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Am I a f*cking idiot? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,759
edited 7:43AM in General
Am I a f*cking idiot? – politicalbetting.com

President Trump said he has not “really thought about” a third term in office but that he would “love to” run again in 2028, while also pointing to senior cabinet members as potential candidates https://t.co/1R5W5BCXgp

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    This is one reason why I was so astonished Trump won in 2024 (leaving aside the question of how free or fair an election can be when state governors are openly talking of flouting the voters' wishes or the main media organisation is deliberately falsifying the news). That, and the fact he was promising to make everyone poorer, was in my view enough to rule him out. The Republicans themselves after all only thought differently because of his control of their political machine.

    It's not even as though he tried to hide what he was doing.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,382
    We're going to get a Putin/Medvedev situation I reckon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    edited 7:51AM
    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    He can barely walk as it is. His behaviour in Japan would, if it had been Biden, have been sufficient grounds to invoke the 25th.

    But the question is not whether the senile old creep is running, but whether *any* likely Republican candidate will allow free and fair elections. Most of the senior party figures are either as corrupt and vile as Trump (Vance) or cowed into silence (Haley).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534
    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Read the article, Trump running or not isn't the issue, will the likes of the Trump crime family, Vance, and Miller give up power after the shithousery/corruption they have engaged in?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,547
    Erm, yes. Otoh perhaps we might be spared more Hollywood shmaltz where the underdog character (although lead actor) lectures an authority figure about the sanctity of the US Constitution.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    Eabhal said:

    We're going to get a Putin/Medvedev situation I reckon.

    Won't be comparable. Putin was not only much younger than Trump but still fully compos mentis. Trump is going to be 83 and already behaves as though his mental age has regressed to 8 months three days.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,412
    Put yourself in the shoes of a Republican operative.

    First, you believe the other lot are going to utterly destroy society, in a way that goes beyond normal political disagreement. You believe that because you have let your brain be filled with the sort of slop social media spews out all the time.

    Because of that, you have done the whole "destroy the village to save it" thing with the American state. And you kind of know at the back of your mind that, if anyone else is in power, they will ask you awkward questions.

    And it's not as if the American electoral process is that robust at the best of times, is it?

    But I'm sure it will be fine... eventually.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    And on the substantive question TSE:

    You do apparently rate The Last Jedi as a film.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,520
    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.
  • Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Agreed but make no mistake Trump is not a challenge to democracy in the same league as Keir Starmer, now he IS dangerous
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,775
    I wonder what could cause them to think mass public disorder next year is likely?



    No way are the mid terms going to be fair elections. There will be voter intimidation and suppression like we have never seen before.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,746
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    We're going to get a Putin/Medvedev situation I reckon.

    Won't be comparable. Putin was not only much younger than Trump but still fully compos mentis. Trump is going to be 83 and already behaves as though his mental age has regressed to 8 months three days.
    My grandson has, at 8 months, learned to say "mummy" and "no". He's catching up fast.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,856
    edited 7:55AM
    I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a fucking idiot’
    Care to set it out so we don't join you in the 'idiot' category?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    Foxy said:

    I wonder what could cause them to think mass public disorder next year is likely?



    No way are the mid terms going to be fair elections. There will be voter intimidation and suppression like we have never seen before.

    That's not quite true. It will be like the ones we saw in Zimbabwe.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,942

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Agreed but make no mistake Trump is not a challenge to democracy in the same league as Keir Starmer, now he IS dangerous
    Grow up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,834

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,266
    No topic: yes

    Previous topic. Loved the Queen. Want to abolish the whole lot of them now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    kinabalu said:

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
    How much the voting system has been rigged.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,412

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Read the article, Trump running or not isn't the issue, will the likes of the Trump crime family, Vance, and Miller give up power after the shithousery/corruption they have engaged in?
    Besides, there is nothing that sinister courtiers like better than a figurehead who isn't dead yet, but lets the "experts" get on with the hard work of actually ruling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,834
    The midterms are vital. They'll tell us a lot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534
    Battlebus said:

    I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a fucking idiot’
    Care to set it out so we don't join you in the 'idiot' category?
    The reason I bet Trump would win in 2024, the economy.

    By 2028 the economy I expect will be more buggered than a gay porn star on OnlyFans and the Dems win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,220
    edited 7:58AM

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Read the article, Trump running or not isn't the issue, will the likes of the Trump crime family, Vance, and Miller give up power after the shithousery/corruption they have engaged in?
    They have made untold billions manipulating the markets with insider information. A quiet tithe of those billions will be quite enough to manipulate enough of the voters (by persuasion or exclusion) to win another close election.

    I doubt it will be Trump himself, but someone from the billionaire class, put forward to prevent an investigation into how they have turned democracy into kleptocracy, or more accurately a kakistocracy if it is one of the Trump offspring.

    The alternative - of losing - risks having billonaires hanging from lamp-posts by piano wire and confiscation of all their assets to resume paying for food stamps.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,033
    edited 7:59AM
    Good morning

    I just don't see it not only from the constitutional problem but his age

    I was moving our daughter into her new home yesterday and missed the Rachel Reeves story

    Just another problem for her even if the Estate Agents failed to advise her but as @DavidL said on the last thread the monthly income is considerable and no NI

    As a matter of interest is there a penalty and if so what is it as I haven't heard of the need for a license to rent. ?

    Not as serious as Rayner but just another story adding to the general opinion of how out of touch labour are
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,431
    Yet another example of the strategic vulnerability of the western world:

    Carmakers in the EU are “days away” from closing production lines, the industry has warned, as a crisis over computer chip supplies from China escalates.

    The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) issued an urgent warning on Wednesday saying its members, which include BMW, Fiat, Peugeot and Volkswagen, were now working on “reserve stocks but supplies are dwindling”.

    “Assembly line stoppages might only be days away. We urge all involved to redouble their efforts to find a diplomatic way out of this critical situation,” said its director general, Sigrid de Vries.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/29/europe-carmakers-china-computer-chip

    Doubtless Labour politicians think the answer is more welfarism.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,177
    Agreed. You are a fucking idiot. Trump won't run in 2028 but he will throw everything at keeping the Republicans in power. As you say, the Trump crime family will face ruin if the extent of their grift were ever properly investigated. Outcomes range from standard issue voter suppression to invocation of the insurrection act and widespread unrest with civil war as a tail risk.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,220

    Good morning

    I just don't see it not only from the constitutional problem but his age

    I was moving our daughter into her new home yesterday and missed the Rachel Reeves story

    Just another problem for her even if the Estate Agents failed to advise her but as @DavidL said on the last thread the monthly income is considerable and no NI

    As a matter of interest is there a penalty and if so what is it as I haven't heard of the need for a license to rent. ?

    Not as serious as Rayner but just another story adding to the general opinion of how out of touch labour are

    AS I said just as the new thread was put up, the only interesting point about the story is "Who dobbed her in?"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,690
    edited 8:03AM
    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    He can barely walk in the right direction in 2025.

    https://x.com/youranonnews/status/1983159687077081515?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,861
    Yes, I think your concerns are justified, TSE, and that free and fair elections in the USA are unlikely for the foreseeable future.

    It's a shame but all the indications are that this is the case.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835

    Agreed. You are a fucking idiot. Trump won't run in 2028 but he will throw everything at keeping the Republicans in power. As you say, the Trump crime family will face ruin if the extent of their grift were ever properly investigated. Outcomes range from standard issue voter suppression to invocation of the insurrection act and widespread unrest with civil war as a tail risk.

    He has just appealed his criminal conviction in New York as well, claiming immunity, a biased judge, falsified court paperwork and something random to do with tax law.

    It's the whiniest and most self-serving nonsense I've read since the last time I had an email from Centrica.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,431

    Yet another example of the strategic vulnerability of the western world:

    Carmakers in the EU are “days away” from closing production lines, the industry has warned, as a crisis over computer chip supplies from China escalates.

    The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) issued an urgent warning on Wednesday saying its members, which include BMW, Fiat, Peugeot and Volkswagen, were now working on “reserve stocks but supplies are dwindling”.

    “Assembly line stoppages might only be days away. We urge all involved to redouble their efforts to find a diplomatic way out of this critical situation,” said its director general, Sigrid de Vries.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/29/europe-carmakers-china-computer-chip

    Doubtless Labour politicians think the answer is more welfarism.

    Biden was right to invest in increasing domestic production.

    The Dems then chose to ignore how successful the strategy was becoming and instead obsess about abortion.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,266
    On topic, surely the more prescient question is about the 2026 Midterm elections rather than the 2028 General Election.

    Of course he will invoke the Insurrection Act. And arrest some Governors.

    America is over. Hasn't that been clear for a while?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534
    I saw this at 6am and laughed so hard and woke up the entire hotel.

    My new Apple Watch lighting up to say 'it looks like you're working out' when I'm in the middle of a particularly challenging poo, marks a new low in my life

    https://x.com/fesshole/status/1983570781847085096
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,147
    edited 8:03AM
    Trump did at least acknowledge that he might not be the candidate in 2028 for the first time and that Rubio or Vance would also be good GOP nominees. Remember that Presidential and Congressional elections are also managed at the state level not the federal level. The Electoral College too meets in each state before sending results centrally
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835

    I saw this at 6am and laughed so hard and woke up the entire hotel.

    My new Apple Watch lighting up to say 'it looks like you're working out' when I'm in the middle of a particularly challenging poo, marks a new low in my life

    https://x.com/fesshole/status/1983570781847085096

    Always said smart watches were a shit idea.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    edited 8:03AM

    Battlebus said:

    I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a fucking idiot’
    Care to set it out so we don't join you in the 'idiot' category?
    The reason I bet Trump would win in 2024, the economy.

    By 2028 the economy I expect will be more buggered than a gay porn star on OnlyFans and the Dems win.
    The Dems still haven’t come to terms with why they lost last time. To Donald F*****g Trump!

    See Kamala Harris on her book tour trying to blame everyone else, see AOC getting in an online fight with an advocate for women’s sports being for women, see Mamdani and his rent controls and state-owned groceries, see Democrat Senators describing food stamps as ‘leverage’ even if it means people starving… That’s all in the last 72 hours.

    If they can regroup and find a sensible candidate, and there are a few decent Dem Governors out there, then they have a chance.

    I’m betting on Rubio and Vance as the GOP ticket, but not sure which way around.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,220
    kinabalu said:

    The midterms are vital. They'll tell us a lot.

    They'll tell the billionaires where their efforts need more work.

    And how much more of their ill-gotten gains they have to re-apply.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    Sandpit said:

    Battlebus said:

    I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a fucking idiot’
    Care to set it out so we don't join you in the 'idiot' category?
    The reason I bet Trump would win in 2024, the economy.

    By 2028 the economy I expect will be more buggered than a gay porn star on OnlyFans and the Dems win.
    The Dems still haven’t come to terms with why they lost last time.

    See Kamala Harris on her book tour trying to blame everyone else, see AOC getting in an online fight with an advocate for women’s sports being for women, see Mamdani and his rent controls and state-owned groceries, see Democrat Senators describing food stamps as ‘leverage’ even if it means people starving… That’s all in the last 72 hours.

    If they can regroup and find a sensible candidate, and there are a few decent Dem Governors out there, then they have a chance.

    I’m betting on Rubio and Vance as the GOP ticket, but not sure which way around.
    Vance will not agree to be Vice-President to somebody other than Trump. He would see it as stagnation. If Rubio is the nominee I would expect one of Trump's sons to be the running mate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534
    edited 8:05AM
    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,803

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    He can barely walk in the right direction in 2025.

    https://x.com/youranonnews/status/1983159687077081515?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    I reckon it's at least a couple of decades since he last ran, but, to be fair, it's not easy in heels
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,147
    edited 8:08AM

    Agreed. You are a fucking idiot. Trump won't run in 2028 but he will throw everything at keeping the Republicans in power. As you say, the Trump crime family will face ruin if the extent of their grift were ever properly investigated. Outcomes range from standard issue voter suppression to invocation of the insurrection act and widespread unrest with civil war as a tail risk.

    Trump might do everything to keep himself or his sons in power in 2028, he couldn't give a toss though if Vance or Rubio lose to say Buttigieg (they were both anti Trump in early 2016 remember).

    Remember he was a Democrat in the 1990s, the GOP was always just a vehicle for his ego and desire to be President and protectionist and nationalist views
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,558
    kinabalu said:

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
    Why people feel overlooked by their leadership and vote for Trump
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855

    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.

    Do you prefer QTWTAIY?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835

    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.

    QTWTAIN

    QTWTAIN

    QTWTAIN!!!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,844

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Read the article, Trump running or not isn't the issue, will the likes of the Trump crime family, Vance, and Miller give up power after the shithousery/corruption they have engaged in?
    They have made untold billions manipulating the markets with insider information. A quiet tithe of those billions will be quite enough to manipulate enough of the voters (by persuasion or exclusion) to win another close election.

    I doubt it will be Trump himself, but someone from the billionaire class, put forward to prevent an investigation into how they have turned democracy into kleptocracy, or more accurately a kakistocracy if it is one of the Trump offspring.

    The alternative - of losing - risks having billonaires hanging from lamp-posts by piano wire and confiscation of all their assets to resume paying for food stamps.
    It’s not even about the money, for these people - in the sense of enjoying their ill-gotten gains. The money is simply a way of keeping score. And, it’s timeless.

    The whole mentality of people who can never be satisfied, despite enjoying great wealth, status, and power, is fascinating. Alexander's generals could not be satisfied with ruling enormous territories and living in splendour, but squandered vast resources (and their own lives), trying to conquer the whole lot. Caesar and Octavian were simply the most successful of the multimillionaire aristocrats who pillaged the Mediterranean and Gaul, in order to be first man in Rome (and the vast majority ended up dying violently in the process). Even after Octavian won, his dynasty spent a century murdering each other, and potential rivals, before they died out (Nero murdered his mother, brother, and two wives).

    So, a billionaire might be reclining on his yacht in Monaco harbour, a mistress young enough to be his granddaughter by his side, and then quite suddenly, someone sails into the harbour in an even bigger boat, and his enjoyment is destroyed, as he worries about the size of his ... yacht. What's a billion, when the other man has two billion? What's ten billion, when there are people with fortunes that exceed one hundred billion? Getting more money is just keeping score, at this point.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,412

    Good morning

    I just don't see it not only from the constitutional problem but his age

    I was moving our daughter into her new home yesterday and missed the Rachel Reeves story

    Just another problem for her even if the Estate Agents failed to advise her but as @DavidL said on the last thread the monthly income is considerable and no NI

    As a matter of interest is there a penalty and if so what is it as I haven't heard of the need for a license to rent. ?

    Not as serious as Rayner but just another story adding to the general opinion of how out of touch labour are

    AS I said just as the new thread was put up, the only interesting point about the story is "Who dobbed her in?"
    A gothic castle, full of people who don't really trust each other but are desperate to win, faced with a daily routine of absurd challenges...

    I'm not saying that Claudia Winkleman is to blame, but it wouldn't shock me. If not her, then [REDACTED SPOILER].
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,746
    ydoethur said:

    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.

    QTWTAIN

    QTWTAIN

    QTWTAIN!!!

    Taking one for the team. Admirable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,220
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    We're going to get a Putin/Medvedev situation I reckon.

    Won't be comparable. Putin was not only much younger than Trump but still fully compos mentis. Trump is going to be 83 and already behaves as though his mental age has regressed to 8 months three days.
    Plus Medvedev was easily bought off with a vat of vodka.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,147
    Sandpit said:

    Battlebus said:

    I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a fucking idiot’
    Care to set it out so we don't join you in the 'idiot' category?
    The reason I bet Trump would win in 2024, the economy.

    By 2028 the economy I expect will be more buggered than a gay porn star on OnlyFans and the Dems win.
    The Dems still haven’t come to terms with why they lost last time. To Donald F*****g Trump!

    See Kamala Harris on her book tour trying to blame everyone else, see AOC getting in an online fight with an advocate for women’s sports being for women, see Mamdani and his rent controls and state-owned groceries, see Democrat Senators describing food stamps as ‘leverage’ even if it means people starving… That’s all in the last 72 hours.

    If they can regroup and find a sensible candidate, and there are a few decent Dem Governors out there, then they have a chance.

    I’m betting on Rubio and Vance as the GOP ticket, but not sure which way around.
    Trump has an approval rating of 39%, unless that improves any Democrat could win in 2028 and the Democrats likely win Congress next year too
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.

    QTWTAIN

    QTWTAIN

    QTWTAIN!!!

    Taking one for the team. Admirable.
    Well, I'm about to fly home after a rather lovely holiday in Dubrovnik. Any comeback will miss me for several hours.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855

    Yet another example of the strategic vulnerability of the western world:

    Carmakers in the EU are “days away” from closing production lines, the industry has warned, as a crisis over computer chip supplies from China escalates.

    The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) issued an urgent warning on Wednesday saying its members, which include BMW, Fiat, Peugeot and Volkswagen, were now working on “reserve stocks but supplies are dwindling”.

    “Assembly line stoppages might only be days away. We urge all involved to redouble their efforts to find a diplomatic way out of this critical situation,” said its director general, Sigrid de Vries.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/29/europe-carmakers-china-computer-chip

    Doubtless Labour politicians think the answer is more welfarism.

    It appears that lessons weren’t learned from the pandemic, when exactly the same thing happened.

    The US under Biden invested heavily in chip manufacturing plants, but there seems little appetite from Europe to do the same.

    European politicians and companies do appear to be trying to kill their own car industry.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534
    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,314
    On the Reeves story, I tend to agree it’s probably not going to cause her resignation, though I would say that, as usual with these things, if the boot were on the other foot I’m quite sure Labour would be sticking the knife in now.

    I suspect it will be viewed rather dimly by the general public, who won’t look into things in any great detail. In the same way as Rayner’s stamp duty became “minister avoids tax” rather than “minister caught out by a rather obscure tax rule.”
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,266
    Conjecture:

    2026 Midterms do not happen in the blue cities which are under Marshall Law. Congress resumes with reelected MAGA candidates only plus the Democrats from rural areas where the election actually took place

    2028 General Election can't be held safely due to terrorists (e.g. Gavin Newsome) having control of the ballot in large parts of the US, so regretfully is "postponed"

    The talk about "will Trump be fit / alive" misses the point. You only need a candidate if you have an election.

    I know I can be prone to flights of fancy, catastrophising for entertainment. But MAGA are well on track to deliver this scenario and are openly telling journalists they are going to do so...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711
    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    And you haven't read the header.

    This is the significant paragraph.
    ..I was told that I was getting distracted by the talk of Trump running for a third term the issue is that the Republicans (including Trump) have committed egregious breaches of the law which has enriched themselves. If they let the Democratic party retake power in 2029 they are likely to be prosecuted for corruption...

    Trump has been gifted immunity for any actions as President by a corrupt Supreme Court.

    That absolutely does not apply to the coterie that surrounds him, and who are largely in control of the administrations policy, beyond the occasional whims of the President. They, not he, are for example the ones who run the largest by far federal "law enforcement" organisation in US history.

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,803

    On the Reeves story, I tend to agree it’s probably not going to cause her resignation, though I would say that, as usual with these things, if the boot were on the other foot I’m quite sure Labour would be sticking the knife in now.

    I suspect it will be viewed rather dimly by the general public, who won’t look into things in any great detail. In the same way as Rayner’s stamp duty became “minister avoids tax” rather than “minister caught out by a rather obscure tax rule.”

    There would be absolute silence in most of the media though, so it wouldn't get traction.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    edited 8:18AM

    On the Reeves story, I tend to agree it’s probably not going to cause her resignation, though I would say that, as usual with these things, if the boot were on the other foot I’m quite sure Labour would be sticking the knife in now.

    I suspect it will be viewed rather dimly by the general public, who won’t look into things in any great detail. In the same way as Rayner’s stamp duty became “minister avoids tax” rather than “minister caught out by a rather obscure tax rule.”

    Rayner’s situation was a lot more serious, with tens of thousands of pounds in tax at stake and clear untruths from her as the media drip-fed the story.

    Reeves’ situation is minor in comparison, but nonetheless another illustration of the pitfalls that any of us can fall into, and the need for politicians to take proper advice before they do anything. Also that 2020s Labour have turned from the party of workers into the party of landlords.

    Very unlikely she’ll need to resign, unless there’s a lot more to the story that we don’t yet know or she gets caught in a barefaced lie.
    Losing her would be a massive blow to the PM right before the Budget.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,431
    From last week:

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said she plans to scrap "needless form filling" in a bid to boost business growth.

    Speaking at a regional investment summit in Birmingham, the chancellor said the reforms would boost growth and "make the UK a top destination for global capital".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c629z48jjg7o

    Who needs to abolish form filling when you can ignore the forms.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,520
    kinabalu said:

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
    Why they lost to Trump fair and square in 2024; it wasn't voter intimidation or ballot rigging that did it.

    I don't doubt Trump will pull every lever he can to protect himself in office, or even try and find a way to stay in office, but it's much easier to deal with the fact he might be trying to stack the deck in his favour than engage with why they keep losing to him because that might require them to ask some very hard questions of themselves.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,920
    edited 8:19AM
    Katie Lam to be next Con leader is a massive arb between Betfair Exchange (15.5 to lay) and Paddy Power/Skybet (33/1 to back)

    Given she was 80/1 when no one had heard of her, I think the 33s seems too big.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835

    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932

    Depending on the amount of rent, you could cheat by saying, 'put the cash on the table in front of me, or I'm not handing over the contract. I won't touch it until you sign.'

    I mean, I know you and Anacashazina will go mad at the very suggestion, but it's the obvious way out of the difficulty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,147
    edited 8:20AM

    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932

    Wealth creators and higher earners likely to be heading to airports in significant numbers after the tax raising budget expected from Reeves.

    Fewer landlords likely too, making it more difficult to find properties to rent and with unemployment likely to rise further and growth slow with higher tax, more redtape and regulation and a minimum wage level that makes it too costly for small businesses to do much hiring fewer will be able to buy a home either.

    We are heading for the worst Labour government for the economy since the 1970s
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,412

    kinabalu said:

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
    Why people feel overlooked by their leadership and vote for Trump
    Wasn't it a global trend throughout 2024 that incumbents everywhere got a kicking, because voters everywhere are narked about the cost of living? Harris was just another point on that trend, and failed less badly than many.

    (Not seen comparable figures for this year- are governments doing any better?)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,803
    Justin Webb interviewing Geoffrey Clifton Brown this morning about PAC looking into Andrew's lease. One again demonstrating the breadth and depth of the research that he puts into his job.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,548

    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932

    A lot of people that I know I'm their 30s that have bought have done so from landlords stopping renting.

    Which I see as a net positive for society as a whole.

    ... I admit a balance needs to be struck so new building continues. But I'm not sure landlords regs are the main obstacle there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,955

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    Read the article, Trump running or not isn't the issue, will the likes of the Trump crime family, Vance, and Miller give up power after the shithousery/corruption they have engaged in?
    When talking of Ancient Rome, many talk only of the leaders.

    Behind Sulla, Marius and Caesar were a host of lieutenants and “clients”*

    If the Main Man hadn’t taken over Rome, they would have been ruined with him. The other side would strip them of their wealth to reward *their lieutenants and clients.

    So these men had a host of nothing-to-lose followers.

    *hard to express in modern terms - a lower status individual who pledge themselves to support a higher. In return they got protection, basically.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,431
    The combination of Reeves getting rental money without a licence and those on welfare getting away with not paying their energy bills is not going to please all those who do follow the rules.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,220

    kinabalu said:

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
    Why they lost to Trump fair and square in 2024; it wasn't voter intimidation or ballot rigging that did it.

    I don't doubt Trump will pull every lever he can to protect himself in office, or even try and find a way to stay in office, but it's much easier to deal with the fact he might be trying to stack the deck in his favour than engage with why they keep losing to him because that might require them to ask some very hard questions of themselves.
    Control of social media outside of any spending limits was a serious factor in moving votes. Fair and square? Dunno. Maybe that is the new normal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711

    Good morning

    I just don't see it not only from the constitutional problem but his age

    I was moving our daughter into her new home yesterday and missed the Rachel Reeves story

    Just another problem for her even if the Estate Agents failed to advise her but as @DavidL said on the last thread the monthly income is considerable and no NI

    As a matter of interest is there a penalty and if so what is it as I haven't heard of the need for a license to rent. ?

    Not as serious as Rayner but just another story adding to the general opinion of how out of touch labour are

    There are potentially both civil and criminal penalties for non compliance.
    As far as I am aware however, they are not automatically applied - and are probably used only when necessary to enforce compliance, rather than to punish an inadvertent breach. Which is pretty well as it should be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835

    The combination of Reeves getting rental money without a licence and those on welfare getting away with not paying their energy bills is not going to please all those who do follow the rules.

    What's annoying about the latter is if OFGEM enforced its own regulations through fines on the companies for breaches of their licences or capital ratios, they could pay off the bad debt four times over.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534
    Ratters said:

    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932

    A lot of people that I know I'm their 30s that have bought have done so from landlords stopping renting.

    Which I see as a net positive for society as a whole.

    ... I admit a balance needs to be struck so new building continues. But I'm not sure landlords regs are the main obstacle there.
    I've sold one of my properties in 2016 to a tenant (when they received an inheritance.)

    A few of my properties are rented out to people who are transient (such as students or a lady on a one year secondment.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711

    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.

    We all assumed the question was merely rhetorical.
    The alternative was, of course, unthinkable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,143
    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    edited 8:25AM

    kinabalu said:

    My guess is one of Trump's acolytes runs, not him, and then wins against a Democrat candidate that still doesn't get it.

    Get what exactly?
    Why they lost to Trump fair and square in 2024; it wasn't voter intimidation or ballot rigging that did it.

    I don't doubt Trump will pull every lever he can to protect himself in office, or even try and find a way to stay in office, but it's much easier to deal with the fact he might be trying to stack the deck in his favour than engage with why they keep losing to him because that might require them to ask some very hard questions of themselves.
    Control of social media outside of any spending limits was a serious factor in moving votes. Fair and square? Dunno. Maybe that is the new normal.
    Elon Musk’s $44bn intervention definitely can’t be overlooked in the 2024 election result.

    It meant that both parties’ activists had an online voice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711

    From last week:

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said she plans to scrap "needless form filling" in a bid to boost business growth.

    Speaking at a regional investment summit in Birmingham, the chancellor said the reforms would boost growth and "make the UK a top destination for global capital".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c629z48jjg7o

    Who needs to abolish form filling when you can ignore the forms.

    The point she made is not a bad one.
    Whether it will have any practical consequence is doubtful.

    One thing which simply doesn't happen here is any genuine cost benefit analysis of regulation.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,266
    HYUFD said:

    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932

    Wealth creators and higher earners likely to be heading to airports in significant numbers after the tax raising budget expected from Reeves.

    Fewer landlords likely too, making it more difficult to find properties to rent and with unemployment likely to rise further and growth slow with higher tax, more redtape and regulation and a minimum wage level that makes it too costly for small businesses to do much hiring fewer will be able to buy a home either.

    We are heading for the worst Labour government for the economy since the 1970s
    Truss

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,534

    Conjecture:

    2026 Midterms do not happen in the blue cities which are under Marshall Law. Congress resumes with reelected MAGA candidates only plus the Democrats from rural areas where the election actually took place

    2028 General Election can't be held safely due to terrorists (e.g. Gavin Newsome) having control of the ballot in large parts of the US, so regretfully is "postponed"

    The talk about "will Trump be fit / alive" misses the point. You only need a candidate if you have an election.

    I know I can be prone to flights of fancy, catastrophising for entertainment. But MAGA are well on track to deliver this scenario and are openly telling journalists they are going to do so...

    Martial Law!

    Oh to have George C. Marshall running things.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,682
    Nigelb said:

    I am hurt at the lack of 'QTWTAIN' being posted on this thread.

    I think I will have to deploy the Farage photo soon.

    We all assumed the question was merely rhetorical.
    The alternative was, of course, unthinkable.
    All people are idiots some of the time - it's what makes us human...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
    To let Obama run again, that would be funny.

    Pretty much no chance it gets ratified by enough States before 2028 though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,835

    Conjecture:

    2026 Midterms do not happen in the blue cities which are under Marshall Law. Congress resumes with reelected MAGA candidates only plus the Democrats from rural areas where the election actually took place

    2028 General Election can't be held safely due to terrorists (e.g. Gavin Newsome) having control of the ballot in large parts of the US, so regretfully is "postponed"

    The talk about "will Trump be fit / alive" misses the point. You only need a candidate if you have an election.

    I know I can be prone to flights of fancy, catastrophising for entertainment. But MAGA are well on track to deliver this scenario and are openly telling journalists they are going to do so...

    Martial Law!

    Oh to have George C. Marshall running things.
    He’d at least have a good plan.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,431
    Nigelb said:

    From last week:

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said she plans to scrap "needless form filling" in a bid to boost business growth.

    Speaking at a regional investment summit in Birmingham, the chancellor said the reforms would boost growth and "make the UK a top destination for global capital".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c629z48jjg7o

    Who needs to abolish form filling when you can ignore the forms.

    The point she made is not a bad one.
    Whether it will have any practical consequence is doubtful.

    One thing which simply doesn't happen here is any genuine cost benefit analysis of regulation.
    Abolishing one form will likely see it replaced by another form and create confusion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,147

    Conjecture:

    2026 Midterms do not happen in the blue cities which are under Marshall Law. Congress resumes with reelected MAGA candidates only plus the Democrats from rural areas where the election actually took place

    2028 General Election can't be held safely due to terrorists (e.g. Gavin Newsome) having control of the ballot in large parts of the US, so regretfully is "postponed"

    The talk about "will Trump be fit / alive" misses the point. You only need a candidate if you have an election.

    I know I can be prone to flights of fancy, catastrophising for entertainment. But MAGA are well on track to deliver this scenario and are openly telling journalists they are going to do so...

    In which case with an approval rating of under 40% still Trump would need the army to maintain control, he didn't get it in Jan 2021 and also blue states could start to secede and we could even get US civil war 2
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,690
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
    They’d have to be bloody sure that Obama would want to run, and the coming men (which seems to be mainly Newsom atm) wouldn’t be keen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    edited 8:33AM

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
    They’d have to be bloody sure that Obama would want to run, and the coming men (which seems to be mainly Newsom atm) wouldn’t be keen.
    If the Dems pick Newsom, they really haven’t learned from last time they picked a Californian.

    “Make America California Again” isn’t even popular in California at the moment, let alone the swing States.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,384
    edited 8:38AM
    I haven't responded directly to a particular poster so as not to cause too much offence to those sane washing the Trump bandwagon by claiming it is all the Woke Dems's fault.

    Stephen Miller has said it out loud, in the infamous "silent interview", where he stops to pretend the cameras have stopped running, but Miller remains blinking, Trump has "plenary authority" Miller blurted out before realising his error. Stephen Miller has called Dems "domestic terrorists". The coup is not in progress, it is done, there is now just the one branch of Government and Stephen Miller is the puppet King's master.

    Democrats who "get it" will either be dead or making Indiana state licence plates in Terra Haute.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,143

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
    They’d have to be bloody sure that Obama would want to run, and the coming men (which seems to be mainly Newsom atm) wouldn’t be keen.
    I think it would be more amusing because lots of Republicans who were desperate to take on Trump's mantle in 2028 would suddenly realise there was no mantle.

    Would Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley back a constitutional amendment that might end their hopes of becoming President?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,412
    HYUFD said:

    Conjecture:

    2026 Midterms do not happen in the blue cities which are under Marshall Law. Congress resumes with reelected MAGA candidates only plus the Democrats from rural areas where the election actually took place

    2028 General Election can't be held safely due to terrorists (e.g. Gavin Newsome) having control of the ballot in large parts of the US, so regretfully is "postponed"

    The talk about "will Trump be fit / alive" misses the point. You only need a candidate if you have an election.

    I know I can be prone to flights of fancy, catastrophising for entertainment. But MAGA are well on track to deliver this scenario and are openly telling journalists they are going to do so...

    In which case with an approval rating of under 40% still Trump would need the army to maintain control, he didn't get it in Jan 2021 and also blue states could start to secede and we could even get US civil war 2
    Good job that the Administration isn't recruiting a parallel army who bypass the normal checks and balances then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711
    ydoethur said:

    As a landlord I am glad I am reducing my portfolio.



    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1983620129083838932

    Depending on the amount of rent, you could cheat by saying, 'put the cash on the table in front of me, or I'm not handing over the contract. I won't touch it until you sign.'

    I mean, I know you and Anacashazina will go mad at the very suggestion, but it's the obvious way out of the difficulty.
    Can the rent not be deposited in escrow, to be paid out when the lease is signed ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,220
    isam said:

    Katie Lam to be next Con leader is a massive arb between Betfair Exchange (15.5 to lay) and Paddy Power/Skybet (33/1 to back)

    Given she was 80/1 when no one had heard of her, I think the 33s seems too big.

    Nobody should have been 80/1 - there are so few options.

    Absent a by-election win or two that isn't changing before the next election. And where are those by-election wins coming from? Hard to ee. Penny Mordaunt taking Rishi's seat maybe. Few others.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
    Not likely to happen, but more seriously, Obama should let it be known that he's interested in running again, if third terms are on the table.
    That might wind up Trump sufficiently to end any further nonsense from him on the issue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,147

    HYUFD said:

    Conjecture:

    2026 Midterms do not happen in the blue cities which are under Marshall Law. Congress resumes with reelected MAGA candidates only plus the Democrats from rural areas where the election actually took place

    2028 General Election can't be held safely due to terrorists (e.g. Gavin Newsome) having control of the ballot in large parts of the US, so regretfully is "postponed"

    The talk about "will Trump be fit / alive" misses the point. You only need a candidate if you have an election.

    I know I can be prone to flights of fancy, catastrophising for entertainment. But MAGA are well on track to deliver this scenario and are openly telling journalists they are going to do so...

    In which case with an approval rating of under 40% still Trump would need the army to maintain control, he didn't get it in Jan 2021 and also blue states could start to secede and we could even get US civil war 2
    Good job that the Administration isn't recruiting a parallel army who bypass the normal checks and balances then.
    So US Civil War 2 then potentially
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,711
    edited 8:42AM
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    LOL.

    He’s trolling you all, and won’t be running in 2028.

    If the Dems had any sense, they'd offer to repeal the Twenty Second Amendment.
    They’d have to be bloody sure that Obama would want to run, and the coming men (which seems to be mainly Newsom atm) wouldn’t be keen.
    If the Dems pick Newsom, they really haven’t learned from last time they picked a Californian.

    “Make America California Again” isn’t even popular in California at the moment, let alone the swing States.
    The national polling is actually starting to move towards him.
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2025-national/

    As far as the nomination is concerned, New Hampshire is leaning Buttigieg.
    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/poll-reveals-leading-2028-democratic-173326450.html
  • eekeek Posts: 31,682
    edited 8:44AM
    There seems to be a lot of focus on Trump running while TSE's companion is saying that the desire will be a Republican in the White House - Trump is just a possibility but the need will be to have a Republican in the White House to stop prosecutions from being kicked off

    That doesn't need to be Trump it could be a different Trump, Vance or A.N.Other. The point is the elections need to be rigged so that (Republican) candidate definitely wins...

    Edit - on the other hand the democrats dealt with Trump's crimes so incompetently from 2021 to 2024 I don't see the Republicans have anything to worry about.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,231
    I've read the header (for which thanks) & read all the comments and I don't know how to respond. The outlook for the USA seems appalling and it looks as though we aren't far behind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,855
    Offtopic, cockpit view from the crazy hurricane plane, with a ‘flight engineer’ sitting between the two pilots trying to keep everything straight.

    https://x.com/planesanity/status/1983790519357481358
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 66
    What deranged nonsense every side thinks each other is trying to steal the elections, and unlike the other side, this time it is serious, ive heard from a man who knows a man.
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