He can’t survive this. These images even worse than pictures that destroyed Prince Andrew.
He certainly shouldn't survive this.
I'm quite glad that I've always been rather Mandelsonophobic on here...
I haven't. I admired his skill, his intelligence, his networking and his ability to get things done. I was not displeased when these skills were once again put to service in the public interest. But this is fatal. In the current climate this simply cannot be excused.
To be fair on Mandy, I don't think he has ever shown any interest in young girls, even when he was young himself!
True, but he is very interested in rich people that play by their own rules. As he has. But those who play with fire sometimes get burned. And he has been.
At what point does the UK / Europe start to assert itself? We are clearly entering into a new world order where the international rule book is null and void. We keep acting like it’s just business as usual
He can’t survive this. These images even worse than pictures that destroyed Prince Andrew.
He certainly shouldn't survive this.
I'm quite glad that I've always been rather Mandelsonophobic on here...
I haven't. I admired his skill, his intelligence, his networking and his ability to get things done. I was not displeased when these skills were once again put to service in the public interest. But this is fatal. In the current climate this simply cannot be excused.
To be fair on Mandy, I don't think he has ever shown any interest in young girls, even when he was young himself!
You are making an assumption about Epstein. Read some of the witness/victim statements.
At what point does the UK / Europe start to assert itself? We are clearly entering into a new world order where the international rule book is null and void. We keep acting like it’s just business as usual
Assert itself with what precisely???
Fair point. But we clearly need to be gearing up for something bigger
The Lib Dem’s are taking a leaf out of Norman Tebbit’s book in the eighties and pressuring the state broadcaster over its coverage for Reform making it clear the BBC needs to reduce covering them. They’ve just had their party conference for goodness sake.
I also cannot see how this does them any favours or harms Reform. It simply plays into the Reform claim of being an insurgent the main parties all oppose.
BBC??? No it's GB News who are the Reform fanbois!
He can’t survive this. These images even worse than pictures that destroyed Prince Andrew.
He certainly shouldn't survive this.
I'm quite glad that I've always been rather Mandelsonophobic on here...
I haven't. I admired his skill, his intelligence, his networking and his ability to get things done. I was not displeased when these skills were once again put to service in the public interest. But this is fatal. In the current climate this simply cannot be excused.
To be fair on Mandy, I don't think he has ever shown any interest in young girls, even when he was young himself!
True, but he is very interested in rich people that play by their own rules. As he has. But those who play with fire sometimes get burned. And he has been.
Don't get me wrong, he has always been dodgy and attracted to wealth and luxury.
But Epstein was like Saville, very good at protecting himself by smarming up to others in the public eye. I wouldn't take association as proof.
I just find it hard to imagine Britain as a Republic.
Well, it was at one point, it just wasn't a great success.
It went so badly that staunch Republican supporters couldn't think of a better way forward than inviting back the son of the monarch they'd executed. And shuffling about awkwardly staring at their feet while mumbling an apology.
Kinda embarrassing really.
That's true. And the Stuarts still made a mess the second time round. Albeit doing one or two useful things like promoting the Royal Navy (following on from the Commonwealth) (although letting it get burnt/captured) and helping establish the Royal Society of London.
Sure, but arguing about the royals cocking things up in the 17th century seems to ignore the modern reality that they don't have any power these days.
KCIII has failed to be the toxic monarch republicans expected and hoped for because a modern monarch doesn't have to do anything except turn up. If someone like Charles - who let's face it, it's both a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot - can manage not to bungle it, then it's hard to see the circumstances in which the British public would turn against the monarchy.
He isn't the toxic monarch I expected. I'm not sure I'd have used the phrase "a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot" but it certainly wasn't obvious before he took over what positive qualities he would bring to the role to make us like the monarchy - but I think you are right in that the bar is actually rather lower than we imagined. But it isn't infinitely lower. Low though the bar is, it's easy to imagine a monarch who fails to meet it - just look at his brother or his younger son.
KCIII was raising issues of affordability in housing in the 1980s - and pushed the Crown Estate to take action. Then got into building planned towns before that became fashionable.
He was big into environmentalism when that got you laughed at. See also sustainable agriculture…
He also raised issues of race before became fashionable - stuff like embarrassing the Army as to why there were no black soldiers in the guards. Reached out to other faiths etc.
On a number of big issues he was way ahead of the curve.
How many homeless people is he housing in his umpteen palaces???
He can’t survive this. These images even worse than pictures that destroyed Prince Andrew.
He certainly shouldn't survive this.
I'm quite glad that I've always been rather Mandelsonophobic on here...
I haven't. I admired his skill, his intelligence, his networking and his ability to get things done. I was not displeased when these skills were once again put to service in the public interest. But this is fatal. In the current climate this simply cannot be excused.
To be fair on Mandy, I don't think he has ever shown any interest in young girls, even when he was young himself!
True, but he is very interested in rich people that play by their own rules. As he has. But those who play with fire sometimes get burned. And he has been.
Don't get me wrong, he has always been dodgy and attracted to wealth and luxury.
But Epstein was like Saville, very good at protecting himself by smarming up to others in the public eye. I wouldn't take association as proof.
Perhaps not, but coupled with the message he sent Epstein with all its euphemisms...
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
The Apple Puzzle On a tree, half of the apples have holes made by wasps. • One boy picked 3 apples at random and said “at least one of mine has no holes.” • Another boy picked 4 apples similarly. He showed me one of them at random, and it had no holes. He put it back. If you may take just one apple from either boy’s bag, from which boy do you have the better chance of picking an apple without holes?
Let's number the apples physically, so child A has apples numbered 1-3, child B has apples numbered 1-4.
We will designated G as good, B as bad
Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 12/24 to 12/21 by removing the 3 bads option = 57.1%
We have not used the numbers.
Child B removes 1 apple from the bag, at random, and finds it is good. For the sake of argument we'll say apple 1 has been removed, though it works exactly the same if apples 2 or 3 or 4 are found to be good.
This rules in (at equal probability): Gggg, gggb, ggbg, gbgg, ggbb, gbgb, gbbg, gbbb
(Notice how much more has been ruled out by saying apple #1 of the 4 is good rather than one of the three apples is good)
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 32/64 to 20/32 by removing all the bad apple #1 options) = 62.5%
The original wording didnt state that the second apple was chosen at random (may allude to it, but unclear), nor the proportion of good or bad apples. Hence the long and confusing discussion as some will still be answering a different interpretation if they didnt see the updated wording.
"All this talk about polling reminds me of an intriguing puzzle I devised from recent experiences with wasp-damaged apples. Anyone who is into the difficulties of polling and sampling may find it interesting. Please post your answers but don't spoil the fun by giving any reasoning or explanation yet: Two children pick apples from the same wasp-busy tree. Child A picks 3 apples and says: “At least one of mine has no wasp holes.” Child B picks 4 apples and shows you one that is definitely hole-free, then puts it back in the bag. You may take one apple from one child’s bag. From which bag do you have the better chance of getting an apple without holes — A’s or B’s?"
Surely however once the apple goes back into the bag it stops being apple 1? There are simply four apples in the bag, at least one of which is good.
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Probably correct, voters keep voting for bad choices, then moan when they don't deliver.
I hear there are six now for the Deputy Leader post, does anyone have a list?
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and senior backbencher Dame Emily Thornberry are among six Labour MPs to have entered the contest to be party's next deputy leader.
Housing Minister Alison McGovern, former minister Lucy Powell, and backbenchers Paula Barker and Bell Ribeiro-Addy are also running in the race to replace Angela Rayner in the deputy role.
In order to run, the candidates will need to collect support from 80 MPs by 17:00 on Thursday - a tight timetable which has been criticised by some in Labour. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rvqv9yg4eo
Qatar's Interior Ministry says a member of the country's security forces was killed by the Israeli strikes which targeted Hamas officials in Doha this morning.
The Apple Puzzle On a tree, half of the apples have holes made by wasps. • One boy picked 3 apples at random and said “at least one of mine has no holes.” • Another boy picked 4 apples similarly. He showed me one of them at random, and it had no holes. He put it back. If you may take just one apple from either boy’s bag, from which boy do you have the better chance of picking an apple without holes?
Let's number the apples physically, so child A has apples numbered 1-3, child B has apples numbered 1-4.
We will designated G as good, B as bad
Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 12/24 to 12/21 by removing the 3 bads option = 57.1%
We have not used the numbers.
Child B removes 1 apple from the bag, at random, and finds it is good. For the sake of argument we'll say apple 1 has been removed, though it works exactly the same if apples 2 or 3 or 4 are found to be good.
This rules in (at equal probability): Gggg, gggb, ggbg, gbgg, ggbb, gbgb, gbbg, gbbb
(Notice how much more has been ruled out by saying apple #1 of the 4 is good rather than one of the three apples is good)
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 32/64 to 20/32 by removing all the bad apple #1 options) = 62.5%
The original wording didnt state that the second apple was chosen at random (may allude to it, but unclear), nor the proportion of good or bad apples. Hence the long and confusing discussion as some will still be answering a different interpretation if they didnt see the updated wording.
"All this talk about polling reminds me of an intriguing puzzle I devised from recent experiences with wasp-damaged apples. Anyone who is into the difficulties of polling and sampling may find it interesting. Please post your answers but don't spoil the fun by giving any reasoning or explanation yet: Two children pick apples from the same wasp-busy tree. Child A picks 3 apples and says: “At least one of mine has no wasp holes.” Child B picks 4 apples and shows you one that is definitely hole-free, then puts it back in the bag. You may take one apple from one child’s bag. From which bag do you have the better chance of getting an apple without holes — A’s or B’s?"
Surely however once the apple goes back into the bag it stops being apple 1? There are simply four apples in the bag, at least one of which is good.
The fact of it being chosen at random and being good changes (towards good) the probability distribution of the population of 4.
No way ! Trump looks either weak as in Israel did this and only told him when it was too late . Or he gave the green light and is lying that he didn’t and betrayed a key ally .
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Thornberry won't win. Her constituency is adjacent to Starmer's - not a good look to have a North London Leader and Deputy.
It will be Phillipson or McGovern, I think. Powell is too dull, and the other two can't get enough MP votes.
The Apple Puzzle On a tree, half of the apples have holes made by wasps. • One boy picked 3 apples at random and said “at least one of mine has no holes.” • Another boy picked 4 apples similarly. He showed me one of them at random, and it had no holes. He put it back. If you may take just one apple from either boy’s bag, from which boy do you have the better chance of picking an apple without holes?
Let's number the apples physically, so child A has apples numbered 1-3, child B has apples numbered 1-4.
We will designated G as good, B as bad
Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 12/24 to 12/21 by removing the 3 bads option = 57.1%
We have not used the numbers.
Child B removes 1 apple from the bag, at random, and finds it is good. For the sake of argument we'll say apple 1 has been removed, though it works exactly the same if apples 2 or 3 or 4 are found to be good.
This rules in (at equal probability): Gggg, gggb, ggbg, gbgg, ggbb, gbgb, gbbg, gbbb
(Notice how much more has been ruled out by saying apple #1 of the 4 is good rather than one of the three apples is good)
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 32/64 to 20/32 by removing all the bad apple #1 options) = 62.5%
The original wording didnt state that the second apple was chosen at random (may allude to it, but unclear), nor the proportion of good or bad apples. Hence the long and confusing discussion as some will still be answering a different interpretation if they didnt see the updated wording.
"All this talk about polling reminds me of an intriguing puzzle I devised from recent experiences with wasp-damaged apples. Anyone who is into the difficulties of polling and sampling may find it interesting. Please post your answers but don't spoil the fun by giving any reasoning or explanation yet: Two children pick apples from the same wasp-busy tree. Child A picks 3 apples and says: “At least one of mine has no wasp holes.” Child B picks 4 apples and shows you one that is definitely hole-free, then puts it back in the bag. You may take one apple from one child’s bag. From which bag do you have the better chance of getting an apple without holes — A’s or B’s?"
Agreed, the answer to the question as originally worded is different. This was the question I thought I was answering on my first attempt, but in my case it was my reading comprehension at fault as the question had already been refined by the time I piled in.
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Thornberry won't win. Her constituency is adjacent to Starmer's - not a good look to have a North London Leader and Deputy.
It will be Phillipson or McGovern, I think. Powell is too dull, and the other two can't get enough MP votes.
She is also married to a peer of the realm and couldn't be more removed from the hoi polloi if she married Prince Andrew. Her historic disapproval of England flags on houses also suggests she is not best placed to counter the flag party that is reform.
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Thornberry won't win. Her constituency is adjacent to Starmer's - not a good look to have a North London Leader and Deputy.
It will be Phillipson or McGovern, I think. Powell is too dull, and the other two can't get enough MP votes.
And the deputy PM is the other side of Islington too. North London club
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Emily fits the bill
remember she's a woman, a northerner (north London )and working class ( lawyers work apparently ).
The Apple Puzzle On a tree, half of the apples have holes made by wasps. • One boy picked 3 apples at random and said “at least one of mine has no holes.” • Another boy picked 4 apples similarly. He showed me one of them at random, and it had no holes. He put it back. If you may take just one apple from either boy’s bag, from which boy do you have the better chance of picking an apple without holes?
Let's number the apples physically, so child A has apples numbered 1-3, child B has apples numbered 1-4.
We will designated G as good, B as bad
Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 12/24 to 12/21 by removing the 3 bads option = 57.1%
We have not used the numbers.
Child B removes 1 apple from the bag, at random, and finds it is good. For the sake of argument we'll say apple 1 has been removed, though it works exactly the same if apples 2 or 3 or 4 are found to be good.
This rules in (at equal probability): Gggg, gggb, ggbg, gbgg, ggbb, gbgb, gbbg, gbbb
(Notice how much more has been ruled out by saying apple #1 of the 4 is good rather than one of the three apples is good)
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 32/64 to 20/32 by removing all the bad apple #1 options) = 62.5%
But that isn't how it works for the 3 apple bag you have a 1/3 chance of picking the known good apple and 2/3 chances where you pick the apple with a 50/50 chance of being good. Which is 1/3+(2/3*1/2)=2/3 chance of being correct
For the 4 apple bag you have a 1/4 chance of picking the known good apple, and a 3/4 chance of picking an unknown apple with a 50/50 chance of it being good. Which means 1/4 chance of being lucky and a 3/4*1/2=2/8+3/8=5/8 chance of being correct
So I will stick to 66% chance of a good apple from bag A, 62.5% chance from bag B and if we had bag C (5 apples) a 60% chance with the chance tending to 50% as the bag gets more randomly picked apples placed in it.
He can’t survive this. These images even worse than pictures that destroyed Prince Andrew.
He certainly shouldn't survive this.
I'm quite glad that I've always been rather Mandelsonophobic on here...
I haven't. I admired his skill, his intelligence, his networking and his ability to get things done. I was not displeased when these skills were once again put to service in the public interest. But this is fatal. In the current climate this simply cannot be excused.
In the past, I've commented about how well he speaks. When I speak, I'm thinking of the last sentence I said as I say the next one. Mandelson is obviously thinking two or three sentences ahead. It's a vocal skill I don't have.
But I have little doubt, given his track record, that Mandelson is only interested in what furthers his own interests. When that coincides with his official position, it's great. When not...
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend. 2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have. 3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure. 2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Interesting but I make Emily a longer price than she is. It balances the ticket for left/right but skews it badly otherwise replacing North of England working class with North London posh. SKS + Thornberry would look too (insert insulting word of choice about North London progressives). Both lawyers too. A gift for Farage. And he doesn't need any.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
Phillipson undoubtedly thinks she has it in the bag. But having a chat and confidence discussion with your 80 mates isn't necessarily going to give you quite the outcome you imagined.
Thornberry probably has a more realistic assessment of her own chances.
Powell I find impossible to judge. Her support seems thin, but Burnham seems to want her.
The other silly people are just silly, although as its Labour not to be entirely discounted.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Nice thinking, ensuring the little sponger isn’t going to be wanting to come back for decent grub in the future.
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Interesting but I make Emily a longer price than she is. It balances the ticket for left/right but skews it badly otherwise replacing North of England working class with North London posh. SKS + Thornberry would look too (insert insulting word of choice about North London progressives). Both lawyers too. A gift for Farage. And he doesn't need any.
Yes but she'sfrom London so she knows whats best for you. Stop whining
The Apple Puzzle On a tree, half of the apples have holes made by wasps. • One boy picked 3 apples at random and said “at least one of mine has no holes.” • Another boy picked 4 apples similarly. He showed me one of them at random, and it had no holes. He put it back. If you may take just one apple from either boy’s bag, from which boy do you have the better chance of picking an apple without holes?
Let's number the apples physically, so child A has apples numbered 1-3, child B has apples numbered 1-4.
We will designated G as good, B as bad
Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out: Bbb
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 12/24 to 12/21 by removing the 3 bads option = 57.1%
We have not used the numbers.
Child B removes 1 apple from the bag, at random, and finds it is good. For the sake of argument we'll say apple 1 has been removed, though it works exactly the same if apples 2 or 3 or 4 are found to be good.
This rules in (at equal probability): Gggg, gggb, ggbg, gbgg, ggbb, gbgb, gbbg, gbbb
(Notice how much more has been ruled out by saying apple #1 of the 4 is good rather than one of the three apples is good)
Shifts the probability of picking a good apple from 32/64 to 20/32 by removing all the bad apple #1 options) = 62.5%
But that isn't how it works for the 3 apple bag you have a 1/3 chance of picking the known good apple and 2/3 chances where you pick the apple with a 50/50 chance of being good. Which is 1/3+(2/3*1/2)=2/3 chance of being correct
For the 4 apple bag you have a 1/4 chance of picking the known good apple, and a 3/4 chance of picking an unknown apple with a 50/50 chance of it being good. Which means 1/4 chance of being lucky and a 3/4*1/2=2/8+3/8=5/8 chance of being correct
So I will stick to 66% chance of a good apple from bag A, 62.5% chance from bag B and if we had bag C (5 apples) a 60% chance with the chance tending to 50% as the bag gets more randomly picked apples placed in it.
Your homework is to keep rereading this bit of the post you're replying to until enlightenment hits you:
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability): ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Thornberry won't win. Her constituency is adjacent to Starmer's - not a good look to have a North London Leader and Deputy.
It will be Phillipson or McGovern, I think. Powell is too dull, and the other two can't get enough MP votes.
She is also married to a peer of the realm and couldn't be more removed from the hoi polloi if she married Prince Andrew. Her historic disapproval of England flags on houses also suggests she is not best placed to counter the flag party that is reform.
I don't believe so (depending on definition) - he is a Lord Justice of Appeal.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
It is an important part of growing up – discovering that your friends' families do things ever so slightly differently from yours. They might have strawberry rather than raspberry jam with their rice, for example.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
It is an important part of growing up – discovering that your friends' families do things ever so slightly differently from yours. They might have strawberry rather than raspberry jam with their rice, for example.
Sometimes different and wrong, though. I was served a pasta dish at a friend's house once where the bacon pieces had not had the rind cut off. Not the fat, the rind.
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
Interesting but I make Emily a longer price than she is. It balances the ticket for left/right but skews it badly otherwise replacing North of England working class with North London posh. SKS + Thornberry would look too (insert insulting word of choice about North London progressives). Both lawyers too. A gift for Farage. And he doesn't need any.
As with the apples in bags question we have 2 different questions here
1) who is likely to get enough MPs supporting them to hit the 80 signature starting point 2) out of those which get past hurdle 1 who is more left wing....
So the first question is will more than 1 person get past the first hurdle and if so will Emily be one of them.
(Serious point- it's a schmoozer schmoozing. Which is why he was appointed.)
This is the extract that is unfortunate for him
A 2019 internal report by the bank JP Morgan, filed to a New York court in 2023, said that Epstein kept a "particularly close relationship with Prince Andrew, the Duke of York and Lord Peter Mandelson, a senior member of the British government".
Order these carbs by preference: bread, potato, pasta, rice.
I mean, why eat rice if you don't have to?
Taters, bread, pasta, rice As a child i had the first two almost every day, spaghetti occasionally and the first rice I had was at 18 at a dinner hosted by my A level English teacher for all the English A level students post exams. Also my first curry. My sister had, a few years before, got my mum to do rice but me and mum weren't having that muck on our plates
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
It is an important part of growing up – discovering that your friends' families do things ever so slightly differently from yours. They might have strawberry rather than raspberry jam with their rice, for example.
Sometimes different and wrong, though. I was served a pasta dish at a friend's house once where the bacon pieces had not had the rind cut off. Not the fat, the rind.
So 73% do of 18 to 24s do NOT want to abolish the monarchy and only 27% do in other words, once you read past the TSE spin
Your arithmetic is off. Not to mention your comprehension and logic. The correct balanced figures are 23 and 27 respectively, once your spin is dumped in the wpb.
The Lib Dem’s are taking a leaf out of Norman Tebbit’s book in the eighties and pressuring the state broadcaster over its coverage for Reform making it clear the BBC needs to reduce covering them. They’ve just had their party conference for goodness sake.
I also cannot see how this does them any favours or harms Reform. It simply plays into the Reform claim of being an insurgent the main parties all oppose.
It really is quite unusual for the LDs to say anything worth paying attention to these days. It seems that they want to outshine everyone else in being rubbish.
Replace Davey with someone that's not an obvious womens candidate (cf Labour deputy) and they could be the next government. That they fail to realise this is astonishing.
On what basis? Davey in 2024 won the highest number of Liberal MPs since Asquith in 1923
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
It is an important part of growing up – discovering that your friends' families do things ever so slightly differently from yours. They might have strawberry rather than raspberry jam with their rice, for example.
Sometimes different and wrong, though. I was served a pasta dish at a friend's house once where the bacon pieces had not had the rind cut off. Not the fat, the rind.
Two possible political consequences.
One is that some of the discontent is just spluttering about change. Nobody likes social change they aren't controlling. Those "it was better in the 70s" memes are less wholesome than they seem.
The other is that quite a lot of change since the 70s has been an improvement.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
When I was about eight a friend's mother gave me a baked potato. I had no idea what it was or what to do with it. I thought it was a pear.
It is an important part of growing up – discovering that your friends' families do things ever so slightly differently from yours. They might have strawberry rather than raspberry jam with their rice, for example.
Sometimes different and wrong, though. I was served a pasta dish at a friend's house once where the bacon pieces had not had the rind cut off. Not the fat, the rind.
The rind is the best bit, surely?
Some idiots cut the rind off Stilton. There are monsters in the dark
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Nice thinking, ensuring the little sponger isn’t going to be wanting to come back for decent grub in the future.
Oi! I cooked it! There were vegetables and other side dishes!
(Though naturally enough, Mrs J's teleconference ended just as the food was ready, so she served up and got the plaudits for the food. Though as a pescetarian, she did not partake of the chicken.)
Leavitt on the Israeli strike in Doha: "Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the US ... does not advance Israel or America's goals. However, eliminating Hamas who has profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal."
I just find it hard to imagine Britain as a Republic.
Not even a banana republic?
Britain as a republic is not so hard to imagine. I agree it's hard to think of the United Kingdom as a republic.
One banana, two banana, Three banana four, four bananas make a bunch and so do many more.
Loved the Banana Splits. Real part of my childhood.
Banana split in one of those Italian ice cream parlours by the seaside. There was a wonderful one in Dunbar, but I remember North Berwick and Portobello too.
I'm back from my evening stroll and have walked about eight and a half thousand steps today. My right lower leg feels more tired than it did when I walked seventy thousand steps in a day. Even if its sore I'm going out for a morning walk, I want to break ten thousand tomorrow
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Nice thinking, ensuring the little sponger isn’t going to be wanting to come back for decent grub in the future.
Oi! I cooked it! There were vegetables and other side dishes!
(Though naturally enough, Mrs J's teleconference ended just as the food was ready, so she served up and got the plaudits for the food. Though as a pescetarian, she did not partake of the chicken.)
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
I was 18 before I had rice
When I was a kid, every week my mum would cook some concoction with lentils in it.
As a result, I *never* cook with lentils...
As for rice: it is simple to cook, but easy to muck up. We do it the Turkish way: fry some orzo in butter before adding the rice and water.
I just find it hard to imagine Britain as a Republic.
Well, it was at one point, it just wasn't a great success.
It went so badly that staunch Republican supporters couldn't think of a better way forward than inviting back the son of the monarch they'd executed. And shuffling about awkwardly staring at their feet while mumbling an apology.
Kinda embarrassing really.
That's true. And the Stuarts still made a mess the second time round. Albeit doing one or two useful things like promoting the Royal Navy (following on from the Commonwealth) (although letting it get burnt/captured) and helping establish the Royal Society of London.
Sure, but arguing about the royals cocking things up in the 17th century seems to ignore the modern reality that they don't have any power these days.
KCIII has failed to be the toxic monarch republicans expected and hoped for because a modern monarch doesn't have to do anything except turn up. If someone like Charles - who let's face it, it's both a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot - can manage not to bungle it, then it's hard to see the circumstances in which the British public would turn against the monarchy.
He isn't the toxic monarch I expected. I'm not sure I'd have used the phrase "a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot" but it certainly wasn't obvious before he took over what positive qualities he would bring to the role to make us like the monarchy - but I think you are right in that the bar is actually rather lower than we imagined. But it isn't infinitely lower. Low though the bar is, it's easy to imagine a monarch who fails to meet it - just look at his brother or his younger son.
KCIII was raising issues of affordability in housing in the 1980s - and pushed the Crown Estate to take action. Then got into building planned towns before that became fashionable.
He was big into environmentalism when that got you laughed at. See also sustainable agriculture…
He also raised issues of race before became fashionable - stuff like embarrassing the Army as to why there were no black soldiers in the guards. Reached out to other faiths etc.
On a number of big issues he was way ahead of the curve.
How many homeless people is he housing in his umpteen palaces???
Yes and taking dead people's inheritances/properties, bags of cash , etc. An absolute parasite.
I just find it hard to imagine Britain as a Republic.
Well, it was at one point, it just wasn't a great success.
It went so badly that staunch Republican supporters couldn't think of a better way forward than inviting back the son of the monarch they'd executed. And shuffling about awkwardly staring at their feet while mumbling an apology.
Kinda embarrassing really.
That's true. And the Stuarts still made a mess the second time round. Albeit doing one or two useful things like promoting the Royal Navy (following on from the Commonwealth) (although letting it get burnt/captured) and helping establish the Royal Society of London.
Sure, but arguing about the royals cocking things up in the 17th century seems to ignore the modern reality that they don't have any power these days.
KCIII has failed to be the toxic monarch republicans expected and hoped for because a modern monarch doesn't have to do anything except turn up. If someone like Charles - who let's face it, it's both a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot - can manage not to bungle it, then it's hard to see the circumstances in which the British public would turn against the monarchy.
He isn't the toxic monarch I expected. I'm not sure I'd have used the phrase "a bit of a shit and a bit of an idiot" but it certainly wasn't obvious before he took over what positive qualities he would bring to the role to make us like the monarchy - but I think you are right in that the bar is actually rather lower than we imagined. But it isn't infinitely lower. Low though the bar is, it's easy to imagine a monarch who fails to meet it - just look at his brother or his younger son.
Even Prince Harry has a higher net approval than Starmer or Farage who would likely be the choice of Presidents in a republic and Andrew is not even in the top 5 in the line of succession now
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Nice thinking, ensuring the little sponger isn’t going to be wanting to come back for decent grub in the future.
Oi! I cooked it! There were vegetables and other side dishes!
(Though naturally enough, Mrs J's teleconference ended just as the food was ready, so she served up and got the plaudits for the food. Though as a pescetarian, she did not partake of the chicken.)
Basmati, arborio, wild, sticky, jasmine or brown?
I only use two types of rice: basmati for side dishes, and arborio for risottos. Though I haven't made a risotto for a few months, as our son hates them. They're a meal to make when he's elsewhere. I've used brown rice once or twice, and never used Jasmine rice (aside from out of a Ben's Original packet)
Comments
But Epstein was like Saville, very good at protecting himself by smarming up to others in the public eye. I wouldn't take association as proof.
Swinney’s meeting Trump in the White House at 7pm.
Phillipson
Thornbury
McGovern
Ribero-Addy
But who are the other 2, so far?
Why I think Emily Thornberry will win
Keir Starmer would rather have Bridget Phillipson elected unopposed as deputy Labour leader, in order to avoid an election campaign that is bound to open divisions in the party.
But I think 80 Labour MPs will be prepared to have their names made public as nominating Emily Thornberry or Lucy Powell. Thornberry makes clear her intention to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side, mentioning welfare, Gaza, a wealth tax and special educational needs in her launch statement.
Powell is more loyalist in tone, but if she is up against Phillipson she will be driven to criticise the government too.
I have written today about why I don’t think Phillipson – or Alison McGovern, the other minister who is running – will win, despite being popular with party members. In the end, the members yearn for a more “left-wing” party and will vote for whichever candidate is most critical of what 64 per cent of them think is Starmer’s “wrong direction”.
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1965413486441497046?s=61
I've no idea what happens if none of them manage it.
Housing Minister Alison McGovern, former minister Lucy Powell, and backbenchers Paula Barker and Bell Ribeiro-Addy are also running in the race to replace Angela Rayner in the deputy role.
In order to run, the candidates will need to collect support from 80 MPs by 17:00 on Thursday - a tight timetable which has been criticised by some in Labour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rvqv9yg4eo
Three banana four,
four bananas make a bunch and
so do many more.
Loved the Banana Splits. Real part of my childhood.
@JohnRentoul Paula Barker has announced on Bluesky she is running for Labour deputy leader
I think it is Paula Barker.
I reckon Powell or Phillipson from those 6. Maybe Powell as she is now on the backbenches.
Interesting, but it does demonstrate that we are not all patriotic for the same things.
@JM_Szuba
Qatar's Interior Ministry says a member of the country's security forces was killed by the Israeli strikes which targeted Hamas officials in Doha this morning.
Scores on the doors - Bridget Phillipson appears to be leading the pack in Labour's deputy leadership race:
We've been keeping a tally of how MPs are planning to vote in the deputy leadership contest.
Most are publicly declare, some are off the record:
Bridget Phillipson - 19
Bell Ribeiro-Addy - 11
Lucy Powell - 10
Emily Thornberry - 4
Paula Barker - 4
Alison McGovern - 3
Official tally from Labour coming at 7pm.
I presume Paula Barker's application is in fact a mistake in that she, with her qualifications, was applying for a paper round?
It will be Phillipson or McGovern, I think. Powell is too dull, and the other two can't get enough MP votes.
remember she's a woman, a northerner (north London )and working class ( lawyers work apparently ).
Red wall nailed on
I would think that Phillipson is no one's poodle, and to the left of Starmer by some margin. It would make her unsackable.
For the 4 apple bag you have a 1/4 chance of picking the known good apple, and a 3/4 chance of picking an unknown apple with a 50/50 chance of it being good. Which means 1/4 chance of being lucky and a 3/4*1/2=2/8+3/8=5/8 chance of being correct
So I will stick to 66% chance of a good apple from bag A, 62.5% chance from bag B and if we had bag C (5 apples) a 60% chance with the chance tending to 50% as the bag gets more randomly picked apples placed in it.
But I have little doubt, given his track record, that Mandelson is only interested in what furthers his own interests. When that coincides with his official position, it's great. When not...
https://youtu.be/aJ0AeArx52g?si=08udwccBTQlDoDm4
Cookie said:
NickPalmer said:
> I had a minor stroke a couple of weeks ago and was very impressed by the reaction and follow-up by the local hospital - detailed feedback to the GP were followed up a day later by a call from the consultant to resolve pending queries that I had. There was no sense of any hurry in my putting the questions during the call. Some aspects of the NHS are weighed down by procedural complexity abd waiting lists, but if something is urgent they really get their skates on.
The immigration issue was also very starkly clear - 90% of the staff were clearly not of UK descent, and the system would instantly collapse without immigrants and the next generation of immigrants.<
> 1) Sorry to hear that Nick - customary understatement there but even a minor stroke isn't minor! Hope you're on the mend.
2) Glad the NHS treated you well. Your experience matches mine: in an emergency, the NHS is at its best. And the standard of care the NHS provides is often very good. The standard of customer service however is poor. It feels like the easier problem to solve, yet we never have.
3) The NHS would collapse without immigrants - this itself seems a bit of a flashing warning light? Ideally, we should be training our own population to do medical work - this isn't low-grade Brits-won't-do-it work, surely?<
1) Yes, thanks - feel back to normal, though cautious about it! I had a major stroke 15 months ago - total loss of memory etc. - so restrained about celebrating the minor one, but the treatment seems to be keeping off anything worse. I was semi-retired with lots of translation work, but AI has encroached to the point that the remaining work is really badly-paid (an interesting warning to anyone choosing a profession - don't become a translator), and actually I don't need it, so I'm fully retired now, remarried a few months ago, and living a life of idle pleasure.
2)-3) agreed! I suppose that budget-setters will always prioritise doctors and nurses over bureaucrats, but a smooth service needs bureaucrats too.
My son brought a waif home after school today, another boy in his year. I let the boy's mother he was here, then offered him a simple dinner of chicken and rice.
He is twelve.
It was the first time he had ever had rice.
I was flabbergasted.
Leonard Barden’s chess column celebrates 70 years and a place in history
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/sep/06/record-breaker-leonard-barden-chess-column-celebrates-70-years
Thornberry probably has a more realistic assessment of her own chances.
Powell I find impossible to judge. Her support seems thin, but Burnham seems to want her.
The other silly people are just silly, although as its Labour not to be entirely discounted.
Miss Piggy for Deputy Leader.
I mean, why eat rice if you don't have to?
Not sure how he survives this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy9dwe50leo
"Child A says, at least one of mine has no holes.
This rules in (at equal probability):
ggg, ggb, GBG, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg
and rules out:
Bbb"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/09/08/trump-sends-russian-dissidents-back-to-putin/
(Serious point- it's a schmoozer schmoozing. Which is why he was appointed.)
1) who is likely to get enough MPs supporting them to hit the 80 signature starting point
2) out of those which get past hurdle 1 who is more left wing....
So the first question is will more than 1 person get past the first hurdle and if so will Emily be one of them.
A 2019 internal report by the bank JP Morgan, filed to a New York court in 2023, said that Epstein kept a "particularly close relationship with Prince Andrew, the Duke of York and Lord Peter Mandelson, a senior member of the British government".
As a child i had the first two almost every day, spaghetti occasionally and the first rice I had was at 18 at a dinner hosted by my A level English teacher for all the English A level students post exams. Also my first curry. My sister had, a few years before, got my mum to do rice but me and mum weren't having that muck on our plates
Imagine a bag containing 4 balls. Each ball has a 50% chance of being white or black
What are your odds of selecting a white ball?
I select a white ball and show it to you and put it back.
What are your odds of selecting a white ball?
They haven't changed between your 2 attempts...
One is that some of the discontent is just spluttering about change. Nobody likes social change they aren't controlling. Those "it was better in the 70s" memes are less wholesome than they seem.
The other is that quite a lot of change since the 70s has been an improvement.
(Though naturally enough, Mrs J's teleconference ended just as the food was ready, so she served up and got the plaudits for the food. Though as a pescetarian, she did not partake of the chicken.)
Leavitt on the Israeli strike in Doha: "Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the US ... does not advance Israel or America's goals. However, eliminating Hamas who has profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal."
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lygbltqfdd2r
@breeallegretti
·
17m
First official Labour tally of deputy leadership nominations - Bridget Phillipson leads the pack!
Bridget Phillipson - 44
Lucy Powell - 35
Bell Ribeiro-Addy - 8
Emily Thornberry - 7
Paula Barker - 3
Alison McGovern - 2
These don't include the MPs themselves.
Most seem to have gone.
I doubt being just above Macron is much of a consolation
GBB (1/3 chance), GBG (2/3 chance), GGB (2/3 chance), GGG (100% chance) and all 4 options are equally plausible
So 1/4*1/3+2/4*2/3+1/4*3/3=1/12+6/12+2/12=8/12 or 2/3
For 4 apples outside the bag the options are
GBBB (1/4), GBBG (2/4), GBGB (2/4), GGBB (2/4), GGBG (3/4), GGGB (3/4), GGGG (4/4) and all 6 options are equally plausible
So 1/6*1/4+3/6*2/4+2/6*3/4+1/6*100% = 1/24+6/24+6/24+4/24=15/24=5/8
As a result, I *never* cook with lentils...
As for rice: it is simple to cook, but easy to muck up. We do it the Turkish way: fry some orzo in butter before adding the rice and water.
The question is which bag should you select from.
The odds of picking a good apple from either bag don't change based on the information presented.
Again, if I pick an apple from either bag and show it to you, when I put it back your odds of picking a good apple have not changed.
This is where it differs from the Monty Hall problem where 1 door is eliminated.
In this game the odds are fixed, and don't change. Both boys got lucky.
The question for you is, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?