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The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,711
edited September 30 in General
The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com

Following his defection last week the Danny Kruger effect has led to Ladbrokes putting up a market on which serving Tory MP will next defect to Reform, the screen shot above doesn’t show all the potential contenders, for example you could get 100/1 on Kemi Badenoch being the next Tory MP to defect.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,690
    Morning
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,510
    The terms "rats" and "sinking ship" come to mind.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,521
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maintain this drawing/painting is a million times worse than anything the critics of Charlie Kirk have ever said about him. I thought it was Sam Smith.



    Or PeeWee Herman.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,247
    He will not be the last.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,247
    On topic, I wonder what Natalie Elphicke is thinking now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,690
    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,039
    Echoes of Andrew Mitchell's gag when seconding the Queen's Speech in 1992.

    The motion is nearly always proposed by some genial old codger on the way out and seconded by an oily young man on the make.

    Though I'm not sure that any Conservative MPs choosing to see out their time in Parliament in Reform could be classified as genial.

    As for Labour to Reform defectors, are there any of their MPs who are so socially Conservative as to outweigh all.the other negatives of Farage? Heck of a feather in Nigel's cap if there were.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,486
    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Just a common sense policy for dealing with migrants that are sponging off welfare, I'm sure Reform supporters will agree.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,024
    Stuartinromford said:

    Echoes of Andrew Mitchell's gag when seconding the Queen's Speech in 1992.

    The motion is nearly always proposed by some genial old codger on the way out and seconded by an oily young man on the make.

    Though I'm not sure that any Conservative MPs choosing to see out their time in Parliament in Reform could be classified as genial.

    As for Labour to Reform defectors, are there any of their MPs who are so socially Conservative as to outweigh all.the other negatives of Farage? Heck of a feather in Nigel's cap if there were.

    Graham Stringer was the MP I was thinking about.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,118
    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,546
    Ratters said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Just a common sense policy for dealing with migrants that are sponging off welfare, I'm sure Reform supporters will agree.
    Leon has access to the drugs... ;)
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,061
    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,099
    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    In Parliament aiui that involves the loss of a lot of support systems, which can be difficult.

    Perhaps @NickPalmer can enlighten us?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,546
    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Not the first time this has been reported, e.g. from January.

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2585055/middle-east

    Doesn't mean that there were not two attempts, though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,099
    edited September 22
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    Have they got Rory saying "Britain needs reform" from a few days ago?
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 479
    I am rather more interested in other types of defection - SLAB to SNP, Welsh Lab to Plaid, Wet Tories to the Lib Dems, a revised form of Change UK etc. There are lots of possible permutaions if and when things start to get a bit hairy for both Conservative and Labour backbenchers/careerists. It doesn't have to be just to Reform and Jezbollah.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,195
    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Sounds like a dangerous place, Moscow.

    All those unfortunate window-related accidents, and now this.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,634
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Sounds like a dangerous place, Moscow.

    All those unfortunate window-related accidents, and now this.
    Don't drink tea near a window then.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,390
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Sounds like a dangerous place, Moscow.

    All those unfortunate window-related accidents, and now this.
    Shockingly prostitutes can pee on you with impunity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maintain this drawing/painting is a million times worse than anything the critics of Charlie Kirk have ever said about him. I thought it was Sam Smith.



    For some reason, I am reminded of this



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Battlebus said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Sounds like a dangerous place, Moscow.

    All those unfortunate window-related accidents, and now this.
    Don't drink tea near a window then.
    While eating sushi
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,390
    Fckn hell, ‘reportedly’. Were the reporters the voices in his head?

    https://x.com/nicholaslissack/status/1969364232807252113?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,496
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    Yeah, I don't have an enormous amount of time for Campbell but he knows his craft. Saying Ministers come on the TV and when they finish you don't know what they have said is pretty devastating (and quite accurate).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377
    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    Yes, even though I am no longer a member of the Liberal Democrats, there's no other party I could conceivably support let alone join at this time.

    The old "I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me" applies to me and I suspect most people who leave parties outside Parliamentary and Councillor groups.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377
    Morning all :)

    I would imagine, if there were other defectors to Reform from the Conservatives, Reform will be saving the announcement(s) for the start of the Conservative Party Conference, which I imagine this year will be held in a small village hall near Saffron Walden.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,033
    stodge said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    Yes, even though I am no longer a member of the Liberal Democrats, there's no other party I could conceivably support let alone join at this time.

    The old "I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me" applies to me and I suspect most people who leave parties outside Parliamentary and Councillor groups.
    If you’re an active politician in the bear pit that is the Commons, or even some council chambers, many like the relative security and cover of being part of a reasonably large group, however. Being out on your own can be a lonely existence and takes resilience.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    stodge said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    Yes, even though I am no longer a member of the Liberal Democrats, there's no other party I could conceivably support let alone join at this time.

    The old "I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me" applies to me and I suspect most people who leave parties outside Parliamentary and Councillor groups.
    It is in Manchester, though NW Essex is about the safest Tory seat in Essex now
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,782
    edited September 22
    Morning, PB. I see Elon is now posting prayers on X. Evangelical Christianity, is coming our way.

    Elon Swaggart, or Jimmy Musk.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,024
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    I am rather more interested in other types of defection - SLAB to SNP, Welsh Lab to Plaid, Wet Tories to the Lib Dems, a revised form of Change UK etc. There are lots of possible permutaions if and when things start to get a bit hairy for both Conservative and Labour backbenchers/careerists. It doesn't have to be just to Reform and Jezbollah.

    I want another SNP to Tory defection.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,039
    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    Yeah, I don't have an enormous amount of time for Campbell but he knows his craft. Saying Ministers come on the TV and when they finish you don't know what they have said is pretty devastating (and quite accurate).
    Though, given that anything that politicians say will make them less popular, understandable.

    The Paxman style of political interview was great entertainment, and for a while, illuminating. But it probably didn't help us in the long run. By making the contest between bat and ball so uneven, it put politicians in a corner where learning to say nothing for three minutes was the best tactic.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 479
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    I am rather more interested in other types of defection - SLAB to SNP, Welsh Lab to Plaid, Wet Tories to the Lib Dems, a revised form of Change UK etc. There are lots of possible permutaions if and when things start to get a bit hairy for both Conservative and Labour backbenchers/careerists. It doesn't have to be just to Reform and Jezbollah.

    I want another SNP to Tory defection.
    Yes, that would add the gaiety of nations. And who knows, with the way things are today, maybe not beyond the powers of possibility.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,039
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I would imagine, if there were other defectors to Reform from the Conservatives, Reform will be saving the announcement(s) for the start of the Conservative Party Conference, which I imagine this year will be held in a small village hall near Saffron Walden.

    Unfortunately, said village hall is unavailable , because it's having its roof fixed by the Liberal Democrats. It's all those buggers ever do.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    Yes, even though I am no longer a member of the Liberal Democrats, there's no other party I could conceivably support let alone join at this time.

    The old "I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me" applies to me and I suspect most people who leave parties outside Parliamentary and Councillor groups.
    If you’re an active politician in the bear pit that is the Commons, or even some council chambers, many like the relative security and cover of being part of a reasonably large group, however. Being out on your own can be a lonely existence and takes resilience.
    As we both know, particularly in council groups, it can be far more about personalities than policies or ideologies. We also have the periodic selection/deselection business with those not "chosen" expressing their sentiments on the issue by leaving the group. I think we're seeing a bit of that in London currently.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,024
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    I am rather more interested in other types of defection - SLAB to SNP, Welsh Lab to Plaid, Wet Tories to the Lib Dems, a revised form of Change UK etc. There are lots of possible permutaions if and when things start to get a bit hairy for both Conservative and Labour backbenchers/careerists. It doesn't have to be just to Reform and Jezbollah.

    I want another SNP to Tory defection.
    Yes, that would add the gaiety of nations. And who knows, with the way things are today, maybe not beyond the powers of possibility.
    Sadly the violence threatened to the last defector makes another defection unlikely. Thuggish behaviour seems endemic in the SNP, you have a SNP minister physically attacking innocent Tories like Douglas Ross.

    Lisa Cameron, the SNP MP who defected to the Conservative party on Thursday, said she and her family have been forced to go into hiding in Scotland after she was threatened with being “bricked” in the street.

    Cameron, her husband and their two daughters have moved to a secret location in the Scottish countryside after the MP was emailed threats of violence, including “I hope someone throws a brick at you in the street”, “I hope you burn” and “Think your mental health is bad now – wail til you see what abuse and nastiness yer [sic] going to have to put up with”.

    In her first interview since she quit the SNP to join the Conservatives, the MP told the Times she had received a barrage of abuse and menacing messages.

    She said: “We have had a lot of personal threats. Unfortunately, I think that’s where the political discourse has got to in Scotland: aggression, violence and anger are coupled on to the debate about nationalism.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/13/lisa-cameron-snp-mp-who-defected-to-tories-forced-into-hiding
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    Yes, even though I am no longer a member of the Liberal Democrats, there's no other party I could conceivably support let alone join at this time.

    The old "I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me" applies to me and I suspect most people who leave parties outside Parliamentary and Councillor groups.
    It is in Manchester, though NW Essex is about the safest Tory seat in Essex now
    Apologies, just a little Monday morning joshing after some of the jibes about the LD Conference over the weekend.

    From what I remember about Conference attendance, you can tell a lot by the number and type of exhibitors who attend. I know at some of the Liberal Assemblies in the mid-80s, during the Alliance days, they got a lot of companies wanting to come and talk to delegates (or was it MPs in a future Alliance Government?).

    Labour went through some quiet years but by the mid-90s, they were getting lots of offers from companies to attend, sponsor fringe meetings etc as lobbying future Govenrment backbench MPs was seen as a good use of funds.

    I didn't go to the Reform Conference - does anyone know if they had a lot of exhibitors and who they were?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,089
    As funny as the Tory defections to Reform are, there is a problem for ReformTory. The schtick is that the LabCon uniparty has failed and needs to be ousted. That message will be much harder to deliver when significant numbers of the Reform front bench are the exact same people who were in government breaking the things they now want to fix.

    Part of the team Badenoch problem is that they endlessly list things that Labour have failed at. And relentlessly get called out for doing - or not doing - the exact same thing. The same will happen to ReformTory if we get Badenoch as Shadow Home Secretary berating the government over migration or Nadine Dorries attacking the Boriswave or Jacob Rees-Mogg attacking the lack of constitutional reform...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,089
    To build on my last point - its already an easy line of attack against the fukers up here. There have been so many Tory to Reform defections and we know more are coming. All are the disaffected and never affected (as Major nicely put it) or the mad, bad and lazy (as another Tory described them).
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,229
    It would be a proper lolz moment if Katie Lam, the new pbtory favourite made the jump.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,192
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    An interesting conspiracy theory on the clip after the Alastair Campbell one........

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VYPxN5EbuCE
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,584
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Morning, PB. I see Elon is now posting prayers on X. Evangelical Christianity, is coming our way.

    Elon Swaggart, or Jimmy Musk.

    It's complicated. Evangelicalism is a term like 'left' or 'right' in politics. Until you drill down into micro detail you have no idea what the term means in any individual case. (I am not one)

    Like the term 'right' there are in fact no interesting features of 'evangelicalism' which characterise all who use the label and at the same time distinguish them from other Christian identities.

    This is partly because the movement as a whole is an extraordinary amalgam of two incompatible theologies + various incompatible add ons.

    English evangelicals are almost all really nice decent people who love Jesus and try to do the square thing by their neighbour and are sometimes a bit boring and tend to think, wrongly, that they all agree with each other. they buy and read completely terrible books, funding an entire paper wasting industry.

    USA evangelicalism is a menace, deeply attached to race and politics, as we are seeing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    edited September 22
    Elon and The Prez have made Peace

    “Trump greeted Musk with a casual, “How are you doing?” before adding, “So Elon, I’ve heard you wanted to chat.”

    He then leaned in with a suggestion: “Let’s try and work out how to get back on track.”

    Musk simply nodded in response, as Trump tapped his hand and said, “I’ve missed you.””

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15120527/Trump-Elon-Musk-Charlie-Kirk-funeral-handshake.html

    In a world where there is far too much rancour and discord, let us celebrate two great men finding a way to make up and hug

    We’re getting the old team back together

    🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,691
    RochdalePioneers said:

    As funny as the Tory defections to Reform are, there is a problem for ReformTory. The schtick is that the LabCon uniparty has failed and needs to be ousted. That message will be much harder to deliver when significant numbers of the Reform front bench are the exact same people who were in government breaking the things they now want to fix.

    Part of the team Badenoch problem is that they endlessly list things that Labour have failed at. And relentlessly get called out for doing - or not doing - the exact same thing. The same will happen to ReformTory if we get Badenoch as Shadow Home Secretary berating the government over migration or Nadine Dorries attacking the Boriswave or Jacob Rees-Mogg attacking the lack of constitutional reform...

    But if one transitions from Tory MP to Reform MP one is immediately cleansed of the years in Government from 2010 to 2024 , why don't they all therefore jump ship, oust Farage and return to Government as clean skins in 2029?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,109
    HYUFD said:

    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors

    What about John Hayes (16/1)? His views seem to align with Reform pretty closely.
    Though I guess that he may not want to risk his huge Tory majority.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,219
    Stuartinromford said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I would imagine, if there were other defectors to Reform from the Conservatives, Reform will be saving the announcement(s) for the start of the Conservative Party Conference, which I imagine this year will be held in a small village hall near Saffron Walden.

    Unfortunately, said village hall is unavailable , because it's having its roof fixed by the Liberal Democrats. It's all those buggers ever do.
    Er, potholes say hello?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    algarkirk said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Morning, PB. I see Elon is now posting prayers on X. Evangelical Christianity, is coming our way.

    Elon Swaggart, or Jimmy Musk.

    It's complicated. Evangelicalism is a term like 'left' or 'right' in politics. Until you drill down into micro detail you have no idea what the term means in any individual case. (I am not one)

    Like the term 'right' there are in fact no interesting features of 'evangelicalism' which characterise all who use the label and at the same time distinguish them from other Christian identities.

    This is partly because the movement as a whole is an extraordinary amalgam of two incompatible theologies + various incompatible add ons.

    English evangelicals are almost all really nice decent people who love Jesus and try to do the square thing by their neighbour and are sometimes a bit boring and tend to think, wrongly, that they all agree with each other. they buy and read completely terrible books, funding an entire paper wasting industry.

    USA evangelicalism is a menace, deeply attached to race and politics, as we are seeing.
    There are some common traits, most evangelicals in the UK and USA for example tend to be Bible based and oppose same sex marriage and want to reduce abortions and take a traditional gender view of sexuality. There are also plenty of black evangelicals as well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    Northern_Al said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors

    What about John Hayes (16/1)? His views seem to align with Reform pretty closely.
    Though I guess that he may not want to risk his huge Tory majority.
    He is 67 and likely retires at the next election anyway
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 479
    algarkirk said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Morning, PB. I see Elon is now posting prayers on X. Evangelical Christianity, is coming our way.

    Elon Swaggart, or Jimmy Musk.

    It's complicated. Evangelicalism is a term like 'left' or 'right' in politics. Until you drill down into micro detail you have no idea what the term means in any individual case. (I am not one)

    Like the term 'right' there are in fact no interesting features of 'evangelicalism' which characterise all who use the label and at the same time distinguish them from other Christian identities.

    This is partly because the movement as a whole is an extraordinary amalgam of two incompatible theologies + various incompatible add ons.

    English evangelicals are almost all really nice decent people who love Jesus and try to do the square thing by their neighbour and are sometimes a bit boring and tend to think, wrongly, that they all agree with each other. they buy and read completely terrible books, funding an entire paper wasting industry.

    USA evangelicalism is a menace, deeply attached to race and politics, as we are seeing.
    Agree wholeheartedly. English (indeed, British) evangelicalism tends to have quite an affinity with left-leaning political parties and philosophies - not exclusively, and not uncritically, but remember the old adage that "The Labour Party owes more to Methodism than Marxism". The affluent areas of Surrey (perhaps the closest we have to a "Bible Belt") voted Lib Dem at the last General Election, and the Greenbelt Festival (a Christian Arts Festival with strong Evangelical roots) has always welcomed the sorts of people who would disgust their co-religionists across the Atlantic.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,584
    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    Yeah, I don't have an enormous amount of time for Campbell but he knows his craft. Saying Ministers come on the TV and when they finish you don't know what they have said is pretty devastating (and quite accurate).
    Anyone any idea what Davey was saying on R4 Today this morning? No idea. It seems to me that he is in a decent position to address the question asked, talk interestingly about political reality and the problems of choosing between alternatives, ad the nature of compromise. His voter base in winnable/held seats is basically choosing between LD and Tory. A dose of question answering and honesty can't do too much harm can it? And we would all start listening to him.

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,854
    HYUFD said:

    Northern_Al said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors

    What about John Hayes (16/1)? His views seem to align with Reform pretty closely.
    Though I guess that he may not want to risk his huge Tory majority.
    He is 67 and likely retires at the next election anyway
    That's true of at least a dozen Tory MPs... 10% of their total.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,782
    edited September 22
    America has been through a transformation, too, because the evangelical left helped elect Jimmy Carter.

    During the Reagan years, public religion also became much more tied to big money in the U.S.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    Judging by her comments last night Erika Trump is a genuine Christian, Trump is mainly Christian for show for his base as we expected based on his comments.

    'He did not hate his opponents. He wanted the best for them,' Trump said of Kirk.

    'That's where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponent, and I don't want the best for them.

    'I'm sorry. I am sorry, Erika, but now Erika can talk to me, and the whole group, and maybe they can convince me that that's not right, but I can't stand my opponent.'

    Moments before Trump's admission, Erika had stunned the crowd by publicly offering forgiveness to her husband's killer.

    'He [Charlie] wanted to save young men just like the one who took his life,' Erika said, sparking roars from the crowd and a standing ovation.

    'That man, that young man, I forgive him.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15121073/trump-charlie-kirk-widow-erika-forgive-assassin.html
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,584
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Morning, PB. I see Elon is now posting prayers on X. Evangelical Christianity, is coming our way.

    Elon Swaggart, or Jimmy Musk.

    It's complicated. Evangelicalism is a term like 'left' or 'right' in politics. Until you drill down into micro detail you have no idea what the term means in any individual case. (I am not one)

    Like the term 'right' there are in fact no interesting features of 'evangelicalism' which characterise all who use the label and at the same time distinguish them from other Christian identities.

    This is partly because the movement as a whole is an extraordinary amalgam of two incompatible theologies + various incompatible add ons.

    English evangelicals are almost all really nice decent people who love Jesus and try to do the square thing by their neighbour and are sometimes a bit boring and tend to think, wrongly, that they all agree with each other. they buy and read completely terrible books, funding an entire paper wasting industry.

    USA evangelicalism is a menace, deeply attached to race and politics, as we are seeing.
    There are some common traits, most evangelicals in the UK and USA for example tend to be Bible based and oppose same sex marriage and want to reduce abortions and take a traditional gender view of sexuality. There are also plenty of black evangelicals as well
    All Christians are 'Bible based', and the term is meaningless in separating out different Christian identities. It's just a slogan.

    To be conservative on same sex marriage, abortion and gender characterises Roman Catholics and many other identities as well as evangelicals. I suggest 'evangelical'as a label has not a single identifying 'USP'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    Pristine Georgian wine glasses are down about 75% in price from their auction-house peak

    The colossal fall in antique value is not limited to mahogany furniture. As a result I now drink almost exclusively from glassware made 1730-1830. The glasses are small, exquisite, full of character, and with every sip of Malbec you think - OMG Byron could literally have drunk port from this glass

    An example. £35. That’s the price of a nice but utterly generic, noom-less Riedel wine-goblet from John Lewis

    https://ebay.us/m/lTcm5k
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,778
    Good morning all. This looks like a classic lay the favourites market. The next Conservative to Reform defector is more likely to be someone we’ve hardly heard of.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,794
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    Yeah, I don't have an enormous amount of time for Campbell but he knows his craft. Saying Ministers come on the TV and when they finish you don't know what they have said is pretty devastating (and quite accurate).
    Anyone any idea what Davey was saying on R4 Today this morning? No idea. It seems to me that he is in a decent position to address the question asked, talk interestingly about political reality and the problems of choosing between alternatives, ad the nature of compromise. His voter base in winnable/held seats is basically choosing between LD and Tory. A dose of question answering and honesty can't do too much harm can it? And we would all start listening to him.

    He was OK on BBCTV today.

    And Good Morning one and all.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,778
    Leon said:

    Elon and The Prez have made Peace

    “Trump greeted Musk with a casual, “How are you doing?” before adding, “So Elon, I’ve heard you wanted to chat.”

    He then leaned in with a suggestion: “Let’s try and work out how to get back on track.”

    Musk simply nodded in response, as Trump tapped his hand and said, “I’ve missed you.””

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15120527/Trump-Elon-Musk-Charlie-Kirk-funeral-handshake.html

    In a world where there is far too much rancour and discord, let us celebrate two great men finding a way to make up and hug

    We’re getting the old team back together

    🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂

    🤮🤮🤮
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,636
    Northern_Al said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors

    What about John Hayes (16/1)? His views seem to align with Reform pretty closely.
    Though I guess that he may not want to risk his huge Tory majority.
    South Holland and the Deepings will almost certainly go Reform next time on current polling so his majority isnt too much of a consideration.
    Lincolnshire will probably be a sea of Turquoise, Gainsborough probably the best best to stay Con followed by Sleaford
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,691
    HYUFD said:

    Judging by her comments last night Erika Trump is a genuine Christian, Trump is mainly Christian for show for his base as we expected based on his comments.

    'He did not hate his opponents. He wanted the best for them,' Trump said of Kirk.

    'That's where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponent, and I don't want the best for them.

    'I'm sorry. I am sorry, Erika, but now Erika can talk to me, and the whole group, and maybe they can convince me that that's not right, but I can't stand my opponent.'

    Moments before Trump's admission, Erika had stunned the crowd by publicly offering forgiveness to her husband's killer.

    'He [Charlie] wanted to save young men just like the one who took his life,' Erika said, sparking roars from the crowd and a standing ovation.

    'That man, that young man, I forgive him.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15121073/trump-charlie-kirk-widow-erika-forgive-assassin.html

    Trump hasn't got a Christian bone in his body. And as for the Ten Commandments, he has never met one of them.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,636
    Fairliered said:

    Good morning all. This looks like a classic lay the favourites market. The next Conservative to Reform defector is more likely to be someone we’ve hardly heard of.

    Who will be framed as an intellectual giant and a huge blow to Badenoch
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,634
    edited September 22
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I would imagine, if there were other defectors to Reform from the Conservatives, Reform will be saving the announcement(s) for the start of the Conservative Party Conference, which I imagine this year will be held in a small village hall near Saffron Walden.

    Maximum capacity is 150 for the town hall is a village hall is not available.

    https://www.visitsaffronwalden.gov.uk/2020/02/saffron-walden-town-hall/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,192
    Nigelb said:

    Tea with Putin ?

    Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad has been poisoned and is in critical condition in a Russian hospital.
    https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1969841631202570335

    Wanted; Food taster. No allergies. No other qualifications required.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,195
    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,515
    Fairliered said:

    Good morning all. This looks like a classic lay the favourites market. The next Conservative to Reform defector is more likely to be someone we’ve hardly heard of.

    Except lays aren't possible unless you're Ladbrokes. So devious, these bookies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    I just watched this clip of Erika Kirk’s eulogy for her husband

    Wow. WOW WOW WOW

    https://x.com/__injaneb96/status/1969913302454309147?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Probably the most powerful example of speech-making I’ve seen this decade. Deeply moving. Made me stop and think. Watch it
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,778
    wooliedyed said:

    Northern_Al said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors

    What about John Hayes (16/1)? His views seem to align with Reform pretty closely.
    Though I guess that he may not want to risk his huge Tory majority.
    South Holland and the Deepings will almost certainly go Reform next time on current polling so his majority isnt too much of a consideration.
    Lincolnshire will probably be a sea of Turquoise, Gainsborough probably the best best to stay Con followed by Sleaford
    Lincoln would be more likely to resist the Reform tide.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    HYUFD said:

    Judging by her comments last night Erika Trump is a genuine Christian, Trump is mainly Christian for show for his base as we expected based on his comments.

    'He did not hate his opponents. He wanted the best for them,' Trump said of Kirk.

    'That's where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponent, and I don't want the best for them.

    'I'm sorry. I am sorry, Erika, but now Erika can talk to me, and the whole group, and maybe they can convince me that that's not right, but I can't stand my opponent.'

    Moments before Trump's admission, Erika had stunned the crowd by publicly offering forgiveness to her husband's killer.

    'He [Charlie] wanted to save young men just like the one who took his life,' Erika said, sparking roars from the crowd and a standing ovation.

    'That man, that young man, I forgive him.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15121073/trump-charlie-kirk-widow-erika-forgive-assassin.html

    Her speech/eulogy is going to galvanise the American Right. In good and bad ways. A sensational moment. Indeed: a Turning Point
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,782
    edited September 22
    Erika Kirk's sentiments on forgiveness were genuinely impressive.

    That was the voice of one of the authentically strongest aspects of Christianity managing to transcend even the abyss of much of the Trumpist Right gathered there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    An incredibly impressive woman
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,390
    ..
    Leon said:

    I just watched this clip of Erika Kirk’s eulogy for her husband

    Wow. WOW WOW WOW

    https://x.com/__injaneb96/status/1969913302454309147?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Probably the most powerful example of speech-making I’ve seen this decade. Deeply moving. Made me stop and think. Watch it

    Did it make you stop and think who is the hate-filled, orange buffoon that came after her?
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 479
    wooliedyed said:

    Fairliered said:

    Good morning all. This looks like a classic lay the favourites market. The next Conservative to Reform defector is more likely to be someone we’ve hardly heard of.

    Who will be framed as an intellectual giant and a huge blow to Badenoch
    Can I suggest a journalist? OK, not an MP, but some blow-hard op-ed writer from a broadsheet or one of the more respectable tabloids might, just, qualify as an intellectual giant in amongst that pygmy-populated land.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Morning, PB. I see Elon is now posting prayers on X. Evangelical Christianity, is coming our way.

    Elon Swaggart, or Jimmy Musk.

    It's complicated. Evangelicalism is a term like 'left' or 'right' in politics. Until you drill down into micro detail you have no idea what the term means in any individual case. (I am not one)

    Like the term 'right' there are in fact no interesting features of 'evangelicalism' which characterise all who use the label and at the same time distinguish them from other Christian identities.

    This is partly because the movement as a whole is an extraordinary amalgam of two incompatible theologies + various incompatible add ons.

    English evangelicals are almost all really nice decent people who love Jesus and try to do the square thing by their neighbour and are sometimes a bit boring and tend to think, wrongly, that they all agree with each other. they buy and read completely terrible books, funding an entire paper wasting industry.

    USA evangelicalism is a menace, deeply attached to race and politics, as we are seeing.
    There are some common traits, most evangelicals in the UK and USA for example tend to be Bible based and oppose same sex marriage and want to reduce abortions and take a traditional gender view of sexuality. There are also plenty of black evangelicals as well
    All Christians are 'Bible based', and the term is meaningless in separating out different Christian identities. It's just a slogan.

    To be conservative on same sex marriage, abortion and gender characterises Roman Catholics and many other identities as well as evangelicals. I suggest 'evangelical'as a label has not a single identifying 'USP'.
    Pope Francis allowed priests to give a blessing to same sex couples, conservative evangelicals wouldn't even allow that
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    Theuniondivvie said:

    ..

    Leon said:

    I just watched this clip of Erika Kirk’s eulogy for her husband

    Wow. WOW WOW WOW

    https://x.com/__injaneb96/status/1969913302454309147?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Probably the most powerful example of speech-making I’ve seen this decade. Deeply moving. Made me stop and think. Watch it

    Did it make you stop and think who is the hate-filled, orange buffoon that came after her?
    Yes, of course. The contrast is stark



  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,636
    edited September 22
    Fairliered said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Northern_Al said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of those listed probably Swayne or Chope would top the list of Tory to Reform defectors, though i doubt either will go.

    Braverman's husband of course went to Reform then came back. Can't see any Labour to Reform defectors

    What about John Hayes (16/1)? His views seem to align with Reform pretty closely.
    Though I guess that he may not want to risk his huge Tory majority.
    South Holland and the Deepings will almost certainly go Reform next time on current polling so his majority isnt too much of a consideration.
    Lincolnshire will probably be a sea of Turquoise, Gainsborough probably the best best to stay Con followed by Sleaford
    Lincoln would be more likely to resist the Reform tide.
    Ah yes, sorry, I should have said i meant the big Rural/Tory seats more generally (as we were talking about a possible Tory defection). If we include North Lincs which is a separate authority, Reform did less well there in the Lincs Mayoralty (the Tories only winning area) so perhaps the Humber estuary adjacent seats too.

    Rule of thumb, the further North and West in Lincs the harder Reform find it (relatively)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,325
    edited September 22
    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Its a rather a self-righteous, hypocritical love though isn't it, given that according to their theology they believe most of their persecutors are destined for eternal torment in hell.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,496
    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    Yeah, I don't have an enormous amount of time for Campbell but he knows his craft. Saying Ministers come on the TV and when they finish you don't know what they have said is pretty devastating (and quite accurate).
    Though, given that anything that politicians say will make them less popular, understandable.

    The Paxman style of political interview was great entertainment, and for a while, illuminating. But it probably didn't help us in the long run. By making the contest between bat and ball so uneven, it put politicians in a corner where learning to say nothing for three minutes was the best tactic.
    But the answer to that is not to say nothing. It is to say what you came on to say regardless of the question and keep saying it. That's what Ministers did in the Blair government and most other Ministers of any stripe since. That's what Campbell taught them.

    No doubt there are times when you can debate the finer points of an issue and give some insight into the nuances that are being considered. or influencing your thinking. 8.20 on the Today program where every ball is a bouncer and you are going to be talked over more than half the time is not it.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,634
    WhisperingOracle said:

    America has been through a transformation, too, because the evangelical left helped elect Jimmy Carter.

    During the Reagan years, public religion also became much more tied to big money in the U.S.

    So no point in pandering to the poor then. Those expensive religious white elephants/cathedrals don't build themselves.

    If you ever spend some time travelling Europe and the extensive array of religious buildings of all denominations, you firstly wonder at the architecture; secondly at the effort that was expended on them; and thirdly on the powers of persuasion (?) that financed them in the first place.

    I stop to ponder on whether religion is a strength, a crutch, or a method of control.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,054
    'The UK's now in a peculiar position of recognising Palestine, which barely functions as a political entity, yet we do not extend recognition to Taiwan or Somaliland, both of which have governments, legislatures and electoral systems, and are actually operative polities.'

    https://x.com/EliotWilson2/status/1969915565507555468
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Battlebus said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    America has been through a transformation, too, because the evangelical left helped elect Jimmy Carter.

    During the Reagan years, public religion also became much more tied to big money in the U.S.

    So no point in pandering to the poor then. Those expensive religious white elephants/cathedrals don't build themselves.

    If you ever spend some time travelling Europe and the extensive array of religious buildings of all denominations, you firstly wonder at the architecture; secondly at the effort that was expended on them; and thirdly on the powers of persuasion (?) that financed them in the first place.

    I stop to ponder on whether religion is a strength, a crutch, or a method of control.
    It's all three. Generally, at the same time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,794
    FrankBooth said:

    'The UK's now in a peculiar position of recognising Palestine, which barely functions as a political entity, yet we do not extend recognition to Taiwan or Somaliland, both of which have governments, legislatures and electoral systems, and are actually operative polities.'

    https://x.com/EliotWilson2/status/1969915565507555468

    Deleted
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 479
    another_richard said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Its a rather a self-righteous, hypocritical love though isn't it, given that according to their theology they believe most of their persecutors are destined for eternal torment in hell.
    Not necessarily. That might be true of a few ultra-Calvinist sects (as still exist in Northern Ireland) but most of the others have moved on.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,778
    OldKingCole said:

    FrankBooth said:

    'The UK's now in a peculiar position of recognising Palestine, which barely functions as a political entity, yet we do not extend recognition to Taiwan or Somaliland, both of which have governments, legislatures and electoral systems, and are actually operative polities.'

    https://x.com/EliotWilson2/status/1969915565507555468

    Deleted
    If Israel gets its own way, Palestine will be deleted.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,301
    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    I think we underestimate the extent to which politicians are people and their relationships matter to them. A defection may be as much about a relationship someone has developed with a politician in another party that they find is surprisingly like-minded, then it is about ideology or career ambitions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,690
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by her comments last night Erika Trump is a genuine Christian, Trump is mainly Christian for show for his base as we expected based on his comments.

    'He did not hate his opponents. He wanted the best for them,' Trump said of Kirk.

    'That's where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponent, and I don't want the best for them.

    'I'm sorry. I am sorry, Erika, but now Erika can talk to me, and the whole group, and maybe they can convince me that that's not right, but I can't stand my opponent.'

    Moments before Trump's admission, Erika had stunned the crowd by publicly offering forgiveness to her husband's killer.

    'He [Charlie] wanted to save young men just like the one who took his life,' Erika said, sparking roars from the crowd and a standing ovation.

    'That man, that young man, I forgive him.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15121073/trump-charlie-kirk-widow-erika-forgive-assassin.html

    Trump hasn't got a Christian bone in his body. And as for the Ten Commandments, he has never met one of them.
    Oh, I think he has.
    And trampled them underfoot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,690
    edited September 22
    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Now do the rest of the rally, paying particular attention to Stephen Miller.

    I though PBers were being a bit previous, referencing Horst Wessel prior to the rally.
    After Miller's rant, it now seems quite justified.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,690
    another_richard said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Its a rather a self-righteous, hypocritical love though isn't it, given that according to their theology they believe most of their persecutors are destined for eternal torment in hell.
    No, I get the impression (FWIW) that she's genuine, though I have a very different world view.
    The rest of the event was... somewhat different.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,546
    An excellent long-form discussion with an LLM-sceptic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emHCav2pxLA

    Quite sensible IMV.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,195
    another_richard said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Its a rather a self-righteous, hypocritical love though isn't it, given that according to their theology they believe most of their persecutors are destined for eternal torment in hell.
    I’m not sure I would have had it in me, at a memorial service for a loved one brutally murdered in public for his views, to espouse feelings of forgiveness towards the killer.

    Especially not in a stadium full of people including the President and most of the government.

    Of course it’s the right thing to say, but it takes a very special person to say the right thing in the aftermath of something so shocking.

    The court of law obviously takes a different view to the court of God, and this young man is going to spend the rest of his life in prison.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,118
    Roger said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    An interesting conspiracy theory on the clip after the Alastair Campbell one........

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VYPxN5EbuCE
    I don't buy the full conspiracy but yes, Gaza is one of the issues, and Epstein another, on which the MAGA support ship is starting to founder. Some of the ICE raids too. It is interesting that Americans can applaud Trump for blocking illegal immigration while not wanting commando raids on shopkeepers with funny accents. (This may be a lesson for Reform too, where they are just starting to talk about deporting legal immigrants. People have an innate sense of fairness.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,496
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by her comments last night Erika Trump is a genuine Christian, Trump is mainly Christian for show for his base as we expected based on his comments.

    'He did not hate his opponents. He wanted the best for them,' Trump said of Kirk.

    'That's where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponent, and I don't want the best for them.

    'I'm sorry. I am sorry, Erika, but now Erika can talk to me, and the whole group, and maybe they can convince me that that's not right, but I can't stand my opponent.'

    Moments before Trump's admission, Erika had stunned the crowd by publicly offering forgiveness to her husband's killer.

    'He [Charlie] wanted to save young men just like the one who took his life,' Erika said, sparking roars from the crowd and a standing ovation.

    'That man, that young man, I forgive him.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15121073/trump-charlie-kirk-widow-erika-forgive-assassin.html

    Trump hasn't got a Christian bone in his body. And as for the Ten Commandments, he has never met one of them.
    Oh, I think he has.
    And trampled them underfoot.
    More a to do list.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,298
    LostPassword said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.

    I think we underestimate the extent to which politicians are people and their relationships matter to them. A defection may be as much about a relationship someone has developed with a politician in another party that they find is surprisingly like-minded, then it is about ideology or career ambitions.
    I suppose it's always worth considering that politicians only support part of their party's platform, just like the rest of us. I usually vote Tory in general elections but it's unlikely I support 50% of their manifesto, just I agree with less of the other parties'. If I support 40% of the LibDems' manifesto then I am close to switching (and in fact I normally vote Lib Dem in local elections)

    You'd expect a MP to support a bit more of their party's platform, but platforms change and other parties may become better at representing their views
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,390
    edited September 22
    Sandpit said:

    another_richard said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Its a rather a self-righteous, hypocritical love though isn't it, given that according to their theology they believe most of their persecutors are destined for eternal torment in hell.
    I’m not sure I would have had it in me, at a memorial service for a loved one brutally murdered in public for his views, to espouse feelings of forgiveness towards the killer.

    Especially not in a stadium full of people including the President and most of the government.

    Of course it’s the right thing to say, but it takes a very special person to say the right thing in the aftermath of something so shocking.

    The court of law obviously takes a different view to the court of God, and this young man is going to spend the rest of his life in prison.
    Unless the 2nd Trump Reich gets its way. Hate your enemy then kill him, the 11th Commandment.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/tyler-robinson-chares-death-penalty-1.7635751

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,118
    FrankBooth said:

    'The UK's now in a peculiar position of recognising Palestine, which barely functions as a political entity, yet we do not extend recognition to Taiwan or Somaliland, both of which have governments, legislatures and electoral systems, and are actually operative polities.'

    https://x.com/EliotWilson2/status/1969915565507555468

    Starmer and Labour are in danger of falling into the same trap as Kemi and also the LibDems, of unserious, gesture politics.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,794
    Fairliered said:

    OldKingCole said:

    FrankBooth said:

    'The UK's now in a peculiar position of recognising Palestine, which barely functions as a political entity, yet we do not extend recognition to Taiwan or Somaliland, both of which have governments, legislatures and electoral systems, and are actually operative polities.'

    https://x.com/EliotWilson2/status/1969915565507555468

    Deleted
    If Israel gets its own way, Palestine will be deleted.
    Neat!

    Israel, it seems, takes a fundamentalist Biblical view; God gave the land of Canaan to the Jews and that means all of it!

    Although from my hazy memory of the Bible, Gaza was never Israelite/Jewish.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,425
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Roger said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    An interesting conspiracy theory on the clip after the Alastair Campbell one........

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VYPxN5EbuCE
    I don't buy the full conspiracy but yes, Gaza is one of the issues, and Epstein another, on which the MAGA support ship is starting to founder. Some of the ICE raids too. It is interesting that Americans can applaud Trump for blocking illegal immigration while not wanting commando raids on shopkeepers with funny accents. (This may be a lesson for Reform too, where they are just starting to talk about deporting legal immigrants. People have an innate sense of fairness.)
    It’s not fairness, people dislike the immigrants they don’t know but will protect those they know (even vaguely)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,485
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sandpit said:

    another_richard said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika, speaking at his memorial yesterday.

    https://x.com/tpusa/status/1969944725454192767

    My husband, Charlie. He wanted to save young men, just like the one who took his life. That young man. That young man on the cross. Our Savior said, "Father, forgive them, for they not know what they do." That man. That young man. I forgive him. I forgive him because it was what Christ did in his. What Charlie would do. The answer to hate is not hate. The answer we know from the gospel is love and always love.

    Love for our enemies and love for those who persecute us.

    Its a rather a self-righteous, hypocritical love though isn't it, given that according to their theology they believe most of their persecutors are destined for eternal torment in hell.
    I’m not sure I would have had it in me, at a memorial service for a loved one brutally murdered in public for his views, to espouse feelings of forgiveness towards the killer.

    Especially not in a stadium full of people including the President and most of the government.

    Of course it’s the right thing to say, but it takes a very special person to say the right thing in the aftermath of something so shocking.

    The court of law obviously takes a different view to the court of God, and this young man is going to spend the rest of his life in prison.
    Unless the 2nd Trump Reich gets its way. Hate your enemy then kill him, the 11th Commandment.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/tyler-robinson-chares-death-penalty-1.7635751

    I think most on PB are against the death penalty. However the person who murdered Kirk did so knowing that the death penalty would be a possibility if caught and found guilty. I don't particularly think this is one to lay at the altar of MAGA.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,725
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrankBooth said:

    'The UK's now in a peculiar position of recognising Palestine, which barely functions as a political entity, yet we do not extend recognition to Taiwan or Somaliland, both of which have governments, legislatures and electoral systems, and are actually operative polities.'

    https://x.com/EliotWilson2/status/1969915565507555468

    Starmer and Labour are in danger of falling into the same trap as Kemi and also the LibDems, of unserious, gesture politics.
    Here’s that new recognised Hamas state live streaming roadside executions in Gaza

    https://x.com/jonsac/status/1969817523324322272?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Well done, Sir Kier
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,690
    So google maps updated some satellite footage, here’s one single Ukrainian village. One out of thousands
    https://x.com/reshetz/status/1969833170225811592
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,054
    Roger said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    About as close as Alastair Campbell will ever get to complimenting Nigel Farage…
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hteDhCJWIf8

    45 seconds of TRiP clip most interesting for the throwaway criticism of government ministers.

    An interesting conspiracy theory on the clip after the Alastair Campbell one........

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VYPxN5EbuCE
    I can see why you would find that conspiracy interesting.
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