Bell ends up as the next Chancellor? – politicalbetting.com
Bell ends up as the next Chancellor? – politicalbetting.com
I am a fan of Torsten Bell, whilst I do not agree with his politics, he was thoughtful during his stint at the Resolute Foundation so I am not surprised with this promotion to help assist with the next budget.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/clyqe4ljew9t#Scorecard
That could be wrong, I’m still traumatised by my near death experience with the birds of Frankfurt, but if it is true then it suggests history is on my side here
Has done the Chief Sec job (often a precursor) and shows he is in favour with Starmer by getting this new role.
And I think it’s very clear that Starmer doesn’t want to lose Reeves, but I think it’s certainly plausible. At the moment she soaks up a lot of the criticism and she’s a useful shield for all the unpopular economic stuff, but tactically I am sure Starmer will hope the opportunity presents itself to get rid at some point before the next GE (assuming he fights it).
As opposed to the Resolute Desk.
It doesn't seem to me that there is yet a significant policy divide between Downing Street neighbours. They have a real issue convincing markets they have a deliverable medium term strategy... but, for now, it's a collective problem not a divide of the sort that kills Chancellors.
It could develop into that divide given Starmer has beefed up his Number 10 economic team just this week... but that's a slow burner, not something I expect to come to a head imminently.
The average May poll rating was above the current Labour average and had recovered to mid 20s within a month. We know how well his recovery went.......
So, with SKS Labour in worse shape and huge economic headwinds (Brown's nadir was in a major recession) I think they struggle to recover.
If Labour are in similar shape in May they'll be utterly mullered everywhere - Brown in 2009 Euros saw Labour come sixth in Cornwall behind Mebyon Kernow. Losses in London could be apocalyptic as could the Welsh and Scottish results
But then in the T20, world class international, sorry! Essex county pro Paul Walter smashed him for 19 1st over.
Perhaps we are both wishcasting.
Reform’s rise means it is the first time in a generation that we’ve had a possible 4 way split. 5 if you count the Greens. 6 if you count the Corbyn/Sultana party. Possibly more if you count the Home Nations’ parties.
Labour are certainly in trouble on current form. However they could also - quite viably - get a majority under FPTP, if A) there’s even a small ‘Vote Labour to keep Farage out’ effect and B ) the Tories/Reform stay divided.
Expect tactical voting in abundance, also.
We’re in uncharted territory and that’s not taken into account enough on here. It really isn’t impossible that Labour squeak through on something like 28/29% and it’s very difficult to predict what that means in terms of seats/ the makeup of the next government.
The very fact that Reform themselves are streets ahead on around 30-35% should say it all
Let's say Labour are on 20% and Reform on 30%. That's a big gap. But in previous times, you'd expect the main opposition party to be on at least 40% if Labour/the governing party were on 20% - a huge gap. Clumsily, what I'm trying to say is that those who argue there is no way back for Labour on current polling focus too much on Labour's dire score rather than on the size of the gap. We're in relatively new, highly volatile territory. And there's 4 years to go....
Hence they'll struggle. We will see how manfully and successfully or otherwise
Edit - regardless of the crowded field they need to recover from avg 20% to have any chances at all
I really don't think that precedent is a good guide for the current situation, though. The party leading in the polls is the joint-7th largest party in the Commons. We don't have much experience of this sort of situation.
I think it's pretty clear that Labour won a landslide because the voters saw that as the only way to obliterate the Tories. I think it's still possible to see a Labour majority after the next election if the electorate reluctantly conclude that they're still the least-worst option available. The contempt that Labour are held in is certainly broad, but it may prove to be shallow.
Or they might end up 4th after the next election.
Both are probably decent administrators deep down (though swamped by the task of governing), both aren’t great public communicators, and both were poor strategists. They both also found themselves landed in the middle of problems not entirely of their own making. I preferred TMay though, albeit that was probably due to being instinctively more inclined to the right of centre.
But recovery is required and we can identify from previous examples how well recovery has gone from these sort if very very low support levels. And we don't know if Labour have bottomed out yet (I suspect not and the record polling low will go over the next couple of months - possibly ditto the Tories)
I just had a look at where we were at the equivalent point into the Coalition Government. So, about June/July 2011. It was Labour Leads of around 6-7%, broadly speaking.
On Polling day in 2015, It was the exact opposite - a Tory lead of around 6-7%.
Moreover, how much of this vote will be efficiently concentrated in 2029? The Lib Dems on 15% might get a ton more seats than the Tories on 17%!
Personally, it won’t excite many people, but I think as long as the Tories don’t merge / pact with Reform, FPTP makes it extremely favourable for even an underperforming Labour government to get, at worst, a minority / coalition.
If there is a Tory/Reform pact of some kind, however? All bets are off
This is one reason why I think discussion about Reeves replacement is futile. Chances are a replacement would be worse.
The motivation to get the Tories out in 2024 bolstered the Labour vote.
The motivation to keep Farage out in 2029 might actually be bigger…
By far the most likely alternative outcome is a Labour led government. The massive obstacle to this outcome is the current state of Labour MPs. Labour cannot possibly form the next government unless they perform acceptably well between now and 2028/9. No-one can see a route to successful government for the next 3-4 years without spending cuts and tax rises. Both cuts and rises will affect the poorer and the middling sorts - (even if the tax rises are also on the rich and super rich.)
The evidence that Labour MPs will vote for this is currently absent.
That does not rule out the sort of recovery that the Irish government enjoyed, after Sinn Fein had enjoyed huge leads, mid-term.
We already knew that Starmer would say anything and break promises to get to be leader, and to win an election, and so there was an expectation that he would break any promises to do whatever was necessary to sort out the political and economic mess. It seemed obvious that the tax promises had to be broken immediately, under cover of bogus discoveries about the true state of things. The silly idiots made all the bogus disoveries, but then didn't capitalise early. Now they look stuck, unless Reeves can do some late promise breaking in October. Last chance.
@owenjonesjourno
The obsessive flag stuff is completely un-British, by the way.
The French and Americans parade their flags so much because they’re products of revolution and symbolise popular sovereignty.
Covering everything in flags is, ironically, importing an alien foreign tradition."
https://x.com/owenjonesjourno/status/1962819017648783755
Will he invade
* Chicago
* Canada
* Greenland or
* Venezuela
if he doesn’t get the Nobel award?
The big disadvantage RefCon have is that they don't have an agreed "we'll go here, you go there" map, either explicitly or implicitly. Of course that could change, in which case all bets are off.
I was arrested for insulting the trans mob"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-was-arrested-for-insulting-the-trans-mob
First impressions matter. Labour’s weren’t good, and they’ve not helped themselves since.
I agree with everyone who has said Labour can win the next election. Politics is simply too much in a state of flux to say or predict otherwise. However, I do think that the fundamentals aren’t lining up on their side: They haven’t managed to get the unpopular stuff out of the way in Year 1 (the Year 2 budget looks to be worse than the first despite Reeves’ silly protestations that she “wasn’t coming back for more taxes”).
They also face an increasingly parlous debt situation which threatens to tip us over into a full crisis at some point. If we do hit crisis point, Labour won’t be able to avoid wider tax rises, spending cuts and pensions reform, some of which will be right but none of which will be popular, and may hit at precisely the wrong point of the political cycle.
Reform couldn't afford 28% being as inefficient as last years 14% was.
For the former big beasts, getting 35% in 'xxx' seats is a much easier prospect than a full national attack, but how much are they prepared to turn into wasteland for them requiring a decade or two to work back into?
The Tories this time are free from trying to defend a majority and can target holding on, abandoning some /many areas they had begun to progress in. Its Labour that have the burden of mass defence and will likely suffer the same sort of catastrophic proportionate declines Sunaks Tories did. I suspect they'll completely fall apart in seats they came second in in 2024 - Locally NW Norfolk, Mid Norfolk and Broadland would be e amples of where I think they'll disintegrate as resource goes into defending undefendable landslide seats
He must be a Tory plant.
While Boston Dynamics is still stuck on doing flips w/ its Quadruped robots, Unitree dogs are hauling around 250 kg payload.
It's amazing to see BD give up its 1st mover advantage
https://x.com/tphuang/status/1962882603683303664
Some card: "What, the identity of the Commander-in-Chief?"
Although, I am following this myself, as you'll have gathered -something does feel to have occurred and I'm wondering what.
The Tories are more Muskovite than Reform these days. Teslas all around!
That’s why it is the greatest magazine - indeed possibly the greatest thing of any kind, including astral bodies - in the history of the cosmos
Mind you, quite a bit of Boston Dynamics demos have been er… tuned up.
*remember the semi annual launch of the iPhone Killer?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy08ee77klzo
Indian chap on charity round-the-world ride had his bike swapped for a crime number.
https://x.com/chiuauateardrop/status/1877009486885323168?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
"There are murmurs that instead the “exciting announcement” will be about renaming the Department of Defense to the “Department of War” – it’s former name previously discontinued in 1947.
A number of news outlets reported ahead of Labor Day that the White House had been working up plans for the reverted name, citing a White House official."
That latest Yougov is RefCon 49 LLG 45. That’s a big swing from the 10%+ leads for LLG before the election but not as significant as the government on 20% would imply. The Greens are regularly polling 10% or more which is unprecedented, and the Lib Dems are a good 4-5% higher than they were in mid term a few years ago.
What that means for an election all really depends on how much the Tories recover vs Reform, and how much Labour gets back tactically from the Greens. Another reason the Farage-lite approach from Starmer is a risk.
Sir Keir Starmer has streamlined his priorities for government by scrapping a unit that was intended to oversee his flagship missions as part of his latest reset
The five missions were central to the prime minister’s vision for government when he was in opposition and included kickstarting economic growth, making Britain a clean energy superpower and building an NHS fit for the future…
…It means that Starmer has now announced more than 30 different priorities since entering office, including an array of “foundations”, “missions”, “first steps”, “milestones” and “economic growth pillars”.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/7ee9d7e8-8fa2-4b6d-8cfa-dce1fdcd376d?shareToken=824acb7830c000f6daf54653a28a4608
The Tories look out of it, and without the resource to make the attempt. It's astonishing, but they are not a serious party with serious MPs and serious members. This leaves only Reform and Labour together to come to a % points chance score of about 85 of most seats/leading next government.
Current betting seems to split that approx Reform 50%, Labour 35%. That's too high for Reform. Time, lack of good people, the USA, and future contingencies are not their friend. Therefore Labour at 35% are too low. Reform are the lay.
Polis statement:
“The arrest was made by officers from the MPS aviation unit. It is routine for officers policing airports to carry firearms. These were not drawn or used at any point during the arrest.”
That will reassure the markets
https://x.com/hugogye/status/1962895554930688288?s=61
'Awesome'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2enem0dm4jo