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Life after Angela – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,671
edited 6:43AM in General
Life after Angela – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Here's the timetable for the Labour deputy leadership contest. Candidates need to get 80 MPs to nominate them by 5pm on Thursday. pic.twitter.com/dVkV5E0Lyy

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,674
    Question is, do we treat the results as a form guide for next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer retires early?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,035
    FPT, I think this is the bet to be on.
    Foxy said:

    I see that Phillipson topped the Survation Labour membership poll, and is pretty certain to qualify.

    There's not much value in the 1/2 on offer with Ladbrokes for Deputy, but much better value on her as next leader (14/1) and next PM at 33/1.

    I think it very likely that Starmer stands down before the GE and the DL steps up to be PM.

    Good speech to the TUC yesterday too. She is looking towards the membership vote.

    https://bsky.app/profile/tuc.org.uk/post/3lyfy6wurtc2t
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,656
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Question is, do we treat the results as a form guide for next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer retires early?

    Yes, see my final paragraph for why.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,538
    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,772
    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think there will be a significant response to this dangerous escalation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,009
    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Possibly only 1
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,789
    edited 6:58AM
    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    Agree. Otherwise we are going to have decades of constant nuisance drone incursions into NATO territory.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,857
    Morning all
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,010
    Just been looking up Lucy Powell: I see ahe went to Parrs Wood High. I think a poster on this board went there (was it OGH?)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,035
    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,206
    We await Trumps response !

    “I’m very angry blah blah blah …..”

    And will then do nothing .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,846
    edited 7:01AM
    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    My suggestion FPT was to bomb the Kerch Bridge, but taking out the Shahed factory also works.

    For sh!ts and giggles, get Trump to fly a fly a B-2 bomber over the top of Moscow, and have it take some photos of the Kremlin to send to Putin. We know their air defences are shot, and the same aircraft got into and out of Iran a couple of months back before their (Russian-made) radars even knew it was there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,035
    Scott_xP said:

    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Possibly only 1
    Yes, very possible. Thornbury might make the cut too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    Eabhal said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    Agree. Otherwise we are going to have decades of constant nuisance drone incursions into NATO territory.
    I think we should also imagine what might be the response, if this had happened after Russia was allowed to occupy Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    rottenborough said:

    Morning all

    Good morning, rotten.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    We should hack Russian state TV and flood it with footage of Putin having gay sex.
    Or just that picture of Farage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    edited 7:05AM
    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Can they not nominate more than one candidate ?

    It is, after all, an AV election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,035
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    We should hack Russian state TV and flood it with footage of Putin having gay sex non stop for a week.
    Putin can have gay sex non-stop for a week?

    I salute his stamina and indefatigability!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,035
    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Can they not nominate more than one candidate ?
    If it's via AV then presumably some transfer votes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,910
    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    My suggestion FPT was to bomb the Kerch Bridge, but taking out the Shahed factory also works.

    For sh!ts and giggles, get Trump to fly a fly a B2 bomber over the top of Moscow, and have it take some photos of the Kremlin to send to Putin. We know their air defences are shot, and the same aircraft got into and out of Iran a couple of months back before their (Russian-made) radars even knew it was there.
    I'm unsure how good a target the Kerch bridge is nowadays; AIUI the Russians have realised the vulnerability it gave them in their logistics, and have built other routes to supple Crimea. The Kerch Bridge going down would be an embuggeration for them, but not as existential to Crimea as it would have been a couple of years ago. Having said that, it makes an excellent political target for the Ukrainians.

    There have been several reports over the last year or so of Russia using NATO territories to fly drones over, before turning them to head back to Ukraine, avoiding the worst of the Ukrainian air defences. It'll be interesting to know if last night's events were unprecedented, or if the Poles have just had enough.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,800
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    We should hack Russian state TV and flood it with footage of Putin having gay sex.
    Or just that picture of Farage.
    There are limits, old chap.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Can they not nominate more than one candidate ?
    If it's via AV then presumably some transfer votes.
    Only if their preferred second preference has already been nominated ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,789
    edited 7:10AM
    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    How? They've just attacked NATO territory.

    The problem is that your respone is always going to the sensible and rational one in the short term, but it just induces Russia to keep pushing a little further. At what point will we actually sting back? The murder of a UK citizen on UK soil? The bombing of the British Council? Attack on NATO? An invasion of Estonia? An invasion of northern Norway?

    For me, the correct response would be a comprehensive but time-limited assault on Russian assets inside 2014 border Ukraine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    nico67 said:

    We await Trumps response !

    “I’m very angry blah blah blah …..”

    And will then do nothing .

    Good morning

    If ever there is a moment in time that Europe needs to wake up and realise they cannot rely on the US to come to their assistance, it is now

    All the embarrassing fawning over Trump, not least by Mark Rutte of NATO, only proves western leaders need to keep their dignity, ignore Trump, and act together with the strongest of reaction
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,716
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Can they not nominate more than one candidate ?
    If it's via AV then presumably some transfer votes.
    Votes, maybe, but how do nominations work?

    What happens to the nominations currently attached to no-hopers might be very important for Thornberry's chances of getting past 80.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Possibly only 1
    Yes, very possible. Thornbury might make the cut too.
    Thornberry
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    Give Ukraine a score or so of Taurus missiles to take out the Kerch bridge.
    And a squadron of Gripens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    nico67 said:

    We await Trumps response !

    “I’m very angry blah blah blah …..”

    And will then do nothing .

    Yes.
    But what will Europe do ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,846
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    My suggestion FPT was to bomb the Kerch Bridge, but taking out the Shahed factory also works.

    For sh!ts and giggles, get Trump to fly a fly a B2 bomber over the top of Moscow, and have it take some photos of the Kremlin to send to Putin. We know their air defences are shot, and the same aircraft got into and out of Iran a couple of months back before their (Russian-made) radars even knew it was there.
    I'm unsure how good a target the Kerch bridge is nowadays; AIUI the Russians have realised the vulnerability it gave them in their logistics, and have built other routes to supple Crimea. The Kerch Bridge going down would be an embuggeration for them, but not as existential to Crimea as it would have been a couple of years ago. Having said that, it makes an excellent political target for the Ukrainians.

    There have been several reports over the last year or so of Russia using NATO territories to fly drones over, before turning them to head back to Ukraine, avoiding the worst of the Ukrainian air defences. It'll be interesting to know if last night's events were unprecedented, or if the Poles have just had enough.
    It’s not quite as important logistically as it was at the start of the war, but it’s still a very busy route and a massively symbolic target, probably the most symbolic target short of hitting Moscow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,857
    Cookie said:

    Just been looking up Lucy Powell: I see ahe went to Parrs Wood High. I think a poster on this board went there (was it OGH?)

    I have a few £ on Powell at 3/1
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,160
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    How? They've just attacked NATO territory.

    The problem is that your respone is always going to the sensible and rational one in the short term, but it just induces Russia to keep pushing a little further. At what point will we actually sting back? The murder of a UK citizen on UK soil? The bombing of the British Council? Attack on NATO? An invasion of Estonia? An invasion of northern Norway?

    For me, the correct response would be a comprehensive but time-limited assault on Russian assets inside 2014 border Ukraine.
    I can't imagine there will be an immediate kinetic response. Just some weasel words, and a threat about what will happen next time. Which we don't intend to carry out. Trump will say he isn't happy and give Russia two weeks to stop attacking Poland.

    We shouldn't say anything. Just make some things explode, and then quaintly lie about it not being us.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,656
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    We should hack Russian state TV and flood it with footage of Putin having gay sex.
    Or just that picture of Farage.
    This picture?

    Picture has been removed due to the Online Safety Act.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,706
    Stuartinromford said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    There are only enough labour MPs for 4 nominations max. Are the 7 left wing MPs still suspended?
    I can see there being only 3 that make the cut, possibly only 2.

    Can they not nominate more than one candidate ?
    If it's via AV then presumably some transfer votes.
    Votes, maybe, but how do nominations work?

    What happens to the nominations currently attached to no-hopers might be very important for Thornberry's chances of getting past 80.
    How do 'CLP and affiliate nominations' work?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    What happened last night in Poland is the result of several years of weak NATO responses to shaheds entering their airspace. And even now Poland is having a weak response, describing it as ‘drone like objects’ or whatever. Would it kill people to just be honest?
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1965656972990259572

    Turkey showed the way to deal with this when it shot down the Russian jet that entered its airspace.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    edited 7:18AM
    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,206
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    And this was known before he was made ambassador. Quite unbelievable.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,789
    edited 7:22AM
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    Another good reason for WWIII is to get this out of the news.

    /s obviously
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    And this was known before he was made ambassador. Quite unbelievable.
    Yes, "breaking" is the most overused and most inaccurate tag added to news stories.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,010
    rottenborough said:

    Cookie said:

    Just been looking up Lucy Powell: I see ahe went to Parrs Wood High. I think a poster on this board went there (was it OGH?)

    I have a few £ on Powell at 3/1
    Good luck - Powell is my preferred candidate but sadly I don't think 3/1 great value. Noting TSE's logic she may be the most transfer-friendly - but my expectation is that in a final three she will come third with Phillipson and someone on the left (Thornberry?) as the last two.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,947
    The coalition of the unwilling pearl clutchers had a super clutchy night then as Russia just did what it wants.
    Strongly worded fax NOW
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,674
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    My suggestion FPT was to bomb the Kerch Bridge, but taking out the Shahed factory also works.

    For sh!ts and giggles, get Trump to fly a fly a B2 bomber over the top of Moscow, and have it take some photos of the Kremlin to send to Putin. We know their air defences are shot, and the same aircraft got into and out of Iran a couple of months back before their (Russian-made) radars even knew it was there.
    I'm unsure how good a target the Kerch bridge is nowadays; AIUI the Russians have realised the vulnerability it gave them in their logistics, and have built other routes to supple Crimea. The Kerch Bridge going down would be an embuggeration for them, but not as existential to Crimea as it would have been a couple of years ago. Having said that, it makes an excellent political target for the Ukrainians.

    There have been several reports over the last year or so of Russia using NATO territories to fly drones over, before turning them to head back to Ukraine, avoiding the worst of the Ukrainian air defences. It'll be interesting to know if last night's events were unprecedented, or if the Poles have just had enough.
    There are three reasons for not destroying the Kerch Bridge: first, it is unnecessary as Ukraine has already shown it can hit the bridge more or less at will, making it, as you say, too dangerous for Russian army supply lines.

    Second, it wastes a lot of resources and you look silly if you fail. Cf Britain going to inordinate lengths to sink the Tirpitz when that ship was already confined to the Norwegian fjords.

    Third, it probably suits Ukraine quite nicely that Russian soldiers and civilians in Crimea have an easy route to retreat or return to Russia. This will make for easier recapture than having to fight street by street against an enemy trapped in place and thus literally fighting for their lives. Again, the end of the second world war provides a cautionary tale.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,991
    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    It's clear that NATO has lost significant deterrence value against Russia. That deterrence needs to be re-established, and that's why you need a significant public military response.

    It has to be clear to Russia that attacking Poland was a mistake that they don't want to repeat.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,947
    edited 7:26AM
    More in Common 5 to 8 Sept

    Ref 32 (+1)
    Lab 21 (=)
    Con 18 (=)
    LD 13 (=)
    Grn 8 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3 (-3)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    And this was known before he was made ambassador. Quite unbelievable.
    Yes, "breaking" is the most overused and most inaccurate tag added to news stories.
    It seems he has made an overnight statement to the Sun admitting he stayed at Epstein's home whilst Epstein was in prison

    Sky are expecting further details but confirm Epstein's victims are demanding his resignation
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,857
    Cookie said:

    rottenborough said:

    Cookie said:

    Just been looking up Lucy Powell: I see ahe went to Parrs Wood High. I think a poster on this board went there (was it OGH?)

    I have a few £ on Powell at 3/1
    Good luck - Powell is my preferred candidate but sadly I don't think 3/1 great value. Noting TSE's logic she may be the most transfer-friendly - but my expectation is that in a final three she will come third with Phillipson and someone on the left (Thornberry?) as the last two.
    They desperately need a really good communicator who can tell the 'story' of the Starmer project and so on that logic I plumped for Powell as she is the worst of the likely three or four candidates on comms and so the membership will elect her.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,991
    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    My suggestion FPT was to bomb the Kerch Bridge, but taking out the Shahed factory also works.

    For sh!ts and giggles, get Trump to fly a fly a B-2 bomber over the top of Moscow, and have it take some photos of the Kremlin to send to Putin. We know their air defences are shot, and the same aircraft got into and out of Iran a couple of months back before their (Russian-made) radars even knew it was there.
    The drone factory is better because it ties the response directly into Russia's actions. Attack NATO with drones -> lose your drone factory. Makes it really clear what the response would be to attacking NATO with missiles, etc.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,698
    Good morning all.

    I just don't see a direct attack on Russia - we do not have the air defence bubble.

    In longer term plans, is anyone making sloe gin of sloe jam this year? It's time for sloes and nearly bilberries. I've re-found a recipe from my favourite source :smile: . It's time to break out the berry rake.

    https://www.eatweeds.co.uk/sloe-gin-recipe

    BBC has sloe jam.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,316
    edited 7:36AM
    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,242
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    And this was known before he was made ambassador. Quite unbelievable.
    Yes, "breaking" is the most overused and most inaccurate tag added to news stories.
    It seems he has made an overnight statement to the Sun admitting he stayed at Epstein's home whilst Epstein was in prison

    Sky are expecting further details but confirm Epstein's victims are demanding his resignation
    The only shred of comfort for Mandelson is that he’s only the second worst British ambassador to the US after the utterly embarrassing cliché riddled abomination of the Brit Ambassador in The West Wing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,082
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    I think you have got this BigG. Mandy is toast. Curries all 'round.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    NATO says it is not treating drone incursion as an attack, but others European countries say it was

    What a mess if NATO is so out of step with some of its members

    Then Mark Rutte heads up NATO and simply, he does not fill me with any confidence
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,991
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    How? They've just attacked NATO territory.

    The problem is that your respone is always going to the sensible and rational one in the short term, but it just induces Russia to keep pushing a little further. At what point will we actually sting back? The murder of a UK citizen on UK soil? The bombing of the British Council? Attack on NATO? An invasion of Estonia? An invasion of northern Norway?

    For me, the correct response would be a comprehensive but time-limited assault on Russian assets inside 2014 border Ukraine.
    That has the advantage of limiting the response to Ukrainian territory, and not hitting targets inside Russia, but there's a risk that Russia decides NATO is now a full participant in the war.

    In any case, the important thing is that there are real consequences for Russia so that they don't repeat it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    I think you have got this BigG. Mandy is toast. Curries all 'round.
    I am only reporting the news, others will decide on Mandelson
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,947
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NATO says it is not treating drone incursion as an attack, but others European countries say it was

    What a mess if NATO is so out of step with some of its members

    Then Mark Rutte heads up NATO and simply, he does not fill me with any confidence

    Coalition of the unwilling.
    Boots on the ground my arse
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,421
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    The Mandelson strategy is to maximise rather than minimise his mistake and shame; or so it seemed on R4 Today. He did this very well. He remains a very fine operator. Probably he has to go, but a bit of me isn't sure.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,603
    Cookie said:

    Just been looking up Lucy Powell: I see ahe went to Parrs Wood High. I think a poster on this board went there (was it OGH?)

    Dunno about that. I do know it replaced Eton after the election as the school of most Cabinet Ministers.
    Her and Lisa Nandy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    Sky have a big programme on Immigration tonight hosted by Trevor Phillips and Sam Coates has a yougov poll showing 70% think immigration is too high
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,792
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    And this was known before he was made ambassador. Quite unbelievable.
    Yes, I suspect Keir has made an error here in assuming this baggage wouldn't come up again.

    Will Trump show solidarity with his fellow Epstein party goer?

    Reputedly the second runner was George Osborne!

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,206
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky have a big programme on Immigration tonight hosted by Trevor Phillips and Sam Coates has a yougov poll showing 70% think immigration is too high

    It’s a self fulfilling prophecy. The media obsession on the boats for months will mean more think that so it feeds itself .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,316
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    I think you have got this BigG. Mandy is toast. Curries all 'round.
    Perhaps Mandelson can resign and in an act of contrition and restitution bring down Trump as he goes.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,792
    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    Indeed. We'd be in a much better place on Gaza also if Harris had won.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,789
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    My suggestion FPT was to bomb the Kerch Bridge, but taking out the Shahed factory also works.

    For sh!ts and giggles, get Trump to fly a fly a B-2 bomber over the top of Moscow, and have it take some photos of the Kremlin to send to Putin. We know their air defences are shot, and the same aircraft got into and out of Iran a couple of months back before their (Russian-made) radars even knew it was there.
    Not sure you've quite appreciated which side Trump is on, yet.
    Funny how that much celebrated Alaska conference has led to... an attack on Poland. To use the Trumpist logic - wouldn't have happened under Biden.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,512
    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989

    Poland President Mr Nawrocki

    Unprecedented moment in NATO history
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    Indeed. We'd be in a much better place on Gaza also if Harris had won.
    If only Biden had stood down much earlier maybe we would not have seen Trump arrive and a catastrophic change in the world order

    Unfortunately even if Trump goes I am not at all sure how stability is restored
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,603
    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    Are OFSTED aware of this?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,698
    For terminal nerds:

    1 - RefUK Branch Rules
    https://bralreform.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/reform_uk_branch_rules.pdf
    2 - RefUK Constitution
    https://reformuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Reform_UK_Constitution.pdf

    (I'm not commenting beyond noting that it seems quite centralised, as I have only occasionally dipped into these.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,316
    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    Yep. He's a massive problem but to an extent is only catalysing what was festering anyway - Europe's lack of strength and cohesion on defence.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,242
    Christ alive, Tony Robinson/Baldrick pimping his new book on Today about Alfred the Great says that people think there is a pure line of Englishness but that Alfred made up this idea of Englishness Alfred and “his mates” were all German and then they go on to discuss the importance of accuracy.

    Only a minority of idiots think that the English have some purebred status and Alfred and his mates weren’t German.

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,538
    rkrkrk said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    Breaking news

    'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

    And this was known before he was made ambassador. Quite unbelievable.
    Yes, I suspect Keir has made an error here in assuming this baggage wouldn't come up again.

    Will Trump show solidarity with his fellow Epstein party goer?

    Reputedly the second runner was George Osborne!

    Some seriously bad decision-making going on when Osborne would have been the safe choice for a Labour govt appointment. The danger of trying to cozy up to Trump by appointing someone who was friendly with him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,129
    edited 8:07AM
    Whether Phillipson, Powell or whoever wins the Labour deputy leadership it is basically a non job.

    The winner will not be Deputy PM, that will still be Lammy who replaced Rayner in the role, nor will they even be Labour Party chair.

    So as Blunkett said what exactly is the point of being Labour Deputy Leader in government other than a cheerleader for members and the provinces?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,242
    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    No, the way to deal with a bully is to smear their pants with deep heat whilst they are playing games and then when they are getting dressed to go back to lessons they are left with a burning arsehole and ballsack and start crying whilst rubbing their crotch and arse furiously in front of everyone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NATO says it is not treating drone incursion as an attack, but others European countries say it was

    What a mess if NATO is so out of step with some of its members

    Then Mark Rutte heads up NATO and simply, he does not fill me with any confidence

    That is because of Trump - and because Rutte is not so much the "Trump whisperer" that he likes to style himself, but rather a Trump fluffer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    boulay said:

    Christ alive, Tony Robinson/Baldrick pimping his new book on Today about Alfred the Great says that people think there is a pure line of Englishness but that Alfred made up this idea of Englishness Alfred and “his mates” were all German and then they go on to discuss the importance of accuracy.

    Only a minority of idiots think that the English have some purebred status and Alfred and his mates weren’t German.

    It is a cunning plan to sell more books.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,129
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    Indeed. We'd be in a much better place on Gaza also if Harris had won.
    If only Biden had stood down much earlier maybe we would not have seen Trump arrive and a catastrophic change in the world order

    Unfortunately even if Trump goes I am not at all sure how stability is restored
    Biden beat Trump, Harris was defeated by Trump.

    Netanyahu would have ignored Harris anyway
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,666
    HYUFD said:

    Whether Phillipson, Powell or whoever wins the Labour deputy leadership it is basically a non job.

    The winner will not be Deputy PM, that will still be Lammy who replaced Rayner in the role, nor will they even be Labour Party chair.

    So as Blunkett said what exactly is the point of being Labour Deputy Leader in government other than a cheerleader for members and the provinces?

    I suspect that there is a job to be done; represent the members to the higher echelons of power. In this situation I suspect Powell would be a better choice, although Phillipson, it might be argued, can put the case in Cabinet.
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 109
    Corbyn, it should be noted, was twice elected as Labour leader because he got the bulk of the soft left (which is the swing bloc in Labour internal contests). I also wouldn't bet against the most 'left-wing' candidate given that it could be Lucy Powell (who is very different from Corbyn and is probably close to the median voter in this contest).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,129
    MattW said:

    For terminal nerds:

    1 - RefUK Branch Rules
    https://bralreform.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/reform_uk_branch_rules.pdf
    2 - RefUK Constitution
    https://reformuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Reform_UK_Constitution.pdf

    (I'm not commenting beyond noting that it seems quite centralised, as I have only occasionally dipped into these.)

    Or in other words what Nigel says goes and if you dislike it, there is the door
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,316
    boulay said:

    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    No, the way to deal with a bully is to smear their pants with deep heat whilst they are playing games and then when they are getting dressed to go back to lessons they are left with a burning arsehole and ballsack and start crying whilst rubbing their crotch and arse furiously in front of everyone.
    That sounds more like the actions *of* a bully.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,959
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky have a big programme on Immigration tonight hosted by Trevor Phillips and Sam Coates has a yougov poll showing 70% think immigration is too high

    To which the PB solution is to tell them they are all wrong and racist.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,959
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    For terminal nerds:

    1 - RefUK Branch Rules
    https://bralreform.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/reform_uk_branch_rules.pdf
    2 - RefUK Constitution
    https://reformuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Reform_UK_Constitution.pdf

    (I'm not commenting beyond noting that it seems quite centralised, as I have only occasionally dipped into these.)

    Or in other words what Nigel says goes and if you dislike it, there is the door
    A vanity project. Like most of his other vehicles.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,974
    edited 8:13AM
    LostPassword said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

    Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.
    How? They've just attacked NATO territory.

    The problem is that your respone is always going to the sensible and rational one in the short term, but it just induces Russia to keep pushing a little further. At what point will we actually sting back? The murder of a UK citizen on UK soil? The bombing of the British Council? Attack on NATO? An invasion of Estonia? An invasion of northern Norway?

    For me, the correct response would be a comprehensive but time-limited assault on Russian assets inside 2014 border Ukraine.
    That has the advantage of limiting the response to Ukrainian territory, and not hitting targets inside Russia, but there's a risk that Russia decides NATO is now a full participant in the war.

    In any case, the important thing is that there are real consequences for Russia so that they don't repeat it.
    The logical response is not to escalate, but instead to give Ukraine the weaponry it needs to defeat the invasion.
    That is not impossible; its rather a matter of the will to do it, and the willingness to spend what it will cost.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,989
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    Indeed. We'd be in a much better place on Gaza also if Harris had won.
    If only Biden had stood down much earlier maybe we would not have seen Trump arrive and a catastrophic change in the world order

    Unfortunately even if Trump goes I am not at all sure how stability is restored
    Biden beat Trump, Harris was defeated by Trump.

    Netanyahu would have ignored Harris anyway
    No idea what you are saying

    This is not about Netanyahu but Russia's drone attack on Poland, NATO and European countries disagreement, and the way Trump has upended the world order
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,242
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    No, the way to deal with a bully is to smear their pants with deep heat whilst they are playing games and then when they are getting dressed to go back to lessons they are left with a burning arsehole and ballsack and start crying whilst rubbing their crotch and arse furiously in front of everyone.
    That sounds more like the actions *of* a bully.
    It’s something someone can do without the bully noticing and issuing a beating which results in the bully being humiliated and in pain.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,396
    boulay said:

    Christ alive, Tony Robinson/Baldrick pimping his new book on Today about Alfred the Great says that people think there is a pure line of Englishness but that Alfred made up this idea of Englishness Alfred and “his mates” were all German and then they go on to discuss the importance of accuracy.

    Only a minority of idiots think that the English have some purebred status and Alfred and his mates weren’t German.

    GermanIC thiough is entirely correct, intermarriage aside. Presumably the -ic was lost somewhere along the line.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,242
    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    Christ alive, Tony Robinson/Baldrick pimping his new book on Today about Alfred the Great says that people think there is a pure line of Englishness but that Alfred made up this idea of Englishness Alfred and “his mates” were all German and then they go on to discuss the importance of accuracy.

    Only a minority of idiots think that the English have some purebred status and Alfred and his mates weren’t German.

    It is a cunning plan to sell more books.
    I guess those giant Turnips don’t buy themselves.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,017
    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    Cheers to that. An entertaining poscast on the worlds biggest bully.......

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apazx1mFURE
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,396
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    No, the way to deal with a bully is to smear their pants with deep heat whilst they are playing games and then when they are getting dressed to go back to lessons they are left with a burning arsehole and ballsack and start crying whilst rubbing their crotch and arse furiously in front of everyone.
    That sounds more like the actions *of* a bully.
    It’s something someone can do without the bully noticing and issuing a beating which results in the bully being humiliated and in pain.
    So someone else probably gets the punishment beating?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,087
    Can't see past Phillipson to be perfectly frank.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,032
    boulay said:

    Christ alive, Tony Robinson/Baldrick pimping his new book on Today about Alfred the Great says that people think there is a pure line of Englishness but that Alfred made up this idea of Englishness Alfred and “his mates” were all German and then they go on to discuss the importance of accuracy.

    Only a minority of idiots think that the English have some purebred status and Alfred and his mates weren’t German.

    Perhaps prominent Labour supporter Tony Robinson has a narrative he'd like to push, perish the thought.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,129
    edited 8:17AM
    LostPassword said:

    I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

    If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

    If the Poles want to send six drones into Russian airspace in response that would be up to them, anything else would be a disproportionate escalation
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,800
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

    It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

    We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.
    The way to deal with a bully is to smack him in the face. We learn that at primary school.
    Are OFSTED aware of this?
    They believe in bullying the staff…
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,082
    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    Poland President Mr Nawrocki

    Unprecedented moment in NATO history

    Just imagine if Britain's Prime Minister had an admiration for Putin and had blamed Ukraine for starting the war. I would be interested to hear what this potential future Prime Minister makes of the incursion into Poland.
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