politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since

PokerSNGpro said:

AndyJS said:

PokerSNGpro said:

AndyJS said:

Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

Pulpstar said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

peter_from_putney said:

audreyanne said:

In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1%

p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.

Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.

A
The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.

Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.

Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.

I might take you up on that offer.

I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

My graph is better than yours Mike!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559681942908841984

@sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?

The simple average inc. YG says 0.18%, the ELBOW figure excluding the fine detail from YG so far is 0.14%

So the previous lowest lead might have been beaten before tonight outlier!

Tim_B said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tim_B said:

bigjohnowls said:

peter_from_putney said:

bigjohnowls said:

@PTP

Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.

Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!

A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.

Really he is about to become my favourite golfer as long as he doesn't double bogey the last

He carded a 68 today.

Indeed and so completed a four figure gain day for me.

As rare as an albatross




on a par 3

I am off to get pissed!!!

PokerSNGpro said:

peter_from_putney said:

PokerSNGpro said:

AndyJS said:

PokerSNGpro said:

AndyJS said:

Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

Pulpstar said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

peter_from_putney said:

audreyanne said:

In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1%

p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.

Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.

A
The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.

Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.

Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.

I might take you up on that offer.

I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.

I lay down 5k a month on betfair poker.

So do many others I'm sure, but if you want to make substantial bets then cash should be lodged with a regular.

peter_from_putney said:

PokerSNGpro said:

AndyJS said:

PokerSNGpro said:

AndyJS said:

Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

Pulpstar said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

peter_from_putney said:

audreyanne said:

In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1%

p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.

Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.

A
The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.

Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.

Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.

I might take you up on that offer.

I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.

13-8, 8-13 is the correct price - and based off the Ashcroft poll looks about right to me.

PokerSNGpro said:

Flightpath said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

PokerSNGpro said:

Serious question
If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.

But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.

So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.

Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.

Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

My graph is better than yours Mike!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559681942908841984

@sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?

Labour lead in Monthly "Super-ELBOWs" since August:

August 3.4%
Sept 4.0%
Oct 1.8%
Nov 1.8%
Dec 1.7%
Jan so far exc. the final YG 1.0%

Thats really interesting so with only just over 3 months to go the monthly leads have not even halved since October to January.

Betfair markets have swung dramatically yet on that trend Lab most seats ought to be nailed on.

bigjohnowls said:

Tim_B said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tim_B said:

bigjohnowls said:

peter_from_putney said:

bigjohnowls said:

@PTP

Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.

Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!

A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.

Really he is about to become my favourite golfer as long as he doesn't double bogey the last

He carded a 68 today.

Indeed and so completed a four figure gain day for me.

As rare as an albatross




on a par 3

I am off to get pissed!!!

He's about to be interviewed on CBS by David Feherty. An Ulsterman interviewing a Scot on a US network - who knew? Laird has already won 3 times on tour.

Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

Accepting the inevitable, the euros have changed membership standards so that in addition to the majors and the wgc tournaments, you only need to play 4 other tournaments a year to be a member, which is how Rory and Luke Donald, Westwood etc, while living in the US and playing the PGA tour, also are members of the euro tour.

How many gains can Labour get in Lancashire

Bury North looks safish
Morecameb & Lansdale looks probable


Rossendale and Darwen ? That'd be a good night

Any between those ?

GeoffM said:

Charles said:

peter_from_putney said:

JohnO said:

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....

I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!

There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know

Charles, I read the thread in question. A long time lurker who called himself Stonch did indeed delurk briefly to make this generous offer. Both the current and a former pub run by the gentleman in question were discussed and found to be known to a couple of active posters. I hope that helps.

Thanks (and to @Barnesian). I've been busy recently so only dipping in and out

Tim_B said:

Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.

PokerSNGpro said:

Flightpath said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

PokerSNGpro said:

Serious question
If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.

But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.

So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.

Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.

I was born in Lancashire when it was proper Lancashire. There is no such thing as 'Merseyside' for me any more than there is a Greater Manchester. I also know that Warrington is in Cheshire these days and there used to be a Guinness brewery in Runcorn with its fancy ring road system.

Why can't trade unions stay out of dictating politics? Marx was middle class as was Miliband senior. Companies have a responsibility to attract the best people they can to manage and secure income for their investors and the jobs of their workers. That's why I am a capitalist and you are a communist.

.......and off the PB Hodges roll, back down the hill.

Supose I had go and break the bad news to Basil.

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.

I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.

Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith .

I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.

Tim_B said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.

I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.

Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith .

I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.

I didn't think anything got laid in Caithness :-)

I'm laying Boris too for the leadership.

Tim_B said:

Dair said:

Tim_B said:

Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.

Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.

I recall Montgomery used to make the most money even though he stuck with the European Tour, always seemed to be due to the lack of competition. I may be wrong but it would seem 10 years at £500k a year is better than 5 years at £750k a year, even considering costs.

Tim_B said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.

I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.

Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith .

I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.

I didn't think anything got laid in Caithness :-)

They have a LOT off sheep.

audreyanne said:

In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1%

p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

The week before 31.8%, and 32.3% the week before that.

So, using your simple weekly averages, the increase in the Conservative poll share you are so excited about merely takes it back to roughly the level it had at the beginning of the month, and precisely the same as it had for the first full week of December.

It looks to me as though Mike Smithson's characterisation of the broad trend in the polls is more accurate than yours. So busy are you looking at the noise in the polls that you have no appreciation of the larger picture.

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.

I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.

Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith .

I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.

You mean Liberal of course.

No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.

Think this is my problem with the terminology. I always thought laying a bet meant supporting the outcome.

the you gov poll is illogical.

Tim_B said:

Dair said:

Tim_B said:

Dair said:

Tim_B said:

Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.

Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.

I recall Montgomery used to make the most money even though he stuck with the European Tour, always seemed to be due to the lack of competition. I may be wrong but it would seem 10 years at £500k a year is better than 5 years at £750k a year, even considering costs.

The last figures I saw, and this is several years ago, the average PGA Tour pro made about $1.25 million in earnings, and about $4 million in endorsements. But by the time you pay everything from travel to entrance fees to agent fees, actual income is about $2.5 million.

Montgomery is great at pro-ams, one of the best. He's always fun to talk to.

My figures were random, I have no doubt the PGA pays a lot of money per annum, it's about gaining access I'm not sure about.

And whenever I've spent time with Montgomery he really has been a much worse dick than you would expect.

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.

I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.

Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith .

I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.

You mean Liberal of course.

No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.

Think this is my problem with the terminology. I always thought laying a bet meant supporting the outcome.

Bookies 'lay' bets, but if you back 2 out of 3 horses in a 5 nag race with 2 beach donkeys making up the remaining entrants, you've basically laid the remaining horse

Met a Labour MSP I came to know during the referendum campaign today. She was out with a stall in the City Centre of Dundee. She tells me that Jim Murphy has got everyone running around "like blue arsed flies" (possibly not the best analogy) and working harder than ever before.

This is largely in recognition, I think, that they have more than ever before to do. She confirmed they were trying hard to reach out to traditional supporters who had voted yes but she also admitted they were not finding it easy.

Interesting times but at least under Murphy Labour is remembering how to fight.

Danny says -
''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.

I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.

Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith .

I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.

You mean Liberal of course.

No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.

Think this is my problem with the terminology. I always thought laying a bet meant supporting the outcome.

Bookies 'lay' bets, but if you back 2 out of 3 horses in a 5 nag race with 2 beach donkeys making up the remaining entrants, you've basically laid the remaining horse

In Ethiopia they'd make you marry it....

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

the you gov poll is illogical.

PB definitions, number 43:

"Illogical poll": Poll with an unwelcome result.

It flies in the face of current evidence. More polls will tell us more. Why does You Gov suddenly move to 3% lead from all square?? it is illogical...

I do hope you will remember this and your 7% lead when Broxtowe is too close to call at the GE.

DavidL said:

Met a Labour MSP I came to know during the referendum campaign today. She was out with a stall in the City Centre of Dundee. She tells me that Jim Murphy has got everyone running around "like blue arsed flies" (possibly not the best analogy) and working harder than ever before.

This is largely in recognition, I think, that they have more than ever before to do. She confirmed they were trying hard to reach out to traditional supporters who had voted yes but she also admitted they were not finding it easy.

Interesting times but at least under Murphy Labour is remembering how to fight.

Do Labour really know how to fight in Scotland? When a party has weighed the vote for 50 years do they have any idea how to win multiple constituencies with very few members? This isn't the referendum, Labour are desperate in England too and won't be able to bus canvassers up from Lancashire or Yorkshire.

What is surprising, perhaps, is that Labour are even trying to defend Dundee where they really don't have a hope in hell. That might indicate Murphy is still living in this Labour Scotland dreamland. It certainly isn't going to happen there.

Flightpath said:

Danny says -
''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.

Tim_B said:

Flightpath said:

RodCrosby said:

Dair said:

PokerSNGpro said:

Flightpath said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

PokerSNGpro said:

Serious question
...

...

...

...

Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.

I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.

I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.

I'm from Poulton-le-Fylde, gateway to Blackpool.

My brother and his family would visit the Fylde quite regularly. I only know its a nice gateway to a now sadly shabby mansion.
I've no desire to turn this into a branch of TripAdvisor but one of the first trips I took the lady who is now my wife on was to Martin Mere near Ormskirk. I only say so because Lancashire is a beautiful place with many rural locations and associated voters, which was the point of my first comment.

OblitusSumMe said:

Flightpath said:

Danny says -
''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.

Come on. Labour deliberately decided that the middle class should become benefit dependent and expanded Family Tax Credit to a ridiculous level so that even families on £60k a year got extra bonus taxpayers money in terms of Child Tax Credit. The entire programme was designed intentionally to make most people reliant on the benefit system.

Blair has one thing to answer for. Not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not the whit elephant Carriers. He needs to answer for why he felt the need to move most of the country on to benefits.

Dair said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Flightpath said:

Danny says -
''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.

Come on. Labour deliberately decided that the middle class should become benefit dependent and expanded Family Tax Credit to a ridiculous level so that even families on £60k a year got extra bonus taxpayers money in terms of Child Tax Credit. The entire programme was designed intentionally to make most people reliant on the benefit system.

Blair has one thing to answer for. Not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not the whit elephant Carriers. He needs to answer for why he felt the need to move most of the country on to benefits.

Well said - Dave's recent pensioner bond giveaway was as naked an election bribe as you'll see too.

Dair said:

DavidL said:

Met a Labour MSP I came to know during the referendum campaign today. She was out with a stall in the City Centre of Dundee. She tells me that Jim Murphy has got everyone running around "like blue arsed flies" (possibly not the best analogy) and working harder than ever before.

This is largely in recognition, I think, that they have more than ever before to do. She confirmed they were trying hard to reach out to traditional supporters who had voted yes but she also admitted they were not finding it easy.

Interesting times but at least under Murphy Labour is remembering how to fight.

Do Labour really know how to fight in Scotland? When a party has weighed the vote for 50 years do they have any idea how to win multiple constituencies with very few members? This isn't the referendum, Labour are desperate in England too and won't be able to bus canvassers up from Lancashire or Yorkshire.

What is surprising, perhaps, is that Labour are even trying to defend Dundee where they really don't have a hope in hell. That might indicate Murphy is still living in this Labour Scotland dreamland. It certainly isn't going to happen there.

I think you are right that in too many parts of Scotland complacency and arrogance was commonplace but from what I see as an outsider they are working again. I remember when Dundee was dominated by trade union activists who controlled the local Labour party and provided such manpower (and it was largely men) as was required at elections. Those days are past. In Dundee the Gulf war was a major breaking point.

I will be very interested to see if Lord Ashcroft has polled Dundee West. I would be surprised if he hadn't. It was supposed to be close the last time but it wasn't. My guess is that the SNP will be ahead but not out of sight. Dundee East is of course safe SNP.

Flightpath said:

Tim_B said:

Flightpath said:

RodCrosby said:

Dair said:

PokerSNGpro said:

Flightpath said:

PokerSNGpro said:

kle4 said:

PokerSNGpro said:

Serious question
...

...

...

...

Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.

I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.

I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.

I'm from Poulton-le-Fylde, gateway to Blackpool.

My brother and his family would visit the Fylde quite regularly. I only know its a nice gateway to a now sadly shabby mansion.
I've no desire to turn this into a branch of TripAdvisor but one of the first trips I took the lady who is now my wife on was to Martin Mere near Ormskirk. I only say so because Lancashire is a beautiful place with many rural locations and associated voters, which was the point of my first comment.

I remember Martin Mere well. I have many happy memories of growing up in the Fylde.

Blackpool has not fared well unfortunately. The tourist side of it was never my cup of tea, but riding a tram to see the illuminations was always fun.

RobD said:

TGOHF said:

Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

*blows raspberries at Sunil*

Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS

Dair said:

OblitusSumMe said:

That's not really the point I am arguing against.

What I am trying to point out is that Labour were not intent on ever-increasing spending with no limit. The figures show that they did make an effort to restrain spending in the years 2005-08.

Maybe it was too little too late. Maybe they had gone too far during 2001-05.

The point I was making was that they were conscious of there existing a limit on spending, and they were acting on that realisation during the years when Osborne and Cameron were campaigning on how to "share the proceeds of growth".

But that is kinda what matters. For a couple of reasons.

Firstly comparing spend to GDP and refusing to repay debt is pretty meaningless, NuLabour had a choice to refuse more spending and chose not to cut back

But the reality of the conversion of a relatively small benefit in Family Credit to a huge enormous, unsustainable and UNCANCELLABLE benefit that is Child Tax Credit is the root of the problem we are now in. The Tories refuse to cancel it, Labour deliberately implemented it to create more dependency on the state. It has worked and the State is fucked, it cannot pay Child Tax Credits and politically no politician can end them.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2127602/We-afford-Labour-s-31-billion-tax-credit-monster-Our-welfare-link-rights-personal-responsibility.html

Has our tax and benefit system depressed wages, kept rents artificially high and so forth

Interesting comment here on the article I linked to:

Sarah, Birmingham, 2 years ago

A relative of mine is a 28 year old single mother of 1, she moved back in with her parents when she got pregnant and the child is now 2. She wats to go back to work, but she's calculated that with the system as it is now, she would be just £32 a week better off in a full time job. And she'd have to put her daughter in child care. What kind of messed up system thinks that's ok?! Benefits are too high and wages are kept artificially low because of this.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TGOHF said:

Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

*blows raspberries at Sunil*

Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS

You mean TNS-BMRB?

Muhahaha!

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TGOHF said:

Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

*blows raspberries at Sunil*

Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS

You mean TNS-BMRB?

Muhahaha!

TNS-BMRB always makes me think of Brummie Radio stations.

So 7 out of 43 leads for the Tories in Jan. No crossover in sight.

Socrates said:

@OblitusSumMe

This chart says it all about New Labour's management of the UK economy:

http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/Pictures/web/k/u/m/McKinsey-debt-and-deleveraging-resize_549.jpg

Except that includes private debt, which is nothing to do with government in a neoliberal hellhole like the UK, so you are talking nonsense.

I wonder why Labour wouldn't wish to focus on the merits of the respective leaders?

Labour has vowed not to feature Prime Minister David Cameron on billboards ahead of the general election.

The party said it would not use negative personal campaigning, focusing on issues rather than personalities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31079026

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TGOHF said:

Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

*blows raspberries at Sunil*

Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS

You mean TNS-BMRB?

Muhahaha!

Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing Opinion Polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I just... *do* things.

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