An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
In today's entry of This Is Not Normal™ is council by-election turnout. And when it's high(er), who's winning them?https://t.co/NCsIkop9Wn pic.twitter.com/9YbxtTxLA1
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Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Mike Johnson: "I'm proud to tell you that together with my friend Speaker Ohana of the Israeli Knesset, we're gonna embark on a project together to rally speakers and presidents of parliaments around the world so that we will jointly nominate President Donald J Trump for next year's Nobel Peace Prize. No one has ever deserved that prize more, and that is an objective fact."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1978102034038448511
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Not only is it pathetic (do these people have no self-respect?) - they miss a monumental key point. The minute he gets the prize he gives up on any peace seeking whatsoever.
Keep the carrot in front of the donkey.
Poor people don't vote but angry people do. Got to keep kicking those you don't like (religion, colour, class, sex etc) A constant search for relevance by ganging up on others.
[FPT 2: Of the 10 least deprived constituencies, half are LibDem. Explanations welcome]
What's the baseline here?
54% of by-elections with higher than normal turnout are being won by Reform. Yes, and . . . ?
What's the percentage of overall by-elections being won by Reform?
Or what's the percentage of by-elections with low turnout being won by Reform?
If Reform are winning, say, 55% of by-elections in general, including 54% with higher turnout, then the higher turnout percentage is not especially significant. If they're winning 70% of by-elections in general, then they're actually doing worse, not better, on higher turnout elections. If they're winning 30% of by-elections in general, then they're doing better as implied.
You need a baseline or context to go with percentages.
Although one has to wonder what the actual committee thinks of such a heavily organised campaign!
That is good. It means that such voters are still engaged with the democratic process.
Back in the early 60's when Jo Grimond had revitalised the old Liberal Party it started winning quite a lot of Council elections. However, when it came to a General Election the people who'd let the Libs get on with it also turned out to vote, so that although the Liberal NUMBERS were the same, the previous non-voting Conservative and Labour voters swamped the Liberals so that although a few seats were won it was nowhere the number that the excitable had 'predicted'.
I'm wary of the idea of jabs, these things can have side-effects or consequences in general. Surgery is unpleasant too.
Personally I'm coming up to the second anniversary of switching to a carnivore diet and that's worked very well for me. It is strange now looking back at old pictures and realising how I used to look but thankfully not anymore.
I'm now over 60 lbs down and keeping it off. Just eat more meat.
Currently the large developers have oligopoly control over the market being the only ones that get permission and facing little to no competition. They can play the system to get permission for large developments then drip-feed the homes at their own liking to maximise profits with no threat of anyone else beating them to market.
Whereas in Japan which has a zonal system that anyone can construct in development zones, without seeking a neighbour or council's permission, so long as its built to the right standards, there are not large developers making obscenely large profits because anyone can compete to build a home. Most homes aren't built a block at a time, but a house a time instead. Meaning small firms can do the job that's needed, making smaller but real profits, without getting tangled in our broken planning system.
1/ NEW: trans identification is in free fall among the young
(h/t @FIRE data in particular)
2/ Non-conforming sexual identity (queer, questioning, etc) is also in sharp decline.
Gay and lesbian are stable while heterosexuality has rebounded by around 10 points since 2023.
https://x.com/epkaufm/status/1978074195767480659?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Now weep for the young people mutilated - because a bunch of creeps hijacked teenage angst, and a lot of lefties and politicians who should know better supported this madness
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy50zp3dvxro
Reform has won 47 out of 125 seats fought in by-elections since the 2025 locals. 37.6%
So they are doing better in high turnout by-elections
The next election is the angry group v the OMG we can’t allow Farage to be PM group .
So anger v fear and how that plays out re tactical voting .
Most impressive.
Cider and apple wine under way.
https://news.sky.com/story/uks-most-remote-pub-the-old-forge-cancels-harry-potter-themed-halloween-party-after-backlash-13450033
The collapse in trans identifying kids is a calamity for the cause. It all depended on them
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/sturgeon-calls-sandie-peggie-brave-090921397.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABXC1MAy9lk43JcLvLF0eFNjdnAXHaiM31v3gVkXWe7ZQwUDIS85P4iNCY9g3WxX4pBrpj-b6CN8cjKtP-2MXG_F4EWqH-x84ivCHY9dxK-eriy9ZiolHZ8RexoybR9CbXWJoQbcXwDZaulrJ-E0lB_OHS0y5pLqH2IfullS_mYz
The question -really- is whether they go down the path of building enrichment facilities again. Hopefully, we can get the carrot and the stick right and prevent it.
(We also sometimes ate at the NTS Mackintosh designed https://www.houseforanartlover.co.uk/ at Bellahouston for lunch, ditto and ditto also apply. It's on the SW side of the city, may be more convenient if heading through, if the Kingston Bridge route is what you want (the view from that would be good) - parking for lunch would be easier too.) Edit: check whether Rangers are playing at home that day. This will affect traffic in the area, as Ibrox is just to the north of Bellahouston.
If - if - the upshot of the last few years is 'this is largely social contagion rather than there being a genuine case of "being in the wrong body"', then those who lean to the 'if they want to change sex he best approach is to encourage and facilitate' are surely calamitously wrong?
That's why his negotating position is even more of Ukraine than I currenrly control, plus Ukraine defanged and not in the Western sphere of influence.
And that's understandably unacceptable to Zelenskky (who has -after a poor start- played this perfectly): Zelenskky offered what looks like peace to Trump, but to Putin like defeat.
Hopefully, with attacks on Russian infrastructure intensifying, and their summer offensive having gone into reverse, Russia's ability to pursue further attacks becomes limited, while the Russian economy deteriorates.
But... sadly.... I don't really see the war ending without Putin's departure. He's only President for Life.
There are two somewhat different issues here: 1. the medicalising of teenage gender fluidity, 2. The politicising of pre-op trans women as threats in single sex spaces.
https://www.nms.ac.uk/national-museum-of-rural-life
That doesn’t mean teenage angst is trivial. It is not at all. It does mean we should resist (and should have resisted) any attempts to give them life changing pills and treatment before the age of 18
Basically, our take on most things is "there's a lot of ruin in a nation", and you do more damage by reflexive behaviours than by just ignoring it, and waiting until it goes away.
My view has always been - and I've repeated it 100x on here - use whatever pronouns you like (i.e. be polite to people and treat them as they would like to be treated), but no sport and no access to single sex spaces. I would, however, make accomodartions in terms of creation of gender neutral bathrooms.
That is literally the most centrist dad take you can have.
And guess what? It was the right take, and didn't involve being a total cock to people.
You have SOME centrist Dad characteristics, but that’s different. So do I at times
He surprised me by saying without me prompting that most of HMT is now disillusioned with this current government, having welcomed them after several years of decay under the Conservatives. He said that Reeves and her team has virtually been sidelined, or sidelined themselves, and that most of the work is being done by Torsten Bell and his RF cronies, who never listen to official advice and have, even for Think-Tankers, completely exaggerated ideas of their own intelligence. And he claimed that Reeves is like a rabbit in headlights on growth, not having the faintest idea how to stimulate it. He maintains that she's well-meaning, but doesn't have any idea what she's doing.
That last point, anyway, I'd come to realise myself after about a week of watching her, but I thought his other comments were interesting. The choice between Reeves and Bell is basically one between incompetence and disaster.
Brent down 2.5% today, to $61.50 or thereabouts, a year’s low.
Iranian oil pumping would mean Putin wouldn’t be able to give away the stuff, even if his refineries and storage weren’t being bombed to bits.
I had great hopes for Reeves, based on her Mais lecture of 2024. However, she has gravely disappointed and I suspect no Labour recovery is possible without her departure. She is simply politically and managerial lay inept.
I see Bell is being talked up as the new bogeyman, but he was very effective at the Resolution Foundation. I suspect at least some of the criticism comes from those who are simply against higher taxes of any kind.
What’s most notable here is the suggestion that Reeves has lost control of Treasury altogether.
When my sister was about 10 she liked to dress as a guy and insisted on being called Kevin (we negotiated her down to “Jason”).
After a couple of years she grew out of it and is now a happy & fulfilled mother of 3.
You can be kind and respectful without facilitating life changing surgery or medication
When the history of it is written, I’m convinced we’ll conclude it was largely a St Petersburg psyop campaign that was more successful at sowing Western social discord than they can ever have dreamt.
What a hot mic moment:
Carney: "I'm glad you upgraded me to President!"
Trump: "Oh did I say that? At least I didn't say Governor!"
https://nitter.poast.org/tomhfh/status/1978018912429068569#m
Not that Trump has never been funny before, but he doesn't seem to do it very much now, being too full of rage and begging for praise.
Talking of Reform, Sir Nigel Snowflake is very angry that the Afghan who almost assassinated him by YouTube only got 5 years. There was a (lefty?) Barrister from some posho chambers on earlier suggesting that Sir Nigel is inconsistent, the impression given was hanging being too good for the Afghan at the same time Sir N. (presumably) would be content if our Lucy gets to pick her Parliamentary constituency.
Parents were (and still are) being forced to accept this nonsense and kids are still being brainwashed by NHS trans activists and unionised teachers.
I'm glad to see the trend is reversing but there is a long way to go and God help those kids who were mutilated during this craze who, unlike your sister, didn't get a chance to grow out of it.
Thank God her mum is sensible and said No. Not a thing until you’re 18. Pronouns fine, surgery no bloody way. Kind but firm as @StillWaters puts it
She’s now forgotten the whole trans thing and is happily female, wears dresses, and is voluptuously in love with some young Brazilian guy - who loves her right back. Yay
But I feel for those families where it didn’t turn out this way
@SpencerHakimian
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51m
CNN on Republican Gerrymandering:
"Democrats could lose 19 SEATS! This is a HUGE amount.”
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1978139228362993875
Presumably the legal cases against GOP or Dem gerrymandering in different states will cost millions, then the Supreme Court will conclude and present its rear to Trump?
"Voluptuously in love" sounds tooth-rottingly sweet but somehow sordid at the same time, like a decaying trifle.
https://ivn.us/posts/10-worst-gerrymandered-states-country-2025-08-18
Houses of Multiple Occupancy. Look at it. GPs on demand. Luxury flats. Nice new kitchens and bathrooms. Heating on high. All paid for by us
And the kicker is, the sweet asylum seeker is from… Turkey
https://x.com/orlaminihane/status/1978107248820822050?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Despite being " no angel" as I think the common description is I don't recall him being considered a terrorist or potential terrorist by the state at any point.
Perhaps the officers who stopped him have access to intelligence that he is. Or it might be a misuse of police powers. One or the other I suppose !
Labour won a huge majority on a relatively small share of the vote, which was itself relatively small. Looking at percentages of the GE 24 vote is a bit of red herring I think.
Good luck with expecting a party led by an ex Conservative, and a weekly intake of the very same failed Conservative politicians defecting to the Refukkers to sort their mess out.