply sorry for the flight crew. As soon as that engine was lost there was no possible way of recovering the aircraft.
What’s known as an uncontained engine failure, and sadly unsurvivable for the crew. It looks like the engine departed the plane, taking most of the hydraulic systems with it. The report is going to be horrible to read. Fatalities on the ground also.
Should we not reflect on our own role in what has happened in New York city? The investment banking industry in London has been wound down since 2008 and returned to New York. Good for NYC you would think, now unrivalled as the world's premier financial centre with us barely daring to compete.
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
I expect the City of London will be cheering Mamdani on, hammer those bankers and the wealthy with tax Zohran like you promised and you will make Sadiq Khan and Reeves look like Gordon Gekko! Maybe London can be top of the finance league again
Clearly a good night for the Democrats, winning the big 3 races of the NJ and Virginia governors races and the NYC Mayoralty..
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
The Democrats aren't going to run socialists in suburban, small town and rural districts, of course. It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning. The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
They won't no but could a socialist like AOC or Mamdani win the Democratic primaries to be their candidate for President in 2028? Not impossible, if they do I suspect VP Vance will be dreaming of a landslide win Nixon over McGovern 1972 style.
If however the Democrats go for a more centrist candidate like Buttigieg similar to their winning candidates in NJ and Virginia in ideology and style then Vance would be fearing defeat I suspect
AOC could get the nomination, but would have a lot of difficulty in a general. Unless the Republican candidate was Trump without the Trump cult, maybe.
The problem is that people assume centrists are useless compromisers. That’s because we’ve (the West) have had a lot of useless compromisers running as centrists. See the number of such creatures who’ve scuttled to the MAGA tent.
Neither Bill Clinton nor Obama were useless compromisers. And they were definitely centrists - but with actual politics and actions.
AOC does seem to be mellowing though. Not the far left firebrand she started off as.
As I mentioned last night, to win the Dem nomination you need to win heavily black southern states with a lot of delegates. Not sure wild socialist firebrands from NY can do that. Remember, Biden was all but dead for nominee until South Carolina saved him and he then swept the south.
If they won Iowa and NH though, which Biden's opponents failed to do in 2020, then a socialist candidate would then have a shot as they could probably win California and New York even if they still lost the southern primaries
Newsom, who’s made national headlines for trolling Republican President Donald Trump on social media, came second, with 15% of the vote, while Ocasio-Cortez, who’s been increasingly mentioned as a White House contender, finished third at 14%, according to the poll.
Eighty-one percent of the likely Democratic primary voters who responded to the poll said they had a favorable opinion of Buttigieg...
RCP average has Newsom and Buttigieg with 40% between them. After AOC come Harris and Pritzker. In other words, the radical candidate is barely breaking double figures nationally, and it's hard to see what changes that.
Her best shot by far is for the Senate seat.
I am a big AOC fan, but Senate is her better option. She would win that and have a much stronger platform for a later run as President. She still is very young by US political standards.
Or VP slot if AOC can deliver an identifiable bloc, which is all running mates are good for. Sitting VP would then be in prime position for top billing in 12 years' time.
And likely her socialist platform then hands the WH back to the GOP again
That’s a crazy read. If anyone in the UK thinks that HS2 has a scope and budget problem, the Americans are way better at scope and budget problems.
Though they can go the other way.
When a critical freeway collapsed in LA (quake), Schwarzenegger (Governor at the time) let a contract to get it replaced. Faster got the company more money - but they had to post a bond to liable for the repairs for several decades.
They got the job done in a ridiculously short period of time, using special concrete, cooling pipes in the concrete etc, working round the clock. It actually turned out to be one of the lowest maintenance pieces of the LA freeway system, IIRC.
No sh!t, Sherlock. Public procurement is basically broken at this point, in both the UK and US.
Watching from somewhere that just gets sh!t done, it’s terrible to see.
You do live in an absolute monarchy, though.
With huge levels of corruption, sex trafficking, etc.
Enough about the UK, what about the sandpit?
No personal income tax, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, 5% VAT, 7% corporation tax.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
How do you get your investment back out? AFAIK, you have to have a local partner whose agreement you need to sell on your investment. It's not all rosy out there. Has been described by people I know who have spend decades as full of thieves, rogues and pirates.
The local partner requirement just got binned, but it was quite specific in the first place related to trading companies in the UAE.
Most actual investment out here is in the S&P, same as everywhere else.
Comments
Which is a brilliant example of just how fcuked is the US healthcare system.
On Mandami, I think he needs perhaps to seek to create a different version of the "City on a Hill" vision, that is better than elsewhere in the USA, and is a rebuke to Mr Trump and the current generation of nihilistic Republicans. But not to poison it with hubris.
Then the hares can be running for a better future.
Reflecting, I think the Republican obsession with "Muslims" may be a useful distracting blindspot for him.
Salary of $100k or investment of $550k can buy you a 10-year “Golden Visa”.
I guess life sucks out here.
Anyone want a spread bet on emigration from UK to UAE in next 12 months?
Long, but worth the time.
A Kurdish crime network is enabling migrants to work illegally in mini-marts on High Streets the length of Britain, a BBC investigation can reveal.
The fake company directors are paid to put their names to official paperwork, and have dozens of businesses listed on Companies House, but are not involved in running them.
Two undercover reporters, themselves Kurdish, posed as asylum seekers and were told how easy it would be for them to take over and run a shop and make big profits selling illegal vapes and cigarettes.
We have linked more than 100 mini-marts, barbershops and car washes, operating from Dundee to south Devon, to the crime network. But a financial crime investigator told the BBC he believes it goes much wider.
The Home Office said it will investigate the BBC's findings.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0mx99ple17o
“The authorities must allow pastoral workers to assist with the needs of these people. Many times they have been separated from their families and no one knows what happens.”
I reached out to a White House spokesperson for comment. They said “the pope doesn't know what he’s talking about.”
https://x.com/chrisjollyhale/status/1985855062288081190
One of the shocking things about the changes in GOP is ever since the Tea Party stuff they seem to have got crazier and crazier and now they seem so far beyond the pale it is difficult to see how they clear the Augean Stable that they’ve become. Will the end of Trump be enough?
I appreciate that the left has its mad fringes but even when Corbyn had the reins of the Labour Party there was still a fairly broad church of elected Labour politicians.
The Federal government, alone, spends more than the NHS costs per head.
Otherwise, they should continue to pay UK tax.
1. They run an obvious puppet. Ideally someone named "Trump", for example one of his kids.
2. SCOTUS lets them ignore the constitution. They're already halfway to this because they ruled that just because a state thought he was ineligible didn't mean they could keep him off the ballot. So he runs in the GOP primary (changing the rules if necessary) then states put him on the ballot. Some will try to leave him off, and SCOTUS rules that they can't for the same reason as last time (federal not state business). Conservative media push some spurious legal rationale and after they've repeated it for a while the regular media start reporting it as "some legal scholars say X while others say Y". If he loses the election SCOTUS don't need to stick their necks out any further. If he wins then they have to make what all fair-minded people see as an obviously bogus judgement in his favour to swear him in, but that's a bridge they've already crossed. At that point the Dems' only hope is a popular insurrection against the bent Supreme Court taking to the streets demanding that they... make J.D Vance president...
I'm not at all saying this is probable, he's very old and there are a lot of obstacles and he's already said he won't so I don't think he'll try it. But it's an "England wins the World Cup" kind of improbable, not a "Bubbles the Chimp wins the World Cup" kind of improbable.
YouGov has a nice article on the False Recall looking at numbers between 2017 and 2019.
Now somebody being down as owning 60 companies and constantly chopping and changing every year should be flashing warning lights. Same with the Chinese Amazon / Ebay VAT avoiders, where a residental address has 100s of companies registered to it.
The Royal Artillery is down to 89 active towed Guns 🇬🇧
What the British Army actually has in the gun sheds today (Nov 2025)
- **89 active L118 Light Guns**
- 36 with 7 Para RHA & 29 Commando
- 18 with 4/73 (Sphinx) Battery
- 18 with King’s Troop RHA
- 17 in the training fleet at Larkhill
https://x.com/agbdrilling/status/1985985132944077069
Given the war in Ukraine has shown that even mobile artillery needs to be dug in to survive for very long, towed guns are almost as useful as the far more expensive mobile stuff like Archer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vI64Vo7ucDg
I am not into US politics but certainly seeing Trump humiliated is excellent but not sure that going from far right to far left is the answer either
Mind you, Corbyn, Polanski and Khan are delighted
And on UK politics
Labour in third on this poll
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 31% (-2)
CON: 19% (+1)
LAB: 18% (-3)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via
@Moreincommon_
, 31 Oct - 3 Nov.
Changes w/ 24-27 Oct.
Trafalgar Pollster during Hannity’s New Jersey Town hall last week: Look at who has this race close and who doesn't. The pollsters that have good records, like us, like Emerson, like co/efficient.. they all have this race extremely tight. The ones that consistently fail at elections, they are the ones skewing the averages. So it's important to pay attention to the pollsters who get it right
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1985924597263581679
It can't include the autoloaders which allow modern SPGs to fire a mission and be driving off before the first round hits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxijbQ0iASE
In the context of the modern battlefield towed artillery is essentially static. Which is why everyone has got rid of it.
Times Radio Politics"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvciyKTJj4I
You haven't lived mate.
Cleanse it with fire. Burn it to the ground and start again. Every single GOP flunky that supports the Mad King in public should be purged.
https://x.com/Breaking911/status/1985927537650733465
That's why so many SPGs are dug-in now. They're not moving off straight away after firing every time. One Ukrainian soldier was recently quoted as saying that the Ukrainian estimates of destroyed artillery are overestimated, by a factor of two, because a dug-in artillery piece can survive many drone hits.
Mamdani won too, by a smaller margin in a weird election against a deeply flawed candidate with big questions around corruption and sexual conduct. But I'd not take that as a wild spring to the left by voters as such - Cuomo was unelectable for reasons much bigger than ideology.
A towed artillery piece has to be towed into position. Then unlimbered. Then setup. Then manually fired. Which is very slow for 155 - 1 to 4 rounds per minute.
An SPG stops, maybe drops a steadying spade/jack, fires at 6-8 rounds a minute*, and can drive off in a few seconds after the last round is fired.
*in theory, if you wanted to spend money on weight, you could get 60 rounds a minute.
Battery EV sales rose 24% compared to October 2024
TESLA however sold only 511 cars compared to 971 cars in October 2024 - that’s a 47% drop
The main problem now is that anything that moves anywhere in the vicinity of the front line can be seen and targeted by drones, and so an SPG makes itself very vulnerable when scooting after shooting. So they're not doing that so much now.
Dems just won everything remotely winnable. But I expect the British derp on “we must understand Donald Trump’s popularity and/or imitate Trump” to continue. He’s popular when opposing. He’s deeply unpopular when required to run anything. There’s your lesson.
https://bsky.app/profile/robfordmancs.bsky.social/post/3m4uxd3sh7k2j
Cuomo went Full MAGA in New York. Which squeezed the Republican candidate almost out of existence. An unified, moderate candidate could have won against Mamdani.
Which would suggest it's a more harmonious society than rest of US or perhaps it's just divided by wealth?
However it is clearly becoming a place very expensive to live in for most people, including the traditional middle class. Whilst being at the forefront of modern change, how do these mega cities genuinely thrive?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c205z4963vyo
"Several critically injured after driver rams into 10 people on French island"
One every three days. That won't sustain a sales force.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283221/per-capita-health-expenditure-by-country/
(Per capita, of course. Iceland does not spend more than us in total.)
Rob Arnott was on the recent Merryn Talks Money talking about this very subject and was most interesting, even if there is a correction it always bounces back and bear markets are always shorter than bull markets.
Irrational or not remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, why does Lammy have his poppy on the right lapel not left?
I guess they need to get it out of their system. Some will learn a hard lesson.
His acceptance speech was graceful I thought.
https://x.com/ridgeandfrost/status/1985974081313751323?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
It ended up with rental properties vanishing at a rate. It even caused murders.
have you never been to Italy?
My initial thought of an unusually violent uncontained engine failure has been quashed by pictures clearly showing the core of the #1 (left) engine lying beside the runway. This means the engine completely departed the aircraft during the take-off run. The big fire on the plane was not a burning engine, but raw fuel spilling from the wing tanks and igniting, which explains the large fireball.
I've never seen any failure mode of a large modern turbo-fan engine which could cause it to totally rip off the wing. So we're likely looking at structural failure or improper maintenance.
The MD-11 is an updated DC-10, and a DC-10 suffered a similar crash in 1979. The #1 engine's mounting had been damaged by negligent maintenance work and the engine tore off the wing during take off, severely damaging the hydraulic systems and causing the loss of the aircraft. A picture of the DC-10 taken seconds before the crash shows fuel spraying out of the damaged wing.
The engine mounts on the DC-10 and MD-11 use a triangular arrangement of flange bolts, which can act like a hinge if the rear bolt breaks while the engine is producing thrust, causing the engine to flip up over the top of the wing and tear itself loose. It looks plausible this is what happened to the MD-11.
I feel deeply sorry for the flight crew. As soon as that engine was lost there was no possible way of recovering the aircraft.
The ICE Agent alleged that the subway sandwich thrown at him hurt him through his body armour iirc.
https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2025/09/14/T4TFZD7OSJBKHBP3S7UM3J3T2A/
The question is did Lammy know this at PMQs ?
Just as he didn't "destroy" the Conservatives the other week either.
In principle Cuomo was the receptacle for Democrats who don't want Mamdani. New York is a highly Democrat city. Mamdani wouldn't win elsewhere, but he doesn't need to: he was the right candidate politically for New York.
Should add Spanberger fought a very different but equally successful campaign in Virginia. Horses for courses.
https://x.com/victoriacoren/status/1985783657777230267?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Also this happened on Wednesday 1 day after new release rules were supposedly implemented - it's almost like they may have created the problem...
Most actual investment out here is in the S&P, same as everywhere else.