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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,899
    AndyJS By the looks of it Abbott may not even get to lead the Liberals to next year's election, he could be knifed by Julie Bishop in a leadership spill if his dire ratings continue
  • @sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?
    Labour lead in Monthly "Super-ELBOWs" since August:

    August 3.4%
    Sept 4.0%
    Oct 1.8%
    Nov 1.8%
    Dec 1.7%
    Jan so far exc. the final YG 1.0%


  • kle4 said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
    So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.
    Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

    I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

    I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.


  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
    A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.
    Really he is about to become my favourite golfer as long as he doesn't double bogey the last
    He carded a 68 today.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    @sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?
    The simple average inc. YG says 0.18%, the ELBOW figure excluding the fine detail from YG so far is 0.14%
    So the previous lowest lead might have been beaten before tonight outlier!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

    I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.
    I lay down 5k a month on betfair poker.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    In an 'ultra marginal' have UKIP selected a candidate for Morecambe yet?
    Greens have picked up council seats in the area.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
    A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.
    Really he is about to become my favourite golfer as long as he doesn't double bogey the last
    He carded a 68 today.
    Indeed and so completed a four figure gain day for me.

    As rare as an albatross




    on a par 3

    I am off to get pissed!!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    Is that "his pub" as in his local, or is he a publican?

    If the latter, I'll pop by and drink his health - I used to have a garden nearby so know the area reasonably well
    Charles - he's the actual publican there and previously ran another pub, so he's clearly experienced as to what's required. I'll check back and see if I can find the name unless Stodge is online and can save me the trouble!
    Then I shall just have to go at some point. In Stockholm tomorrow and Switzerland on Monday, but will try and head over some time this week if I can
    Charles - did you see the name of the pub in question for which I posted this link:

    http://www.finborougharms.co.uk/#content
    I did, thanks. I drive down the road whenever I am heading from south of the river to Kensington
    That's right, across Putney Bridge, a mile or so from me!
    I used to visit my grandfather in Heathview Gardens so know it well. Lovely walk down the hill to the Green Man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

    I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.
    I lay down 5k a month on betfair poker.
    So do many others I'm sure, but if you want to make substantial bets then cash should be lodged with a regular.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft showed the Tories doing well in Blackpool North, South Ribble, Morecambe&Lunesdale. Not exactly a graveyard. I agree about Bury North which is more influenced by Manchester trends.

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    I think any fair minded individual would concede that the Tories have made some progress over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
    Yes indeed, that's reasonable. Enough? No. Likely to increase to the point it is enough at some point? Personally I say no, others are more optimistic.
    A
    The Tories are going to get massacred in the Northwest. Nothing will stop this from even happening. They don't report till late but from 4.30am onwards seat after seat after seat will fall. Noteven miliband can stop this.

    London will be another tory graveyard. The key is the east Midlands. J23-J28 on m1 will be epicentre of who wins.
    Bury north is a nailed on Labour gain, agree Lancashire will be a graveyard - expecting West Yorkshire to be closer. Pudsey will be very close.
    Ill take a bet with anyone on here that labour will win Morecambe. Must be over £200 as people need to learn a lesson.
    I might take you up on that offer.
    I can go as high as 500 on Morecambe. No lower than 200 we have a bet.
    Labour win. You pay me. Tories win. I pay you.

    I see you're new to this site - if you're expecting people to take you seriously, I suggest when proposing bets, you take account of the prevailing odds, where in this case the bookies have Labour priced at around 1/2. Also as a newbie, you should expect to be asked to deposit the value of the bet as collateral until you have established your bona fides.
    13-8, 8-13 is the correct price - and based off the Ashcroft poll looks about right to me.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
    So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.
    Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

    I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

    I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
    It is Stonch.
    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/stonch
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    I think that UKIPs minor decline has been halted in recent weeks. The latest point on the curve is only based on 5 polls (I think), so that can't really be trusted yet.

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    @sunil is this weeks the lowest ELBOW lead and witn now only 3 months to go next week how much has the gap closed in the last 3 months?
    Labour lead in Monthly "Super-ELBOWs" since August:

    August 3.4%
    Sept 4.0%
    Oct 1.8%
    Nov 1.8%
    Dec 1.7%
    Jan so far exc. the final YG 1.0%


    Thats really interesting so with only just over 3 months to go the monthly leads have not even halved since October to January.

    Betfair markets have swung dramatically yet on that trend Lab most seats ought to be nailed on.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
    Charles, I read the thread in question. A long time lurker who called himself Stonch did indeed delurk briefly to make this generous offer. Both the current and a former pub run by the gentleman in question were discussed and found to be known to a couple of active posters. I hope that helps.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    @PTP

    Thanks PTP forgot the Buzz of a rally big win (not there yet 4 holes to go) and in the bloody water

    Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,

    BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.

    Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years

    For the umpteenth time, you're confusing me with PtP! You owe PB.com yet another £1 fine towards its social fund.
    Bugger if Martin Laird hangs on i will buy you a whole pint!!
    A Scotsman who lives - appropriately enough - in Scottsdale, just a few miles from where he's playing this week.
    Really he is about to become my favourite golfer as long as he doesn't double bogey the last
    He carded a 68 today.
    Indeed and so completed a four figure gain day for me.

    As rare as an albatross




    on a par 3

    I am off to get pissed!!!
    He's about to be interviewed on CBS by David Feherty. An Ulsterman interviewing a Scot on a US network - who knew? Laird has already won 3 times on tour.

    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Accepting the inevitable, the euros have changed membership standards so that in addition to the majors and the wgc tournaments, you only need to play 4 other tournaments a year to be a member, which is how Rory and Luke Donald, Westwood etc, while living in the US and playing the PGA tour, also are members of the euro tour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited January 2015

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
    So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.
    Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

    I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

    I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.


    Given you have mentioned Lancashire, I am obliged to post these:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/art/features/cotton-to-gold-the-riveting-new-show-that-mines-the-art-riches-of-industrialists-9983047.html

    http://www.apollo-magazine.com/community-conscious-cotton-gold-explores-industry-philanthropy/

    This is an absolutely fabulous show, even if I do say so myself. Easily my favorite so far.

    I'd really really encourage people to come.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    How many gains can Labour get in Lancashire

    Bury North looks safish
    Morecameb & Lansdale looks probable


    Rossendale and Darwen ? That'd be a good night

    Any between those ?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
    So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.
    Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

    I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

    I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
    I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited January 2015
    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GeoffM said:

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
    Charles, I read the thread in question. A long time lurker who called himself Stonch did indeed delurk briefly to make this generous offer. Both the current and a former pub run by the gentleman in question were discussed and found to be known to a couple of active posters. I hope that helps.
    Thanks (and to @Barnesian). I've been busy recently so only dipping in and out
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
    Thanks Charles, I think JohnO owes me the £1, not the other way round.
    Btw, speaking of the Green Man on Putney Heath, were you aware that a No.14 bus will take you from that fine establishment directly to the aforementioned Finborough Arms? ..... Sounds like the basis for a Friday afternoon pub crawl!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited January 2015
    Tim_B said:


    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

    I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
    Thanks Charles, I think JohnO owes me the £1, not the other way round.
    Btw, speaking of the Green Man on Putney Heath, were you aware that a No.14 bus will take you from that fine establishment directly to the aforementioned Finborough Arms? ..... Sounds like the basis for a Friday afternoon pub crawl!
    I wasn't...

    But how do I get to the Green Man in the first place...?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    If there was no press wouldn't we be less nervous and afraid of things?

    Would we not be happier and more civilised as humans and have proper conversations rather than stabbing people in the back or putting each other down.

    No we wouldn't. Such things develop to fill a need, and deliver things that people want, and positives and negatives come from that. If we had no 'press' the things it provides would have other outlets.
    But how do we build a need and want if the press aren't ramming down our throats what we must buy from where and what is good as what isn't.

    Consumerism is evil pushed by thr press.
    So we have a blatant communist telling us that we should abolish the press. He also seems to think Bootle represents Lancashire. I confess to a slight exaggeration here - no doubt influenced by the press.
    Bootle is in merseyside. Lancashire is not in Merseyside.

    I am not a communist. I am middle class but I don't vote for the 1%.

    I hate selfishness especially from people who use people for there own agenda. Ceos have a responsibility to stay out of politics and pay the staff proper salaries first not themselves 6 figure yearly increases. That's greed and the individual is a proper c**t. No other word more deserving.


    I was born in Lancashire when it was proper Lancashire. There is no such thing as 'Merseyside' for me any more than there is a Greater Manchester. I also know that Warrington is in Cheshire these days and there used to be a Guinness brewery in Runcorn with its fancy ring road system.

    Why can't trade unions stay out of dictating politics? Marx was middle class as was Miliband senior. Companies have a responsibility to attract the best people they can to manage and secure income for their investors and the jobs of their workers. That's why I am a capitalist and you are a communist.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    .......and off the PB Hodges roll, back down the hill.

    Supose I had go and break the bad news to Basil.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting article by Matthew Parris in today's Times arguing Labour should return to its pro spending roots, and if voters want austerity they will not vote for Labour's austerity lite. It would also maximise the potential Labour support base and help win back voters from the SNP and Greens
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4340177.ece

    Great article -- as I've been banging on about for weeks, Blair's Labour was to all intents and purposes more left-wing than Miliband's Labour, because of the public spending policies. The idea that Blair won by being some hardcore Tory is a myth: he might not have talked about nationalisations and he might have (thankfully) done away with all the 1980s CND nonsense, but he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies, but todays' Labour leadership don't seem to have grasped that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:


    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

    I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.
    Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

    Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    I didn't think anything got laid in Caithness :-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    I didn't think anything got laid in Caithness :-)
    I'm laying Boris too for the leadership.
  • TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Mine upthread is only 1 week out of date, should be updated within 24 hours.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Tim_B said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:


    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

    I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.
    Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

    Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.
    I recall Montgomery used to make the most money even though he stuck with the European Tour, always seemed to be due to the lack of competition. I may be wrong but it would seem 10 years at £500k a year is better than 5 years at £750k a year, even considering costs.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    You mean Liberal of course.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    I didn't think anything got laid in Caithness :-)
    They have a LOT off sheep.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited January 2015
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    You mean Liberal of course.
    No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    In fact, tonight's 2 polls mean that the average Conservative share has risen from 31.4% to 32.5% in the past fortnight (31.4% last week, 32.5% this week).

    Nevertheless, we will see. The coming week is my first proper litmus test although I could do with the weather being warmer. That'll cost us a good 1% ;)

    p.s. oh and by the way that wiki chart you're reliant on, Mike, hasn't been updated since Jan 10th. The humble pie is going to be so delicious to serve.

    The week before 31.8%, and 32.3% the week before that.

    So, using your simple weekly averages, the increase in the Conservative poll share you are so excited about merely takes it back to roughly the level it had at the beginning of the month, and precisely the same as it had for the first full week of December.

    It looks to me as though Mike Smithson's characterisation of the broad trend in the polls is more accurate than yours. So busy are you looking at the noise in the polls that you have no appreciation of the larger picture.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    ...

    ...
    ...
    ...


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
    I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.
    I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    You mean Liberal of course.
    No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.
    Think this is my problem with the terminology. I always thought laying a bet meant supporting the outcome.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:


    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

    I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.
    Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

    Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.
    I recall Montgomery used to make the most money even though he stuck with the European Tour, always seemed to be due to the lack of competition. I may be wrong but it would seem 10 years at £500k a year is better than 5 years at £750k a year, even considering costs.
    The last figures I saw, and this is several years ago, the average PGA Tour pro made about $1.25 million in earnings, and about $4 million in endorsements. But by the time you pay everything from travel to entrance fees to agent fees, actual income is about $2.5 million.

    Montgomery is great at pro-ams, one of the best. He's always fun to talk to.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    the you gov poll is illogical.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited January 2015

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    ...

    ...
    ...
    ...


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
    I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.
    I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.

    I'm from Poulton-le-Fylde, gateway to Blackpool.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Tim_B said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:


    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

    I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.
    Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

    Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.
    I recall Montgomery used to make the most money even though he stuck with the European Tour, always seemed to be due to the lack of competition. I may be wrong but it would seem 10 years at £500k a year is better than 5 years at £750k a year, even considering costs.
    The last figures I saw, and this is several years ago, the average PGA Tour pro made about $1.25 million in earnings, and about $4 million in endorsements. But by the time you pay everything from travel to entrance fees to agent fees, actual income is about $2.5 million.

    Montgomery is great at pro-ams, one of the best. He's always fun to talk to.
    My figures were random, I have no doubt the PGA pays a lot of money per annum, it's about gaining access I'm not sure about.

    And whenever I've spent time with Montgomery he really has been a much worse dick than you would expect.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568

    the you gov poll is illogical.

    PB definitions, number 43:

    "Illogical poll": Poll with an unwelcome result.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    You mean Liberal of course.
    No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.
    Think this is my problem with the terminology. I always thought laying a bet meant supporting the outcome.
    Bookies 'lay' bets, but if you back 2 out of 3 horses in a 5 nag race with 2 beach donkeys making up the remaining entrants, you've basically laid the remaining horse ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    the you gov poll is illogical.

    PB definitions, number 43:

    "Illogical poll": Poll with an unwelcome result.

    "Outlier", "Gold standard" etc
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Met a Labour MSP I came to know during the referendum campaign today. She was out with a stall in the City Centre of Dundee. She tells me that Jim Murphy has got everyone running around "like blue arsed flies" (possibly not the best analogy) and working harder than ever before.

    This is largely in recognition, I think, that they have more than ever before to do. She confirmed they were trying hard to reach out to traditional supporters who had voted yes but she also admitted they were not finding it easy.

    Interesting times but at least under Murphy Labour is remembering how to fight.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:


    Laird is merely the latest example of the fact that if you want to have a great career as a golfer you need to be on the PGA Tour and not the European tour.

    Are you really sure? The PGA Tour is far harder to qualify for, far harder to keep your card for with much harder standards for existing members to keep their place.

    I guess it depends what you define as a "great career". I would expect most of the worlds professional golfers to make more money on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. On average it might be less but you get more years of being on the average.
    Purses are smaller on the European tour, average earnings are lower, and there are several dark weeks on their calendar. They are in tough financial straits. The PGA Tour goes from strength to strength.

    Full disclosure - I used to be on the scoring committee at the Masters, and marshal several golf tournaments each year, including the Tour Championship.
    I recall Montgomery used to make the most money even though he stuck with the European Tour, always seemed to be due to the lack of competition. I may be wrong but it would seem 10 years at £500k a year is better than 5 years at £750k a year, even considering costs.
    The last figures I saw, and this is several years ago, the average PGA Tour pro made about $1.25 million in earnings, and about $4 million in endorsements. But by the time you pay everything from travel to entrance fees to agent fees, actual income is about $2.5 million.

    Montgomery is great at pro-ams, one of the best. He's always fun to talk to.
    My figures were random, I have no doubt the PGA pays a lot of money per annum, it's about gaining access I'm not sure about.

    And whenever I've spent time with Montgomery he really has been a much worse dick than you would expect.
    He does have that reputation. But he's great at pro-ams, really giving the punters a day to remember.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Danny says -
    ''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

    Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
    ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
    Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

    This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited January 2015

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Wasn't there talk of us using some pub or other in London for May 7th evening - appreciate alot may be engaged but sure someone tentatively offered use of a pub near Earl's Court or some such.

    Indeed, Stodge offered his pub in Earls Court and was confident of being able to secure the necessary late licence, particularly if admission were to be arranged on a "ticket only" basis. I took a look at his website and it looked ideal.

    It's Stonch not Stodge...I think that's a £1 donation to the not Peter the Punter fund.....
    I'm sure it's not "Stonch", (maybe he's not "Stodge" either) , please will a PB Old-timer put us straight on this!
    There is certainly a "Stodge" and I have never heard of "Stonch". Whether Stodge is the man in question, I don't know
    Thanks Charles, I think JohnO owes me the £1, not the other way round.
    Btw, speaking of the Green Man on Putney Heath, were you aware that a No.14 bus will take you from that fine establishment directly to the aforementioned Finborough Arms? ..... Sounds like the basis for a Friday afternoon pub crawl!
    PfP (not PtP).

    I am afraid you are the one who will be facing the £1 fine.

    Consider the evidence.

    Old time regulars, John O, Barnesian and myself can all either recall or vouch for the existence of Stonch as either a former PBer; the publican making the offer under question - or both.

    Barnesian even links to Stonch's PB recent contributions here on this thread.

    Your silent witness, Stodge remains damningly silent.

    The evidence is incontrovertible. Time to cough up I'm afraid.



  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    According to the Observer poll the Lib/Dems have the same number of votes across the UK as as the SNP have in Scotland alone! Is this a new form of crossover?

    It says pretty much everything one needs to know about the number of seats each party will have on May 8th.
    I've gone larg(ish) on the SNP (For me anyway ;) ) so I hope they bring in the bacon.
    Yeah and against the SNP in Caithness, terrible lack of faith :).
    I've laid Labour in Caithness - check your inbox and you'll see what I've done with Scotland.
    You mean Liberal of course.
    No, I've backed Liberal and SNP there and so in effect that lays Labour with both UKIP and the Conservatives being complete no hopers there.
    Think this is my problem with the terminology. I always thought laying a bet meant supporting the outcome.
    Bookies 'lay' bets, but if you back 2 out of 3 horses in a 5 nag race with 2 beach donkeys making up the remaining entrants, you've basically laid the remaining horse ;)
    In Ethiopia they'd make you marry it....
  • the you gov poll is illogical.

    You are Mr Spock and I claim my five Tribbles :)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    the you gov poll is illogical.

    PB definitions, number 43:

    "Illogical poll": Poll with an unwelcome result.

    It flies in the face of current evidence. More polls will tell us more. Why does You Gov suddenly move to 3% lead from all square?? it is illogical...

    I do hope you will remember this and your 7% lead when Broxtowe is too close to call at the GE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    *blows raspberries at Sunil*
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    DavidL said:

    Met a Labour MSP I came to know during the referendum campaign today. She was out with a stall in the City Centre of Dundee. She tells me that Jim Murphy has got everyone running around "like blue arsed flies" (possibly not the best analogy) and working harder than ever before.

    This is largely in recognition, I think, that they have more than ever before to do. She confirmed they were trying hard to reach out to traditional supporters who had voted yes but she also admitted they were not finding it easy.

    Interesting times but at least under Murphy Labour is remembering how to fight.

    Do Labour really know how to fight in Scotland? When a party has weighed the vote for 50 years do they have any idea how to win multiple constituencies with very few members? This isn't the referendum, Labour are desperate in England too and won't be able to bus canvassers up from Lancashire or Yorkshire.

    What is surprising, perhaps, is that Labour are even trying to defend Dundee where they really don't have a hope in hell. That might indicate Murphy is still living in this Labour Scotland dreamland. It certainly isn't going to happen there.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Danny says -
    ''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

    Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
    ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
    Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

    This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

    So when Child Tax Credit and Pensions destroy the British Economy do you think that all of Britain should pay, the Middle Class who went bribed by CTC should pay, the pensioners bribed by exorbitant pensions should pay or the future taxpayers who have already had their money stolen should pay?

    Or should the banking institutions pay, especially if you can externalise that cost to the ones who benefited?
  • Danny says -
    ''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

    Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
    ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
    Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

    This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

    Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

    Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

    In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

    The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Tim_B said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    ...

    ...
    ...
    ...


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
    I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.
    I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.

    I'm from Poulton-le-Fylde, gateway to Blackpool.
    My brother and his family would visit the Fylde quite regularly. I only know its a nice gateway to a now sadly shabby mansion.
    I've no desire to turn this into a branch of TripAdvisor but one of the first trips I took the lady who is now my wife on was to Martin Mere near Ormskirk. I only say so because Lancashire is a beautiful place with many rural locations and associated voters, which was the point of my first comment.
  • the you gov poll is illogical.

    PB definitions, number 43:

    "Illogical poll": Poll with an unwelcome result.

    It flies in the face of current evidence. More polls will tell us more. Why does You Gov suddenly move to 3% lead from all square?? it is illogical...

    I do hope you will remember this and your 7% lead when Broxtowe is too close to call at the GE.
    It's just margin of error.

    Labour's score tonight is 35%, following mid-week scores of 33, 33, 33 and 34. It is easily within the margin of error.

    The Tory score tonight is 32%, following mid-week scores of 34, 34, 33 and 34. It is within the margin of error.

    If anything could be described as illogical - or at least unlikely - it would have been the relatively small amount of variation in the YouGov poll scores during the past week.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Danny says -
    ''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

    Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
    ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
    Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

    This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

    Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

    Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

    In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

    The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.
    Come on. Labour deliberately decided that the middle class should become benefit dependent and expanded Family Tax Credit to a ridiculous level so that even families on £60k a year got extra bonus taxpayers money in terms of Child Tax Credit. The entire programme was designed intentionally to make most people reliant on the benefit system.

    Blair has one thing to answer for. Not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not the whit elephant Carriers. He needs to answer for why he felt the need to move most of the country on to benefits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,899
    Danny565 Indeed, it was Blair and Brown's public service investment which kept the faithful on side
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Danny says -
    ''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

    Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
    ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
    Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

    This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

    Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

    Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

    In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

    The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.
    Come on. Labour deliberately decided that the middle class should become benefit dependent and expanded Family Tax Credit to a ridiculous level so that even families on £60k a year got extra bonus taxpayers money in terms of Child Tax Credit. The entire programme was designed intentionally to make most people reliant on the benefit system.

    Blair has one thing to answer for. Not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not the whit elephant Carriers. He needs to answer for why he felt the need to move most of the country on to benefits.
    Well said - Dave's recent pensioner bond giveaway was as naked an election bribe as you'll see too.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    the you gov poll is illogical.

    Fantastic!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Dair said:

    DavidL said:

    Met a Labour MSP I came to know during the referendum campaign today. She was out with a stall in the City Centre of Dundee. She tells me that Jim Murphy has got everyone running around "like blue arsed flies" (possibly not the best analogy) and working harder than ever before.

    This is largely in recognition, I think, that they have more than ever before to do. She confirmed they were trying hard to reach out to traditional supporters who had voted yes but she also admitted they were not finding it easy.

    Interesting times but at least under Murphy Labour is remembering how to fight.

    Do Labour really know how to fight in Scotland? When a party has weighed the vote for 50 years do they have any idea how to win multiple constituencies with very few members? This isn't the referendum, Labour are desperate in England too and won't be able to bus canvassers up from Lancashire or Yorkshire.

    What is surprising, perhaps, is that Labour are even trying to defend Dundee where they really don't have a hope in hell. That might indicate Murphy is still living in this Labour Scotland dreamland. It certainly isn't going to happen there.
    I think you are right that in too many parts of Scotland complacency and arrogance was commonplace but from what I see as an outsider they are working again. I remember when Dundee was dominated by trade union activists who controlled the local Labour party and provided such manpower (and it was largely men) as was required at elections. Those days are past. In Dundee the Gulf war was a major breaking point.

    I will be very interested to see if Lord Ashcroft has polled Dundee West. I would be surprised if he hadn't. It was supposed to be close the last time but it wasn't. My guess is that the SNP will be ahead but not out of sight. Dundee East is of course safe SNP.
  • Socrates said:
    Yes, it certainly does. I wasn't arguing that it was good!

    I just get really annoyed at the tiresome pretence that all the [financial] ills of our country are due to Gordon Brown spending too much. If only they were that simple.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    ...

    ...
    ...
    ...


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
    I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.
    I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.

    I'm from Poulton-le-Fylde, gateway to Blackpool.
    My brother and his family would visit the Fylde quite regularly. I only know its a nice gateway to a now sadly shabby mansion.
    I've no desire to turn this into a branch of TripAdvisor but one of the first trips I took the lady who is now my wife on was to Martin Mere near Ormskirk. I only say so because Lancashire is a beautiful place with many rural locations and associated voters, which was the point of my first comment.
    I remember Martin Mere well. I have many happy memories of growing up in the Fylde.

    Blackpool has not fared well unfortunately. The tourist side of it was never my cup of tea, but riding a tram to see the illuminations was always fun.
  • Dair said:

    Danny says -
    ''he would not have won so many elections if he didn't have a platform of helping poor people and public services through "tax and spend" policies''

    Blair and Brown turned a surplus into a deficit from 2001 onwards for 10 years by spend and not tax enough. They ruined the British economy and its social structure as a result.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more
    ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
    Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''

    This illustrates the size of the problem and the danger of seductive 'tax and spend' notions - where you end up like Greece.

    Those figures are pointless. Looking at total expenditure as a percentage of GDP is more meaningful.

    Doing so shows that in Labour's first term spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.2% in 1996-97 to 36.2% in 2000-01.

    In the second term was when the massive increase happened, up to 40.1% in 2004-05. However, in the years that followed you can discern that the Labour government changed direction. Spending was then 40.1% in the next year and 39.9% in 2006-07, only increasing to 40.2% in 2007-08. Obviously the figures jump up as GDP falls in the Great Recession.

    The record is very far from the simple stereotype that is often presented.
    Come on. Labour deliberately decided that the middle class should become benefit dependent and expanded Family Tax Credit to a ridiculous level so that even families on £60k a year got extra bonus taxpayers money in terms of Child Tax Credit. The entire programme was designed intentionally to make most people reliant on the benefit system.

    Blair has one thing to answer for. Not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not the whit elephant Carriers. He needs to answer for why he felt the need to move most of the country on to benefits.
    That's not really the point I am arguing against.

    What I am trying to point out is that Labour were not intent on ever-increasing spending with no limit. The figures show that they did make an effort to restrain spending in the years 2005-08.

    Maybe it was too little too late. Maybe they had gone too far during 2001-05.

    The point I was making was that they were conscious of there existing a limit on spending, and they were acting on that realisation during the years when Osborne and Cameron were campaigning on how to "share the proceeds of growth".
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Serious question
    ...

    ...
    ...
    ...


    Merseyside is a conflagration of mainly Lancashire and partly Chesire. It's mainly Lanc in terms of population.
    I grew up in Bootle, Lancs.
    I grew up driving down the East Lancs Road and past the Everton ground and down the A59 to work. On this trip down memory lane I can remember the new docks opening so can remember a bit of old Bootle.
    Yes, the East Lancs Road (never did actually make it as far as East Lancs!) was the UK's first intercity highway (equivalent of the autobahns appearing in Germany at the same time), designed by the Liverpool borough engineer, John Alexander Brodie [inventor of the goal net.]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Socrates said:
    Yes, it certainly does. I wasn't arguing that it was good!

    I just get really annoyed at the tiresome pretence that all the [financial] ills of our country are due to Gordon Brown spending too much. If only they were that simple.
    The problem was that he thought he'd abolished the economic cycle - "no more boom and bust"
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    As of this moment I'm returning as a fully paid up member of the drinking classes! #dryjanuary #DryJanuaryIsOver pic.twitter.com/IO7lN5np1z

    — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 1, 2015
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    That's not really the point I am arguing against.

    What I am trying to point out is that Labour were not intent on ever-increasing spending with no limit. The figures show that they did make an effort to restrain spending in the years 2005-08.

    Maybe it was too little too late. Maybe they had gone too far during 2001-05.

    The point I was making was that they were conscious of there existing a limit on spending, and they were acting on that realisation during the years when Osborne and Cameron were campaigning on how to "share the proceeds of growth".

    But that is kinda what matters. For a couple of reasons.

    Firstly comparing spend to GDP and refusing to repay debt is pretty meaningless, NuLabour had a choice to refuse more spending and chose not to cut back

    But the reality of the conversion of a relatively small benefit in Family Credit to a huge enormous, unsustainable and UNCANCELLABLE benefit that is Child Tax Credit is the root of the problem we are now in. The Tories refuse to cancel it, Labour deliberately implemented it to create more dependency on the state. It has worked and the State is fucked, it cannot pay Child Tax Credits and politically no politician can end them.
  • RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    *blows raspberries at Sunil*
    Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
    Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Safe to say then, there has been no crossover in January.
    3 months to go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    That's not really the point I am arguing against.

    What I am trying to point out is that Labour were not intent on ever-increasing spending with no limit. The figures show that they did make an effort to restrain spending in the years 2005-08.

    Maybe it was too little too late. Maybe they had gone too far during 2001-05.

    The point I was making was that they were conscious of there existing a limit on spending, and they were acting on that realisation during the years when Osborne and Cameron were campaigning on how to "share the proceeds of growth".

    But that is kinda what matters. For a couple of reasons.

    Firstly comparing spend to GDP and refusing to repay debt is pretty meaningless, NuLabour had a choice to refuse more spending and chose not to cut back

    But the reality of the conversion of a relatively small benefit in Family Credit to a huge enormous, unsustainable and UNCANCELLABLE benefit that is Child Tax Credit is the root of the problem we are now in. The Tories refuse to cancel it, Labour deliberately implemented it to create more dependency on the state. It has worked and the State is fucked, it cannot pay Child Tax Credits and politically no politician can end them.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2127602/We-afford-Labour-s-31-billion-tax-credit-monster-Our-welfare-link-rights-personal-responsibility.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25944653

    2019 Budget forecast surplus.

    LOL.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Has our tax and benefit system depressed wages, kept rents artificially high and so forth

    Interesting comment here on the article I linked to:

    Sarah, Birmingham, 2 years ago

    A relative of mine is a 28 year old single mother of 1, she moved back in with her parents when she got pregnant and the child is now 2. She wats to go back to work, but she's calculated that with the system as it is now, she would be just £32 a week better off in a full time job. And she'd have to put her daughter in child care. What kind of messed up system thinks that's ok?! Benefits are too high and wages are kept artificially low because of this.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    MikeK said:

    As of this moment I'm returning as a fully paid up member of the drinking classes! #dryjanuary #DryJanuaryIsOver pic.twitter.com/IO7lN5np1z

    — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 1, 2015

    Possibly the first and last thing I have agreed with Nigel about. Like him I found a dry January more than a little dull with no obvious health benefits at all, poorer sleeping and no weight loss. Not really sure why I bothered.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    *blows raspberries at Sunil*
    Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
    Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS :)
    You mean TNS-BMRB?

    Muhahaha!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25944653

    2019 Budget forecast surplus.

    LOL.

    That deficit/surplus graph as % of GDP is bloody horrible. No distinction between deficit and surplus.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    *blows raspberries at Sunil*
    Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
    Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS :)
    You mean TNS-BMRB?

    Muhahaha!
    TNS-BMRB always makes me think of Brummie Radio stations.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited February 2015
    So 7 out of 43 leads for the Tories in Jan. No crossover in sight.
    Socrates said:
    Except that includes private debt, which is nothing to do with government in a neoliberal hellhole like the UK, so you are talking nonsense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    JWisemann said:

    So 7 out of 43 leads for the Tories in Jan. No crossover in sight.


    Socrates said:
    Except that includes private debt, which is nothing to do with government in a neoliberal hellhole like the UK, so you are talking nonsense.
    What about in the last week, more blue leads than red!
  • I wonder why Labour wouldn't wish to focus on the merits of the respective leaders?

    Labour has vowed not to feature Prime Minister David Cameron on billboards ahead of the general election.

    The party said it would not use negative personal campaigning, focusing on issues rather than personalities.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31079026
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    *blows raspberries at Sunil*
    Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
    Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS :)
    You mean TNS-BMRB?

    Muhahaha!
    TNS-BMRB always makes me think of Brummie Radio stations.
    Their PDFs just say TNS :)
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Thread graph is 3 weeks out of date.

    Don't worry, a fellow PBer keeps his chart up to date on a daily basis!

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    *blows raspberries at Sunil*
    Yebbut MY graph is more detailed for the last six months!
    Convenient, as July was the last month that the Greens were lumped together with "others" by at least one Pollster - TNS :)
    You mean TNS-BMRB?

    Muhahaha!

    Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing Opinion Polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I just... *do* things.
    :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,899
    Murray loses, though as he has clearly declared himself a Scot rather than British I did not have strong feelings either way
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited February 2015
    Test
This discussion has been closed.