This is why Find Out Now polls are such outliers – politicalbetting.com
This is why Find Out Now polls are such outliers – politicalbetting.com
Given FindOutNow polls keep making news it's worth saying a bit more about their methodology.Unlike other online pollsters it doesn't use a panel of people who've signed up to do polls. Instead they ask a small number of Qs to people playing the Pick my Postcode lottery. (Thread)
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FTSE plunges as US regional banks warn over credit fraud exposure
The FTSE 100 plunged as warnings over bad bank loans in the US spooked investors around the world.
The UK’s flagship stock index, which is heavily weighted towards the financial sector, sank by 1.5pc as trading began in London.
HSBC, the second most-valuable company on the FTSE 100, and rivals including Lloyds Bank and Natwest plummeted by around 2.5pc each.
Global stocks were hit hard overnight, with the Nikkei 225 down as much as 1.6pc and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong declining by 2pc as they tracked heavy losses on Wall Street. The Dax in Germany this morning fell by more than 2pc and the Cac 40 in France dropped more than 1pc.
Sentiment has been rocked by concerns over potentially hidden stress in the network of loans to businesses handed out by US banks, which have $4.5 trillion of exposure to loans from financial institutions outside the banking sector.
Tensions have been heightened following the recent bankruptcies of auto lender Tricolor and auto parts maker First Brands, which triggered warnings from top financiers over lending standards in the $3 trillion private credit market.
This week the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, said the so-called shadow banking sector keeps her “awake at night” while JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon warned “when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more”.
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said: “Regional banks have become the canaries in the credit coal mine, and their chirping sounds suspiciously weak.”
US banking stocks plunged on Thursday after Zions Bancorporation, a Utah-based lender, said it would write off $50m on two loans, while Phoenix-based Western Alliance said it was starting legal proceedings over a bad loan said to be worth $100m.
Shares in Zions fell by more than 13pc, while Western Alliance Bancorp dropped by nearly 11pc. The twin warnings also dragged down shares in similar institutions. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, which tracks shares in regional US lenders, was down more than 6pc.
Dilin Wu, an analyst at Pepperstone Group said: “This US banking shock is more about market sentiment and liquidity than a systemic credit collapse.
“It’s a good case of global risk aversion at the moment — fundamentals are okay, but fear is dominating the trading desks.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/17/us-banks-credit-loans-fraud-ftse-100-markets-latest/
If the anti Farage opposition is divided Reform could win a landslide majority on 32%, as Starmer Labour won a big majority last year on just 33% with the right divided between the Tories and Reform.
If however Farage hating voters tactically vote against Reform for whichever party currently holds the parliamentary seat they live in, then a hung parliament is still very possible, maybe even a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs
They overreact.
It’s down a small amount and has recovered a bit of it.
Over the last 12 months it is well up.
In both cases they presumably weight the samples to be representative
Seats taken by LibLabCon in the last 3 elections 596 ,580 , 592 or 92%, 89% and 91%.
And I believe Find Out Now have a pretty good record. But I am happy to be schooled, if I’m wrong
Now in theory with enough people you can get an accurate representation of the country but I suspect it's going to be biased towards cash poor, time rich people - i.e. Reform voters
So, someone still fancies us, for all our problems
The Federalist, the Epoch Times, OAN, Turkish newspaper Akşam, three individuals from the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency, two Turkish freelancers, a reporter for the Australian, an Afghan freelancer; and three lesser-known operations, AWPS News, the India Globe and a blog called USA Journal Korea.
https://x.com/samstein/status/1978917775256228170
Seems there might be a gap in the market for the Knappers' Gazette ?
There are some projects looking to install CO2 capture on ships.
Other approach is to use ammonia as a carbon-free fuel.
Boris Johnson told him that he’d lost the confidence of the people of London. And so another head of the Met resigned.
This was condemned by some as “politicising an operational decision”.
Policing is political - it’s ultimately controlled by democratically elected politicians.
When I was in the USA for my mates wedding I had more than one woman tell me they loved my accent. A slight Brummie lilt which sounds a little like Barry from Auf Wiedersehn Pet.
"Looks like the semi-final places might well be decided on the amount of rain in Columbo. Did no one tell the ICC that it's monsoon season in Sri Lanka?"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/cr4ey2e3rdxt
Otherwise beyond London and the biggest cities, Labour are facing wipeout in areas of England with elections next year and the loss of Wales and no progress in Scotland either
Their adverts are also strange, and appear to be targetting very different tastes to the national lottery. They have an Asda vibe.
@GoodwinMJ
Poland's president has just signed a new law introducing zero personal income tax for parents raising at least two children. At least somebody in Europe (alongside the Hungarians) is thinking about how to tackle our demographic crisis"
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1979182947946127507
So, I don't think the dip is indicating that investors are particularly spooked. I mean... anything's possible. But right now, I'm not feeling it.
{Modifying the results of a "Rogue Pollster" has been the cause of the ruin of many a poor gambler}
A solid series of by election results in the new "heartland" of Surrey for the LDs with gains at both County and District/Borough level.
The County Council now has 39 Conservative and 42 non-Conservative Councillors and it will be interesting to see, IF the elections for the Shadow Authorities due to take place next year are postponed a year, whether some of the remaining County Councillors will fancy serving up to a seven year term.
That's how to suspend democracy - not through authoritarianism but reorganisation.
However, I would also point out that pro-natal policies do not have a particular record of success. Singapore probably has the most aggressive pro-natal policies in the world: free childcare, subsidised housing, tax rebates, lots of paid leave.
Their TFR is under 1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate
It’s a very tough decision and have to balance damage from perceptions of investing if things are shaky with getting an early mover benefit in the sphere I will be covering for the set up I have planned.
I was badly burned in 2008 and don’t want to have another painful hit so will likely run some private money for my people who truly understand risk but not open it up to wider investors until I can see any bubble deflated one way or another.
Safety Advisory Group says it will review ban if police risk assessment changes
Spiderman meme ongoing....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/17/home-office-told-a-week-ago-maccabi-tel-aviv-fans-faced-ban/
I actually joked about this on the last thread.
None of that is anywhere near economic at the moment.
There are plenty of other measure to reduce open going CO2 emissions which could be brought in, without spending billions on boondoggles.
Ocean shipping accounts for less than 3% of total emissions. Decarbonising land based transport, which accounts for over five times that number) is far more practical in the near term.
Even air transport would likely be more economically amenable to decarbonisation through the use of synthetic fuel (fuel costs are half of total shipping costs, while only around 20% of aviation).
Mind you, a Japanese acquaintance is heading back to Tokyo, to have children - because of the massive subsidies, compared to the massive costs of London. To start with, nursery is free, compared with about £1200 a month here.
She did comment that it will be a "bit interesting", given her husband is white British.
They weren't "told" according to the legal definition. Which relates to a law case in 1386 concerning the definition of told. They were just sent an email, which they received and read. But they weren't told. No Sir.
The latter is an example of the world we'd like versus the world as it is. There are huge and violent rivalries within British football - all manner of "grudge" matches involving supporters from sometimes the same town or city and there was plenty of violence around once related to these games as those who went to matches in the 70s and 80s will attest.
Of course, we shouldn't have the situation when Liverpool fans are banned from going to Old Trafford or Ipswich fans to Carrow Road or Millwall fans to almost anywhere and the same applies to supporters of Maccabi Tel Aviv.
There will be those who will argue the cost of policing such a game in terms of extra resources and manpower isn't justifiable and inevitably IF the ban is lifted, there will no doubt be those who, when the cost of doing all this appears in the public domain, will jump up and down but sometimes you have to forget the cost against the principle.
That's not to say public order as a whole isn't important but the intolerance of majorities (or is it the wisdom of crowds, I can never quite remember?) can't be the basis on which the policing of events takes place. Yes, you have a right to protest but peacefully and within the law and that means you can't intimidate people who have an equal right to be there but simply shout things you don't like or believe in a God you don't or have a skin colour which isn't yours.
Those with long memories wll remember Cable Street and the local population "defending" their area against the BUF - that was lauded as a victory then but would it be so now? I wonder.
National Lottery = 53% prizes, 37% charity + taxes, 10% to the operators and retailers
There is a reason the middle class don't get involved.
For Sunderland / Newcastle matches you bus in the away supporters on coaches leaving you with one set of vehicles to observe and if necessary protect.
The Chief Constable needs to be made to explain why he is taking the easy way out whilst creating an international incident..
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/17/robert-jenrick-i-was-right-about-birmingham-villa-park/
They are not all that far behind the west now (though the technical hurdles for EUC are considerably higher).
DUV tools still account for over half of ASML's business...
Fundamentally, being a parent - particularly being a mother - is really hard. My wife quoted to me the line from Meryl Streep in the Bridges of Madison County the other day, about how as a mother you have stop and stand still, so your children can move. And a lot of women see that trade, and aren't very keen on it.
Plausible deniability.
2) I am finding absolutely no support for Labour among people I know - middle of the road or the hard core lefties. Especially noticeable is that in casual, non-politics obsessed conversation, every action of the Government is seen as a tired joke.
3) Several acquaintances are going Reform, to my shock. And disgust.
4) Council election results seem to show that Reform are doing very well - in places where Labour/Conservatives/Others used to dominate.
To be clear. The current government is meeeeeeeeeeeeh. A Reform Government will be very, very bad in an active fashion. But this is about where I *bet* on things happening.
For full deniability you need someone else to open and print it for you - and add it to an in tray that is already overflowing...
I was received with a frosty silence.
Afterwards, my manager explained to be in a kindly fashion, that I had just made a Senior Figure publicly and provably aware of an issue that he (the Senior Figure) needed not to know about.
He further explained that officiously telling senior people the truth like that was probably worse than stealing money from the company.
At the moment though the centrist non Reform voter is still voting more Labour than LD and left of centre voters are largely split between Labour and Green and are not going LD
But, if the polling is close between Reform v main left wing party, then the Conservatives would be squeezed further. And, once Reform hit 25%+, their vote is quite efficiently distributed.
But the regular polling, including FON, is not without use, with regard to trends, relative performance, probabilities and ball park figures. Anyone relying on it is badly advised.
As to FON, I am not sure.
For regular standard electoral polling it seems to me there are three questions:
How do you get your respondents at all.
How do you weight them etc in order to be representative
and
How do you treat - ie alter - the raw data once you have got it (eg with regard to propensity to vote or otherwise).
FON's methods, unless they are obviously eccentric, can only be evaluated as a totality and when compared as a totality with the other pollsters. This one single factor doesn't on its own trash the brand.
My favourite story of his was him pointing out the last time they were looking at lifeboat safety that the measurements used to calculate the number of people each lifeboat could process was based on your typical brit in the 1930's and your average cruise passenger was rather bigger and less physically able.. To prove the point he them got out his holiday photos from the cruise he was on the previous week (which began in Miami).
Multiple patterning ("SAQP" is an example of that) allows the production of feature sizes a lot smaller than the DUV wavelength. For a quite a few processes, it's fully competitive with EUV, because the economics dictate that.
DUV will be around for quite a long time yet.
Whether China has a full set of domestically produced reliable tools for fancy stuff like SAQP isn't quite clear, I think.
Labour have a spread throughout the spectrum from RW to LS but it's definitely weaker at the RW end and stronger at the LS end. Kemi's chasing the Reform rhetoric will simply reinforce the damage done by Boris. Have I mentioned she's a dud*.
* It would be more appropriate to say she was the least-worst option for LOTO though that penny hasn't dropped yet. She has an unusually high opinion of her own abilities.
https://order-order.com/2025/10/17/exc-aston-villa-fc-safety-advisory-board-member-called-for-boycott-of-israel/
A Birmingham City councillor who claims to be “appointed on to the Safety Advisory Board at Aston Villa FC” – the club at which Maccabi Tel Aviv fans are banned next month – said that he would be boycotting the match in opposition to the Israeli government.
Speaking at a “Free Gaza” protest in 2014, he backed a boycott of Israel: “We need to ensure that there is a clear list of companies that are supporting the Zionists out there in Israel. We need to continue to boycott them.” In a 2016 open letter to Ruth Jacobs, of the Birmingham and West Midlands Jewry Representative Council, Zaffar said: “Palestinian violence has been a reaction to Israeli oppression and violence. Even when Palestinians protest peacefully, they are shot and often killed or maimed by the Israeli armed forces.” Labour said: “These views are not shared by the Labour party and Councillor Zaffar has been reminded of his responsibilities as a Labour councillor”…
On the other hand, if the Conservatives stage some kind of come back (maybe getting back in the low-20s, while Reform comes back into the high 20s), then almost any result is possible.
What you’re reliant on is a staff who know what to prioritise for you to know about.
Far less economically practical to significantly reduce the amount of ocean shipping than the number of airline flights.
I clearly have no idea how much weight they can shift, range, speed and susceptibility to bad weather but I have images of “sky trains” of them moving along below plane flight altitudes with perhaps one manned and the rest linked to it by satellite (if indeed all can’t be unmanned) delivering cargo that’s not “urgent”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/17/birmingham-council-boss-tel-aviv-fans-ban-anti-semitic-slur/
https://news.sky.com/story/asylum-seeker-seen-dancing-and-laughing-after-stabbing-hotel-worker-23-times-jury-hears-13450007
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/25548146.peer-review-praises-durham-county-councils-performance/