The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Up with Norwegian and Welsh, Dutch must be one of the most pointless languages to learn, since almost all native speakers have far greater English proficiency than you would ever achieve in their own language. And with Dutch it does sadly sound as if you have a public hair stuck in your throat.
As a bet, backing the Dutch Libs would clearly have been a cracking one. The odds were long, of course, because no-one saw it coming.
Maybe Ed Davey will succeed where Jo Swinson failed??
I consider myself a German speaker and it has crushed my soul that every time I start speaking German to a German, they start replying to me in English by saying ‘Ah, you are English.’
I remember that happening when I was speaking to our French lawyers for an arbitration we were doing in Paris. Every time I would ask for the person I wanted to speak to in my best schoolboy French and every time the receptionist would reply in flawless English. It was indeed crushing.
I used to be an excellent French speaker, these days I sound like Officer Crabtree from 'Allo 'Allo.
Were you just pissing outside the door?
(I've no idea how they got away with that line!)
If you are superficially nice enough, and if you are old enough, the Beeb lets you get away with all sorts of filth without that much subtlety. See Humphrey Lyttleton's material on I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue, and that was Radio 4 Sunday lunchtime.
(Back in the 60s, the I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again team used to put a blatant rudery close to the subtle, but naughtier, innuendo they actually wanted. The first would definitely get the blue pencil, which helped the second to slip in. So to speak.)
Round the Horne was pure filth.
Apparently Polari didn't mean a thing to the managers at the Beeb so all sorts of filth passed under their oblivious noses.
Round the Horne pretty much killed off Polari - a secret language no more.
I would have thought that having a tourism deficit was a sign of success. It shows the country is rich enough to travel the world, and yet is not itself overrun with enough tourists to balance the ledger.
The challenge for Britain is earning enough money from other sources to maintain that deficit.
Stopping foreign school trips coming to Britain was a Brexit benefit! How dare economists suggest it cost us! (OK, not stopped but made impracticable by imposing the requirement that every child had their own passport.) Similarly my Paris moles would regularly visit London but the new requirements make Eurostar a hassle rather than the first part of a break.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Its not the money coming in which is the problem (the UK does very well) but the money going out:
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Up with Norwegian and Welsh, Dutch must be one of the most pointless languages to learn, since almost all native speakers have far greater English proficiency than you would ever achieve in their own language. And with Dutch it does sadly sound as if you have a public hair stuck in your throat.
As a bet, backing the Dutch Libs would clearly have been a cracking one. The odds were long, of course, because no-one saw it coming.
Maybe Ed Davey will succeed where Jo Swinson failed??
I consider myself a German speaker and it has crushed my soul that every time I start speaking German to a German, they start replying to me in English by saying ‘Ah, you are English.’
I remember that happening when I was speaking to our French lawyers for an arbitration we were doing in Paris. Every time I would ask for the person I wanted to speak to in my best schoolboy French and every time the receptionist would reply in flawless English. It was indeed crushing.
I used to be an excellent French speaker, these days I sound like Officer Crabtree from 'Allo 'Allo.
Were you just pissing outside the door?
(I've no idea how they got away with that line!)
If you are superficially nice enough, and if you are old enough, the Beeb lets you get away with all sorts of filth without that much subtlety. See Humphrey Lyttleton's material on I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue, and that was Radio 4 Sunday lunchtime.
(Back in the 60s, the I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again team used to put a blatant rudery close to the subtle, but naughtier, innuendo they actually wanted. The first would definitely get the blue pencil, which helped the second to slip in. So to speak.)
Round the Horne was pure filth.
Apparently Polari didn't mean a thing to the managers at the Beeb so all sorts of filth passed under their oblivious noses.
Round the Horne pretty much killed off Polari - a secret language no more.
If they were so naive they didn't even notice the double entendre of the very title of Round the Horne, no wonder they missed anything slightly obscure.
I found my O Level German to be very useful in Eastern Europe in the early 90s, but everyone seems to speak English there now. My French is middling (A Level but rusty and I was never fluent) and there have been times when the person I've been talking to has stuck to French - I do think the French appreciate the effort. The one country I've found where nobody speaks English (or any other language either, as far as I can tell) is Italy.
My one foray into business with French colleagues was interesting in that we were told that they all spoke English but in fact we found that some of them weren't great, and one of my colleagues and I found ourselves switching conversationally quite a bit when we realised we could find the French quickly enough. I was also glad I had taken the trouble to read their regulations through in French and learn all the technical terms for my presentation in case of questions so I could relate them to their own terminology. I certainly recommend that even if working in English as it really helps common understanding.
D66 led the PVV by 15,000 votes with the postal vote and one municipality Venray to publish its results this morning after a fire delayed their counting .
Venray was easily won by the PVV in 2023 but their advantage is likely to be lower this time and there’s apparently only around 24,000 votes to be counted there .
The seat totals are unlikely to change so 26 each but the vote share is important as to who gets to go first in forming a coalition .
Although the D66 surge came late so less impact on those postal votes but they do tend to skew to the more progressive side so very unlikely the PVV can top the vote share .
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Good morning everyone. I didn’t sleep well last night. After being at my ukulele group and then catching up with PB, my mind must have been still active. I was lying awake making up alternative words to songs we played, such as “Sing me a song, you’re the piano man Sing me a song tonight Tell me a story of Rory the Tory And how he will make things all right”
With my little ukelele in my hand, I ran along the road to Dr Brand. It didn't take him long to fetch his little bag of tools; I held his hat and coat and let him have my book of rules. Out of the bedroom door, he looked and smiled: Come inside and meet your wife and child. My heart, it leapt with joy, I could see it was a boy For he had his ukelele in his hand.
George Formby reminds us of a time when fathers were kept out of the delivery room, and why he was the BBC's most banned artiste.
A few unconnected thoughts this morning - on language (or the lack of it), the fact the word "holibobs" has entered normal parlance suggests the English language is finished. As far as trying to be a polyglot, the maitre d' at the swiss lakeside hotel where Mrs Stodge and I took our first foreign holiday spoke seven languages fluently - my attempts at schoolboy German were treated with a patronising smile as he informed me his English, French, German, Italian, Russian, Romansch and Swedish were probably better than my English.
One (or rather seven) ways to feel inadequate.
While the success of the Conservatives in a straight fight with Reform (60-40) in a Welsh community council by-election might be a straw to clutch, they had a decent result in Barnet in a seat where, by all accounts, the kitchen sink has been in residence for the last two or three weeks but the size of the Reform vote suggests (as it did in Plaistow last month) the extent of the Reform challenge in London might be being under-estimated.
The by-election in Worcestershire, however, showed Reform aren't impervious to tactical voting and that may be an issue for them as 30-35% usually wins against competing opponents but not always if you're facing only one serious opponent. I suspect Reform don't have the resources to campaign everywhere so looking at where they do put in effort will be significant.
The Dutch election has three "gemeenten" (polling districts?) still to report - two in Limburg and one in South Holland. I suspect they won't alter the overall result. Jetten seems to think a four party coalition consisting of D66, VVD, GL/PVDA and CDA is possible but a lot will depend on whether the VVD (which has moved "right" in recent times) will be able to work with a post-Timmermans GL/PVDA (there's some history there).
I fear we will hear progressively bad news from Jamaica as areas in the west of the island are finally reached - it's fortunate Kingston Airport is back operational and aid can now arrive but getting it to where it's needed is the next challenge.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Its not the money coming in which is the problem (the UK does very well) but the money going out:
It's frankly amazing that we have more tourism revenue than France.
And shouldn't be surprising that we spend more abroad given - like the Germans - many people want to go somewhere reliably sunny on holiday. It's a struggle to do that domestically.
Our expenditure is $119bn Vs $120bn for Germany.
I think this is a non-story. As others have said, being able to spend money on foreign holidays is a positive sign, even if it needs to be balanced out elsewhere.
It appears that the Russians are now using their nuclear-capable 9M729 missile against Ukraine, this is possibly what’s triggered the US announcement about testing.
The 9M729 cruise missile would have lit up like a Christmas tree at American intelligence stations.
Curiously similar to the UK free speech cases the US right got so exercised about. Oddly, they don't seem bothered by this one.
"I'm glad to be out," Larry Bushart told me after more than a month behind bars for posting an anti-Trump meme. Bushart and his wife wanted to refrain from commenting further until they meet with their lawyer; some First Amendment experts say Bushart may have a strong civil case https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1984074205290492246
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
You can’t stop people going on holiday and the hospitality industry couldn’t cope if there was a big increase in staycations as there’s not enough staff which wasn’t the case before Brexit .
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.
It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
And yet young people (such as my eldest daughter) report that it is very hard to find even such low paid jobs. She is working in chain restaurant as a server (while studying as a uni student), the wages are minimum wage plus some pennies. She got the job because a friend works there - and got her the job round a queue of people lining up to take the job.
All her friends report the same - huge numbers of applications for legitimate, minimum wage jobs.
There is a real problem here and it seems to be growing.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
Well, all right, but if we follow that argument to its logical conclusion, we would ban people from taking holidays abroad and force them to enjoy what were called "staycations" a few years back.
The problem is if you want some warmth and sunshine (almost guaranteed) you can wait for climate change to bring it to the UK or you can go to France, Italy, Spain, Greece or wherever which will be fine until conditions become unbearable in high summer sue to the heat, forest fires, lack of water etc in a few decades (apparently).
The advent of relatively inexpensive transport to warmer places has had the effect you'd expect it to have and the figures for Denmark and Sweden might be enlightening.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
You can’t stop people going on holiday and the hospitality industry couldn’t cope if there was a big increase in staycations as there’s not enough staff which wasn’t the case before Brexit .
How language and expectations change. I remember when staycation meant staying at home rather than staying in your own country.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
Up with Norwegian and Welsh, Dutch must be one of the most pointless languages to learn, since almost all native speakers have far greater English proficiency than you would ever achieve in their own language. And with Dutch it does sadly sound as if you have a public hair stuck in your throat.
As a bet, backing the Dutch Libs would clearly have been a cracking one. The odds were long, of course, because no-one saw it coming.
Maybe Ed Davey will succeed where Jo Swinson failed??
I consider myself a German speaker and it has crushed my soul that every time I start speaking German to a German, they start replying to me in English by saying ‘Ah, you are English.’
I get that in Italy, now and again. Indeed this last visit I tried speaking to this old lady in Italian and she replied "Sorry, no English..."
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
This week, green power provided a huge percentage of UK's energy use
Also this week, near zero small boat crossings
Proof, as if it were needed, that burning fossil fuels causes illegal immigration
A mild and breezy winter will help the government in all sorts of ways.
Latest ECMWF deterministic forecast does have a Scandinavian high at day 10 which wasn't in the forecast yesterday. Will be interesting to see if that's still in subsequent forecasts.
Have the Express rolled out the first, "we're going to be buried in snow," story of the winter yet?
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
My understanding is that it’s not a status quo resolution due to the expiry of obamacare provisions so it’s deliberately disingenuous to pretend that the CR is the neutral position
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
...because letting it meet would trigger a vote on releasing the Epstein files: vote to release and face Trump's vengeance, or vote to block and face the voters' vengeance.
They somehow think refusing to address this dilemma will make it go away. Except, tomorrow, large swathes of voters lose their food stamps and SNAP. That's going to placate them. Not.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
You can’t stop people going on holiday and the hospitality industry couldn’t cope if there was a big increase in staycations as there’s not enough staff which wasn’t the case before Brexit .
How language and expectations change. I remember when staycation meant staying at home rather than staying in your own country.
Doubly weird since it's a pun on a word we don't even use.
Wot - centrist/progressive party makes huge gains at the expense nasty populists? Imagine if that becomes a thing....
To an extent, what happened was that parties who were in the coalition government lost seats to ideologically similar parties who were not. So, the PVV (hard right populists) lost 11 seats, but 2 similar parties gained seats: Ja21 up 8, FvD up 4. The NSC were wiped out, losing 20, but the CDA were up 13. The NSC began as a CDA split.
D66 did great (+17), but their gains were partly from the left (GL/PvdA -5, SP -2, Volt -1). So, maybe half the D66 gains were from the NSC collapse?
The hard right vote was similar in size, but splintered, while the centrist-progressives made some gains from the centre-right and centre-left.
My understanding is that D66 have shifted to the right, draped themselves in the flag, and made claims about getting asylum under control.
Ah so they are in the Keir Starmer mould!
Yes. And if they remain in that mould, likely to be just as successful.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The hotels have a lot of power though, because the alternative is asylum seekers camping out under bridges in central London.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
Well, all right, but if we follow that argument to its logical conclusion, we would ban people from taking holidays abroad and force them to enjoy what were called "staycations" a few years back.
The problem is if you want some warmth and sunshine (almost guaranteed) you can wait for climate change to bring it to the UK or you can go to France, Italy, Spain, Greece or wherever which will be fine until conditions become unbearable in high summer sue to the heat, forest fires, lack of water etc in a few decades (apparently).
The advent of relatively inexpensive transport to warmer places has had the effect you'd expect it to have and the figures for Denmark and Sweden might be enlightening.
At first glance that graph shows surprisingly stability - that the proportions of tourists to the UK and from the UK have remained the same, pretty much, as the world got richer.
Not to mention the cultural belief in the UK that a holiday *has* to have sun. Hence the popularity of desert islands a short flight away.
The reluctance of immigrants to the UK to take holidays in the UK has been noted. It's not fear of racism - it's simply that they regard the idea of walking around the Lake District vs beach in Turkey as a no-brainer.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
My understanding is that it’s not a status quo resolution due to the expiry of obamacare provisions so it’s deliberately disingenuous to pretend that the CR is the neutral position
The Obamacare subsidy provisions expiry date were pandemic-era when the Dems had a majority, it’s their expiry date. The continuing resolution lets federal workers be paid and allows negotiations to start on funding other programmes.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
My understanding is that it’s not a status quo resolution due to the expiry of obamacare provisions so it’s deliberately disingenuous to pretend that the CR is the neutral position
The Obamacare subsidy provisions expiry date were pandemic-era when the Dems had a majority, it’s their expiry date. The continuing resolution lets federal workers be paid and allows negotiations to start on funding other programmes.
The airlines want the CR to be passed.
I don’t understand why you swallow the Trumpian nonsense. There is no negotiating with Trump in Congress the Dems have been burned by that too many times already. This is on the GOP as the polling thankfully agrees
Up with Norwegian and Welsh, Dutch must be one of the most pointless languages to learn, since almost all native speakers have far greater English proficiency than you would ever achieve in their own language. And with Dutch it does sadly sound as if you have a public hair stuck in your throat.
As a bet, backing the Dutch Libs would clearly have been a cracking one. The odds were long, of course, because no-one saw it coming.
Maybe Ed Davey will succeed where Jo Swinson failed??
I consider myself a German speaker and it has crushed my soul that every time I start speaking German to a German, they start replying to me in English by saying ‘Ah, you are English.’
I remember that happening when I was speaking to our French lawyers for an arbitration we were doing in Paris. Every time I would ask for the person I wanted to speak to in my best schoolboy French and every time the receptionist would reply in flawless English. It was indeed crushing.
I used to be an excellent French speaker, these days I sound like Officer Crabtree from 'Allo 'Allo.
Were you just pissing outside the door?
(I've no idea how they got away with that line!)
If you are superficially nice enough, and if you are old enough, the Beeb lets you get away with all sorts of filth without that much subtlety. See Humphrey Lyttleton's material on I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue, and that was Radio 4 Sunday lunchtime.
(Back in the 60s, the I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again team used to put a blatant rudery close to the subtle, but naughtier, innuendo they actually wanted. The first would definitely get the blue pencil, which helped the second to slip in. So to speak.)
Round the Horne was pure filth.
Apparently Polari didn't mean a thing to the managers at the Beeb so all sorts of filth passed under their oblivious noses.
Round the Horne pretty much killed off Polari - a secret language no more.
When my German colleague and I covered a French customer for my global megacorp, we conducted calls in English. When a City friend visited his Italian clients, he was shocked to discover that only English was spoken in their dealing room – this rule was maintained even among themselves to avoid expensive mistranslations.
When I lived in Geneva everything was done in English at work apart from social situations (office drinks, gossiping in the kitchens whilst making coffee etc). It was actually a bit frustrating as I’m close to fluent in French and was hoping to just tip over to absolutely fluency but from work to ordering in bars or restaurants everyone wanted to speak English to you to improve their English.
In Beirut they have English/US ad agencies where only English is spoken and French ones where only French is spoken. All big international agencies and roughly equal in number. But there always seemed to be something a little classier walking into Publicis than Saatchis
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The financial benefit has to be balanced against the risk of your hotel being burned down.
Up with Norwegian and Welsh, Dutch must be one of the most pointless languages to learn, since almost all native speakers have far greater English proficiency than you would ever achieve in their own language. And with Dutch it does sadly sound as if you have a public hair stuck in your throat.
As a bet, backing the Dutch Libs would clearly have been a cracking one. The odds were long, of course, because no-one saw it coming.
Maybe Ed Davey will succeed where Jo Swinson failed??
I consider myself a German speaker and it has crushed my soul that every time I start speaking German to a German, they start replying to me in English by saying ‘Ah, you are English.’
I remember that happening when I was speaking to our French lawyers for an arbitration we were doing in Paris. Every time I would ask for the person I wanted to speak to in my best schoolboy French and every time the receptionist would reply in flawless English. It was indeed crushing.
I used to be an excellent French speaker, these days I sound like Officer Crabtree from 'Allo 'Allo.
Were you just pissing outside the door?
(I've no idea how they got away with that line!)
If you are superficially nice enough, and if you are old enough, the Beeb lets you get away with all sorts of filth without that much subtlety. See Humphrey Lyttleton's material on I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue, and that was Radio 4 Sunday lunchtime.
(Back in the 60s, the I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again team used to put a blatant rudery close to the subtle, but naughtier, innuendo they actually wanted. The first would definitely get the blue pencil, which helped the second to slip in. So to speak.)
Round the Horne was pure filth.
Apparently Polari didn't mean a thing to the managers at the Beeb so all sorts of filth passed under their oblivious noses.
Round the Horne pretty much killed off Polari - a secret language no more.
Up with Norwegian and Welsh, Dutch must be one of the most pointless languages to learn, since almost all native speakers have far greater English proficiency than you would ever achieve in their own language. And with Dutch it does sadly sound as if you have a public hair stuck in your throat.
As a bet, backing the Dutch Libs would clearly have been a cracking one. The odds were long, of course, because no-one saw it coming.
Maybe Ed Davey will succeed where Jo Swinson failed??
I consider myself a German speaker and it has crushed my soul that every time I start speaking German to a German, they start replying to me in English by saying ‘Ah, you are English.’
I remember that happening when I was speaking to our French lawyers for an arbitration we were doing in Paris. Every time I would ask for the person I wanted to speak to in my best schoolboy French and every time the receptionist would reply in flawless English. It was indeed crushing.
I used to be an excellent French speaker, these days I sound like Officer Crabtree from 'Allo 'Allo.
Were you just pissing outside the door?
(I've no idea how they got away with that line!)
If you are superficially nice enough, and if you are old enough, the Beeb lets you get away with all sorts of filth without that much subtlety. See Humphrey Lyttleton's material on I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue, and that was Radio 4 Sunday lunchtime.
(Back in the 60s, the I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again team used to put a blatant rudery close to the subtle, but naughtier, innuendo they actually wanted. The first would definitely get the blue pencil, which helped the second to slip in. So to speak.)
Round the Horne was pure filth.
Apparently Polari didn't mean a thing to the managers at the Beeb so all sorts of filth passed under their oblivious noses.
Round the Horne pretty much killed off Polari - a secret language no more.
Its origins are obscure but I believe there is some evidence it evolved as a kind of lingua france amongst the pirates and privateers plying their trade around the Barbary Coast a few centuries back.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
And yet young people (such as my eldest daughter) report that it is very hard to find even such low paid jobs. She is working in chain restaurant as a server (while studying as a uni student), the wages are minimum wage plus some pennies. She got the job because a friend works there - and got her the job round a queue of people lining up to take the job.
All her friends report the same - huge numbers of applications for legitimate, minimum wage jobs.
There is a real problem here and it seems to be growing.
Even when I was a student back in the Renaissance, when there were grants, there were those who augmented their stipend with second jobs - the most popular being night work at the bakery over the road from the first year Halls of Residence.
I worked in a bookies during the holidays - marking the board for what was then Mecca Bookmakers. Fortunately, I never had to work during term time but I can understand in the era of student loans and higher living costs the need for students to get second or even third jobs and this is one of the big changes we now see - more people with second or third jobs to make ends meet.
The problem is if you have two jobs, it means someone else can't get one job so you have a group of people working all the hours God sends to survive and those who can't get on the ladder and I suspect those with experience will hoover up the vacancies rather than those with the aptitude but no marketable skills.
I wonder sometimes if some of those who evade fares on the Underground are doing so simply because they can't afford to pay the cost of travel (I'm sure that's not true of the majority) on top of their rent, food and everything else from what they earn. We forget sometimes (and I've only had a glimpse of it in my life) how hard it really is for some people who have very little to survive.
Not far from us is a small block of flats which was built in the early 90s and designed for single people and childless couples - now the one bedroom flats have whole families living in them because that's all they can afford - I know one of the tenants, he works at our local Tesco's but has a second job at a warehouse and his wife works and they are trying to bring up two small children in a one bedroom flat. It's stories like this which make me angry - we could and should be so much better than this. Yes, it's not absolute poverty by any measure but the levels of relative poverty in this country are a disgrace.
Here is my discovery of the day - I knew the US was a country of have and have nots but
Roughly one in eight people in the United States receive food stamps, which average around $187 a month and cost the federal government about $8 billion monthly.
I've had something rumbling around in my head for a few weeks. If I were Leon, I'd ham it up as a unique insight. Not being Leon, I suspect that what I'm about to write is in no way original. If the latter is true, I'd appreciate anyone pointing me towards anything I can read about it.
Anyway, the thought: we make a real mistake when we compare Trump's dismantling of democracy and the rule of law with Nazism or even Fascism, because from our perspective in retrospect Nazism was so clearly evil and Fascism so clearly led to evil outcomes. It is not so clear, as least not to those on Trump's side right now, that what he is doing either is, or will lead to, evil. In fact it looks to them like the answer to their problems, otherwise they wouldn't support him.
And thus the comparison with Hitler is easily rejected: Hitler was evil, Trump might be a bit 'out there' but he isn't evil, so these libs are just frothing unnecessarily.
What is, I think, much more instructive, is to put ourselves in the minds of the average busy, stressed German or Italian in 1924, after the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome. Perhaps you've got a family to feed, or a busy job. You're not that engaged in politics. A leader comes along who so clearly speaks to you about the flaws and failures in the current political system, and offers a radical solution to them. You have a few misgivings about their methods, but those methods sort of align with your prejudices so you damp down any disquiet. The frog gently boils.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that evil regimes don't (usually) seem evil in advance. Indeed, if democratically elected, they seem like the answer to our problems, just as Trump does for many, including some on here.
So I think a much more interesting question than whether Trump is a Nazi is: what percentage risk is there that the USA develops into an evil regime over the next generation or two, either intentionally or otherwise? And what percentage risk is acceptable to a Trump supporter? What cognitive dissonance are they experiencing, and how can non-Trump supporters help make that cognitive dissonance more visible?
Looking from the outside, with USA's still unique military and cultural dominance, I'd say the tolerable percentage risk of going full Dr. Evil is incredibly low. For an American I can see the tolerable risk is higher, and the challenge all Americans face is to highlight the risk in the ways the situation over there could develop into something that even a Trump supporter would recognise as evil.
Anyway, I'm on a plane in 15 mins so may not reply for a bit, but if you know anyone writing about this I'd really appreciate you letting me know. Thanks.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The hotels have a lot of power though, because the alternative is asylum seekers camping out under bridges in central London.
There are a very large number of hotels in the UK. Unless you can organise them as a cartel... And business has not been the best, recently.
The incentives are huge. Imagine you are the manager for an area of the chain -
"Hey, boss. I've arranged a contract where we get paid X a year for 3 years. By the time the costs are cut, the stable profit will be double what we could make if the market was good. And it's not good."
The problem is that the people in government seem to be crap at negotiating.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
Yes, a good result for D66 and again an example of a liberal party coming top to beat a party of the populist right.
As also happened in Canada earlier this year and in France in the 2022 French presidential and legislative elections.
Hence the better Reform do, the more there may be an opportunity for the LDs in the liberal centre if the next general election becomes more about cultural issues than the economy and the traditional battle between Conservatives and Labour (though the tax rising budget expected may see a shift back to that)
It looks like the non-Reform vote swung behind the LDs, taking the seat despite only a tiny drop in the Reform share, which augurs very well
Looks like in middle class Bromsgrove at least even Tory voters as well as Labour and former Green and Independent voters tactically voted LD to beat Reform
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
Except they don’t control the Senate, which needs 60 votes to pass the Budget.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The financial benefit has to be balanced against the risk of your hotel being burned down.
That'll either be commercially or effectively gov't insured against.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The hotels have a lot of power though, because the alternative is asylum seekers camping out under bridges in central London.
There are a very large number of hotels in the UK. Unless you can organise them as a cartel... And business has not been the best, recently.
The incentives are huge. Imagine you are the manager for an area of the chain -
"Hey, boss. I've arranged a contract where we get paid X a year for 3 years. By the time the costs are cut, the stable profit will be double what we could make if the market was good. And it's not good."
The problem is that the people in government seem to be crap at negotiating.
Remember there are now rules about the maximum percentage of asylum seekers who can be in any area - no more than 2% population or something like that. So they can't just pick any hotel.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
Except they don’t control the Senate, which needs 60 votes to pass the Budget.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
I've had something rumbling around in my head for a few weeks. If I were Leon, I'd ham it up as a unique insight. Not being Leon, I suspect that what I'm about to write is in no way original. If the latter is true, I'd appreciate anyone pointing me towards anything I can read about it.
Anyway, the thought: we make a real mistake when we compare Trump's dismantling of democracy and the rule of law with Nazism or even Fascism, because from our perspective in retrospect Nazism was so clearly evil and Fascism so clearly led to evil outcomes. It is not so clear, as least not to those on Trump's side right now, that what he is doing either is, or will lead to, evil. In fact it looks to them like the answer to their problems, otherwise they wouldn't support him.
And thus the comparison with Hitler is easily rejected: Hitler was evil, Trump might be a bit 'out there' but he isn't evil, so these libs are just frothing unnecessarily.
What is, I think, much more instructive, is to put ourselves in the minds of the average busy, stressed German or Italian in 1924, after the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome. Perhaps you've got a family to feed, or a busy job. You're not that engaged in politics. A leader comes along who so clearly speaks to you about the flaws and failures in the current political system, and offers a radical solution to them. You have a few misgivings about their methods, but those methods sort of align with your prejudices so you damp down any disquiet. The frog gently boils.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that evil regimes don't (usually) seem evil in advance. Indeed, if democratically elected, they seem like the answer to our problems, just as Trump does for many, including some on here.
So I think a much more interesting question than whether Trump is a Nazi is: what percentage risk is there that the USA develops into an evil regime over the next generation or two, either intentionally or otherwise? And what percentage risk is acceptable to a Trump supporter? What cognitive dissonance are they experiencing, and how can non-Trump supporters help make that cognitive dissonance more visible?
Looking from the outside, with USA's still unique military and cultural dominance, I'd say the tolerable percentage risk of going full Dr. Evil is incredibly low. For an American I can see the tolerable risk is higher, and the challenge all Americans face is to highlight the risk in the ways the situation over there could develop into something that even a Trump supporter would recognise as evil.
Anyway, I'm on a plane in 15 mins so may not reply for a bit, but if you know anyone writing about this I'd really appreciate you letting me know. Thanks.
The problem is incrementalism.
Trump is madly piling a bunch of levers, while the people he's brought along work on their own ideas.
Trump will be 82+ at the end of his term. The question is really where MAGA goes from here - who's the next King?
The survival of Peronism in Argentina is a possible parallel.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
The GOP doesn't have 60 senators so it doesn't control every branch of government.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The financial benefit has to be balanced against the risk of your hotel being burned down.
Most of the hotels being used would struggle to get more than a handful of free market guests.
The one in Leicester is noted for its wildlife, mostly rats and bed bugs.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
A Yellow Sun you say?
Incidentally, what places like Turkey & Bulgaria do, is to ban measuring water quality near resorts.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.
Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
Wot - centrist/progressive party makes huge gains at the expense nasty populists? Imagine if that becomes a thing....
To an extent, what happened was that parties who were in the coalition government lost seats to ideologically similar parties who were not. So, the PVV (hard right populists) lost 11 seats, but 2 similar parties gained seats: Ja21 up 8, FvD up 4. The NSC were wiped out, losing 20, but the CDA were up 13. The NSC began as a CDA split.
D66 did great (+17), but their gains were partly from the left (GL/PvdA -5, SP -2, Volt -1). So, maybe half the D66 gains were from the NSC collapse?
The hard right vote was similar in size, but splintered, while the centrist-progressives made some gains from the centre-right and centre-left.
My understanding is that D66 have shifted to the right, draped themselves in the flag, and made claims about getting asylum under control.
Ah so they are in the Keir Starmer mould!
Yes. And if they remain in that mould, likely to be just as successful.
Although we can all hope they are somewhat more successful and our government starts to emulate them.
I found my O Level German to be very useful in Eastern Europe in the early 90s, but everyone seems to speak English there now. My French is middling (A Level but rusty and I was never fluent) and there have been times when the person I've been talking to has stuck to French - I do think the French appreciate the effort. The one country I've found where nobody speaks English (or any other language either, as far as I can tell) is Italy.
My one foray into business with French colleagues was interesting in that we were told that they all spoke English but in fact we found that some of them weren't great, and one of my colleagues and I found ourselves switching conversationally quite a bit when we realised we could find the French quickly enough. I was also glad I had taken the trouble to read their regulations through in French and learn all the technical terms for my presentation in case of questions so I could relate them to their own terminology. I certainly recommend that even if working in English as it really helps common understanding.
A relative works in the UK Embassy in Morocco, where officially the diplomatic language is French, though the normal street language is a Moroccan version of Arabic. One of the demands in the recent riots was a switch to English as the first foreign language in schools, surely the most abstruse rioting demand ever. Ideally one speaks all three, but it's apparent that (a) English is, conveniently for us, gaining ground as the lingua franca even in countries with little historical association with Britain or the US and (b) it doesn't matter all that much since urban young people use earphones and automated interpretation. I used to have a useful second stream of income from translation, mostly for the EU, but it's almost dried up with the march of technology making human translation merely a matter of (poorly-paid) checking.
On a related note, trying to advise grandchildren on what careers to pick which won't be displaced by computers in 20 years in undeniably tricky. Trades involving handwork (e.g. gardening) are arguably a better bargain than most expensive university courses. The recent switch in UK Government commitment to supporting degrees OR technical handwork skills makes sense. Oxford sources tell me that demand for language degrees is shrivelling fast, down more than 50% over 10 years ago.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The financial benefit has to be balanced against the risk of your hotel being burned down.
That'll either be commercially or effectively gov't insured against.
Add to the contract, the state the place must be returned in. Standard on long term property rental.
Here is my discovery of the day - I knew the US was a country of have and have nots but
Roughly one in eight people in the United States receive food stamps, which average around $187 a month and cost the federal government about $8 billion monthly.
I've had something rumbling around in my head for a few weeks. If I were Leon, I'd ham it up as a unique insight. Not being Leon, I suspect that what I'm about to write is in no way original. If the latter is true, I'd appreciate anyone pointing me towards anything I can read about it.
Anyway, the thought: we make a real mistake when we compare Trump's dismantling of democracy and the rule of law with Nazism or even Fascism, because from our perspective in retrospect Nazism was so clearly evil and Fascism so clearly led to evil outcomes. It is not so clear, as least not to those on Trump's side right now, that what he is doing either is, or will lead to, evil. In fact it looks to them like the answer to their problems, otherwise they wouldn't support him.
And thus the comparison with Hitler is easily rejected: Hitler was evil, Trump might be a bit 'out there' but he isn't evil, so these libs are just frothing unnecessarily.
What is, I think, much more instructive, is to put ourselves in the minds of the average busy, stressed German or Italian in 1924, after the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome. Perhaps you've got a family to feed, or a busy job. You're not that engaged in politics. A leader comes along who so clearly speaks to you about the flaws and failures in the current political system, and offers a radical solution to them. You have a few misgivings about their methods, but those methods sort of align with your prejudices so you damp down any disquiet. The frog gently boils.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that evil regimes don't (usually) seem evil in advance. Indeed, if democratically elected, they seem like the answer to our problems, just as Trump does for many, including some on here.
So I think a much more interesting question than whether Trump is a Nazi is: what percentage risk is there that the USA develops into an evil regime over the next generation or two, either intentionally or otherwise? And what percentage risk is acceptable to a Trump supporter? What cognitive dissonance are they experiencing, and how can non-Trump supporters help make that cognitive dissonance more visible?
Looking from the outside, with USA's still unique military and cultural dominance, I'd say the tolerable percentage risk of going full Dr. Evil is incredibly low. For an American I can see the tolerable risk is higher, and the challenge all Americans face is to highlight the risk in the ways the situation over there could develop into something that even a Trump supporter would recognise as evil.
Anyway, I'm on a plane in 15 mins so may not reply for a bit, but if you know anyone writing about this I'd really appreciate you letting me know. Thanks.
The Bierkellar Putsch didn't lead to the Nazi regime. They took power rather more than nine years later.
Yes, a good result for D66 and again an example of a liberal party coming top to beat a party of the populist right.
As also happened in Canada earlier this year and in France in the 2022 French presidential and legislative elections.
Hence the better Reform do, the more there may be an opportunity for the LDs in the liberal centre if the next general election becomes more about cultural issues than the economy and the traditional battle between Conservatives and Labour (though the tax rising budget expected may see a shift back to that)
The Lib Dems’ appeal is a niche one - in very affluent seats.
The two seats that Reform won last night, are in parts of the country that are completely out of reach for the Lib Dem’s.
I've had something rumbling around in my head for a few weeks. If I were Leon, I'd ham it up as a unique insight. Not being Leon, I suspect that what I'm about to write is in no way original. If the latter is true, I'd appreciate anyone pointing me towards anything I can read about it.
Anyway, the thought: we make a real mistake when we compare Trump's dismantling of democracy and the rule of law with Nazism or even Fascism, because from our perspective in retrospect Nazism was so clearly evil and Fascism so clearly led to evil outcomes. It is not so clear, as least not to those on Trump's side right now, that what he is doing either is, or will lead to, evil. In fact it looks to them like the answer to their problems, otherwise they wouldn't support him.
And thus the comparison with Hitler is easily rejected: Hitler was evil, Trump might be a bit 'out there' but he isn't evil, so these libs are just frothing unnecessarily.
What is, I think, much more instructive, is to put ourselves in the minds of the average busy, stressed German or Italian in 1924, after the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome. Perhaps you've got a family to feed, or a busy job. You're not that engaged in politics. A leader comes along who so clearly speaks to you about the flaws and failures in the current political system, and offers a radical solution to them. You have a few misgivings about their methods, but those methods sort of align with your prejudices so you damp down any disquiet. The frog gently boils.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that evil regimes don't (usually) seem evil in advance. Indeed, if democratically elected, they seem like the answer to our problems, just as Trump does for many, including some on here.
So I think a much more interesting question than whether Trump is a Nazi is: what percentage risk is there that the USA develops into an evil regime over the next generation or two, either intentionally or otherwise? And what percentage risk is acceptable to a Trump supporter? What cognitive dissonance are they experiencing, and how can non-Trump supporters help make that cognitive dissonance more visible?
Looking from the outside, with USA's still unique military and cultural dominance, I'd say the tolerable percentage risk of going full Dr. Evil is incredibly low. For an American I can see the tolerable risk is higher, and the challenge all Americans face is to highlight the risk in the ways the situation over there could develop into something that even a Trump supporter would recognise as evil.
Anyway, I'm on a plane in 15 mins so may not reply for a bit, but if you know anyone writing about this I'd really appreciate you letting me know. Thanks.
The problem is incrementalism.
Trump is madly piling a bunch of levers, while the people he's brought along work on their own ideas.
Trump will be 82+ at the end of his term. The question is really where MAGA goes from here - who's the next King?
The survival of Peronism in Argentina is a possible parallel.
Melania isn't quite Evita though and of course Peronism has shifted to the nationalist left from the corporatist nationalist right where it was for much of the last century in Argentina and Milei convincingly beat it from the libertarian right earlier this week
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The hotels have a lot of power though, because the alternative is asylum seekers camping out under bridges in central London.
There are a very large number of hotels in the UK. Unless you can organise them as a cartel... And business has not been the best, recently.
The incentives are huge. Imagine you are the manager for an area of the chain -
"Hey, boss. I've arranged a contract where we get paid X a year for 3 years. By the time the costs are cut, the stable profit will be double what we could make if the market was good. And it's not good."
The problem is that the people in government seem to be crap at negotiating.
Remember there are now rules about the maximum percentage of asylum seekers who can be in any area - no more than 2% population or something like that. So they can't just pick any hotel.
There's absolutely no shortage of struggling hotels in the UK. The point is, that it would be trivial for a good negotiator to offer the following
- Pay a massive discount on the usual rates - the flip side is that costs, for the owner, drop massively. And the income stream is as stable, essentially, as the income on government bonds. Zero risk.
That adds up, if done right, to an improved profit for any given hotel. It shouldn't be vaguely close to the vast amounts paid.
Wot - centrist/progressive party makes huge gains at the expense nasty populists? Imagine if that becomes a thing....
To an extent, what happened was that parties who were in the coalition government lost seats to ideologically similar parties who were not. So, the PVV (hard right populists) lost 11 seats, but 2 similar parties gained seats: Ja21 up 8, FvD up 4. The NSC were wiped out, losing 20, but the CDA were up 13. The NSC began as a CDA split.
D66 did great (+17), but their gains were partly from the left (GL/PvdA -5, SP -2, Volt -1). So, maybe half the D66 gains were from the NSC collapse?
The hard right vote was similar in size, but splintered, while the centrist-progressives made some gains from the centre-right and centre-left.
Is any government anywhere popular right now? There must be some, surely?
Meloni's in Italy, Carney's in Canada and Luxon's in NZ and Albanese's in Australia are still reasonably popular too
I've had something rumbling around in my head for a few weeks. If I were Leon, I'd ham it up as a unique insight. Not being Leon, I suspect that what I'm about to write is in no way original. If the latter is true, I'd appreciate anyone pointing me towards anything I can read about it.
Anyway, the thought: we make a real mistake when we compare Trump's dismantling of democracy and the rule of law with Nazism or even Fascism, because from our perspective in retrospect Nazism was so clearly evil and Fascism so clearly led to evil outcomes. It is not so clear, as least not to those on Trump's side right now, that what he is doing either is, or will lead to, evil. In fact it looks to them like the answer to their problems, otherwise they wouldn't support him.
And thus the comparison with Hitler is easily rejected: Hitler was evil, Trump might be a bit 'out there' but he isn't evil, so these libs are just frothing unnecessarily.
What is, I think, much more instructive, is to put ourselves in the minds of the average busy, stressed German or Italian in 1924, after the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome. Perhaps you've got a family to feed, or a busy job. You're not that engaged in politics. A leader comes along who so clearly speaks to you about the flaws and failures in the current political system, and offers a radical solution to them. You have a few misgivings about their methods, but those methods sort of align with your prejudices so you damp down any disquiet. The frog gently boils.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that evil regimes don't (usually) seem evil in advance. Indeed, if democratically elected, they seem like the answer to our problems, just as Trump does for many, including some on here.
So I think a much more interesting question than whether Trump is a Nazi is: what percentage risk is there that the USA develops into an evil regime over the next generation or two, either intentionally or otherwise? And what percentage risk is acceptable to a Trump supporter? What cognitive dissonance are they experiencing, and how can non-Trump supporters help make that cognitive dissonance more visible?
Looking from the outside, with USA's still unique military and cultural dominance, I'd say the tolerable percentage risk of going full Dr. Evil is incredibly low. For an American I can see the tolerable risk is higher, and the challenge all Americans face is to highlight the risk in the ways the situation over there could develop into something that even a Trump supporter would recognise as evil.
Anyway, I'm on a plane in 15 mins so may not reply for a bit, but if you know anyone writing about this I'd really appreciate you letting me know. Thanks.
The problem is incrementalism.
Trump is madly piling a bunch of levers, while the people he's brought along work on their own ideas.
Trump will be 82+ at the end of his term. The question is really where MAGA goes from here - who's the next King?
The survival of Peronism in Argentina is a possible parallel.
Agree, but (I hope) a more immediate question is: what needs to happen for Trump voters to see that having a Mad King is a bad idea for them personally and so they stop voting for him or his successor whilst they still can?
Agreed Peronism is a useful parallel for how these cults sustain themselves. Many of the communist regimes too.
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The financial benefit has to be balanced against the risk of your hotel being burned down.
Most of the hotels being used would struggle to get more than a handful of free market guests.
The one in Leicester is noted for its wildlife, mostly rats and bed bugs.
And now they have a single customer willing to pay the nightly rack rate for every room for a couple of years, and they don’t care about the restaurant or the pool or the gym.
The issue is the government being crap at negotiating contracts, the hotelier can now finance his whole refurb with the cheque the government has just written, it’s a total no-brainer in his eyes.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.
Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
The roadblock is the GOP refusing to negotiate. The polling also agrees with this.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
The GOP doesn't have 60 senators so it doesn't control every branch of government.
Yes, a good result for D66 and again an example of a liberal party coming top to beat a party of the populist right.
As also happened in Canada earlier this year and in France in the 2022 French presidential and legislative elections.
Hence the better Reform do, the more there may be an opportunity for the LDs in the liberal centre if the next general election becomes more about cultural issues than the economy and the traditional battle between Conservatives and Labour (though the tax rising budget expected may see a shift back to that)
The Lib Dems’ appeal is a niche one - in very affluent seats.
The two seats that Reform won last night, are in parts of the country that are completely out of reach for the Lib Dem’s.
Yes they need to broaden their appeal to C1 and C2 majority seats from AB heavy seats to really stop Reform
This week, green power provided a huge percentage of UK's energy use
Also this week, near zero small boat crossings
Proof, as if it were needed, that burning fossil fuels causes illegal immigration
A mild and breezy winter will help the government in all sorts of ways.
Latest ECMWF deterministic forecast does have a Scandinavian high at day 10 which wasn't in the forecast yesterday. Will be interesting to see if that's still in subsequent forecasts.
Have the Express rolled out the first, "we're going to be buried in snow," story of the winter yet?
Along with the Mail the Express will be preoccupied with explaining how it got the Reeves story wrong and apologising at length.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Do REALLY believe that? I mean, generally you are far brighter than parroting the Speaker's bollocks...
Both sides prefer the shutdown to compromise.
It was and will be the same irrespective of which is the majority and which is the minority.
That simply isn't true. The shutdown is a confection entirely cooked up by Trump Republicans.
To some people its always the GOP's fault, whether they are in a majority or a minority.
To some people its always the Dem's fault, whether they are in a majority or a minority.
I would suggest that it might be the political system's fault with both the 60 senator requirement plus the primary system producing ever more extreme candidates,
The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:
Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.
Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.
What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?
As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?
Actions have consequences
Better hours in hospitality is problematic. The whole point is their peak is everyone else's leisure. A restaurant that opened 9 to 5 and closed for an hour at lunchtime would not have many customers.
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
Block booking a hotel 24/366 is an owners dream, in any time. You have a defined income, massively reduced coasts (shut the fancy stuff). Which is why they *should* have been booked at a massive discount.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
The financial benefit has to be balanced against the risk of your hotel being burned down.
Most of the hotels being used would struggle to get more than a handful of free market guests.
The one in Leicester is noted for its wildlife, mostly rats and bed bugs.
And now they have a single customer willing to pay the nightly rack rate for every room for a couple of years, and they don’t care about the restaurant or the pool or the gym.
The issue is the government being crap at negotiating contracts, the hotelier can now finance his whole refurb with the cheque the government has just written, it’s a total no-brainer in his eyes.
It is consistent, throughout almost every level of government, that contract management with private companies, is atrocious. Builders, hoteliers, IT providers, defence contractors etc. see the narks coming from a mile off.
None of this is helped by public sector managers focusing on things other than the two that matter, price, and quality.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Do REALLY believe that? I mean, generally you are far brighter than parroting the Speaker's bollocks...
Both sides prefer the shutdown to compromise.
It was and will be the same irrespective of which is the majority and which is the minority.
That simply isn't true. The shutdown is a confection entirely cooked up by Trump Republicans.
To some people its always the GOP's fault, whether they are in a majority or a minority.
To some people its always the Dem's fault, whether they are in a majority or a minority.
I would suggest that it might be the political system's fault with both the 60 senator requirement plus the primary system producing ever more extreme candidates,
The 60 senator requirement can be removed with one vote of the Senate in which the GOP have a majority. I.e. it’s not a requirement.
There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.
Eh?
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
The GOP controls every branch of government. Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.
Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
Republicans will no doubt argue that it's a problem caused by the (not in power) Dems but I suspect most people blame whoever is in government for any disruption like this, every time.
Comments
Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.
https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354
America’s rig count, which is an indicator of future activity, has dropped from 482 to 420 since Trump moved into the White House.
Telegraph
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polari#:~:text=Polari (from Italian parlare 'to,navy sailors, criminals and prostitutes.
A Gulf between what he promised and what he delivered.
2024 international tourism:
UK
receipts $84bn
expenditure $119bn
France
receipts $77bn
expenditure $60bn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings
Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.
At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
My one foray into business with French colleagues was interesting in that we were told that they all spoke English but in fact we found that some of them weren't great, and one of my colleagues and I found ourselves switching conversationally quite a bit when we realised we could find the French quickly enough. I was also glad I had taken the trouble to read their regulations through in French and learn all the technical terms for my presentation in case of questions so I could relate them to their own terminology. I certainly recommend that even if working in English as it really helps common understanding.
Venray was easily won by the PVV in 2023 but their advantage is likely to be lower this time and there’s apparently only around 24,000 votes to be counted there .
The seat totals are unlikely to change so 26 each but the vote share is important as to who gets to go first in forming a coalition .
Although the D66 surge came late so less impact on those postal votes but they do tend to skew to the more progressive side so very unlikely the PVV can top the vote share .
(Presumably this is just data point 94000 on the "you can't buck the market" list.)
https://bsky.app/profile/theatlantic.com/post/3m4h35yvpid2n
One aspect is how the AI bubble is masking how poorly the rest of the US economy is doing.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06022/
It didn't take him long to fetch his little bag of tools;
I held his hat and coat and let him have my book of rules.
Out of the bedroom door, he looked and smiled:
Come inside and meet your wife and child.
My heart, it leapt with joy, I could see it was a boy
For he had his ukelele in his hand.
George Formby reminds us of a time when fathers were kept out of the delivery room, and why he was the BBC's most banned artiste.
The Senate needs 60 votes.
Also this week, near zero small boat crossings
Proof, as if it were needed, that burning fossil fuels causes illegal immigration
A few unconnected thoughts this morning - on language (or the lack of it), the fact the word "holibobs" has entered normal parlance suggests the English language is finished. As far as trying to be a polyglot, the maitre d' at the swiss lakeside hotel where Mrs Stodge and I took our first foreign holiday spoke seven languages fluently - my attempts at schoolboy German were treated with a patronising smile as he informed me his English, French, German, Italian, Russian, Romansch and Swedish were probably better than my English.
One (or rather seven) ways to feel inadequate.
While the success of the Conservatives in a straight fight with Reform (60-40) in a Welsh community council by-election might be a straw to clutch, they had a decent result in Barnet in a seat where, by all accounts, the kitchen sink has been in residence for the last two or three weeks but the size of the Reform vote suggests (as it did in Plaistow last month) the extent of the Reform challenge in London might be being under-estimated.
The by-election in Worcestershire, however, showed Reform aren't impervious to tactical voting and that may be an issue for them as 30-35% usually wins against competing opponents but not always if you're facing only one serious opponent. I suspect Reform don't have the resources to campaign everywhere so looking at where they do put in effort will be significant.
The Dutch election has three "gemeenten" (polling districts?) still to report - two in Limburg and one in South Holland. I suspect they won't alter the overall result. Jetten seems to think a four party coalition consisting of D66, VVD, GL/PVDA and CDA is possible but a lot will depend on whether the VVD (which has moved "right" in recent times) will be able to work with a post-Timmermans GL/PVDA (there's some history there).
I fear we will hear progressively bad news from Jamaica as areas in the west of the island are finally reached - it's fortunate Kingston Airport is back operational and aid can now arrive but getting it to where it's needed is the next challenge.
Actions have consequences
Its not a law of nature or economics.
Continually leaking £30bn out of the country, year after year, decade after decade, eventually you end up wondering why so many of the country's assets are foreign owned.
And shouldn't be surprising that we spend more abroad given - like the Germans - many people want to go somewhere reliably sunny on holiday. It's a struggle to do that domestically.
Our expenditure is $119bn Vs $120bn for Germany.
I think this is a non-story. As others have said, being able to spend money on foreign holidays is a positive sign, even if it needs to be balanced out elsewhere.
The 9M729 cruise missile would have lit up like a Christmas tree at American intelligence stations.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1984170389895852279
Oddly, they don't seem bothered by this one.
"I'm glad to be out," Larry Bushart told me after more than a month behind bars for posting an anti-Trump meme. Bushart and his wife wanted to refrain from commenting further until they meet with their lawyer; some First Amendment experts say Bushart may have a strong civil case
https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1984074205290492246
Easier is to block book the hotel to the Home Office for a guaranteed income stream.
It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
All her friends report the same - huge numbers of applications for legitimate, minimum wage jobs.
There is a real problem here and it seems to be growing.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/young-people-not-working-studying-job-hunting-rbjfdggbm?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily Briefing - Friday 28th February 2025&utm_term=audience_BEST_OF_TIMES
The problem is if you want some warmth and sunshine (almost guaranteed) you can wait for climate change to bring it to the UK or you can go to France, Italy, Spain, Greece or wherever which will be fine until conditions become unbearable in high summer sue to the heat, forest fires, lack of water etc in a few decades (apparently).
The advent of relatively inexpensive transport to warmer places has had the effect you'd expect it to have and the figures for Denmark and Sweden might be enlightening.
The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
That they weren't is an example of why the government is so bad at spending money - feast or famine only. And then politicians wonder why ordinary people think that their taxes are wasted.
Bromsgrove South (Worcestershire) Council by-election:
LibDem: 51.9% (+20.3)
Ref: 33.4% (-1.5)
Con: 11.3% (-5.8)
Lab: 3.4% (-4.1)
No Grn (-5.5) or Ind (-3.4) as previous.
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform
It looks like the non-Reform vote swung behind the LDs, taking the seat despite only a tiny drop in the Reform share, which augurs very well
Have the Express rolled out the first, "we're going to be buried in snow," story of the winter yet?
They somehow think refusing to address this dilemma will make it go away. Except, tomorrow, large swathes of voters lose their food stamps and SNAP. That's going to placate them. Not.
https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/
Which reports 550, down 35year on year.
With a fall in oil rigs partially matched by an increase in gas rigs.
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2025
Overall it looks like a big drop during covid with the recovery peaking in early 2023 followed by a steady decline:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-rigs
Not to mention the cultural belief in the UK that a holiday *has* to have sun. Hence the popularity of desert islands a short flight away.
The reluctance of immigrants to the UK to take holidays in the UK has been noted. It's not fear of racism - it's simply that they regard the idea of walking around the Lake District vs beach in Turkey as a no-brainer.
The airlines want the CR to be passed.
It was and will be the same irrespective of which is the majority and which is the minority.
"Well, it depends on what it is. We've got a criminal practice that takes up most of our time."
Its origins are obscure but I believe there is some evidence it evolved as a kind of lingua france amongst the pirates and privateers plying their trade around the Barbary Coast a few centuries back.
I worked in a bookies during the holidays - marking the board for what was then Mecca Bookmakers. Fortunately, I never had to work during term time but I can understand in the era of student loans and higher living costs the need for students to get second or even third jobs and this is one of the big changes we now see - more people with second or third jobs to make ends meet.
The problem is if you have two jobs, it means someone else can't get one job so you have a group of people working all the hours God sends to survive and those who can't get on the ladder and I suspect those with experience will hoover up the vacancies rather than those with the aptitude but no marketable skills.
I wonder sometimes if some of those who evade fares on the Underground are doing so simply because they can't afford to pay the cost of travel (I'm sure that's not true of the majority) on top of their rent, food and everything else from what they earn. We forget sometimes (and I've only had a glimpse of it in my life) how hard it really is for some people who have very little to survive.
Not far from us is a small block of flats which was built in the early 90s and designed for single people and childless couples - now the one bedroom flats have whole families living in them because that's all they can afford - I know one of the tenants, he works at our local Tesco's but has a second job at a warehouse and his wife works and they are trying to bring up two small children in a one bedroom flat. It's stories like this which make me angry - we could and should be so much better than this. Yes, it's not absolute poverty by any measure but the levels of relative poverty in this country are a disgrace.
Meanwhile, airlines and the civil service union in Washington are telling them to pass it.
Roughly one in eight people in the United States receive food stamps, which average around $187 a month and cost the federal government about $8 billion monthly.
Anyway, the thought: we make a real mistake when we compare Trump's dismantling of democracy and the rule of law with Nazism or even Fascism, because from our perspective in retrospect Nazism was so clearly evil and Fascism so clearly led to evil outcomes. It is not so clear, as least not to those on Trump's side right now, that what he is doing either is, or will lead to, evil. In fact it looks to them like the answer to their problems, otherwise they wouldn't support him.
And thus the comparison with Hitler is easily rejected: Hitler was evil, Trump might be a bit 'out there' but he isn't evil, so these libs are just frothing unnecessarily.
What is, I think, much more instructive, is to put ourselves in the minds of the average busy, stressed German or Italian in 1924, after the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome. Perhaps you've got a family to feed, or a busy job. You're not that engaged in politics. A leader comes along who so clearly speaks to you about the flaws and failures in the current political system, and offers a radical solution to them. You have a few misgivings about their methods, but those methods sort of align with your prejudices so you damp down any disquiet. The frog gently boils.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that evil regimes don't (usually) seem evil in advance. Indeed, if democratically elected, they seem like the answer to our problems, just as Trump does for many, including some on here.
So I think a much more interesting question than whether Trump is a Nazi is: what percentage risk is there that the USA develops into an evil regime over the next generation or two, either intentionally or otherwise? And what percentage risk is acceptable to a Trump supporter? What cognitive dissonance are they experiencing, and how can non-Trump supporters help make that cognitive dissonance more visible?
Looking from the outside, with USA's still unique military and cultural dominance, I'd say the tolerable percentage risk of going full Dr. Evil is incredibly low. For an American I can see the tolerable risk is higher, and the challenge all Americans face is to highlight the risk in the ways the situation over there could develop into something that even a Trump supporter would recognise as evil.
Anyway, I'm on a plane in 15 mins so may not reply for a bit, but if you know anyone writing about this I'd really appreciate you letting me know. Thanks.
The incentives are huge. Imagine you are the manager for an area of the chain -
"Hey, boss. I've arranged a contract where we get paid X a year for 3 years. By the time the costs are cut, the stable profit will be double what we could make if the market was good. And it's not good."
The problem is that the people in government seem to be crap at negotiating.
Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
As also happened in Canada earlier this year and in France in the 2022 French presidential and legislative elections.
Hence the better Reform do, the more there may be an opportunity for the LDs in the liberal centre if the next general election becomes more about cultural issues than the economy and the traditional battle between Conservatives and Labour (though the tax rising budget expected may see a shift back to that)
Trump is madly piling a bunch of levers, while the people he's brought along work on their own ideas.
Trump will be 82+ at the end of his term. The question is really where MAGA goes from here - who's the next King?
The survival of Peronism in Argentina is a possible parallel.
The one in Leicester is noted for its wildlife, mostly rats and bed bugs.
Incidentally, what places like Turkey & Bulgaria do, is to ban measuring water quality near resorts.
Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
On a related note, trying to advise grandchildren on what careers to pick which won't be displaced by computers in 20 years in undeniably tricky. Trades involving handwork (e.g. gardening) are arguably a better bargain than most expensive university courses. The recent switch in UK Government commitment to supporting degrees OR technical handwork skills makes sense. Oxford sources tell me that demand for language degrees is shrivelling fast, down more than 50% over 10 years ago.
Let them eat cake, eh Donald?
The two seats that Reform won last night, are in parts of the country that are completely out of reach for the Lib Dem’s.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze6r2zk5d3o
- Pay a massive discount on the usual rates
- the flip side is that costs, for the owner, drop massively. And the income stream is as stable, essentially, as the income on government bonds. Zero risk.
That adds up, if done right, to an improved profit for any given hotel. It shouldn't be vaguely close to the vast amounts paid.
Agreed Peronism is a useful parallel for how these cults sustain themselves. Many of the communist regimes too.
The issue is the government being crap at negotiating contracts, the hotelier can now finance his whole refurb with the cheque the government has just written, it’s a total no-brainer in his eyes.
So probably.
They will also have a bit on Andrew, I expect.
To some people its always the Dem's fault, whether they are in a majority or a minority.
I would suggest that it might be the political system's fault with both the 60 senator requirement plus the primary system producing ever more extreme candidates,
None of this is helped by public sector managers focusing on things other than the two that matter, price, and quality.