There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Do we know that? Other reasons could be how they weight their sample.
It’s not that they skew left it is they are much more strict with habitual non voters, others like Find Out Now are much more generous.
Plenty of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t don’t vote in general elections this century, 2019 apart if at all since 2001.
And the high-price question is this.
Are these habitual non-voters people who have finally found someone worthy of their vote, so their electoral strike is over? Or are they just saying it now, because that's the easy bit?
The related question is what voters who went for Starmer (or Sunak!) but are currently unimpressed going to do. At the moment, they are mostly in the boxes "don't know"/"won't say"/"won't vote"/"will give my vote to a pointless party that makes me feel good". Will they stick to that, when push comes to shove?
A lot of the polling gap is people making different judgements about those questions, because it's really hard to tell in advance.
Faites vos jeux messieurs, faites vos jeux.
A fortnight ago I met up with a former political strategist who pointed out that during the 2010 parliament Ed Miliband led consistently in the polls mostly due to left leaning Lib Dems who were enraged about the yellow peril making a Tory the Prime Minister.
Yet come election days these voters either stayed at home or just went meh.
If you look at the polling at the time, these voters were the ones self identifying as the most likely to turn out at the 2015 general election.
There would have to be an unbelievably strong demographic quirk to make me believe that we've finally reached the election that Labour can out-perform, heck even just perform, their polling.
Labour outperformed their polling in 2010 and 2017.
Ancient history never was my strong point, but did they actually win either of those elections?
The results of those elections have been lost in the mists of time. Only certain artefacts can survive from the distant past. You need large inscribed stones, or something...
The "Northern Launch" scheduled for this weekend with Sultana, both on the square in front of the railway station and in the town park in Huddersfield.
An earlier pre-launch-launch-launch saw Corbyn come to Huddersfield for a big rally.
Given that, numerically at least, Huddersfield is the Green's number 1 target seat nationwide, it can only possibly be seen by the Greens as hostile action.
I think, if this is the way they play it, Polanski will have them for dinner. After all the left don't need hypnosis to make big (idiots) of themselves
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Shitting all over the country while pretending to be patriots. It's sickening.
There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Do we know that? Other reasons could be how they weight their sample.
It’s not that they skew left it is they are much more strict with habitual non voters, others like Find Out Now are much more generous.
Plenty of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t don’t vote in general elections this century, 2019 apart if at all since 2001.
And the high-price question is this.
Are these habitual non-voters people who have finally found someone worthy of their vote, so their electoral strike is over? Or are they just saying it now, because that's the easy bit?
The related question is what voters who went for Starmer (or Sunak!) but are currently unimpressed going to do. At the moment, they are mostly in the boxes "don't know"/"won't say"/"won't vote"/"will give my vote to a pointless party that makes me feel good". Will they stick to that, when push comes to shove?
A lot of the polling gap is people making different judgements about those questions, because it's really hard to tell in advance.
Faites vos jeux messieurs, faites vos jeux.
A fortnight ago I met up with a former political strategist who pointed out that during the 2010 parliament Ed Miliband led consistently in the polls mostly due to left leaning Lib Dems who were enraged about the yellow peril making a Tory the Prime Minister.
Yet come election days these voters either stayed at home or just went meh.
If you look at the polling at the time, these voters were the ones self identifying as the most likely to turn out at the 2015 general election.
There would have to be an unbelievably strong demographic quirk to make me believe that we've finally reached the election that Labour can out-perform, heck even just perform, their polling.
Labour outperformed their polling in 2010 and 2017.
Ancient history never was my strong point, but did they actually win either of those elections?
I seemed to recall some bar charts on here suggesting they did in 2017. Can't remember who posted them mind.
And yet, in two little-noticed cases — including one spearheaded by Vice President J.D. Vance — the high court could soon do the opposite, eliminating the last restrictions on campaign donations and obstructing law enforcement’s efforts to halt bribery...
..Once again, the master planners are conjuring a legal fiction — House Republicans’ amicus brief insists that because parties pool money from many contributors, that “significantly dilutes the potential for any particular donor to exercise a corrupting influence over any particular candidate” who ultimately benefits from their cash. In essence, they’re asking justices to believe a bank CEO’s donation to a political party coordinating with a lawmaker’s campaign can in no way influence how that lawmaker drafts banking legislation.
A robust argument for preserving the existing restrictions is certainly possible — but the defense side of the case has already been thrown into chaos. After Donald Trump was sworn in, his solicitor general ended the Justice Department’s support of the current law and joined with the plaintiffs attacking it. The Supreme Court then assigned the defense to a conservative lawyer who served as Chief Justice Roberts’ clerk when he engineered the original Citizens United ruling. This same conservative attorney charged with defending the last remaining campaign finance statutes recently pressed justices to limit the scope of federal anti-bribery laws, which are now also in the legal crosshairs...
This bit explains why Vance is so vehemently denying that Homan's' envelope of $50k wasn't a bribe.
..In a concurrent case unfolding amid Washington’s bacchanal of self-enrichment scandals, Cincinnati’s former Democratic city councilman P.G. Sittenfeld is asking the Supreme Court to overturn his bribery conviction after an FBI sting caught him accepting a $20,000 campaign contribution in exchange for supporting a local development project.
Notably, Sittenfeld has already been pardoned by Trump, making him by his own admission the first person in history to appeal a case he’s already been absolved from. He is receiving pro bono legal counsel from the most Trump-connected law firm in America, he is being personally represented by Trump’s former solicitor general, and his appeal is being supported by an army of former elected officials...
This, the guy who penned the Citizens United decision, stepped down during Trump term 1, and hand picked Kavanaugh as his replacement.
Justice Anthony Kennedy, who retired from #SCOTUS in 2018, is worried about this country. In an NPR interview the Reagan appointee warns that “Democracy is not guaranteed to survive.” https://x.com/NinaTotenberg/status/1977853163098042670
This, on the other hand, is a fascinating proposal to jujitsu Citizens United, at the same time as reasserting States' rights.
Another very good argument for setting stricter limits on corporate personhood - which has implications well beyond the US - is that it's only a matter of time before someone starts to get AIs incorporated. Given there's no theoretical limit on their numbers, giving them all of the current legal rights associated with corporations could be a very dangerous step.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Do we know that? Other reasons could be how they weight their sample.
It’s not that they skew left it is they are much more strict with habitual non voters, others like Find Out Now are much more generous.
Plenty of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t don’t vote in general elections this century, 2019 apart if at all since 2001.
And the high-price question is this.
Are these habitual non-voters people who have finally found someone worthy of their vote, so their electoral strike is over? Or are they just saying it now, because that's the easy bit?
The related question is what voters who went for Starmer (or Sunak!) but are currently unimpressed going to do. At the moment, they are mostly in the boxes "don't know"/"won't say"/"won't vote"/"will give my vote to a pointless party that makes me feel good". Will they stick to that, when push comes to shove?
A lot of the polling gap is people making different judgements about those questions, because it's really hard to tell in advance.
Faites vos jeux messieurs, faites vos jeux.
A fortnight ago I met up with a former political strategist who pointed out that during the 2010 parliament Ed Miliband led consistently in the polls mostly due to left leaning Lib Dems who were enraged about the yellow peril making a Tory the Prime Minister.
Yet come election days these voters either stayed at home or just went meh.
If you look at the polling at the time, these voters were the ones self identifying as the most likely to turn out at the 2015 general election.
There would have to be an unbelievably strong demographic quirk to make me believe that we've finally reached the election that Labour can out-perform, heck even just perform, their polling.
Labour outperformed their polling in 2010 and 2017.
Ancient history never was my strong point, but did they actually win either of those elections?
The results of those elections have been lost in the mists of time. Only certain artefacts can survive from the distant past. You need large inscribed stones, or something...
There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Do we know that? Other reasons could be how they weight their sample.
It’s not that they skew left it is they are much more strict with habitual non voters, others like Find Out Now are much more generous.
Plenty of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t don’t vote in general elections this century, 2019 apart if at all since 2001.
And the high-price question is this.
Are these habitual non-voters people who have finally found someone worthy of their vote, so their electoral strike is over? Or are they just saying it now, because that's the easy bit?
The related question is what voters who went for Starmer (or Sunak!) but are currently unimpressed going to do. At the moment, they are mostly in the boxes "don't know"/"won't say"/"won't vote"/"will give my vote to a pointless party that makes me feel good". Will they stick to that, when push comes to shove?
A lot of the polling gap is people making different judgements about those questions, because it's really hard to tell in advance.
Faites vos jeux messieurs, faites vos jeux.
A fortnight ago I met up with a former political strategist who pointed out that during the 2010 parliament Ed Miliband led consistently in the polls mostly due to left leaning Lib Dems who were enraged about the yellow peril making a Tory the Prime Minister.
Yet come election days these voters either stayed at home or just went meh.
If you look at the polling at the time, these voters were the ones self identifying as the most likely to turn out at the 2015 general election.
There would have to be an unbelievably strong demographic quirk to make me believe that we've finally reached the election that Labour can out-perform, heck even just perform, their polling.
Labour outperformed their polling in 2010 and 2017.
Ancient history never was my strong point, but did they actually win either of those elections?
The results of those elections have been lost in the mists of time. Only certain artefacts can survive from the distant past. You need large inscribed stones, or something...
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
The Greens are intoxicatingly optimistic at the moment. A different kind of populism.
There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Do we know that? Other reasons could be how they weight their sample.
It’s not that they skew left it is they are much more strict with habitual non voters, others like Find Out Now are much more generous.
Plenty of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t don’t vote in general elections this century, 2019 apart if at all since 2001.
And the high-price question is this.
Are these habitual non-voters people who have finally found someone worthy of their vote, so their electoral strike is over? Or are they just saying it now, because that's the easy bit?
The related question is what voters who went for Starmer (or Sunak!) but are currently unimpressed going to do. At the moment, they are mostly in the boxes "don't know"/"won't say"/"won't vote"/"will give my vote to a pointless party that makes me feel good". Will they stick to that, when push comes to shove?
A lot of the polling gap is people making different judgements about those questions, because it's really hard to tell in advance.
Faites vos jeux messieurs, faites vos jeux.
A fortnight ago I met up with a former political strategist who pointed out that during the 2010 parliament Ed Miliband led consistently in the polls mostly due to left leaning Lib Dems who were enraged about the yellow peril making a Tory the Prime Minister.
Yet come election days these voters either stayed at home or just went meh.
If you look at the polling at the time, these voters were the ones self identifying as the most likely to turn out at the 2015 general election.
There would have to be an unbelievably strong demographic quirk to make me believe that we've finally reached the election that Labour can out-perform, heck even just perform, their polling.
Labour outperformed their polling in 2010 and 2017.
Ancient history never was my strong point, but did they actually win either of those elections?
The results of those elections have been lost in the mists of time. Only certain artefacts can survive from the distant past. You need large inscribed stones, or something...
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
The UAE and Qatar have rather more stringent laws & penalties than we do. That's another option, of course, but we seem to prefer a more relaxed approach, which is why we can't deport people.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
You're new to PB? Welcome.
(In reality, the Greens get a small fraction of the broadcaster attention certain other parties get. So ...)
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
The Greens are intoxicatingly optimistic at the moment. A different kind of populism.
There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Do we know that? Other reasons could be how they weight their sample.
It’s not that they skew left it is they are much more strict with habitual non voters, others like Find Out Now are much more generous.
Plenty of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t don’t vote in general elections this century, 2019 apart if at all since 2001.
And the high-price question is this.
Are these habitual non-voters people who have finally found someone worthy of their vote, so their electoral strike is over? Or are they just saying it now, because that's the easy bit?
The related question is what voters who went for Starmer (or Sunak!) but are currently unimpressed going to do. At the moment, they are mostly in the boxes "don't know"/"won't say"/"won't vote"/"will give my vote to a pointless party that makes me feel good". Will they stick to that, when push comes to shove?
A lot of the polling gap is people making different judgements about those questions, because it's really hard to tell in advance.
Faites vos jeux messieurs, faites vos jeux.
A fortnight ago I met up with a former political strategist who pointed out that during the 2010 parliament Ed Miliband led consistently in the polls mostly due to left leaning Lib Dems who were enraged about the yellow peril making a Tory the Prime Minister.
Yet come election days these voters either stayed at home or just went meh.
If you look at the polling at the time, these voters were the ones self identifying as the most likely to turn out at the 2015 general election.
There would have to be an unbelievably strong demographic quirk to make me believe that we've finally reached the election that Labour can out-perform, heck even just perform, their polling.
Labour outperformed their polling in 2010 and 2017.
Ancient history never was my strong point, but did they actually win either of those elections?
The results of those elections have been lost in the mists of time. Only certain artefacts can survive from the distant past. You need large inscribed stones, or something...
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Don’t they just?
“"The economy is broken, the health service is broken, and public services are broken. So there's a lot of mess to fix,” Sir Keir told the Mirror.”
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
I'm not sure many ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar actually go there as immigrants, more to make money and move on to somewhere nice, not necessarily the UK. The Spanish might disagree with you regarding non-assimilating Brits
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
Ahem! Speak for yourself, some of us do learn the local language, even when everyone now speaks English everywhere.
It’s a very useful skill to be able to understand the gist of a conversation that others think are excluding you!
Also, if I fail to uphold their required standards of behaviour then I’ll be on a plane out first, and asking questions later. I’ll be paying for my own lawyer as well.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
Poor people don't vote but angry people do. Wonder if they can keep it up for the next 4 years.
A belated post of appreciation for a thoughtful, if a little disheartening, post from @Nigelb
It looks like Eli Lilly are eating Novo Nordisks lunch with weight loss drugs.
Biopharma is a high tech, high wage, industry we should be targetting to grow. Sadly it’s likely to stall.
Early days for the weight loss competition. The big thing will be producing a pill rather than injection, which is effective and doesn't come with as many adverse reactions (nausea being a major reason for discontinuation with all the existing drugs, to a greater or lesser extent, for example).
It's a huge market, and there's room for quite a lot of differentiation.
My friend is on GLP1 inhibitors and while it helps with his diabetes/weight it is a significant constraint on his life style. Finds eating out difficult as he is full after a very modest main. No pudding or starter. Now thats not a huge problem, but it can affect mental health too.
Why is that difficult?
You have 2 starters, one as a main, and no pudding. Perhaps a coffee or a mint tea if you want to be companionable
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
I'm not sure many ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar actually go there as immigrants, more to make money and move on to somewhere nice, not necessarily the UK. The Spanish might disagree with you regarding non-assimilating Brits
There’s no pathway to citizenship, no indefinite leave to remain, no recourse to public funds…
If you earn $100k or invest $500k you can sponsor yourself for 10 years, if not then it’s sponsored employment and losing your job means losing your visa.
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
I'm not sure many ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar actually go there as immigrants, more to make money and move on to somewhere nice, not necessarily the UK. The Spanish might disagree with you regarding non-assimilating Brits
Yes, most centre left leaning types see non assimilating Brits who live in Southern Spain as a rich seam of material for ridicule. I always found this strange, as they are simultaneously defensive of non assimilating migrants to Britain.
Seems to me locals aren’t too fond of either, and who can blame them?
The particular demolished gate and gatepost I asked him to have a look out is - inevitably - about 50m in the next division, so I've been referred across.
A quick follow up call from the other Councillor, so that is quite interesting. This looks like Reform around here doing some pavement politics.
An interesting aside in the chat, that one had approached Via (who do our highways) for a crossing question (yellow lines on the corners of junctions to prevent pavement parking, and been told that they could not be done as there were not enough casualties. That's 1980s thinking, that needs to go.
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
Letting oil flow from Iran would be a double positive for the world: driving down oil prices (good for energy importers like the UK), and putting pressure on the Russian government.
The only downside is that it props up the Iranian regime. But if they're willing to promise no more Uranium enrichment, then maybe this is the right carrot. (Of course, this would effectively be a return to the Obama deal, but I'm happy to call it the Trump plan, if it succeeds.)
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
Letting oil flow from Iran would be a double positive for the world: driving down oil prices (good for energy importers like the UK), and putting pressure on the Russian government.
The only downside is that it props up the Iranian regime. But if they're willing to promise no more Uranium enrichment, then maybe this is the right carrot. (Of course, this would effectively be a return to the Obama deal, but I'm happy to call it the Trump plan, if it succeeds.)
Lower oil prices would have a two order effect: for European countries and Japan, it'd simply reduce net imports, increasing GDP mechanistically. In the world more generally, it would mean more money in consumers pockets, allowing them to feel richer and spend more. (Which could potentially start a positive feedback loop - something sadly missing for some time in the developed world.)
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
They might if they were at much risk of running the country.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
Ahem! Speak for yourself, some of us do learn the local language, even when everyone now speaks English everywhere.
It’s a very useful skill to be able to understand the gist of a conversation that others think are excluding you!
Also, if I fail to uphold their required standards of behaviour then I’ll be on a plane out first, and asking questions later. I’ll be paying for my own lawyer as well.
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
Letting oil flow from Iran would be a double positive for the world: driving down oil prices (good for energy importers like the UK), and putting pressure on the Russian government.
The only downside is that it props up the Iranian regime. But if they're willing to promise no more Uranium enrichment, then maybe this is the right carrot. (Of course, this would effectively be a return to the Obama deal, but I'm happy to call it the Trump plan, if it succeeds.)
Lower oil prices would have a two order effect: for European countries and Japan, it'd simply reduce net imports, increasing GDP mechanistically. In the world more generally, it would mean more money in consumers pockets, allowing them to feel richer and spend more. (Which could potentially start a positive feedback loop - something sadly missing for some time in the developed world.)
Will it make EV drivers have more money in their pockets?
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
The Greens are intoxicatingly optimistic at the moment. A different kind of populism.
Nah, they are equally deluded. At least, this week, Reform rowed back on their insane manifesto spending pledges from 2024.
You can abolish private landlords and a wealth tax can fund their pet projects. Utterly deluded.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
They might if they were at much risk of running the country.
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
Letting oil flow from Iran would be a double positive for the world: driving down oil prices (good for energy importers like the UK), and putting pressure on the Russian government.
The only downside is that it props up the Iranian regime. But if they're willing to promise no more Uranium enrichment, then maybe this is the right carrot. (Of course, this would effectively be a return to the Obama deal, but I'm happy to call it the Trump plan, if it succeeds.)
Lower oil prices would have a two order effect: for European countries and Japan, it'd simply reduce net imports, increasing GDP mechanistically. In the world more generally, it would mean more money in consumers pockets, allowing them to feel richer and spend more. (Which could potentially start a positive feedback loop - something sadly missing for some time in the developed world.)
Will it make EV drivers have more money in their pockets?
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
Maybe, or maybe the problem is developers ruthlessly targeting minimum standards and then complaining when they fail even those.
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
Letting oil flow from Iran would be a double positive for the world: driving down oil prices (good for energy importers like the UK), and putting pressure on the Russian government.
The only downside is that it props up the Iranian regime. But if they're willing to promise no more Uranium enrichment, then maybe this is the right carrot. (Of course, this would effectively be a return to the Obama deal, but I'm happy to call it the Trump plan, if it succeeds.)
Isn’t Iran still digging out that mountain which those B-2s buried in rubble a few months ago, before their crappy Russian air defences ever knew the bombers were there?
Lower oil prices help pretty much everyone but the Saudis and Putin. The former are easily placated by the Americans, and are in the best place to hoover up once Russia goes bust. Which it will, pretty damn quickly if it can’t give away the stuff. Right now half of Russia doesn’t even have petrol.
Meanwhile, we might finally have a driver of growth and a tamer of inflation across the Western world.
The UK is forecast to be the second-fastest growing of the world's most advanced economies this year, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rates of growth remain modest at 1.3% for this year and next, but that outperforms the other G7 economies apart from the US in 2025, in a torrid year of trade and geopolitical tensions.
However, UK inflation is set to rise to the highest in the G7 in 2025 and 2026, the IMF predicts, driven by larger energy and utility bills.
UK inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026 but the IMF says this will be "temporary", and fall to 2% by the end of next year.
The G7 are seven advanced economies - the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan - but the group doesn't include fast-growing economies such as China and India. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn092p27xn0o
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
Ahem! Speak for yourself, some of us do learn the local language, even when everyone now speaks English everywhere.
It’s a very useful skill to be able to understand the gist of a conversation that others think are excluding you!
Also, if I fail to uphold their required standards of behaviour then I’ll be on a plane out first, and asking questions later. I’ll be paying for my own lawyer as well.
The UK is forecast to be the second-fastest growing of the world's most advanced economies this year, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rates of growth remain modest at 1.3% for this year and next, but that outperforms the other G7 economies apart from the US in 2025, in a torrid year of trade and geopolitical tensions.
However, UK inflation is set to rise to the highest in the G7 in 2025 and 2026, the IMF predicts, driven by larger energy and utility bills.
UK inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026 but the IMF says this will be "temporary", and fall to 2% by the end of next year.
The G7 are seven advanced economies - the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan - but the group doesn't include fast-growing economies such as China and India. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn092p27xn0o
But Ed Miliband promised a £300 a year reduction !!!!
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
A new bus service has opened in London, the BL1 Bakerloop, which travels from Waterloo to Lewisham and is following the route that a future extension of the Bakerloo Line might take.
Good news. I must say I had not heard of Mr Dunn but he has some fascinating stuff on his website - for instance on Wells Cathedral - which looks to modern eyes like an exotic temple in the original colour scheme - and on recycled WW2 ARP stretchers used as fences.
At least stock prices are totally objective, unlike much one might read about the war.
I keep reading that the oil depot at Feodosia is still on fire after two days, but can I be certain about it? Only takes a couple of doctored photos, or old ones from a few weeks ago, to convince me and a few optimistic Ukranian bloggers.
Same with Russian petrol stations being empty, is it a handful of them or is it nearly all of them, we really have no idea.
At least stock prices are totally objective, unlike much one might read about the war.
I keep reading that the oil depot at Feodosia is still on fire after two days, but can I be certain about it? Only takes a couple of doctored photos, or old ones from a few weeks ago, to convince me and a few optimistic Ukranian bloggers.
Same with Russian petrol stations being empty, is it a handful of them or is it nearly all of them, we really have no idea.
We really need to hear from people in the Baltic States (Hi Cicero) or perhaps Kazakstan about people sneaking across the borders to buy petrol or similar. Anyone any contacts in the Kaliningrad territory?
The UK is forecast to be the second-fastest growing of the world's most advanced economies this year, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rates of growth remain modest at 1.3% for this year and next, but that outperforms the other G7 economies apart from the US in 2025, in a torrid year of trade and geopolitical tensions.
However, UK inflation is set to rise to the highest in the G7 in 2025 and 2026, the IMF predicts, driven by larger energy and utility bills.
UK inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026 but the IMF says this will be "temporary", and fall to 2% by the end of next year.
The G7 are seven advanced economies - the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan - but the group doesn't include fast-growing economies such as China and India. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn092p27xn0o
But Ed Miliband promised a £300 a year reduction !!!!
The UK is forecast to be the second-fastest growing of the world's most advanced economies this year, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rates of growth remain modest at 1.3% for this year and next, but that outperforms the other G7 economies apart from the US in 2025, in a torrid year of trade and geopolitical tensions.
However, UK inflation is set to rise to the highest in the G7 in 2025 and 2026, the IMF predicts, driven by larger energy and utility bills.
UK inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026 but the IMF says this will be "temporary", and fall to 2% by the end of next year.
The G7 are seven advanced economies - the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan - but the group doesn't include fast-growing economies such as China and India. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn092p27xn0o
But Ed Miliband promised a £300 a year reduction !!!!
That was by the end of the Parliament, wasn't it?
Well given it is going up he has more to get than £300.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
It is rather upsetting @Taz that you have left us LDs alone and gone for the Greens. What have we done right?
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
Maybe, or maybe the problem is developers ruthlessly targeting minimum standards and then complaining when they fail even those.
When I worked for a growing alt-bank, they decided the time was ripe to have a data security department. Duty was to prevent all loss/leakage of data.
This then stopped all development - since there was no way to prove 100% that a change would not involve a risk. Even a change to patch a known vulnerability.
This was because “and allowing the bank to operate” hadn’t been put in their remit.
If they simply blocked *everything* then all good.
At least stock prices are totally objective, unlike much one might read about the war.
I keep reading that the oil depot at Feodosia is still on fire after two days, but can I be certain about it? Only takes a couple of doctored photos, or old ones from a few weeks ago, to convince me and a few optimistic Ukranian bloggers.
Same with Russian petrol stations being empty, is it a handful of them or is it nearly all of them, we really have no idea.
We really need to hear from people in the Baltic States (Hi Cicero) or perhaps Kazakstan about people sneaking across the borders to buy petrol or similar. Anyone any contacts in the Kaliningrad territory?
If people sneak across the border, I wonder how many actually return with the petrol or decide to just stay across the border.
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
I thought we'd seen what happens when developers are allowed a little freedom: they cover large residential blocks with highly flammable cladding and piss off when they have to replace it. They can have the benefit of the doubt from the next generation.
Since late 2022, the S&P 500 has swelled by nearly two-thirds, with just seven firms — all of whom have invested heavily in A.I. — driving more than half of that growth.
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
I thought we'd seen what happens when developers are allowed a little freedom: they cover large residential blocks with highly flammable cladding and piss off when they have to replace it. They can have the benefit of the doubt from the next generation.
I am utterly certain that the block where the signs were 2mm too small was passed for fire safety, otherwise, with flying colours.
While the building was actually on fire and the cladding going up like fire lighters.
Since late 2022, the S&P 500 has swelled by nearly two-thirds, with just seven firms — all of whom have invested heavily in A.I. — driving more than half of that growth.
NY Times.
Better hope it doesn't go pop. It would make the dot com bubble looks like a tea party.
Mike Johnson: "I'm proud to tell you that together with my friend Speaker Ohana of the Israeli Knesset, we're gonna embark on a project together to rally speakers and presidents of parliaments around the world so that we will jointly nominate President Donald J Trump for next year's Nobel Peace Prize. No one has ever deserved that prize more, and that is an objective fact."
Not only is it pathetic (do these people have no self-respect?) - they miss a monumental key point. The minute he gets the prize he gives up on any peace seeking whatsoever.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
Just speaking for myself they don't (because the xenophobic nativism aspect which I so dislike is absent) but nevertheless I would include them under Polanski in that category, yes.
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
Maybe, or maybe the problem is developers ruthlessly targeting minimum standards and then complaining when they fail even those.
When I worked for a growing alt-bank, they decided the time was ripe to have a data security department. Duty was to prevent all loss/leakage of data.
This then stopped all development - since there was no way to prove 100% that a change would not involve a risk. Even a change to patch a known vulnerability.
This was because “and allowing the bank to operate” hadn’t been put in their remit.
If they simply blocked *everything* then all good.
LOL. Having said that, for a couple of weeks I blocked every change for a neighbouring department. They asked me to review scheduled changes and almost all of them I rejected, often because I could not find the root/admin password in the vault, or because the instructions were ambiguous or there was no backout.
Basically, this department had the computer contract for a well-known airline. These changes I was rejecting for incomplete instructions were basically, that thing you did for us last Monday, and the Monday before that, and every Monday for the past five years – do it again.
And because this team had been doing it every week, no-one had noticed the directions had not kept pace with myriad minor upgrades over the years.
A belated post of appreciation for a thoughtful, if a little disheartening, post from @Nigelb
It looks like Eli Lilly are eating Novo Nordisks lunch with weight loss drugs.
Biopharma is a high tech, high wage, industry we should be targetting to grow. Sadly it’s likely to stall.
Early days for the weight loss competition. The big thing will be producing a pill rather than injection, which is effective and doesn't come with as many adverse reactions (nausea being a major reason for discontinuation with all the existing drugs, to a greater or lesser extent, for example).
It's a huge market, and there's room for quite a lot of differentiation.
My friend is on GLP1 inhibitors and while it helps with his diabetes/weight it is a significant constraint on his life style. Finds eating out difficult as he is full after a very modest main. No pudding or starter. Now thats not a huge problem, but it can affect mental health too.
Why is that difficult?
You have 2 starters, one as a main, and no pudding. Perhaps a coffee or a mint tea if you want to be companionable
My friend has been very used to enjoying food and now his enjoyment is massively curtailed. Drinking too, he finds more than a pint difficult (volume).
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
Since late 2022, the S&P 500 has swelled by nearly two-thirds, with just seven firms — all of whom have invested heavily in A.I. — driving more than half of that growth.
NY Times.
Better hope it doesn't go pop. It would make the dot com bubble looks like a tea party.
It’s all VC money, and mostly in a handful of companies.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
It is rather upsetting @Taz that you have left us LDs alone and gone for the Greens. What have we done right?
😀😀😀😀
I’m not really going for the greens. Just wondering if they will get the same level of scrutiny as Reform.
At least, in their favour, they have principles and policies.
I don’t think they’re a thread to you either. I don’t their brand of Gaza/Gender/wealth tax/landlords evil politics will hit home where you’re strong.
A belated post of appreciation for a thoughtful, if a little disheartening, post from @Nigelb
It looks like Eli Lilly are eating Novo Nordisks lunch with weight loss drugs.
Biopharma is a high tech, high wage, industry we should be targetting to grow. Sadly it’s likely to stall.
Early days for the weight loss competition. The big thing will be producing a pill rather than injection, which is effective and doesn't come with as many adverse reactions (nausea being a major reason for discontinuation with all the existing drugs, to a greater or lesser extent, for example).
It's a huge market, and there's room for quite a lot of differentiation.
My friend is on GLP1 inhibitors and while it helps with his diabetes/weight it is a significant constraint on his life style. Finds eating out difficult as he is full after a very modest main. No pudding or starter. Now thats not a huge problem, but it can affect mental health too.
Why is that difficult?
You have 2 starters, one as a main, and no pudding. Perhaps a coffee or a mint tea if you want to be companionable
My friend has been very used to enjoying food and now his enjoyment is massively curtailed. Drinking too, he finds more than a pint difficult (volume).
A friend of mine had part of her stomach removed in Turkey to lose weight.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Don’t they just?
“"The economy is broken, the health service is broken, and public services are broken. So there's a lot of mess to fix,” Sir Keir told the Mirror.”
From my limited experience with the new building regs, I strongly agree with this.
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid. https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
I thought we'd seen what happens when developers are allowed a little freedom: they cover large residential blocks with highly flammable cladding and piss off when they have to replace it. They can have the benefit of the doubt from the next generation.
I am utterly certain that the block where the signs were 2mm too small was passed for fire safety, otherwise, with flying colours.
While the building was actually on fire and the cladding going up like fire lighters.
See “Bike Shedding”.
Yes they seem to be great at building broken homes. I'd want a list of things that were rejected by the regulator. "2mm signs" are the absurdity but if they can't get the signs right how likely its it they've broken something more serious?
The UK property 'industry' deserves a regulatory beating after what its done, of course they'll scream that we're hurting the home buyers but they've been fucking them for a good while. Look over the last decades profit margins of large developers.
Perhaps this has been discussed, but could your phone problems have been caused by some group?
I hesitated before raising this possibility and want to make it clear that I have no evidence -- but you do have an enemy or two. And there have been people attacking networked systems in the US, who were just trying to make a dishonest buck, or a little crypto.
The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.
Again, straight out of the Trump playbook.
Depressingly so. An instruction manual for all the wrong people, a warning for everyone else.
I agree with you btw about this feeling like a crux few years for us. But for me the absolute biggest short term priority is preventing far right populism getting its mitts on government. So long as we manage to stop that we have a chance of meeting some of our many challenges. If not, forget it and we'll be looking back at today quite wistfully.
Since it seems almost impossible to deport people who shouldn't be here, it might be wiser to focus more effort on mandating assimilation. Tying welfare to language skill improvement, for example, so you can't import a large family with several people who never otherwise need to learn English.
I don't worry about assimilation as much as many on here do. Ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar don't learn the language and get on fine, likewise British ghettos in Marbella.
I'm not sure many ex-pat Brits in the UAE or Qatar actually go there as immigrants, more to make money and move on to somewhere nice, not necessarily the UK. The Spanish might disagree with you regarding non-assimilating Brits
Perhaps this has been discussed, but could your phone problems have been caused by some group?
I hesitated before raising this possibility and want to make it clear that I have no evidence -- but you do have an enemy or two. And there have been people attacking networked systems in the US, who were just trying to make a dishonest buck, or a little crypto.
The frequency of cyberattacks in the UK is I think increasing, with the British Library, M&S, JLR and various others recently suffering leaks and disruption. I tend to assume any loss is due to bad actors raging from petty thieves to Russia itself.
There's something very odd about these numbers. Perhaps the sampling. Is there an VI analysis by socio-economic group?
Right now, Yougov's sample skews well to the left of other pollsters'.
Most pollsters have the Conservatives and Reform's combined vote at c.50%, with that for Labour, Greens, Lib Dems at c.45%. With Yougov it's 44% to 49%.
We should still see movement though. It's a bit odd. Interesting to see if they've done approval ratings and have they also remained static.
Comments
Oh, that was 2015.
https://socialistalternative.info/2025/08/14/march-with-zarah-sultana-to-launch-new-left-party-in-the-north/
The "Northern Launch" scheduled for this weekend with Sultana, both on the square in front of the railway station and in the town park in Huddersfield.
An earlier pre-launch-launch-launch saw Corbyn come to Huddersfield for a big rally.
Given that, numerically at least, Huddersfield is the Green's number 1 target seat nationwide, it can only possibly be seen by the Greens as hostile action.
I think, if this is the way they play it, Polanski will have them for dinner. After all the left don't need hypnosis to make big (idiots) of themselves
The Corporate Power Reset That Makes Citizens United Irrelevant
By using their authority to define what corporations are—and what powers they hold—states can end the era of corporate and dark money in U.S. politics.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-corporate-power-reset-that-makes-citizens-united-irrelevant/
Another very good argument for setting stricter limits on corporate personhood - which has implications well beyond the US - is that it's only a matter of time before someone starts to get AIs incorporated. Given there's no theoretical limit on their numbers, giving them all of the current legal rights associated with corporations could be a very dangerous step.
https://www.trinityhouse.co.uk/lighthouses-and-lightvessels/eddystone-lighthouse
Wait different lighthouse.
(In reality, the Greens get a small fraction of the broadcaster attention certain other parties get. So ...)
But then I would think that.
https://youtu.be/8BcrS16CAaw?si=OWdeGzmP3nLWuKWM
“"The economy is broken, the health service is broken, and public services are broken. So there's a lot of mess to fix,” Sir Keir told the Mirror.”
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-fix-broken-britain-general-election-5HjcgCz_2/
It’s a very useful skill to be able to understand the gist of a conversation that others think are excluding you!
Also, if I fail to uphold their required standards of behaviour then I’ll be on a plane out first, and asking questions later. I’ll be paying for my own lawyer as well.
You have 2 starters, one as a main, and no pudding. Perhaps a coffee or a mint tea if you want to be companionable
If you earn $100k or invest $500k you can sponsor yourself for 10 years, if not then it’s sponsored employment and losing your job means losing your visa.
What a shame, Mr Putin.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Warns-of-Larger-Oil-Glut-Than-Expected.html
In its monthly report, the agency today trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for this year and next and hiked the expected supply growth, which will result in a record supply overhang. Global oil stocks are already soaring, especially oil stockpiled in tankers on water, the IEA warned.
The IEA revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, down from 740,000 bpd expected for 2025 in the September report.
The agency’s latest estimate is nearly half the demand growth expected by OPEC, which on Monday kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts at 1.3 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd, respectively.
Seems to me locals aren’t too fond of either, and who can blame them?
The particular demolished gate and gatepost I asked him to have a look out is - inevitably - about 50m in the next division, so I've been referred across.
A quick follow up call from the other Councillor, so that is quite interesting. This looks like Reform around here doing some pavement politics.
An interesting aside in the chat, that one had approached Via (who do our highways) for a crossing question (yellow lines on the corners of junctions to prevent pavement parking, and been told that they could not be done as there were not enough casualties. That's 1980s thinking, that needs to go.
The only downside is that it props up the Iranian regime. But if they're willing to promise no more Uranium enrichment, then maybe this is the right carrot. (Of course, this would effectively be a return to the Obama deal, but I'm happy to call it the Trump plan, if it succeeds.)
NASDAQ down 1.5 today
"90% of unbuilt planning permissions are 18m+"
This is the height at which the new and awful 'Building Safety Regulator' (est. April 2023) kicks in.
Home building has *collapsed* since then - average time for approval with this one regulator is now 9 months.
Buildings have been rejected by this regulator for things as trivial as exit signage being *two millimetres* too small.
Homes that were perfectly safe have been rigidly rejected by a crazy level of safetyism that makes new homes uneconomical to build. And there's nothing less safe than a homelessness crisis.
The regulator is barely two years old. In its short life it has driven home building into the dirt. All of its incentives are to block, with no incentives to build. Get rid.
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1978076387501105507
Particularly if you are dealing with a pedantic inspector, the process can be interminable.
And of course 90% of existing stock would not meet the regulations at all.
Needs a pragmatism/reasonableness test inserting, at the very least.
You can abolish private landlords and a wealth tax can fund their pet projects. Utterly deluded.
I am reeling.
Lower oil prices help pretty much everyone but the Saudis and Putin. The former are easily placated by the Americans, and are in the best place to hoover up once Russia goes bust. Which it will, pretty damn quickly if it can’t give away the stuff. Right now half of Russia doesn’t even have petrol.
Meanwhile, we might finally have a driver of growth and a tamer of inflation across the Western world.
The UK is forecast to be the second-fastest growing of the world's most advanced economies this year, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rates of growth remain modest at 1.3% for this year and next, but that outperforms the other G7 economies apart from the US in 2025, in a torrid year of trade and geopolitical tensions.
However, UK inflation is set to rise to the highest in the G7 in 2025 and 2026, the IMF predicts, driven by larger energy and utility bills.
UK inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026 but the IMF says this will be "temporary", and fall to 2% by the end of next year.
The G7 are seven advanced economies - the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan - but the group doesn't include fast-growing economies such as China and India.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn092p27xn0o
Pledge 1 - No new developments anywhere
Pledge 2 - Billions for the WASPI women.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1978086978965975403
https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2025/september/brand-new-express-bakerloop-service-launching-this-weekend-with-free-travel-in-the-first-week
TV industry is run by Oxbridge gang, says Grange Hill creator
Phil Redmond claims TV bosses are ‘bringing in their mates’ and lack knowledge of the working class
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/14/phil-redmond-oxbridge-gang-television/?recomm_id=2a12996f-99ba-4cf7-aa32-62b99e24d63c
https://x.com/mrtimdunn/status/1978096038180163678?s=61
https://x.com/MrTimDunn/status/1218244547693760514
https://x.com/MrTimDunn/status/1344214658228637696
At least stock prices are totally objective, unlike much one might read about the war.
I keep reading that the oil depot at Feodosia is still on fire after two days, but can I be certain about it? Only takes a couple of doctored photos, or old ones from a few weeks ago, to convince me and a few optimistic Ukranian bloggers.
Same with Russian petrol stations being empty, is it a handful of them or is it nearly all of them, we really have no idea.
Anyone any contacts in the Kaliningrad territory?
This then stopped all development - since there was no way to prove 100% that a change would not involve a risk. Even a change to patch a known vulnerability.
This was because “and allowing the bank to operate” hadn’t been put in their remit.
If they simply blocked *everything* then all good.
LOL.
Since late 2022, the S&P 500 has swelled by nearly two-thirds, with just seven firms — all of whom have invested heavily in A.I. — driving more than half of that growth.
NY Times.
While the building was actually on fire and the cladding going up like fire lighters.
See “Bike Shedding”.
NEW THREAD
@atrupar
Mike Johnson: "I'm proud to tell you that together with my friend Speaker Ohana of the Israeli Knesset, we're gonna embark on a project together to rally speakers and presidents of parliaments around the world so that we will jointly nominate President Donald J Trump for next year's Nobel Peace Prize. No one has ever deserved that prize more, and that is an objective fact."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1978102034038448511
===
Not only is it pathetic (do these people have no self-respect?) - they miss a monumental key point. The minute he gets the prize he gives up on any peace seeking whatsoever.
Keep the carrot in front of the donkey.
Basically, this department had the computer contract for a well-known airline. These changes I was rejecting for incomplete instructions were basically, that thing you did for us last Monday, and the Monday before that, and every Monday for the past five years – do it again.
And because this team had been doing it every week, no-one had noticed the directions had not kept pace with myriad minor upgrades over the years.
So they stopped asking me.
Pledge 4 - Abolish tuition fees
I’m not really going for the greens. Just wondering if they will get the same level of scrutiny as Reform.
At least, in their favour, they have principles and policies.
I don’t think they’re a thread to you either. I don’t their brand of Gaza/Gender/wealth tax/landlords evil politics will hit home where you’re strong.
Did the job. But the jabs would be better.
I'd like to see a ban on "broken" and "fix" unless we're talking about a machine or a heart.
The UK property 'industry' deserves a regulatory beating after what its done, of course they'll scream that we're hurting the home buyers but they've been fucking them for a good while. Look over the last decades profit margins of large developers.
I hesitated before raising this possibility and want to make it clear that I have no evidence -- but you do have an enemy or two. And there have been people attacking networked systems in the US, who were just trying to make a dishonest buck, or a little crypto.
Problem is, he's been right for forty years...