Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Yesterday news broke Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, had passed away. He used to post on PB in the early days, advising Mike Smithson and other PBers to focus on the share of the vote for the parties and not to fixate on the lead.
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Said in the voice of one of The Sopranos.
Bob Worcester I remember for his insight on TV talking about polling. The first person to really make me aware of it.
He is a sad loss.
This is the great British Public for you.
Freddie Flintoff - Nearly Died
Rob Burrow - Died
Strictly Amy - Living with cancer
Molly Mae - Split up with her boyfriend
Which one wins the NTA… absolute bollocks #ntaawards
https://x.com/jord9393/status/1965884420617023623?s=61
It'd be like me criticising others for being brash and not being modest and self-effacing
When very young Bob Worcester was one of those "voices of political facts" for me , like John Curttice. The apparently neutrally cheerful voice in in any political article. Also very strongly connected with the idea of MORI, in my memory somewhere. These were the authority bods.
Home Office minister Mike Tapp doubling down on the government's defence of Peter Mandelson over his close friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Bold.
Also Molly Mae's show was a lighter touch with a large audience than the other programs.
Maga is not centered on "Evangelical Christianity"; that is just a skin, and they have put it through a filter to exclude the parts that don't fit with an "America first" worldview. Recall how frightened and vicious Trump and Vance were when Bishop Budde reminded them that "mercy" and 'caring for the refugee' are Christian (and Evangelical Christian) values.
Evangelical Christianity has gone through a filter in Maga in the same way as the Dutch Reformed Church ended up justifying apartheid - the tradition of say Hegseth is similar, embracing women as subservient and so on. There' an 'intellectual' justification too, which is easier to fall for in the American context - Manifest Destiny and the rest of the self-justifying garbage, which is met even amongst liberals ("the USA is the best country in the world" etc).
Remember that Martin Luther King was an Evangelical Christian (Baptist Minister); it's never as simple as we would like.
On UK equivalents, I'd go for someone more intellectual than a street thug like Tommy Robinson, since Turning Point targets universities and young adults. Perhaps a better equivalent is Matt Gooodwin or someone attached to Natcon or in the Free Speech Union or anti-abortion circles. There's a whole zoo of Right-fringe organisations trying to be intellectual, but I don't know any figures who have made it.
I don't know eg a younger populist version of Douglas Murray, who might qualify. Most of the Evangelicals on the political right in the UK do not seem to go down that route, and pull back towards more useful emphases (eg Steve Barclay); they sort of self-triangulate and avoid the rabbit hole. That's partly to do with UK evanglicals being far more integrated.
Does Paul Marshall have any programmes for developing thought leaders?
It is heartbreaking that a young family has been robbed of a father and a husband.
We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear - there can be no justification for political violence.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1965896152345415805
While agreeing with the sentiments, what concern is it of the British Prime Minister that someone has been shot in America? Or is this the price our ambassador recommends for keeping tariffs at bay?
And that bit – We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear – might come back to haunt him.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/wine/english-fizz-international-wine-challenge-2025/
My commentary was more about the voters. I never said it was a surprise.
I wasn’t surprised Lineker won either given he’s moved to ITV with a new gameshow.
Glad you enjoyed the Molly Mae show thing. Z list celebrity relationship break ups aren’t my thing so I passed on it.
It's sad, but not, particularly, our story. Just another example of our satellite status.
https://x.com/barackobama/status/1965889591090753651?s=61
A good reminder that sometimes a large volume, slickly branded product can also be one of the best quality out there. Especially true in sparking wine.
Even Nyetimber’s top selling classic cuvée is better than a large proportion of more “artisanal” independent English sparklings. (Not that I would be putting that in my own marketing).
They’ve got a huge new planting over the hill from me on Chartham Downs.
It's notable that Thornberry and Ribero-Addy got just a handful of nominations, and those from the usual suspects. It doesn't look like either a major fight or a stitch up.
The Mandleson affair was very foolish of Starmer. I posted here on the folly of appointing him at the time. It was a job for a career diplomat who has been trained for it. This isn't America where ambassadorships are handed out as payback for political favours.
I had a really enjoyable Gusborne rose a few weeks back and not bank breaking either.
And until the USA went utterly batso in a way that couldn't be ignored, it didn't really matter.
And now BBC pundits saying they can’t sack Mandelson because it might upset Trump. Incredible.
However I note there are roughly 400 MPs most of whom havent a chance of a government post and Starmer does little to motivate the troops. So we either have 400 sheep bleating 4 leags good or there will be a pool of disquiet which eventually will make its voice heard.
I’ve yet to try (or visit) Domaine Evremond which I really must do as it’s also just over the hill from me.
Theyre short of one
That's not to say that some things haven't been welcome, but the move has been much too strong, and unexamined.
Imagine how it must now feel for the average French person, seeing the Anglosphere inexorably gaining ground over popular discourse. At first they resist, and eventually overcome by fatigue they succumb.
Former Labour frontbencher Andy McDonald says there is ‘widespread revulsion’ in the Labour Party about the Mandelson revelations and calls for him to go immediately: ‘There isn’t anybody in the Labour Party who is supporting Peter Mandelson today and the PM has to hear that’
We don’t yet know what motivated the person who shot and killed Charlie Kirk, but this kind of despicable violence has no place in our democracy. Michelle and I will be praying for Charlie’s family tonight, especially his wife Erika and their two young children.
I just find this weird.
The USA is an endemically violent country where they kill nearly 100k people per annum with their guns and their cars, including scores killed in school shootings.
Of course violence has a place in US democracy, because that is the society they chose to create. I don't want it to have a place, but Trump is deliberately seeking to create further a culture of violence and conflict - starting with his defence of hundreds of millions of guns loose in the society, never mind his animation of the violent attack on Congress, and the rest.
If I'm being straightforward, I'd say that Kirk reaped the whirlwind his own politics had helped seed.
To have public figures - even Obama - retreating into delusional schmaltz is not exactly going to help fix it. MSNBC have already sacked two reporters who went a bit too close to the bone - Matthew Dowd.
Helping someone down on their luck?
He should have said a greasy sportsman selling snack to youngsters
I'm deeply grateful to all the Labour members who have shared their support.
But I have decided to withdraw.
It has been a privilege to take part in this race with such brilliant women.
I will always be committed to this party and do everything I can to make it successful.
https://x.com/EmilyThornberry/status/1966033971437080652
I was expecting him to say Gary Glitter was our new ambassador to Russia
I was hoping she might make this an interesting contest.
Best comment seen so far, from Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks, a similar character to Kirk on the left of US politics.
https://x.com/cenkuygur/status/1966005802084479210
A while back I put out these rules for the internet. 1. When we disagree, we fight. 2. We have a beer afterward. 3. When we agree, we unite. I got a lot of flack, surprisingly, for the line about the beer. People would ask, "Oh yeah, would you have a beer with Charlie Kirk?!"
Well, I did. And I'm glad I did, because now I won't get to. Yes, Charlie and I disagreed a lot and about really important things. But somehow we didn't lose our humanity. We were still fellow Americans.
We can all choose to hate each other now. That's a normal, human reaction. We can choose to blame each other, and I'm sure we will, endlessly. Or we can defy the voices of division in the country, and have a beer together. This time, in grief.
If you really want to strike back at whoever did this, listen to each other instead of hating one another. They want us to hate each other. Treating one another as brothers and sisters, as a united America, would be a historic act of defiance.
Since I'm on the left, I'll go first. For everyone on the right, and most especially the Kirk family, I am so sorry for your loss. I share your grief and I want you to know our hearts are with you!
The idea that Labour go into the next election with a leader and deputy leader who are both lawyers would have scared me and led to another Labour landslide.
He is pouring more fuel on the flames . The rights view is political violence is okay if directed at Democrats.
Look, anyone who knows anything about Charlie Kirk knows the bloke was hardly Ghandi - he was a divisive character and there is irony in some of his past statements around gun control in the past (astonishingly callous stuff after a school shooting that a few deaths are a price worth paying for the freedom to bear arms). But now is hardly the time for senior figures to comment on those aspects; it would simply inflame tensions when that's the last thing that is needed.
I'd also draw a contrast with the intense relaxation in the USA about killing or abusing "others", whether putting innocent people in gulags or killing foreigners , as an illustration of the double standards at the heart of the culture, which cannot be healthy.
Miss Piggy trying to wrap herself in a St Georges flag would simply emphasis how far Labour have lost touch with their roots. Bootle nailed on so to speak.
We interrupt the shooting at a college to bring you news of a shooting at a high school.
This is America.
https://x.com/MindOfKB/status/1965879095692275849
Yes Nyetimeber is a very nice bottle of sparking wine.
There's a Leicester side to it too. Gary's dad had a fruit stall in Leicester market just a couple of hundred yards from where Walkers butchers is. In the late 1940s Walkers diversified into making crisps, and the rest is history. Walkers is still a major employer locally, and Gary's remembers his roots. A top bloke in my book.
*famously never getting carded for example.
But no words could say what must be said
For all the living and the dead
So on that day and in that place
The President sang Amazing Grace
The President sang Amazing Grace
He was not a brilliant administrator, he didn't get nearly enough done but he never seemed to lack the right words for the occasion.
Buon Giorno from the Barbargia of Sardinia!
In a normal society people don’t get shot for this , the USA is far from normal . Politicians saying this isn’t who we are is laughable .
Trump very clearly and publicly disassociated himself from Epstein before his first conviction, and is very unlikely to want to have anything to do with someone who’s just been exposed as a good friend and supporter well after he was imprisoned.
Starmer might want to see this, as his predecessor’s advisor once said, as a good day to bury bad news in the US.
Oh.
'For years, those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s worst mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today, and it must stop right now.'
It’s my preferred name for the drink - as I’ve said on here - and I’m glad the Telegraph has adopted it
Wilson said that he had spoken to Reeves last night at the FT drinks and is certain she understands the problem and has plans. He was remarkably comfortable with how easy it will be to encourage pension funds etc to invest in UK pharma/research by pulling a few levers.
Both were however also adamant that the UK needs to fix its pricing model with pharma companies as it’s going to drive them all away. Apparently we need to get the rebate the gov gets down to single figure % as it’s 23% currently and vastly higher than any other countries. This in itself I guess will cause other problems as it’s money I would assume goes back into the NHS which needs replacing.
The other problem with the high rebate was that a lot of drug companies were not releasing new drugs to the UK because the cost benefit wasn’t worth it for them and so UK patients are missing out.
This needs much more discussion by the likes of the opposition in order to make sure Reeves has to do something to fix it in the autumn budget. Maybe if Mandy quits, as he should, politicians could spend their time in this instead. Boring for us but ultimately better.
Nowadays, forwards are actually quite vulnerable to being carded as they don't time the perfect challenge in the way the best defenders can, but they are expected to give it a go.
I am sure that you remember my header in October '24 on how they are linked, but for others:
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/22/they-shall-take-up-serpents-god-guns-abortion-and-trump/
What are the chances that Trump will respond with a sensible clampdown on gun ownership??
As someone who supports a more diversified healthcare system in general, possibly the single biggest advantage of the NHS structure is the ability to negotiate in bulk with key suppliers.
Significant that now the minister sent out to defend the government this morning - Immigration Minister Mike Tapp - won’t defend UK Ambo to Washington Peter Mandelson staying in post in an interview with
@Emmabarnett
Edit: but it's all the more likely the Tories and Reform won't discuss it, for that very reason. So another bad sign.
The drug companies do not need to invest in the UK and if it’s a country where things are not made easy to do business, not attractive to highly paid senior staff, difficult to get planning to build and develop and then you are being made to hand back double what Germany gets back then it’s not great is it.
The NHS has quite a lot of power to.forve down its costs by being a near-monosopy. (Another reason why tiny hospital and school trusts may be costly.)
Drug companies have the power to locate their research bases wherever they want. Every action has a reaction.
The only question is where we want to pay. For the drugs or for the research bases.
If a new product doesn’t hit a suitable threshold for its proposed price then why should patients expect it. Fine to tweak the formula, but I am missing out on the government buying me a new gulfstream and that makes me very angry!
Pharma used to love the PPRS. It allows them to maintain prices on innovative new drugs at the cost of reducing prices on off patent products. They are just taking advantage of a perceived weak government
Last night on the immigration debate on Sky he wore a union jack tie so much a tradition for labour politicians
This morning, again on Sky, he was evasive about Mandelson being asked to attend FO affairs committee and even said everything is out now about Mandelson
I am very much in agreement with Labour mps and others that Mandelson has to go now
Epstein v Trump - cannot control Trump's position
Epstein v Andrew - ostracised by society
Epstein v Mandelson - cannot be moved because it may upset Trump
Since when have we lost our moral compass?
They also were both agitated by the lack of investment and what it ultimately costs the UK, the comparison of ARM was used in how much it was valued after it was bought out of the UK and that the UK benefited from about 1% of that uplift and they also brought up another new pharma that is now worth 10b but was a British venture with British research but all the financial benefit went to the US as there wasn’t the investment here.
To my mind these are two seperate - and important - issues.
Trump only disassociated himself from Epstein because of a duplicitous real estate deal. Trump may or may not have settled the score by informing the FBI on Epstein's activities.
I don't believe as you are implying Trump unhitched himself from Epstein because he was outraged at the child sex trafficking which to that point he had been unaware of.