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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September. Wiki chart
http://t.co/XvWSExGrQ6 pic.twitter.com/PITg2ELZgm

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    First?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Oh Mike.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    It is not the outcome I would prefer, but all the things that could work in the Tories' favour I cannot see reversing the factors weighing them down by enough to make the difference against Labour, given so little movement. People won't suddenly change their minds that much I think, people are overestimating how bad Ed is - even if to many political wonks he appears so bad.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    The bigger story from that chart, is the tailing off of UKIP and rise of the machines Greens.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    Documentary on BBC News about migrants in Calais admits that crime in Calais has risen with the immigrant population.

    Also interesting that the immigrants they interview say that England is better because they will be given food and a housing for free.

    What's absurd is that those that get caught hiding on trucks just get kicked out of the compound to try again, rather than processed for asylum or sent back home.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    I'm certainly not chucking away my Ed Milishite PM betslips.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    MarkHopkins said:


    The bigger story from that chart, is the tailing off of UKIP and rise of the machines Greens.

    And the LDs still trending down, not up, after years of being static at least.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited January 2015
    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    An interesting statistic - estimates of attendance at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale will exceed 500,000 for the four days of the tournament. There are 15,000 each day on the par 3 16th alone.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?

    Wikipedia says you have to go back till 1875 to find a time when the Conservative and unionists weren't in control of Horsham!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?

    Would you be more concerned if a Martian moved in next door or a Romanian?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Serious question: why do people persist in saying ukip are tailing off?

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?

    They might have done so in the book, but not the movie...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm certainly not chucking away my Ed Milishite PM betslips.

    Incredible prices still on Betfair just took some 2.42 and 2.4
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Yes. The Finborough Arms in Earls Court. Provisionally that's going ahead. Watch this space.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    antifrank said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?

    Would you be more concerned if a Martian moved in next door or a Romanian?
    It would depend on their DIY skills.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    blackburn63 said:

    Serious question: why do people persist in saying ukip are tailing off?

    Because of the latest polls on the chart (purple line, right-hand end):-

    image

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    It's that 35% strategy, innit.

    Contrary to notme on the last thread, I'm not finding many "don't knows" at all. The ones I'm finding are in most cases I think actually non-voters - they eye you absent-mindedly and say "oh, I dunno really, no I didn't vote last time". That may be a marginal effect, and the fact that the constituency has really been in election mode for 6 years now. The roads I canvassed this afternoon were roads I've done three times before in that period.

    An exciting week coming up - Audrey is going to start paying attention to the polls! I have a bet with her of £10 that there won't be a 7-point Tory lead...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Just for old times sake!!

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    LAB 340 CON 265 LD 18 EICIPM
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mr Hopkins, your graph shows a slight recent downturn against a steady rise, not tailing off. Sounds like wishful thinking to me, the single biggest reason why most punters lose money.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hmm my bet on all three leaders going this year looks marginally better tonight.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Mail on Sunday front page: Labour knives out for 'loser' Red Ed

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8tdSkrIMAAOXOD.jpg
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    Francis Maude? That's retirement number 84. Also 3 deselections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    antifrank said:

    Hmm my bet on all three leaders going this year looks marginally better tonight.

    Explain ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So is the mini Crossover over ?
  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    antifrank said:

    Hmm my bet on all three leaders going this year looks marginally better tonight.

    If you're basing it off the Mail on Sunday front page then err...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Hmm my bet on all three leaders going this year looks marginally better tonight.

    Explain ?
    Newspapers, innit. See the Sunday Times.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    bigjohnowls said:

    Just for old times sake!!

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    LAB 340 CON 265 LD 18 EICIPM

    Even with the SNP nuisance , EICIPM !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I would be disappointed that the earlier in the week momentum has reversed a little if i were a Tory.

    Although my gut feel is that the Lab lead has all but gone and we are now neck and neck.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited January 2015
    blackburn63 said:

    Mr Hopkins, your graph shows a slight recent downturn against a steady rise, not tailing off. Sounds like wishful thinking to me, the single biggest reason why most punters lose money.

    "your graph" Wikipedia's. Not mine.

    The article was about what was happening recently.

    There is a long-term rise, seemingly at Labour's expense. More recently the Green's seem to be getting the benefit.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mail on Sunday front page: Labour knives out for 'loser' Red Ed

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8tdSkrIMAAOXOD.jpg

    Yeah, in the Mail's imagination ! The Labour Party never assassinates its leader. That is done by Tory low-life's. Why should we remove the next PM ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    A lot of Tory retirements in Plato's back yard: Wealden, Horsham, Bexhill & Battle, Hove.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
    This is the pub in question:

    http://www.finborougharms.co.uk/#content
  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited January 2015
    PokerSNGpro said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Are the Greens going Red ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mail on Sunday front page: Labour knives out for 'loser' Red Ed

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8tdSkrIMAAOXOD.jpg

    Too late to ditch him unfortunately. In Australia it would be a different matter: they're not afraid to get rid of leaders a few weeks before an election.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited January 2015
    Tim_B said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?

    They might have done so in the book, but not the movie...
    I got it wrong, it was Horsell Common the Martians landed on; Horsell a village near Woking.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    A lot of Tory retirements in Plato's back yard: Wealden, Horsham, Bexhill & Battle, Hove.

    Gives a whole new meaning to 'pussy whipped' :-)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    bigjohnowls said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    The YouGov from a week ago had CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%
    The YouGov for now has CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    It moved a bit in between, sometimes with Labour and Tories going up or both down, but this has the significance of the first labour lead. If Labour have not taken any vote of Tories and the Green vote is down then there is only one party left and that is the SNP. The question of sampling not to mention voter confusion always remains in this situation.
    I can only conclude there has been no movement over the last week. Is there a dam somewhere about to burst. The first signs are a tiny crack and a little trickle of water.
  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    kle4 said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Former Ukip candidate who sent offensive email to mosque after ISIS beheading of US journalist and posted racial slurs on Facebook is spared jail

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2934428/Former-Ukip-candidate-sent-offensive-email-mosque-ISIS-beheading-journalist-posted-racial-slurs-Facebook-spared-jail.html
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Dunno what you mean by "broad trend."

    The Labour lead is down from 3-4.5% in September to near-zero now...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
    Then I shall just have to go at some point. In Stockholm tomorrow and Switzerland on Monday, but will try and head over some time this week if I can
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Cameron has made a massive error, his natural ally in a coalition is ukip but they loathe him. Labour are prepared to do a deal with SNP which leaves the tories stranded.

    The "vote ukip get labour" mantra from ghastly people like Shapps hardens the ukip resolve, Cameron is toast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Interesting article by Matthew Parris in today's Times arguing Labour should return to its pro spending roots, and if voters want austerity they will not vote for Labour's austerity lite. It would also maximise the potential Labour support base and help win back voters from the SNP and Greens
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4340177.ece
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MikeK said:

    Tim_B said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago
    Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election

    Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?

    They might have done so in the book, but not the movie...
    I got it wrong, it was Horsell Common the Martians landed on; Horsell a village near Woking.
    I bet they didn't land there in the movie either :-)

    Isn't that where the Martians used the heat ray? My memory tells me that there is a muslim burial ground there from ww1?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    @Antifrank What's the Sunday Times story :D

    Front page looks apolitical enough to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    AndyJS Indeed, and after the Coalition's rout in Queensland today it looks like Liberal knives are coming out for Abbott, with Coalition MPs calling him 'terminally wounded'. At least Ed Miliband can say he still has a poll lead
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/lnp-rout-leaves-abbott-terminally-wounded/6060126
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.
    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    It's heating up...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RodCrosby said:

    Dunno what you mean by "broad trend."

    The Labour lead is down from 3-4.5% in September to near-zero now...

    Whats the %age chance the Tories are already ahead?

    Think you said 66% last night.

    Tory overall maj chance still over 90% presumably?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381
    edited January 2015
    Bizarre thread...

    Was Mike expecting good news for Con and he had this written in advance?
  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Surburban Yorkshire could keep Cameron in office. The big unknown is Scotland. We just don't know what Is going to happen and no one can predict.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    @Antifrank What's the Sunday Times story :D

    Front page looks apolitical enough to me.

    Sure you are not looking at last week's? (re beheading)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    YG now the new Gold Standard!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
    Then I shall just have to go at some point. In Stockholm tomorrow and Switzerland on Monday, but will try and head over some time this week if I can
    Charles - did you see the name of the pub in question for which I posted this link:

    http://www.finborougharms.co.uk/#content
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting article by Matthew Parris in today's Times arguing Labour should return to its pro spending roots, and if voters want austerity they will not vote for Labour's austerity lite. It would also maximise the potential Labour support base and help win back voters from the SNP and Greens
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4340177.ece

    Makes sense. People don't want austerity so there's a bigger audience to aim for, and politicians are great about pushing trouble the line, so all they need to do is be not too incompetent while spending more than the Tories and it could work as long as disaster is avoided.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    bigjohnowls said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dunno what you mean by "broad trend."

    The Labour lead is down from 3-4.5% in September to near-zero now...

    Whats the %age chance the Tories are already ahead?

    Think you said 66% last night.

    Tory overall maj chance still over 90% presumably?
    A couple of not quite so good polls today. But neither are inconsistent with a small Tory lead.

    I'll do some number crunching when I have the full tables.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS Indeed, and after the Coalition's rout in Queensland today it looks like Liberal knives are coming out for Abbott, with Coalition MPs calling him 'terminally wounded'. At least Ed Miliband can say he still has a poll lead
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/lnp-rout-leaves-abbott-terminally-wounded/6060126

    Interesting facts: since 1980 there have been 13 general elections in Australia compared to 7 in the UK. And they've got another one scheduled for next year even though Abbott was only elected about 15 months ago.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
    So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.
  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS Indeed, and after the Coalition's rout in Queensland today it looks like Liberal knives are coming out for Abbott, with Coalition MPs calling him 'terminally wounded'. At least Ed Miliband can say he still has a poll lead
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/lnp-rout-leaves-abbott-terminally-wounded/6060126

    Interesting facts: since 1980 there have been 13 general elections in Australia compared to 7 in the UK. And they've got another one scheduled for next year even though Abbott was only elected about 15 months ago.
    Seems like it should be pretty bad for stability and the country to be so ruthless with national leaders, but they seem to do ok?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    My graph is better than yours Mike!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559681942908841984
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
    Then I shall just have to go at some point. In Stockholm tomorrow and Switzerland on Monday, but will try and head over some time this week if I can
    Charles - did you see the name of the pub in question for which I posted this link:

    http://www.finborougharms.co.uk/#content
    I did, thanks. I drive down the road whenever I am heading from south of the river to Kensington
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    @Antifrank What's the Sunday Times story :D

    Front page looks apolitical enough to me.

    @ShippersUnbound: "Neo Labour" young Blairites plotting to change Miliband policies or replace him after the election. See Sunday Times
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    JohnO said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS Indeed, and after the Coalition's rout in Queensland today it looks like Liberal knives are coming out for Abbott, with Coalition MPs calling him 'terminally wounded'. At least Ed Miliband can say he still has a poll lead
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/lnp-rout-leaves-abbott-terminally-wounded/6060126

    Interesting facts: since 1980 there have been 13 general elections in Australia compared to 7 in the UK. And they've got another one scheduled for next year even though Abbott was only elected about 15 months ago.
    Seems like it should be pretty bad for stability and the country to be so ruthless with national leaders, but they seem to do ok?
    I think we should move to their system of elections every 3 years. They've shown it can work, as you say.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RodCrosby said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dunno what you mean by "broad trend."

    The Labour lead is down from 3-4.5% in September to near-zero now...

    Whats the %age chance the Tories are already ahead?

    Think you said 66% last night.

    Tory overall maj chance still over 90% presumably?
    A couple of not quite so good polls today. But neither are inconsistent with a small Tory lead.

    I'll do some number crunching when I have the full tables.
    Thanks Rod

    BTW I do agree the trend since October has been running against my EICIPM forecast and can see it being mighty close.

    You think the chances of EICIPM is about 1% dont you?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Charles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
    Then I shall just have to go at some point. In Stockholm tomorrow and Switzerland on Monday, but will try and head over some time this week if I can
    Charles - did you see the name of the pub in question for which I posted this link:

    http://www.finborougharms.co.uk/#content
    I did, thanks. I drive down the road whenever I am heading from south of the river to Kensington
    That's right, across Putney Bridge, a mile or so from me!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    bigjohnowls said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
    A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    My graph is better than yours Mike!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559681942908841984

    It's also more up to date! His is a fortnight out.
  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    AndyJS said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    bigjohnowls said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
    Fair enough, you're forgiven!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Insiders said Miliband’s aides had held secret ‘war gaming’ talks on how he could cling on as leader if David Cameron wins in May.

    Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy accused of defying Miliband by ordering Labour’s Scottish MPs to quit Westminster now and return to their constituencies to fight for their seats in May’s Election.

    Allies of Miliband accused former Blairite Cabinet Minister Peter Mandelson of masterminding a plot to ‘destablise’ him.

    Miliband faced claims of paranoia from Shadow Ministers after telling them: ‘I know they’re coming for me and I am ready for it.’


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2934698/Labour-knives-loser-Red-Ed-Election-panic-grips-party-big-guns-turn-haunted-Miliband.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    Where's yer Crossover now?

    Even in the simple average, Lab now 0.2% ahead across the week's polls, inc. the Sunday YG!

    (ELBOW will be calculated once the YG tables come out)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    My graph is better than yours Mike!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559681942908841984

    @sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It would have to be £200. I'll think about it for a bit if you don't mind.
    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

  • PokerSNGproPokerSNGpro Posts: 35
    AndyJS said:

    It would have to be £200. I'll think about it for a bit if you don't mind.

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.


    Offer removed.

    Go to the bookies you will make more money if you put 200 on a Tory hold. I think you would get 2\1.

    Good luck.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Dair (earlier thread on the union) At the 1993 Canadian general election the Quebec nationalists won 54/75 seats and 2 years later only lost a second independence referendum by less than 2%. At the 2011 Canadian general election the nationalists slumped to just 4 seats, nothing is inevitable!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2011
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tim_B said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
    A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.
    Really he is about to become my favourite golfer as long as he doesn't double bogey the last
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    It would have to be £200. I'll think about it for a bit if you don't mind.

    Against someone with only 21 posts under their belt?
    Some would consider that a gamble in itself!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    edited January 2015
    kle4 Indeed, already this year we have seen the Syriza victory, and just today a huge Podemos rally in Spain and a Labor Landslide in Queensland on a platform opposing the Coalition's cuts, the tide seems to be moving away from austerity
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    It would have to be £200. I'll think about it for a bit if you don't mind.

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.


    Offer removed.

    Go to the bookies you will make more money if you put 200 on a Tory hold. I think you would get 2\1.

    Good luck.


    Bookies are 4-7 Labour, 6-4 Conservatives so

    Laying the bet at 13-8 would be a fair option and save you both paying bookie's over-round.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    My graph is better than yours Mike!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559681942908841984

    @sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?
    The simple average inc. YG says 0.18%, the ELBOW figure excluding the fine detail from YG so far is 0.14%
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    PokerSNGpro said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    audreyanne said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

    I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.
This discussion has been closed.