In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
Good thread giving Simon Jenkins a well deserved Fisking.
In today's Times, Simon Jenkins launches an attack on the plans for a new town at Tempsford. Even by his own lofty standards, it is excruciatingly error-filled... https://x.com/Tennesseine/status/1972099590083182877
Wrong link there.
I recall Simon Jenkins, many years ago, boasting of having prevented closing lines for maintenance, while one the board of London Transport - meaning that maintenance only happened in the brief period between the last train and the first trains. By the time that you have verified everything is shut down, that is a couple of hours.
The man is a moron.
And yet... He gets all the baubles and Great and Good roles. Not quite New 10K, because he hasn't done anything to fail at. But his opinions are everywhere.
Andrew Gilligan is another.
Why?
At least Andrew Gilligan backed things like cycling infrastructure and using the Thames for transport. The Thames was being held up by the belief of the PLA that it was needed to keep it empty for the non-existent trade that vanished in the 1960s.
IIRC it was Gilligan who noted that the hold up to quicker river boats on the lower Thames was wash effects on a small number of house boats. And that it was quite cheap and simple to install some protective pilings for them.
Jenkins is just a Turbo NIMBY.
I don't think that is quite fair about either of those two, though I'd say that they are a pair of Curate's Eggs. I give much credit to Gilligan for getting serious commitment to walking/wheeling and cycling in London going. I can imagine Jenkins taking different stances at different times on that:
Jenkins imo tries to be a latter-day Betjeman, and perhaps would like to be a Lord Fawsley - though I can't imagine him swimming naked with students in a medieval college swimming pool at midnight.
Ive had to turn the Dalek off. Libraries for primary schools and something something wicked Toreeeeeez.
Well you Tories were wicked since at least 2016, and you got even worse between 2019 and 2022.
Has the longest suicide note in history finished yet?
Labour have made the Tories look like rank amateurs in the wickedness department. They will not be missed
They really haven't.
This can be seen by the polls which even after a year of undiluted disappointment show a hated Labour Party (who although at an unprecedented low) still a handful of points ahead of your lot.
Now if you throw Ref and Con together (can we tell the difference anyway?) you are a whopping 25 points ahead.
Labours lead over the Tories won't last that much longer.
You might be right or you might be wishcasting. You do a lot of wishcasting. On the other hand if the Tories attack Reform they might find themselves in the mid -twenties. Go for it!
Oh the Tories should certainly be attacking Reform. Getting rid of Labour ASAP, stopping Farage being PM and reclaiming Conservatism and reducing any influence Davey or the LDs might have should be the three overarching principles for the Tories in terms of the next GE They'll probably veer off on a Jenrick treasure hunt instead though
Jenrick would certainly get you a bounce into the early twenties.
If you have a word with Mr Musk and Mr Trump they might be able to scramble a coup to get rid of this Government, although I am not sure you will like what comes next.
My train has been held and then cancelled at Kettering.
I haven’t been this scared since I visited the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2004.
The PB Tory lunch has been postponed until Friday all because some loser decided to get hit by a train near Luton.
"All trains will terminate at Reform Central".
You may be pleased to know Sky had Zia Yusuf on responding to Starmer's enemy accusation and highlighted Nathan Gill to which Yousef just batted it away as nothing to do with Reform
As I said previously, Starmer by publically attacking Reform, has given the stage to Farage, Tice or Yusef to come on the media to reject all and every criticism, which they are far better at than Starmer, and keep them on the daily media merry go round throughout his conference
Always good to read your balanced reporting on what's going on at Starmer HQ and to read the hilarious foot-in-mouth mistakes he keeps on making! I sometimes wonder how he managed to get a job at all let alone as Prime Minister!
He is OK as a lawyer but not PM though to be fair the public's verdict as the worst (even worse than Truss) must be a real concern for labour supporters
TSE contextualised this assertion after you made it yesterday.
You are being a little bit naughty these days BigG.
I hope you are not challenging an Ipsos poll, because it is a poll you do not like
In that poll
Starmer - 66%
Truss - 51%
I wasn't.
But if you want me banned by suggesting I am dismissing a BPC pollster, flag away, but on that score TSE might have to ban himself for "contextualising" the poll too.
I have never flagged anyone nor will I
The poll findings were by Ipsos and are the headline news to the public
I remember seeing a study that put congenital abnormality risk from consanguinity at about equal to ten years of maternal age - so a 21 year old pregnant by her cousin would present a similar risk to a 31 year old pregnant by someone unrelated.
So, it can be over-stated. On the other hand, many things that would be equivalent to the risk of being ten years older would be considered quite large.
Many things, nowadays, could be genetically screen for before cousin marriage - the risk, afterall, although presented as probabilistic is largely deterministic. There won't be genetic risk if neither cousin is a carrier (if both are carriers then it does of course reduce to probability and the odds are not good!).
I'd be more concerned about the possible coercion aspects of cousin marriage. The probability of marrying one's cousin seems like it should be quite low, given all choice available if that choice is truly free.
In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
Should I use a local estate agent that charges 1% plus VAT, but has a client book of ready buyers without marketing, or pay flat rate £6k cheaper to an out of towner who’ll put it on RightMove?
My daughter and her ex have just sold their home and the whole process was shocking with inept and slow lawyers providing error prone advice to estate agents who were utterly clueless and thought all they had to do was to list on rightmove and the rest would happen
Ultimately they chose the local long established agent who proved to be the best choice especially as they ere dealing with various agents in buying their new properties
It does seem that anyone who has been entirely trained as an online agent is not worth the money and 1% plus VAT to a good established local agent is the best choice in a far from impressive field of properry agents, conveyancers and lawyers
The whole process needs streamlining but last time that was attempted it was Yvette Cooper's pet project (HIPs) and was an utter failure as she hadn't a clue about the subject, but then to this day she is very much the same.
Pay peanuts get monkeys who are working on 100 cases at a time.
Parents' property is in sales process at the moment, I'm praying it goes through as the market is crap and we were lucky to find a buyer closeish to the marketed price.
One thing I've noticed (not having sold a property for decades) is the inefficiency of solicitors. Sale will take four months I think when it could have been done in one month easy if they responded to things in a timely fashion. You'd think they'd want their money faster.
I used to be a mortgage broker many years ago and conveyancing solicitors back then were not this bad I'm sure.
Because now it’s a volume business. A lot of it isn’t even done by solicitors, it will be done by paralegals or equivalents, each handling hundreds of files at once.
If you want a proper service you have to pay the £150+ an hour solicitors charge rather than the £400 fixed fee for volume conveyancing.
My daughter's solicitors for her divorce and separately selling her house were £250 + VAT per hour
£250 per hour, is what I would generally charge.
You should take up plumbing to get you off these subsistence wages.
Good thread giving Simon Jenkins a well deserved Fisking.
In today's Times, Simon Jenkins launches an attack on the plans for a new town at Tempsford. Even by his own lofty standards, it is excruciatingly error-filled... https://x.com/Tennesseine/status/1972099590083182877
Wrong link there.
I recall Simon Jenkins, many years ago, boasting of having prevented closing lines for maintenance, while one the board of London Transport - meaning that maintenance only happened in the brief period between the last train and the first trains. By the time that you have verified everything is shut down, that is a couple of hours.
The man is a moron.
And yet... He gets all the baubles and Great and Good roles. Not quite New 10K, because he hasn't done anything to fail at. But his opinions are everywhere.
Andrew Gilligan is another.
Why?
At least Andrew Gilligan backed things like cycling infrastructure and using the Thames for transport. The Thames was being held up by the belief of the PLA that it was needed to keep it empty for the non-existent trade that vanished in the 1960s.
IIRC it was Gilligan who noted that the hold up to quicker river boats on the lower Thames was wash effects on a small number of house boats. And that it was quite cheap and simple to install some protective pilings for them.
Jenkins is just a Turbo NIMBY.
I don't think that is quite fair about either of those two, though I'd say that they are a pair of Curate's Eggs. I give much credit to Gilligan for getting serious commitment to walking/wheeling and cycling in London going. I can imagine Jenkins taking different stances at different times on that:
Jenkins imo tries to be a latter-day Betjeman, and perhaps would like to be a Lord Fawsley - though I can't imagine him swimming naked with students in a medieval college swimming pool at midnight.
In which he rails against cycling infrastructure. Again, there is nothing that Jenkins doesn't oppose.
Gilligan campaigned for improved cycling infrastructure and for the river to be used for transport.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
They certainly are if all they can offer is "good competent government". That butters no parsnips in this new age of populism.
Ive had to turn the Dalek off. Libraries for primary schools and something something wicked Toreeeeeez.
Well you Tories were wicked since at least 2016, and you got even worse between 2019 and 2022.
Has the longest suicide note in history finished yet?
Labour have made the Tories look like rank amateurs in the wickedness department. They will not be missed
They really haven't.
This can be seen by the polls which even after a year of undiluted disappointment show a hated Labour Party (who although at an unprecedented low) still a handful of points ahead of your lot.
Now if you throw Ref and Con together (can we tell the difference anyway?) you are a whopping 25 points ahead.
Labours lead over the Tories won't last that much longer.
You might be right or you might be wishcasting. You do a lot of wishcasting. On the other hand if the Tories attack Reform they might find themselves in the mid -twenties. Go for it!
Oh the Tories should certainly be attacking Reform. Getting rid of Labour ASAP, stopping Farage being PM and reclaiming Conservatism and reducing any influence Davey or the LDs might have should be the three overarching principles for the Tories in terms of the next GE They'll probably veer off on a Jenrick treasure hunt instead though
Jenrick would certainly get you a bounce into the early twenties.
If you have a word with Mr Musk and Mr Trump they might be able to scramble a coup to get rid of this Government, although I am not sure you will like what comes next.
I remember seeing a study that put congenital abnormality risk from consanguinity at about equal to ten years of maternal age - so a 21 year old pregnant by her cousin would present a similar risk to a 31 year old pregnant by someone unrelated.
So, it can be over-stated. On the other hand, many things that would be equivalent to the risk of being ten years older would be considered quite large.
Many things, nowadays, could be genetically screen for before cousin marriage - the risk, afterall, although presented as probabilistic is largely deterministic. There won't be genetic risk if neither cousin is a carrier (if both are carriers then it does of course reduce to probability and the odds are not good!).
I'd be more concerned about the possible coercion aspects of cousin marriage. The probability of marrying one's cousin seems like it should be quite low, given all choice available if that choice is truly free.
It's basically vanished where it isn't a method of consolidating family wealth - the old classic is land.
The media have really got this thing that Reeves will raise VAT in the budget. I have no clue where this idea has come from? Has some Labour friendly think tank purposed it? I just don't see it given as the left see it as regressive.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
They certainly are if all they can offer is "good competent government". That butters no parsnips in this new age of populism.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
A brutal review of Harris’ campaign by Nesrine Malik in a review of Harris’ book around the campaign showing what an unsuitable candidate she was to take on Trump and the flaws in the Democratic Party.
Harris may have been a flawed candidate but set against Trump I don’t give those who voted for Trump a pass . This abdicates the responsibility they hold for ignoring 8 years of disgusting behaviour and corruption from Trump and giving the stain on humanity another term .
Good thread giving Simon Jenkins a well deserved Fisking.
In today's Times, Simon Jenkins launches an attack on the plans for a new town at Tempsford. Even by his own lofty standards, it is excruciatingly error-filled... https://x.com/Tennesseine/status/1972099590083182877
Wrong link there.
I recall Simon Jenkins, many years ago, boasting of having prevented closing lines for maintenance, while one the board of London Transport - meaning that maintenance only happened in the brief period between the last train and the first trains. By the time that you have verified everything is shut down, that is a couple of hours.
The man is a moron.
And yet... He gets all the baubles and Great and Good roles. Not quite New 10K, because he hasn't done anything to fail at. But his opinions are everywhere.
Andrew Gilligan is another.
Why?
At least Andrew Gilligan backed things like cycling infrastructure and using the Thames for transport. The Thames was being held up by the belief of the PLA that it was needed to keep it empty for the non-existent trade that vanished in the 1960s.
IIRC it was Gilligan who noted that the hold up to quicker river boats on the lower Thames was wash effects on a small number of house boats. And that it was quite cheap and simple to install some protective pilings for them.
Jenkins is just a Turbo NIMBY.
I don't think that is quite fair about either of those two, though I'd say that they are a pair of Curate's Eggs. I give much credit to Gilligan for getting serious commitment to walking/wheeling and cycling in London going. I can imagine Jenkins taking different stances at different times on that:
Jenkins imo tries to be a latter-day Betjeman, and perhaps would like to be a Lord Fawsley - though I can't imagine him swimming naked with students in a medieval college swimming pool at midnight.
Amazing reading this stuff from 10+ years ago and comparing it to what London is like now. He somehow applauds the incredible value-for-money that cycling infrastructure delivers while complaining about the £48 million cost of the superhighways - the Embankment is getting up to 18,000 cyclists a day.
The media have really got this thing that Reeves will raise VAT in the budget. I have no clue where this idea has come from? Has some Labour friendly think tank purposed it? I just don't see it given as the left see it as regressive.
You could raise VAT is there was a purpose to it such as defence (or invading a neighbouring country like France).
I wonder if the media will do a full-on 'How close does this get to Nigel? What did Nigel know and when?' thing, in the same way they did with Sir Keir and Mandelson?
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The Tories started the austerity narrative in opposition and it potentially cost them a majority in 2010. "No money left" also helped.
Labour ran their election with the vacuous slogan of "Change", which got them a big majority but didn't lay the groundwork. So when they came in and started off with the winter fuel cut, the electorate weren't prepared.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
I think a large part of this is down to the messaging/mandate.
The Tories went into that GE and campaigned on balancing the books, so when the Osborne budget hit, they had some political cover. They won a mandate for tough decisions. Labour didn’t really, they just let everyone believe that things were going to get better once they were in power.
Osborne got his big austerity budget out of the way in 2010 too, whereas Reeves’ first budget was a big misfire which is now having to be addressed in budget 2.
It’s not just Labour though. Some of this is also to do with how fed up the public are.
In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
Good thread giving Simon Jenkins a well deserved Fisking.
In today's Times, Simon Jenkins launches an attack on the plans for a new town at Tempsford. Even by his own lofty standards, it is excruciatingly error-filled... https://x.com/Tennesseine/status/1972099590083182877
I've just skimmed the article, and it appears to be: "Let London be the king! Why build anywhere else?"
A big problem with that thinking is that many people don't actually want to live in London. I know it's heresy to say that, but it happens to be true.
In this weeks episode of judges make crazy immigration decision....
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
A brutal review of Harris’ campaign by Nesrine Malik in a review of Harris’ book around the campaign showing what an unsuitable candidate she was to take on Trump and the flaws in the Democratic Party.
Harris may have been a flawed candidate but set against Trump I don’t give those who voted for Trump a pass . This abdicates the responsibility they hold for ignoring 8 years of disgusting behaviour and corruption from Trump and giving the stain on humanity another term .
Harris was an averagely competent candidate thrown a hospital pass. But she's not helping her case at all with this book.
This thread gives an idea of the level of dissatisfaction among Democrats for their current leaders, which goes a long way to explaining Newsom's surge in popularity.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
They certainly are if all they can offer is "good competent government". That butters no parsnips in this new age of populism.
Still, wouldn't it be fun to try it?
People would just say it was boring and moan about "lack of overarching narrative".
No, it's not the way. I really hope Labour aren't going down that route. I fear they might be though.
I wonder if the media will do a full-on 'How close does this get to Nigel? What did Nigel know and when?' thing, in the same way they did with Sir Keir and Mandelson?
I suspect you can whistle for that. Zia Yusuf denied he had ever heard of Nathan Gill.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
They certainly are if all they can offer is "good competent government". That butters no parsnips in this new age of populism.
Still, wouldn't it be fun to try it?
People would just say it was boring and moan about "lack of overarching narrative".
No, it's not the way. I really hope Labour aren't going down that route. I fear they might be though.
Gordon Brown is just getting on with the job ^^^^^ SKS is here
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
So (a) - all governments do this and to an extent its fair to blame what's come before. But yes, after a while, you have to take control. Especially so when you are claiming success for things that have happened due to what your predecessors did (this is happening a bit now) (b) No government admits mistakes. They just don't. (c) This is the biggie. I think people assumed that the government in waiting, who were on course for two years with huge, unchanging poll leads, had a plan. It seems that they did not. They need to get one, and explain what it is, why they think it will work and stick to it. I've mentioned that I am slowly working through 'Who Dares Wins' about the period 1979 to 1982 by Dominic Sandbrook. There are strong parallels with now - a terrible economic legacy, a country widely portrayed as in decline, a new government etc. Yet Thatcher at least had a plan, a guiding principle, that she stuck too (even when it looked like it was heading for disaster and causing huge amounts of suffering). Thatcher believed it would be worth it in the end, to squeeze inflation out of the system and get the country growing again. We can argue about how it was done, but certainly after the pain, the country did boom.
I see nothing from Labour that they have any plan. That. Needs. To. Change.
(d) Frankly grown up politicians will explain why taxes need to go, why cuts need to be made and will do it.
(e) I am unconvinced that this is the big problem its made out to be. There are things that can be done - no-one should be entitled to benefits if they turn down work, motability cars ought to be practical, not glamorous etc. But are that many people REALLY living off welfare?
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The problem is that Labour said lots of things. Then did stuff like WFA and promptly reversed it.
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament 2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money) 3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax. 4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money. 5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
If Starmer does go next year (33% chance imo) my tip to replace him is Streeting.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
So (a) - all governments do this and to an extent its fair to blame what's come before. But yes, after a while, you have to take control. Especially so when you are claiming success for things that have happened due to what your predecessors did (this is happening a bit now) (b) No government admits mistakes. They just don't. (c) This is the biggie. I think people assumed that the government in waiting, who were on course for two years with huge, unchanging poll leads, had a plan. It seems that they did not. They need to get one, and explain what it is, why they think it will work and stick to it. I've mentioned that I am slowly working through 'Who Dares Wins' about the period 1979 to 1982 by Dominic Sandbrook. There are strong parallels with now - a terrible economic legacy, a country widely portrayed as in decline, a new government etc. Yet Thatcher at least had a plan, a guiding principle, that she stuck too (even when it looked like it was heading for disaster and causing huge amounts of suffering). Thatcher believed it would be worth it in the end, to squeeze inflation out of the system and get the country growing again. We can argue about how it was done, but certainly after the pain, the country did boom.
I see nothing from Labour that they have any plan. That. Needs. To. Change.
(d) Frankly grown up politicians will explain why taxes need to go, why cuts need to be made and will do it.
(e) I am unconvinced that this is the big problem its made out to be. There are things that can be done - no-one should be entitled to benefits if they turn down work, motability cars ought to be practical, not glamorous etc. But are that many people REALLY living off welfare?
Good points.
Labour have wasted a year in thrall to their least useful election pledge, scrabbling around the policy drawer to try and keep it. Better to have had a plan, and dealt with the fiscal consequences without the straitjacket.
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The problem is that Labour said lots of things. Then did stuff like WFA and promptly reversed it.
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament 2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money) 3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax. 4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money. 5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
Yes, the curious thing about Labour’s first budget was just how unimaginative and unambitious it was, compared to historical standards.
Budget #1 is the time to throw everything at the wall, it’s the statement of intent budget.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
If Starmer does go next year (33% chance imo) my tip to replace him is Streeting.
Not a bad shout, since if he lost his seat at the next election, his rivals get another shot at the crown. (And to hold it would likely require pulling off a miracle and winning another term.)
Might encourage a few to play the long game and back him.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
If Starmer does go next year (33% chance imo) my tip to replace him is Streeting.
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The problem is that Labour said lots of things. Then did stuff like WFA and promptly reversed it.
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament 2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money) 3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax. 4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money. 5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
Yes, the curious thing about Labour’s first budget was just how unimaginative and unambitious it was, compared to historical standards.
Budget #1 is the time to throw everything at the wall, it’s the statement of intent budget.
I think my suggestion would have been more popular with the Labour MPs, party members and the left generally - what say those here?
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The problem is that Labour said lots of things. Then did stuff like WFA and promptly reversed it.
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament 2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money) 3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax. 4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money. 5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
Haven't seen this before but is the suggestion vicarious liability? That would really put the thumbscrews on Deliveroo and the like.
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The problem is that Labour said lots of things. Then did stuff like WFA and promptly reversed it.
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament 2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money) 3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax. 4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money. 5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
Yes, the curious thing about Labour’s first budget was just how unimaginative and unambitious it was, compared to historical standards.
Budget #1 is the time to throw everything at the wall, it’s the statement of intent budget.
I think my suggestion would have been more popular with the Labour MPs, party members and the left generally - what say those here?
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
If Starmer does go next year (33% chance imo) my tip to replace him is Streeting.
Not a bad shout, since if he lost his seat at the next election, his rivals get another shot at the crown. (And to hold it would likely require pulling off a miracle and winning another term.)
Might encourage a few to play the long game and back him.
He could do, what I think they call, a Ric Holden.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
If Starmer does go next year (33% chance imo) my tip to replace him is Streeting.
Not a bad call.
Not for a Tory or Reform supporter. Streeting is a terrible call.
The public already know that Labour is finished but it appears that the Westminster bubble is not upto date with the news. They talk in earnest terms about the budget but the reality is it will make almost no difference. Andy Burnham was spot on this morning. Labour has about 7000 elected councillors, mayors, MPs MSPs etc. This year their win rate dropped from 43% to 6%. In 2026 maybe 1500 of them will be up for election. The win rate needs to improve or Starmer is dead. Throwing more money at the electorate will only crash the economy faster so only option is good competent government. Labour is finished.
I think Labour have to the end of this year to perform competently. Elements of this would be:
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
End of the year is problematic though. After the conferences everything is Budget. If that flops (which seems likely given public finances) they are out of time to reset yet again before Christmas and then New Year and the May campaign begins.
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
IMHO they have one chance only to reset the narrative and that is if/when Starmer goes.
I agree about having a clear plan.
If SKS goes then swathes of cabinet probably needs to go too for a proper reset. For it to work it has to be a Johnson to Sunak type change not a Johnson to Truss (which destroyed any chance Sunak had to reset properly) Continuity Calamity won't wash. Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
If Starmer does go next year (33% chance imo) my tip to replace him is Streeting.
Not a bad call.
Not for a Tory or Reform supporter. Streeting is a terrible call.
Im not referring to how he will do in the job but as a call for the likely winner of such a contest. Streeting isn't a bad call for who might replace Starmer if he quit soon
I see nothing from Labour that they have any plan. That. Needs. To. Change.
It would be nice if Labour had a plan for government. And if it wasn't completely hopeless.
Sometimes a government can hit upon a good plan by virtue of necessity. That is still possible. This Labour government will remain politically incapable of advocating for a plan in order to build public support for it, however. It matters little if you have a good plan if you cannot bring the public with you.
The most able politician in British politics is currently Nigel Farage, but unfortunately he is using his talents for malign ends, increasing division and with an unspeakable faith in the ability of the state to borrow nearly infinite sums of money to finance his fantasy tax cuts and spending pledges.
The Russians, of course, are looking on and hoping they can hang on until the end of the decade. Le Pen in the Elysée, Farage in Number Ten, suddenly Russian Imperial ambitions look more credible.
I find it interesting how hard Labour went on Tory failure / Tory blackhole, its their fault we have to raise taxes etc etc etc (and the claim is not without merit), but unlike when Cameron / Osborne crafted this narrative and it gave them several years of cover and New Labour managed to run with that for two terms of excuses for bad stuff, this time around it doesn't seem to have given Labour any cover at all. All the shit seems to be squarely pinned on Starmer and co.
The problem is that Labour said lots of things. Then did stuff like WFA and promptly reversed it.
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament 2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money) 3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax. 4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money. 5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
Haven't seen this before but is the suggestion vicarious liability? That would really put the thumbscrews on Deliveroo and the like.
AKA penetrating the liability shield. The idea is that when judged (by a judge) that the structure was set up to create immunity, the directors become personally liable.
So the board of Deliveroo would be risking their houses and pensions.
My train has been held and then cancelled at Kettering.
I haven’t been this scared since I visited the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2004.
The PB Tory lunch has been postponed until Friday all because some loser decided to get hit by a train near Luton.
Perhaps if we had a humane assisted dying policy that allowed people to end their lives painlessly and with dignity people might not need to resort to throwing themselves under trains or off bridges
So every fecking train in fecking london is fecking cancelled
And I have a flight to Naples in 2 hours
Two hours before the flight you should already be airside, enjoying some refreshment and reading an improving book or people watching.
Building contingency into travel plans is well worth it.
Leon is an adrenaline junkie, and one of his chosen methods of stimulating a surge of adrenaline is to have a mad scramble to reach the airport on time.
It is less likely to see him end up in A&E, so it does have that to recommend it.
My train has been held and then cancelled at Kettering.
I haven’t been this scared since I visited the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2004.
The PB Tory lunch has been postponed until Friday all because some loser decided to get hit by a train near Luton.
Perhaps if we had a humane assisted dying policy that allowed people to end their lives painlessly and with dignity people might not need to resort to throwing themselves under trains or off bridges
The people committing suicide in front of trains are those with mental health issues (98% IIRC) - which assisted dying is nothing to do with.
It seems that people with long term illnesses chose other methods.
My train has been held and then cancelled at Kettering.
I haven’t been this scared since I visited the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2004.
The PB Tory lunch has been postponed until Friday all because some loser decided to get hit by a train near Luton.
Perhaps if we had a humane assisted dying policy that allowed people to end their lives painlessly and with dignity people might not need to resort to throwing themselves under trains or off bridges
No one with just depression would be able to off themselves with the proposed law.
TWO people jumped in front of trains. Gatwick and Luton
Wankers. They should put the smashed corpses back together using amazing new technology that astonishingly saves lives - even when bodies are near vaporised - then throw them in front of another train
A second person was hit by a train near Gatwick Airport, as well as between Luton and St. Alban's. Dreadful for everyone involved.
They say that Gatwick Express is still running from Victoria, though, but they've evacuated Gatwick Airport (train station, presumably) due to overcrowding.
And you thought President Trump's ICE goons were playing hardball.
{From the future}
Due to complications with legal procedure, the only people prosecuted by the hit squad were a group of little old ladies from Kettering who knitted gloves for Tesco workers during COVID.
Chief Constable Sir Ronald Savage explained - "While it is unfortunate that they are being prosecuted, they only delivered 119 pairs of gloves, instead of the 120 that were promised. And while they were give for nothing, under the legislation, we had not option but to arrest them. The fact that 126 armed officers attended was down to safety procedures."
TWO people jumped in front of trains. Gatwick and Luton
Wankers. They should put the smashed corpses back together using amazing new technology that astonishingly saves lives - even when bodies are near vaporised - then throw them in front of another train
My train has been held and then cancelled at Kettering.
I haven’t been this scared since I visited the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2004.
The PB Tory lunch has been postponed until Friday all because some loser decided to get hit by a train near Luton.
Perhaps if we had a humane assisted dying policy that allowed people to end their lives painlessly and with dignity people might not need to resort to throwing themselves under trains or off bridges
No one with just depression would be able to off themselves with the proposed law.
Agreed but they should be able to, with appropriate safeguards
TWO people jumped in front of trains. Gatwick and Luton
Wankers. They should put the smashed corpses back together using amazing new technology that astonishingly saves lives - even when bodies are near vaporised - then throw them in front of another train
That would make you even later for your plane
Plane delayed. Lol. I might still just make it
Jeeeeez
I’m sweating so hard I’m having to mop my face with my spare underpants
A second person was hit by a train near Gatwick Airport, as well as between Luton and St. Alban's. Dreadful for everyone involved.
They say that Gatwick Express is still running from Victoria, though, but they've evacuated Gatwick Airport (train station, presumably) due to overcrowding.
TWO people jumped in front of trains. Gatwick and Luton
Wankers. They should put the smashed corpses back together using amazing new technology that astonishingly saves lives - even when bodies are near vaporised - then throw them in front of another train
That would make you even later for your plane
Plane delayed. Lol. I might still just make it
Jeeeeez
I’m sweating so hard I’m having to mop my face with my spare underpants
Just thought I’d gift you that lovely image
I once got fecked by the Gatwick express. Then realised the easyryan flight was more than an hour delayed too. Except the airline then charged everyone on the Gatwick express a fee equivalent to the ticket price for arriving after checkin officially closed
And you thought President Trump's ICE goons were playing hardball.
Look, a squirrel.
A very, very expensive (billions in taxpayers's hard earned) squirrel. That'll take care of the Johnsonian Tories for a generation, but what of Reform?
TWO people jumped in front of trains. Gatwick and Luton
Wankers. They should put the smashed corpses back together using amazing new technology that astonishingly saves lives - even when bodies are near vaporised - then throw them in front of another train
That would make you even later for your plane
Plane delayed. Lol. I might still just make it
Jeeeeez
I’m sweating so hard I’m having to mop my face with my spare underpants
A second person was hit by a train near Gatwick Airport, as well as between Luton and St. Alban's. Dreadful for everyone involved.
They say that Gatwick Express is still running from Victoria, though, but they've evacuated Gatwick Airport (train station, presumably) due to overcrowding.
Should I use a local estate agent that charges 1% plus VAT, but has a client book of ready buyers without marketing, or pay flat rate £6k cheaper to an out of towner who’ll put it on RightMove?
My daughter and her ex have just sold their home and the whole process was shocking with inept and slow lawyers providing error prone advice to estate agents who were utterly clueless and thought all they had to do was to list on rightmove and the rest would happen
Ultimately they chose the local long established agent who proved to be the best choice especially as they ere dealing with various agents in buying their new properties
It does seem that anyone who has been entirely trained as an online agent is not worth the money and 1% plus VAT to a good established local agent is the best choice in a far from impressive field of properry agents, conveyancers and lawyers
The whole process needs streamlining but last time that was attempted it was Yvette Cooper's pet project (HIPs) and was an utter failure as she hadn't a clue about the subject, but then to this day she is very much the same.
Pay peanuts get monkeys who are working on 100 cases at a time.
Parents' property is in sales process at the moment, I'm praying it goes through as the market is crap and we were lucky to find a buyer closeish to the marketed price.
One thing I've noticed (not having sold a property for decades) is the inefficiency of solicitors. Sale will take four months I think when it could have been done in one month easy if they responded to things in a timely fashion. You'd think they'd want their money faster.
I used to be a mortgage broker many years ago and conveyancing solicitors back then were not this bad I'm sure.
Because now it’s a volume business. A lot of it isn’t even done by solicitors, it will be done by paralegals or equivalents, each handling hundreds of files at once.
If you want a proper service you have to pay the £150+ an hour solicitors charge rather than the £400 fixed fee for volume conveyancing.
I'm paying £1,300 plus vat!
That sounds more reasonable (in terms of a reflection of the work) but I bet, although I don’t know as no firm I have worked at has done conveyancing, that the people working on the files have an insane case load. Burnout is strong in that sector.
You are correct about conveyancers - wyers insane case loads and burn out
In my daughters sale process I obtained quotes from local practices which ranged from outrageously high (really didn't want the business) to sorry we are not accepting any more business, to our senior conveyanver has walked out due to pressure, to firms actively advertisng on their web site for qualified conveyancers
The industry is in a mess
I started as a conveyancer 40 odd years ago. As a trainee I was settling 4-5 transactions a week. These generated fees equivalent to my annual salary. The money extorted by misselling endowment polices was just a bonus. It was a spectacularly profitable business. Partners in their 30s were having swimming pools built on their houses, they simply did not know what to do with the money.
In those days paralegals were quite rare beasts. Face to face contact with the client was the norm and frequent. It was wildly different. A good friend of mine recently downsized. He met his solicitor once, to sign the disposition. It was incredibly offhand and various queries were basically ignored or given AI style answers that missed the point. On the plus side the fees were not that different to what we were charging for similar properties 40 odd years ago. You get what you pay for, I suppose.
A second person was hit by a train near Gatwick Airport, as well as between Luton and St. Alban's. Dreadful for everyone involved.
They say that Gatwick Express is still running from Victoria, though, but they've evacuated Gatwick Airport (train station, presumably) due to overcrowding.
lol. Trump has just imposed 100% tariffs on all movies made outside America
He literally can't do this, movies are a specific named area that is reserved by Congress and isn't covered by his abuse of national security laws that give him executive power over tariffs.
MAGA tried this earlier in the year and had to back down in full and they will have to do so again because that law hasn't changed or been repealed.
But more than that Hollywood depends on RoW for about 70% of all box office receipts, in a tit for tat tariff escalation which is what this results in the US is who loses the most as international box office dries up and Netflix becomes more expensive across the world causing people to shun US made movies.
lol. Trump has just imposed 100% tariffs on all movies made outside America
He literally can't do this, movies are a specific named area that is reserved by Congress and isn't covered by his abuse of national security laws that give him executive power over tariffs.
MAGA tried this earlier in the year and had to back down in full and they will have to do so again because that law hasn't changed or been repealed.
But more than that Hollywood depends on RoW for about 70% of all box office receipts, in a tit for tat tariff escalation which is what this results in the US is who loses the most as international box office dries up and Netflix becomes more expensive across the world causing people to shun US made movies.
S Korean Netflix producers hastily developing Prawn Game.
My train has been held and then cancelled at Kettering.
I haven’t been this scared since I visited the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2004.
The PB Tory lunch has been postponed until Friday all because some loser decided to get hit by a train near Luton.
Perhaps if we had a humane assisted dying policy that allowed people to end their lives painlessly and with dignity people might not need to resort to throwing themselves under trains or off bridges
People who suicide by such drastic means are (by definition) in no fit state to do so in a calmer and more considered manner.
lol. Trump has just imposed 100% tariffs on all movies made outside America
He literally can't do this, movies are a specific named area that is reserved by Congress and isn't covered by his abuse of national security laws that give him executive power over tariffs.
MAGA tried this earlier in the year and had to back down in full and they will have to do so again because that law hasn't changed or been repealed.
But more than that Hollywood depends on RoW for about 70% of all box office receipts, in a tit for tat tariff escalation which is what this results in the US is who loses the most as international box office dries up and Netflix becomes more expensive across the world causing people to shun US made movies.
S Korean Netflix producers hastily developing Prawn Game.
lol. Trump has just imposed 100% tariffs on all movies made outside America
He literally can't do this, movies are a specific named area that is reserved by Congress and isn't covered by his abuse of national security laws that give him executive power over tariffs.
MAGA tried this earlier in the year and had to back down in full and they will have to do so again because that law hasn't changed or been repealed.
But more than that Hollywood depends on RoW for about 70% of all box office receipts, in a tit for tat tariff escalation which is what this results in the US is who loses the most as international box office dries up and Netflix becomes more expensive across the world causing people to shun US made movies.
S Korean Netflix producers hastily developing Prawn Game.
Comments
A Taliban commander’s nephew granted refugee status in Britain can be joined by seven family members currently living in Turkey, an immigration judge has ruled. None of them speak English, and a tribunal accepted they would place 'a significant burden upon the public purse' if they were allowed to move to the UK. But the relatives - the man's parents, three sisters, a niece and nephew - have 'no options' and are unable to return to Afghanistan, a judgement said.
The nephew, referred to only as 'S' in the ruling, arrived in Britain in 2016. He claimed to be 15 years old but was later age-assessed as 18. His uncle was said to be a Taliban commander who had been pressuring his father to allow 'S' to 'join the jihad'. 'S' was sent to Kabul by his father to get away from his uncle. In 2018 an immigration judge allowed him indefinite leave to remain in the UK after a psychotherapist said he had post-traumatic stress.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15142311/Taliban-commanders-nephew-asylum-SEVEN-family-members.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/simon-jenkins-what-i-ve-learned-from-getting-back-on-my-bike-9735339.html
Jenkins imo tries to be a latter-day Betjeman, and perhaps would like to be a Lord Fawsley - though I can't imagine him swimming naked with students in a medieval college swimming pool at midnight.
If you have a word with Mr Musk and Mr Trump they might be able to scramble a coup to get rid of this Government, although I am not sure you will like what comes next.
The poll findings were by Ipsos and are the headline news to the public
So, it can be over-stated. On the other hand, many things that would be equivalent to the risk of being ten years older would be considered quite large.
Many things, nowadays, could be genetically screen for before cousin marriage - the risk, afterall, although presented as probabilistic is largely deterministic. There won't be genetic risk if neither cousin is a carrier (if both are carriers then it does of course reduce to probability and the odds are not good!).
I'd be more concerned about the possible coercion aspects of cousin marriage. The probability of marrying one's cousin seems like it should be quite low, given all choice available if that choice is truly free.
Gilligan campaigned for improved cycling infrastructure and for the river to be used for transport.
a) Blame transferring should be time limited and specific; from now on what is wrong is the current government's responsibility
b) Clear the decks of their 18 months of mistakes and be honest about it
c) Have a plan, explain the plan and and keep explaining it
d) Stop borrowing for current account expenditure, explain debt and deficit and keep saying it
e) Act to stop people believing that living off welfare is a career option
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/world/europe/gill-russia-britain-bribery.html
The budget is the last hope. Its all on that.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/24/russia-moves-to-raise-vat-by-2-as-budget-deficit-swells-a90609
Labour ran their election with the vacuous slogan of "Change", which got them a big majority but didn't lay the groundwork. So when they came in and started off with the winter fuel cut, the electorate weren't prepared.
I agree about having a clear plan.
The Tories went into that GE and campaigned on balancing the books, so when the Osborne budget hit, they had some political cover. They won a mandate for tough decisions. Labour didn’t really, they just let everyone believe that things were going to get better once they were in power.
Osborne got his big austerity budget out of the way in 2010 too, whereas Reeves’ first budget was a big misfire which is now having to be addressed in budget 2.
It’s not just Labour though. Some of this is also to do with how fed up the public are.
https://tribunalsdecisions.service.gov.uk/utiac/ui-2024-004700-ors
A big problem with that thinking is that many people don't actually want to live in London. I know it's heresy to say that, but it happens to be true.
i think this may be the correct link:
https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1889979882891071745
Continuity Calamity won't wash.
Of course a big change and the clamour for a GE grows to 'legitimise' (especially if Burnham came in, he would have pretty much zero legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate)
But she's not helping her case at all with this book.
This thread gives an idea of the level of dissatisfaction among Democrats for their current leaders, which goes a long way to explaining Newsom's surge in popularity.
Democratic senator tweeting “well THAT just happened” after Trump proclaims the indefinite cancellation of the 2028 election..
https://x.com/alexbronzini/status/1972435911649747280
No, it's not the way. I really hope Labour aren't going down that route. I fear they might be though.
^^^^^
SKS is here
Sarah is a true patriot.
(b) No government admits mistakes. They just don't.
(c) This is the biggie. I think people assumed that the government in waiting, who were on course for two years with huge, unchanging poll leads, had a plan. It seems that they did not. They need to get one, and explain what it is, why they think it will work and stick to it. I've mentioned that I am slowly working through 'Who Dares Wins' about the period 1979 to 1982 by Dominic Sandbrook. There are strong parallels with now - a terrible economic legacy, a country widely portrayed as in decline, a new government etc. Yet Thatcher at least had a plan, a guiding principle, that she stuck too (even when it looked like it was heading for disaster and causing huge amounts of suffering). Thatcher believed it would be worth it in the end, to squeeze inflation out of the system and get the country growing again. We can argue about how it was done, but certainly after the pain, the country did boom.
I see nothing from Labour that they have any plan. That. Needs. To. Change.
(d) Frankly grown up politicians will explain why taxes need to go, why cuts need to be made and will do it.
(e) I am unconvinced that this is the big problem its made out to be. There are things that can be done - no-one should be entitled to benefits if they turn down work, motability cars ought to be practical, not glamorous etc. But are that many people REALLY living off welfare?
Imagine a different Labour Chancellor, first budget
1) Merging employee NI into income tax over the parliament
2) The new income tax rates will be {stuff here}. They will remove various cliffs and oddities, in the process. {soto voce - and raise a bit more money)
3) basic rate of tax for those over retirement age will be held the name (no NI bit). So only pensioners with over £50K a year will pay more tax.
4) All the old age benefits are going in a blender (including WFA) - and will become a means tested/taxed Pension Supplement for the poorest pensioners. So if you have the basic pension and nothing else, you will get more money.
5) Companies are to lose immunity on illegal employment (visa, below minimum wage) via contracting. Heavy penalties.
Labour have wasted a year in thrall to their least useful election pledge, scrabbling around the policy drawer to try and keep it.
Better to have had a plan, and dealt with the fiscal consequences without the straitjacket.
And today...
Rachel Reeves confirms she no longer stands by pledge not to raise taxes
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/29/rachel-reeves-confirms-she-no-longer-stands-by-pledge-not-to-raise-taxes
Budget #1 is the time to throw everything at the wall, it’s the statement of intent budget.
(And to hold it would likely require pulling off a miracle and winning another term.)
Might encourage a few to play the long game and back him.
https://x.com/paulbristow79/status/1972589656333263090?s=19
And I have a flight to Naples in 2 hours
Sometimes a government can hit upon a good plan by virtue of necessity. That is still possible. This Labour government will remain politically incapable of advocating for a plan in order to build public support for it, however. It matters little if you have a good plan if you cannot bring the public with you.
The most able politician in British politics is currently Nigel Farage, but unfortunately he is using his talents for malign ends, increasing division and with an unspeakable faith in the ability of the state to borrow nearly infinite sums of money to finance his fantasy tax cuts and spending pledges.
The Russians, of course, are looking on and hoping they can hang on until the end of the decade. Le Pen in the Elysée, Farage in Number Ten, suddenly Russian Imperial ambitions look more credible.
Building contingency into travel plans is well worth it.
Now I am in a mad scramble to get to Gatwick via fucknowswhere
So the board of Deliveroo would be risking their houses and pensions.
https://tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/
It is less likely to see him end up in A&E, so it does have that to recommend it.
It seems that people with long term illnesses chose other methods.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rachel-reeves-orders-hit-squad-35980266
And you thought President Trump's ICE goons were playing hardball.
Wankers. They should put the smashed corpses back together using amazing new technology that astonishingly saves lives - even when bodies are near vaporised - then throw them in front of another train
Good luck!
Due to complications with legal procedure, the only people prosecuted by the hit squad were a group of little old ladies from Kettering who knitted gloves for Tesco workers during COVID.
Chief Constable Sir Ronald Savage explained - "While it is unfortunate that they are being prosecuted, they only delivered 119 pairs of gloves, instead of the 120 that were promised. And while they were give for nothing, under the legislation, we had not option but to arrest them. The fact that 126 armed officers attended was down to safety procedures."
COVID fraud should have been a day 1 priority.
The UK taxpayer was rinsed for £bns.
Jeeeeez
I’m sweating so hard I’m having to mop my face with my spare underpants
Just thought I’d gift you that lovely image
https://x.com/itvpeston/status/1972647566941827415?s=19
Entitled pricks who turned on the writer that made them. Feck them
In those days paralegals were quite rare beasts. Face to face contact with the client was the norm and frequent. It was wildly different. A good friend of mine recently downsized. He met his solicitor once, to sign the disposition. It was incredibly offhand and various queries were basically ignored or given AI style answers that missed the point. On the plus side the fees were not that different to what we were charging for similar properties 40 odd years ago. You get what you pay for, I suppose.
https://www.southwesternrailway.com/travelling-with-us/at-the-station/london-waterloo
https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1972600904185483427?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
1) how long this line can last, looking at last months borrowing figures
2) what planet she is living on
..and to take credit for the cuts in interest rates? Come on
Otherwise unaffordable.
See also the remake of the 19.5 Steps.
And THRE3 .5
MAGA tried this earlier in the year and had to back down in full and they will have to do so again because that law hasn't changed or been repealed.
But more than that Hollywood depends on RoW for about 70% of all box office receipts, in a tit for tat tariff escalation which is what this results in the US is who loses the most as international box office dries up and Netflix becomes more expensive across the world causing people to shun US made movies.