One observation on your successes for the 2010-24 government. Both gay marriage and net zero were and are controversial with the base, but not with the public at large. In the old days of big tent parties, that sort of thing was the mark of a confident, successful party, able to reach out to the wider public. Now, parties don't seem capable of that.
The big tents have collapsed here, much as they have in France, Germany, Spain. America seems to have a different pathology, where parties have drifted from the centre but the strength of the system has kept two parties in place- for now, anyway.
Question is why? Failings of the old big two? Impossibility of dealing with the times we are in by anybody? A failure of society where none of us is willing to compromise on anything?
One cheery thought to finish- five or six parties who hate each other is bad enough with a PR election. It turns FPTP into a complete lottery.
There will be many reasons. But a biggie in my mind is that t'Internet tells far too many people that there are easy solutions to the problems that face us. As an extreme example, why should we look for real solutions, when we can just chuck out the foreigners?
They do a lot of chucking out right enough, only 50,000+ in hotels and rising by the day, millions unaccounted for , but hey we have managed to swap two of them with France. Stupid people and do gooders cannot grasp that you cannot just dump millions of strangers in a country in a short time and think it will all be sweetness and light. You are biased entirely and don't want to even look at the topic given your own circumstances but you having a wife from outside the UK does not mean that it is right to allow unlimited people to flood into the country. It will end in tears for sure.
I'm not saying it is right to allow unlimited people into the country, and never have. The whole situation is a mess, and lots of people (including lawyers...) are making a lot of money out of it, whilst the public suffer.
*BUT* the talk is going far too far. Massive numbers of immigrants contribute to society, and even keep our services going. Yet it's becoming that anyone who cannot trace their Britishness back for umpteen generations is the enemy. It's not about boat people; it's about all immigrants.
We also need to remember that immigrants are people too, and someone calling for them to be drowned at sea should be put adrift into a boat in the North Sea to see how they like it.
I’m really sick of this ‘immigrants keep our services going’ guff. Our services keep going due to the contribution of ALL involved in it. Your line just diminishes the efforts of non migrants.
Not to mention that immigrants use services as well.
As well as require housing, contribute to transport congestion, add to pressure on the environment etc.
Okay. You and @Taz can only use public services that are not provided by immigrants. You will have to wait for a White British bin crew to come along to have your bins emptied; if you need A&E, you will have to wait for a White British ambulance crew, And when in hospital, you can only be treated by White British doctors and nurses. You can only get petrol from a petrol station that has White British staff, and only travel on public transport that has White British staff.
That'll go well for you.
This is absurd, have you never heard of the lump of labour fallacy?
Immigrants don't 'steal jobs', nor do they keep services going, they're simply people and jobs scale with the number of people that we have.
We could import 70 million working age people over the next decade and we would not have 70 million working age unemployed people as a result because of all jobs being filled already, they'd be working in new jobs created due to the extra demand.
Ditto if we have job vacancies nationwide then importing people does not fill those vacancies, net, since it creates new demand and that new demand needs filling with new jobs.
Unemployment is caused by wages being too high for the jobs, not a surplus of people. Vacancies (net) are caused by wages being too low for the jobs, not a deficit of people.
I assume that this has been posted already but I've just seen that Corbyn is no longer a 'person with significant control of 'your party' as of 15 September 2025'.
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
I see you are taking the side of the sexist boys' club
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
I find it depressing that you think nobody can have a better approach to immigration than Nigel Farage. As if it’s a topic only he is allowed to talk about. It’s like saying only Putin can opine on who should run the Donbas.
Ed’s “But we've got thought-through policies about how you would do that in a humane way, unlike people like Farage and the Conservatives” is where a lot of voters in this country are - not that you’d know that from media that presents the entire country as roiling xenophobes.
Upon reading the piece, this was their old policy:
The party's manifesto says it would work with Europol and the French authorities to "stop the smuggling and trafficking gangs" behind the crossings.
So a version of 'smash the gangs' that has now been bitterly exposed because it isn't an actual policy, it's a statement of pro-European sentiment. It's a pose not a policy.
Now he says:
"We need to process the applications really quickly, deport people who have no right to be here, and if they have a right to be here, get them working so the taxpayer isn't paying for the hotels,"
But at the current grant rate, which is the highest in the known world, an acceleration of processing would result in an explosion of grants, the news of which would spread like wildfire and result in an explosion of crossings. If processing was accelerated and the grant rate brought right down (Japan only grants 2% of asylum claims ffs), it might have a beneficial effect, but he's not brave enough to say (or presumably do) that.
He says we need to deport people - why didn't anyone else think of that? The law allows endless legal challenges to deportations. He doesn't mention any change to the law to end these bottomless challenges, so his allusion to deportations is utterly hollow.
He is laughably off the pace in every regard. And the only reason this adjustment in tone is happening at all is because the Lib Dems are soggy centrists, so they have to respond to shifts in the Overton window, by moving right but saying 'we would do it in a *nice* way'. They have no principles whatsoever than being a blander version of the flavour of the month.
While we don't usually agree, your last paras are why I've not considered joining the LibDems despite my dissatisfaction with Labour - the LibDem profile is subject to adjustment according to current moods, often without reallly engaging with the complexities. I'd argue that this is a major reason why they haven't benefited significantly from the collapse in major party support - everyone thinks they're quite nice some of the time, but not enough to switch votes.
They just have no solutions. Who on earth, Tim included, thinks they would have done/do a better job than Starmer? And on what do they base this theory? I can't see a shred of difference.
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
Not just lefties – haven't Reform's happy band been suing each other?
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Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
I have one of the dwindling number of Tory MPs in my constituency, and not a bad one in terms of views, and would have been comfortable in Major or Cameron governments. Lab were second last year, with Reform and LDs not far behind.
It's very likely to be between Reform and Con next GE, but there is no way that I would tactically vote Con as it is pretty nailed on that Con would support a minority Farage government, or formally merge.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
I wonder if Farage would accept an offer that made him leader of the Conservative Party. There would be risk for him from regicide from the remaining wets. But perhaps he’d accept if he had control of MP nominations.
At the moment of course no need for him to accept such an offer as he’s locked on for a majority anyway. But who knows, if Jenrick pulls the tories up a bit and a new Labour leader consolidates the left and brings a few Red Reformers home.
Trump has just taken a shotgun and blown both feet off the US economy with the stroke of a pen...
H1-B fee, $100k per employee per year
As often with Trump he is kinda of right that the H1-B has been abused, it was too cheap, and a backdoor to bring in cheaper Labour, a lot from India with some dubious qualifications or just to undercut US workers. But it also is how most tech companies bring in genuine talent.
Even the likes of Google aren't going to pay $100k per year per employee for all the best of the best of the best, who were already probably not using H1-B route anyway. Canada will be rubbing his hands, as big tech can easily setup more offices in the likes of Vancouver (especially the ones like Adobe that already have big presence in Seattle).
Friends of mine who fell foul of H1B quotas in the past got in on O1 visas. Perhaps an increase in applications there...
I am sure that will happen. A problem with the O1 route is it is much more time consuming to get processed and you really have to prove your talent. For a Google, I am sure they can still hire the top top tier talent with an established academic track record and a) willing to wait, b) can have them work in a lab in say Switzerland in the meantime, but a start-up that has a limited runway, wants say somebody straight out a PhD, that I think is a lot tougher. The H1B visa was a really good route for that.
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
Outside of an active war zone, this is absurd and dangerous.
The Pentagon told journalists it will require them to pledge they won’t gather any information — even unclassified — that hasn’t been expressly authorized for release, and will revoke the press credentials of those who do not obey. https://x.com/ScottNover/status/1969173995128758711
Increasingly clear that this administration is trying to destroy independent journalism.
Interesting interview on BBC News last night with a few of Tommy Robinson's flag wavers. They were asked why they chose to follow the several times convicted Tommy?
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
This is where the 'White British' shite that spread recently - including on here - is so pernicious. It's not just about Muslims; it's not just about boat people. It's about anyone who is seen as being 'different'.
The ugliness of the people on that march cannot be exaggerated. The confusion between them and the Faragists if such a confusion exists is probably a good thing. No self respecting person would want to tarnished by association with those gruesome fascists
One encounters a better class of fascist in Provence.
One observation on your successes for the 2010-24 government. Both gay marriage and net zero were and are controversial with the base, but not with the public at large. In the old days of big tent parties, that sort of thing was the mark of a confident, successful party, able to reach out to the wider public. Now, parties don't seem capable of that.
The big tents have collapsed here, much as they have in France, Germany, Spain. America seems to have a different pathology, where parties have drifted from the centre but the strength of the system has kept two parties in place- for now, anyway.
Question is why? Failings of the old big two? Impossibility of dealing with the times we are in by anybody? A failure of society where none of us is willing to compromise on anything?
One cheery thought to finish- five or six parties who hate each other is bad enough with a PR election. It turns FPTP into a complete lottery.
There will be many reasons. But a biggie in my mind is that t'Internet tells far too many people that there are easy solutions to the problems that face us. As an extreme example, why should we look for real solutions, when we can just chuck out the foreigners?
They do a lot of chucking out right enough, only 50,000+ in hotels and rising by the day, millions unaccounted for , but hey we have managed to swap two of them with France. Stupid people and do gooders cannot grasp that you cannot just dump millions of strangers in a country in a short time and think it will all be sweetness and light. You are biased entirely and don't want to even look at the topic given your own circumstances but you having a wife from outside the UK does not mean that it is right to allow unlimited people to flood into the country. It will end in tears for sure.
I'm not saying it is right to allow unlimited people into the country, and never have. The whole situation is a mess, and lots of people (including lawyers...) are making a lot of money out of it, whilst the public suffer.
*BUT* the talk is going far too far. Massive numbers of immigrants contribute to society, and even keep our services going. Yet it's becoming that anyone who cannot trace their Britishness back for umpteen generations is the enemy. It's not about boat people; it's about all immigrants.
We also need to remember that immigrants are people too, and someone calling for them to be drowned at sea should be put adrift into a boat in the North Sea to see how they like it.
I’m really sick of this ‘immigrants keep our services going’ guff. Our services keep going due to the contribution of ALL involved in it. Your line just diminishes the efforts of non migrants.
Not to mention that immigrants use services as well.
As well as require housing, contribute to transport congestion, add to pressure on the environment etc.
Okay. You and @Taz can only use public services that are not provided by immigrants. You will have to wait for a White British bin crew to come along to have your bins emptied; if you need A&E, you will have to wait for a White British ambulance crew, And when in hospital, you can only be treated by White British doctors and nurses. You can only get petrol from a petrol station that has White British staff, and only travel on public transport that has White British staff.
That'll go well for you.
This is very much a fait accompli.
And yes, we have to accept that what's happened has happened. We can't turn the clock back. But that doesn't mean the future isn't up for debate.
Exactly and my objection to Jessie was his ‘services are reliant on immigrants’ line as it diminishes efforts of others. It’s the same when politicians claim immigrants built Britain. Everyone did.
I don’t object to immigration as long as it is controlled and in line with our needs
And your 'line' diminishes the work of immigrants.
IMV it's quite simple: if you are here and are contributing, or have contributed (**), or will contribute (*), then you are absolutely 100% welcome regardless of skin colour, ethnicity, sexuality, or anything else.
After that, it gets much more complex.
(*) In the case of kids. (**) In the case of retirees.
Trouble is, that was the modelling that underpinned Boris's immigration model.
And we know how that ended up.
Hats off to the Conservatives over one element of the Labour immigration crisis. The boil of New Labour's EU succession nation immigration catastrophe was lanced by the Tories and net migration from the EU in the last year of the Conservative administration was a very impressive (just shy of) minus 100,000.
No queuing behind the Poles at the GP surgery now. Can we cancel Brexit?
Yes, over the last decade all of Iberian nurses and Greek doctors have been replaced by Keralans, Filipinos, Egyptians, Ghanaians and Zimbabweans. A lovely bunch to work with in the main, and pretty much all brought families with them for permanent settlement.
A definite Brexit benefit.
Of course there's never been any third world immigration to Leicester until the last decade.
Meanwhile the number of EU NHS workers has likely increased:
Note that the government prevents an increase in students at medical school.
The cap hasn’t increased in pace with the number employed in the NHS.
That's not quite true. Both the last government and this one have signed up to the NHS workforce plan to double medical school places*.
No funding attached of course, nor physical expansion of medical schools, nor reallocation of trained medical staff to education rather than clinical duties, nor funding for postgraduate training places etc etc.
If ever there was a case of virtue signalling...
*though judging by the applicants in last years interviews only about 10% would be "white British", the vast majority of applicants being second or third generation migrants. While some come from immigrant medical families, quite a number come from backgrounds where parents were unskilled immigrants. Perhaps Leicester is an outlier as seen to be positive about multiculturalism, and has a positive programme to widen access across SE classes, but I dont think by much.
Has the cap on university places actually been changed - IIRC there was considerable sarcasm directed at the fact it hadn’t. Along with the absence of finance, or even planning for more trainees.
It hasn't happened at Leicester. Elsewhere? Tumbleweed...
Trump has just taken a shotgun and blown both feet off the US economy with the stroke of a pen...
H1-B fee, $100k per employee per year
As often with Trump he is kinda of right that the H1-B has been abused, it was too cheap, and a backdoor to bring in cheaper Labour, a lot from India with some dubious qualifications or just to undercut US workers. But it also is how most tech companies bring in genuine talent.
Even the likes of Google aren't going to pay $100k per year per employee for all the best of the best of the best, who were already probably not using H1-B route anyway. Canada will be rubbing his hands, as big tech can easily setup more offices in the likes of Vancouver (especially the ones like Adobe that already have big presence in Seattle).
Assume as per it'll be brought down to $25k after the market tanks....
A student "overstayer" who repeatedly raped a 12-year-old girl after arranging for taxis to bring her to his flat late at night has been jailed.
Wisal Ahmad, 30, had been studying in Scotland, but after running out of funds he ended up working in Bradford where he befriended the girl on social media, a court heard.
Are we now supposed to hate everyone called Ahmad? Or is this just clickbait for Leon and Max?
Well for a start, it questions the notion that we shouldn't be concerned about students in the migration numbers because they leave at the end of their courses.
Second, it shows that the authorities are incapable of doing anything about those who don't leave.
And thirdly, another example of horrific criminality perpetrated by someone who shouldn't even be here.
Interesting interview on BBC News last night with a few of Tommy Robinson's flag wavers. They were asked why they chose to follow the several times convicted Tommy?
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
This is where the 'White British' shite that spread recently - including on here - is so pernicious. It's not just about Muslims; it's not just about boat people. It's about anyone who is seen as being 'different'.
The ugliness of the people on that march cannot be exaggerated. The confusion between them and the Faragists if such a confusion exists is probably a good thing. No self respecting person would want to tarnished by association with those gruesome fascists
One encounters a better class of fascist in Provence.
They're not bad in Luton. Reeta Chakrabati interviews some Tommy marchers
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
Not just lefties – haven't Reform's happy band been suing each other?
Roger buried the lede here. She's consulting libel lawyers.
Trump has just taken a shotgun and blown both feet off the US economy with the stroke of a pen...
H1-B fee, $100k per employee per year
As often with Trump he is kinda of right that the H1-B has been abused, it was too cheap, and a backdoor to bring in cheaper Labour, a lot from India with some dubious qualifications or just to undercut US workers. But it also is how most tech companies bring in genuine talent.
Even the likes of Google aren't going to pay $100k per year per employee for all the best of the best of the best, who were already probably not using H1-B route anyway. Canada will be rubbing his hands, as big tech can easily setup more offices in the likes of Vancouver (especially the ones like Adobe that already have big presence in Seattle).
Assume as per it'll be brought down to $25k after the market tanks....
To me the obvious thing to do is up the salary somebody has to be on. $150-200k a year (I believe off the top of my head its current $60-70k), the tech companies still get to hire talent, but you aren't undercutting locals with "cheap" labour, if you are paying somebody that it is because you really rate them. Even start-ups, if they aren't paying that for hires, its questionable what they are doing.
Trump has just taken a shotgun and blown both feet off the US economy with the stroke of a pen...
H1-B fee, $100k per employee per year
As often with Trump he is kinda of right that the H1-B has been abused, it was too cheap, and a backdoor to bring in cheaper Labour, a lot from India with some dubious qualifications or just to undercut US workers. But it also is how most tech companies bring in genuine talent.
Even the likes of Google aren't going to pay $100k per year per employee for all the best of the best of the best, who were already probably not using H1-B route anyway. Canada will be rubbing his hands, as big tech can easily setup more offices in the likes of Vancouver (especially the ones like Adobe that already have big presence in Seattle).
Assume as per it'll be brought down to $25k after the market tanks....
To me the obvious thing to do is up the salary somebody has to be on. $150-200k a year (I believe off the top of my head its current $60-70k), the big tech companies still get to hire talent, but you aren't undercutting locals with "cheap" labour, if you are paying somebody that it is because you really rate them.
Well yes but where is the money for Trump in that method
F1: I tend not to offer qualifying tips, but I'm waiting for Ladbrokes, largely to see the Hamilton numbers (and maybe Verstappen, but I think his odds will be too short).
If the new, improved, electable Conservative Party is tacking to the right to see off Reform, is Kemi the face of it? Or should it be the fragrant Katie Lam?
Increasingly it looks that we will be inauguration new Tory and Labour leaders at the 2026 party conferences.
Unfortunately, bad as the incumbents are, I wouldn't want to bet much that their successors will be upgrades. One of the problems of our times is that we're all much better at describing what we don't want than we are at describing what we do.
Right- off to the butcher's. Which may be an apt metaphor for the fate of high-profile politicians.
Whatever you do, don’t look at how the sausages are made.
Trump has just taken a shotgun and blown both feet off the US economy with the stroke of a pen...
H1-B fee, $100k per employee per year
As often with Trump he is kinda of right that the H1-B has been abused, it was too cheap, and a backdoor to bring in cheaper Labour, a lot from India with some dubious qualifications or just to undercut US workers. But it also is how most tech companies bring in genuine talent.
Even the likes of Google aren't going to pay $100k per year per employee for all the best of the best of the best, who were already probably not using H1-B route anyway. Canada will be rubbing his hands, as big tech can easily setup more offices in the likes of Vancouver (especially the ones like Adobe that already have big presence in Seattle).
Assume as per it'll be brought down to $25k after the market tanks....
To me the obvious thing to do is up the salary somebody has to be on. $150-200k a year (I believe off the top of my head its current $60-70k), the big tech companies still get to hire talent, but you aren't undercutting locals with "cheap" labour, if you are paying somebody that it is because you really rate them.
Well yes but where is the money for Trump in that method
Good point, the mafia always insist on their kickback.
In Bracknell, it's obviously the Lib Dems who are best placed. You just need a bar chart which represents the data more accurately.
I think there's a parallel between Lab and the Cons - neither are being what they want to be. That is, Sir Keir does not have the courage of his own convictions, and won't fight on his own ground which at the moment should be Workers' Rights and Renters' Rights - every day. Plus stamping on Farage ("where did the money come from?". "why did you deceive Congress?") whilst waling past. At present he is mainstreaming Reform more than they deserve.
And the Tories are still flailing around in the dustbin of history. They haven't looked in the mirror at what they have become, and not starting from "here" they have no roadmap to get to where they want to be.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
Not just lefties – haven't Reform's happy band been suing each other?
Roger buried the lede here. She's consulting libel lawyers.
Carter Ruck would be hilarious.
Hiring them is an admission you're the one in the wrong.
Trump has just taken a shotgun and blown both feet off the US economy with the stroke of a pen...
H1-B fee, $100k per employee per year
As often with Trump he is kinda of right that the H1-B has been abused, it was too cheap, and a backdoor to bring in cheaper Labour, a lot from India with some dubious qualifications or just to undercut US workers. But it also is how most tech companies bring in genuine talent.
Even the likes of Google aren't going to pay $100k per year per employee for all the best of the best of the best, who were already probably not using H1-B route anyway. Canada will be rubbing his hands, as big tech can easily setup more offices in the likes of Vancouver (especially the ones like Adobe that already have big presence in Seattle).
Assume as per it'll be brought down to $25k after the market tanks....
To me the obvious thing to do is up the salary somebody has to be on. $150-200k a year (I believe off the top of my head its current $60-70k), the tech companies still get to hire talent, but you aren't undercutting locals with "cheap" labour, if you are paying somebody that it is because you really rate them. Even start-ups, if they aren't paying that for hires, its questionable what they are doing.
I think because it's also used in specialist industries which aren't on the CompSci pay scale. But some increase, clearly. Or per-industry rates.
Outside of an active war zone, this is absurd and dangerous.
The Pentagon told journalists it will require them to pledge they won’t gather any information — even unclassified — that hasn’t been expressly authorized for release, and will revoke the press credentials of those who do not obey. https://x.com/ScottNover/status/1969173995128758711
Increasingly clear that this administration is trying to destroy independent journalism.
People were complacent about the damage Trump did on Jan 6 because the system held in the end, and they're complacent now. A lot of political culture and society relies on, in essence, a pinky promise not to egregiously abuse authority.
F1: I tend not to offer qualifying tips, but I'm waiting for Ladbrokes, largely to see the Hamilton numbers (and maybe Verstappen, but I think his odds will be too short).
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
Not just lefties – haven't Reform's happy band been suing each other?
Roger buried the lede here. She's consulting libel lawyers.
Carter Ruck would be hilarious.
Hiring them is an admission you're the one in the wrong.
I'm just interested to see what damage to reputation is alleged, beyond that which is self inflicted.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
I have one of the dwindling number of Tory MPs in my constituency, and not a bad one in terms of views, and would have been comfortable in Major or Cameron governments. Lab were second last year, with Reform and LDs not far behind.
It's very likely to be between Reform and Con next GE, but there is no way that I would tactically vote Con as it is pretty nailed on that Con would support a minority Farage government, or formally merge.
The question is whether its Conservative and Reform Party or the Reform and Conservative Party. Farage is riding high so will want to be in control.
The Tories might actually fade away - they seem to have no energy or passionate support, so anyone not on board with Reform will probably just retire, maybe a handful defecting elsewhere.
If France is the model and we get AV like their second ballot then the LDs would be the likely beneficiaries, being the centrist fiscal realist party Macron's party now is. Indeed many of Macron's PMs have also come from Les Republicains, including the current one, so you could also see a return to something like the old Tory-LD coalition maybe with Labour splitting between Starmer and New Labour loyalists and others going to Corbyn and Your Party and the Greens, the UK equivalent of Melenchon's block. Reform meanwhile would be the party of the Nationalist anti immigration right like RN with some libertarian Thatcherites too.
For the Tories, Cleverly may be the best answer for the next GE, most likely to at least hold the 24% who voted for Sunak in 2024 and who did not hate the last government. Cleverly can also point out net immigration is now falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements he and Sunak brought in, enabling him to focus on opposing Labour's tax rises and the economy
F1: I tend not to offer qualifying tips, but I'm waiting for Ladbrokes, largely to see the Hamilton numbers (and maybe Verstappen, but I think his odds will be too short).
Hamilton might be a tempting each way bet
That's my thinking. Race win market's up so qualifying shouldn't be long (but I'm going to have t be AFK for an hour or so, shortly, should still have time to post it pre-qualifying, though).
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
I see you are taking the side of the sexist boys' club
No. She is the one consulting lawyers. From what I gather Corbyn's boys club would be happy fighting the good fight undisturbed by resolutions committees anarcho-syndicalism and the other guff the Sultanas are churning out
If the new, improved, electable Conservative Party is tacking to the right to see off Reform, is Kemi the face of it? Or should it be the fragrant Katie Lam?
Jenrick is the most popular choice to succeed Kemi with 2024 Reform voters but Cleverly is the most popular choice amongst 2024 Conservative voters from potential Tory leaders in Parliament
Outside of an active war zone, this is absurd and dangerous.
The Pentagon told journalists it will require them to pledge they won’t gather any information — even unclassified — that hasn’t been expressly authorized for release, and will revoke the press credentials of those who do not obey. https://x.com/ScottNover/status/1969173995128758711
Increasingly clear that this administration is trying to destroy independent journalism.
Is this the fallout from revealing the random strangers invited to the Let's Bomb Iran call and in the process embarrassing Pete Hegseth?
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
I find it depressing that you think nobody can have a better approach to immigration than Nigel Farage. As if it’s a topic only he is allowed to talk about. It’s like saying only Putin can opine on who should run the Donbas.
Ed’s “But we've got thought-through policies about how you would do that in a humane way, unlike people like Farage and the Conservatives” is where a lot of voters in this country are - not that you’d know that from media that presents the entire country as roiling xenophobes.
Upon reading the piece, this was their old policy:
The party's manifesto says it would work with Europol and the French authorities to "stop the smuggling and trafficking gangs" behind the crossings.
So a version of 'smash the gangs' that has now been bitterly exposed because it isn't an actual policy, it's a statement of pro-European sentiment. It's a pose not a policy.
Now he says:
"We need to process the applications really quickly, deport people who have no right to be here, and if they have a right to be here, get them working so the taxpayer isn't paying for the hotels,"
But at the current grant rate, which is the highest in the known world, an acceleration of processing would result in an explosion of grants, the news of which would spread like wildfire and result in an explosion of crossings. If processing was accelerated and the grant rate brought right down (Japan only grants 2% of asylum claims ffs), it might have a beneficial effect, but he's not brave enough to say (or presumably do) that.
He says we need to deport people - why didn't anyone else think of that? The law allows endless legal challenges to deportations. He doesn't mention any change to the law to end these bottomless challenges, so his allusion to deportations is utterly hollow.
He is laughably off the pace in every regard. And the only reason this adjustment in tone is happening at all is because the Lib Dems are soggy centrists, so they have to respond to shifts in the Overton window, by moving right but saying 'we would do it in a *nice* way'. They have no principles whatsoever than being a blander version of the flavour of the month.
This is comparing apples and pears. The party policy has always been to speed up processing, and it’s also been to accelerate getting claimants into the workforce, unlike the other parties. There is no contradiction or opportunism there.
Both Tory (now Reform) and Labour tropes about the Lib Dems are based on deductive thinking. They assume the party and its adherents are a certain way, then apply a circular logic to anything they say. And a lot of it is projection.
Interesting interview on BBC News last night with a few of Tommy Robinson's flag wavers. They were asked why they chose to follow the several times convicted Tommy?
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
This is where the 'White British' shite that spread recently - including on here - is so pernicious. It's not just about Muslims; it's not just about boat people. It's about anyone who is seen as being 'different'.
The ugliness of the people on that march cannot be exaggerated. The confusion between them and the Faragists if such a confusion exists is probably a good thing. No self respecting person would want to tarnished by association with those gruesome fascists
One encounters a better class of fascist in Provence.
They're not bad in Luton. Reeta Chakrabati interviews some Tommy marchers
F1: I'll post the ramble shortly (or in an hour if I have to go first) but I've backed Hamilton each way in qualifying at 12. Odds against but credible.
With our ballooning surplus and endlessly overflowing national coffers, I'm ever so grateful they've found a way to finally spend some of our excess cash.
The two child cap is basically ideological. We can't have all those lower classes breeding..... Instead we are importing populations of unknown provenance and (ideologically) we don't like that either.
Politics has a way of producing the worst possible outcomes.
Given the UK birthrate is 1.4, the 2 child benefit cap still sees the taxpayer subsidise the children of those on benefits and subsidises more children per benefit family than most of them are having per family. That will include of course immigrant families on benefits.
Far better would be to keep to 2 child benefit cap and fund increased child benefit for most parents instead
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
Thanks. Re: solutions - I feel that the Tories' fate is not entirely in their own hands. They really need Labour to recover at least somewhat or the danger is that the voters will want to sweep the whole system away. And they need Reform to make mistakes.
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
I see you are taking the side of the sexist boys' club
No. She is the one consulting lawyers. From what I gather Corbyn's boys club would be happy fighting the good fight undisturbed by resolutions committees anarcho-syndicalism and the other guff the Sultanas are churning out
Well, they have effectively accused her of fraud and data protection offences so seeking legal advice seems reasonable.
So it is old-fashioned hard left and Gaza jihadists unencumbered by democracy vs "new left" and something more collective
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Actually a dinner held to mark the Presidential visit to meet some high honchos (other than the Prez) and funded by a Usoian media firm. So it's not clear that your interpretation fits?
Mrs Sultana is now consulting lawyers. Why is it left wing splinter groups so often allow principles to disappear out the window when personal ambition is at stake?
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Interesting interview on BBC News last night with a few of Tommy Robinson's flag wavers. They were asked why they chose to follow the several times convicted Tommy?
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
This is where the 'White British' shite that spread recently - including on here - is so pernicious. It's not just about Muslims; it's not just about boat people. It's about anyone who is seen as being 'different'.
The ugliness of the people on that march cannot be exaggerated. The confusion between them and the Faragists if such a confusion exists is probably a good thing. No self respecting person would want to tarnished by association with those gruesome fascists
One encounters a better class of fascist in Provence.
They're not bad in Luton. Reeta Chakrabati interviews some Tommy marchers
I think those are quite possibly people encouraged to come forward with prepared lines; that's what they do in most places. Bussed-in people saying "we are ordinary locals", whilst the media are too busy or too stupid to do homework, dig a little, and ask the difficult questions.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
Thanks. Re: solutions - I feel that the Tories' fate is not entirely in their own hands. They really need Labour to recover at least somewhat or the danger is that the voters will want to sweep the whole system away. And they need Reform to make mistakes.
In terms of solutions, I mooted some thoughts upthread. It's about maximising what they can hold or win right now whilst accepting a swift return to power has gone from the equation. Staying on the pitch with mayors, councils they manage to hold or win and leveraging the proportional representation- Holyrood, Senedd, London Assembly. It will be somewhat easier to fight 2029 than 2024, they haven't got to pretend they can defend 360 seats and they can focus on the best 150 to 200. Their one advantage they have at the moment is still raising the most in donations of any party so they probably need to make good use while that lasts
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Boris to be leader of the Tory/Faragist coalition? A clean up of the Red bus some new typography and we have a marriage made in heaven. They might even win
Very inadequate edition of Newsnight last night. First its budget was cut, and now it's time has been cut. Most of the reporting has gone, and presenters have been imported from five live. As one might expect, the results are that the tone of the programme ismoving towards banal, rushed infotainment.
It is like tax, you see. Cut the BBC, defund the BBC, close down the BBC – except for the programmes I watch and the stations I listen to.
But the changes have been implemented by BBC management. They have actively CHOSEN to dumb down Newsnight. Then look at some of the programming choices they have supported.
It doesn't give confidence that they know what they are doing.
And to think, they could have been the world's pre-eminent news brand.
That is what I am getting at. The BBC has had to make cuts. You are complaining they cut the programmes you watch, instead of cutting the programmes you do not watch. And others will make the same complaints, albeit with slightly different programmes in mind.
My point is they are making the programmes I no longer watch, because of decisions to dumb down their brand.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
Interesting interview on BBC News last night with a few of Tommy Robinson's flag wavers. They were asked why they chose to follow the several times convicted Tommy?
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
This is where the 'White British' shite that spread recently - including on here - is so pernicious. It's not just about Muslims; it's not just about boat people. It's about anyone who is seen as being 'different'.
The ugliness of the people on that march cannot be exaggerated. The confusion between them and the Faragists if such a confusion exists is probably a good thing. No self respecting person would want to tarnished by association with those gruesome fascists
One encounters a better class of fascist in Provence.
They're not bad in Luton. Reeta Chakrabati interviews some Tommy marchers
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He says the party should return to a centre right focus on propositions for governing for the nation not just the base and if a few more hardliners go Reform so be it, some truth in that
OT I tried Burger King's waygu burger. After its mixed reviews, to put it kindly, I nixed the rocket and mayo and added a slice of cheese. Verdict: good; better than their ordinary burgers; £11 is a lot though.
And the burger comes in a posh-looking cardboard box.
I had some wagyu sausages, as they were on offer. Quite nice beef sausages but I wouldn't pay the normal premium.
(Whatever happened to beef sausages? When I was a kid, they were almost as prominent as pork. Now you rarely see them. I suspect burgers are much more popular so all the beef offcuts go into them. Waitrose do beef & black pepper chipolatas, which I used to like, but I think they have gone skinless and in general I think they have lowered the quality of their "standard" range of sausages rather than put the price up)
Beef sausages are all over the place and in many takeaways the only option (halal, you see).
I'd agree about the drop in quality to keep the price down. I've stopped buying meat pies for that very reason.
Maybe I don't live in an ethnically diverse enough area, but I don't often see beef sausages - Waitrose for example only used to have the one item, and that was only available in chipolata. They have now added the wagyu sausages which I will get if I see them on offer. Whereas loads of different pork sausages. I am going to pop into Sainsburys today so I will have a look. I do need to start buying butchers' sausages but my local butcher's sausages are expensive but not that good. We do have a couple of specialist sausage butchers, but they are a few miles away and, as ever, I can't be arsed.
Tesco and Sainsburys used to do fantastic premium own brand sausages. They both changed their recipes (specifically, I think, of the skin) for reasons I can't remember, about 2 or 3 years ago, and are now much worse.
Morrisons are pretty good. GF too...
They sell girl friends?
For a few weeks I'm experimenting with Hello Fresh, and so far ... not bad, as one component of a mix. The obviously dodgy thing is tiny bits of lots of ingredients in sealed plastic packaging.
They don't do girlfriends, either.
I liked Hello Fresh, but a neighbour rightly pointed out the level of plastic waste was astronomical. Box made of cardboard, but everything inside was in plastic bags, even the frozen water bags to keep things cool. I'm not sure I could've lived with myself carrying that on. And I'm not sure everything that was in plastic needed to be in plastic.
My latest Hello Fresh box contains and extra sheet of paper explaining how the boxes have been reorganised, resulting in saving 2000 tonnes of plastic, and that the fresh ingredients will last a day or two longer.
I think that this is a continuous improvement thing needed, like Toyota.
One observation on your successes for the 2010-24 government. Both gay marriage and net zero were and are controversial with the base, but not with the public at large. In the old days of big tent parties, that sort of thing was the mark of a confident, successful party, able to reach out to the wider public. Now, parties don't seem capable of that.
The big tents have collapsed here, much as they have in France, Germany, Spain. America seems to have a different pathology, where parties have drifted from the centre but the strength of the system has kept two parties in place- for now, anyway.
Question is why? Failings of the old big two? Impossibility of dealing with the times we are in by anybody? A failure of society where none of us is willing to compromise on anything?
One cheery thought to finish- five or six parties who hate each other is bad enough with a PR election. It turns FPTP into a complete lottery.
There will be many reasons. But a biggie in my mind is that t'Internet tells far too many people that there are easy solutions to the problems that face us. As an extreme example, why should we look for real solutions, when we can just chuck out the foreigners?
They do a lot of chucking out right enough, only 50,000+ in hotels and rising by the day, millions unaccounted for , but hey we have managed to swap two of them with France. Stupid people and do gooders cannot grasp that you cannot just dump millions of strangers in a country in a short time and think it will all be sweetness and light. You are biased entirely and don't want to even look at the topic given your own circumstances but you having a wife from outside the UK does not mean that it is right to allow unlimited people to flood into the country. It will end in tears for sure.
I'm not saying it is right to allow unlimited people into the country, and never have. The whole situation is a mess, and lots of people (including lawyers...) are making a lot of money out of it, whilst the public suffer.
*BUT* the talk is going far too far. Massive numbers of immigrants contribute to society, and even keep our services going. Yet it's becoming that anyone who cannot trace their Britishness back for umpteen generations is the enemy. It's not about boat people; it's about all immigrants.
We also need to remember that immigrants are people too, and someone calling for them to be drowned at sea should be put adrift into a boat in the North Sea to see how they like it.
I’m really sick of this ‘immigrants keep our services going’ guff. Our services keep going due to the contribution of ALL involved in it. Your line just diminishes the efforts of non migrants.
Not to mention that immigrants use services as well.
As well as require housing, contribute to transport congestion, add to pressure on the environment etc.
Okay. You and @Taz can only use public services that are not provided by immigrants. You will have to wait for a White British bin crew to come along to have your bins emptied; if you need A&E, you will have to wait for a White British ambulance crew, And when in hospital, you can only be treated by White British doctors and nurses. You can only get petrol from a petrol station that has White British staff, and only travel on public transport that has White British staff.
That'll go well for you.
Stop being immature.
I'm an advocate of controlled and planned for migration.
That requires an acceptance that all immigrants bring pressures on services, infrastructure, housing and the environment.
So do the many Brits who choose not to contribute.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Actually a dinner held to mark the Presidential visit to meet some high honchos (other than the Prez) and funded by a Usoian media firm. So it's not clear that your interpretation fits?
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He says the party should return to a centre right focus on propositions for governing for the nation not just the base and if a few more hardliners go Reform so be it, some truth in that
If the Ellwoods of this world are listened to, the Tory party will cease to exist.
The 'centre-right focus on propositions for governing' won't get the support Sunak did in 2024. They'd probably end up with 50 seats max.
The local elections the Tories are managing to resist Reform and the Lib Dems are in areas where the Tories are proudly patriotic, and in tune with public opinion. Like in Jenrick's back yard!
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
Thanks. Re: solutions - I feel that the Tories' fate is not entirely in their own hands. They really need Labour to recover at least somewhat or the danger is that the voters will want to sweep the whole system away. And they need Reform to make mistakes.
Oppositions always have to wait for governments to f*** up and can rarely make the weather; typically they have to look credible and then it's a matter of time. The Tories problems are that they don't look credible and voters are spoiled for choice with other routes to oppose the government.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He says the party should return to a centre right focus on propositions for governing for the nation not just the base and if a few more hardliners go Reform so be it, some truth in that
If the Ellwoods of this world are listened to, the Tory party will cease to exist.
The 'centre-right focus on propositions for governing' won't get the support Sunak did in 2024. They'd probably end up with 50 seats max.
The local elections the Tories are managing to resist Reform and the Lib Dems are in areas where the Tories are proudly patriotic, and in tune with public opinion. Like in Jenrick's back yard!
Except it largely would, Reform are sweeping by elections in Essex and Kent and most of the North and Midlands and indeed Wales.
Where the Tories are holding up is in posher parts of the Home Counties like Hertfordshire and in London and in rural Scotland.
At the next GE the Tories should just focus on holding the 2024 Sunak vote, they won't win back voters Farage won even in 2024 and nor will they likely win Labour defectors to Reform since then (remember even Jenrick's Newark stayed Tory last year).
If they then remain second at the next GE and beat Reform then someone like Jenrick could win back Reform voters once Farage leaves the scene but not before
If France is the model and we get AV like their second ballot then the LDs would be the likely beneficiaries, being the centrist fiscal realist party Macron's party now is. Indeed many of Macron's PMs have also come from Les Republicains, including the current one, so you could also see a return to something like the old Tory-LD coalition maybe with Labour splitting between Starmer and New Labour loyalists and others going to Corbyn and Your Party and the Greens, the UK equivalent of Melenchon's block. Reform meanwhile would be the party of the Nationalist anti immigration right like RN with some libertarian Thatcherites too.
For the Tories, Cleverly may be the best answer for the next GE, most likely to at least hold the 24% who voted for Sunak in 2024 and who did not hate the last government. Cleverly can also point out net immigration is now falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements he and Sunak brought in, enabling him to focus on opposing Labour's tax rises and the economy
I'm planning to do an article on France next (not going to do another series for a while)
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
Thanks. Re: solutions - I feel that the Tories' fate is not entirely in their own hands. They really need Labour to recover at least somewhat or the danger is that the voters will want to sweep the whole system away. And they need Reform to make mistakes.
In terms of solutions, I mooted some thoughts upthread. It's about maximising what they can hold or win right now whilst accepting a swift return to power has gone from the equation. Staying on the pitch with mayors, councils they manage to hold or win and leveraging the proportional representation- Holyrood, Senedd, London Assembly. It will be somewhat easier to fight 2029 than 2024, they haven't got to pretend they can defend 360 seats and they can focus on the best 150 to 200. Their one advantage they have at the moment is still raising the most in donations of any party so they probably need to make good use while that lasts
Your posts are however all about election-fighting tactics and devoid of any political strategy or positioning.
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
Excellent header by Gareth. Yes, what the Cons must do above all else is retain their top 2 status. They can then 'build back better' from there. Labour in 2019 faced the same existential threat of not just losing an election badly (it happens) but falling behind the LDs (death). That is why they switched their Brexit policy from Do a Soft One to 2nd Referendum (effectively Remain). Otherwise it was gifting the LDs the entire Remain space for the GE and polling data was telling them what that might lead to - the LDs coming 2nd in seats with Labour down in 3rd. This scenario had to be taken off the table so they made the change, made it even though it threw away the redwall and locked in a big defeat to the Cons.
It worked. The defeat duly crystallised, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, Corbyn's trashed the brand, 2nd referendum? wtf were they thinking?, but the core objective was achieved, Labour got plenty of Remainer votes and finished a solid 2nd, comfortably ahead of the LDs. Mission accomplished. Still at the top table. Still the main opposition to the Conservatives. And 5 years later? Exactly. The Cons implode, Labour are BACK. Yes they were lucky, but it was only possible because of that hard-nosed piece of political pragmatism in 2019. The Cons need to work out what their equivalent of that is and do it.
If France is the model and we get AV like their second ballot then the LDs would be the likely beneficiaries, being the centrist fiscal realist party Macron's party now is. Indeed many of Macron's PMs have also come from Les Republicains, including the current one, so you could also see a return to something like the old Tory-LD coalition maybe with Labour splitting between Starmer and New Labour loyalists and others going to Corbyn and Your Party and the Greens, the UK equivalent of Melenchon's block. Reform meanwhile would be the party of the Nationalist anti immigration right like RN with some libertarian Thatcherites too.
For the Tories, Cleverly may be the best answer for the next GE, most likely to at least hold the 24% who voted for Sunak in 2024 and who did not hate the last government. Cleverly can also point out net immigration is now falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements he and Sunak brought in, enabling him to focus on opposing Labour's tax rises and the economy
Great. Just what we need. More Lib Dem’s elected. We’re screwed as it is without the WASPI-Waitrose lot near power
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He predicts a dozen MPs will defect from the Tories to Reform. That is 10% of the current total.
On the other hand he has a point- the right wing mob are actually no loss, but the reality is that since the BoJo purge of many actual conservatives, albeit "one nation Tories" from the party, they have not returned, and they are not likely to. It is kind of ironic that he is advocating a "big tent" party but one without the right. However if the Tories cannot get support within their current party, how much harder it will be as they try to attract support from beyond the current party, either from right or left?
I think reading the Ellwood piece is beginning to convince me that the road back for the Tories may not, in fact, exist.
Interesting interview on BBC News last night with a few of Tommy Robinson's flag wavers. They were asked why they chose to follow the several times convicted Tommy?
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
This is where the 'White British' shite that spread recently - including on here - is so pernicious. It's not just about Muslims; it's not just about boat people. It's about anyone who is seen as being 'different'.
The ugliness of the people on that march cannot be exaggerated. The confusion between them and the Faragists if such a confusion exists is probably a good thing. No self respecting person would want to tarnished by association with those gruesome fascists
One encounters a better class of fascist in Provence.
They're not bad in Luton. Reeta Chakrabati interviews some Tommy marchers
I think those are quite possibly people encouraged to come forward with prepared lines; that's what they do in most places. Bussed-in people saying "we are ordinary locals", whilst the media are too busy or too stupid to do homework, dig a little, and ask the difficult questions.
That would never happen with the counter demonstrators of course.
Outside of an active war zone, this is absurd and dangerous.
The Pentagon told journalists it will require them to pledge they won’t gather any information — even unclassified — that hasn’t been expressly authorized for release, and will revoke the press credentials of those who do not obey. https://x.com/ScottNover/status/1969173995128758711
Increasingly clear that this administration is trying to destroy independent journalism.
Is this the fallout from revealing the random strangers invited to the Let's Bomb Iran call and in the process embarrassing Pete Hegseth?
It goes deeper than that, I think.
The entire administration is actively trying to suppress independent journalism. That the president and several of his crew are narcissists certainly helps drive that, but the effort goes way beyond personal vanity.
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He says the party should return to a centre right focus on propositions for governing for the nation not just the base and if a few more hardliners go Reform so be it, some truth in that
If the Ellwoods of this world are listened to, the Tory party will cease to exist.
The 'centre-right focus on propositions for governing' won't get the support Sunak did in 2024. They'd probably end up with 50 seats max.
The local elections the Tories are managing to resist Reform and the Lib Dems are in areas where the Tories are proudly patriotic, and in tune with public opinion. Like in Jenrick's back yard!
Except it largely would, Reform are sweeping by elections in Essex and Kent and most of the North and Midlands and indeed Wales.
Where the Tories are holding up is in posher parts of the Home Counties like Hertfordshire and in London and in rural Scotland.
At the next GE the Tories should just focus on holding the 2024 Sunak vote, they won't win back voters Farage won even in 2024 and nor will they likely win Labour defectors to Reform since then (remember even Jenrick's Newark stayed Tory last year).
If they then remain second at the next GE and beat Reform then someone like Jenrick could win back Reform voters once Farage leaves the scene but not before
If we lookat the May locals elections, the places they did best were
Cambridge and Peterborough mayoralty region Buckinghamshire where they won the popular vote Hertfordshire where they tied the popular vote with LDs in first Wiltshire where they were fractionally behind LDs and well clear of Reform Leicestershire where they ran Reform fairly close in the popular vote Northumberland where they won most wards and were close on popular vote
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
An ethni-nationalist, whatever that means, according to the ‘you’re all racist’ brigade
The stat that drives me mad, most of all, is the percentage of really desirable social housing, in central London, being given to people born overseas
It is an unconscionable betrayal of native Brits. They own that precious, expensive housing stock. It belongs to all of us. Yet we give it to foreigners
And it is happening, I am told, because the entire system is corrupt - and being gamed against native Brits. A Knappers Gazette editor told me he spent months researching this
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
Excellent header by Gareth. Yes, what the Cons must do above all else is retain their top 2 status. They can then 'build back better' from there. Labour in 2019 faced the same existential threat of not just losing an election badly (it happens) but falling behind the LDs (death). That is why they switched their Brexit policy from Do a Soft One to 2nd Referendum (effectively Remain). Otherwise it was gifting the LDs the entire Remain space for the GE and polling data was telling them what that might lead to - the LDs coming 2nd in seats with Labour down in 3rd. This scenario had to be taken off the table so they made the change, made it even though it threw away the redwall and locked in a big defeat to the Cons.
It worked. The defeat duly crystallised, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, Corbyn's trashed the brand, 2nd referendum? wtf were they thinking?, but the core objective was achieved, Labour got plenty of Remainer votes and finished a solid 2nd, comfortably ahead of the LDs. Mission accomplished. Still at the top table. Still the main opposition to the Conservatives. And 5 years later? Exactly. The Cons implode, Labour are BACK. Yes they were lucky, but it was only possible because of that hard-nosed piece of political pragmatism in 2019. The Cons need to work out what their equivalent of that is and do it.
I've said for a long time that the Tories won't get a hearing until they accept Brexit was a mistake and return to a more pro-EU stance. It's where the voters are, and puts clear water between them and Reform without preventing them beating the right wing drum on other issues.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He predicts a dozen MPs will defect from the Tories to Reform. That is 10% of the current total.
On the other hand he has a point- the right wing mob are actually no loss, but the reality is that since the BoJo purge of many actual conservatives, albeit "one nation Tories" from the party, they have not returned, and they are not likely to. It is kind of ironic that he is advocating a "big tent" party but one without the right. However if the Tories cannot get support within their current party, how much harder it will be as they try to attract support from beyond the current party, either from right or left?
I think reading the Ellwood piece is beginning to convince me that the road back for the Tories may not, in fact, exist.
The Tories were still second at the last general election, their task at the next election is to hold that position therefore and for which they don't need to attract support beyond their 2024 vote.
They will then hope that Reform lose the next general election and the Tories stay just ahead of them on seats. A Reform victory and majority is worse for the Tories now than a Labour win or Labour getting most seats in a hung parliament as a Reform win is existential for the party and means their rump is likely taken over by Reform soon enough with a few going LD, certainly unless we went to PR or AV. Whereas if Labour win but the Tories are second the Tories live to fight another day, better still if a hung parliament.
If Reform lose the next general election, then if Farage resigns the Tories might be able to start to win back voters they lost to Reform even in 2024, maybe under Jenrick but not before
Excellent header by Gareth. Yes, what the Cons must do above all else is retain their top 2 status. They can then 'build back better' from there. Labour in 2019 faced the same existential threat of not just losing an election badly (it happens) but falling behind the LDs (death). That is why they switched their Brexit policy from Do a Soft One to 2nd Referendum (effectively Remain). Otherwise it was gifting the LDs the entire Remain space for the GE and polling data was telling them what that might lead to - the LDs coming 2nd in seats with Labour down in 3rd. This scenario had to be taken off the table so they made the change, made it even though it threw away the redwall and locked in a big defeat to the Cons.
It worked. The defeat duly crystallised, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, Corbyn's trashed the brand, 2nd referendum? wtf were they thinking?, but the core objective was achieved, Labour got plenty of Remainer votes and finished a solid 2nd, comfortably ahead of the LDs. Mission accomplished. Still at the top table. Still the main opposition to the Conservatives. And 5 years later? Exactly. The Cons implode, Labour are BACK. Yes they were lucky, but it was only possible because of that hard-nosed piece of political pragmatism in 2019. The Cons need to work out what their equivalent of that is and do it.
I've said for a long time that the Tories won't get a hearing until they accept Brexit was a mistake and return to a more pro-EU stance. It's where the voters are, and puts clear water between them and Reform without preventing them beating the right wing drum on other issues.
It’s an interesting take but it’s psychologically impossible
Brexit is woven into the genes of the Tory party. They can’t renounce it any more than a dog can change its breed
American tech companies investing in the UK which should create a small number of highly paid jobs in geographically concentrated areas. All feels a bit like the 1980s and papering over the cracks. Fraser's a bit of a Blairite. Not sure he really understands tech or economics but easily persuaded by money.
And how successful can we be in tech with the higher electricity prices on the planet?
Excellent header by Gareth. Yes, what the Cons must do above all else is retain their top 2 status. They can then 'build back better' from there. Labour in 2019 faced the same existential threat of not just losing an election badly (it happens) but falling behind the LDs (death). That is why they switched their Brexit policy from Do a Soft One to 2nd Referendum (effectively Remain). Otherwise it was gifting the LDs the entire Remain space for the GE and polling data was telling them what that might lead to - the LDs coming 2nd in seats with Labour down in 3rd. This scenario had to be taken off the table so they made the change, made it even though it threw away the redwall and locked in a big defeat to the Cons.
It worked. The defeat duly crystallised, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, Corbyn's trashed the brand, 2nd referendum? wtf were they thinking?, but the core objective was achieved, Labour got plenty of Remainer votes and finished a solid 2nd, comfortably ahead of the LDs. Mission accomplished. Still at the top table. Still the main opposition to the Conservatives. And 5 years later? Exactly. The Cons implode, Labour are BACK. Yes they were lucky, but it was only possible because of that hard-nosed piece of political pragmatism in 2019. The Cons need to work out what their equivalent of that is and do it.
I've said for a long time that the Tories won't get a hearing until they accept Brexit was a mistake and return to a more pro-EU stance. It's where the voters are, and puts clear water between them and Reform without preventing them beating the right wing drum on other issues.
Even now at least 60% of Tory voters backed Leave and that is without 2019 Tory Leave voters who have gone Reform.
What you are suggesting is the Tories become Orange Book LDs, which would get them 10% of the vote and 10-20 MPs at most in Surrey, rural Scotland and West London. After all Davey is basically an Orange Book LD anyway so why would LDs now vote Tory for the same thing? Labour and Green voters wouldn't vote for that either as they are left of centre economically, so a centre right pro EU party still has no appeal
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
You should join the Conservative Party and offer your views. AFAIK Conservative policies are banned until close to 2029 which is leaving a vacuum for Nigel to fill.
Or, if I am mistaken, and the Conservatives do have policies, why are they so poor in highlighting them.
And your admiration for Boris ('newly hunky') has taken a oddly bromance turn.
It isn't possible to highlight policies really well without either having unreal ones which are demolished by the fiscal realities, or by having significantly realistic ones which involve economic and fiscal realities parties have spend decades trying not to tell us.
(This morning on R4 Today a presenter was trying to demolish an LD stunt about police officers having a desk in the library on financial grounds. It was alleged to cost £47 million - not even a footnote to a rounding error).
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
Far from being unfashionable, Reform-ism iis all the rage, and many kinds of people are susceptible to that, from all walks of life.
On a different note, his vetsion of In Our Time has gone from Rado 4, which is another gloomy development for any more advanced discussion on BBC TV or radio. His version of Start The Week was quite different, too.
If France is the model and we get AV like their second ballot then the LDs would be the likely beneficiaries, being the centrist fiscal realist party Macron's party now is. Indeed many of Macron's PMs have also come from Les Republicains, including the current one, so you could also see a return to something like the old Tory-LD coalition maybe with Labour splitting between Starmer and New Labour loyalists and others going to Corbyn and Your Party and the Greens, the UK equivalent of Melenchon's block. Reform meanwhile would be the party of the Nationalist anti immigration right like RN with some libertarian Thatcherites too.
For the Tories, Cleverly may be the best answer for the next GE, most likely to at least hold the 24% who voted for Sunak in 2024 and who did not hate the last government. Cleverly can also point out net immigration is now falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements he and Sunak brought in, enabling him to focus on opposing Labour's tax rises and the economy
Ok. You have been making a clearly tactical case for Cleverly to take over after the inevitable debacle next spring, but actually what is the pitch that he can make that brings the Tories back into the frame? Survival is only the first stage of the Tories hierarchy of needs, they also need to acquire a distinctive and positive pitch to the voters and the two are linked together. Michael Howard was able to create a strategy that steadied the ship and after another Parliament generated sufficient momentum to get David Cameron into number 10. Howard has a first class brain and a streak of steel- "something of the night"- but I am not convinced that James Cleverly has either of these things. Though, given the very small leadership pool in the Conservative Parliamentary party, I could see that he might be the best you have. In that case its a two parliament recovery program, with the ultimate victory coming under a leader not yet in the House of Commons.
Thoughts?
(at least Kemi is not as nasty or dim as IDS though)
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He predicts a dozen MPs will defect from the Tories to Reform. That is 10% of the current total.
On the other hand he has a point- the right wing mob are actually no loss, but the reality is that since the BoJo purge of many actual conservatives, albeit "one nation Tories" from the party, they have not returned, and they are not likely to. It is kind of ironic that he is advocating a "big tent" party but one without the right. However if the Tories cannot get support within their current party, how much harder it will be as they try to attract support from beyond the current party, either from right or left?
I think reading the Ellwood piece is beginning to convince me that the road back for the Tories may not, in fact, exist.
The Tories were still second at the last general election, their task at the next election is to hold that position therefore and for which they don't need to attract support beyond their 2024 vote.
They will then hope that Reform lose the next general election and the Tories stay just ahead of them on seats. A Reform victory and majority is worse for the Tories now than a Labour win or Labour getting most seats in a hung parliament as a Reform win is existential for the party and means their rump is likely taken over by Reform soon enough with a few going LD, certainly unless we went to PR or AV. Whereas if Labour win but the Tories are second the Tories live to fight another day, better still if a hung parliament.
If Reform lose the next general election, then if Farage resigns the Tories might be able to start to win back voters they lost to Reform even in 2024, maybe under Jenrick but not before
A surprisingly large proportion of those 2024 voters won't be on the electoral register come 2029
I agree with the opinions here that the Tories’ fate is largely out of their hands. I am not convinced that any grand strategy exists to bring them back to relevance, other than to focus on their bread and butter rhetoric (low tax, small state, sound money - yes, no laughing at the back given recent experience with the Tories in government!) and hope that Labour manage to neutralise the Reform threat or Reform otherwise implode. That would likely lead to a modest recovery and the chance to rebuild, but it might take more than one election.
Otherwise, and if Reform do overtake them, I think in all likelihood the Party will end up subsumed in some Reform alliance arrangement eventually, similar to what happened in Canada. The Tory Party isn’t designed to be some third party force in British politics, largely talking to a dwindling core. It is designed to win and retain power. If leading Tories eventually see the only way of retaining and regaining power and influence as a Reform tie in, they will take it, though I think it would take dropping to say 50 or so seats for them to smell the coffee.
I've had a chance to read the header properly with a coffee. Very thought provoking.
I wonder how long it will be before Brexit is a dead horse? BoJo & Co had their chance and blew it, not even putting in place for example the required customs inspections - so any food at all could get in, whether fit or not. How long before we all are looking "forward, not back." Who said that?
I think this is perhaps contentious, but it is also ambiguous:
Protestantism started out as the religion of the urban elite, while the periphery clung to their traditional Catholicism.
On the one side, "urban" was where people could write and publish. On the other hand, there were movements in the countryside, and Protestant landowners offering havens. And there were also Reformers and Separatists. There were also 'lower class' movements I think. But it also changed over time.
That Tobias Elwood article in the Times is an excellent insight into how and why the Tories are fucked. But not in the way he’d like
He presents zero solutions. He has no clue. It’s just “let the right defect to Reform” and then somehow the Tories will return because… crickets. His prescriptions are as vacuous as Starmer’s
“National renewal”. “We need a consensus”. I kept waiting for “smash the gangs”
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
Far from being unfashionable, Reform-ism iis all the rage, and many people are susceptible.
On a different topic, his vetsion of In Our Time has gone from Rado 4, which is another gloomy development for any more advanced discussion on BBC TV or radio, similarly to when he left Start The Week.
There are people capable of taking on the In Our Time role in due course. Jonathan Freedland, Amol Rajan, Rory Stewart could all have a go.
As to Lord Bragg's question; I live in north Cumberland where he comes from and where there are fewer people from other countries than most places. The ones I know (origins: Congo, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, France, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Nigeria, Turkey) are all in working families and work in: factories, agriculture, social care, NHS, driving.
Farmers and factories value them for their work ethic. Until recently social care was 100% staffed in the area from locals, but in the end the institutions couldn't cope without people from abroad. Farmers often complain they can't get local workers.
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
Far from being unfashionable, Reform-ism iis all the rage, and many people are susceptible.
On a different topic, his vetsion of In Our Time has gone from Rado 4, which is another gloomy development for any more advanced discussion on BBC TV or radio, similarly to when he left Start The Week.
There are people capable of taking on the In Our Time role in due course. Jonathan Freedland, Amol Rajan, Rory Stewart could all have a go.
As to Lord Bragg's question; I live in north Cumberland where he comes from and where there are fewer people from other countries than most places. The ones I know (origins: Congo, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, France, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Nigeria, Turkey) are all in working families and work in: factories, agriculture, social care, NHS, driving.
Farmers and factories value them for their work ethic. Until recently social care was 100% staffed in the area from locals, but in the end the institutions couldn't cope without people from abroad. Farmers often complain they can't get local workers.
Three fucking tedious centrist Dads. But of course
If the BBC really wants to renew itself it should get a radical right wing presenter. White working class. No nonsense. Frighten the horses. Try it
Newsom is too coastal and too California, the Democrats best bet to win back Middle America and the rustbelt from that lot is Buttigieg, an ex Mayor from Indiana. Shapiro from PA would be better too and would Beshear from Kentucky
That Tobias Elwood article in the Times is an excellent insight into how and why the Tories are fucked. But not in the way he’d like
He presents zero solutions. He has no clue. It’s just “let the right defect to Reform” and then somehow the Tories will return because… crickets. His prescriptions are as vacuous as Starmer’s
“National renewal”. “We need a consensus”. I kept waiting for “smash the gangs”
They are doomed
I am sure that for now this is true. Doomed. The harder question is by what means and by what sort of implementation in government is the Reform option (carefully unstated and unspecified in any difficult area whatsoever) going to be undooming us.
'Zero solutions' and 'has no clue' has wide application.
Morning all. The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years. They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on. For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on. Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
I agree completely - Gareth's thread was good as ever but a bit thin on solutions.
The potential glittering prize is (I think) the London Mayoralty, with (I think) newly hunky Boris. He clearly still harbours ambitions, and he's not getting the leadership back just now. Reform seem to be nowhere, without an obvious candidate, and there aren't many Tories who could potentially get Reform voters back onside, and appeal to floating voters who remember London being better when he ran it. Brexit is a big weakness in London, but his opposite weaknesses on immigration and being a big sponger are less salient in London.
As well as finding elections that they can win, the Tories also need to find issues where they can win.
The economy is one. Not surprised Kemi keeps going on the economy (though it was ill-judged when she had Rayner to go on). Fiscal competence is (surprisingly) a Tory strength.
Law and Order they should contest Reform for. Come up with some clever policies. They should align themselves with the 'crush crime' initiative though that is nonpolitical so would need careful handling.
They also need to be absolutely united around some core values, even if that means losing some people.
The big, not unachievable imo goal, is to add to the seat count next election, become a Reform coalition partner but get most of the Tory agenda through, and then effect a backward takeover of Reform.
It was interesting, and not much commented on here, that last week there was a meeting of Tory and Reform grandees in a posh restaurant including with Boris, Truss and Farage
All was going swimmingly until Boris started to justify his Premiership when it got rather heated
However, as straws in the wind what were senior politicians doing meeting together, if not planning some future rapprochement and in time for the next GE ?
Any coming together would change the political narrative completely
Do you have a link? I didn't know about this. I wonder if Danny Kruger's surprise defection could be tactical and a part of this?
Farage didnt make a big secret of the fact he saw a reverse takeover of the Tory party when he returned last June. Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Farage himself in the past has said he is a Tory really, just an uber Thatcherite and Nationalist one.
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
Did you see the Tobias Ellwood Thunderer piece in the Times this week? Very revealing of the wet mindset
He predicts a dozen MPs will defect from the Tories to Reform. That is 10% of the current total.
On the other hand he has a point- the right wing mob are actually no loss, but the reality is that since the BoJo purge of many actual conservatives, albeit "one nation Tories" from the party, they have not returned, and they are not likely to. It is kind of ironic that he is advocating a "big tent" party but one without the right. However if the Tories cannot get support within their current party, how much harder it will be as they try to attract support from beyond the current party, either from right or left?
I think reading the Ellwood piece is beginning to convince me that the road back for the Tories may not, in fact, exist.
The Tories were still second at the last general election, their task at the next election is to hold that position therefore and for which they don't need to attract support beyond their 2024 vote.
They will then hope that Reform lose the next general election and the Tories stay just ahead of them on seats. A Reform victory and majority is worse for the Tories now than a Labour win or Labour getting most seats in a hung parliament as a Reform win is existential for the party and means their rump is likely taken over by Reform soon enough with a few going LD, certainly unless we went to PR or AV. Whereas if Labour win but the Tories are second the Tories live to fight another day, better still if a hung parliament.
If Reform lose the next general election, then if Farage resigns the Tories might be able to start to win back voters they lost to Reform even in 2024, maybe under Jenrick but not before
A surprisingly large proportion of those 2024 voters won't be on the electoral register come 2029
The vast majority will but if they mostly go Reform and the Tories fail to win mass defections from the LDs on a centre right pro EU platform then they really will go extinct
Comments
Immigrants don't 'steal jobs', nor do they keep services going, they're simply people and jobs scale with the number of people that we have.
We could import 70 million working age people over the next decade and we would not have 70 million working age unemployed people as a result because of all jobs being filled already, they'd be working in new jobs created due to the extra demand.
Ditto if we have job vacancies nationwide then importing people does not fill those vacancies, net, since it creates new demand and that new demand needs filling with new jobs.
Unemployment is caused by wages being too high for the jobs, not a surplus of people.
Vacancies (net) are caused by wages being too low for the jobs, not a deficit of people.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/16619803/filing-history
(look at the first PDF)
It's very likely to be between Reform and Con next GE, but there is no way that I would tactically vote Con as it is pretty nailed on that Con would support a minority Farage government, or formally merge.
At the moment of course no need for him to accept such an offer as he’s locked on for a majority anyway. But who knows, if Jenrick pulls the tories up a bit and a new Labour leader consolidates the left and brings a few Red Reformers home.
The Pentagon told journalists it will require them to pledge they won’t gather any information — even unclassified — that hasn’t been expressly authorized for release, and will revoke the press credentials of those who do not obey.
https://x.com/ScottNover/status/1969173995128758711
Increasingly clear that this administration is trying to destroy independent journalism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g9006l6z6o
She's consulting libel lawyers.
Carter Ruck would be hilarious.
In Bracknell, it's obviously the Lib Dems who are best placed. You just need a bar chart which represents the data more accurately.
I think there's a parallel between Lab and the Cons - neither are being what they want to be. That is, Sir Keir does not have the courage of his own convictions, and won't fight on his own ground which at the moment should be Workers' Rights and Renters' Rights - every day. Plus stamping on Farage ("where did the money come from?". "why did you deceive Congress?") whilst waling past. At present he is mainstreaming Reform more than they deserve.
And the Tories are still flailing around in the dustbin of history. They haven't looked in the mirror at what they have become, and not starting from "here" they have no roadmap to get to where they want to be.
The Tories might actually fade away - they seem to have no energy or passionate support, so anyone not on board with Reform will probably just retire, maybe a handful defecting elsewhere.
For the Tories, Cleverly may be the best answer for the next GE, most likely to at least hold the 24% who voted for Sunak in 2024 and who did not hate the last government. Cleverly can also point out net immigration is now falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements he and Sunak brought in, enabling him to focus on opposing Labour's tax rises and the economy
https://conservativehome.com/2025/08/07/the-return-of-boris-tory-voters-are-looking-back-to-the-future/
Its not Britain they want to Reform, its Conservatism. Reform are just Teresa Gorman, Teddy Taylor, Bill Cash etc
Tories if the 'bastards' had won out
Both Tory (now Reform) and Labour tropes about the Lib Dems are based on deductive thinking. They assume the party and its adherents are a certain way, then apply a circular logic to anything they say. And a lot of it is projection.
Betting PostF1: I'll post the ramble shortly (or in an hour if I have to go first) but I've backed Hamilton each way in qualifying at 12. Odds against but credible.
Far better would be to keep to 2 child benefit cap and fund increased child benefit for most parents instead
So it is old-fashioned hard left and Gaza jihadists unencumbered by democracy vs "new left" and something more collective
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/17/tory-state-visit-reception-boris-johnson-liz-truss-trump/
Reform if it does overtake the Tories on votes and seats at the next GE would basically become the new Thatcherite and British Nationalist party, purged of the 'wet' One Nation and liberal wing of the Tories. If the Conservative party got so few seats it ultimately went out of business or had its rump taken over by Reform many in the One Nation wing would go LD
It will be somewhat easier to fight 2029 than 2024, they haven't got to pretend they can defend 360 seats and they can focus on the best 150 to 200.
Their one advantage they have at the moment is still raising the most in donations of any party so they probably need to make good use while that lasts
The BBC: made for idiots, by idiots.
I think that this is a continuous improvement thing needed, like Toyota.
Still, any article that implies that BoJo is a grandee, not a disgraced has-been, is of very finite value.
The 'centre-right focus on propositions for governing' won't get the support Sunak did in 2024. They'd probably end up with 50 seats max.
The local elections the Tories are managing to resist Reform and the Lib Dems are in areas where the Tories are proudly patriotic, and in tune with public opinion. Like in Jenrick's back yard!
Where the Tories are holding up is in posher parts of the Home Counties like Hertfordshire and in London and in rural Scotland.
At the next GE the Tories should just focus on holding the 2024 Sunak vote, they won't win back voters Farage won even in 2024 and nor will they likely win Labour defectors to Reform since then (remember even Jenrick's Newark stayed Tory last year).
If they then remain second at the next GE and beat Reform then someone like Jenrick could win back Reform voters once Farage leaves the scene but not before
👏 @GarethoftheVale2
“This is completely unfashionable, but why should people come here and get benefits that several generations of my family, who lived in terraced houses, have worked for and been in armies for? It’s a complicated problem that has to be addressed without fear or favour. We need to regulate it.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/20/melvyn-bragg-labour-migration-interview/
I guess that makes him a “white supremacist”
It worked. The defeat duly crystallised, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, Corbyn's trashed the brand, 2nd referendum? wtf were they thinking?, but the core objective was achieved, Labour got plenty of Remainer votes and finished a solid 2nd, comfortably ahead of the LDs. Mission accomplished. Still at the top table. Still the main opposition to the Conservatives. And 5 years later? Exactly. The Cons implode, Labour are BACK. Yes they were lucky, but it was only possible because of that hard-nosed piece of political pragmatism in 2019. The Cons need to work out what their equivalent of that is and do it.
Ask these morons what a woman is
On the other hand he has a point- the right wing mob are actually no loss, but the reality is that since the BoJo purge of many actual conservatives, albeit "one nation Tories" from the party, they have not returned, and they are not likely to. It is kind of ironic that he is advocating a "big tent" party but one without the right. However if the Tories cannot get support within their current party, how much harder it will be as they try to attract support from beyond the current party, either from right or left?
I think reading the Ellwood piece is beginning to convince me that the road back for the Tories may not, in fact, exist.
The entire administration is actively trying to suppress independent journalism.
That the president and several of his crew are narcissists certainly helps drive that, but the effort goes way beyond personal vanity.
Cambridge and Peterborough mayoralty region
Buckinghamshire where they won the popular vote
Hertfordshire where they tied the popular vote with LDs in first
Wiltshire where they were fractionally behind LDs and well clear of Reform
Leicestershire where they ran Reform fairly close in the popular vote
Northumberland where they won most wards and were close on popular vote
It is an unconscionable betrayal of native Brits. They own that precious, expensive housing stock. It belongs to all of us. Yet we give it to foreigners
And it is happening, I am told, because the entire system is corrupt - and being gamed against native Brits. A Knappers Gazette editor told me he spent months researching this
They will then hope that Reform lose the next general election and the Tories stay just ahead of them on seats. A Reform victory and majority is worse for the Tories now than a Labour win or Labour getting most seats in a hung parliament as a Reform win is existential for the party and means their rump is likely taken over by Reform soon enough with a few going LD, certainly unless we went to PR or AV. Whereas if Labour win but the Tories are second the Tories live to fight another day, better still if a hung parliament.
If Reform lose the next general election, then if Farage resigns the Tories might be able to start to win back voters they lost to Reform even in 2024, maybe under Jenrick but not before
Brexit is woven into the genes of the Tory party. They can’t renounce it any more than a dog can change its breed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisP7NOuec4
American tech companies investing in the UK which should create a small number of highly paid jobs in geographically concentrated areas. All feels a bit like the 1980s and papering over the cracks. Fraser's a bit of a Blairite. Not sure he really understands tech or economics but easily persuaded by money.
And how successful can we be in tech with the higher electricity prices on the planet?
What you are suggesting is the Tories become Orange Book LDs, which would get them 10% of the vote and 10-20 MPs at most in Surrey, rural Scotland and West London. After all Davey is basically an Orange Book LD anyway so why would LDs now vote Tory for the same thing? Labour and Green voters wouldn't vote for that either as they are left of centre economically, so a centre right pro EU party still has no appeal
(This morning on R4 Today a presenter was trying to demolish an LD stunt about police officers having a desk in the library on financial grounds. It was alleged to cost £47 million - not even a footnote to a rounding error).
On a different note, his vetsion of In Our Time has gone from Rado 4, which is another gloomy development for any more advanced discussion on BBC TV or radio. His version of Start The Week was quite different, too.
Thoughts?
(at least Kemi is not as nasty or dim as IDS though)
Otherwise, and if Reform do overtake them, I think in all likelihood the Party will end up subsumed in some Reform alliance arrangement eventually, similar to what happened in Canada. The Tory Party isn’t designed to be some third party force in British politics, largely talking to a dwindling core. It is designed to win and retain power. If leading Tories eventually see the only way of retaining and regaining power and influence as a Reform tie in, they will take it, though I think it would take dropping to say 50 or so seats for them to smell the coffee.
I wonder how long it will be before Brexit is a dead horse? BoJo & Co had their chance and blew it, not even putting in place for example the required customs inspections - so any food at all could get in, whether fit or not. How long before we all are looking "forward, not back." Who said that?
I think this is perhaps contentious, but it is also ambiguous:
Protestantism started out as the religion of the urban elite, while the periphery clung to their traditional Catholicism.
On the one side, "urban" was where people could write and publish. On the other hand, there were movements in the countryside, and Protestant landowners offering havens. And there were also Reformers and Separatists. There were also 'lower class' movements I think. But it also changed over time.
Democratic Presidential Polling:
Newsom: 37%
Harris: 21%
Buttigieg: 12%
AOC: 11%
Walz: 4%
Booker: 3%
Beshear: 3%
Shapiro: 2%
AtlasIntel / Sept 16, 2025
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1969169230802084080
Thank you for your attention in this matter.
He presents zero solutions. He has no clue. It’s just “let the right defect to Reform” and then somehow the Tories will return because… crickets. His prescriptions are as vacuous as Starmer’s
“National renewal”. “We need a consensus”. I kept waiting for “smash the gangs”
They are doomed
As to Lord Bragg's question; I live in north Cumberland where he comes from and where there are fewer people from other countries than most places. The ones I know (origins: Congo, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, France, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Nigeria, Turkey) are all in working families and work in: factories, agriculture, social care, NHS, driving.
Farmers and factories value them for their work ethic. Until recently social care was 100% staffed in the area from locals, but in the end the institutions couldn't cope without people from abroad. Farmers often complain they can't get local workers.
If the BBC really wants to renew itself it should get a radical right wing presenter. White working class. No nonsense. Frighten the horses. Try it
'Zero solutions' and 'has no clue' has wide application.