It was a very good night for the Dems – politicalbetting.com
It was a very good night for the Dems – politicalbetting.com
Economic anxiety keys Dem sweep in high-stakes races as left leverages voter frustrationhttps://t.co/nVRbzGQLpY
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https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1985633414054031392
Refinery owners apparently have insurance against war, so most of them can’t be arsed to defend themselves against Ukranian attacks, preferring instead to collect the money.
Well, I did say it was my 'optimistic' position.
But if true, that capacity is gone and not coming back (unless the Russian state starts appropriating the refineries/defenestrating their owners).
2. International markets - but paid for how? Not in rubles.
3. Reduced demand - there are no tanks or IFVs left to need it.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1985801341185216918?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Good morning, everybody.
This is not about partisan politics, left vs right, this perspective vs that perspective. We all have opinions and I am the first to volunteer that mine isn't always consistent and is frequently judged by myself to have been in error. Mea Culpa and all that.
What this is about is America - the law, the constitution, its institutions. Trump is openly, actively, currently undermining all of them. Flouting them. Violating them. Its undeniable because its happening in front of us,
CR wants a rational analysis. I think we're having one about something wholly irrational. Its rational to look at the government shutdown, the official statements and videos from the White House, the actions of Congress and to summarise that based on the American constitution, its institutions and political system, what is happening is wholly irrational.
Yesterday we had "mid-midterm" elections. The Republicans got routed. That's the rational bit. The irrational bit is what happens afterwards in the context of all that has already been done and all that the same people say they will do next.
So I feel for Casino. We all want rationality.
The first step to fixing a problem is to name it, and MTG is lying to herself about the past.
We're fucked then...
Why is there an Australian wine named after Dangermouse?
Aka Penfold's Grange, and why does it cost £500+.
I need help from an oenological rabbitholer.
They’re likely to move ahead with re-districting . It’s a more complicated process in Virginia but they now hold all levers of power there . It will need a referendum and several other legislative steps.
Lets be clear - this is undemocratic. But it is less undemocratic than the thing they are trying to stop.
The challenge for Trump is what he does about it. And he's already telling is what the plan is - troopers imposed, insurrection act invoked, traitors arrested. No @Casino_Royale that isn't me bashing Trump, that's me quoting Trump.
Much of the opinion here over the last few years was that the Dems are noble, honest, competent people who were pursuing the best way to bring Trump to justice, who had not driven centrists out of their party and who never gerrymander or rig elections and were led by a man who was not in deep mental decline and who would not issue a presidential pardon to his son who was not a criminal in any case.
Still need 10s for laying though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penfolds_Grange
Needless to say, I have not had the pleasure.
No complaints though, the fewer Russian O&G facilities that are serviceable going into winter the better.
: “Here’s some tea for you — Trump shut down Marjorie Taylor Greene’s personal ambitions to run for senate in Georgia, and she has been on a revenge tour ever since.”
Since betting is its USP it is entirely appropriate to reflect on whether the democratic process in the USA remains sufficiently free and fair that you can bet on outcomes with confidence. Personally, I wouldn't. From a more general perspective than betting, that's a bit of a worry.
Republican guy on tv hand wringing about how Zohran's speech was divisive. You can just point and laugh at these guys you don't need to argue with them
https://bsky.app/profile/internethippo.bsky.social/post/3m4ucw5v35c2w
Their margins of victory however in the 3 told its own story. Landslide victories for the Democrat candidate in NJ, beating the Republican candidate by a 13% margin compared to the 6% margin Harris beat Trump by in NJ last year and in Virginia, where the Democrat candidate won by a 15% margin over the GOP candidate compared to the 6% margin Harris also beat Trump by in that state. Both those results will be especially pleasing for the Dems as they show a clear swing away from Trump and the GOP.
For all the story of Mamdani's NYC Mayoral win though he won with only 50.4% of the vote against the 41.6% for Trump backed Independent Cuomo and 7% for GOP candidate Silwa, That is significantly less for the official Democratic candidate than the 68% Harris won in New York city against Trump last year. Suggesting that if democratic socialism can barely scrape a majority even in deep blue NYC then socialism is certainly not the path back to victory for the Democrats in the midterms next year or the 2028 White House. Some comfort there for Trump and Vance and the GOP if Mamdani's tax rises send the wealthy and businesses fleeing Manhattan and wider New York city and they can tar other Democrats with the same brush. As Corbyn and Melenchon found even if a socialist can win the biggest city in the nation it certainly does not mean a socialist will be able to win suburban, small town and rural parts of the nation
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5347451/#Comment_5347451
Your £100 says that if he’s alive Trump will still be President on 21st Jan ‘29, my £100 disagrees.
Void if he’s dead.
Things can change fast in politics when someone catches the zeitgeist.
NEW: Norwegian Defence Minister fails to back Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize
Tore O. Sandvik tells me it's one for the prize committee
https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1985913275293581549?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Owen isn’t having any of it,
https://x.com/owenjonesjourno/status/1985983832340754684?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
So NYC was 90% Dem, not 50.4%, albeit with tactical voting for Cuomo.
But if Trump can sort Ukraine, and keep the Gaza ceasefire in place, then give him the peace prize.
Mandami will be taking his models from places like London and Paris, and I'm not aware of anywhere in the USA or Canada that has seriously tried to build a European style life in a major city. Maybe bits of Berlin or Amsterdam, but Berlin is small and Amsterdam is so far transformed that anyone starting out finds it difficult to comprehend. I don't think places like Austin, Texas really count - too small.
I think he'll try and go more for rapid change a la Paris rather than London's gradualist approach.
No wonder Trump is upset - he came up through the gangster society in New York. And Mandami could potentially leave the entire approach of US cities festering in the past.
One area that will be difficult will be sorting out the NYPD, and making motoring law enforcible rather than routinely ignored. He'll need to do something about false number plates.
Here's one proposed set of starting points from the NY Streetsblog. They have other articles on the subject:
https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2025/11/05/agenda-2026-the-new-mayor-must-revolutionize-nycs-streets
One to watch is the Manhattan Congestion Charge area, which has been successful but is timid. There will be some symbolic changes. Left up to me, I'd go for the symbol of turning 100 miles of parking spaces (which is a tiny percentage) into bus and mobility lanes.
I’ve heard more than one commentator in the last 24 hours say that, in light of Mamdani’s election, AOC is going to be looking at a primary challenge to Sen Schumer in 2028.
The senior NY Senator has been incumbent since 1999, and didn’t back the newly-elected mayor.
Reputedly still an excellent wine (I’ve not tried it) but the price point is largely down to history and heritage. It was the first Aussie wine to achieve international fame as a great - the first Aussie grand cru essentially. Though it’s quite unusual in coming from a wide range of vineyards rather than a single site, more like a grande marque champagne than say a top Hermitage.
Announce now that if the Gaza ceasefire holds until next years nomination, and substantive progress has started on a peace plan Trump gets the prize in 2026.
Also pre announce that if he can get peace in Ukraine, and maintain it in Gaza, he will win the award in 2027 as well, to become the first person to win the peace prize twice.
Make it transactional. It is what he really wants and the cost to the rest of the planet in tainting the Nobel awards is far less than the benefits of peace.
It appears (to me, at least) that they're remembering that a two party system requires a party to be a broad coalition to have the best chance of winning.
The Republicans under Trump have chosen the opposite extreme to broad coalition, and without their subverting the entire electoral process, that is not going to win them either the midterms or the next presidential election.
It can't be for next year as Trump is in process of creating or enlarging several more wars, including the one on Venezuela.
At no point will any credenece be given to the fact he might win fair and square with the voters, or any serious analysis as to why, and there's your problem right there.
New York has been won by moderate Republicans (remember them) a number of times. But it also gets moderate Democrat Mayors - because they need the centre to win.
And there has always been a serious right wing vote in NY.
Last nights result is unusual - the anti-Trump factor got a more left wing Democrat across the line, than usual.
We'll find out whether Mandami is New York's Hidalgo.
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He’s 4-3 up, best of 11 frames against Chinese Wu Yize in Nanjing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_International_Championship
If however the Democrats go for a more centrist candidate like Buttigieg similar to their winning candidates in NJ and Virginia last night in ideology and style and who can build a broad coalition as you suggest then Vance would be fearing defeat I suspect
It’s just that Trump, and those around him, are worse than the Democrats are.
Are there not lots of Trumpists running around in circles telling the world that Keir Starmer is a socialist and Sadiq Khan is an Islamist? For Mandami, we have Trump's own yammerings about Mandami the Communist Jew Hater.
The issue there is not that Mandami is what they say, but that the logic of their own ideological positions means they have defined Islam as their enemy - and need to stick the label on anything that moves to justify themselves. The MAGA problem is overwhelmingly in their own heads.
It needs to be a clear defeat of the enemy, that has support from everyone except Russia.
Now of course that money has totally dried up, and there’s very little appetite for importing Russian O&G even after the war finishes.
The problem is that people assume centrists are useless compromisers. That’s because we’ve (the West) have had a lot of useless compromisers running as centrists. See the number of such creatures who’ve scuttled to the MAGA tent.
Neither Bill Clinton nor Obama were useless compromisers. And they were definitely centrists - but with actual politics and actions.
Followed by application of whitewash.
California gerrymanders, Texas gerrymanders, Texas gerrymanders some more, California gerrymanders some more.
Both sides are so filled with self-righteousness that they would prefer to destroy the country than let the other side win.
The result will be the country is destroyed irrespective of who wins.
Telegraph
But it is worth giving him a prize if it leads to peace.
"The White House is working on an executive order to strengthen our elections in this country and to ensure that there cannot be blatant fraud, as we've seen in California with their universal mail-in voting system," Leavitt said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-is-working-executive-order-elections-press-secretary-says-2025-11-04/
Trump and the GOP are quite clear about their intent to fix elections in their favour.
I briefly set out a couple of possibilities in the past thread, but really we just need to wait and see how he governs.
The UK is better in that every decade or so there’s a real swing election that clears out hundreds of them.
The US setup is almost designed to give people jobs for life, and way too many of them do just that. Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate in 1972, and served continuously until he left the VP job in 2017 before coming back in 2020. Nancy Pelosi just announced her retirement aged 85.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-dismisses-bad-election-results-blaming-ballot-shutdown/story?id=127202200
According to the current constitution.
Its how much more than normal will be US elections be affected which is important.
Trump will certainly attempt to manipulate and cheat if he thinks he would benefit from doing so.
But is that a 0.1% effect, a 1% effect or a 10% effect ?
Judging from yesterday's results it looks rather more towards the lower end.