Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Thornberry won't win. Her constituency is adjacent to Starmer's - not a good look to have a North London Leader and Deputy.
It will be Phillipson or McGovern, I think. Powell is too dull, and the other two can't get enough MP votes.
She is also married to a peer of the realm and couldn't be more removed from the hoi polloi if she married Prince Andrew. Her historic disapproval of England flags on houses also suggests she is not best placed to counter the flag party that is reform.
I don't believe so (depending on definition) - he is a Lord Justice of Appeal.
Oops, yes. Should say knight of the realm, a Lord Justice too.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
It is an important part of growing up – discovering that your friends' families do things ever so slightly differently from yours. They might have strawberry rather than raspberry jam with their rice, for example.
Sometimes different and wrong, though. I was served a pasta dish at a friend's house once where the bacon pieces had not had the rind cut off. Not the fat, the rind.
The rind is the best bit, surely?
Cooked right a bit of crispy but not burned rind is heaven
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Nice thinking, ensuring the little sponger isn’t going to be wanting to come back for decent grub in the future.
Oi! I cooked it! There were vegetables and other side dishes!
(Though naturally enough, Mrs J's teleconference ended just as the food was ready, so she served up and got the plaudits for the food. Though as a pescetarian, she did not partake of the chicken.)
Basmati, arborio, wild, sticky, jasmine or brown?
I only use two types of rice: basmati for side dishes, and arborio for risottos. Though I haven't made a risotto for a few months, as our son hates them. They're a meal to make when he's elsewhere. I've used brown rice once or twice, and never used Jasmine rice (aside from out of a Ben's Original packet)
So 73% do of 18 to 24s do NOT want to abolish the monarchy and only 27% do in other words, once you read past the TSE spin
Your arithmetic is off. Not to mention your comprehension and logic. The correct balanced figures are 23 and 27 respectively, once your spin is dumped in the wpb.
Or in other words less than a third of 16s and 17s want to abolish the monarchy
Order these carbs by preference: bread, potato, pasta, rice.
I mean, why eat rice if you don't have to?
Taters, bread, pasta, rice As a child i had the first two almost every day, spaghetti occasionally and the first rice I had was at 18 at a dinner hosted by my A level English teacher for all the English A level students post exams. Also my first curry. My sister had, a few years before, got my mum to do rice but me and mum weren't having that muck on our plates
I just find it hard to imagine Britain as a Republic.
Not even a banana republic?
Britain as a republic is not so hard to imagine. I agree it's hard to think of the United Kingdom as a republic.
One banana, two banana, Three banana four, four bananas make a bunch and so do many more.
Loved the Banana Splits. Real part of my childhood.
Banana split in one of those Italian ice cream parlours by the seaside. There was a wonderful one in Dunbar, but I remember North Berwick and Portobello too.
Most seem to have gone.
Nardini’s in Largs still sell them. Go west, young man.
The odds of picking a good apple from either bag don't change based on the information presented.
Again, if I pick an apple from either bag and show it to you, when I put it back your odds of picking a good apple have not changed.
This is where it differs from the Monty Hall problem where 1 door is eliminated.
In this game the odds are fixed, and don't change. Both boys got lucky.
The question for you is, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?
The plausible combinations outside the bag gives you the odds. picking blindfolded from the tree odds are 50/50.
From bag A the odds are 66%, bag B 62.5% were there bag C with 1 known and 4 unknown 60%, bag alpha with 1 known and 1 unknown 75%.
Basically no matter how you phrase the question there is a bag with 1 good apple and x-1 apples of unknown status in it the odds of picking a good apple is x+1/2x where x is the number of apples in the bag
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Nice thinking, ensuring the little sponger isn’t going to be wanting to come back for decent grub in the future.
Oi! I cooked it! There were vegetables and other side dishes!
(Though naturally enough, Mrs J's teleconference ended just as the food was ready, so she served up and got the plaudits for the food. Though as a pescetarian, she did not partake of the chicken.)
Basmati, arborio, wild, sticky, jasmine or brown?
I only use two types of rice: basmati for side dishes, and arborio for risottos. Though I haven't made a risotto for a few months, as our son hates them. They're a meal to make when he's elsewhere. I've used brown rice once or twice, and never used Jasmine rice (aside from out of a Ben's Original packet)
Interesting (including the pasta start to the cooking). I love jasmine rice with stirfry - Mrs C and I once scored a big sack of superb jasmine rice from one of those inner city Chinese supermarkets that smell of everything from dried mushrooms onwards. Never had one so good since, but Sainsburys is sort of OK. I need to explore more.
Sticky rice is the stuff one gets in Chimese dim sum stuffed vine leaves. I've never used it in cooking myself.
So 73% do of 18 to 24s do NOT want to abolish the monarchy and only 27% do in other words, once you read past the TSE spin
Your arithmetic is off. Not to mention your comprehension and logic. The correct balanced figures are 23 and 27 respectively, once your spin is dumped in the wpb.
Or in other words less than a third of 16s and 17s want to abolish the monarchy
Which is more than the proportion who want to keep it.
Order these carbs by preference: bread, potato, pasta, rice.
I mean, why eat rice if you don't have to?
Taters, bread, pasta, rice As a child i had the first two almost every day, spaghetti occasionally and the first rice I had was at 18 at a dinner hosted by my A level English teacher for all the English A level students post exams. Also my first curry. My sister had, a few years before, got my mum to do rice but me and mum weren't having that muck on our plates
In those days rice was only used for rice pudding
Still is here (ground rice, hard to find now). Yum, with home made jam or stewed blackcurrants from the garden.
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
This is clearly a bit like the classic probability question - the Monty Hall. Clearly some will think that as the apples were initially randomly chosen and you then randomly pick one it doesn't matter. But if course we know that some possibilities no longer exist. At least one of bag A is good (no holes) ruling out then all being bad. And similarly for bag B they are not all bad. The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
I just find it hard to imagine Britain as a Republic.
Well, it was at one point, it just wasn't a great success.
It went so badly that staunch Republican supporters couldn't think of a better way forward than inviting back the son of the monarch they'd executed. And shuffling about awkwardly staring at their feet while mumbling an apology.
Kinda embarrassing really.
That's true. And the Stuarts still made a mess the second time round. Albeit doing one or two useful things like promoting the Royal Navy (following on from the Commonwealth) (although letting it get burnt/captured) and helping establish the Royal Society of London.
Sure, but arguing about the royals cocking things up in the 17th century seems to ignore the modern reality that they don't have any power these days.
KCIII has failed to be the toxic monarch republicans expected and hoped for because a modern monarch doesn't have to do anything except turn up. If someone like Charles - who let's face it, it's both a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot - can manage not to bungle it, then it's hard to see the circumstances in which the British public would turn against the monarchy.
He isn't the toxic monarch I expected. I'm not sure I'd have used the phrase "a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot" but it certainly wasn't obvious before he took over what positive qualities he would bring to the role to make us like the monarchy - but I think you are right in that the bar is actually rather lower than we imagined. But it isn't infinitely lower. Low though the bar is, it's easy to imagine a monarch who fails to meet it - just look at his brother or his younger son.
KCIII was raising issues of affordability in housing in the 1980s - and pushed the Crown Estate to take action. Then got into building planned towns before that became fashionable.
He was big into environmentalism when that got you laughed at. See also sustainable agriculture…
He also raised issues of race before became fashionable - stuff like embarrassing the Army as to why there were no black soldiers in the guards. Reached out to other faiths etc.
On a number of big issues he was way ahead of the curve.
How many homeless people is he housing in his umpteen palaces???
He got the Crown Estate, when some land from the old Royal Mint was no longer needed, to lend it to a housing association to build flats. The deal was that they (the housing association) couldn’t sell or charge rent against 40% of the value of the property (land value). Shared equity, without rent on the bit you didn’t own. You could rent the other 60% and buy in tranches of 10%.
This kept prices down - quite a few were owned by local people, even into the early 2000s - when flats around there were £500k. A 2 bed there went for £60k
Order these carbs by preference: bread, potato, pasta, rice.
I mean, why eat rice if you don't have to?
Taters, bread, pasta, rice As a child i had the first two almost every day, spaghetti occasionally and the first rice I had was at 18 at a dinner hosted by my A level English teacher for all the English A level students post exams. Also my first curry. My sister had, a few years before, got my mum to do rice but me and mum weren't having that muck on our plates
Phillipson undoubtedly thinks she has it in the bag. But having a chat and confidence discussion with your 80 mates isn't necessarily going to give you quite the outcome you imagined.
Thornberry probably has a more realistic assessment of her own chances.
Powell I find impossible to judge. Her support seems thin, but Burnham seems to want her.
The other silly people are just silly, although as its Labour not to be entirely discounted.
Corbyn was “just silly” in 2015. Then the membership went and elected him.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
I was 18 before I had rice
When I was a kid, every week my mum would cook some concoction with lentils in it.
As a result, I *never* cook with lentils...
As for rice: it is simple to cook, but easy to muck up. We do it the Turkish way: fry some orzo in butter before adding the rice and water.
I like lentils tbf, and split peas. Nice bit of pease pudding. Mum was an extremely traditional English cook - and a little of thrift dishes as we weren't ever so well off. Leftover meals, bubble and squeak etc etc and plenty Yorkshires to fill you up with roasts. Suet pudding of savory and sweet kinds, proper Norfolk dumplings and simple sinkers too. Yum. But baking was where my mums family all excelled and excel, my great grandma was in service to the local big families (Gurneys etc), a senior member of various kitchens and through her the female members of my clan all bake like its second nature. As do I now tbf
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
This is clearly a bit like the classic probability question - the Monty Hall. Clearly some will think that as the apples were initially randomly chosen and you then randomly pick one it doesn't matter. But if course we know that some possibilities no longer exist. At least one of bag A is good (no holes) ruling out then all being bad. And similarly for bag B they are not all bad. The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
In Monty Hall (as noted upthread) the probabilities change during the game.
In this puzzle the probabilities are fixed by the number of apples in each bag.
Picking a good one and putting it back doesn't change the probability of you picking a good one
Crucially in Monty Hall the bad door is NOT put back into the bag...
Order these carbs by preference: bread, potato, pasta, rice.
I mean, why eat rice if you don't have to?
Taters, bread, pasta, rice As a child i had the first two almost every day, spaghetti occasionally and the first rice I had was at 18 at a dinner hosted by my A level English teacher for all the English A level students post exams. Also my first curry. My sister had, a few years before, got my mum to do rice but me and mum weren't having that muck on our plates
In those days rice was only used for rice pudding
Still is here (ground rice, hard to find now). Yum, with home made jam or stewed blackcurrants from the garden.
for sure , even peach slices or rhubarb. though nowadays we use it a lot , basmati , jasmine and risotto
The Apple Puzzle On a tree, half of the apples have holes made by wasps. • One boy picked 3 apples at random and said “at least one of mine has no holes.” • Another boy picked 4 apples similarly. He showed me one of them at random, and it had no holes. He put it back. If you may take just one apple from either boy’s bag, from which boy do you have the better chance of picking an apple without holes?
Let's number the apples physically, so child A has apples numbered 1-3, child B has apples numbered 1-4.
We will designated G as good, B as bad
Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 12/24 to 12/21 by removing the 3 bads option = 57.1%
We have not used the numbers.
Child B removes 1 apple from the bag, at random, and finds it is good. For the sake of argument we'll say apple 1 has been removed, though it works exactly the same if apples 2 or 3 or 4 are found to be good.
This rules in (at equal probability): Gggg, gggb, ggbg, gbgg, ggbb, gbgb, gbbg, gbbb
(Notice how much more has been ruled out by saying apple #1 of the 4 is good rather than one of the three apples is good)
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 32/64 to 20/32 by removing all the bad apple #1 options) = 62.5%
The original wording didnt state that the second apple was chosen at random (may allude to it, but unclear), nor the proportion of good or bad apples. Hence the long and confusing discussion as some will still be answering a different interpretation if they didnt see the updated wording.
"All this talk about polling reminds me of an intriguing puzzle I devised from recent experiences with wasp-damaged apples. Anyone who is into the difficulties of polling and sampling may find it interesting. Please post your answers but don't spoil the fun by giving any reasoning or explanation yet: Two children pick apples from the same wasp-busy tree. Child A picks 3 apples and says: “At least one of mine has no wasp holes.” Child B picks 4 apples and shows you one that is definitely hole-free, then puts it back in the bag. You may take one apple from one child’s bag. From which bag do you have the better chance of getting an apple without holes — A’s or B’s?"
My management experience would make me always pick boy B. Any statement such as boy A's "at least one of mine is good" can be fairly safely interpreted as "all my others are rotten".
Boy B is just picking at random, so nothing much can be inferred about his other three apples from what shows you.
The only time this logic is flawed is when the chances of a good apple are low enough that it's very likely Boy B has three duds and a good apple, at which point picking Boy A is a 33% chance of getting a good apple and Boy B is ~25%.
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
Consider it this way (don't need the actual calcs).
Bag with 4 apples picked randomly from a tree with lots of apples, half good half bad.
Scenario 1: You pick an apple at random from the bag and it's good. Put it back in the bag.
Scenario 2: You pick an apple at random from the bag and it's bad. Put it back in the bag.
Scenario 1 has ruled out the possibility of the bag containing 4 bad apples but it might have 4 good ones.
Scenario 2 has ruled out the possibility of the bag containing 4 good apples but it might have 4 bad ones.
Which of the two things happen impacts the odds of picking a good one from the bag when you try again. You have a better chance in scenario 1 than in scenario 2.
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
This is clearly a bit like the classic probability question - the Monty Hall. Clearly some will think that as the apples were initially randomly chosen and you then randomly pick one it doesn't matter. But if course we know that some possibilities no longer exist. At least one of bag A is good (no holes) ruling out then all being bad. And similarly for bag B they are not all bad. The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
In Monty Hall (as noted upthread) the probabilities change during the game.
In this puzzle the probabilities are fixed by the number of apples in each bag.
Picking a good one and putting it back doesn't change the probability of you picking a good one
Crucially in Monty Hall the bad door is NOT put back into the bag...
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend. 2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have. 3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure. 2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
Sorry to hear your troubles. Stroke services are something that has made dramatic strides forward, particularly in larger units that can scan and do interventions radiology around the clock. An on call rota for these things is not viable everywhere.
I agree on immigrant descended staff. I am one of only 10% of the Medical staff in my department that are ethnically British, though of the others about 50% are British born second or third generation. When I interview for the Medical School only 10-15% of candidates are white British, though nearly all British by birth. The nursing students are a pretty similar bunch. Leicester is seen as a good place to come particularly for British Asians but I expect that even places like Peninsula Medical school or UEA are much the same. It's a bit of a stereotype that Medicine, Law and Accountancy are dominated by British Asians, but not one without some foundation.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
I was 18 before I had rice
When I was a kid, every week my mum would cook some concoction with lentils in it.
As a result, I *never* cook with lentils...
As for rice: it is simple to cook, but easy to muck up. We do it the Turkish way: fry some orzo in butter before adding the rice and water.
I like lentils tbf, and split peas. Nice bit of pease pudding. Mum was an extremely traditional English cook - and a little of thrift dishes as we weren't ever so well off. Leftover meals, bubble and squeak etc etc and plenty Yorkshires to fill you up with roasts. Suet pudding of savory and sweet kinds, proper Norfolk dumplings and simple sinkers too. Yum. But baking was where my mums family all excelled and excel, my great grandma was in service to the local big families (Gurneys etc), a senior member of various kitchens and through her the female members of my clan all bake like its second nature. As do I now tbf
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend. 2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have. 3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure. 2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
Sorry to hear your troubles. Stroke services are something that has made dramatic strides forward, particularly in larger units that can scan and do interventions radiology around the clock. An on call rota for these things is not viable everywhere.
I agree on immigrant descended staff. I am one of only 10% of the Medical staff in my department that are ethnically British, though of the others about 50% are British born second or third generation. When I interview for the Medical School only 10-15% of candidates are white British, though nearly all British by birth. The nursing students are a pretty similar bunch. Leicester is seen as a good place to come particularly for British Asians but I expect that even places like Peninsula Medical school or UEA are much the same. It's a bit of a stereotype that Medicine, Law and Accountancy are dominated by British Asians, but not one without some foundation.
Pharmacy too. A cohort where traditional British names is the minority, but most are 2nd, 3rd generation migrants and as British as me.
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
This is clearly a bit like the classic probability question - the Monty Hall. Clearly some will think that as the apples were initially randomly chosen and you then randomly pick one it doesn't matter. But if course we know that some possibilities no longer exist. At least one of bag A is good (no holes) ruling out then all being bad. And similarly for bag B they are not all bad. The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
In Monty Hall (as noted upthread) the probabilities change during the game.
In this puzzle the probabilities are fixed by the number of apples in each bag.
Picking a good one and putting it back doesn't change the probability of you picking a good one
Crucially in Monty Hall the bad door is NOT put back into the bag...
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
And the only thing you've gained from the information provided is that in both bags 1 apple is good, but the probability for the remaining apples is still 50/50...
So you have 2 50/50 chances and 1 100% chance in bag A = 66% You have 3 50/50 chances and 1 100% chanve in bag B = 62.5%
So 73% do of 18 to 24s do NOT want to abolish the monarchy and only 27% do in other words, once you read past the TSE spin
Your arithmetic is off. Not to mention your comprehension and logic. The correct balanced figures are 23 and 27 respectively, once your spin is dumped in the wpb.
Or in other words less than a third of 16s and 17s want to abolish the monarchy
Which is more than the proportion who want to keep it.
TSE's header is 'Patriotic Brits reject the monarchy.' Which is the most misleading and biased header ever on a PB Thread.
First, the poll is only of 16 to 17 year olds NOT of all adult Brits.
Second, it would need 51% of 16 to 17 year olds to reject the monarchy for that to be accurate, not 27% and of course it would be even lower once they are given the correct forced choice of King William or President Farage or Starmer
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
I was 18 before I had rice
When I was a kid, every week my mum would cook some concoction with lentils in it.
As a result, I *never* cook with lentils...
As for rice: it is simple to cook, but easy to muck up. We do it the Turkish way: fry some orzo in butter before adding the rice and water.
I like lentils tbf, and split peas. Nice bit of pease pudding. Mum was an extremely traditional English cook - and a little of thrift dishes as we weren't ever so well off. Leftover meals, bubble and squeak etc etc and plenty Yorkshires to fill you up with roasts. Suet pudding of savory and sweet kinds, proper Norfolk dumplings and simple sinkers too. Yum. But baking was where my mums family all excelled and excel, my great grandma was in service to the local big families (Gurneys etc), a senior member of various kitchens and through her the female members of my clan all bake like its second nature. As do I now tbf
Never heard of those. Tempted as we don't normally use suet in cooking anyway.
I make them with suet sometimes too if im being all foreign. But a pair of Norfolk dumplings on a cold winters day atop a big pan of stew like big pillows.... mmmmmm Thats swimmers. Sinkers are when you make them in a rush and they are a bit too dense and sink. Still nice though!
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend. 2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have. 3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure. 2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
Sorry to hear your troubles. Stroke services are something that has made dramatic strides forward, particularly in larger units that can scan and do interventions radiology around the clock. An on call rota for these things is not viable everywhere.
I agree on immigrant descended staff. I am one of only 10% of the Medical staff in my department that are ethnically British, though of the others about 50% are British born second or third generation. When I interview for the Medical School only 10-15% of candidates are white British, though nearly all British by birth. The nursing students are a pretty similar bunch. Leicester is seen as a good place to come particularly for British Asians but I expect that even places like Peninsula Medical school or UEA are much the same. It's a bit of a stereotype that Medicine, Law and Accountancy are dominated by British Asians, but not one without some foundation.
Pharmacy too. A cohort where traditional British names is the minority, but most are 2nd, 3rd generation migrants and as British as me.
I don't think this is particularly unusual: ambitious immigrants want the safest path for their offspring into the middle classes, and that is very often medicine. When I was a kid growing up in Southwest London, I remember that many of the GPs in our local practice had turbans, and I thought for a long while it was a part of the uniform for doctors.
I very much doubt this is a British thing. My guess is that doctors in Canada, Australia, and the US are all much more likely to be the children of immigrants.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
Which would be fine if the bags were not restricted. But they are. Just because bag a is three random apples, doesn't mean that follows later. The statistics of what you see depend on the evidence you are given.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
I was 18 before I had rice
When I was a kid, every week my mum would cook some concoction with lentils in it.
As a result, I *never* cook with lentils...
As for rice: it is simple to cook, but easy to muck up. We do it the Turkish way: fry some orzo in butter before adding the rice and water.
I like lentils tbf, and split peas. Nice bit of pease pudding. Mum was an extremely traditional English cook - and a little of thrift dishes as we weren't ever so well off. Leftover meals, bubble and squeak etc etc and plenty Yorkshires to fill you up with roasts. Suet pudding of savory and sweet kinds, proper Norfolk dumplings and simple sinkers too. Yum. But baking was where my mums family all excelled and excel, my great grandma was in service to the local big families (Gurneys etc), a senior member of various kitchens and through her the female members of my clan all bake like its second nature. As do I now tbf
Phillipson undoubtedly thinks she has it in the bag. But having a chat and confidence discussion with your 80 mates isn't necessarily going to give you quite the outcome you imagined.
Thornberry probably has a more realistic assessment of her own chances.
Powell I find impossible to judge. Her support seems thin, but Burnham seems to want her.
The other silly people are just silly, although as its Labour not to be entirely discounted.
Corbyn was “just silly” in 2015. Then the membership went and elected him.
Yes, but 80 nominations needed, Corbyn, Sultana etc do not get a vote and the 2024 newbies were rarely Corbynites.
I think someone to the left of Starmer, but that probably is the entire party bar Streeting.
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend. 2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have. 3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure. 2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
Sorry to hear your troubles. Stroke services are something that has made dramatic strides forward, particularly in larger units that can scan and do interventions radiology around the clock. An on call rota for these things is not viable everywhere.
I agree on immigrant descended staff. I am one of only 10% of the Medical staff in my department that are ethnically British, though of the others about 50% are British born second or third generation. When I interview for the Medical School only 10-15% of candidates are white British, though nearly all British by birth. The nursing students are a pretty similar bunch. Leicester is seen as a good place to come particularly for British Asians but I expect that even places like Peninsula Medical school or UEA are much the same. It's a bit of a stereotype that Medicine, Law and Accountancy are dominated by British Asians, but not one without some foundation.
Pharmacy too. A cohort where traditional British names is the minority, but most are 2nd, 3rd generation migrants and as British as me.
I don't think this is particularly unusual: ambitious immigrants want the safest path for their offspring into the middle classes, and that is very often medicine. When I was a kid growing up in Southwest London, I remember that many of the GPs in our local practice had turbans, and I thought for a long while it was a part of the uniform for doctors.
I very much doubt this is a British thing. My guess is that doctors in Canada, Australia, and the US are all much more likely to be the children of immigrants.
Pharmacy never had the restricted student numbers that medicine does and offers better pay than nursing did. So no wonder many people of asian descent headed in that direction, close enough to keep the family happy with a chance of owning your own business long term.
It's why you see an awful lot of asian opticians for similar reasons..
The freedom flotilla drone attack is my favourite story of the day
It seems very clearly to me to be a self-inflicted flare attack
A great example of how an untruth can go around the world before it’s clearly proven to be wrong.
As opposed to the murder of Iryna Zarutska, where the media totallly ignored a cold-blooded and unprovoked killing that took place in public, because it didn’t fit their preferred ‘narrative’’.
So 73% do of 18 to 24s do NOT want to abolish the monarchy and only 27% do in other words, once you read past the TSE spin
Your arithmetic is off. Not to mention your comprehension and logic. The correct balanced figures are 23 and 27 respectively, once your spin is dumped in the wpb.
Or in other words less than a third of 16s and 17s want to abolish the monarchy
Which is more than the proportion who want to keep it.
TSE's header is 'Patriotic Brits reject the monarchy.' Which is the most misleading and biased header ever on a PB Thread.
First, the poll is only of 16 to 17 year olds NOT of all adult Brits.
Second, it would need 51% of 16 to 17 year olds to reject the monarchy for that to be accurate, not 27% and of course it would be even lower once they are given the correct forced choice of King William or President Farage or Starmer
You're still spinning like a bad washing machine. The candidates for HoS would include people such as Sir DA as well as superannuated pols. Not currently active ones.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
So 73% do of 18 to 24s do NOT want to abolish the monarchy and only 27% do in other words, once you read past the TSE spin
Your arithmetic is off. Not to mention your comprehension and logic. The correct balanced figures are 23 and 27 respectively, once your spin is dumped in the wpb.
Or in other words less than a third of 16s and 17s want to abolish the monarchy
Which is more than the proportion who want to keep it.
TSE's header is 'Patriotic Brits reject the monarchy.' Which is the most misleading and biased header ever on a PB Thread.
First, the poll is only of 16 to 17 year olds NOT of all adult Brits.
Second, it would need 51% of 16 to 17 year olds to reject the monarchy for that to be accurate, not 27% and of course it would be even lower once they are given the correct forced choice of King William or President Farage or Starmer
You're still spinning like a bad washing machine. The candidates for HoS would include people such as Sir DA as well as superannuated pols. Not currently active ones.
No they wouldn't, Sir DA is 99 and will sadly soon be dead.
Most republics have politician or ex politician heads of state
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
Which would be fine if the bags were not restricted. But they are. Just because bag a is three random apples, doesn't mean that follows later. The statistics of what you see depend on the evidence you are given.
Nope
Your odds of throwing a 6 don't increase just cos I show you that side of a die
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend. 2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have. 3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure. 2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
Sorry to hear your troubles. Stroke services are something that has made dramatic strides forward, particularly in larger units that can scan and do interventions radiology around the clock. An on call rota for these things is not viable everywhere.
I agree on immigrant descended staff. I am one of only 10% of the Medical staff in my department that are ethnically British, though of the others about 50% are British born second or third generation. When I interview for the Medical School only 10-15% of candidates are white British, though nearly all British by birth. The nursing students are a pretty similar bunch. Leicester is seen as a good place to come particularly for British Asians but I expect that even places like Peninsula Medical school or UEA are much the same. It's a bit of a stereotype that Medicine, Law and Accountancy are dominated by British Asians, but not one without some foundation.
Pharmacy too. A cohort where traditional British names is the minority, but most are 2nd, 3rd generation migrants and as British as me.
I don't think this is particularly unusual: ambitious immigrants want the safest path for their offspring into the middle classes, and that is very often medicine. When I was a kid growing up in Southwest London, I remember that many of the GPs in our local practice had turbans, and I thought for a long while it was a part of the uniform for doctors.
I very much doubt this is a British thing. My guess is that doctors in Canada, Australia, and the US are all much more likely to be the children of immigrants.
Disproportionally so. I haven't seen anyone Jewish Medical Student in years, though my department was half Jewish when I joined. After 5 or 6 generations the communities are better established.
One of my former colleagues was the son of small boat arrivals (in a fishing boat from Norway in 1940).
Tom Harris 🇬🇧 @MrTCHarris · 7h We're about to see a very irritating game of "Prolier Than Thou" among the Labour deputy leader candidates as they re-enact the Four Yorkshiremen sketch between now and October.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
Which would be fine if the bags were not restricted. But they are. Just because bag a is three random apples, doesn't mean that follows later. The statistics of what you see depend on the evidence you are given.
Nope
Your odds of throwing a 6 don't increase just cos I show you that side of a die
Qatar is refuting the White House's claim that they were given advance warning of the Israeli attack, instead saying the call (which the administration says was from Steve Witkoff) came while the attack was underway.
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
Which would be fine if the bags were not restricted. But they are. Just because bag a is three random apples, doesn't mean that follows later. The statistics of what you see depend on the evidence you are given.
Nope
Your odds of throwing a 6 don't increase just cos I show you that side of a die
That's not an apt comparison.
It really is
The whole point is that the information you are given about the contents of the bags doesn't change the probabilities inside the bag.
Tom Harris 🇬🇧 @MrTCHarris · 7h We're about to see a very irritating game of "Prolier Than Thou" among the Labour deputy leader candidates as they re-enact the Four Yorkshiremen sketch between now and October.
They cant be as working class as St Angela of Hove or Keir who had to sleep with his flute between various lathes
Qatar is refuting the White House's claim that they were given advance warning of the Israeli attack, instead saying the call (which the administration says was from Steve Witkoff) came while the attack was underway.
Steve was probably too busy to call earlier as he was calling to tell the Ukrainians that Russia had bombed them the night before and it was all their own fault.
Leavitt: "The president has one of the most famous signatures in the world, and he has for many many years ... the president did not write that letter. He did not sign those documents. He maintains that position and that position will be argued in court."
Very interesting. Attacking a sovereign country other than in self defence is illegal in international law. As Rory says if they had had the peace talks in London would the Israelis have attackedLondon. Well worth listening to. Netanyahu has completely lost his mind.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Stormtroopers with spreadsheets?
It's a form of progress I suppose!
There's a BTEC in Public Services which FE colleges run. Think preparation for police, emergency services or military careers.
For an easily confused A Level teacher, it can be a bit alarming seeing them practicing round the campus.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
This is clearly a bit like the classic probability question - the Monty Hall. Clearly some will think that as the apples were initially randomly chosen and you then randomly pick one it doesn't matter. But if course we know that some possibilities no longer exist. At least one of bag A is good (no holes) ruling out then all being bad. And similarly for bag B they are not all bad. The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
In Monty Hall (as noted upthread) the probabilities change during the game.
In this puzzle the probabilities are fixed by the number of apples in each bag.
Picking a good one and putting it back doesn't change the probability of you picking a good one
Crucially in Monty Hall the bad door is NOT put back into the bag...
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
And the only thing you've gained from the information provided is that in both bags 1 apple is good, but the probability for the remaining apples is still 50/50...
So you have 2 50/50 chances and 1 100% chance in bag A = 66% You have 3 50/50 chances and 1 100% chanve in bag B = 62.5%
A is 57%. Knowing at least one is good is not the same as randomly pulling a specific one and finding it good.
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb"
None of which changes the probability of reaching into the bag and selecting a good apple
This is clearly a bit like the classic probability question - the Monty Hall. Clearly some will think that as the apples were initially randomly chosen and you then randomly pick one it doesn't matter. But if course we know that some possibilities no longer exist. At least one of bag A is good (no holes) ruling out then all being bad. And similarly for bag B they are not all bad. The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
In Monty Hall (as noted upthread) the probabilities change during the game.
In this puzzle the probabilities are fixed by the number of apples in each bag.
Picking a good one and putting it back doesn't change the probability of you picking a good one
Crucially in Monty Hall the bad door is NOT put back into the bag...
The probabilities change because the set of possible outcomes changes.
Any time you get information you change the set of possible outcomes.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
I just saw Concorde. Didn’t know they keep one at Heathrow. But so it is
Kinda poignant
And STILL beautiful
Concorde is proof we were more advance in the 60/70s than we are today.
Utterly incorrect. We have the science and technology to build a Concorde replacement, or something better than Concorde, today.
What we don't have is an economic market for such a plane.
There was barely an economic market for Concorde at the time. London/Paris to New York was the only one that airlines ever found, and I'm not sure about Paris.
And now we have video calls, which do a decent percentage of what Concorde did for a tiny fraction of the cost.
The freedom flotilla drone attack is my favourite story of the day
It seems very clearly to me to be a self-inflicted flare attack
A great example of how an untruth can go around the world before it’s clearly proven to be wrong.
As opposed to the murder of Iryna Zarutska, where the media totallly ignored a cold-blooded and unprovoked killing that took place in public, because it didn’t fit their preferred ‘narrative’’.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Royalists like Bourbons.
While Republicans go for Garibaldi's.
Andrea Jenkyns is partial to a Lincoln biscuit
I heard she liked chocolate fingers.
*Francis Urquhart on* You might think that........ *Urquhart off*
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
But it does!
Eg what if, faced with the bag of 4, you FIVE times select an apple at random (before putting it back) and every time it's a good one.
Is this going to impact your assessment of the mix of apples in that bag?
Of course it is. You'll decide (rightly) that they are probably mainly good.
Yes, but IT DOESN'T CHANGE THE PROBABILITY
IT DOES. Having done 5 random draws of a good apple you are armed with information telling you that the probability of picking a good apple from that bag is very high.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Royalists like Bourbons.
While Republicans go for Garibaldi's.
Andrea Jenkyns is partial to a Lincoln biscuit
I would think something half baked would be the Reform choice.
I just saw Concorde. Didn’t know they keep one at Heathrow. But so it is
Kinda poignant
And STILL beautiful
Concorde is proof we were more advance in the 60/70s than we are today.
Utterly incorrect. We have the science and technology to build a Concorde replacement, or something better than Concorde, today.
What we don't have is an economic market for such a plane.
There was barely an economic market for Concorde at the time. London/Paris to New York was the only one that airlines ever found, and I'm not sure about Paris.
And now we have video calls, which do a decent percentage of what Concorde did for a tiny fraction of the cost.
Progress sometimes looks odd.
I know someone who is convinced that the Aurora (a super high-tech plane) exist(es) because the SR-71 Blackbird was decommissioned. The argument being that you never get rid of a capability, and the new must be better than the old.
The problem is that the SR-71's capability could mostly be taken over by spy satellites, and the small gaps in requirement were not worth the extra cost - especially at the risk of a Powers-style incident.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Royalists like Bourbons.
While Republicans go for Garibaldi's.
Andrea Jenkyns is partial to a Lincoln biscuit
I would think something half baked would be the Reform choice.
Or a biscuit made from distilled rage and bits of flag
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
I bet the LDs do best with language fans overall as well.
I just saw Concorde. Didn’t know they keep one at Heathrow. But so it is
Kinda poignant
And STILL beautiful
Concorde is proof we were more advance in the 60/70s than we are today.
Utterly incorrect. We have the science and technology to build a Concorde replacement, or something better than Concorde, today.
What we don't have is an economic market for such a plane.
There was barely an economic market for Concorde at the time. London/Paris to New York was the only one that airlines ever found, and I'm not sure about Paris.
And now we have video calls, which do a decent percentage of what Concorde did for a tiny fraction of the cost.
Progress sometimes looks odd.
Air France had a popular route for Concorde, I seem to recall, of Paris, Dakar, Rio.
BA used Concorde for Barbados and both did other routes like Bahrain, Miami and Washington.
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Royalists like Bourbons.
While Republicans go for Garibaldi's.
Andrea Jenkyns is partial to a Lincoln biscuit
I heard she liked chocolate fingers.
*Francis Urquhart on* You might think that........ *Urquhart off*
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
But it does!
Eg what if, faced with the bag of 4, you FIVE times select an apple at random (before putting it back) and every time it's a good one.
Is this going to impact your assessment of the mix of apples in that bag?
Of course it is. You'll decide (rightly) that they are probably mainly good.
Yes, but IT DOESN'T CHANGE THE PROBABILITY
IT DOES. Having done 5 random draws of a good apple you are armed with information telling you that the probability of picking a good apple from that bag is very high.
This is not like red/black in roulette or a dice.
It really is
You seem to be arguing that playing Russian Roulette and not getting shot 5 times makes it less likely you will get shot on the 6th attempt...
And remember the original problem is which of 2 bags would you pick.
You know both of them have at least 1 good apple, but knowing that doesn't make 1 bag better than the other
Plenty of ways you can look at the voting intention of 16-17 year olds, but here's a fun one:
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform 🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school 🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Uh oh.
PE and Business Studies.
Tories meanwhile do best amongst those who loved Maths, like Rishi and Geography. Labour do best amongst those who liked English then Maths best
We do appreciate of course that these are just for a bit of fun and are based on tiny subsamples. No more accurate than VI by biscuit choice
Royalists like Bourbons.
While Republicans go for Garibaldi's.
Andrea Jenkyns is partial to a Lincoln biscuit
I would think something half baked would be the Reform choice.
Or a biscuit made from distilled rage and bits of flag
Or perhaps a Madeline in Remembrance of Things Past.
I just saw Concorde. Didn’t know they keep one at Heathrow. But so it is
Kinda poignant
And STILL beautiful
Concorde is proof we were more advance in the 60/70s than we are today.
Utterly incorrect. We have the science and technology to build a Concorde replacement, or something better than Concorde, today.
What we don't have is an economic market for such a plane.
There was barely an economic market for Concorde at the time. London/Paris to New York was the only one that airlines ever found, and I'm not sure about Paris.
And now we have video calls, which do a decent percentage of what Concorde did for a tiny fraction of the cost.
Progress sometimes looks odd.
The Fifth Dynasty (and beyond) Pyramids were rubbish compared to the Fourth Dynasty masterpieces at Giza.
Do the apples identify as good or bad and does the High Court recognise the self ID? That might change the probability a lot. 26.3% chance of a TransGood apple followed by a CisGood one
The Lib Dem’s are taking a leaf out of Norman Tebbit’s book in the eighties and pressuring the state broadcaster over its coverage for Reform making it clear the BBC needs to reduce covering them. They’ve just had their party conference for goodness sake.
I also cannot see how this does them any favours or harms Reform. It simply plays into the Reform claim of being an insurgent the main parties all oppose.
Pathetic party.
Absolutely no opposition to this ghastly Government, rather wail about a fellow opposition party. Dereliction of duty.
I just saw Concorde. Didn’t know they keep one at Heathrow. But so it is
Kinda poignant
And STILL beautiful
Concorde is proof we were more advance in the 60/70s than we are today.
Utterly incorrect. We have the science and technology to build a Concorde replacement, or something better than Concorde, today.
What we don't have is an economic market for such a plane.
There was barely an economic market for Concorde at the time. London/Paris to New York was the only one that airlines ever found, and I'm not sure about Paris.
And now we have video calls, which do a decent percentage of what Concorde did for a tiny fraction of the cost.
Progress sometimes looks odd.
Concorde and its American oppos were supposed to be the mass market and the 747 was an interim design made to be easily convertible to freight loading when the self-loading cargo all marched off to go on Concorde and the Boeing 2707.
instead it ended up being close to a classic Veblenian luxury item (how close depends how seriously one can take the argument about nipping over to NYC for a quick head to head by captains of industry and bacl in time for dinner).
The freedom flotilla drone attack is my favourite story of the day
It seems very clearly to me to be a self-inflicted flare attack
A great example of how an untruth can go around the world before it’s clearly proven to be wrong.
As opposed to the murder of Iryna Zarutska, where the media totallly ignored a cold-blooded and unprovoked killing that took place in public, because it didn’t fit their preferred ‘narrative’’.
It's all over the media now.
Sadly with, in the US at least, some terrible headlines about how drawing attention to these events plays into Trump’s hands about violent crime in cities, and how widespread CCTV “leaks” risk social unrest.
Rather than how someone can be arrested 14 times for violent offences and still be out on the streets.
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
But it does!
Eg what if, faced with the bag of 4, you FIVE times select an apple at random (before putting it back) and every time it's a good one.
Is this going to impact your assessment of the mix of apples in that bag?
Of course it is. You'll decide (rightly) that they are probably mainly good.
Yes, but IT DOESN'T CHANGE THE PROBABILITY
IT DOES. Having done 5 random draws of a good apple you are armed with information telling you that the probability of picking a good apple from that bag is very high.
This is not like red/black in roulette or a dice.
It really is
You seem to be arguing that playing Russian Roulette and not getting shot 5 times makes it less likely you will get shot on the 6th attempt...
And remember the original problem is which of 2 bags would you pick.
You know both of them have at least 1 good apple, but knowing that doesn't make 1 bag better than the other
You know more than that.
Clearly you either didn't read the question carefully, or you don't understand probabilities well.
Draw out the set of possible outcomes for both, with their odds, and see if they're the same.
The probabilities are fixed when the apples go in the bag but you gain information about the bags. That's the key thing.
The information doesn't change the probabilities. That's the key thing.
Which would be fine if the bags were not restricted. But they are. Just because bag a is three random apples, doesn't mean that follows later. The statistics of what you see depend on the evidence you are given.
Nope
Your odds of throwing a 6 don't increase just cos I show you that side of a die
That's not an apt comparison.
It really is
The whole point is that the information you are given about the contents of the bags doesn't change the probabilities inside the bag.
Showing you the dice doesn't change the odds.
Ok one last try ...
Imagine you ONE THOUSAND times pick an apple at random from the bag of 4 and every single time it's a good one.
Are you saying this does not change the probabilities of what's inside that bag very strongly in favour of all 4 apples being good?
Comments
Long grain is good for jambalaya
From bag A the odds are 66%, bag B 62.5% were there bag C with 1 known and 4 unknown 60%, bag alpha with 1 known and 1 unknown 75%.
Basically no matter how you phrase the question there is a bag with 1 good apple and x-1 apples of unknown status in it the odds of picking a good apple is x+1/2x where x is the number of apples in the bag
Sticky rice is the stuff one gets in Chimese dim sum stuffed vine leaves. I've never used it in cooking myself.
The phrasing is tricky, and apparently has been refined from the initial puzzle. Essentially by showing you an apple or just telling you about one you change the statistical distribution that remains.
The Unions and Labour membership so clearly want a new Labour leadership and change of direction. Lucy has clearly got this if she makes 80 MPs.
Lucy will be PM Burnham Deputy PM.
This kept prices down - quite a few were owned by local people, even into the early 2000s - when flats around there were £500k. A 2 bed there went for £60k
Mum was an extremely traditional English cook - and a little of thrift dishes as we weren't ever so well off. Leftover meals, bubble and squeak etc etc and plenty Yorkshires to fill you up with roasts. Suet pudding of savory and sweet kinds, proper Norfolk dumplings and simple sinkers too. Yum.
But baking was where my mums family all excelled and excel, my great grandma was in service to the local big families (Gurneys etc), a senior member of various kitchens and through her the female members of my clan all bake like its second nature. As do I now tbf
In this puzzle the probabilities are fixed by the number of apples in each bag.
Picking a good one and putting it back doesn't change the probability of you picking a good one
Crucially in Monty Hall the bad door is NOT put back into the bag...
Boy B is just picking at random, so nothing much can be inferred about his other three apples from what shows you.
The only time this logic is flawed is when the chances of a good apple are low enough that it's very likely Boy B has three duds and a good apple, at which point picking Boy A is a 33% chance of getting a good apple and Boy B is ~25%.
Bag with 4 apples picked randomly from a tree with lots of apples, half good half bad.
Scenario 1: You pick an apple at random from the bag and it's good. Put it back in the bag.
Scenario 2: You pick an apple at random from the bag and it's bad. Put it back in the bag.
Scenario 1 has ruled out the possibility of the bag containing 4 bad apples but it might have 4 good ones.
Scenario 2 has ruled out the possibility of the bag containing 4 good apples but it might have 4 bad ones.
Which of the two things happen impacts the odds of picking a good one from the bag when you try again. You have a better chance in scenario 1 than in scenario 2.
I agree on immigrant descended staff. I am one of only 10% of the Medical staff in my department that are ethnically British, though of the others about 50% are British born second or third generation. When I interview for the Medical School only 10-15% of candidates are white British, though nearly all British by birth. The nursing students are a pretty similar bunch. Leicester is seen as a good place to come particularly for British Asians but I expect that even places like Peninsula Medical school or UEA are much the same. It's a bit of a stereotype that Medicine, Law and Accountancy are dominated by British Asians, but not one without some foundation.
Never heard of those. Tempted as we don't normally use suet in cooking anyway.
Each scenario is independent.
It seems very clearly to me to be a self-inflicted flare attack
So you have 2 50/50 chances and 1 100% chance in bag A = 66%
You have 3 50/50 chances and 1 100% chanve in bag B = 62.5%
First, the poll is only of 16 to 17 year olds NOT of all adult Brits.
Second, it would need 51% of 16 to 17 year olds to reject the monarchy for that to be accurate, not 27% and of course it would be even lower once they are given the correct forced choice of King William or President Farage or Starmer
Thats swimmers. Sinkers are when you make them in a rush and they are a bit too dense and sink. Still nice though!
➡️ PE and Business Studies students are much more likely to vote Reform
🌍 The Green Party does best with those who enjoy Drama at school
🔶 Lib Dems do best with modern language fans
https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1965428390732976179
Not least, that Qatar has spent billions on ballistic missile defence systems from the USA - not least lots and lots of Patriot.
Also Thaad, which ahs not arrived yet.
Was it all turned off?
I very much doubt this is a British thing. My guess is that doctors in Canada, Australia, and the US are all much more likely to be the children of immigrants.
Fire up the emergency podcast
https://x.com/campbellclaret/status/1965421320570626526?s=61
PE and Business Studies.
I think someone to the left of Starmer, but that probably is the entire party bar Streeting.
It's why you see an awful lot of asian opticians for similar reasons..
An advantage of having people with such networks. Rory: One of my contacts was driving past the building when it went up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBMnDbW2GVg
As opposed to the murder of Iryna Zarutska, where the media totallly ignored a cold-blooded and unprovoked killing that took place in public, because it didn’t fit their preferred ‘narrative’’.
It's a form of progress I suppose!
Most republics have politician or ex politician heads of state
Your odds of throwing a 6 don't increase just cos I show you that side of a die
Eg what if, faced with the bag of 4, you FIVE times select an apple at random (before putting it back) and every time it's a good one.
Is this going to impact your assessment of the mix of apples in that bag?
Of course it is. You'll decide (rightly) that they are probably mainly good.
One of my former colleagues was the son of small boat arrivals (in a fishing boat from Norway in 1940).
Does me showing you a white ball increase your chances of pulling a white ball out of the bag?
No
Remember there are 2 bags
I show you a white ball from each bag.
Which bag do you pick if you want a white ball?
@MrTCHarris
·
7h
We're about to see a very irritating game of "Prolier Than Thou" among the Labour deputy leader candidates as they re-enact the Four Yorkshiremen sketch between now and October.
Qatar is refuting the White House's claim that they were given advance warning of the Israeli attack, instead saying the call (which the administration says was from Steve Witkoff) came while the attack was underway.
The whole point is that the information you are given about the contents of the bags doesn't change the probabilities inside the bag.
Showing you the dice doesn't change the odds.
Though orangey brown nosing may be more apposite in that case.
Leavitt: "The president has one of the most famous signatures in the world, and he has for many many years ... the president did not write that letter. He did not sign those documents. He maintains that position and that position will be argued in court."
For an easily confused A Level teacher, it can be a bit alarming seeing them practicing round the campus.
While Republicans go for Garibaldi's.
EDIT: Just because you know there is a good 1 in the bag doesn't increase you chances of pulling it out of the bag
Any time you get information you change the set of possible outcomes.
And now we have video calls, which do a decent percentage of what Concorde did for a tiny fraction of the cost.
Progress sometimes looks odd.
Contract tender follows 'alarming' safeguarding failure at border with undocumented kids
https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/09/home_office_age_algorithm/
You might think that........
*Urquhart off*
This is not like red/black in roulette or a dice.
The problem is that the SR-71's capability could mostly be taken over by spy satellites, and the small gaps in requirement were not worth the extra cost - especially at the risk of a Powers-style incident.
Can't seem to get a bet on the match being abandoned.
BA used Concorde for Barbados and both did other routes like Bahrain, Miami and Washington.
You seem to be arguing that playing Russian Roulette and not getting shot 5 times makes it less likely you will get shot on the 6th attempt...
And remember the original problem is which of 2 bags would you pick.
You know both of them have at least 1 good apple, but knowing that doesn't make 1 bag better than the other
That might change the probability a lot.
26.3% chance of a TransGood apple followed by a CisGood one
Absolutely no opposition to this ghastly Government, rather wail about a fellow opposition party. Dereliction of duty.
instead it ended up being close to a classic Veblenian luxury item (how close depends how seriously one can take the argument about nipping over to NYC for a quick head to head by captains of industry and bacl in time for dinner).
Rather than how someone can be arrested 14 times for violent offences and still be out on the streets.
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1965041387386114196
Clearly you either didn't read the question carefully, or you don't understand probabilities well.
Draw out the set of possible outcomes for both, with their odds, and see if they're the same.
Hint: They're not.
Imagine you ONE THOUSAND times pick an apple at random from the bag of 4 and every single time it's a good one.
Are you saying this does not change the probabilities of what's inside that bag very strongly in favour of all 4 apples being good?
Course it does. C'mon.