Why Reform winning the next election isn’t the certainty some think it is – politicalbetting.com
Why Reform winning the next election isn’t the certainty some think it is – politicalbetting.com
By 43% to 37%, Britons would rather the next election resulted in a Labour government under Keir Starmer than a Reform UK government under Nigel Farageyougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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But there's the fear they won't, and then the country is in real trouble.
Oh, and first
SNP will be satisfied and would take that
Reform will be pretty happy but probably fall just short of second on those figures
Labour will be worried
LDs will be cock a hoop delighted, it takes them back to early Holyrood
Tories will simultaneously be horrified at vote loss but secretly relieved they are at least still in the hunt for say 3rd place and probably retain 2 or 3 constituencies
Greens, a bit disappointed
While most Tory voters will likely stick to voting Tory in seats the Tories were second at the last GE
Who does is a very different question
1 Why would Reform want to do a deal with the Tories? They're streets ahead and an increasing flow of Tory > Reform defections
2 Badenoch thinks she will win a majority of 704. Once binned and replaced by Jenrick he has a political IQ of 70.4. Once replaced by Cleverly, who knows
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
1: that margin is relatively tight. It suggests that there could be an element of stop Farage tactical voting that could help - but not significantly so.
2: the country is really, really fed up, and if that continues over the next few years, it’s really going to badly affect the incumbents chances.
And, as always, events.
I think Labour could win the next GE. If I was being forced to predict though, I’d say it’s getting quite hard to see any party getting an overall majority if this fragmentation continues.
The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
If Badenoch or Jenrick are Tory leader and it is a hung parliament with Reform and the Tories combined having a majority both would likely give Farage confidence and supply.
If Cleverly is Tory leader however he would likely stay neutral in a hung parliament, voting bill by bill. If Labour and the Tories had a majority combined but Labour and the LDs did not not even impossible Cleverly could form a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour to keep out Farage and Corbyn/Polanski and the SNP from power
Assumes a fact very much not in evidence.
They wanted to give the Tories a punishment beating. That bit worked. But I don’t think they were looking for a huge Labour majority. It’s just that FPTP almost completely broke down and delivered it anyway.
“I’m puzzled. Labourites tell us that Angela Rayner was only trying to look after her child which they quite rightly say is understandable.
But when a farmer tries to look after his children, they say he’s a tax dodger.”
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder.
https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
For bantz we need the following result
SNP 58
Lab 16
LD 16
Con 16
Ref 16
Green 3
Your Party 3
Alba 1
https://x.com/riley_gaines_/status/1963571669571612847
Pity Starmer is no Blair
However, this required she be given a prior warning. Only more serious breaches such as “threatening and intimidating language” would be gross misconduct and warrant summary dismissal.
Boyes found that Herbert was summarily fired because of her use of the word “dickheads” and ruled that the company had failed to follow proper disciplinary procedures.'
I'm actually suprised that the forced choice 'Lab or Reform' question is already as close as 43:37. Plenty for Reform to play for and the trajectory is still titing in their favour.
There is the 18% Conservative vote to squeeze further (it saddens me but they are done.) After November's budget and maybe another couple like it, with Labour's manifesto pledges on Taxes in tatters, the 52% who delivered Brexit (allowing for electoral churn ofcourse) will, broadly speaking, deliver for Reform.
The Rest is Entertainment on how hard it is to make money in the music business:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtvXLKWr3YA&t=400s
The Tories will die off before they embrace it, IMHO.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog to vist UK next week
Seats like Bishop Auckland, Rother Valley, Llanelli, as well as more classic marginals like Sittingborune & Sheppey and Dartford, would be lost easily.
ETA: There's debate, as we've often had on here, about whether farmers should be a special case, but I don't think anyone in Labour is accusing them of tax dodging. People who bought farmland as an inheritance tax dodge, maybe, but not actual long term farmers.
148 majority
https://members.parliament.uk/parties/commons
Another Downing Street hug by Starmer !!!!!
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/government-majority
Although TBF Hertzog is no Bibi.
In seats Labour won where the Tories were second last year, which is most of them, there is also of course no tactical reason for Tory voters to vote Reform even if LD and Green voters have a logical reason to tactically vote Labour.
At least a quarter to a third of 2024 Tories would also vote LD over Reform
People buying farms to avoid IHT are a reason why actual farmers can't afford land for farming.
Creating tax cutouts causes unintended/undesirable consequences.
Breaking:
Keir Starmer suggests he will sack Angela Rayner if the ethics watchdog advises that she has breached the ministerial code over her tax affairs
He tells
@ChrisMasonBBC
that he will 'act on whatever the report is that's put in front of me'
'What I'm saying is there's a clear procedure. I strengthened that procedure. It is now taking place. I am expecting a result pretty quickly. I do want it to be comprehensive, as you'd expect. And then of course I will act on whatever the report is that's put in front of me.'
That is not to say I dont want the boats stopped, because the subject is so toxic to the fabric of our nation end the boat crossings and it removes the oxygen from the debate - and on a side issue allows my sons colleagues in the RNLI to end worry about a possible large loss of life in the channel
If they handle it badly then the public will want a new government. At the moment, remarkably, Farage looks like the most plausible alternative government.
The Tory party will not die, and will revive at some point in the future. It may need a spasm of Reform electoral success first, but the electoral cycle will turn. And there will still be an ambitious group of people who will see the Conservatives as a route to a political career.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
Beat that Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin!
@alaynatreene
Trump, while speaking by phone with Zelensky & European leaders this morning, told them that Europe needs to stop buying Russian oil & put economic pressure on China as negotiations on ending the war continue, a White House official tells me
Ange took advice on Monday
Took some time to think on Tuesday
She was tearing up by Wednesday
And on Thursday and Friday and Saturday
Resigned on Sunday?
An investigation has begun into how the phone was planted near the front bench in a serious breach of parliamentary security
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/sex-noises-pmqs-prank-ww3dz0k9b (£££)
In an echo of the Gunpowder Plot, the device was discovered during a sweep before PMQs.