The challenge for the Conservatives – politicalbetting.com
The challenge for the Conservatives – politicalbetting.com
The Conservative party is the oldest and most successful party in UK history. The 2024 election was the worst ever in its long history (the previous worst in 1906, they still held on to 156 seats)
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But overall threads like this are pb at its best.
Thank goodness, seems Labour may well axe the two child benefit cap.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy917g0420o
With our ballooning surplus and endlessly overflowing national coffers, I'm ever so grateful they've found a way to finally spend some of our excess cash.
A student "overstayer" who repeatedly raped a 12-year-old girl after arranging for taxis to bring her to his flat late at night has been jailed.
Wisal Ahmad, 30, had been studying in Scotland, but after running out of funds he ended up working in Bradford where he befriended the girl on social media, a court heard.
One observation on your successes for the 2010-24 government. Both gay marriage and net zero were and are controversial with the base, but not with the public at large. In the old days of big tent parties, that sort of thing was the mark of a confident, successful party, able to reach out to the wider public. Now, parties don't seem capable of that.
The big tents have collapsed here, much as they have in France, Germany, Spain. America seems to have a different pathology, where parties have drifted from the centre but the strength of the system has kept two parties in place- for now, anyway.
Question is why? Failings of the old big two? Impossibility of dealing with the times we are in by anybody? A failure of society where none of us is willing to compromise on anything?
One cheery thought to finish- five or six parties who hate each other is bad enough with a PR election. It turns FPTP into a complete lottery.
Labour want to spend £3.5 billion on this policy and incredibly some think a betting tax will pay for it
Reeves faces upto £40 billion problem so now that becomes £43.5 billion and the betting tax being one source of closing the gap effectively closes nothing
When will labour understand that you cannot continue to spending and taxing and that difficult decisions have to be made and that includes not adding more to the spend just because it's popular with the left but ironically not popular with the public
The bond rates continue to rise and Reeves nightmare must be that she is buried in a Truss style crisis
Banning foreign money in British politics is now an urgent priority.
https://news.sky.com/story/lib-dems-toughen-up-immigration-rhetoric-as-sir-ed-davey-pledges-to-stop-the-boats-13433984
Brexit has been a triple whammy. Firstly, a classic case of egregious over-selling followed by failure, or under-delivery, according to view. If you reprise the leave campaign it isn’t unreasonable to have expected a dramatic reduction in immigration and a super-funded health service free of waiting lists. In both cases precisely the opposite has happened.
Secondly, it took the government’s eye off of every other ball for the best part of five years, while the Tories played out their internal divisions across the media as pitiful political psychodrama. Tories still misunderstand that the appeal of “get Brexit done” wasn’t, mostly, because people were itching for Brexit, but that they wanted Brexit “done with”, expecting the government to turn its attention to all the other stuff after. Did that happen? No - the Tories under Johnson and Truss just moved to other non-Brexit psychodramas and internal divisions, and never got back to the day job.
Thirdly, Brexit - or rather the way in which it was done - drove away from the Conservative ‘coalition’ a bunch of political talent and a slice of political support, pulling the party to the right at just the moment when a rival was setting out its stall on the same ground, and hence now they find themselves trapped without a solid base.
The one element missing from the lead is the demographic one - that a decade of pandering to economically inactive pensioners has left the Tories with pitifully low levels of support amongst those in work, and with a support base that is moving off the electoral register at three to four times the rate for voters of the other parties.
It is hard to see any prospect of Tory recovery until there has been a complete turnover of political generation, with new young leadership untainted by the failures of the past, and with something to say to younger folk (which in a Tory context means those aged below 60). Those Tory MPs working with Shapps to recover their seats need to come to terms with the fact that the party doesn’t need them, any more. Indeed the Tories best chance is for Reform to transform into a vehicle for older failed-once Tory retreads while they move on to pastures new. Right now there is very little sign coming out of the party that they’re even at first base in terms of either the required thinking or the required change.
They said they were just ordinary working people who thought it was time that the English reclaimed their country. They were publicans and said Tommy represented the working class. When they were asked what they meant by 'The English' they preferred not to say
It is a mistake the left are making, and continue to make, that the 150,000 demonstrators are far right and as long as the left continue this the stronger Reform will grow
So Labour MPs will instead ignore mathematics, economics, and basic reason to try and splurge cash we don't have on things we don't need, rather than trying to balance the books and actual govern in the national interest.
I find it depressing that you think nobody can have a better approach to immigration than Nigel Farage. As if it’s a topic only he is allowed to talk about. It’s like saying only Putin can opine on who should run the Donbas.
Ed’s “But we've got thought-through policies about how you would do that in a humane way, unlike people like Farage and the Conservatives” is where a lot of voters in this country are - not that you’d know that from media that presents the entire country as roiling xenophobes.
Makes sense- one of the pillars of old style conservatism is doing without yourself so your offspring can benefit from the savings. See also the dread of government borrowing. It was only under the pressure of Farage etc, and under Truss and Sunak, that the party went wobbly.
I’m going to create a hashtag for future PB usage, so we can track the phenomenon. #FRITLF
Politics has a way of producing the worst possible outcomes.
Second, it shows that the authorities are incapable of doing anything about those who don't leave.
And thirdly, another example of horrific criminality perpetrated by someone who shouldn't even be here.
I do think it's an excitingly creative idea that providing children with free healthcare and education, plus benefits for the first two, somehow means someone opposes the concept of needing children.
Avoid the costs of childcare, education, maternity pay, etc. And avoids ending up with a tranche of adults who are either incapable or unwilling to contribute to society.
On the other hand, babies are cute.
https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/10/26/the-publics-surprising-choice-of-tax-increase-and-why-we-should-ignore-it/
Some falsehoods are so deeply embedded in the psyche that they are almost impossible to dismantle. Especially when cynical politicians and breathless commentators hype them up.
In the good old days, the wiser older members of the pack would have taken such people to one side, warned them about lying and kicked them out into the snow for a repeat offence. Now we elevate them.
If that is being ignored, then what do they want?
And by the way Sir Trevor Phillips warned about this attitude, and he is an expert on the subject being the former head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission and a member of the labour party
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/puberty-blocker-drug-firm-donated-cash-to-lib-dems-cf3x77nh3
The march was about Tommy Robinson. His message got amplified. If you were there and disagreed with him, then your voice was not heard. His was. Everyone there was amplifying *his* message of hate.
Don't defend Tommy Robinson. Don't defend the shits who support him.
Danny Kruger's defection will prove to be highly significant. A respected and academic Tory, thought to be loyal to the party.
I've voted Cons twice in my life but like you will regret it's passing and the country will be massively worse off should it fall.
The best to hope for may be a merger of some sort (perhaps preceded by a coalition and hopefully without Farage in the picture) between Reform and the Conservatives, with the former moderating Reform's naivety and inexperience.
Edit: if my last paragraph was to come to pass Jenrick may emerge as a key player.
"Tens of thousands. Tens of thousands" = Nearly a million
"Stop the boats. Stop the boats." = More people arriving on boats.
The reason the Conservative party is dying politically is that it cannot see that this is not Conservatism.
I think the best "hope" for the Tories is for Labour turn in on each other over the public finances. The Tories need to present themselves as the only party that can take the tough decisions.
On our state broadcaster this am it’s reported that ‘over a thousand people arrived by boats in the Channel yesterday. So far three people have been returned on flights to France on the governments one in, one out deal.’
I cannot believe that conjunction is not the result of a deliberate decision.
*BUT* the talk is going far too far. Massive numbers of immigrants contribute to society, and even keep our services going. Yet it's becoming that anyone who cannot trace their Britishness back for umpteen generations is the enemy. It's not about boat people; it's about all immigrants.
We also need to remember that immigrants are people too, and someone calling for them to be drowned at sea should be put adrift into a boat in the North Sea to see how they like it.
He described a 14 year old girl who had been banned from school for wearing a Union Jack uniform as though she was Mother Theresa. This Vestal Virgin epitomising the march was Trevor's take from the afternoon.
Personally, I'm probably going to leave it. The Ladbrokes odds, non-boosted, are down to 4 for the win (3 for pole).
Still odds against it'll come off, but we'll see.
Did the protestors walk away when they heard that? No.
On other matters I was listening to an interview with a GB athlete who won silver in the women’s 200m last night. I was quite surprised at how incredibly articulate and interesting she was. Then about ten mins later reading up on sports news she appeared, a Cambridge graduate, good looking, fun personality too, Amy Hunt looks like she’s going to be a star.
https://unherd.com/newsroom/trumps-tech-deal-will-subordinate-uk-to-america/
As well as require housing, contribute to transport congestion, add to pressure on the environment etc.
An even worse possible outcome.
I would regard myself as a typical LD and even I can say there is a huge economic and socio-cultural issue which is far more than just "the boats" but let's deal with the boats. We need to get the backlog of asylum cases cleared and we need to look at a process which seems to allow endless rights of appeal for what seem to be many to be spurious reasons.
I've never had a problem with the concept of a points-based immigration system and nor do I have an issue (apart from the resources) of finding and where appropriate deporting anyone who is here illegally such as visa overstayers.
At Mrs Stodge's birthday lunch yesterday, I unfortunately had to hear the stupidity of some of the more extreme Reform supporters among her circle of friends - they were openly calling for the army to be deployed to the beaches and for people arriving on boats to be shot on sight. That's where the anti-immigration rhetoric ends up - state sanctioned murder.
Others were criticising the RNLI for rescuing people in trouble at sea - that's where the debate has taken us.
The issue has been allowed to fester in the public consciousness because successive Governments have been unable to come up with a coherent, legal and effective solution to those trying to cross the Channel (as well as other methods of illegal entry). Beyond that, there is the abuse of the term "human rights" which for many now seems to be prevarication and good money for lawyers.
The accusations that anyone on the 150,000 is either a Robinson supporter or dumb just fails to recognise the anger of millions that see only Farage is listening to them
That'll go well for you.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-june-2025
But since we don't live in the United States, the government can't really pressure the media much about what stories to cover.
Janet Street-Porter (one of the people who broke Britain by accident) once had a mantra "News is entertainment, entertainment is news." That's even more dismally true when news channels have to fill 24 hours a day and keep people hooked.
Risible government failures will always be more entertaining than small government wins. Even if the accumulation of small wins is how success happens.
https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/53491/ordinary-men-by-christopher-r-browning/9780141000428
The challenge for the Tories imo is activating some realism on their position and maximum potential in the next few years.
They arent forming the next government. Therefore they need to work out what, at best, they can achieve. For the next GE work out the best 200 seats in the country for them - Blue Wall, big Rural in the North, rural East, Scots borders, Labour marginals with below average Reform vote, North, West and Wealthy Central London and where they don't hold them get PPCs in right now and work the arse off them relentlessly. Go into an election to win 90 to 150 of them and hang on.
For the locals, identify the councils that can be clung on to and focus on them and throw everything at winning a mayoralty or two, in London they'll definitely lose Bexley to Ref and probably Bromley too (but remaining largest party in NOC) but there is potential for 1 to 3 pick ups further West - Westminster very likely and both Barnet and Wandsworth can be targeted, get a win ot two to celebrate and build on.
Holyrood - its going to be their worst ever seat result so try and hold on to constituencies to at least have 'a base' to work from. Ettrick etc, Dumfriesshire should stay blue and I guess West Aberdeenshire, Banff, Ayr, D and G, Perthshire and Eastwood will be where the rest of the effort is entirely focused, winning the initial 2 plus any of those would be 'something' but they realistically are looking at 4th or 5th in seats
Senedd - turning out the vote is key to maximising seats. They ought to get something in at least the following pairs - Monmouth/Torfaen, Clwyd (these two are the only ones where 2 seats are possible imo), Bangor/Ynys mon, Vale of Glamorgan pair, Pembrokeshire pair, Brecon pair, so working those heavily to GOTV. They should be aiming for 10 to 12 to stay in the game.
Its dirty work striving only to underachieve vs history but its all they can and should do for now. The alternative is no longer being a thing
Absent immigration, your paragraph above would simply be a description of reality.
As stated I just found the immediate conjunction whiffy.
And yes, we have to accept that what's happened has happened. We can't turn the clock back. But that doesn't mean the future isn't up for debate.
Very inadequate edition of Newsnight last night. First its budget was cut, and now it's time has been cut. Most of the reporting has gone, and presenters have been imported from five live. As one might expect, the results are that the tone of the programme ismoving towards banal, rushed infotainment.
Because the vision of the likes of Robinson is *really* bleak.
Polls this week show...
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▪️Georgia Meloni Brothers of Italy is number 1 in Italy 🇮🇹
▪️Right-wing Freedom Party is number 1 in Austria 🇦🇹
▪️The right-wing AfD party is number 1 in Germany 🇩🇪
Auto enrolment and ending the requirement to buy an annuity will lead to ordinary people building up a financial asset worth hundreds of thousands.
I suspect this so outrages some leftists that they are now advocating increased taxation of pensions merely out of spite.