Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
As service cuts rarely deliver anything like the savings they promise isn't a £12b loss on stamp duty without a replacement tax something of a very unserious proposal?
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
First time buyers don't buy average priced houses. They buy starter homes.
Even starter homes in London, Surrey, Berkshire, Bucks, Hertfordshire etc are on average above £300k
In the better parts of England, i.e. not London and the South East, they are under £300k.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Abolishing stamp duty will make sod all difference. The housing market is not rational. Buyers start by asking what is the maximum they can borrow, and then buy houses priced at that amount. Nothing else is bought like that. No-one buys a car depending on the maximum they can finance. Abolishing stamp duty just increases the bid price.
And we know this will happen because we have already seen it at least twice, when dual-income families came to dominate the market, and when interest rates fell to near-zero. Increasing the amount people *can* pay for houses just increases the amount people *do* pay for houses.
Only because supply exceeds demand.
Constrain demand and increase supply sufficiently and prices will come crashing down, especially at the bottom of the market.
This is particularly true at the 1st time buyer end of the market (where almost any house will do).
Stopping farmhouses in the Cotswolds being mega-bucks is basically impossible - demand will always massively exceed supply - but it's perfectly possible to get sufficiently large supply of 3 bed terraces in reasonable areas that their price drops to the build cost.
Afternoon all, been away for a bit having non politics obsessive fun instead. Luke Tryl suggesting if there is no bounce from this its difficult to see what moves the dial outside a Black Swan event. Certainly red meat for the Thatcherite element and should help them in the blue wall with younger aspirational for home owning voters and pensioner downsizers. I think as big an announcement in practical terms was the funding boost for CCA and local elections campaigns. Stopping or arresting the bleeding in councils is a big factor in any comeback, the need for local representation, door knockers, a presence.. Much preferable to not have a speech and conference obsessed with FagAsh and co. Last conference so if she gets a bounce, given the government's numerous serious issues atm, maybe its her turn to be a lucky general. Or maybe its already over for the blues and this all falls flat.
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Yes. She was also the MP for Bromsgrove before Saj.
Julie Kirkbride MP got into trouble during the expenses scandal. Dierdre was the Weatherfield One, jailed for fraud.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
Why didn't you do this over 14 years? In fact you did the opposite. And you have confirmed you want the biggest welfare spending, pensions, to increase faster than the economy for another decade already.
If you want to pitch as the grown up party on the economy, regurgitating this failed crap is not good enough.
What with Jenrick's racism and Badenoch's wildly unfunded tax and spend policies I can understand why voters are heading to Reform. If it is fantasy politics one is after, one might as well go for the real deal.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
So, utter bollocks then.
Cutting welfare spending is plausible and possible - Reeves has failed at it, but only because her MPs are all idiots who believe in a mixture of the magic money tree and taxation until the pips squeak*.
Reducing the civil service to its pre-covid size will be difficult (because the civil service will make it so), but shouldn't be impossible if a government is determined.
Net Zero does cost plenty of money, some of which would be saved be scrapping it (eg Mad Milibands Carbon Capture and Storage £22bn folly).
It might be better to use the resultant savings to close the deficit, but that's a whole separate discussion.
* the fact that most of the pips are already squeezed beyond squeaking is a big cause of our current economic malaise, but that's a whole separate problem.
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Yes. She was also the MP for Bromsgrove before Saj.
Julie Kirkbride MP got into trouble during the expenses scandal. Dierdre was the Weatherfield One, jailed for fraud.
I sometimes mistakenly conflate the actual with the fictional.
Although certain parallels do catch the eye. (They are both blonde for example).
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Yes. She was also the MP for Bromsgrove before Saj.
Julie Kirkbride MP got into trouble during the expenses scandal. Dierdre was the Weatherfield One, jailed for fraud.
I sometimes mistakenly conflate the actual with the fictional.
Although certain parallels do catch the eye. (They are both blonde for example).
As I said, Julie Kirkbride MP got into trouble during the expenses scandal. Dierdre was the Weatherfield One, jailed for fraud.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Yes. She was also the MP for Bromsgrove before Saj.
Julie Kirkbride MP got into trouble during the expenses scandal. Dierdre was the Weatherfield One, jailed for fraud.
I sometimes mistakenly conflate the actual with the fictional.
Although certain parallels do catch the eye. (They are both blonde for example).
And both were accused of dodgy financial dealings.
To keep the PB lawyers from panic attacks I thought it better not to mention any potentially indiscreet financial management issues, so I won't.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
Simon Marks on LBC says the Insurrection Act of 1807 will be invoked and we will see US Federal troops on the streets. Marks explains that Stephen Miller talks about the President's "plenary authority" and has said Democrat grandees will be exiled.
At least the Nazis had the decency (sic) to cobble together an actual fire, the MAGAs are just going to babble on about potential trans pyromaniacs chiselling Fck Trump on their firelighters and start from there.
That's not quite right - I don't think that the Reichstag fire was anything to do with the Nazis, they just brilliantly exploited the aftermath. Marinus van de Lubbe was the arsonist.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
So, utter bollocks then.
Cutting welfare spending is plausible and possible - Reeves has failed at it, but only because her MPs are all idiots who believe in a mixture of the magic money tree and taxation until the pips squeak*.
Reducing the civil service to its pre-covid size will be difficult (because the civil service will make it so), but shouldn't be impossible if a government is determined.
Net Zero does cost plenty of money, some of which would be saved be scrapping it (eg Mad Milibands Carbon Capture and Storage £22bn folly).
It might be better to use the resultant savings to close the deficit, but that's a whole separate discussion.
* the fact that most of the pips are already squeezed beyond squeaking is a big cause of our current economic malaise, but that's a whole separate problem.
We're squeezing our juiciest pips less than we have at times in the past and less than some other countries squeeze theirs. I'm not advocating necessarily that we should squeeze them more and I don't agree with the left-wing of the Labour Party on this topic, but I'm not convinced by the pips' squeaking that they are actually being squeezed all that hard. I may have abused that metaphor too much...
Kemi's replacement? Katie Lam down from 25/1 to 16/1 on Lads since yesterday. Only 3 ahead of her - Jenrick, Cleverly and Boris. I've dipped in before it drops further
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Yes. She was also the MP for Bromsgrove before Saj.
Julie Kirkbride MP got into trouble during the expenses scandal. Dierdre was the Weatherfield One, jailed for fraud.
Anne Kirkbride was also in the excellent Jack Rosenthal drama, Another Saturday and a sweet FA.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
I’d be interested to know how this compares to complaints about the previous council. If I had a mortgage, I don’t, I’d bet it that it’s not too dissimilar.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
I’d be interested to know how this compares to complaints about the previous council. If I had a mortgage, I don’t, I’d bet it that it’s not too dissimilar.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
I’d be interested to know how this compares to complaints about the previous council. If I had a mortgage, I don’t, I’d bet it that it’s not too dissimilar.
Certainly I think 'nobody knows the trouble ive seen' crybabyism is very on brand for Grimes
While the answer expected is Brexit, maybe Kemi would say it was many years of a very conservative party in government in Poland.
It's because they started from a lower base and attracted a good deal of foreign investment. Brexit will have helped boost that, probably, with entrepreneurial ex-pats returning home from the UK ?
Economic growth in South Korea vs. Poland since 1991.
Korea's industrial policy = build industries from scratch
Poland's industrial policy = take FDI and build for foreigners
Kemi's okay if a bit schoolmarmish Her new "golden rule" is that for every pound saved, half or more will be allocated to reducing government debt. From the standpoint of fiscal sanity this improves on Rishi Sunak's pledge that every pound of reduced spending would be spent on tax cuts
Not debt. Deficit.
What this means is that she's saying it's fine to cut taxes when there's still a large deficit. Surely the deficit should be cut first, and taxes cut later?
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
If it moves the polls it will be more due to Tory considerers hardening than direct switchers initially i'd think Stamp duty makes an interesting divergence though - Greens Maoist Landlord purge versus Tory aspirational homeowner tax cuts.
Wow. Kemi has blown up one of the great intellectual pillars of Brexit: remove the undercutting foreigners and our native workforce will bloom into a teaming forest of productivity. Someone, presumably Nigel, will need to rebut this line of argument or it will kill the Brexit brand.
Kemi's replacement? Katie Lam down from 25/1 to 16/1 on Lads since yesterday. Only 3 ahead of her - Jenrick, Cleverly and Boris. I've dipped in before it drops further
Katie Lam was first elected in 2024 and is not even on the Opposition front bench. Leader one day perhaps but not now.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
I think this might, and I say that just because of the circumstances in which the pledge has been made.
There have been many Tory voters departing for Reform in the past 12 months. Some of this is fuelled very much by Reform’s message, but some of it is fuelled by the fact that the Tories have been somewhat forgotten since the GE.
This is the sort of policy that is eye catching and makes a lot of people feel positive. Let’s leave aside the deliverability for the moment.
It’s not on its own going to propel the Tories into an election winning position of course. Far from it. But it is the sort of thing that could make that Tory voter who was toying with Reform think “actually, that is the sort of policy I like. I’ll start listening to what they have to say again”. It might be worth a few points back, which would still leave them in the doldrums but at least keep them in contention.
I agree with others that if it doesn’t shift the polls, it is pretty difficult to see what will.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
Why didn't you do this over 14 years? In fact you did the opposite. And you have confirmed you want the biggest welfare spending, pensions, to increase faster than the economy for another decade already.
If you want to pitch as the grown up party on the economy, regurgitating this failed crap is not good enough.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
I think this might, and I say that just because of the circumstances in which the pledge has been made.
There have many Tory voters departing for Reform in the past 12 months. Some of this is fuelled very much by Reform’s message, but some of it is fuelled by the fact that the Tories have been somewhat forgotten since the GE.
This is the sort of policy that is eye catching and makes a lot of people feel positive. Let’s leave aside the deliverability for the moment.
It’s not on its own going to propel the Tories into an election winning position of course. Far from it. But it is the sort of thing that could make that Tory voter who was toying with Reform think “actually, that is the sort of policy I like. I’ll start listening to what they have to say again”. It might be worth a few points back, which would still leave them in the doldrums but at least keep them in contention.
I agree with others that if it doesn’t shift the polls, it is pretty difficult to see what will.
Id tend to agree with that. Its about being in a position to fight. Going in to a campaign Ref 35 Lab 20 Con 17 LD 14 etc they struggle to finish third or even fourth in seats Going in to a campaign Ref 28 Lab 23 Con 23 LD 12 etc (say) and the games afoot
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
A Teams call? Or Zoom?
The NHS will only use Teams. Social Services will only use Zoom. Or vice versa.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
First time buyers don't buy average priced houses. They buy starter homes.
Even starter homes in London, Surrey, Berkshire, Bucks, Hertfordshire etc are on average above £300k
In the better parts of England, i.e. not London and the South East, they are under £300k.
So? Those areas are now Reform v Labour battlegrounds mainly, it is London and the Home Counties where the Tories are often still the main alternative to Labour and the LDs and where Kemi needs to shore up her base
Kemi's replacement? Katie Lam down from 25/1 to 16/1 on Lads since yesterday. Only 3 ahead of her - Jenrick, Cleverly and Boris. I've dipped in before it drops further
Katie Lam was first elected in 2024 and is not even on the Opposition front bench. Leader one day perhaps but not now.
I suspect more likely she will defect to Reform before the election to try and solve his “women problem” and with an admiration to be his heir apparent.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Here's a visual representation of who will benefit from the removal of Stamp Duty. Average House Prices by Constituency. It's looking more like a desperate stunt rather than taking on Reform or even Labour. Who was it said they think CCHQ has it in for her?
So massive benefit for house buyers in London and the home counties, exactly the area swing voters are most likely to consider Kemi's Conservatives and where Reform are less popular
Can't put up a second pic but do you want to check your understanding against the latest Election Maps? South East is a sea of the other kind of blue.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
First time buyers don't buy average priced houses. They buy starter homes.
Even starter homes in London, Surrey, Berkshire, Bucks, Hertfordshire etc are on average above £300k
In the better parts of England, i.e. not London and the South East, they are under £300k.
So? Those areas are now Reform v Labour battlegrounds mainly, it is London and the Home Counties where the Tories are often still the main alternative to Labour and the LDs and where Kemi needs to shore up her base
Kemi's replacement? Katie Lam down from 25/1 to 16/1 on Lads since yesterday. Only 3 ahead of her - Jenrick, Cleverly and Boris. I've dipped in before it drops further
Katie Lam was first elected in 2024 and is not even on the Opposition front bench. Leader one day perhaps but not now.
She dresses like Mrs Thatcher. I think that is qualification enough.
Although hasn't she been caught out spouting bollocks this week? Not that that would necessarily disqualify her from the leadership of the Conservative Party.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
I think this might, and I say that just because of the circumstances in which the pledge has been made.
There have been many Tory voters departing for Reform in the past 12 months. Some of this is fuelled very much by Reform’s message, but some of it is fuelled by the fact that the Tories have been somewhat forgotten since the GE.
This is the sort of policy that is eye catching and makes a lot of people feel positive. Let’s leave aside the deliverability for the moment.
It’s not on its own going to propel the Tories into an election winning position of course. Far from it. But it is the sort of thing that could make that Tory voter who was toying with Reform think “actually, that is the sort of policy I like. I’ll start listening to what they have to say again”. It might be worth a few points back, which would still leave them in the doldrums but at least keep them in contention.
I agree with others that if it doesn’t shift the polls, it is pretty difficult to see what will.
It is true, to contradict my earlier comments, that parties often see a small upwards blip in their polling following conference. The media coverage brings attention, whether or not the leader's speech contains some eye-catching pledge.
I suspect what matters is how people's sense of a party changes in the long-term (which stuff like this can contribute to).
Simon Marks on LBC says the Insurrection Act of 1807 will be invoked and we will see US Federal troops on the streets. Marks explains that Stephen Miller talks about the President's "plenary authority" and has said Democrat grandees will be exiled.
At least the Nazis had the decency (sic) to cobble together an actual fire, the MAGAs are just going to babble on about potential trans pyromaniacs chiselling Fck Trump on their firelighters and start from there.
I dunno, that Judge Diane Goldstein saw her seaside property spontaneously combust with her husband and son inside, although I believe they both escaped albeit with serious injury.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Here's a visual representation of who will benefit from the removal of Stamp Duty. Average House Prices by Constituency. It's looking more like a desperate stunt rather than taking on Reform or even Labour. Who was it said they think CCHQ has it in for her?
So massive benefit for house buyers in London and the home counties, exactly the area swing voters are most likely to consider Kemi's Conservatives and where Reform are less popular
Can't put up a second pic but do you want to check your understanding against the latest Election Maps? South East is a sea of the other kind of blue.
So once again the Tories have committed to both extra expenditure and tax cuts. As others have said, they need to be doing the opposite. They have no credibility on reducing spending on unspecified cuts or reduction in Civil Service numbers - if there was anything left to cut, the Tories would have already done it. They had 14 years.
On cuts, I want to hear them say - government will no longer provide this particular service, with reasons why it's unnecessary, and a clear costed saving. And most of it will have to be pensions or health, because nearly everything else needs more resources, if anything.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
Why didn't you do this over 14 years? In fact you did the opposite. And you have confirmed you want the biggest welfare spending, pensions, to increase faster than the economy for another decade already.
If you want to pitch as the grown up party on the economy, regurgitating this failed crap is not good enough.
The deficit fell from 10% to 2% from 2010 to 2016
Maybe all governments should have one term limits. No need for elections and then you don't have all the nonsense that comes with a second term.
The Persecution of Darren Grimes: A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
I’d be interested to know how this compares to complaints about the previous council. If I had a mortgage, I don’t, I’d bet it that it’s not too dissimilar.
Send in your own FOI request
Perhaps rephrase it so it doesn’t sound like an order.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
First time buyers don't buy average priced houses. They buy starter homes.
Even starter homes in London, Surrey, Berkshire, Bucks, Hertfordshire etc are on average above £300k
In the better parts of England, i.e. not London and the South East, they are under £300k.
So? Those areas are now Reform v Labour battlegrounds mainly, it is London and the Home Counties where the Tories are often still the main alternative to Labour and the LDs and where Kemi needs to shore up her base
Yes, the current second place nap on nowcast shows where Tory potential is https://www.nowcast.uk/
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
If it moves the polls it will be more due to Tory considerers hardening than direct switchers initially i'd think Stamp duty makes an interesting divergence though - Greens Maoist Landlord purge versus Tory aspirational homeowner tax cuts.
Not before time. But stamp duty not being offset by an alternative tax rather than by fantasy service cuts is one to watch.
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
A Teams call? Or Zoom?
Because of time pressure and needing to spell names accurately etc I was thinking more of text chat with documents and actions, per patient. With task aggregations and alerts (based on length of time since update).
Obviously have an option to turn a conversation into a voice/video call.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
As service cuts rarely deliver anything like the savings they promise isn't a £12b loss on stamp duty without a replacement tax something of a very unserious proposal?
To make cuts work the government needs to *stop doing things*
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Tories are never ever going to do what is really necessary which is build loads more homes, many on green belt, and see the price of housing fall in real terms over time. Their voters won't have it. So you get almost entirely pointless fiscal measures instead, and they don't explain where the shortfall will be paid for.
Labour to their credit at least have the right ideas, build more homes and simplify planning, even if as yet there is little sign of an increase in construction.
If you are young and want to buy a house voting Tory will almost certainly not make it any easier for you.
I think that's right (realistically the abolition of stamp duty would probably be followed by house price inflation of maybe two thirds of the impact) but it will go down quite well. I'd anticipate a modest boost to their poll rating.
Very little moves the polls. I anticipate no short-term change.
If it moves the polls it will be more due to Tory considerers hardening than direct switchers initially i'd think Stamp duty makes an interesting divergence though - Greens Maoist Landlord purge versus Tory aspirational homeowner tax cuts.
Not before time. But stamp duty not being offset by an alternative tax rather than by fantasy service cuts is one to watch.
So once again the Tories have committed to both extra expenditure and tax cuts. As others have said, they need to be doing the opposite. They have no credibility on reducing spending on unspecified cuts or reduction in Civil Service numbers - if there was anything left to cut, the Tories would have already done it. They had 14 years.
On cuts, I want to hear them say - government will no longer provide this particular service, with reasons why it's unnecessary, and a clear costed saving. And most of it will have to be pensions or health, because nearly everything else needs more resources, if anything.
She got a D in Maths at A-Level so it's not her fault she can't make the numbers balance.
Afternoon all, been away for a bit having non politics obsessive fun instead. Luke Tryl suggesting if there is no bounce from this its difficult to see what moves the dial outside a Black Swan event. Certainly red meat for the Thatcherite element and should help them in the blue wall with younger aspirational for home owning voters and pensioner downsizers. I think as big an announcement in practical terms was the funding boost for CCA and local elections campaigns. Stopping or arresting the bleeding in councils is a big factor in any comeback, the need for local representation, door knockers, a presence.. Much preferable to not have a speech and conference obsessed with FagAsh and co. Last conference so if she gets a bounce, given the government's numerous serious issues atm, maybe its her turn to be a lucky general. Or maybe its already over for the blues and this all falls flat.
There are at least a couple more conferences before the next GE. Not sure why this one is the be all and end all.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
Kemi's replacement? Katie Lam down from 25/1 to 16/1 on Lads since yesterday. Only 3 ahead of her - Jenrick, Cleverly and Boris. I've dipped in before it drops further
Katie Lam was first elected in 2024 and is not even on the Opposition front bench. Leader one day perhaps but not now.
Don't worry about it - it won't be long before we're discussing Oxford Union committee persons and members of the Eton debating society (I forget its weird name) as the next Tory leader, let alone PM.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
So once again the Tories have committed to both extra expenditure and tax cuts. As others have said, they need to be doing the opposite. They have no credibility on reducing spending on unspecified cuts or reduction in Civil Service numbers - if there was anything left to cut, the Tories would have already done it. They had 14 years.
On cuts, I want to hear them say - government will no longer provide this particular service, with reasons why it's unnecessary, and a clear costed saving. And most of it will have to be pensions or health, because nearly everything else needs more resources, if anything.
She got a D in Maths at A-Level so it's not her fault she can't make the numbers balance.
When Rishi wanted to make maths compulsory to age 18, it was after having been surrounded by innumerate politicians.
Afternoon all, been away for a bit having non politics obsessive fun instead. Luke Tryl suggesting if there is no bounce from this its difficult to see what moves the dial outside a Black Swan event. Certainly red meat for the Thatcherite element and should help them in the blue wall with younger aspirational for home owning voters and pensioner downsizers. I think as big an announcement in practical terms was the funding boost for CCA and local elections campaigns. Stopping or arresting the bleeding in councils is a big factor in any comeback, the need for local representation, door knockers, a presence.. Much preferable to not have a speech and conference obsessed with FagAsh and co. Last conference so if she gets a bounce, given the government's numerous serious issues atm, maybe its her turn to be a lucky general. Or maybe its already over for the blues and this all falls flat.
There are at least a couple more conferences before the next GE. Not sure why this one is the be all and end all.
Because Thursday morning is too late to set out from Joan OGroats on foot for Friday breakfast in Cornwall. And the longer they seem irrelevant the more they become it.
Right now they need to be going past the government and positioning themselves as the other option to SmokeyJoe and the flagsurgents.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
The bicycle clips in the fruit bowl would have been deposited by Eabhal.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
Why didn't you do this over 14 years? In fact you did the opposite. And you have confirmed you want the biggest welfare spending, pensions, to increase faster than the economy for another decade already.
If you want to pitch as the grown up party on the economy, regurgitating this failed crap is not good enough.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
The bicycle clips in the fruit bowl would have been deposited by Eabhal.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
It is not really clear why autism or anxiety merit a blue badge or extra time in exams but since neither cost anything, it's moot.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Here's a visual representation of who will benefit from the removal of Stamp Duty. Average House Prices by Constituency. It's looking more like a desperate stunt rather than taking on Reform or even Labour. Who was it said they think CCHQ has it in for her?
Except that’s not how the housing market works, in practice you end up with a long chain of dependent sales at wildly variable prices, houses that could be all over the country.
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
A Teams call? Or Zoom?
Because of time pressure and needing to spell names accurately etc I was thinking more of text chat with documents and actions, per patient. With task aggregations and alerts (based on length of time since update).
Obviously have an option to turn a conversation into a voice/video call.
We simply have discharge co-ordinators on the staff to err, co-ordinate discharges.
Currently being sacked as part of the management headcount reduction of course. Orders from the top.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Abolishing stamp duty would pretty much pay for itself. Not wholly, but it's such a break on economic activity that it's removal would bring a hell of a lot of growth.
Also as a perspective first time buyer, I see it as a potential bung to me, so all for the good.
I am sure no seller would even dream of adjusting the sale price if they know you, and your competitors as buyers, all have an extra few thousand available.
I don't think abolishing stamp duty will have much effect on first time buyers, but that doesn't mean it doesn't need abolition as that does however solve the (massive) problem that moving from say one £500k house to another generates a whopping tax bill.
We should be encouraging people to move house whenever it makes sense for them to do so, rather than the opposite, the more efficiently the housing stock is used, the better.
It's also a big deal for business - if you're running a small business trying to buy business premises, getting whacked for a load of SDLT right at the point you are most stretched anyway by moving and disruption costs is particularly inconvenient.
The best way to help first time buyers is to reduce demand by turning immigration negative and to build more houses.
Replacing stamp duty with a different property tax would be fine, and better than stamp duty. Getting rid of it without explicitly (and realistically, not magic cuts to budgets they failed to cut over 14 years) stating how to fund that is not.
It’s mere Truss-ism.
No as it is funded by spending cuts on welfare, reductions in civil service numbers and scrapping net zero costs
Why didn't you do this over 14 years? In fact you did the opposite. And you have confirmed you want the biggest welfare spending, pensions, to increase faster than the economy for another decade already.
If you want to pitch as the grown up party on the economy, regurgitating this failed crap is not good enough.
The deficit fell from 10% to 2% from 2010 to 2016
What happened in 2016 to reverse the trend?
I feel an *innocent face* is almost obligatory there.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
It is not really clear why autism or anxiety merit a blue badge or extra time in exams but since neither cost anything, it's moot.
Extra time in exams devalues the utility derived from being able to do things quickly.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
The bicycle clips in the fruit bowl would have been deposited by Eabhal.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
It is not really clear why autism or anxiety merit a blue badge or extra time in exams but since neither cost anything, it's moot.
I could write you a thesis but I'll spare you that.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Abolishing stamp duty will make sod all difference. The housing market is not rational. Buyers start by asking what is the maximum they can borrow, and then buy houses priced at that amount. Nothing else is bought like that. No-one buys a car depending on the maximum they can finance. Abolishing stamp duty just increases the bid price.
And we know this will happen because we have already seen it at least twice, when dual-income families came to dominate the market, and when interest rates fell to near-zero. Increasing the amount people *can* pay for houses just increases the amount people *do* pay for houses.
There are quite a lot of people who buy cars based on what they can finance. And mobile phones. And holidays.
Which is great for VAT receipts and finance houses, but really not good for the long-term economy in general. Surplus money is better invested than spent on frivolities.
I still don’t understand the personal new car lease market, it’s totally crazy to borrow well into the five figures to rent or lease a heavily depreciating asset. Obviously their marketing is really good, and has convinced people that they need a better car than their neighbour.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Here's a visual representation of who will benefit from the removal of Stamp Duty. Average House Prices by Constituency. It's looking more like a desperate stunt rather than taking on Reform or even Labour. Who was it said they think CCHQ has it in for her?
Except that’s not how the housing market works, in practice you end up with a long chain of dependent sales at wildly variable prices, houses that could be all over the country.
We should worry most about taxes produce the biggest drag on the economy per £ for the treasury and not so much about who benefits.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Abolishing stamp duty will make sod all difference. The housing market is not rational. Buyers start by asking what is the maximum they can borrow, and then buy houses priced at that amount. Nothing else is bought like that. No-one buys a car depending on the maximum they can finance. Abolishing stamp duty just increases the bid price.
And we know this will happen because we have already seen it at least twice, when dual-income families came to dominate the market, and when interest rates fell to near-zero. Increasing the amount people *can* pay for houses just increases the amount people *do* pay for houses.
There are quite a lot of people who buy cars based on what they can finance. And mobile phones. And holidays.
Which is great for VAT receipts and finance houses, but really not good for the long-term economy in general. Surplus money is better invested than spent on frivolities.
I still don’t understand the personal new car lease market, it’s totally crazy to borrow well into the five figures to rent or lease a heavily depreciating asset. Obviously their marketing is really good, and has convinced people that they need a better car than their neighbour.
It would be better if the frivolities were manufactured in the UK.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
It is not really clear why autism or anxiety merit a blue badge or extra time in exams but since neither cost anything, it's moot.
Extra time in exams devalues the utility derived from being able to do things quickly.
If you are measuring whether people can do things quickly rather than do things at all you have a point.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
The bicycle clips in the fruit bowl would have been deposited by Eabhal.
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Anne Kirkbride played Deirdre Barlow on Corrie. Julie Kirkbride is a different person.
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
A Teams call? Or Zoom?
Because of time pressure and needing to spell names accurately etc I was thinking more of text chat with documents and actions, per patient. With task aggregations and alerts (based on length of time since update).
Obviously have an option to turn a conversation into a voice/video call.
Sounds like a very large Slack installation, one group per patient.
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today. Whateley suggesting that the ending of stamp duty will be paid for by cuts. There is no replacement tax ( yet) apparently.
I’d be more surprised if Whateley was not impressed.
I haven’t listened to WATO in years. I’m watching the last Michael Praed episode of Robin of Sherwood. The Greatest Enema. It’s quite good.
Listening to her speech, the single biggest problem is that all the things she says need to be done are precisely the things her party has spent a decade demonstrating that they are incapable of doing. .
Exactly.
Why should anyone believe them.
A decade in purgatory beckons.
Deservedly so
Very, very positive response to the Tories on WATO. And a blast from the past, Julie Kirkbride who is now a More in Common pollster.
Helen Whateley very impressed with Kemi today.
Didn’t Julie Kirkbride play Deirdre Barlow on Corrie?
Anne Kirkbride played Deirdre Barlow on Corrie. Julie Kirkbride is a different person.
@DecrepiterJohnL has nonetheless had discovered some uncanny similar characteristics.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
It is not really clear why autism or anxiety merit a blue badge or extra time in exams but since neither cost anything, it's moot.
Extra time in exams devalues the utility derived from being able to do things quickly.
If you are measuring whether people can do things quickly rather than do things at all you have a point.
Who gave you a like?
In a country where degrees are still a gateway to professional occupations, where you are not allowed to ask if an issue slows someone down, and where we have a productivity crisis, then exams need to take into account time taken to reach a quality point as well as the quality point.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
What about other swingers ?
Just put your car keys in the fruit bowl and behave yourself!
The bicycle clips in the fruit bowl would have been deposited by Eabhal.
But not by Terry. Because Terry keeps his clips on.
The £23b saving for curtailment of payment to lead swingers is certainly eye-catching.
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Got to say the only thing twin A has got from her autism diagnosis is a blue badge and that was more for anxiety than anything else
I am sure by accounting smoke and mirrors your daughter's blue badge equates to a £23b saving right there! Conundrum resolved.
It is not really clear why autism or anxiety merit a blue badge or extra time in exams but since neither cost anything, it's moot.
Extra time in exams devalues the utility derived from being able to do things quickly.
If you are measuring whether people can do things quickly rather than do things at all you have a point.
Who gave you a like?
In a country where degrees are still a gateway to professional occupations, where you are not allowed to ask if an issue slows someone down, and where we have a productivity crisis, then exams need to take into account time taken to reach a quality point as well as the quality point.
Exams have taken account of genuine "handicaps" (in it's broadest sense) for decades. If you don't want capable people with a handicap working in the mainstream you should have lobbied Tony Blair not to have closed down Remploy.
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
A Teams call? Or Zoom?
Because of time pressure and needing to spell names accurately etc I was thinking more of text chat with documents and actions, per patient. With task aggregations and alerts (based on length of time since update).
Obviously have an option to turn a conversation into a voice/video call.
We simply have discharge co-ordinators on the staff to err, co-ordinate discharges.
Currently being sacked as part of the management headcount reduction of course. Orders from the top.
Long years ago I had to attend discharge planning meetings. What stands out in my memory is the problems when someone.... an Occupational Therapist ...... reported that she'd (usually) made a visit to an elderly and now disabled patients house and the only toilet was upstairs. Under those circumstances there was frequently nowhere really suitable for a commode either.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Abolishing stamp duty will make sod all difference. The housing market is not rational. Buyers start by asking what is the maximum they can borrow, and then buy houses priced at that amount. Nothing else is bought like that. No-one buys a car depending on the maximum they can finance. Abolishing stamp duty just increases the bid price.
And we know this will happen because we have already seen it at least twice, when dual-income families came to dominate the market, and when interest rates fell to near-zero. Increasing the amount people *can* pay for houses just increases the amount people *do* pay for houses.
There are quite a lot of people who buy cars based on what they can finance. And mobile phones. And holidays.
Which is great for VAT receipts and finance houses, but really not good for the long-term economy in general. Surplus money is better invested than spent on frivolities.
I still don’t understand the personal new car lease market, it’s totally crazy to borrow well into the five figures to rent or lease a heavily depreciating asset. Obviously their marketing is really good, and has convinced people that they need a better car than their neighbour.
It would be better if the frivolities were manufactured in the UK.
I reckon you could probably fit a folded Brompton in the front boot of a McLaren Artura.
Excellent announcement from Kemi that a Conservative government would abolish Stamp Duty
SDLT raised 23-34 £11.6bn 22-23 £15.4bn
I don't disagree that Stamp Duty has negative effects on the housing market and mobility, but how will the tax be raised instead?
How bout cutting spending 👍
We, like most of Europe, have a choice -
Raise taxes on a dwindling workforce,
Cut benefits to politically powerful older voters,
Or borrow more, which is becoming harder and more expensive.
France has attempted all three in recent years. We (via Truss) attempted the last one. In all cases it hasn't gone well.
We could also import younger people of working age, of course #starttheboats.
And that has led to…. Not much difference in economic output.
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
A Teams call? Or Zoom?
Because of time pressure and needing to spell names accurately etc I was thinking more of text chat with documents and actions, per patient. With task aggregations and alerts (based on length of time since update).
Obviously have an option to turn a conversation into a voice/video call.
We simply have discharge co-ordinators on the staff to err, co-ordinate discharges.
Currently being sacked as part of the management headcount reduction of course. Orders from the top.
Long years ago I had to attend discharge planning meetings. What stands out in my memory is the problems when someone.... an Occupational Therapist ...... reported that she'd (usually) made a visit to an elderly and now disabled patients house and the only toilet was upstairs. Under those circumstances there was frequently nowhere really suitable for a commode either.
Tories pre speech. "We must tackle the deficit and do something for the young." After. "A £15bn bung to homeowners to inflate house prices!" Superb.
Yes, net zero spending scrapped, welfare scrapped for those with mild mental health problems who can be got back into work, overseas aid cut, no more cars for those with ADHD funded by taxpayer.
Then with those savings stamp duty scrapped benefiting young first time buyers most
Overall that's possibly true because of a more efficient market, but in terms of actual tax paid it's nonsense - Stamp Duty is primarily paid by the richest moving from mansion to mansion.
There's also no duty for first time buyers up to £300k - so a load bollocks from you there.
£300k is below even the average house price in London and the home counties so it will be very welcome to first time buyers there
Here's a visual representation of who will benefit from the removal of Stamp Duty. Average House Prices by Constituency. It's looking more like a desperate stunt rather than taking on Reform or even Labour. Who was it said they think CCHQ has it in for her?
Except that’s not how the housing market works, in practice you end up with a long chain of dependent sales at wildly variable prices, houses that could be all over the country.
We should worry most about taxes produce the biggest drag on the economy per £ for the treasury and not so much about who benefits.
Stamp duty must surely be high up there.
Has anyone prepared such a list?
[NB, I have never paid stamp duty]
Paul Johnson, formerly of the IFS, said it is the worst of many bad taxes
Badenoch explained how she will fund the 9 billion (Primary Homes only) by cancelling ev and heat pump subsidies and other climate related tax rebates, encourage north sea oil with it's increased taxes, attract the wealth creators, millionaires and entrepreneurs chased away by labour, reduce welfare (also reinstating the 2 child cap if it is abolished) and the civil service
Also lost in the stamp duty announcement was the ban on doctors striking and end of labours new union friendly laws
Of course the left will object, but for the first time she has announced a slew of policies so missing to date and there is clear water between the spend and tax of labour and reform and the conservative offer
Time will tell, but if she has given the party an audience and ended Jenrick's ambition then she has had a good day
I have said before we are not taking Stephen Miller seriously enough. The other day when he stated Trump has "plenary authority" to do whatever he wants is really very chilling.
Comments
What we need is productivity increases. Which come from mechanisation and streamlining processes.
For example, my Aunt was trying to escape from hospital. The doctors, the various care units in the hospital and the external support for elderly people were unable, apparently, to talk to each other about simple things.
I ended up sketching, in my head, a simple collaboration portal - on a per case basis. So all the concerned parties could at least talk to each other. Instead of a game of telephone tag….
Constrain demand and increase supply sufficiently and prices will come crashing down, especially at the bottom of the market.
This is particularly true at the 1st time buyer end of the market (where almost any house will do).
Stopping farmhouses in the Cotswolds being mega-bucks is basically impossible - demand will always massively exceed supply - but it's perfectly possible to get sufficiently large supply of 3 bed terraces in reasonable areas that their price drops to the build cost.
Luke Tryl suggesting if there is no bounce from this its difficult to see what moves the dial outside a Black Swan event. Certainly red meat for the Thatcherite element and should help them in the blue wall with younger aspirational for home owning voters and pensioner downsizers. I think as big an announcement in practical terms was the funding boost for CCA and local elections campaigns. Stopping or arresting the bleeding in councils is a big factor in any comeback, the need for local representation, door knockers, a presence..
Much preferable to not have a speech and conference obsessed with FagAsh and co.
Last conference so if she gets a bounce, given the government's numerous serious issues atm, maybe its her turn to be a lucky general.
Or maybe its already over for the blues and this all falls flat.
If you want to pitch as the grown up party on the economy, regurgitating this failed crap is not good enough.
Reducing the civil service to its pre-covid size will be difficult (because the civil service will make it so), but shouldn't be impossible if a government is determined.
Net Zero does cost plenty of money, some of which would be saved be scrapping it (eg Mad Milibands Carbon Capture and Storage £22bn folly).
It might be better to use the resultant savings to close the deficit, but that's a whole separate discussion.
* the fact that most of the pips are already squeezed beyond squeaking is a big cause of our current economic malaise, but that's a whole separate problem.
Although certain parallels do catch the eye. (They are both blonde for example).
Any ideas what may have happened in the interim?
https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3m2oguuiqos2h
A Freedom of Information (FOI) request by The Northern Echo revealed there have been 172 complaints about councillors in the four months since May 1's council election, with 34 leading to investigations - 21 of those against deputy leader Darren Grimes.
Complaints against the Reform UK board member included allegations of bringing the council into disrepute, failing to treat people with respect and not representing people of a differing view.
Cllr Grimes said the complaints highlighted the "scandal of persecution" against him for "speaking common sense" and vowed not be "silenced".
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/25506725.durham-reforms-darren-grimes-slams-11-000-complaint-costs/
Brexit will have helped boost that, probably, with entrepreneurial ex-pats returning home from the UK ?
Economic growth in South Korea vs. Poland since 1991.
Korea's industrial policy = build industries from scratch
Poland's industrial policy = take FDI and build for foreigners
Very different strategies, similar results.
https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1975394436374012084
We, of course, have done neither of those things in the last decade.
Stamp duty makes an interesting divergence though - Greens Maoist Landlord purge versus Tory aspirational homeowner tax cuts.
There have been many Tory voters departing for Reform in the past 12 months. Some of this is fuelled very much by Reform’s message, but some of it is fuelled by the fact that the Tories have been somewhat forgotten since the GE.
This is the sort of policy that is eye catching and makes a lot of people feel positive. Let’s leave aside the deliverability for the moment.
It’s not on its own going to propel the Tories into an election winning position of course. Far from it. But it is the sort of thing that could make that Tory voter who was toying with Reform think “actually, that is the sort of policy I like. I’ll start listening to what they have to say again”. It might be worth a few points back, which would still leave them in the doldrums but at least keep them in contention.
I agree with others that if it doesn’t shift the polls, it is pretty difficult to see what will.
Its about being in a position to fight.
Going in to a campaign Ref 35 Lab 20 Con 17 LD 14 etc they struggle to finish third or even fourth in seats
Going in to a campaign Ref 28 Lab 23 Con 23 LD 12 etc (say) and the games afoot
Is Kemi aware that a diagnosis for say autism doesn't automatically deliver a Motability BMW X5? My son after over 20 years is still waiting for his. What benefit he did accrue from a clinical diagnosis for autism was extra time in school and university exams. I'm not sure how the £23b saving is calculated from that.
Although hasn't she been caught out spouting bollocks this week? Not that that would necessarily disqualify her from the leadership of the Conservative Party.
I suspect what matters is how people's sense of a party changes in the long-term (which stuff like this can contribute to).
Tories taking the fight to their main rivals?
On cuts, I want to hear them say - government will no longer provide this particular service, with reasons why it's unnecessary, and a clear costed saving. And most of it will have to be pensions or health, because nearly everything else needs more resources, if anything.
(I am not entirely serious)
👍
https://www.nowcast.uk/
Obviously have an option to turn a conversation into a voice/video call.
Mind, they do seem to get younger every year.
And the longer they seem irrelevant the more they become it.
Right now they need to be going past the government and positioning themselves as the other option to SmokeyJoe and the flagsurgents.
Kingston Sunflower has just won the 2.35 at Ludlow at 4/1, and is owned by Rupert Lowe, MP.
Currently being sacked as part of the management headcount reduction of course. Orders from the top.
Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/08/bank-of-england-warns-of-growing-risk-that-ai-bubble-could-burst
Mind you, I'm pretty sure the Bank uses ChatGPT for its forecasts, so...
I still don’t understand the personal new car lease market, it’s totally crazy to borrow well into the five figures to rent or lease a heavily depreciating asset. Obviously their marketing is really good, and has convinced people that they need a better car than their neighbour.
Stamp duty must surely be high up there.
Has anyone prepared such a list?
[NB, I have never paid stamp duty]
Who gave you a like?
Governor JB Pritzker
@govpritzker.illinois.gov
· 15m
I will not back down.
Trump is now calling for the arrest of elected representatives checking his power.
What else is left on the path to full-blown authoritarianism?
https://bsky.app/profile/govpritzker.illinois.gov/post/3m2orkcb74c2l
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ktXxhC5dcU
But that’s a top 0.1% dilemma.
Inside Stephen Miller’s Secret Plan to Normalize Trump’s Dictator Rule
He wants to supercharge searing civil tensions to get low-information voters to embrace their inner authoritarian. Exactly two Democrats appear to fully grasp this.
https://newrepublic.com/article/201453/inside-stephen-miller-secret-plan-normalize-trump-dictator-rule
Badenoch explained how she will fund the 9 billion (Primary Homes only) by cancelling ev and heat pump subsidies and other climate related tax rebates, encourage north sea oil with it's increased taxes, attract the wealth creators, millionaires and entrepreneurs chased away by labour, reduce welfare (also reinstating the 2 child cap if it is abolished) and the civil service
Also lost in the stamp duty announcement was the ban on doctors striking and end of labours new union friendly laws
Of course the left will object, but for the first time she has announced a slew of policies so missing to date and there is clear water between the spend and tax of labour and reform and the conservative offer
Time will tell, but if she has given the party an audience and ended Jenrick's ambition then she has had a good day
https://newrepublic.com/article/201453/inside-stephen-miller-secret-plan-normalize-trump-dictator-rule
Wake up and smell the authoritarianism.