I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
Marvellous.
I saw them on the same coast but from a distance somewhere on that drive down Big Sur to LA. They were indeed lounging on sea kelp. What a drive that is!!!
Must be thirty five years ago now. Glad to hear the otters are still there.
Not an entirely carefree existence, though. Killer whales apparently treat them as hairy popcorn.
Cleverly isn’t going to win back anyone from Reform, as he would be marketed as the godfather of Chagos. He might stop some bleed to the Lib Dems and potentially motivate some of the stay at homes. But I’m not sure he could long survive a hung parliament.
Jenrick is a tricky one. Because on the one hand why vote for him rather than the full fat version. However he’s very good at generating headlines, would appeal to those sympathetic to Reform’s policies who are allergic to Farage, and would provide the motivation to rally the blue-lipstick-on-a-pig-types. He’s also the candidate who might conceivably be able to negotiate a pact of sorts with Farage if Labour stage a polling recovery.
Kemi reminds me a bit of Billy Hague. Took the job far too early at a time when it was a poisoned chalice. Difference being that Hague held the job through an election cycle and then reinvented himself over time as a sort of older statesman. I struggle to see her doing either of those things.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
In other news, it’s still very mild here in the North East. The heating hasn’t even been touched yet. Do any PB weather nerds know if a cold winter is expected?
It has a mild three months being 1.5x more likely than normal. But there's still a 15% chance of a cold three months. Problematically, because of shifting baseline syndrome, a near-average Oct-Dec may feel cold to you, and of course a three months period that is average overall may have very cold interludes.
In terms of the global drivers of weather they are mixed. ENSO is expected to develop into a La Nina phase which would lead to a greater chance of mildish NW-ly wings, but the QBO is an easterly phase which reduces the chance of milder W-ly winds.
It looks like the signal to a milder outlook is mainly driven by the background global warming, and there's no particular reason to expect the weather to be one way or another on top of that.
Reflecting on Jenrick, I understand his ill-judged remarks were made at a private meeting last March and leaked to the Guardian. Instead of reflecting on his remarks he doubled down and is not intelligent enough to realise how damaging those comments are to both him and the debate over integration and I think it was @Gardenwalker who suggested overnight he should apologise and that would have been the right thing to do
I have a German GP, an Iranian Cardiologist, an English Dentist, an Indian Electrician, a Polish plumber, Welsh gardeners and Welsh, English, Scottish, and Iranian neighbour's all looking out for each other
So no @Roger, I do not recognize your continual attacks on the UK, admirably rejected last night by @Seal, as we are a tolerant fair minded country that is presently suffering from a vocal and nasty hard right (and hard left) because both conservative and labour governments have failed to address people’s hopes and expectations and if there is one issue that is totemic it is ‘stopping the boats’
As I have stated, I remain a conservative (non-member) as I have been since my first votes in the early 60’s but I did vote Blair twice so not entirely tribal
Badenoch has a mountain to climb and I will listen to her shortly but if she fails, probably next May, then I agree with @HYUFFD that Cleverly should be the next leader, indeed if he had not been too clever by half at the last leader election, he would be leader now
I hope the membership who may support any bid by Jenrick has joined Reform by any leader election, because if Jenrick wins then the path leads to merger with Reform
I will not support Jenrick and if he becomes leader that is the day I become politically homeless
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025 Sample size: 1,012
Melenchon's lot have split with the moderate Left. Remarkable how that poll is almost exactly the same as our polling. Lib Dems ahead of Tories for third.
I'm sorry that she hasn't been a success as leader. From what I've seen of her, I like her very much.
Good morning, everybody.
She took the leadership too young. Needed a lot more time in office and exposed to dealing with the media before running.
As I warned at the time of the last leadership election.
You know she's got major problems when I am calling her out for arrogance and a lack of self awareness.
Isn't the whispering from "senior aides" about her going if May result are bad just them buying time by forestalling a November putsch?
Potentially.
Somebody has messaged me this scenario given Jenrick doesn't want Badenoch ousted until after next year's elections.
1) Allies of James Cleverly get Badenoch ousted in November
2) They stand aside and let Jenrick become leader in November
3) The Tories are mullered in May 2026
4) Jenrick takes the blame and is ousted
5) Clearing the way for Cleverly to be coronated in late 2026.
Cleverly might be setting up the greatest ambush since Midway.
Cleverly. He's the daft sod who lost the last leadership election because he couldn't count. This plan does have the ring of truth for him and his supporters. I wouldn't expect it to end up with Cleverly as Tory leader though.
In other news, it’s still very mild here in the North East. The heating hasn’t even been touched yet. Do any PB weather nerds know if a cold winter is expected?
My colleagues who deal with forecasts for energy traders and more adept at longer range forecasting than me are suggesting all the ingredients are there for a cold winter this year.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
Marvellous.
I saw them on the same coast but from a distance somewhere on that drive down Big Sur to LA. They were indeed lounging on sea kelp. What a drive that is!!!
Must be thirty five years ago now. Glad to hear the otters are still there.
Not an entirely carefree existence, though. Killer whales apparently treat them as hairy popcorn.
They were mass genocided almost to extinction to make them Russian hats, too.
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025 Sample size: 1,012
Melenchon's lot have split with the moderate Left. Remarkable how that poll is almost exactly the same as our polling. Lib Dems ahead of Tories for third.
Yes. Uncannily close to UK polling. But we have FPTP
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
I met one on land while on a beach in an Alaskan fjord.
One point Fraser Nelson (probably) made was the Conservatives need to move on from Mrs Thatcher. It is not like she spent all her time banging on about Stanley Baldwin or even Winston Churchill.
Current state pension age is 66. 66 year olds will have been 20 when Thatcher became PM and 31 when she was ousted.
Given the age of their voters I can see why they're still in thrall to her.
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
QED - Our economic problems will be solved with the demise of the Conservative Party. I'll go along with that.
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025 Sample size: 1,012
Melenchon's lot have split with the moderate Left. Remarkable how that poll is almost exactly the same as our polling. Lib Dems ahead of Tories for third.
Melanchon and the other left parties would be under pressure to agree an electoral pact, for round 2.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
I met one on land while on a beach in an Alaskan fjord.
We first encountered sea otters in Seattle Marine park, but then on our cruise to China via Alaska we saw them at their most adorable, locked together on their backs in their thousands floating past our ship showing mild curiosity
It was a magical moment of nature in it's natural envionment
It is amazing how close they hold their young, and how they use stones as tools
When we get cheesed off with mankind, just look at nature for a natural tonic and antidote to all those upsetting feelings
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
Those are indeed the choices. But i can't see more than 5-6% of the electorate who'd vote for that viable centre-right solution, despite me thinking it's the right one.
The viable centre-left one would probably command up to 20% support.
The fudge (and do nothing about it really, other than can-kick) is 30%+ so that's where we're at.
I have a German GP, an Iranian Cardiologist, an English Dentist, an Indian Electrician, a Polish plumber, Welsh gardeners and Welsh, English, Scottish, and Iranian neighbour's all looking out for each other
Thought that was going to be a Bernard Righton-esque gag!
There’s a black fella, a Pakistani, and a Jew in a nightclub… what a fine example of an integrated community
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025 Sample size: 1,012
Melenchon's lot have split with the moderate Left. Remarkable how that poll is almost exactly the same as our polling. Lib Dems ahead of Tories for third.
Melanchon and the other left parties would be under pressure to agree an electoral pact, for round 2.
They would have fewer candidates in round 2 due to the lack of a pact for round 1.
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
Changing from tax to insurance does not reduce the amount spent or its share of GDP. It is not a magic bullet. Most of our peers with insurance-based health systems spend more than we do, sometimes even government spending is higher. And if the insurance is mandatory, it might as well be called a tax anyway.
The triple lock is imo an obsession fed by foreign trolls. In any case, pensions did used to be linked to earnings until the Conservatives changed to an inflation link in the 1980s. I'm not sure ending the triple lock would be declaring war on pensioners so much as on future pensioners, aka workers.
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025 Sample size: 1,012
Still not hugely convinced that RN will get a majority on those figures. There’s got to be the possibility of the same tactical voting shift denying them again (though I would expect them to get more seats than last time, and probably be largest party).
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
Changing from tax to insurance does not reduce the amount spent or its share of GDP. It is not a magic bullet. Most of our peers with insurance-based health systems spend more than we do, sometimes even government spending is higher. And if the insurance is mandatory, it might as well be called a tax anyway.
The triple lock is imo an obsession fed by foreign trolls. In any case, pensions did used to be linked to earnings until the Conservatives changed to an inflation link in the 1980s. I'm not sure ending the triple lock would be declaring war on pensioners so much as on future pensioners, aka workers.
There are a couple of structural advantages with mandatory health insurance instead of a tax.
One is that the health budget is separated from the other parts of the budget. Spending on the courts, education, defence, etc, no longer competes with spending on health from the same pot of tax income.
Second is that the taxpayer has some agency over which insurance provider and plan to choose, which possibly makes forking out vast sums of money psychologically more acceptable.
You might be able to achieve both of these by way of introducing a hypothecated income tax - a bit like the short-lived NHS and Social Care levy, but charged on all income, rather than as an extra National Insurance. But traditionally the Treasury has resisted hypothecation for doubtless a mix of good and bad reasons.
As a lefty I'm suspicious of mandatory health insurance as being a way for making the funding of the health service less progressive. If people on average income no longer have their health costs subsidised by those richer than them, then they will be considerably worse off. But I can see that there are advantages.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
I met one on land while on a beach in an Alaskan fjord.
As a child growing up in Hackney I regularly came across water otters. It was only much later I learned that most people called them kettles.
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
Those are indeed the choices. But i can't see more than 5-6% of the electorate who'd vote for that viable centre-right solution, despite me thinking it's the right one.
The viable centre-left one would probably command up to 20% support.
The fudge (and do nothing about it really, other than can-kick) is 30%+ so that's where we're at.
I fear your cynicism is right! I would hope that a good politicial leader would lead, and sell the solution to the public.
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025 Sample size: 1,012
Still not hugely convinced that RN will get a majority on those figures. There’s got to be the possibility of the same tactical voting shift denying them again (though I would expect them to get more seats than last time, and probably be largest party).
The combined scores for RN and the Left are almost identical to 2024. But, there’s a swing of 6% from En Marche to Les Republicans.
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
And Instagram. But having no social media presence is almost as much of a red flag. So I'll keep those for now at least.
I listened to the Jeremy Hunt interviews on The Rest Is Politics Leading. Very intelligent guy - both real world and political intelligence. He can't be the only Tory left who is a decent human being and has a political brain.
Someone needs to rescue what is left of the party before it is too late. Jenrick thinks Enoch was Right. Cleverly shouts "cos its a shithole" abuses about towns *which have a Tory MP*.
Neither of these cretins can turn things around. But Hunt could. A pity the Tories won't vote for him cos he's practically a communist or something.
The Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt. Brexit Derangement Syndrome in action.
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
People are still on WhatsApp, and not Signal or iMessage?
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
Largest Reform lead and highest vote share with pollster.
Reform's Nathan Gill confirms he shilled for Russia* . Nigel Farage explains that Trump's analysis that Paracetamol causes autism might be correct* ( although he couldn't possibly say) and Reform's polling lead increases by three.
@Steven_Swinford Exclusive from our new podcast The State of It:
Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet is divided over her future and some shadow ministers are so concerned they are considering the 'nuclear' option of resigning to precipitate a leadership contest
Allies of the Tory leader believe that she has bought herself time with a 'policy blitz' at conference, including proposals to leave the ECHR and scrap the Climate Change Act
Others believe that the party is heading for disaster in May’s local elections and are pressing for Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, to lead the party. They are incensed by the delay in making policy announcements in her first year, which they regard as a year wasted
Some are not sure they can wait that long. The Times has been told that some are considering submitting letters of no confidence as soon as November 2 - the date on which, under party rules, Badenoch’s leadership can be challenged
They have discussed the possibility that one or more of them could resign and demand her departure in an attempt to force the issue
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
In fairness to Mr Y-L re tube station (and to OGH) - that's apparently off the menu now so best amend that.
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
People are still on WhatsApp, and not Signal or iMessage?
I'm on what's app because everyone else is, it is mostly about organising parkrun or meeting up for a beer
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
I thought the tube station incident had been dismissed.
The not supplying the code for his phone looks like a straightforward case. That law, AIUI, was written to be easy to prosecute, although the police do need to have gotten their paperwork right.
Heartening to see the renewed interest in pinnipeds and other aquatic mammals on here today.
The sea is in many ways as mysterious as space. Almost all of it is beneath the surface and never seen by humans.
As Herman Melville said about whales, pretty much, in Moby Dick - he was so fascinated he was able to write a whole chapter on the prepuce of just one species of cetacean.
I got really interested in marine mammals etc. as an undergrad, and still am. I recently rediscovered my rough notes for my finals papers - I must have been the only student that year discussing the breeding systems of grey and common seals. Didn't do me any visible harm though ...
At the end of the day does it matter? The next election is decided.
Its not. Look back on previous periods of history this far out from an election. We have no idea who will lead the parties. Many think Starmer won't be Labour leader and sitting PM. Its unlikely to be Kemi. Even Davey is not certain.
A week is a long time in politics, three years is an era. In Scotland its almost a generation, at least by SNP standards.
Re: English fizz. I was at a French embassy event last week. They cheekily hinted they would be doing a Champagne vs English sparkling taste off. We were all given 2 glasses, with one clearly superior to the other. We were asked to guess where they were from.
Then when the results came out: surprise! They were both French.
One point Fraser Nelson (probably) made was the Conservatives need to move on from Mrs Thatcher. It is not like she spent all her time banging on about Stanley Baldwin or even Winston Churchill.
I'm in Bosnia. The war finished 30 years ago (actually it was just frozen, just when the Bosnian army was starting to make military progress. They reckon that if the war had run on another 3 months they would have lifted the siege of Sarajevo by military means and made inroads into the Serb occupied territories. An example that stopping a war is not all that is necessary, the aggressor needs to be defeated. There is anger that Republika Srpska is effectively the land they ethnically cleansed. Including Srebrenica. A reward for genocide). War wounds are still raw, I have spoken to people who served in ARBiH and another who was in a concentration camp at the age of 3. It is a nation (or 3 nations) with PTSD
But I digress. My point was going to be... was Europe this fucked up in 1975? When I was 10 and 30 years after WW2
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
Sorry - that' October 2026. The July was the alleged offence date, which was July 2024.
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
Those are indeed the choices. But i can't see more than 5-6% of the electorate who'd vote for that viable centre-right solution, despite me thinking it's the right one.
The viable centre-left one would probably command up to 20% support.
The fudge (and do nothing about it really, other than can-kick) is 30%+ so that's where we're at.
What’s the difference between paying a bit more tax and paying mandatory health insurance (other than ring fencing)? It’s the same thing with a different name.
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
People are still on WhatsApp, and not Signal or iMessage?
And indeed the marine mammals' ecological predecessors the JUrassic marine reptiles - it's not just goths and Austen that Whitby and Lyme Regis are famous for.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
I met one on land while on a beach in an Alaskan fjord.
We first encountered sea otters in Seattle Marine park, but then on our cruise to China via Alaska we saw them at their most adorable, locked together on their backs in their thousands floating past our ship showing mild curiosity
It was a magical moment of nature in it's natural envionment
It is amazing how close they hold their young, and how they use stones as tools
When we get cheesed off with mankind, just look at nature for a natural tonic and antidote to all those upsetting feelings
Obama’s USA. Dropping bombs on Afghan wedding parties then saying soz.
I was referring to his emerging from nowhere rather than his policies.........
As it happens I understand Obama hasn't given him his wholehearted support.......
But like Obama this guy really has talent and as the PBer who said Mike's 50/1 tip on Obama was a waste of money this is my attempt at rehabillitation.....
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
I thought the tube station incident had been dismissed.
The not supplying the code for his phone looks like a straightforward case. That law, AIUI, was written to be easy to prosecute, although the police do need to have gotten their paperwork right.
I have not seen anything about action following the tube station incident reported.
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
People are still on WhatsApp, and not Signal or iMessage?
I'm on what's app because everyone else is, it is mostly about organising parkrun or meeting up for a beer
Many people are.
Sadly, the government (and the EU) are trying to drive Signal out.
For those who want to defend that - Signal is the choice for journalists, aid agencies and the like. Because it protects privacy.
🚨 Australia captain Pat Cummins will miss the opening Ashes Test against England in Perth in late November, multiple local media outlets reported on Wednesday.
Pat Cummins to miss first Ashes Test in hammer blow for Australia
Fast bowler will not have recovered in time from back injury for match in Perth and is still a doubt for the rest of the series
I suspect he will miss the whole shebang. In some ways good news as it makes them weaker, but in other ways you want to beat the full strength convicts. Aussie in 2005 were a bit past their best but it was still a team of McGrath, Warne, Gillespie, Ponting etc.
Re: English fizz. I was at a French embassy event last week. They cheekily hinted they would be doing a Champagne vs English sparkling taste off. We were all given 2 glasses, with one clearly superior to the other. We were asked to guess where they were from.
Then when the results came out: surprise! They were both French.
What was the point of that?
To show you that there is quite nice French fizz, which you might mistake for English
Kemi's okay if a bit schoolmarmish Her new "golden rule" is that for every pound saved, half or more will be allocated to reducing government debt. From the standpoint of fiscal sanity this improves on Rishi Sunak's pledge that every pound of reduced spending would be spent on tax cuts
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
Marvellous.
I saw them on the same coast but from a distance somewhere on that drive down Big Sur to LA. They were indeed lounging on sea kelp. What a drive that is!!!
Must be thirty five years ago now. Glad to hear the otters are still there.
Not an entirely carefree existence, though. Killer whales apparently treat them as hairy popcorn.
They were mass genocided almost to extinction to make them Russian hats, too.
Exported to China I think for coats.
Overhunting them changes the marine ecosystem in question (sea otters eat sea urchins which would otherwise eat the kelp forests). A fascinating example of a keystone species - kill it and the ecosystem collapses.
In other news, it’s still very mild here in the North East. The heating hasn’t even been touched yet. Do any PB weather nerds know if a cold winter is expected?
Some suggestions of a year setting up a bit like 2010, so a very cold front end to winter, then more normal thereafter. But seasonal predictions are largely useless. I'd enjoy what you have until its gone.
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
In fairness to Mr Y-L re tube station (and to OGH) - that's apparently off the menu now so best amend that.
At the end of the day does it matter? The next election is decided.
Its not. Look back on previous periods of history this far out from an election. We have no idea who will lead the parties. Many think Starmer won't be Labour leader and sitting PM. Its unlikely to be Kemi. Even Davey is not certain.
A week is a long time in politics, three years is an era. In Scotland its almost a generation, at least by SNP standards.
I'd be very surprised if Ed was replaced. He's too successful, likeable and NOT Farage, Starmer or Badenoch.
There's very little opposition to him if any within the Party.
I listened to the Jeremy Hunt interviews on The Rest Is Politics Leading. Very intelligent guy - both real world and political intelligence. He can't be the only Tory left who is a decent human being and has a political brain.
Someone needs to rescue what is left of the party before it is too late. Jenrick thinks Enoch was Right. Cleverly shouts "cos its a shithole" abuses about towns *which have a Tory MP*.
Neither of these cretins can turn things around. But Hunt could. A pity the Tories won't vote for him cos he's practically a communist or something.
Which Tory leader would you compare Hunt to?
Is it fair to say a Michael Howard to lay the foundations of a hoped-for recovery?
Re: English fizz. I was at a French embassy event last week. They cheekily hinted they would be doing a Champagne vs English sparkling taste off. We were all given 2 glasses, with one clearly superior to the other. We were asked to guess where they were from.
Then when the results came out: surprise! They were both French.
What was the point of that?
God knows. The less good one was actually a pet nat. I assume to show off the diversity of French sparkling.
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
People are still on WhatsApp, and not Signal or iMessage?
I'm on Signal. The only other person I know who has Signal is a Project Manager from a project I worked on a few years ago.
I tried to get my knitting group to switch apps, but most people didn't want to install an extra app. Network effects mean that I have to use whatsapp because it's where everyone else is.
This is more than a little concerning, in the context. It's a very particular phrase with a very specific meaning (and doesn't actually occur in the US constitution).
Stephen Miller said the quiet part out loud. Trump has “plenary authority,” then suddenly went silent. The plan wasn’t to be made public. Clearly someone hit the panic button in his earpiece.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
I met one on land while on a beach in an Alaskan fjord.
We first encountered sea otters in Seattle Marine park, but then on our cruise to China via Alaska we saw them at their most adorable, locked together on their backs in their thousands floating past our ship showing mild curiosity
It was a magical moment of nature in it's natural envionment
It is amazing how close they hold their young, and how they use stones as tools
When we get cheesed off with mankind, just look at nature for a natural tonic and antidote to all those upsetting feelings
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation: Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article): The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
In fairness to Mr Y-L re tube station (and to OGH) - that's apparently off the menu now so best amend that.
You've clarified - thanks. I think my description is OK - Robinson did not dispute that he had laid him out, but claimed self-defence.
This is probably why it didn't proceed "The alleged victim did not want to provide a statement to the investigation, BTP said." The arrest at Luton was on suspicion of GBH, so the injuries must have been quite serious to the "alleged victim". Can't imagine why someone wouldn't give a statement against Y-L...
Here’s a thing I never thought I’d do. Although long dormant, I just deleted my FB account. I made some mildly fruity comments about an Ayrshire Hotelier in 2015 I have no wish to be reviewed at the border when I visit the in-laws at Christmas. It takes 30 days apparently (cooling off period I guess) and while I’ve no doubt the data is stored somewhere, I thought it might be prudent.
Get rid of WhatsApp as well. It’s part of the Suckerberg empire.
People are still on WhatsApp, and not Signal or iMessage?
I'm on Signal. The only other person I know who has Signal is a Project Manager from a project I worked on a few years ago.
I tried to get my knitting group to switch apps, but most people didn't want to install an extra app. Network effects mean that I have to use whatsapp because it's where everyone else is.
Signal is about to be pushed out of the EU and UK - the EU and UK governments are demanding back door.
Notably, the US has stayed silent on this. Zuckerberg wants Signal dead as a competitor to WhatsApp.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
Otters are only cute/sick/depraved in human eyes. Otherwise they are just animals doing animal things. Lions taking over a pride will murder the cubs. We would see that as awful, but we are not lions.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
While Trump and Farage are hogging the airwaves and print media, our plodding PM continues to drop the building blocks needed to sort out/destroy (optional choice depending on your view) the UK economy.
Two big Bills coming soon with be the Renters' Rights Bill designed to improve the life of renters (i.e. not pensioners) and the Employment Rights Act designed to improve the life of workers (i.e. not pensioners). The more fuss and noise being made, the more likely these will slip quietly onto the statute books. SKS likely can't believe his luck.
In other news, it’s still very mild here in the North East. The heating hasn’t even been touched yet. Do any PB weather nerds know if a cold winter is expected?
Some suggestions of a year setting up a bit like 2010, so a very cold front end to winter, then more normal thereafter. But seasonal predictions are largely useless. I'd enjoy what you have until its gone.
The then warmest and wettest winter (2013-14) started with a cold spell in November.
Sometimes the winter goes the other way, with a mild start and then cold later, due to a sudden stratospheric warning. Oftentimes meteorologists will split winter into two separate seasons, early and late, for that reason.
At the end of the day does it matter? The next election is decided.
Its not. Look back on previous periods of history this far out from an election. We have no idea who will lead the parties. Many think Starmer won't be Labour leader and sitting PM. Its unlikely to be Kemi. Even Davey is not certain.
A week is a long time in politics, three years is an era. In Scotland its almost a generation, at least by SNP standards.
I'd be very surprised if Ed was replaced. He's too successful, likeable and NOT Farage, Starmer or Badenoch.
There's very little opposition to him if any within the Party.
Yes but he's not certain, was my point. I don't expect him to be replaced.
While Trump and Farage are hogging the airwaves and print media, our plodding PM continues to drop the building blocks needed to sort out/destroy (optional choice depending on your view) the UK economy.
Two big Bills coming soon with be the Renters' Rights Bill designed to improve the life of renters (i.e. not pensioners) and the Employment Rights Act designed to improve the life of workers (i.e. not pensioners). The more fuss and noise being made, the more likely these will slip quietly onto the statute books. SKS likely can't believe his luck.
The Employment Rights Act is already leading to ever more esoteric “subcontracting” - rather than actually employing people.
Because the government is following the path already trodden in Spain and France. Ever more employment rights for “the workers”. But, in order for things not to freeze up, ever more people employed on very casual basis.
I am staring at the full moon over Monterey bay. Luminous across the waters, laying silver cobbles
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
Monterey Jack is one of the blandest cheeses known to man.
That may be so, but yesterday I went out sea kayaking and I was surrounded by otters, lying back on the kelp like pashas in furs, cracking crabs on their bellies
Magical
Now I am jealous!!!
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It was incredible. There are dozens of them, they float by unconcerned
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
Comments
Killer whales apparently treat them as hairy popcorn.
How do I get to vote no?
Jenrick is a tricky one. Because on the one hand why vote for him rather than the full fat version. However he’s very good at generating headlines, would appeal to those sympathetic to Reform’s policies who are allergic to Farage, and would provide the motivation to rally the blue-lipstick-on-a-pig-types. He’s also the candidate who might conceivably be able to negotiate a pact of sorts with Farage if Labour stage a polling recovery.
Kemi reminds me a bit of Billy Hague. Took the job far too early at a time when it was a poisoned chalice. Difference being that Hague held the job through an election cycle and then reinvented himself over time as a sort of older statesman. I struggle to see her doing either of those things.
You can find the met office seasonal outlook here for October-December: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index
It has a mild three months being 1.5x more likely than normal. But there's still a 15% chance of a cold three months. Problematically, because of shifting baseline syndrome, a near-average Oct-Dec may feel cold to you, and of course a three months period that is average overall may have very cold interludes.
In terms of the global drivers of weather they are mixed. ENSO is expected to develop into a La Nina phase which would lead to a greater chance of mildish NW-ly wings, but the QBO is an easterly phase which reduces the chance of milder W-ly winds.
It looks like the signal to a milder outlook is mainly driven by the background global warming, and there's no particular reason to expect the weather to be one way or another on top of that.
Main shift from Macron's block to Les Republicains and Zemmour's block
Reflecting on Jenrick, I understand his ill-judged remarks were made at a private meeting last March and leaked to the Guardian. Instead of reflecting on his remarks he doubled down and is not intelligent enough to realise how damaging those comments are to both him and the debate over integration and I think it was @Gardenwalker who suggested overnight he should apologise and that would have been the right thing to do
I have a German GP, an Iranian Cardiologist, an English Dentist, an Indian Electrician, a Polish plumber, Welsh gardeners and Welsh, English, Scottish, and Iranian neighbour's all looking out for each other
So no @Roger, I do not recognize your continual attacks on the UK, admirably rejected last night by @Seal, as we are a tolerant fair minded country that is presently suffering from a vocal and nasty hard right (and hard left) because both conservative and labour governments have failed to address people’s hopes and expectations and if there is one issue that is totemic it is ‘stopping the boats’
As I have stated, I remain a conservative (non-member) as I have been since my first votes in the early 60’s but I did vote Blair twice so not entirely tribal
Badenoch has a mountain to climb and I will listen to her shortly but if she fails, probably next May, then I agree with @HYUFFD that Cleverly should be the next leader, indeed if he had not been too clever by half at the last leader election, he would be leader now
I hope the membership who may support any bid by Jenrick has joined Reform by any leader election, because if Jenrick wins then the path leads to merger with Reform
I will not support Jenrick and if he becomes leader that is the day I become politically homeless
Remarkable how that poll is almost exactly the same as our polling.
Lib Dems ahead of Tories for third.
That means a mild winter is nailed on.
Given the age of their voters I can see why they're still in thrall to her.
The UK in 2025 has a mounting tax burden that takes a growing share of GDP not because we have a particularly large state but because our healthcare system is essentially all state funded and we have an ageing population.
There is a viable centre-right solution to this, which is to introduce some form of mandatory health insurance, to fund social care through putting more of the cost and the risk on to individual households, and to scrap the triple lock pension and replace it with some kind of earnings link. The reason why this is politically difficult for the Tory party is that the party has so few working age voters that this would represent a declaration of war on the party’s own base.
There’s a viable centre-left solution to this, which is to increase basic rate tax and VAT, and have some kind of property tax to pay for social care. (There is also a non-viable centre-left solution, which we are living through now, which is to force businesses to take a bath and slow growth.)
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ov7bRasBw94
The next election isn't decided until 10pm on election night.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Nigel_Farage
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/08/rachel-reeves-given-extra-3bn-for-budget-after-vat-error-fixed
"..an error in our VAT cash receipts outturn.."
It was a magical moment of nature in it's natural envionment
It is amazing how close they hold their young, and how they use stones as tools
When we get cheesed off with mankind, just look at nature for a natural tonic and antidote to all those upsetting feelings
The viable centre-left one would probably command up to 20% support.
The fudge (and do nothing about it really, other than can-kick) is 30%+ so that's where we're at.
Thought that was going to be a Bernard Righton-esque gag!
There’s a black fella, a Pakistani, and a Jew in a nightclub… what a fine example of an integrated community
https://youtu.be/BxFqv1QDI3Q?si=3tInYnBk6uTRZgQC
The triple lock is imo an obsession fed by foreign trolls. In any case, pensions did used to be linked to earnings until the Conservatives changed to an inflation link in the 1980s. I'm not sure ending the triple lock would be declaring war on pensioners so much as on future pensioners, aka workers.
One is that the health budget is separated from the other parts of the budget. Spending on the courts, education, defence, etc, no longer competes with spending on health from the same pot of tax income.
Second is that the taxpayer has some agency over which insurance provider and plan to choose, which possibly makes forking out vast sums of money psychologically more acceptable.
You might be able to achieve both of these by way of introducing a hypothecated income tax - a bit like the short-lived NHS and Social Care levy, but charged on all income, rather than as an extra National Insurance. But traditionally the Treasury has resisted hypothecation for doubtless a mix of good and bad reasons.
As a lefty I'm suspicious of mandatory health insurance as being a way for making the funding of the health service less progressive. If people on average income no longer have their health costs subsidised by those richer than them, then they will be considerably worse off. But I can see that there are advantages.
➡️ REF: 33% (+3)
🌹 LAB: 20% (=)
🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
🔶️ LDEM: 14% (=(
🟢 GRN: 8% (=)
From @Moreincommon_ / @LukeTryl
From 3rd - 6th October
Changes with 29th Sept
Largest Reform lead and highest vote share with pollster.
Me from Manchester:
How much trouble is Badenoch in? "It’s make or break for her," says one restless backbencher
Veteran Tories urge younger MPs to chill out, say opposition is a marathon, not a sprint
The shadow cabinet minister overheard calling Jenrick "f****** desperate"
https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1975852897972957558
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalassocnus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desmostylia
I see that Yaxley-Lennon is back in Court (Westminster Magistrates) on 13-14 October. This one seems to relate to a refusal to supply the PIN number to his phone as part of a police investigation:
Mr Yaxley-Lennon is facing a separate trial in October next year over an accusation that he failed to provide the Pin code for his mobile phone when stopped by Kent Police in Folkestone in July 2024.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk2pjlmp8mo
He's already has one hearing scheduled for next year - July 2026 - around his alleged harassment of journalists (same article):
The 42-year-old from Luton, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court charged with two counts of harassment causing fear of violence towards two reporters in August.
There's still the incident from this summer when he laid out a man in a tube station then went on holiday.
And the bizarre invitation to visit Israel by the Israeli Diaspora Minister, which has been thunderously condemned by the UK Jewish Community - and, to his credit, by James Cleverly (and maybe others whom I have not noted).
* Oh wait, almost no one reported both events.
Exclusive from our new podcast The State of It:
Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet is divided over her future and some shadow ministers are so concerned they are considering the 'nuclear' option of resigning to precipitate a leadership contest
Allies of the Tory leader believe that she has bought herself time with a 'policy blitz' at conference, including proposals to leave the ECHR and scrap the Climate Change Act
Others believe that the party is heading for disaster in May’s local elections and are pressing for Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, to lead the party. They are incensed by the delay in making policy announcements in her first year, which they regard as a year wasted
Some are not sure they can wait that long. The Times has been told that some are considering submitting letters of no confidence as soon as November 2 - the date on which, under party rules, Badenoch’s leadership can be challenged
They have discussed the possibility that one or more of them could resign and demand her departure in an attempt to force the issue
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1975857592288059603
Hence it's easy to differentiate between them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg3y4em4v2o
The not supplying the code for his phone looks like a straightforward case. That law, AIUI, was written to be easy to prosecute, although the police do need to have gotten their paperwork right.
I got really interested in marine mammals etc. as an undergrad, and still am. I recently rediscovered my rough notes for my finals papers - I must have been the only student that year discussing the breeding systems of grey and common seals. Didn't do me any visible harm though ...
Moreincommon has Zack on 8%, but Yougov has him on 17%.
A week is a long time in politics, three years is an era. In Scotland its almost a generation, at least by SNP standards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnFsQVoTvQI
Also some notes on Shakespeare in case Boris is looking for help getting his biography out in time for Christmas.
But I digress. My point was going to be... was Europe this fucked up in 1975? When I was 10 and 30 years after WW2
https://www.vox.com/2014/4/24/5640890/otters-rape-baby-seals-monsters-bad
As it happens I understand Obama hasn't given him his wholehearted support.......
But like Obama this guy really has talent and as the PBer who said Mike's 50/1 tip on Obama was a waste of money this is my attempt at rehabillitation.....
Sadly, the government (and the EU) are trying to drive Signal out.
For those who want to defend that - Signal is the choice for journalists, aid agencies and the like. Because it protects privacy.
Her new "golden rule" is that for every pound saved, half or more will be allocated to reducing government debt. From the standpoint of fiscal sanity this improves on Rishi Sunak's pledge that every pound of reduced spending would be spent on tax cuts
Overhunting them changes the marine ecosystem in question (sea otters eat sea urchins which would otherwise eat the kelp forests). A fascinating example of a keystone species - kill it and the ecosystem collapses.
There's very little opposition to him if any within the Party.
Is it fair to say a Michael Howard to lay the foundations of a hoped-for recovery?
Can’t imagine he could ever do the same with Starmer.
I tried to get my knitting group to switch apps, but most people didn't want to install an extra app. Network effects mean that I have to use whatsapp because it's where everyone else is.
It's a very particular phrase with a very specific meaning (and doesn't actually occur in the US constitution).
Stephen Miller said the quiet part out loud. Trump has “plenary authority,” then suddenly went silent. The plan wasn’t to be made public. Clearly someone hit the panic button in his earpiece.
It gets weirder: CNN uploaded the interview with the “plenary authority” comment edited out..
https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1975784671054283070
The arrest at Luton was on suspicion of GBH, so the injuries must have been quite serious to the "alleged victim".
Can't imagine why someone wouldn't give a statement against Y-L...
Notably, the US has stayed silent on this. Zuckerberg wants Signal dead as a competitor to WhatsApp.
He was a legal permanent resident before his arrest & wrongful conviction—living in U.S. since 9 months old.
Subu Vedam is the longest serving exonerated prisoner in history of Pennsylvania.
His attorney argues that the immigration removal order should also be vacated—as it only exists because of his original overturned murder conviction.
He is currently detained at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center near Philipsburg.
https://x.com/LongTimeHistory/status/1975695094528217465
Kemi's model for the UK, apparently.
Two big Bills coming soon with be the Renters' Rights Bill designed to improve the life of renters (i.e. not pensioners) and the Employment Rights Act designed to improve the life of workers (i.e. not pensioners). The more fuss and noise being made, the more likely these will slip quietly onto the statute books. SKS likely can't believe his luck.
The hackers have 1.5TB of photos, 2.2m photos, related to age verification, and are using it for extorting Discord.
That’ll be 2.2m photos of passports, driving licences, national ID cards…
https://x.com/vxunderground/status/1975834621503062495
Sometimes the winter goes the other way, with a mild start and then cold later, due to a sudden stratospheric warning. Oftentimes meteorologists will split winter into two separate seasons, early and late, for that reason.
Because the government is following the path already trodden in Spain and France. Ever more employment rights for “the workers”. But, in order for things not to freeze up, ever more people employed on very casual basis.