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What future for hyper-local TV news? – politicalbetting.com

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  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,005
    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,748
    Have we talked about this possibility ?

    Is a Jeremy Corbyn run for London Mayor locked in? You’d have to assume the Mamdani success would make it too tempting for him not to go for, and if it’s a four-way split he must be the favourite. Scary: our city could get a *lot* more decrepit and dangerous than it is right now!
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1961362330148655145
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,685

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Amorin body language and cowering in his dugout is astonishing and frankly he should resign for the sake of his own mental health

    And players seeing this must be astonished at the lack of leadership

    Losing young players is not a good look and Amorin lack of flexibility is sub optimal
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,685
    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,240
    edited August 29
    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    Reality check, insofar as anyone cares about reality nowadays.


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    Polling from @Moreincommon_
    on Lucy Connolly

    More than half think her sentence was too lenient or about right. Only a third that it was too harsh.

    Only 18% think politicians should associate themselves her, while 51% think they should actively distance themselves from her.
    9:20 am · 29 Aug 2025

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1961343068214628388

    How many are confusing her with Lucy Letby, the convicted murderer of babies in a neonatal unit?
    I hope the general public aren't that stoopid, but perhaps MiC should have made it clear it was the brunette chubby racist Lucy rather than the blond slightly less chubby murdery Lucy.
    Lucy Letby binges jail wages on junk food and moans 'I'm fattest I've ever been'
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lucy-letby-binges-jail-wages-35594904
    Gutter-press epitomised.
    Indeed, she gets £56 a week from doing some prison jobs ie less than the £92 a week Job Seeker's Allowance now pays or the £400 a month Universal Credit pays a single person and is serving a whole life sentence.
    You should bring in asylum seekers allowances for the ultimate red-top Trifecta.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,107
    dixiedean said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Since you can't get Moyes...
    Mourinho and Solskaer both had better win percentages at Man Utd than Moyes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,687

    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I like to support journalism but this feels like a silly waste of money when locals will do it for free on social media

    Like they did in Dundee...
    And they are still doing it, and digging out the real story, right now. Go have a look
    Can you summarise or provide links so I can understand what the “real story” is?
    The "real story" is how a minor incident that would barely reach a local newspaper in decades past became a worldwide moral panic about asylum seekers attacking young Scottish girls (despite the fact no asylum seekers was involved, and the male involved was a Christian).

    It has all the features of how international Social Media controlled by the algorithms of the Nerd Reich values clicks over truth, and why we need proper journalism.
    I do a great deal of looking at old newspapers for research projects and the sheer volume of local journalism and reportage intil the end of the C20 just makes me want to cry. Sure, they had their axes to grind, political, owners' interests, and so on. But the contrast today is heartbreaking.
    Local newspapers, especially. When I was first elected a councillor, there was a press table in the corner of the committee room, and at most committee meetings there'd be two local paper journalists there, looking for stories, and if we wanted to flag anything to the press it was easy to talk them through the story after the meeting. Even though this went in the late 90s, they'd still send journalists to the main council meetings into the 21st century, and there'd be journalists who actually wrote stories and investigated stuff. By the time I finished, you just emailed the press release to the paper and it would either appear, often word for word as you'd sent it, or it wouldn't, and you never dealt with any real people, or saw them at meetings, at all.

    To be fair, here on the island, we do actually still have an active local paper, just about, which claims to be the most-read in the country. But that sort of thing has disappeared in many places.
    Friend of mine is a retired journalist, who spent his life in local newspapers, ending up as editor of what was once the most significant local one. He's saddened by what it has now become; doesn't really understand why anyone buys it.
    I don't like this new world we are creating.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,609
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    Reality check, insofar as anyone cares about reality nowadays.


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    Polling from @Moreincommon_
    on Lucy Connolly

    More than half think her sentence was too lenient or about right. Only a third that it was too harsh.

    Only 18% think politicians should associate themselves her, while 51% think they should actively distance themselves from her.
    9:20 am · 29 Aug 2025

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1961343068214628388

    How many are confusing her with Lucy Letby, the convicted murderer of babies in a neonatal unit?
    I hope the general public aren't that stoopid, but perhaps MiC should have made it clear it was the brunette chubby racist Lucy rather than the blond slightly less chubby murdery Lucy.
    Lucy Letby binges jail wages on junk food and moans 'I'm fattest I've ever been'
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lucy-letby-binges-jail-wages-35594904
    Gutter-press epitomised.
    Indeed, she gets £56 a week from doing some prison jobs ie less than the £92 a week Job Seeker's Allowance now pays or the £400 a month Universal Credit pays a single person and is serving a whole life sentence.
    You should bring in asylum seekers allowances for the ultimate red-top Trifecta.
    She is getting her board and lodging, of course!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,005

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    I think it could go either way . As for political cost , yes if they do win in the short term but it’s really at the end of the day whether they get the hotels closed in the longer term .
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,687
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Something remarkable is happening in France

    The PM, who will lose his job next week, went live on TV:

    France's debt was accumulated to guarantee the "comfort of the boomers" at the expense of the next generation

    The truth is easily said when you are politically finished

    https://x.com/Valen10Francois/status/1961068133055086892

    The sooner we acknowledge this truth, the better.

    Is it true though? Or rather, is that the only available framing?

    Could it also be said the group that has most benefited is the upper middle class whose family incomes and assets have increased markedly since the 1990s? The gap between top and bottom salaries has multiplied, the number of dual-income families likewise, and this is a multiplicative effect as lawyers marry lawyers and shop-workers marry shop-workers (so two £100k salaries against two £25k salaries) and in turn this has allowed these families to buy assets whose value has also increased.
    So you want to hammer them with tax then like Melenchon?
    No, but I am suspicious the anti-oldies framing originates from Russian trolls stirring up intergenerational conflict. There are many poor pensioners, and calling them boomers is taken from America whose postwar baby boom came earlier than ours. And I suspect my analysis captures more truth than yours.
    I don't disagree, I also didn't agree with the assessment on boomers either.

    France already taxes the wealthy quite a lot, going even further with a wealth tax like Hollande did just sees them go abroad.

    Its problem is not that it undertaxes the rich, nor even the number of boomers it has beyond raising the French retirement age from 64 (which even then had huge opposition when raised from 62).

    It is more that France has 56% of its gdp spent by the government and an average working week of just 36 hours but neither Melenchon nor Le Pen and Bardella want to do much about that so Macron and Barnier and now Bayrou can't get the shift in a more Thatcherite direction Macron and LRs want through
    At least in France you can see where all the money goes. The towns and cities gleam, the infra is fantastic, the trains whizz by

    Where does our money go?
    Pensions and debt interest.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,297

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,755
    Nigelb said:

    Russia will run out of refineries far quicker than Ukraine will run out of tower blocks.

    That Russia is willing to accept dozens of military casualties to inflict a few civilians casualties is a very good ratio for the world.

    I don't know why there's any debate about this, it's been demonstrated many times before. If you're bombing random civilians and the other side is bombing your fuel refineries, you lose the war. Cities have an incredible capacity to soak up damage and still function.

    Many German cities took a very serious pounding in WWII, far greater than Kyiv is taking from Russia, and the output of their industries did not appreciably decline, nor did civilian morale collapse. The only raids that actually had a significant effect were the fire-storm raids on cities like Dresden and Cologne, but Russia does not possess the capability to mount anything on that scale without using nuclear weapons.

    On the other hand, payback from hitting fuel infrastructure is immediate and out of all proportion to the effort involved. Russia is already seeing fuel supply problems, another few months of this and every sector of their economy will struggle to function.

    It's a genius move by Ukraine. They can bomb Russian refineries all day, but Ukraine gets much of its fuel from countries Russian can't hit without provoking a direct response from NATO.
    OTOH, Russia can, and almost certainly will start attacking power stations again, as winter approaches.
    Indeed. But the scuttleutt is that Ukraine has done a fair amount of work to harden their energy infrastructure,. Russia may be able to do them more harm, but it'll take much more effort than it did in the winters of 2022 or 2023.

    Incidentally, the following is an interesting dataset of Ukrainian electricity imports and exports, particularly if you take it ack to 2020.

    https://map.ua-energy.org/en/datasets/56df70b0-6bc1-4c7d-a82f-284cf723438d
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,898

    Taz said:

    Appeals court decision today on the hotel in Essex. The govt position is the asylum seekers take priority over the locals. Something their legal team made quite clear. I saw it on Twitter and assumed it was a joke so didn’t comment on it or post it here.

    Be interesting to see how the decision goes. Popcorn time if the govt win.

    So the national interest (in the short term, these people have to go somewhere) overrides the local one (not near me). Nimbies are bad, in other words.

    Politically, it's not a popular line, but it may well be the right one.
    will hasten/ensure the demise of this useless government,, monkeys could do a better job
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,319

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    The average Trump voter couldn't care less about the relative power of the US abroad as they have little interest in abroad and many will not even have travelled much beyond their state in the South or Midwest or mountain West let alone have a passport and been abroad

    Except 'abroad' is where much of their wealth and stuff comes from. As both decline, perhaps awareness will rise to compensate
    Well we will see if Trump's tariffs revive US manufacturing as his voters hope for or just lead to inflation
    We already know the answer to that
    I've seen one British exporter to US consumers offer their US customers a credit refund (to be used for future purchases) equal to the tariff charge of 10%. Another is simply eating the cost.

    I think people are underestimating the extent to which exporters to the US will absorb the tariff cost, or make their customers in other markets share the cost. The US market is too big and important for companies to simply try and pass all of the cost of tariffs on.

    So I would expect that the inflationary impact in the US will be lower than you think, but there could well be an inflationary impact elsewhere as well.
    Yes, I think that is correct.

    Not least because for the latest change, de minimis, the US are making the postal service from the exporting country responsible for remitting tariffs. Lots of people I have spoken to, who sell D2C, will eat the cost.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,609

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    Poor sods..... the asylum seekers I mean...... haven't they had enough problems in their lives?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,319
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    I think it could go either way . As for political cost , yes if they do win in the short term but it’s really at the end of the day whether they get the hotels closed in the longer term .
    They shouldn't have appealled, IMO.

    If the plan was to close them by next year anyway, just work out some temporary measures.

    The optics of the appeal have ensured that Labour are going to get pounded in the red wall...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,685

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    I fully expect a Farage press conference charging the government with siding with the migrants against the local people if the government wins

    As the hotel was appealing anyway I still do not understand why the government took this action as well

    Anyway it could go either way but Sky has been ramping up the story all morning and seemingly cannot wait for the 2.00pm verdict
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,620

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Supposedly Man United are sounding out Xavi to take over, I think Southgate would be a better appointment though, he won't set the world alight or win the league but just as he did with the England national side he will restore player pride in the team and get them playing together properly. May even fluke a cup or two along the way. Man United's culture is just rotten, the players are a law unto themselves, the manager is out of his depth, the majority owners are parasites, the new owner and CEO seem completely clueless on how to run a football club and swings from sacking dinner ladies to save a few thousand pounds to overpaying for Sesko by at least £20m compared to what Arsenal were negotiating. I guess they fixed the Old Trafford waterfall at least...

    A manager like Southgate, given the right level of power, can bring calm to the mess and get a tune out of the existing squad of players to compete for European spots in the league. Amorim just seems so out of his depth in a proper league that I'm surprised he was even considered in the first place. The other option is to wait it out, hope he does't get you relegated this season and then bring in Poch after the world cup.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,898

    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    Reality check, insofar as anyone cares about reality nowadays.


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    Polling from @Moreincommon_
    on Lucy Connolly

    More than half think her sentence was too lenient or about right. Only a third that it was too harsh.

    Only 18% think politicians should associate themselves her, while 51% think they should actively distance themselves from her.
    9:20 am · 29 Aug 2025

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1961343068214628388

    How many are confusing her with Lucy Letby, the convicted murderer of babies in a neonatal unit?
    I hope the general public aren't that stoopid, but perhaps MiC should have made it clear it was the brunette chubby racist Lucy rather than the blond slightly less chubby murdery Lucy.
    Lucy Letby binges jail wages on junk food and moans 'I'm fattest I've ever been'
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lucy-letby-binges-jail-wages-35594904
    Gutter-press epitomised.
    Indeed, she gets £56 a week from doing some prison jobs ie less than the £92 a week Job Seeker's Allowance now pays or the £400 a month Universal Credit pays a single person and is serving a whole life sentence.
    You should bring in asylum seekers allowances for the ultimate red-top Trifecta.
    She is getting her board and lodging, of course!
    UC get free housing as well
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,748
    This goes beyond absurd.
    It's basically returning US public health to the 19th C.

    The White House named Jim O’Neill, RFK Jr.’s top deputy, as acting CDC director after firing Susan Monarez. The move paves the way for Kennedy’s anti-vaccine agenda to reshape federal health policy.
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1961173063057461305
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,104
    MattW said:

    Did we do this one? I've not been tracking so diligently; this is a serious one.

    Bomp ... bomp ... bomp ...

    Reform councillor Robert Bloom, who has been in his North Northamptonshire Council post for just 117 days, has resigned after a neighbour alleged he used appalling racial slurs toward her family.
    Cllr Bloom (Lloyds and Corby Old Village) has today left his role following accusations he used the ‘n’ word against a black family who live close by to him.

    He had been in post for just under four months after he was part of Reform’s council-winning team in May’s local elections.

    A neighbour told this newspaper that he shouted the word ‘n*****’ at her repeatedly, said he would set the far-right English Defence League on her and told her there’d be ‘black body bags’

    ...
    Cllr Martin Griffiths, the Reform leader of North Northamptonshire Council, said this evening (Tuesday): “I fully respect Councillor Robert Bloom’s decision to resign from the council, which he has done for personal reasons.

    "The role of an elected member can be very rewarding but it can also be challenging at times, particularly when balancing the demands of the role with personal commitments.

    https://www.northantstelegraph.co.uk/news/people/corby-reform-councillor-resigns-over-serious-racism-allegations-5289085

    Weird statement from the leader, unless the councillor had made extensive personal commitments to the EDL perhaps.
  • Nigelb said:

    Have we talked about this possibility ?

    Is a Jeremy Corbyn run for London Mayor locked in? You’d have to assume the Mamdani success would make it too tempting for him not to go for, and if it’s a four-way split he must be the favourite. Scary: our city could get a *lot* more decrepit and dangerous than it is right now!
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1961362330148655145

    Presumably the next London mayoral election will again be under the Supplementary Vote system, following passage of the Devolution Bill.

    That changes the calculus for both Corbyn and Reform and fairly clearly makes it harder for them (I think extremely hard for Reform and fairly hard for Corbyn) as they won't be able to get by on a split vote and will need a good number of second preferences, which is tougher on the extremes.

    There's also the initial step for Corbyn of London borough elections next May - clearly, his appetite for it would diminish rather a lot if his new party doesn't make a lot of progress then.

    Also worth noting that I believe we discussed here the other day that the Devolution Bill prevents someone being MP and Mayor of London. Doesn't stop Corbyn running, but he'd need to stand down as an MP if he won, which is a little odd as leader of his new party.

    For all these reasons, "locked in" seems a bit excessive - he'll no doubt weigh it up, but I'm not sure he'll do it when push comes to shove.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,898

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    Poor sods..... the asylum seekers I mean...... haven't they had enough problems in their lives?
    4 * hotels , 3 meals a day , iphones, laptops , pocket money , on call medical and dental services , methinks they are doing better than many working people
  • eekeek Posts: 31,074
    edited August 29

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    I said that before the season began and I don't think replacing the manager is going to solve Man U's issues..
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,297

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    I fully expect a Farage press conference charging the government with siding with the migrants against the local people if the government wins

    As the hotel was appealing anyway I still do not understand why the government took this action as well

    Anyway it could go either way but Sky has been ramping up the story all morning and seemingly cannot wait for the 2.00pm verdict
    I suspect Nigel is itching for the government to lose. Nothing would suit his agenda more than many thousands of asylum seekers being turfed out onto the streets with no way of monitoring them. Everyone crime, real or imagined, could then be attributed to an asylum seeker and Nigel would be swept to power.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,748
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Russia will run out of refineries far quicker than Ukraine will run out of tower blocks.

    That Russia is willing to accept dozens of military casualties to inflict a few civilians casualties is a very good ratio for the world.

    I don't know why there's any debate about this, it's been demonstrated many times before. If you're bombing random civilians and the other side is bombing your fuel refineries, you lose the war. Cities have an incredible capacity to soak up damage and still function.

    Many German cities took a very serious pounding in WWII, far greater than Kyiv is taking from Russia, and the output of their industries did not appreciably decline, nor did civilian morale collapse. The only raids that actually had a significant effect were the fire-storm raids on cities like Dresden and Cologne, but Russia does not possess the capability to mount anything on that scale without using nuclear weapons.

    On the other hand, payback from hitting fuel infrastructure is immediate and out of all proportion to the effort involved. Russia is already seeing fuel supply problems, another few months of this and every sector of their economy will struggle to function.

    It's a genius move by Ukraine. They can bomb Russian refineries all day, but Ukraine gets much of its fuel from countries Russian can't hit without provoking a direct response from NATO.
    OTOH, Russia can, and almost certainly will start attacking power stations again, as winter approaches.
    Indeed. But the scuttleutt is that Ukraine has done a fair amount of work to harden their energy infrastructure,. Russia may be able to do them more harm, but it'll take much more effort than it did in the winters of 2022 or 2023.

    Incidentally, the following is an interesting dataset of Ukrainian electricity imports and exports, particularly if you take it ack to 2020.

    https://map.ua-energy.org/en/datasets/56df70b0-6bc1-4c7d-a82f-284cf723438d
    True, or disinformation about a decoy target ?

    A nearly-complete Turkish drone factory in Kyiv sustained serious damage in its fourth Russian attack since February, threatening millions in investment and months of personnel training just weeks before planned production launch.
    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1961128649677066526
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,685

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    I fully expect a Farage press conference charging the government with siding with the migrants against the local people if the government wins

    As the hotel was appealing anyway I still do not understand why the government took this action as well

    Anyway it could go either way but Sky has been ramping up the story all morning and seemingly cannot wait for the 2.00pm verdict
    I suspect Nigel is itching for the government to lose. Nothing would suit his agenda more than many thousands of asylum seekers being turfed out onto the streets with no way of monitoring them. Everyone crime, real or imagined, could then be attributed to an asylum seeker and Nigel would be swept to power.
    The only problem with that is power is 4 years away and a lot can happen in that time
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,265
    Malcolm Rifkind is pretty much the last person I expected to recommend leaving the ECHR.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,104
    MaxPB said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Supposedly Man United are sounding out Xavi to take over, I think Southgate would be a better appointment though, he won't set the world alight or win the league but just as he did with the England national side he will restore player pride in the team and get them playing together properly. May even fluke a cup or two along the way. Man United's culture is just rotten, the players are a law unto themselves, the manager is out of his depth, the majority owners are parasites, the new owner and CEO seem completely clueless on how to run a football club and swings from sacking dinner ladies to save a few thousand pounds to overpaying for Sesko by at least £20m compared to what Arsenal were negotiating. I guess they fixed the Old Trafford waterfall at least...

    A manager like Southgate, given the right level of power, can bring calm to the mess and get a tune out of the existing squad of players to compete for European spots in the league. Amorim just seems so out of his depth in a proper league that I'm surprised he was even considered in the first place. The other option is to wait it out, hope he does't get you relegated this season and then bring in Poch after the world cup.
    The problem is the club, not the managers or players. Amorim built a Sporing side capable of beating Man City 4-1 in the Champions League, he was a perfectly reasonable appointment. The club has broken him as it has done countless managers and players.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,810
    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    Poor sods..... the asylum seekers I mean...... haven't they had enough problems in their lives?
    4 * hotels , 3 meals a day , iphones, laptops , pocket money , on call medical and dental services , methinks they are doing better than many working people
    You forgot the free Motability BMW X5s they all get too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,319

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    I fully expect a Farage press conference charging the government with siding with the migrants against the local people if the government wins

    As the hotel was appealing anyway I still do not understand why the government took this action as well

    Anyway it could go either way but Sky has been ramping up the story all morning and seemingly cannot wait for the 2.00pm verdict
    I suspect Nigel is itching for the government to lose. Nothing would suit his agenda more than many thousands of asylum seekers being turfed out onto the streets with no way of monitoring them. Everyone crime, real or imagined, could then be attributed to an asylum seeker and Nigel would be swept to power.
    The only problem with that is power is 4 years away and a lot can happen in that time
    Indeed; things could get worse for Lab and Con!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,549
    Are there any odds on Farage NOT being RefUK leader at the next election?

    I can't see much except 2.4 on him being replaced in 2029 or later, plus 2.02 on "during 2028". Not very attractive !

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-party-leaders/year-nigel-farage-replaced-as-reform-leader-betting-1.237956720
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,609
    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    Poor sods..... the asylum seekers I mean...... haven't they had enough problems in their lives?
    4 * hotels , 3 meals a day , iphones, laptops , pocket money , on call medical and dental services , methinks they are doing better than many working people
    I don't believe the hotels are operating at 4* levels of service, TBH, Malc. And I thought it was one meal per day and fairly basic at that.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Atlantic reports Trump is ‘disappointed’ with Zelensky & Europe, calling their demands unrealistic. He just wants the war over ‘no matter how’, even if it means Ukraine losing land. Now he pushes for a Putin-Zelensky summit only if he’s at the table.
    To me, Trump is openly aligning with Putin, eroding any trust in the US government.

    https://x.com/olddog100ua/status/1961295032167629191

    Putin won't accept any peace deal without gaining some Ukrainian territory anyway and Zelensky won't accept any loss of land beyond Crimea and maybe not even that.

    The best that could be hoped for is a ceasefire on current lines of occupation
    If we could help take territory off Russia, that would even up the negotiations. We’re too feart, though, because of the threat of nuclear war.
    Well given that might lead to the death of most of our population in a nuclear war that is hardly surprising.

    This is not the Crimean War when it might have been an option as nukes had not yet been invented
    How do you think usage of nukes would help Russia, in the tactical or strategic sense?

    Go on.

    The answer is why Putin has not used them already.
    If Putin thought he would lose the war outright he could well use at least a tactical nuke, as he knows he would lose the Presidency if he lost the war outright so would have nothing to lose
    Indeed. The suggestion that Putin won't use nukes because he hasn't already used them is a logical fail. Of course, it's very unlikely he'd use them under the current circumstances, but if the time comes when Russia is losing badly, then the calculus may well change.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,190
    edited August 29
    Nigelb said:

    This goes beyond absurd.
    It's basically returning US public health to the 19th C.

    The White House named Jim O’Neill, RFK Jr.’s top deputy, as acting CDC director after firing Susan Monarez. The move paves the way for Kennedy’s anti-vaccine agenda to reshape federal health policy.
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1961173063057461305

    ...
  • MattW said:

    Are there any odds on Farage NOT being RefUK leader at the next election?

    I can't see much except 2.4 on him being replaced in 2029 or later, plus 2.02 on "during 2028". Not very attractive !

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-party-leaders/year-nigel-farage-replaced-as-reform-leader-betting-1.237956720

    Yes. William Hill are offering 11/2 on him NOT being leader at the General Election (and 1/10 on him leading them into the GE).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,104

    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    Poor sods..... the asylum seekers I mean...... haven't they had enough problems in their lives?
    4 * hotels , 3 meals a day , iphones, laptops , pocket money , on call medical and dental services , methinks they are doing better than many working people
    You forgot the free Motability BMW X5s they all get too.
    Don't forget the free bottomless prosecco once the courts ruled champagne was just a bit too extragavant.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,549

    MattW said:

    Are there any odds on Farage NOT being RefUK leader at the next election?

    I can't see much except 2.4 on him being replaced in 2029 or later, plus 2.02 on "during 2028". Not very attractive !

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-party-leaders/year-nigel-farage-replaced-as-reform-leader-betting-1.237956720

    Yes. William Hill are offering 11/2 on him NOT being leader at the General Election (and 1/10 on him leading them into the GE).
    That's nearly interesting.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,139
    MaxPB said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Supposedly Man United are sounding out Xavi to take over, I think Southgate would be a better appointment though, he won't set the world alight or win the league but just as he did with the England national side he will restore player pride in the team and get them playing together properly. May even fluke a cup or two along the way. Man United's culture is just rotten, the players are a law unto themselves, the manager is out of his depth, the majority owners are parasites, the new owner and CEO seem completely clueless on how to run a football club and swings from sacking dinner ladies to save a few thousand pounds to overpaying for Sesko by at least £20m compared to what Arsenal were negotiating. I guess they fixed the Old Trafford waterfall at least...

    A manager like Southgate, given the right level of power, can bring calm to the mess and get a tune out of the existing squad of players to compete for European spots in the league. Amorim just seems so out of his depth in a proper league that I'm surprised he was even considered in the first place. The other option is to wait it out, hope he does't get you relegated this season and then bring in Poch after the world cup.
    Completely bonkers. The one thing they haven't tried is a proven PL manager. Iraola or Glasner would make a lot of sense. Frank would have been perfect. Xavi and Southgate would be awful appointments.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,139
    Maccabi Tel Aviv going to Villa Park could be interesting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,898

    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Joshua Rozenberg has a good write up of the Epping case . I originally thought that the government would have a problem winning the appeal but reading more of the detail it seems much more finely balanced .

    https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/hotel-ruling-today

    I expect it will win but at what political cost is another question entirely
    Presumably the government appealed because they concluded there'd be a bigger political cost if they threw the asylum seekers onto the streets.
    Poor sods..... the asylum seekers I mean...... haven't they had enough problems in their lives?
    4 * hotels , 3 meals a day , iphones, laptops , pocket money , on call medical and dental services , methinks they are doing better than many working people
    You forgot the free Motability BMW X5s they all get too.
    would not surprise me one bit Pete
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,542
    Foxy said:

    An interesting topic.

    Sadly local news is now mostly via Facebook, with all it's manipulation, click bait and algorithms.

    For most people in Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire, the place to go for instant local news updates is the Facebook page Fubar, an absolute gem of a page for instant local updates and you never know what is going to feature on it from one day to the next..

    But sadly so many newspapers whether they be local or national have had to go behind an online subscription paywall these days to help them survive because they unlike the Daily Mail don't tend to concentrate on OTT celebrity gossip above the news which drives traffic to their site and therefore attracts the level of advertising revenue that keeps their site free to view. I do my bit to help support the newspaper industry, I subscribe to our local newspaper in the North East the Press & Journal, Scotland wide the Herald as well as the Times as a UK national newspaper and I definitely feel like I get my moneysworth from them and the Spectator.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,190
    "THE Scottish Greens have announced their new co-leaders following a ballot of the party membership.

    Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer were confirmed as the two who will lead the party into the 2026 Holyrood elections."

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25425291.scottish-greens-announce-new-co-leaders-membership-ballot/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=290825

    Unfortunate error in the pic caption ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,828
    Nigelb said:

    This goes beyond absurd.
    It's basically returning US public health to the 19th C.

    The White House named Jim O’Neill, RFK Jr.’s top deputy, as acting CDC director after firing Susan Monarez. The move paves the way for Kennedy’s anti-vaccine agenda to reshape federal health policy.
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1961173063057461305

    @madhupai.bsky.social‬

    “Kennedy would be less hazardous if he decided to do cardiac surgery. Then he would kill people only one at a time rather than his current ability to kill by the thousands. Why is it that killing a single person is seen as murder but killing masses is excused if you are a politician?”

    Dr Bill Foege
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,828
    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,969
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    A story about the US:

    Alabama town’s first Black mayor, who had been locked out of office, wins election

    https://apnews.com/article/alabama-newbern-first-black-mayor-4ee90489413deb40a8d302fc9457905b

    Vital news for us here in Britain.
    Boulay, have you noticed how we sometimes discuss politics in other countries? Maybe you noticed the headers on the 26th, 20th, 18th, 15th, 7th and 3rd of August, for example?

    I think it's a story that says a lot about the US and politics in the US, and thus can inform people's betting on US elections.
    I have noticed we discuss politics in other countries. I have however missed people posting nuggets about minor political situations in towns in uninfluential states, I do not see stories about mayors in France where there has been a racial problem, I do not see tweets reposted about an issue with a mayor in an afrikaaner area of South Africa.

    It doesn’t say anything new about US politics especially “at the moment” as this sort of crap went on for decades and decades under administrations of both stripes. This story will have the tiniest micro effect on anyone’s betting on Us elections and that is being wildly generous.

    What it is however is the bizarre belief that these stories have anything to do with us, that they bear any sort of lesson for us about whether we are slightly superior or “be careful, this is coming to your town under reform”. Reposting makes people feel good, “look I care about an irrelevant place in the US being racist because Trump”. That’s what the reposting here is really about.

    So when you are posting stories about discrimination in small places in France or Australia or Brazil and how they might effect anyone who is thinking of betting on their elections then I will take your argument - until then I will believe you posted it as some sort of virtuous mirror as it’s a really irrelevant story to us, here and in the UK.
    Thank you for your feedback, boulay! I thought it was an interesting story that illustrates aspects of US politics, that thus informs readers' understanding of US politics, but, yes, these are very longstanding issues, not something new. I often find links people post here interesting, but I'm sorry you didn't find this one relevant. I wasn't particularly thinking in terms of the story showing the UK is superior, but maybe you have some insight into my subconscious that I don't! We do have a special relationship with the US and tend to focus on US politics much more than French, Australian or Brazilian.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,107

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    A story about the US:

    Alabama town’s first Black mayor, who had been locked out of office, wins election

    https://apnews.com/article/alabama-newbern-first-black-mayor-4ee90489413deb40a8d302fc9457905b

    Vital news for us here in Britain.
    Boulay, have you noticed how we sometimes discuss politics in other countries? Maybe you noticed the headers on the 26th, 20th, 18th, 15th, 7th and 3rd of August, for example?

    I think it's a story that says a lot about the US and politics in the US, and thus can inform people's betting on US elections.
    I have noticed we discuss politics in other countries. I have however missed people posting nuggets about minor political situations in towns in uninfluential states, I do not see stories about mayors in France where there has been a racial problem, I do not see tweets reposted about an issue with a mayor in an afrikaaner area of South Africa.

    It doesn’t say anything new about US politics especially “at the moment” as this sort of crap went on for decades and decades under administrations of both stripes. This story will have the tiniest micro effect on anyone’s betting on Us elections and that is being wildly generous.

    What it is however is the bizarre belief that these stories have anything to do with us, that they bear any sort of lesson for us about whether we are slightly superior or “be careful, this is coming to your town under reform”. Reposting makes people feel good, “look I care about an irrelevant place in the US being racist because Trump”. That’s what the reposting here is really about.

    So when you are posting stories about discrimination in small places in France or Australia or Brazil and how they might effect anyone who is thinking of betting on their elections then I will take your argument - until then I will believe you posted it as some sort of virtuous mirror as it’s a really irrelevant story to us, here and in the UK.
    Thank you for your feedback, boulay! I thought it was an interesting story that illustrates aspects of US politics, that thus informs readers' understanding of US politics, but, yes, these are very longstanding issues, not something new. I often find links people post here interesting, but I'm sorry you didn't find this one relevant. I wasn't particularly thinking in terms of the story showing the UK is superior, but maybe you have some insight into my subconscious that I don't! We do have a special relationship with the US and tend to focus on US politics much more than French, Australian or Brazilian.
    Was a bit angry about something when I responded so probably a bit ott in reaction.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,128

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Atlantic reports Trump is ‘disappointed’ with Zelensky & Europe, calling their demands unrealistic. He just wants the war over ‘no matter how’, even if it means Ukraine losing land. Now he pushes for a Putin-Zelensky summit only if he’s at the table.
    To me, Trump is openly aligning with Putin, eroding any trust in the US government.

    https://x.com/olddog100ua/status/1961295032167629191

    Putin won't accept any peace deal without gaining some Ukrainian territory anyway and Zelensky won't accept any loss of land beyond Crimea and maybe not even that.

    The best that could be hoped for is a ceasefire on current lines of occupation
    If we could help take territory off Russia, that would even up the negotiations. We’re too feart, though, because of the threat of nuclear war.
    Well given that might lead to the death of most of our population in a nuclear war that is hardly surprising.

    This is not the Crimean War when it might have been an option as nukes had not yet been invented
    How do you think usage of nukes would help Russia, in the tactical or strategic sense?

    Go on.

    The answer is why Putin has not used them already.
    If Putin thought he would lose the war outright he could well use at least a tactical nuke, as he knows he would lose the Presidency if he lost the war outright so would have nothing to lose
    Indeed. The suggestion that Putin won't use nukes because he hasn't already used them is a logical fail. Of course, it's very unlikely he'd use them under the current circumstances, but if the time comes when Russia is losing badly, then the calculus may well change.
    It might. But if you give too much weight to that fear you risk taking the 'Russia defeat' outcome off the table.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,468
    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,265
    edited August 29
    Foxy said:

    An interesting topic.

    Sadly local news is now mostly via Facebook, with all it's manipulation, click bait and algorithms.

    The good news in my area is that a local newspaper has started up after the previous one (which had been running for about 200 years) closed down during the Covid lockdowns. The bad news is that it isn't anywhere near as good as the old one used to be. But something is better than nothing. It makes me wonder what happened to all the journalists who used to work at it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,468
    Andy_JS said:

    Malcolm Rifkind is pretty much the last person I expected to recommend leaving the ECHR.

    It is becoming the consensus.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,116
    Carnyx said:

    "THE Scottish Greens have announced their new co-leaders following a ballot of the party membership.

    Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer were confirmed as the two who will lead the party into the 2026 Holyrood elections."

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25425291.scottish-greens-announce-new-co-leaders-membership-ballot/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=290825

    Unfortunate error in the pic caption ...

    Maybe they identify as a woman and a man, respectively
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,128

    MattW said:

    Are there any odds on Farage NOT being RefUK leader at the next election?

    I can't see much except 2.4 on him being replaced in 2029 or later, plus 2.02 on "during 2028". Not very attractive !

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-party-leaders/year-nigel-farage-replaced-as-reform-leader-betting-1.237956720

    Yes. William Hill are offering 11/2 on him NOT being leader at the General Election (and 1/10 on him leading them into the GE).
    That's not a terrible price given the political instability of current times.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,289
    Carnyx said:

    "THE Scottish Greens have announced their new co-leaders following a ballot of the party membership.

    Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer were confirmed as the two who will lead the party into the 2026 Holyrood elections."

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25425291.scottish-greens-announce-new-co-leaders-membership-ballot/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=290825

    Unfortunate error in the pic caption ...

    Surprised they didn't re-elect Slater. I don't follow the machinations very closely mind you. I know she got flack for the bottle scheme - but that mostly seemed to be from outside. I heard her interviewed a couple of times on the radio and she came over quite well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,830
    I have just tried the SECOND BEST PUMPKIN SEED OIL IN THE WORLD
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,828
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
    We can probably add North Korea, and perhaps Russia to that list
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826

    Barnesian said:

    ClippP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    On other local news:

    The UK government did not do its own analysis of the cost of the biggest reorganisation of councils in England for decades, the BBC has learned.

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said "a significant amount of money" could be saved by merging councils in 21 areas into single authorities.

    Rayner's department, the ministry of local government, based its cost estimates on a 2020 report commissioned by the County Council Network (CCN) that said £2.9bn could be saved over five years.

    But the CCN has since revised its analysis and now says the reorganisation could make no savings and actually cost money in some scenarios.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9wxnlnrxdo

    I wonder how much time Rayner spends doing her job compared to her own housing dealings:

    Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, has been accused of avoiding £40,000 in stamp duty on her new flat by the sea after she told authorities it was her primary residence.

    Rayner, who is also the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, was said to have removed her name from the official deed to her house in Greater Manchester weeks before buying an £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex.

    According to The Telegraph, Rayner would have had to pay £70,000 in stamp duty on a second property, so the change saved her £40,000. She is thought to have paid only £30,000.

    She also told Tameside council in Greater Manchester that the house in her constituency was still her main home, before telling Brighton and Hove council that her new flat was her second home, which would change her status for council tax.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/angela-rayner-avoided-40000-stamp-duty-on-new-seaside-flat-76m7g6zkb

    As we know Rayner has a long history of dubious housing transactions.

    I’m awaiting for the ‘more targetting of an aspirational working class woman’ spin on this from her fans.
    It's the different taxation of different residences for stamp duty and council tax that is the problem. If both were replaced by a property tax of perhaps 1% of value each year then the problem goes away.
    Dr. Foxy, what do you think the cost would be of assessing the value of every single house every year?

    It may well be prohibitive, in both political and financial terms.
    You wouldn't do a valuation every year, for crying out loud.
    Up until 1990 there was an annual property tax on value. It was considered to be a cost-effective tax, it was dispensed with for ideological not economic reasons.
    Ok, so, how often?

    Individual assessments will still take a lot of time and cost initially. And the increase in cost to taxpayers will be politically difficult. It's the same reason council bands haven't been reformed, even though they should've been years ago.
    Just use the last sale price plus changes to the HPI. That has the added bonus of incentivising people to improve their homes, as well as not seek out places with a hot housing market.

    I've just checked it on my flat and it's pretty accurate at an LA level based on my latest mortgage valuation. I guess you could get more granular data too.
    Good morning

    House price data is much more available today then when the bands were originally introduced, so it should not be impossible to revalue all homes though a difficulty may arise in those homes which have had extensive changes

    We need a lot more bands, as the present system is not only unfair but ludicrous, with the wealthy getting away with not paying anything like enough
    But I don't think we should tax home improvements at all. The only additional bit I want to tax is general price inflation from the point at which you bought the property. I'd even apply a negative tax rate for solar, batteries, EV chargers and heating pumps.

    Cost 10 years ago: £200k
    Improvements: £50k
    Green improvements: £20k
    HPI increase over 10 year: £60k

    Value of home under my tax = 200 + 60 - 20 = 240k.
    The problem is if you have a tax based on property value then creating exceptions makes the process more complex

    Back to The Land!!!! Lib Dems, where are you all?
    A lot of Lib Dems were knocking up in West Hampstead yesterday!


    Very basic take - Tories losing about 40% of their votes to a new Reform candidate, Labour losing more than half their vote, going 2/3rd LibDem, 1/3rd Green.
    Mark Pack, on his site, is understandably very chuffed about it. Less so with the Broxtowe result, of course; no LibDem candidate. If there had been, of course, maybe Tory votes would have been siphoned off and Reform could have won.
    I think your summary is probably right although someone like MattW would have local insight.

    I wonder if that’s why the Lib Dem’s didn’t stand.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,139
    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,969

    Any chance of the mods putting a ban on any further discussion of Lucy Connolly?

    Apart from anything else, it's just so fucking boringly repetitive.
    Though I guess I've just contributed........

    Maybe all Lucys could be banned. Lucy Connolly. Lucy Letby. The 2014 Luc Besson film "Lucy".
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826
    tlg86 said:

    Maccabi Tel Aviv going to Villa Park could be interesting.

    As long as the can get past the rubbish in the streets.

    It’s all a mess round there, as it is by the Blues ground.

    Villa fans aren’t hostile. It’s all kick and clap with the odd high pitched squeal of ‘Villa’
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,973

    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    Reality check, insofar as anyone cares about reality nowadays.


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    Polling from @Moreincommon_
    on Lucy Connolly

    More than half think her sentence was too lenient or about right. Only a third that it was too harsh.

    Only 18% think politicians should associate themselves her, while 51% think they should actively distance themselves from her.
    9:20 am · 29 Aug 2025

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1961343068214628388

    How many are confusing her with Lucy Letby, the convicted murderer of babies in a neonatal unit?
    I hope the general public aren't that stoopid, but perhaps MiC should have made it clear it was the brunette chubby racist Lucy rather than the blond slightly less chubby murdery Lucy.
    Lucy Letby binges jail wages on junk food and moans 'I'm fattest I've ever been'
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lucy-letby-binges-jail-wages-35594904
    Gutter-press epitomised.
    Indeed, she gets £56 a week from doing some prison jobs ie less than the £92 a week Job Seeker's Allowance now pays or the £400 a month Universal Credit pays a single person and is serving a whole life sentence.
    You should bring in asylum seekers allowances for the ultimate red-top Trifecta.
    She is getting her board and lodging, of course!
    Blond Lucy will still have to contribute to that even when she great her massive pay out for wrongful conviction.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Is the EPL not a league where a few big clubs dominate ?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,617
    edited August 29

    Any chance of the mods putting a ban on any further discussion of Lucy Connolly?

    Apart from anything else, it's just so fucking boringly repetitive.
    Though I guess I've just contributed........

    Maybe all Lucys could be banned. Lucy Connolly. Lucy Letby. The 2014 Luc Besson film "Lucy".
    TBF, "Lucy" was a fairly ropy movie...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,909

    MaxPB said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Supposedly Man United are sounding out Xavi to take over, I think Southgate would be a better appointment though, he won't set the world alight or win the league but just as he did with the England national side he will restore player pride in the team and get them playing together properly. May even fluke a cup or two along the way. Man United's culture is just rotten, the players are a law unto themselves, the manager is out of his depth, the majority owners are parasites, the new owner and CEO seem completely clueless on how to run a football club and swings from sacking dinner ladies to save a few thousand pounds to overpaying for Sesko by at least £20m compared to what Arsenal were negotiating. I guess they fixed the Old Trafford waterfall at least...

    A manager like Southgate, given the right level of power, can bring calm to the mess and get a tune out of the existing squad of players to compete for European spots in the league. Amorim just seems so out of his depth in a proper league that I'm surprised he was even considered in the first place. The other option is to wait it out, hope he does't get you relegated this season and then bring in Poch after the world cup.
    The problem is the club, not the managers or players. Amorim built a Sporing side capable of beating Man City 4-1 in the Champions League, he was a perfectly reasonable appointment. The club has broken him as it has done countless managers and players.
    Nothing improves until the Glazers are gone. Hopefully they'll realise that they'll get more for the club selling it before they're relegated rather than waiting until afterwards.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,139
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Is the EPL not a league where a few big clubs dominate ?
    Nope.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,755

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Atlantic reports Trump is ‘disappointed’ with Zelensky & Europe, calling their demands unrealistic. He just wants the war over ‘no matter how’, even if it means Ukraine losing land. Now he pushes for a Putin-Zelensky summit only if he’s at the table.
    To me, Trump is openly aligning with Putin, eroding any trust in the US government.

    https://x.com/olddog100ua/status/1961295032167629191

    Putin won't accept any peace deal without gaining some Ukrainian territory anyway and Zelensky won't accept any loss of land beyond Crimea and maybe not even that.

    The best that could be hoped for is a ceasefire on current lines of occupation
    If we could help take territory off Russia, that would even up the negotiations. We’re too feart, though, because of the threat of nuclear war.
    Well given that might lead to the death of most of our population in a nuclear war that is hardly surprising.

    This is not the Crimean War when it might have been an option as nukes had not yet been invented
    How do you think usage of nukes would help Russia, in the tactical or strategic sense?

    Go on.

    The answer is why Putin has not used them already.
    If Putin thought he would lose the war outright he could well use at least a tactical nuke, as he knows he would lose the Presidency if he lost the war outright so would have nothing to lose
    Indeed. The suggestion that Putin won't use nukes because he hasn't already used them is a logical fail. Of course, it's very unlikely he'd use them under the current circumstances, but if the time comes when Russia is losing badly, then the calculus may well change.
    Wow.

    Firstly, the time Putin may have used them is around April or autumn 2022. The former when it was clear that the war was going to bog down; the latter when the Ukrainians launched an offensive which retook vast tracts of conquered territory. I can only imagine how Putin must have felt as hammerblow after hammerblow fell on his fascist, imperialist regime. Now, he is more used to Russia's belittled position and repeated failures. There is no shock.

    Secondly, as I've asked others, to zero reply: what would he gain from their use? Both tactical and strategic are unsuited to this war as it stands, particularly as all his WMD-trained troops and equipment are pushing up the sunflowers.

    Thirdly, how much territory are *you* willing to give up because of your fear of his nukes? Because if you give him an inch because of that fear, he'll take the Baltics.

    But you'll be fine, won't you?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,549
    edited August 29
    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    ClippP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    On other local news:

    The UK government did not do its own analysis of the cost of the biggest reorganisation of councils in England for decades, the BBC has learned.

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said "a significant amount of money" could be saved by merging councils in 21 areas into single authorities.

    Rayner's department, the ministry of local government, based its cost estimates on a 2020 report commissioned by the County Council Network (CCN) that said £2.9bn could be saved over five years.

    But the CCN has since revised its analysis and now says the reorganisation could make no savings and actually cost money in some scenarios.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9wxnlnrxdo

    I wonder how much time Rayner spends doing her job compared to her own housing dealings:

    Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, has been accused of avoiding £40,000 in stamp duty on her new flat by the sea after she told authorities it was her primary residence.

    Rayner, who is also the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, was said to have removed her name from the official deed to her house in Greater Manchester weeks before buying an £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex.

    According to The Telegraph, Rayner would have had to pay £70,000 in stamp duty on a second property, so the change saved her £40,000. She is thought to have paid only £30,000.

    She also told Tameside council in Greater Manchester that the house in her constituency was still her main home, before telling Brighton and Hove council that her new flat was her second home, which would change her status for council tax.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/angela-rayner-avoided-40000-stamp-duty-on-new-seaside-flat-76m7g6zkb

    As we know Rayner has a long history of dubious housing transactions.

    I’m awaiting for the ‘more targetting of an aspirational working class woman’ spin on this from her fans.
    It's the different taxation of different residences for stamp duty and council tax that is the problem. If both were replaced by a property tax of perhaps 1% of value each year then the problem goes away.
    Dr. Foxy, what do you think the cost would be of assessing the value of every single house every year?

    It may well be prohibitive, in both political and financial terms.
    You wouldn't do a valuation every year, for crying out loud.
    Up until 1990 there was an annual property tax on value. It was considered to be a cost-effective tax, it was dispensed with for ideological not economic reasons.
    Ok, so, how often?

    Individual assessments will still take a lot of time and cost initially. And the increase in cost to taxpayers will be politically difficult. It's the same reason council bands haven't been reformed, even though they should've been years ago.
    Just use the last sale price plus changes to the HPI. That has the added bonus of incentivising people to improve their homes, as well as not seek out places with a hot housing market.

    I've just checked it on my flat and it's pretty accurate at an LA level based on my latest mortgage valuation. I guess you could get more granular data too.
    Good morning

    House price data is much more available today then when the bands were originally introduced, so it should not be impossible to revalue all homes though a difficulty may arise in those homes which have had extensive changes

    We need a lot more bands, as the present system is not only unfair but ludicrous, with the wealthy getting away with not paying anything like enough
    But I don't think we should tax home improvements at all. The only additional bit I want to tax is general price inflation from the point at which you bought the property. I'd even apply a negative tax rate for solar, batteries, EV chargers and heating pumps.

    Cost 10 years ago: £200k
    Improvements: £50k
    Green improvements: £20k
    HPI increase over 10 year: £60k

    Value of home under my tax = 200 + 60 - 20 = 240k.
    The problem is if you have a tax based on property value then creating exceptions makes the process more complex

    Back to The Land!!!! Lib Dems, where are you all?
    A lot of Lib Dems were knocking up in West Hampstead yesterday!


    Very basic take - Tories losing about 40% of their votes to a new Reform candidate, Labour losing more than half their vote, going 2/3rd LibDem, 1/3rd Green.
    Mark Pack, on his site, is understandably very chuffed about it. Less so with the Broxtowe result, of course; no LibDem candidate. If there had been, of course, maybe Tory votes would have been siphoned off and Reform could have won.
    I think your summary is probably right although someone like MattW would have local insight.

    I wonder if that’s why the Lib Dem’s didn’t stand.
    I made a comment on one aspect.

    Broxtowe last year had 2 sets of Independents, one lot had exited from Labour, and the other lot were longer standing. They seemed to be not-competing with each other's incumbents. I am not sure of the tone of the other lot. Currently it is RefUK free aiui.

    Broxtowe itself is an area which reaches quite deep into Nottingham (as far in as the University), and into the surrounding countryside on the Derby side. That's from big council estates, prosperous suburban town, suburban and and rural. Lots of students, especially Chinese if it has not changed.

    At present Council reorganisation will be a big thing.

    Tricky to call :smiley:.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Is the EPL not a league where a few big clubs dominate ?
    Nope.
    Clearly

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League#Champions
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    ClippP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    On other local news:

    The UK government did not do its own analysis of the cost of the biggest reorganisation of councils in England for decades, the BBC has learned.

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said "a significant amount of money" could be saved by merging councils in 21 areas into single authorities.

    Rayner's department, the ministry of local government, based its cost estimates on a 2020 report commissioned by the County Council Network (CCN) that said £2.9bn could be saved over five years.

    But the CCN has since revised its analysis and now says the reorganisation could make no savings and actually cost money in some scenarios.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9wxnlnrxdo

    I wonder how much time Rayner spends doing her job compared to her own housing dealings:

    Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, has been accused of avoiding £40,000 in stamp duty on her new flat by the sea after she told authorities it was her primary residence.

    Rayner, who is also the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, was said to have removed her name from the official deed to her house in Greater Manchester weeks before buying an £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex.

    According to The Telegraph, Rayner would have had to pay £70,000 in stamp duty on a second property, so the change saved her £40,000. She is thought to have paid only £30,000.

    She also told Tameside council in Greater Manchester that the house in her constituency was still her main home, before telling Brighton and Hove council that her new flat was her second home, which would change her status for council tax.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/angela-rayner-avoided-40000-stamp-duty-on-new-seaside-flat-76m7g6zkb

    As we know Rayner has a long history of dubious housing transactions.

    I’m awaiting for the ‘more targetting of an aspirational working class woman’ spin on this from her fans.
    It's the different taxation of different residences for stamp duty and council tax that is the problem. If both were replaced by a property tax of perhaps 1% of value each year then the problem goes away.
    Dr. Foxy, what do you think the cost would be of assessing the value of every single house every year?

    It may well be prohibitive, in both political and financial terms.
    You wouldn't do a valuation every year, for crying out loud.
    Up until 1990 there was an annual property tax on value. It was considered to be a cost-effective tax, it was dispensed with for ideological not economic reasons.
    Ok, so, how often?

    Individual assessments will still take a lot of time and cost initially. And the increase in cost to taxpayers will be politically difficult. It's the same reason council bands haven't been reformed, even though they should've been years ago.
    Just use the last sale price plus changes to the HPI. That has the added bonus of incentivising people to improve their homes, as well as not seek out places with a hot housing market.

    I've just checked it on my flat and it's pretty accurate at an LA level based on my latest mortgage valuation. I guess you could get more granular data too.
    Good morning

    House price data is much more available today then when the bands were originally introduced, so it should not be impossible to revalue all homes though a difficulty may arise in those homes which have had extensive changes

    We need a lot more bands, as the present system is not only unfair but ludicrous, with the wealthy getting away with not paying anything like enough
    But I don't think we should tax home improvements at all. The only additional bit I want to tax is general price inflation from the point at which you bought the property. I'd even apply a negative tax rate for solar, batteries, EV chargers and heating pumps.

    Cost 10 years ago: £200k
    Improvements: £50k
    Green improvements: £20k
    HPI increase over 10 year: £60k

    Value of home under my tax = 200 + 60 - 20 = 240k.
    The problem is if you have a tax based on property value then creating exceptions makes the process more complex

    Back to The Land!!!! Lib Dems, where are you all?
    A lot of Lib Dems were knocking up in West Hampstead yesterday!


    Very basic take - Tories losing about 40% of their votes to a new Reform candidate, Labour losing more than half their vote, going 2/3rd LibDem, 1/3rd Green.
    Mark Pack, on his site, is understandably very chuffed about it. Less so with the Broxtowe result, of course; no LibDem candidate. If there had been, of course, maybe Tory votes would have been siphoned off and Reform could have won.
    I think your summary is probably right although someone like MattW would have local insight.

    I wonder if that’s why the Lib Dem’s didn’t stand.
    I made a comment on one aspect.

    Broxtowe last year had 2 sets of Independents, one lot has exited from Labour, and the other lot were longer standing. They seemed to be not-competing with each other's incumbents. I am not sure of the tone of the other lot. Currently it is RefUK free aiui.

    Broxtowe itself is an area which reaches quite deep into Nottingham (as far in as the University), and into the surrounding countryside on the Derby side. That's from big council estates, prosperous suburban town, suburban and and rural. Lots of students, especially Chinese if it has not changed.

    At present Council reorganisation will be a big thing.

    Tricky to call :smiley:.
    My only knowledge of the area is when I used to visit a car/rail seating manufacturer there.

    It was not one of the best suppliers I’ve ever dealt with.
  • Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    ClippP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    On other local news:

    The UK government did not do its own analysis of the cost of the biggest reorganisation of councils in England for decades, the BBC has learned.

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said "a significant amount of money" could be saved by merging councils in 21 areas into single authorities.

    Rayner's department, the ministry of local government, based its cost estimates on a 2020 report commissioned by the County Council Network (CCN) that said £2.9bn could be saved over five years.

    But the CCN has since revised its analysis and now says the reorganisation could make no savings and actually cost money in some scenarios.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9wxnlnrxdo

    I wonder how much time Rayner spends doing her job compared to her own housing dealings:

    Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, has been accused of avoiding £40,000 in stamp duty on her new flat by the sea after she told authorities it was her primary residence.

    Rayner, who is also the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, was said to have removed her name from the official deed to her house in Greater Manchester weeks before buying an £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex.

    According to The Telegraph, Rayner would have had to pay £70,000 in stamp duty on a second property, so the change saved her £40,000. She is thought to have paid only £30,000.

    She also told Tameside council in Greater Manchester that the house in her constituency was still her main home, before telling Brighton and Hove council that her new flat was her second home, which would change her status for council tax.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/angela-rayner-avoided-40000-stamp-duty-on-new-seaside-flat-76m7g6zkb

    As we know Rayner has a long history of dubious housing transactions.

    I’m awaiting for the ‘more targetting of an aspirational working class woman’ spin on this from her fans.
    It's the different taxation of different residences for stamp duty and council tax that is the problem. If both were replaced by a property tax of perhaps 1% of value each year then the problem goes away.
    Dr. Foxy, what do you think the cost would be of assessing the value of every single house every year?

    It may well be prohibitive, in both political and financial terms.
    You wouldn't do a valuation every year, for crying out loud.
    Up until 1990 there was an annual property tax on value. It was considered to be a cost-effective tax, it was dispensed with for ideological not economic reasons.
    Ok, so, how often?

    Individual assessments will still take a lot of time and cost initially. And the increase in cost to taxpayers will be politically difficult. It's the same reason council bands haven't been reformed, even though they should've been years ago.
    Just use the last sale price plus changes to the HPI. That has the added bonus of incentivising people to improve their homes, as well as not seek out places with a hot housing market.

    I've just checked it on my flat and it's pretty accurate at an LA level based on my latest mortgage valuation. I guess you could get more granular data too.
    Good morning

    House price data is much more available today then when the bands were originally introduced, so it should not be impossible to revalue all homes though a difficulty may arise in those homes which have had extensive changes

    We need a lot more bands, as the present system is not only unfair but ludicrous, with the wealthy getting away with not paying anything like enough
    But I don't think we should tax home improvements at all. The only additional bit I want to tax is general price inflation from the point at which you bought the property. I'd even apply a negative tax rate for solar, batteries, EV chargers and heating pumps.

    Cost 10 years ago: £200k
    Improvements: £50k
    Green improvements: £20k
    HPI increase over 10 year: £60k

    Value of home under my tax = 200 + 60 - 20 = 240k.
    The problem is if you have a tax based on property value then creating exceptions makes the process more complex

    Back to The Land!!!! Lib Dems, where are you all?
    A lot of Lib Dems were knocking up in West Hampstead yesterday!


    Very basic take - Tories losing about 40% of their votes to a new Reform candidate, Labour losing more than half their vote, going 2/3rd LibDem, 1/3rd Green.
    Mark Pack, on his site, is understandably very chuffed about it. Less so with the Broxtowe result, of course; no LibDem candidate. If there had been, of course, maybe Tory votes would have been siphoned off and Reform could have won.
    I think your summary is probably right although someone like MattW would have local insight.

    I wonder if that’s why the Lib Dem’s didn’t stand.
    Not at all sure that's right.

    In areas where the Lib Dems are strong, they have a fairly clear anti-Reform brand. But where the Lib Dems are weak, like Broxtowe, they are actually fishing from the same pond as Reform to a fair degree - "none of the above" protest votes.

    It isn't at all clear to me that, had the Lib Dems stood, they'd have drawn the quite small number of votes they'd have got more from the Tories than Reform. I rather suspect that it'd be the other way around.

    Also, there is no great incentive for the Lib Dems to help the Tories scrape in. I strongly suspect they simply couldn't find a candidate in an area where they are pretty weak - and that happens relatively often (I'd guess the Lib Dems run someone in around three-quarters of local council by-elections).
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,432
    edited August 29
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Has anyone got Sam Allardyce's number?

    Honestly, what "proven Premier League manager" is going to Man Utd right now other than one who has slipped off the guest list? It's a graveyard for them. A foreign manager in a smaller national league looking for a ticket into the EPL is credible, but I don't see how they secure the services of a good existing EPL manager.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826
    Meanwhile what’s going on with India.

    Seriously pissed of with Trump and refusing overtures.

    The US has, for years, courted India to try to keep it from the spheres of influence of China/Russia and India has played both sides.

    Trumps moronic diplomacy on tariffs has sent them into the arms of the Chinese. They’re not willing to be pushed around.

    https://x.com/scmp_opinion/status/1961398434856145322?s=61
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,747

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    ClippP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    On other local news:

    The UK government did not do its own analysis of the cost of the biggest reorganisation of councils in England for decades, the BBC has learned.

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said "a significant amount of money" could be saved by merging councils in 21 areas into single authorities.

    Rayner's department, the ministry of local government, based its cost estimates on a 2020 report commissioned by the County Council Network (CCN) that said £2.9bn could be saved over five years.

    But the CCN has since revised its analysis and now says the reorganisation could make no savings and actually cost money in some scenarios.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9wxnlnrxdo

    I wonder how much time Rayner spends doing her job compared to her own housing dealings:

    Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, has been accused of avoiding £40,000 in stamp duty on her new flat by the sea after she told authorities it was her primary residence.

    Rayner, who is also the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, was said to have removed her name from the official deed to her house in Greater Manchester weeks before buying an £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex.

    According to The Telegraph, Rayner would have had to pay £70,000 in stamp duty on a second property, so the change saved her £40,000. She is thought to have paid only £30,000.

    She also told Tameside council in Greater Manchester that the house in her constituency was still her main home, before telling Brighton and Hove council that her new flat was her second home, which would change her status for council tax.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/angela-rayner-avoided-40000-stamp-duty-on-new-seaside-flat-76m7g6zkb

    As we know Rayner has a long history of dubious housing transactions.

    I’m awaiting for the ‘more targetting of an aspirational working class woman’ spin on this from her fans.
    It's the different taxation of different residences for stamp duty and council tax that is the problem. If both were replaced by a property tax of perhaps 1% of value each year then the problem goes away.
    Dr. Foxy, what do you think the cost would be of assessing the value of every single house every year?

    It may well be prohibitive, in both political and financial terms.
    You wouldn't do a valuation every year, for crying out loud.
    Up until 1990 there was an annual property tax on value. It was considered to be a cost-effective tax, it was dispensed with for ideological not economic reasons.
    Ok, so, how often?

    Individual assessments will still take a lot of time and cost initially. And the increase in cost to taxpayers will be politically difficult. It's the same reason council bands haven't been reformed, even though they should've been years ago.
    Just use the last sale price plus changes to the HPI. That has the added bonus of incentivising people to improve their homes, as well as not seek out places with a hot housing market.

    I've just checked it on my flat and it's pretty accurate at an LA level based on my latest mortgage valuation. I guess you could get more granular data too.
    Good morning

    House price data is much more available today then when the bands were originally introduced, so it should not be impossible to revalue all homes though a difficulty may arise in those homes which have had extensive changes

    We need a lot more bands, as the present system is not only unfair but ludicrous, with the wealthy getting away with not paying anything like enough
    But I don't think we should tax home improvements at all. The only additional bit I want to tax is general price inflation from the point at which you bought the property. I'd even apply a negative tax rate for solar, batteries, EV chargers and heating pumps.

    Cost 10 years ago: £200k
    Improvements: £50k
    Green improvements: £20k
    HPI increase over 10 year: £60k

    Value of home under my tax = 200 + 60 - 20 = 240k.
    The problem is if you have a tax based on property value then creating exceptions makes the process more complex

    Back to The Land!!!! Lib Dems, where are you all?
    A lot of Lib Dems were knocking up in West Hampstead yesterday!


    Very basic take - Tories losing about 40% of their votes to a new Reform candidate, Labour losing more than half their vote, going 2/3rd LibDem, 1/3rd Green.
    Mark Pack, on his site, is understandably very chuffed about it. Less so with the Broxtowe result, of course; no LibDem candidate. If there had been, of course, maybe Tory votes would have been siphoned off and Reform could have won.
    I think your summary is probably right although someone like MattW would have local insight.

    I wonder if that’s why the Lib Dem’s didn’t stand.
    Not at all sure that's right.

    In areas where the Lib Dems are strong, they have a fairly clear anti-Reform brand. But where the Lib Dems are weak, like Broxtowe, they are actually fishing from the same pond as Reform to a fair degree - "none of the above" protest votes.

    It isn't at all clear to me that, had the Lib Dems stood, they'd have drawn the quite small number of votes they'd have got more from the Tories than Reform. I rather suspect that it'd be the other way around.

    Also, there is no great incentive for the Lib Dems to help the Tories scrape in. I strongly suspect they simply couldn't find a candidate in an area where they are pretty weak - and that happens relatively often (I'd guess the Lib Dems run someone in around three-quarters of local council by-elections).
    I believe the LDs haven’t put somebody up in four of the last five elections there, so I doubt the absence of a candidate has much to do with the emergence of Reform
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,104
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Arne Slot had a far less successful record at Feyenoord than Ten Haag did at Ajax, also was less experienced. It is not the managers, nor the players, who mostly tend to have success elsewhere, at least beforehand, but get broken by the club, expectations and culture.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,468
    Scott_xP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
    We can probably add North Korea, and perhaps Russia to that list
    A lot of people who laud the Confederacy and the Wehrmacht will go on at length about their outstanding generalship and the fighting quality of their soldiers, whilst complaining that their enemies only won because of superior resources and logistics.

    Which completely misses the point. People might have to fight wars of necessity against enemies with superior resources, and logistics, but only a fool launches such a war out of choice. Such wars are usually launched by people who completely underrate their opponents' fighting capabilities. If your strategy is bad, all else is just "the noise before defeat."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,900
    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    In this case it's both. Amorim is wedded to 3-4-3 and it just doesn't work.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,900

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Has anyone got Sam Allardyce's number?

    Honestly, what "proven Premier League manager" is going to Man Utd right now other than one who has slipped off the guest list? It's a graveyard for them. A foreign manager in a smaller national league looking for a ticket into the EPL is credible, but I don't see how they secure the services of a good existing EPL manager.
    Which is why I think OGS or Mourinho would be a good idea. They've both been there before and know how to make it work.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,104

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Has anyone got Sam Allardyce's number?

    Honestly, what "proven Premier League manager" is going to Man Utd right now other than one who has slipped off the guest list? It's a graveyard for them. A foreign manager in a smaller national league looking for a ticket into the EPL is credible, but I don't see how they secure the services of a good existing EPL manager.
    The likes of Cunha and Mbuemo chose Man Utd not only over their existing clubs but also Newcastle and other clubs in European competition.

    If Man Utd really want one of Silva, Iraola, Glasner or Nuno they will get them. Probably cant get any of the Prem Champions League clubs managers but the rest, most will go.
  • Nigelb said:

    Russia will run out of refineries far quicker than Ukraine will run out of tower blocks.

    That Russia is willing to accept dozens of military casualties to inflict a few civilians casualties is a very good ratio for the world.

    I don't know why there's any debate about this, it's been demonstrated many times before. If you're bombing random civilians and the other side is bombing your fuel refineries, you lose the war. Cities have an incredible capacity to soak up damage and still function.

    Many German cities took a very serious pounding in WWII, far greater than Kyiv is taking from Russia, and the output of their industries did not appreciably decline, nor did civilian morale collapse. The only raids that actually had a significant effect were the fire-storm raids on cities like Dresden and Cologne, but Russia does not possess the capability to mount anything on that scale without using nuclear weapons.

    On the other hand, payback from hitting fuel infrastructure is immediate and out of all proportion to the effort involved. Russia is already seeing fuel supply problems, another few months of this and every sector of their economy will struggle to function.

    It's a genius move by Ukraine. They can bomb Russian refineries all day, but Ukraine gets much of its fuel from countries Russian can't hit without provoking a direct response from NATO.
    OTOH, Russia can, and almost certainly will start attacking power stations again, as winter approaches.
    Without question, but power stations are difficult targets to seriously damage. Refineries go boom when you hit them, power stations generally don't. I takes a lot of drones to knock a gas or coal station off the grid for a strategically consequential amount of time. And Ukraine can import replacement power generation and supply equipment, but Russia is known to have serious issues getting new hardware for their refineries because a lot of it was originally sourced from Europe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,265
    edited August 29
    Today's court ruling will be a win-win situation for Farage.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,755
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
    We can probably add North Korea, and perhaps Russia to that list
    A lot of people who laud the Confederacy and the Wehrmacht will go on at length about their outstanding generalship and the fighting quality of their soldiers, whilst complaining that their enemies only won because of superior resources and logistics.

    Which completely misses the point. People might have to fight wars of necessity against enemies with superior resources, and logistics, but only a fool launches such a war out of choice. Such wars are usually launched by people who completely underrate their opponents' fighting capabilities. If your strategy is bad, all else is just "the noise before defeat."
    In the case of Nazi Germany, their economy needed the resources (mineral, food and people) that the expansion would give them.

    Putin has no such excuse, given Russia's riches.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,969
    Foss said:

    Any chance of the mods putting a ban on any further discussion of Lucy Connolly?

    Apart from anything else, it's just so fucking boringly repetitive.
    Though I guess I've just contributed........

    Maybe all Lucys could be banned. Lucy Connolly. Lucy Letby. The 2014 Luc Besson film "Lucy".
    TBF, "Lucy" was a fairly ropy movie...
    I have a strange affection for it. This is probably because a friend has a role in it, so I ended up watching it multiple times.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,107

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Has anyone got Sam Allardyce's number?

    Honestly, what "proven Premier League manager" is going to Man Utd right now other than one who has slipped off the guest list? It's a graveyard for them. A foreign manager in a smaller national league looking for a ticket into the EPL is credible, but I don't see how they secure the services of a good existing EPL manager.
    The likes of Cunha and Mbuemo chose Man Utd not only over their existing clubs but also Newcastle and other clubs in European competition.

    If Man Utd really want one of Silva, Iraola, Glasner or Nuno they will get them. Probably cant get any of the Prem Champions League clubs managers but the rest, most will go.
    Iraola will wait for Man City rather than ruin his upward trajectory taking over the bin fire at Old Trafford. Silva maybe would, Nuno would as he’s a proper journeyman but good manager. I think Glasner would give it a swerve too. A few of the good managers will be keeping an eye on the Arsenal job as if Arteta doesn’t win either of the big two this season it could be the next big good job free.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,162
    Taz said:

    Meanwhile what’s going on with India.

    Seriously pissed of with Trump and refusing overtures.

    The US has, for years, courted India to try to keep it from the spheres of influence of China/Russia and India has played both sides.

    Trumps moronic diplomacy on tariffs has sent them into the arms of the Chinese. They’re not willing to be pushed around.

    https://x.com/scmp_opinion/status/1961398434856145322?s=61

    I think you've answered your own question...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,900
    boulay said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    In other news - United will get relegated this season if Amorim is left in charge.

    We're spending £lots on crazy players to try and fit an unplayable system. Need to hire a manager who can make these players play a system they can play.

    Two previous managers have just been sacked and thus are back on the market - Ole Gunnar Solsjaer and Jose Mourinho. Either would be better than this...

    Good Managers with proven track records go to United.

    They fail.

    United fans - The Manager is the problem
    Their appointments have been appalling. Moyes probably has a ceiling, but they treated him very badly given the rebuild required at the time. Van Gaal and Mourinho were outdated. Solskjaer did an okay job but was shafted by Ronaldo coming back. The last two have not had experience outside of leagues where a few big clubs dominate.

    Moyes was probably not the right appointment, but going from a proven Premier League manager is the way to go, I think.
    Has anyone got Sam Allardyce's number?

    Honestly, what "proven Premier League manager" is going to Man Utd right now other than one who has slipped off the guest list? It's a graveyard for them. A foreign manager in a smaller national league looking for a ticket into the EPL is credible, but I don't see how they secure the services of a good existing EPL manager.
    The likes of Cunha and Mbuemo chose Man Utd not only over their existing clubs but also Newcastle and other clubs in European competition.

    If Man Utd really want one of Silva, Iraola, Glasner or Nuno they will get them. Probably cant get any of the Prem Champions League clubs managers but the rest, most will go.
    Iraola will wait for Man City rather than ruin his upward trajectory taking over the bin fire at Old Trafford. Silva maybe would, Nuno would as he’s a proper journeyman but good manager. I think Glasner would give it a swerve too. A few of the good managers will be keeping an eye on the Arsenal job as if Arteta doesn’t win either of the big two this season it could be the next big good job free.
    Michael Carrick, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - all available, all ex-United legends who know how we play, all previous United managers.

    I would take any of them over Amorim right now. =
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,969
    Have we done the West Hampstead by-election result, down the road from me?

    WEST HAMPSTEAD BY-ELECTION RESULT
    JANET GRAUBERG (Lib Dems) 1,174 ELECTED
    FRANCESCA REYNOLDS (Labour) 458
    IAN COHEN (Local Conservatives) 222
    THOMAS STERLING (Reform) 155
    MATTHEW HULL (Green Party) 152

    The seat elected 3 Labour at the last election (although the standing down councillor had defected to the Tories). But it's been LibDem in the past.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,265

    Have we done the West Hampstead by-election result, down the road from me?

    WEST HAMPSTEAD BY-ELECTION RESULT
    JANET GRAUBERG (Lib Dems) 1,174 ELECTED
    FRANCESCA REYNOLDS (Labour) 458
    IAN COHEN (Local Conservatives) 222
    THOMAS STERLING (Reform) 155
    MATTHEW HULL (Green Party) 152

    The seat elected 3 Labour at the last election (although the standing down councillor had defected to the Tories). But it's been LibDem in the past.

    Everyone in the VoteUK discussion forum prediction competition predicted a LD win here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,552
    edited August 29

    Have we done the West Hampstead by-election result, down the road from me?

    WEST HAMPSTEAD BY-ELECTION RESULT
    JANET GRAUBERG (Lib Dems) 1,174 ELECTED
    FRANCESCA REYNOLDS (Labour) 458
    IAN COHEN (Local Conservatives) 222
    THOMAS STERLING (Reform) 155
    MATTHEW HULL (Green Party) 152

    The seat elected 3 Labour at the last election (although the standing down councillor had defected to the Tories). But it's been LibDem in the past.

    This is a Local Conservative for 222 local Conservatives.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,670

    Nigelb said:

    Russia will run out of refineries far quicker than Ukraine will run out of tower blocks.

    That Russia is willing to accept dozens of military casualties to inflict a few civilians casualties is a very good ratio for the world.

    I don't know why there's any debate about this, it's been demonstrated many times before. If you're bombing random civilians and the other side is bombing your fuel refineries, you lose the war. Cities have an incredible capacity to soak up damage and still function.

    Many German cities took a very serious pounding in WWII, far greater than Kyiv is taking from Russia, and the output of their industries did not appreciably decline, nor did civilian morale collapse. The only raids that actually had a significant effect were the fire-storm raids on cities like Dresden and Cologne, but Russia does not possess the capability to mount anything on that scale without using nuclear weapons.

    On the other hand, payback from hitting fuel infrastructure is immediate and out of all proportion to the effort involved. Russia is already seeing fuel supply problems, another few months of this and every sector of their economy will struggle to function.

    It's a genius move by Ukraine. They can bomb Russian refineries all day, but Ukraine gets much of its fuel from countries Russian can't hit without provoking a direct response from NATO.
    OTOH, Russia can, and almost certainly will start attacking power stations again, as winter approaches.
    Without question, but power stations are difficult targets to seriously damage. Refineries go boom when you hit them, power stations generally don't. I takes a lot of drones to knock a gas or coal station off the grid for a strategically consequential amount of time. And Ukraine can import replacement power generation and supply equipment, but Russia is known to have serious issues getting new hardware for their refineries because a lot of it was originally sourced from Europe.
    Depends on the power station. The old style ones often have a set of generators and turbines on long shafts. Spinning at high velocity. Disturb that, and the whole thing RUDs rather rapidly.

    During the first Gulf War, the Americans targeted the Iraqi switching and transformer yards at first. But the Iraqis proved very good at patching them up. After a couple of days, the Americas went after the turbines and generators. While take years to replace.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826
    Andy_JS said:

    Today's court ruling will be a win-win situation for Farage.

    Agreed.

    Popcorn ready.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,468

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
    We can probably add North Korea, and perhaps Russia to that list
    A lot of people who laud the Confederacy and the Wehrmacht will go on at length about their outstanding generalship and the fighting quality of their soldiers, whilst complaining that their enemies only won because of superior resources and logistics.

    Which completely misses the point. People might have to fight wars of necessity against enemies with superior resources, and logistics, but only a fool launches such a war out of choice. Such wars are usually launched by people who completely underrate their opponents' fighting capabilities. If your strategy is bad, all else is just "the noise before defeat."
    In the case of Nazi Germany, their economy needed the resources (mineral, food and people) that the expansion would give them.

    Putin has no such excuse, given Russia's riches.
    It needed the resources, because the Nazis deliberately turned away from expanding exports of manufactures to pay for imports of food, in favour of autarky. By borrowing heavily to fund military expansion, to the point that Germany was on the point of bankruptcy in 1939, they had become dependent on plunder and conquest to repay their debts.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,670
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
    We can probably add North Korea, and perhaps Russia to that list
    A lot of people who laud the Confederacy and the Wehrmacht will go on at length about their outstanding generalship and the fighting quality of their soldiers, whilst complaining that their enemies only won because of superior resources and logistics.

    Which completely misses the point. People might have to fight wars of necessity against enemies with superior resources, and logistics, but only a fool launches such a war out of choice. Such wars are usually launched by people who completely underrate their opponents' fighting capabilities. If your strategy is bad, all else is just "the noise before defeat."
    Bit the complaint from the Napoleon fans that Wellington wasn't much of a general because he fought many battles on the reverse slope of a ridge.

    If you can get your enemy to charge uphill, while your own soldiers are protected from attack....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,969

    Nigelb said:

    Have we talked about this possibility ?

    Is a Jeremy Corbyn run for London Mayor locked in? You’d have to assume the Mamdani success would make it too tempting for him not to go for, and if it’s a four-way split he must be the favourite. Scary: our city could get a *lot* more decrepit and dangerous than it is right now!
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1961362330148655145

    Presumably the next London mayoral election will again be under the Supplementary Vote system, following passage of the Devolution Bill.

    That changes the calculus for both Corbyn and Reform and fairly clearly makes it harder for them (I think extremely hard for Reform and fairly hard for Corbyn) as they won't be able to get by on a split vote and will need a good number of second preferences, which is tougher on the extremes.

    There's also the initial step for Corbyn of London borough elections next May - clearly, his appetite for it would diminish rather a lot if his new party doesn't make a lot of progress then.

    Also worth noting that I believe we discussed here the other day that the Devolution Bill prevents someone being MP and Mayor of London. Doesn't stop Corbyn running, but he'd need to stand down as an MP if he won, which is a little odd as leader of his new party.

    For all these reasons, "locked in" seems a bit excessive - he'll no doubt weigh it up, but I'm not sure he'll do it when push comes to shove.
    I don't think Corbyn having to stand down as an MP if elected Mayor is a problem. Mayor is clearly a more significant position. I can't see Your Party going into a general election expecting to appoint the PM after the vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,468
    Andy_JS said:

    Have we done the West Hampstead by-election result, down the road from me?

    WEST HAMPSTEAD BY-ELECTION RESULT
    JANET GRAUBERG (Lib Dems) 1,174 ELECTED
    FRANCESCA REYNOLDS (Labour) 458
    IAN COHEN (Local Conservatives) 222
    THOMAS STERLING (Reform) 155
    MATTHEW HULL (Green Party) 152

    The seat elected 3 Labour at the last election (although the standing down councillor had defected to the Tories). But it's been LibDem in the past.

    Everyone in the VoteUK discussion forum prediction competition predicted a LD win here.
    It was an easy prediction to make. If there is a by-election in Hampstead constituency, the Lib Dems should take it easily.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,969
    Andy_JS said:

    Have we done the West Hampstead by-election result, down the road from me?

    WEST HAMPSTEAD BY-ELECTION RESULT
    JANET GRAUBERG (Lib Dems) 1,174 ELECTED
    FRANCESCA REYNOLDS (Labour) 458
    IAN COHEN (Local Conservatives) 222
    THOMAS STERLING (Reform) 155
    MATTHEW HULL (Green Party) 152

    The seat elected 3 Labour at the last election (although the standing down councillor had defected to the Tories). But it's been LibDem in the past.

    Everyone in the VoteUK discussion forum prediction competition predicted a LD win here.
    It did seem likely! The result (>50%) is still good. I thought it would be closer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,468

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @gregjaffe.bsky.social‬

    The Pentagon is restoring a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee, which includes a slave guiding the Confederate general’s horse in the background, to the West Point library three years after a congressionally mandated commission ordered it removed, officials said.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lxj3ia2hls2x

    Many of Trump's supporters see both the Confederates, and the Nazis, as gallant losers, who actually deserved to win.
    We can probably add North Korea, and perhaps Russia to that list
    A lot of people who laud the Confederacy and the Wehrmacht will go on at length about their outstanding generalship and the fighting quality of their soldiers, whilst complaining that their enemies only won because of superior resources and logistics.

    Which completely misses the point. People might have to fight wars of necessity against enemies with superior resources, and logistics, but only a fool launches such a war out of choice. Such wars are usually launched by people who completely underrate their opponents' fighting capabilities. If your strategy is bad, all else is just "the noise before defeat."
    Bit the complaint from the Napoleon fans that Wellington wasn't much of a general because he fought many battles on the reverse slope of a ridge.

    If you can get your enemy to charge uphill, while your own soldiers are protected from attack....
    Like the exchange between Marius and one of his Italian opponents, when Marius was outnumbered, but had selected an excellent position.

    "If you're a great general, why don't you fight me."

    "If you're a great general, why don't you force me to?"
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,297
    Andy_JS said:

    Today's court ruling will be a win-win situation for Farage.

    A government loss could actually be Nigel's nightmare. It would mean every hotel in the country closing its doors to asylum seekers forcing them to roam the streets unchecked. Sir Keir can then turn round to Nigel and say, 'I never wanted this Nigel but you forced it upon us. Look at the damage and chaos you've wrought.'
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,826

    Andy_JS said:

    Today's court ruling will be a win-win situation for Farage.

    A government loss could actually be Nigel's nightmare. It would mean every hotel in the country closing its doors to asylum seekers forcing them to roam the streets unchecked. Sir Keir can then turn round to Nigel and say, 'I never wanted this Nigel but you forced it upon us. Look at the damage and chaos you've wrought.'
    To which he’d say, you’re in charge, you sort it. Deport deport deport.

    I really don’t see it harming Farage.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,549
    dixiedean said:

    Have we done the West Hampstead by-election result, down the road from me?

    WEST HAMPSTEAD BY-ELECTION RESULT
    JANET GRAUBERG (Lib Dems) 1,174 ELECTED
    FRANCESCA REYNOLDS (Labour) 458
    IAN COHEN (Local Conservatives) 222
    THOMAS STERLING (Reform) 155
    MATTHEW HULL (Green Party) 152

    The seat elected 3 Labour at the last election (although the standing down councillor had defected to the Tories). But it's been LibDem in the past.

    This is a Local Conservative for 222 local Conservatives.
    Did not the Tories everywhere mainly call themselves "Local Conservatives" at the 2024 Election as the national party was such an embarrassment?
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