The Mid-Mid-Terms – politicalbetting.com
The Mid-Mid-Terms – politicalbetting.com
I guess this has become moderately more interesting when the Democrat Attorney General candidate was found to have advocated violence in text messages: including hypothetically shooting a legislative opponent and wishing death on his children. ?
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Surely Cuomo is in with a shout now the other two Stooges, Musk & Miller, have joined Trump in endorsing him?
Crime and punishment in the US: https://eu.oklahoman.com/story/news/crime/2025/10/24/jesse-mack-butler-stillwater-oklahoma-judge-susan-worthington-outrage/86820368007/
18-year old pleads guilty to “multiple felony counts, including attempted first-degree rape, sexual battery and assault by strangulation”, having been initially accused of far worse. He’s given a 78-year sentence, but doesn’t serve any of it as he’s under 19 and covered by a youthful offender scheme (16-17 when he committed the crimes). Instead, he has 100 hours of community service.
Locals suggest there’s favouritism from the judge, the lad’s father being an important member of the community.
The fallacy lies in thinking that the next election will follow the same dynamics as the last one. And note, of course, that the 'Hispanic vote' is far from monolithic.
Good morning, everyone.
I’m finding the Virginia races the most interesting. The last poll for the Governor race was D+6, and both candidates have been bringing a lot of high-profile supporters to the State.
If the GOP can’t win the AG race they’re in trouble next year.
New York Mayor is another interesting one in what could be a three-way fight, but the official Dem Mamdani is the clear odds-on favourite. I guess we’re about to see what happens when a financial capital elects a communist.
Mamdani has the advantage of being youthful and not having dementia.
Trump has the advantage of a control of the whole government and military machine plus the courts.
He'd win again at a canter.
It seems Reeves is making a statement from no 10 in 5 minutes
Why and how is it right to speak to the nation just 3 weeks before her budget and outside parliament ?
It will be the fault of
Brexit
the Tories
Austerity
Ukraine conflict
It won’t be the fault of
Rachel Reeves
Labour
🥱🥱
Hopefully she'll include an explanation for why the Budget's so damn late.
She will just talk about 'fairness' and 'hard decisions'
We have to wait 22 more days for the in depth horror story
I didn't vote Labour!
Whiny, dreary, monotone.
Full of tedious soundbites.
Austerity
Tories
?
Yes Obama would definitely win if he stood for office again, he’s a very good speaker indeed.
Yet she won’t do anything about reforming the triple lock or tackling her party over the burgeoning welfare bill.
It will be taxing ourselves to prosperity and regulating ourselves to prosperity.
If Mamdani is elected and manages to achieve a small part of his manifesto then he will have outperformed for a socialist politician in the US.
😘
This is all her own fault. She could have cut spending on day one, made modest tax rises and moved towards balancing the budget but instead she chose to blow the budget on public sector pay rises and the endless money pit that is the NHS. Now she's back for more tax rises because, whoops, business investment crashed and now the economy is slowing down so not enough tax is being raised.
She's worse than useless, actively harmful to the national economy.
Nothing I said is incorrect.
Tax rises are coming.
It will be the fault of
Brexit
the Tories
Austerity
Ukraine conflict
It won’t be the fault of
Rachel Reeves
Labour
Oh.
This being America I assume the victims will go for a civil case?
Everyone else !!!!
https://x.com/RachelReevesMP/status/1985620413393879489
I see our politicians are still struggling with debt vs deficit, anybody would think she was a fake economist....unless she intends to cut government expendure to a fraction of its current amount.
It will be taxing ourselves to prosperity and regulating ourselves to dynamic innovation.
Rachel could have another higher-rate taxpayer back in the UK, except that employers are cutting jobs worried about tax rises, and the immigration system is screwed up for people who try to do it the right way.
Speak to the small boats guys. They will have spare seats on the journey back to France.
Parliament only needs to be told first of policy changes which I doubt this will be.
I suspect it will be “Tories were way worse than we thought… utter mess… bad Tories… regretfully we have no choice… put up income tax … bad Tories… cleaning up their mess… taking the right decisions… tough decisions… hard working families… grown up government… not like the wicked Tories”
Looks like primarily an attempt to get gilt yields to keep falling between now and budget day so that the OBR numbers are a little bit easier.
For reference, Sept ‘25 figure is £2,909 billion. Source
Anyone care to bet that the Sept ‘26 figure is lower?
People can debate whether Labour should have made that tax pledge.
Hard to see what will tempt people like yourself to come back. Other than life in perpetual aircon.
The other problem for this kind of hysteria is, while the OBR are present, it's almost impossible for the budget to be as much as a disaster as the Truss one. A new, unhappy standard has been set which will make all subsequent budgets look sensible and considered in comparison.
In the large majority of cases, cutting national debt has always meant cutting it as a percentage of GDP, rather than a cut in absolute terms.
While that would still be a pretty unlikely achievement for this government, it's not quite so absurd.
Its not quite a Mars a day helps you work, rest and play.
Today is not about setting out choices, Reeves repeats.
Virtually no-one is happy with how the government is progressing at the moment. There may well be more votes in breaking the commitment and forgetting about having to cut £2bn here and £1bn there every few months.
I'd suggest if they dont raise some proper money their vote share at the GE is in the 15-25 range whereas if they do it is in the 20-30 range.
Starmer started talking about the need for tax rises back in February. So that's already nine months of uncertainty over what that might mean... and counting.
I suspect it was supposed to be deficit in the tweet.
https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1985327554455105860
I'm hoping this isn't the case but if the already ineffably stupid OSA is expanded to ban VPNs that'll throw the work I currently have onto a bonfire.
Regular PBers may remember AI ate a load of my work a couple of years ago after which I had a wonderful and not at all soul-destroying year or so of trying to find more work. If unbelievably stupid government regulation then destroys what I've currently got it it would be fair to say I would be less than happy.
So maybe doing this speech will leave her with a bit more money come budget day . I expect tax rises but with some sweeteners .
A smart government would have already been preparing legislation to mitigate the more egregious contracts.
Dont believe the Daily Mail and Telegraph. Emigration is rising slowly not massively, and that is to be expected when you have higher inwards migration, as not all settle permanently. Labour slowly getting to grips with deportations presumably also increases emigration.
There was also some interesting comment on Gove's background, and on Paul Marshall towards the end.
(There's 2 hours of it.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwrm1wkuO4Y
Yesterday morning Cuomo was 17.5 on Betfair, this morning he is trading at 10.
Or is there some clause that the government is obliged to sign a new 30 year deal at a price specified by the current contractor?