They'd be pretty stupid to stand against Reform UK because all it'll do is split the populist/right vote. The only exception to that is Lowe's seat in Great Yarmouth.
Habib has just done an interview with Andrew Gold. He didn't say much on Robinson, sticking to his view that the Attorney General should not have intervened in a civil case. Much more about Farage who he dismissed as self interested and controlling Reform as his own personal fiefdom. As for tactical voting remember we are still four years away from the election.
In other news the Russian economy looks more and more strained thanks to the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Hopefully the Flamingo cruise missiles will help to starve the bear further. My biggest concern is that Trump will try and sabotage it to help Putin.
FPT: When did the Attorney General intervene in a Civil Case?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
Robinson, Yaxley-Lennon or whatever he call himself seems to like going to prison. Is he courting martyrdom or what?
It’s part of his business plan.
Scene : Generic business meeting room
Suit 1 : so, Mr Yaxley-Lennon, please explain your pitch
YX : {flips flip chart} step 1 is being sent to prison for something I can pretend is unfair. The trial gives lots of opportunities to gain monetised followers.
Suits nod
YX : step 2 is building outrage on social media, leading to more monetised followers.
Suits nod
YX : step 3 is triumphal release from prison. Leading to even more monetised followers.
Suits nod
YX: step 4 is step 1
Suit 1 : {smiles} Excellent pitch. I’ll have to take it to the board but I think I can guarantee our backing at this stage.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Boris was a social democrat compared to Farage who got a deal with the EU and was relaxed about immigration overall.
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
Boris' policy over immigration is why we're in trouble over it now.
It is the supreme irony that Boris might end up the most liberal and big spending elected PM we have had this century. Only Brown was more of a big government spender than Boris and he never won a general election and apart from EU immigration Boris was more open to immigrants even than Blair.
Though they hated him post Brexit and in 2019 I suspect most Labour and LD voters would now take Boris over Farage as PM in a heartbeat
A choice between Johnson and Farage is a choice between eating shit and drinking piss. I doubt LD voters would choose either.
Most current LD held seats voted for the Johnson Tories in 2019, such seats even now are predicted to stay LD and not vote Reform.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
So you would vote to deport migrants to the Taliban, for a DOGE system in local government to slash spending, for a party leader who said gay marriage should not have happened and who wants to scrap net zero completely and start fracking just to stop the Tories.
Thanks for confirming
You don't half jump to some weird conclusions. The likelihood of @IanB2 voting Reform is surely minuscule; even lower than yours.
He literally said he would probably vote Reform over Tory in a Tory v Reform seat like mine
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
It's just gone on my list to visit. It's 1962, with stained glass by a chap who worked on Coventry Cathedral, and the roof is a HYPERBOLID PARABOLOID *. We don't have many outstanding modern church buildings around here - but there are some from that period.
Confused me at first: a hyperbola and a parabola are quite different, but the obvious answer turns out to be correct - it's sort of one from side to side and the other from front to back. Like, apparently, a Pringle of all things.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
Thanks to your Leaver friends that'll be another charge on British business.
The government can easily announce its own fee on these packages
Already does, sort of; see my post.
The issue is whether the £2 EU fee is in addition to EU member states' VAT or whether it replaces it. In the latter hcase, it'll be a hell of a bargain compared to UK VAT and a ransom fee (well it feels like it) to RM of at least a tenner flat fee.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Thanks - very interesting. I suppose, though, that the number of voters likely to be involved in a left-leaning realignment appears to be much smaller than the realignment on the right. But with FPTP in the current political climate, the consequences might be considerable.
It's complex both ends, and I'd hate to have to call it for money.
* Pride in London drew 1 million + spectators in July. * The last round of Asylum Hotel protests had more opponents than supporters afaics. * Lee Anderson's "bugger off, media" post this morning had 3k likes, many tribal but some fairly soft judging by people I know. * Unsavoury incidents (threatened grandad, legal immigrant threatened with knife in Glasgow) seem to be getting some cut-through. * England Flags Everywhere feels more rolling than spontaneous - travelling groups trying to look more general than they are? * A bit of public resistance being seen (eg my "Not on Our Church You Don't" link) ? * Will RefUK be moving to less inflammatory narratives? (Is Farage still comfortable with Rape Gangs and Asylum Seekers Raping Our Girls? ) * What will the Jenrick / Philp fringe of the Cons do?
Watch the Reform supporter coalition, perhaps, and see how it holds together.
I think Lee Anderson needs to launch the Full English Party .
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
So you would vote to deport migrants to the Taliban, for a DOGE system in local government to slash spending, for a party leader who said gay marriage should not have happened and who wants to scrap net zero completely and start fracking just to stop the Tories.
Thanks for confirming
You don't half jump to some weird conclusions. The likelihood of @IanB2 voting Reform is surely minuscule; even lower than yours.
He literally said he would probably vote Reform over Tory in a Tory v Reform seat like mine
He literally said "If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch ..."
There are not only Tory and Reform candidates, even in your seat there will be a token Lib Dem or Labour candidate he can vote for.
As a general rule of thumb you can drop anything before the "but" but you can't drop "if" statements.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Thanks - very interesting. I suppose, though, that the number of voters likely to be involved in a left-leaning realignment appears to be much smaller than the realignment on the right. But with FPTP in the current political climate, the consequences might be considerable.
It's complex both ends, and I'd hate to have to call it for money.
* Pride in London drew 1 million + spectators in July. * The last round of Asylum Hotel protests had more opponents than supporters afaics. * Lee Anderson's "bugger off, media" post this morning had 3k likes, many tribal but some fairly soft judging by people I know. * Unsavoury incidents (threatened grandad, legal immigrant threatened with knife in Glasgow) seem to be getting some cut-through. * England Flags Everywhere feels more rolling than spontaneous - travelling groups trying to look more general than they are? * A bit of public resistance being seen (eg my "Not on Our Church You Don't" link) ? * Will RefUK be moving to less inflammatory narratives? (Is Farage still comfortable with Rape Gangs and Asylum Seekers Raping Our Girls? ) * What will the Jenrick / Philp fringe of the Cons do?
Watch the Reform supporter coalition, perhaps, and see how it holds together.
I think Lee Anderson needs to launch the Full English Party .
Its bad enough racists trying to hijack the flag, please don't let them hijack the Full English.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Smoking, fondness for cash, also aversion to air conditioning in hotels
Indoor smoking in bars and restaurants was something I noticed in Granada. It is illegal, and the ban is ignored.
I found the same in Croatia - it was quite funny when we asked if smoking outside was possible in a few places. Several said 'and inside too if you prefer!'...
On a related note, does make me wonder if the process state was directly to blame for Brexit. Over-zealous enforcement of EU rules by an over-zealous bureaucracy.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Thanks - very interesting. I suppose, though, that the number of voters likely to be involved in a left-leaning realignment appears to be much smaller than the realignment on the right. But with FPTP in the current political climate, the consequences might be considerable.
It's complex both ends, and I'd hate to have to call it for money.
* Pride in London drew 1 million + spectators in July. * The last round of Asylum Hotel protests had more opponents than supporters afaics. * Lee Anderson's "bugger off, media" post this morning had 3k likes, many tribal but some fairly soft judging by people I know. * Unsavoury incidents (threatened grandad, legal immigrant threatened with knife in Glasgow) seem to be getting some cut-through. * England Flags Everywhere feels more rolling than spontaneous - travelling groups trying to look more general than they are? * A bit of public resistance being seen (eg my "Not on Our Church You Don't" link) ? * Will RefUK be moving to less inflammatory narratives? (Is Farage still comfortable with Rape Gangs and Asylum Seekers Raping Our Girls? ) * What will the Jenrick / Philp fringe of the Cons do?
Watch the Reform supporter coalition, perhaps, and see how it holds together.
I think Lee Anderson needs to launch the Full English Party .
Its bad enough racists trying to hijack the flag, please don't let them hijack the Full English.
On topic, there is an interesting phenomenon developing with Reform.
A lot of their policies apparently poll badly, yet the party is polling pretty well in VI regardless of this.
So why is this the case?
My current theory is that the Reform momentum is greater as a whole than the sum of its parts. There are enough voters who are fed up with mainstream policies that they are willing to accept things they may find distasteful or that they don’t really like because they feel the broad direction of travel is better under Reform than the alternatives. As a result, specific issue polling won’t tell us very much about the performance of Reform - it simply possesses enough of a “hold your nose and vote for them regardless” quality. We saw this in the US, too.
All that said it must present some opportunity for the mainstream parties in that they have to be making hay in exposing and exploiting the unpopular policies to create sufficient doubt in people’s minds. Whether they can do it successfully or not will depend very much on how much they are able to combat that feeling of voter anger against the mainstream. And the jury is still very much out on that. Hence why GE2029 is so unpredictable.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
Forgive me if my reading comprehension is not strong but where in that quote does it mention anything about an active proposal to pay the Taliban money, which is what Reform suggested as a policy, and the header’s poll was about? They proactively decided to put out a policy (rather than being “open” to suggestions) and are being criticised for said policy. Being a snowflake and crying about people being rude about them being “nasty” is not going to get far.
Forgive me for not liking your snidey tone, but any deal with Afghanistan is going to involve cosying up to the Taliban one way or another, that’s just reality. Of course people in opinion polls are going to say they don’t like being anything but horrible to bad people, but life’s not perfect
Neither is political campaigning.
Farage's side of politics has spent the last decade taking the piss out of his opponents for not being able to answer his style of messaging. Tying him to the Taliban is just sauce for the old gander, with a soupçon of truth in there somewhere.
If the choice is the Taliban a few quid better off and no boats, I think people would lap it up
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Smoking, fondness for cash, also aversion to air conditioning in hotels
Indoor smoking in bars and restaurants was something I noticed in Granada. It is illegal, and the ban is ignored.
I found the same in Croatia - it was quite funny when we asked if smoking outside was possible in a few places. Several said 'and inside too if you prefer!'...
On a related note, does make me wonder if the process state was directly to blame for Brexit. Over-zealous enforcement of EU rules by an over-zealous bureaucracy.
I’ve long said that what we needed was a French attitude to the EU rules. And other rule sets.
The U.K. attitude seemed to be “If enforcing this hurts the UK and upsets lots of people - awesome, it proves our commitment. Let’s enforce this to the utmost possible.”
On topic, there is an interesting phenomenon developing with Reform.
A lot of their policies apparently poll badly, yet the party is polling pretty well in VI regardless of this.
So why is this the case?
My current theory is that the Reform momentum is greater as a whole than the sum of its parts. There are enough voters who are fed up with mainstream policies that they are willing to accept things they may find distasteful or that they don’t really like because they feel the broad direction of travel is better under Reform than the alternatives. As a result, specific issue polling won’t tell us very much about the performance of Reform - it simply possesses enough of a “hold your nose and vote for them regardless” quality. We saw this in the US, too.
All that said it must present some opportunity for the mainstream parties in that they have to be making hay in exposing and exploiting the unpopular policies to create sufficient doubt in people’s minds. Whether they can do it successfully or not will depend very much on how much they are able to combat that feeling of voter anger against the mainstream. And the jury is still very much out on that. Hence why GE2029 is so unpredictable.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The question is who they will take votes off: the Greens or Blue Labour. I don't know the answer to that question. The one thing I am sure of is that Corbyn's lack of organisational skills and inability to carry other Red Labour MPs to his cause will put a ceiling on Your Party's appeal.
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Smoking, fondness for cash, also aversion to air conditioning in hotels
Indoor smoking in bars and restaurants was something I noticed in Granada. It is illegal, and the ban is ignored.
I found the same in Croatia - it was quite funny when we asked if smoking outside was possible in a few places. Several said 'and inside too if you prefer!'...
On a related note, does make me wonder if the process state was directly to blame for Brexit. Over-zealous enforcement of EU rules by an over-zealous bureaucracy.
I’ve long said that what we needed was a French attitude to the EU rules. And other rule sets.
The U.K. attitude seemed to be “If enforcing this hurts the UK and upsets lots of people - awesome, it proves our commitment. Let’s enforce this to the utmost possible.”
Everything had to be gold-plated, and enforced in the most pig-headed manner.
A four page EU Directive would become two hundred pages of regulations and guidance.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
I buy a lot of goods from China and the vast majority are items I just can't get from domestic suppliers, if the UK were to duplicate this move my costs would go up and nobody benefits.
"Katerina Buchy, director of Sheffield-based giftware wholesaler Ancient Wisdom, said low-value imports were hitting her company's business because it couldn't compete with the prices on sites like Shein and Temu. "
If your livelihood is selling the same things as Shein and Temu at higher prices you are bad at business and the government should not impose extra costs on well-run businesses to save you.
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
I buy a lot of goods from China and the vast majority are items I just can't get from domestic suppliers, if the UK were to duplicate this move my costs would go up and nobody benefits.
"Katerina Buchy, director of Sheffield-based giftware wholesaler Ancient Wisdom, said low-value imports were hitting her company's business because it couldn't compete with the prices on sites like Shein and Temu. "
If your livelihood is selling the same things as Shein and Temu at higher prices you are bad at business and the government should not impose extra costs on well-run businesses to save you.
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
It's just gone on my list to visit. It's 1962, with stained glass by a chap who worked on Coventry Cathedral, and the roof is a HYPERBOLID PARABOLOID *. We don't have many outstanding modern church buildings around here - but there are some from that period.
Confused me at first: a hyperbola and a parabola are quite different, but the obvious answer turns out to be correct - it's sort of one from side to side and the other from front to back. Like, apparently, a Pringle of all things.
The value of them is that require far less concrete. If travelling South, the Markham Moor services on the A1 have one with a Starbucks underneath.
There is still one at the former Commonwealth Institute in London, but the developers built flats round it, and the building was gutted but for the roof and walls: https://maps.app.goo.gl/irJDc4ciW4QsACgcA
Other variations are in the Lee Valley Velodrome for 2012, and the Smithfield Poultry Market, soon to be home to the Museum of London, which is spectacular:
The concrete shell roof spans 225 × 125 feet (69 × 38 m), with a double curvature sheet in the form of an elliptic paraboloid, mostly only 3 inches (7.6 cm) thick but up to 6 inches (15 cm) at the edges. It is claimed to be the largest concrete shell structure ever built, and the largest clear spanning dome roof in Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithfield_Poultry_Market
As somebody to the left of current Labour, I'm struggling to see the Corbyn/Sultana vehicle being a success. I just don't know where the leadership will come from. Corbyn is too old and has too much baggage. Sultana is intemperate and often quite foolish - for example, her insistence that Starmer and Lammy should be tried at The Hague for war crimes over Gaza is plain daft. But I really can't think of any credible leader, let alone a (shadow) leadership team.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
I'm a former MP for 13 years (not all that left-wing, though I was happy with Corbyn as leader), and have been a member of Labour since I was 21; I'm currently chair of my constituency CLP. I'm fed up with the negative slant of the current Labour leadership, but don't feel the Greens or the LibDems offer a coherent alternative, let alone a left-wing one, though I'd be open to the possibility of alliance. I'm therefore a possible switcher if the new party offers a coherent, largely positive alternative. If they end up like the SWP, certainly not, but we'll see.
There are lots of Labour people like me - at least 25% of the membership, I'd say - and we are not exclusively basing our choices on probability to win outright We feel the voters are in sufficient flux to give a serious leftish party a reasonable chance. We might be wrong, but it's a mistake to assume we don't exist.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
Forgive me if my reading comprehension is not strong but where in that quote does it mention anything about an active proposal to pay the Taliban money, which is what Reform suggested as a policy, and the header’s poll was about? They proactively decided to put out a policy (rather than being “open” to suggestions) and are being criticised for said policy. Being a snowflake and crying about people being rude about them being “nasty” is not going to get far.
Forgive me for not liking your snidey tone, but any deal with Afghanistan is going to involve cosying up to the Taliban one way or another, that’s just reality. Of course people in opinion polls are going to say they don’t like being anything but horrible to bad people, but life’s not perfect
I understand tone might not land the same way for everyone, but focusing on that risks sidestepping the point. The real issue here is whether engaging with the Taliban is a necessary part of any deal with Afghanistan. On that, I think you’re right that realities on the ground can make uncomfortable compromises inevitable. I'm scrutinising how those compromises are framed as policy. And there appears to be only once policy here.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
Forgive me if my reading comprehension is not strong but where in that quote does it mention anything about an active proposal to pay the Taliban money, which is what Reform suggested as a policy, and the header’s poll was about? They proactively decided to put out a policy (rather than being “open” to suggestions) and are being criticised for said policy. Being a snowflake and crying about people being rude about them being “nasty” is not going to get far.
Forgive me for not liking your snidey tone, but any deal with Afghanistan is going to involve cosying up to the Taliban one way or another, that’s just reality. Of course people in opinion polls are going to say they don’t like being anything but horrible to bad people, but life’s not perfect
Neither is political campaigning.
Farage's side of politics has spent the last decade taking the piss out of his opponents for not being able to answer his style of messaging. Tying him to the Taliban is just sauce for the old gander, with a soupçon of truth in there somewhere.
If the choice is the Taliban a few quid better off and no boats, I think people would lap it up
Most boats come from Africa, very few migrants from Afghanistan came on boats, they were flown out before Kabul fell.
Hence Yougov found most voters oppose Farage's return migrants to the Taliban policy
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
Thanks to your Leaver friends that'll be another charge on British business.
The government can easily announce its own fee on these packages
Already does, sort of; see my post.
The issue is whether the £2 EU fee is in addition to EU member states' VAT or whether it replaces it. In the latter hcase, it'll be a hell of a bargain compared to UK VAT and a ransom fee (well it feels like it) to RM of at least a tenner flat fee.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
Forgive me if my reading comprehension is not strong but where in that quote does it mention anything about an active proposal to pay the Taliban money, which is what Reform suggested as a policy, and the header’s poll was about? They proactively decided to put out a policy (rather than being “open” to suggestions) and are being criticised for said policy. Being a snowflake and crying about people being rude about them being “nasty” is not going to get far.
Forgive me for not liking your snidey tone, but any deal with Afghanistan is going to involve cosying up to the Taliban one way or another, that’s just reality. Of course people in opinion polls are going to say they don’t like being anything but horrible to bad people, but life’s not perfect
Neither is political campaigning.
Farage's side of politics has spent the last decade taking the piss out of his opponents for not being able to answer his style of messaging. Tying him to the Taliban is just sauce for the old gander, with a soupçon of truth in there somewhere.
If the choice is the Taliban a few quid better off and no boats, I think people would lap it up
Most boats come from Africa, very few migrants from Afghanistan came on boats, they were flown out before Kabul fell.
Hence Yougov found most voters oppose Farage's return migrants to the Taliban policy
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Sometimes principles have to go before bad headlines in the gutter press.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Voters are an idiosyncratic lot. I remember an ex's grandfather who was deciding between the BNP and the Greens. Another ex converted from Communist to LibDem. Not all voters see parties the same way.
Quite.
One of the fatal miscalculations that LD activists made in 2019 (your next PM Jo Swinson, anyone?) was assuming that their voters - particularly in the SW, were strong Remainers.
Scores of previously LD VIs that I canvassed came out strongly for May in 2017 and Boris in 2019......
And that was their fatal miscalculation, given current polling on Brexit and the Tories.
As somebody to the left of current Labour, I'm struggling to see the Corbyn/Sultana vehicle being a success. I just don't know where the leadership will come from. Corbyn is too old and has too much baggage. Sultana is intemperate and often quite foolish - for example, her insistence that Starmer and Lammy should be tried at The Hague for war crimes over Gaza is plain daft. But I really can't think of any credible leader, let alone a (shadow) leadership team.
So you don't think Sultana will be raisin the bar in the currant party leader stakes?
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Might boost the Tory share too given it is a Tory council who brought the case to close the hotel.
Ironically Farage and Badenoch probably want the government to win this appeal, as politically it would be damaging to Labour hitting their white working class vote even more. Whereas Starmer should politically want to lose it as then he will have to close hotels for migrants and can tell left liberal migrant lovers, 'wasn't me guv but the judges who made us do it'
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Tony Blair once said after being criticised "It's worse than you think - I really do believe in it".
That sums up the attitude you're criticising. They're incapable of comprehending what you're saying as they genuinely believe in what they're saying.
As somebody to the left of current Labour, I'm struggling to see the Corbyn/Sultana vehicle being a success. I just don't know where the leadership will come from. Corbyn is too old and has too much baggage. Sultana is intemperate and often quite foolish - for example, her insistence that Starmer and Lammy should be tried at The Hague for war crimes over Gaza is plain daft. But I really can't think of any credible leader, let alone a (shadow) leadership team.
I agree up to a point, but new leaders do appear. I'll await the conference before deciding.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
The paradox is that any alliance between the Jezzbollah and the Greens will most likely be fatal for the Greens. Hard to see the Hunter wellies types who voted Green in Herefordshire or South Suffolk going for Urban Radicalism.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
Let's hope that there are no seats where the only choice is Tory or Reform. What a choice!
My own seat of Brentwood and Ongar had the Tories first and Reform second at the GE, overall there are likely to be 100 such seats at least given the higher Reform voteshare now and where the MP is still Tory
Yes and there will be a lot of voters there who wouldn't even think of voting Tory there, to keep Reform out. I certainly wouldn't.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
Let's hope that there are no seats where the only choice is Tory or Reform. What a choice!
My own seat of Brentwood and Ongar had the Tories first and Reform second at the GE, overall there are likely to be 100 such seats at least given the higher Reform voteshare now and where the MP is still Tory
Yes and there will be a lot of voters there who wouldn't even think of voting Tory there, to keep Reform out. I certainly wouldn't.
You may not, 33% of LDs and 22% of Labour voters and even 11% of Greens however told Yougov they would tactically vote Tory in a Tory v Reform marginal to keep out Farage
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
So you would vote to deport migrants to the Taliban, for a DOGE system in local government to slash spending, for a party leader who said gay marriage should not have happened and who wants to scrap net zero completely and start fracking just to stop the Tories.
Thanks for confirming
You don't half jump to some weird conclusions. The likelihood of @IanB2 voting Reform is surely minuscule; even lower than yours.
He literally said he would probably vote Reform over Tory in a Tory v Reform seat like mine
No, I didn't, I said that if those were the ONLY two choices, with no other parties standing.
Indeed, it's not hypothetical since my current seat has a Tory MP with Reform in decent second place, which on current polls would be a Reform gain. And by Tory standards the local MP isn't too bad. But I will be voting Green or LibDem; most probably LibDem next time despite having voted Green in the last three GEs.
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
Ex army barracks as Farage is pushing
"Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud'"
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1752571/nigel-farage-government-stop-the-boats-plan-raf-scampton-wetherfield Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud' Farage warned "not a single person will leave the over 450 hotels they're housed in already" in a row over the Government's large migrant expenses. The former UKIP leader fumed over how all of the bases combined weren’t enough to slash the taxpayers' bill being paid for asylum seeker hotels. He complained the bases were only big enough to house a few weeks' worth of incoming asylum seekers.
Earlier today, Immigration minister Robert Jenrick told the House of Commons that "thousands" would be accommodated at former RAF sites in Essex and Lincolnshire.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
I'm a former MP for 13 years (not all that left-wing, though I was happy with Corbyn as leader), and have been a member of Labour since I was 21; I'm currently chair of my constituency CLP. I'm fed up with the negative slant of the current Labour leadership, but don't feel the Greens or the LibDems offer a coherent alternative, let alone a left-wing one, though I'd be open to the possibility of alliance. I'm therefore a possible switcher if the new party offers a coherent, largely positive alternative. If they end up like the SWP, certainly not, but we'll see.
There are lots of Labour people like me - at least 25% of the membership, I'd say - and we are not exclusively basing our choices on probability to win outright We feel the voters are in sufficient flux to give a serious leftish party a reasonable chance. We might be wrong, but it's a mistake to assume we don't exist.
You were a communist when younger - not just supporter, but member - and you're still a communist apologist to this day, despite all we now know about how appalling communism always is, in reality. And you were "happy" with Corbyn as leader.
How is that "not all that left-wing"?? Unless your Overton window has fallen out of its frame.
As somebody to the left of current Labour, I'm struggling to see the Corbyn/Sultana vehicle being a success. I just don't know where the leadership will come from. Corbyn is too old and has too much baggage. Sultana is intemperate and often quite foolish - for example, her insistence that Starmer and Lammy should be tried at The Hague for war crimes over Gaza is plain daft. But I really can't think of any credible leader, let alone a (shadow) leadership team.
If they get some defections from the left of Labour there might be some possible candidates. Whatever happened to RLB for instance? I don’t rate her at all but she seemed to have some who sang her praises (inexplicably, to me, but there you go).
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
For the full restoration you'd have to put the alligator tank back.
Shame about the iron frame though, going to be multiple millions to sort out.
On a small point, it was a turtle pool, not alligator; to have them on hand for the soup.
Edit: I wonder if the bumf mentions the midges and clegs, and the rain, the absolutely pouring rain (but one can be lucky, and get up the hills on a brilliant day the next day). And the fact that Rùm is mostly a NNR.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Sometimes principles have to go before bad headlines in the gutter press.
But the principle itself is wrong, or does it make sense to you that the rights of asylum seekers are placed above the rights of citizens?
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
It's just gone on my list to visit. It's 1962, with stained glass by a chap who worked on Coventry Cathedral, and the roof is a HYPERBOLID PARABOLOID *. We don't have many outstanding modern church buildings around here - but there are some from that period.
Confused me at first: a hyperbola and a parabola are quite different, but the obvious answer turns out to be correct - it's sort of one from side to side and the other from front to back. Like, apparently, a Pringle of all things.
The value of them is that require far less concrete. If travelling South, the Markham Moor services on the A1 have one with a Starbucks underneath.
There is still one at the former Commonwealth Institute in London, but the developers built flats round it, and the building was gutted but for the roof and walls: https://maps.app.goo.gl/irJDc4ciW4QsACgcA
Other variations are in the Lee Valley Velodrome for 2012, and the Smithfield Poultry Market, soon to be home to the Museum of London, which is spectacular:
The concrete shell roof spans 225 × 125 feet (69 × 38 m), with a double curvature sheet in the form of an elliptic paraboloid, mostly only 3 inches (7.6 cm) thick but up to 6 inches (15 cm) at the edges. It is claimed to be the largest concrete shell structure ever built, and the largest clear spanning dome roof in Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithfield_Poultry_Market
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
Put up detention camps with tents and high fences on state owned land.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
Ex army barracks as Farage is pushing
"Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud'"
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1752571/nigel-farage-government-stop-the-boats-plan-raf-scampton-wetherfield Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud' Farage warned "not a single person will leave the over 450 hotels they're housed in already" in a row over the Government's large migrant expenses. The former UKIP leader fumed over how all of the bases combined weren’t enough to slash the taxpayers' bill being paid for asylum seeker hotels. He complained the bases were only big enough to house a few weeks' worth of incoming asylum seekers.
Earlier today, Immigration minister Robert Jenrick told the House of Commons that "thousands" would be accommodated at former RAF sites in Essex and Lincolnshire.
'Reform UK's policy would amount to a huge increase in the number of deportations and goes further than any previous plans outlined by other political parties.
There were 10,652 asylum-related returns in the year to June, according to Home Office data.
Under the plan, people would be arrested on arrival, detained at disused RAF bases and, if agreements were reached, returned to their countries of origin, including Afghanistan and Eritrea, where a significant number of people on small boats come from.
The party says it would build removal centres in remote areas of the country under plans to detain up to 24,000 people within 18 months.'
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Sometimes principles have to go before bad headlines in the gutter press.
The principle that a government should place the interests of non-citizens, above the interests of citizens (which many public international lawyers believe in), is fatal to the existence of liberal democracy.
You could have a field day with that - you could write utterly preposterous stories say Reform doubling council tax, and follow it up with when asked party spokesman refused to confirm or deny the allegation
They still support the policy ... just not in their back yard.
Now that Reform are starting to come out with policies and running councils, they’re little by little building up a store of Achilles heels with which other parties - probably mainly the Tories - can beat them.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Thanks - very interesting. I suppose, though, that the number of voters likely to be involved in a left-leaning realignment appears to be much smaller than the realignment on the right. But with FPTP in the current political climate, the consequences might be considerable.
It's complex both ends, and I'd hate to have to call it for money.
* Pride in London drew 1 million + spectators in July. * The last round of Asylum Hotel protests had more opponents than supporters afaics. * Lee Anderson's "bugger off, media" post this morning had 3k likes, many tribal but some fairly soft judging by people I know. * Unsavoury incidents (threatened grandad, legal immigrant threatened with knife in Glasgow) seem to be getting some cut-through. * England Flags Everywhere feels more rolling than spontaneous - travelling groups trying to look more general than they are? * A bit of public resistance being seen (eg my "Not on Our Church You Don't" link) ? * Will RefUK be moving to less inflammatory narratives? (Is Farage still comfortable with Rape Gangs and Asylum Seekers Raping Our Girls? ) * What will the Jenrick / Philp fringe of the Cons do?
Watch the Reform supporter coalition, perhaps, and see how it holds together.
I think Lee Anderson needs to launch the Full English Party .
Its bad enough racists trying to hijack the flag, please don't let them hijack the Full English.
They'll pry my Emulsified High-Fat Offal Tube out of my child dead hands.
OT - Reform have of course already accepted they won't be able to deport in anywhere near the numbers suggested. But they got the unchallenged headlines didn't they?
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
For the full restoration you'd have to put the alligator tank back.
Shame about the iron frame though, going to be multiple millions to sort out.
On a small point, it was a turtle pool, not alligator; to have them on hand for the soup.
Edit: I wonder if the bumf mentions the midges and clegs, and the rain, the absolutely pouring rain (but one can be lucky, and get up the hills on a brilliant day the next day). And the fact that Rùm is mostly a NNR.
I could have sworn someone mentioned alligators! Was quite a while since I was there though.
We had 4 days of blazing sunshine at the end of April without a midge in sight and as a consequence I've never dared to go back.
The whole place is mad and if I had the money I'd definitely be stupid enough to do it.
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
Ex army barracks as Farage is pushing
"Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud'"
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1752571/nigel-farage-government-stop-the-boats-plan-raf-scampton-wetherfield Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud' Farage warned "not a single person will leave the over 450 hotels they're housed in already" in a row over the Government's large migrant expenses. The former UKIP leader fumed over how all of the bases combined weren’t enough to slash the taxpayers' bill being paid for asylum seeker hotels. He complained the bases were only big enough to house a few weeks' worth of incoming asylum seekers.
Earlier today, Immigration minister Robert Jenrick told the House of Commons that "thousands" would be accommodated at former RAF sites in Essex and Lincolnshire.
'Reform UK's policy would amount to a huge increase in the number of deportations and goes further than any previous plans outlined by other political parties.
There were 10,652 asylum-related returns in the year to June, according to Home Office data.
Under the plan, people would be arrested on arrival, detained at disused RAF bases and, if agreements were reached, returned to their countries of origin, including Afghanistan and Eritrea, where a significant number of people on small boats come from.
The party says it would build removal centres in remote areas of the country under plans to detain up to 24,000 people within 18 months.'
OT - Reform have of course already accepted they won't be able to deport in anywhere near the numbers suggested. But they got the unchallenged headlines didn't they?
And with the govt appealing the decision to remove ‘migrants’ from the Epping Hotel today, giving an impression of being anti locals and pro migrant, I suspect Reform will continue to do well off the back of it.
I'm all up for taxing the Taliban personally: although clearly collection is going to pose free difficulties. Presumably, though, we could create some kind of private business to do the administration and tax collection?
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
It's just gone on my list to visit. It's 1962, with stained glass by a chap who worked on Coventry Cathedral, and the roof is a HYPERBOLID PARABOLOID *. We don't have many outstanding modern church buildings around here - but there are some from that period.
Confused me at first: a hyperbola and a parabola are quite different, but the obvious answer turns out to be correct - it's sort of one from side to side and the other from front to back. Like, apparently, a Pringle of all things.
The value of them is that require far less concrete. If travelling South, the Markham Moor services on the A1 have one with a Starbucks underneath.
There is still one at the former Commonwealth Institute in London, but the developers built flats round it, and the building was gutted but for the roof and walls: https://maps.app.goo.gl/irJDc4ciW4QsACgcA
Other variations are in the Lee Valley Velodrome for 2012, and the Smithfield Poultry Market, soon to be home to the Museum of London, which is spectacular:
The concrete shell roof spans 225 × 125 feet (69 × 38 m), with a double curvature sheet in the form of an elliptic paraboloid, mostly only 3 inches (7.6 cm) thick but up to 6 inches (15 cm) at the edges. It is claimed to be the largest concrete shell structure ever built, and the largest clear spanning dome roof in Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithfield_Poultry_Market
In trying to win the appeal against the asylum hotel closure/injunction the lawyers are making very lawyerly arguments which may succeed but in doing so they are writing headlines for the next few months that will push Reform's vote share up into the mid 30s.
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Phasing out the hotels will take time and so that decision can’t be allowed to stand . Where do the public propose migrants are placed during that time ?
The politicians moaning loudest are the ones who created the mess we are in today. The media moaning loudest were the cheerleaders of those politicians. It would be good if they could admit they don't have the solutions themselves either.
The truth, and the full horror of it, will out in the end, as it always does. Presumably Israel's PM is working to a shorter time horizon and doesnt care about the longer term consequences for his country, and its reputation
Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa accuses U.S. President Donald Trump of acting as a Soviet/Russian asset in the Ukraine war, claiming the current U.S. leadership has strategically favored Russia while sidelining Ukraine and Europe in recent negotiations. https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1960997432759664768
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Scene : Generic business meeting room
Suit 1 : so, Mr Yaxley-Lennon, please explain your pitch
YX : {flips flip chart} step 1 is being sent to prison for something I can pretend is unfair. The trial gives lots of opportunities to gain monetised followers.
Suits nod
YX : step 2 is building outrage on social media, leading to more monetised followers.
Suits nod
YX : step 3 is triumphal release from prison. Leading to even more monetised followers.
Suits nod
YX: step 4 is step 1
Suit 1 : {smiles} Excellent pitch. I’ll have to take it to the board but I think I can guarantee our backing at this stage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraboloid#Hyperbolic_paraboloid
The issue is whether the £2 EU fee is in addition to EU member states' VAT or whether it replaces it. In the latter hcase, it'll be a hell of a bargain compared to UK VAT and a ransom fee (well it feels like it) to RM of at least a tenner flat fee.
* Pride in London drew 1 million + spectators in July.
* The last round of Asylum Hotel protests had more opponents than supporters afaics.
* Lee Anderson's "bugger off, media" post this morning had 3k likes, many tribal but some fairly soft judging by people I know.
* Unsavoury incidents (threatened grandad, legal immigrant threatened with knife in Glasgow) seem to be getting some cut-through.
* England Flags Everywhere feels more rolling than spontaneous - travelling groups trying to look more general than they are?
* A bit of public resistance being seen (eg my "Not on Our Church You Don't" link) ?
* Will RefUK be moving to less inflammatory narratives? (Is Farage still comfortable with Rape Gangs and Asylum Seekers Raping Our Girls? )
* What will the Jenrick / Philp fringe of the Cons do?
Watch the Reform supporter coalition, perhaps, and see how it holds together.
I think Lee Anderson needs to launch the Full English Party
There are not only Tory and Reform candidates, even in your seat there will be a token Lib Dem or Labour candidate he can vote for.
As a general rule of thumb you can drop anything before the "but" but you can't drop "if" statements.
On a related note, does make me wonder if the process state was directly to blame for Brexit. Over-zealous enforcement of EU rules by an over-zealous bureaucracy.
A lot of their policies apparently poll badly, yet the party is polling pretty well in VI regardless of this.
So why is this the case?
My current theory is that the Reform momentum is greater as a whole than the sum of its parts. There are enough voters who are fed up with mainstream policies that they are willing to accept things they may find distasteful or that they don’t really like because they feel the broad direction of travel is better under Reform than the alternatives. As a result, specific issue polling won’t tell us very much about the performance of Reform - it simply possesses enough of a “hold your nose and vote for them regardless” quality. We saw this in the US, too.
All that said it must present some opportunity for the mainstream parties in that they have to be making hay in exposing and exploiting the unpopular policies to create sufficient doubt in people’s minds. Whether they can do it successfully or not will depend very much on how much they are able to combat that feeling of voter anger against the mainstream. And the jury is still very much out on that. Hence why GE2029 is so unpredictable.
The U.K. attitude seemed to be “If enforcing this hurts the UK and upsets lots of people - awesome, it proves our commitment. Let’s enforce this to the utmost possible.”
This property will appeal to many PBers for different reasons.
Scottish castle with miniature railway on the market for £3.25m
Seventeen-bedroom estate which hosted Mark Twain and housed a famous love triangle could be yours
A Scottish castle which was once home to a famous love triangle is for sale for £3.25m.
Ayton Castle, a 17-bedroom Victorian pile, near Eyemouth, is built around a medieval tower house, and was one of two Baronial structures designed by 19th century architect, James Gillespie Graham.
The category-A listed building features three state rooms with 17th century Scottish-style plasterwork, alongside a private chapel, and a kitchen with a butlers’ pantry.
The estate features a narrow gauge railway – which runs through part of the grounds – complete with platform, ticket office, engine shed and joiner’s shop. The barony of Ayton, which dates back to 1324, is also for sale.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/scottish-castle-miniature-railway-market/
A four page EU Directive would become two hundred pages of regulations and guidance.
"Katerina Buchy, director of Sheffield-based giftware wholesaler Ancient Wisdom, said low-value imports were hitting her company's business because it couldn't compete with the prices on sites like Shein and Temu. "
If your livelihood is selling the same things as Shein and Temu at higher prices you are bad at business and the government should not impose extra costs on well-run businesses to save you.
There is still one at the former Commonwealth Institute in London, but the developers built flats round it, and the building was gutted but for the roof and walls:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/irJDc4ciW4QsACgcA
Other variations are in the Lee Valley Velodrome for 2012, and the Smithfield Poultry Market, soon to be home to the Museum of London, which is spectacular:
The concrete shell roof spans 225 × 125 feet (69 × 38 m), with a double curvature sheet in the form of an elliptic paraboloid, mostly only 3 inches (7.6 cm) thick but up to 6 inches (15 cm) at the edges. It is claimed to be the largest concrete shell structure ever built, and the largest clear spanning dome roof in Europe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithfield_Poultry_Market
There don't seem to be any in Scotland on the list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hyperboloid_structures
There are lots of Labour people like me - at least 25% of the membership, I'd say - and we are not exclusively basing our choices on probability to win outright We feel the voters are in sufficient flux to give a serious leftish party a reasonable chance. We might be wrong, but it's a mistake to assume we don't exist.
Hence Yougov found most voters oppose Farage's return migrants to the Taliban policy
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cger45p0lv0o
Saying out loud on behalf of the government that due to article whatever of some international convention the rights of asylum seekers override the rights of local people is a fucking disaster for the government and the Labour party. It may be legally correct but saying it out loud and telling the voters and taxpayers that they rate lower for the state than asylum seekers feeds into the already existing memes about two tier Kier.
Absolute fucking disaster for the government even if it wins them the legal case. Talk about a scorched earth strategy, did no one with any political sense tell them that it's better to lose than to go into a very high profile court case and win by saying asylum seekers have a higher claim to rights then citizens. Wtf were they thinking.
Ironically Farage and Badenoch probably want the government to win this appeal, as politically it would be damaging to Labour hitting their white working class vote even more. Whereas Starmer should politically want to lose it as then he will have to close hotels for migrants and can tell left liberal migrant lovers, 'wasn't me guv but the judges who made us do it'
https://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbedrugls210210
That sums up the attitude you're criticising. They're incapable of comprehending what you're saying as they genuinely believe in what they're saying.
Shame about the iron frame though, going to be multiple millions to sort out.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51713-is-tactical-voting-more-of-a-threat-or-opportunity-for-reform-uk
Indeed, it's not hypothetical since my current seat has a Tory MP with Reform in decent second place, which on current polls would be a Reform gain. And by Tory standards the local MP isn't too bad. But I will be voting Green or LibDem; most probably LibDem next time despite having voted Green in the last three GEs.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1752571/nigel-farage-government-stop-the-boats-plan-raf-scampton-wetherfield
Farage slams Suella Braverman's plan to house migrants on military bases as 'utter fraud'
Farage warned "not a single person will leave the over 450 hotels they're housed in already" in a row over the Government's large migrant expenses. The former UKIP leader fumed over how all of the bases combined weren’t enough to slash the taxpayers' bill being paid for asylum seeker hotels. He complained the bases were only big enough to house a few weeks' worth of incoming asylum seekers.
Earlier today, Immigration minister Robert Jenrick told the House of Commons that "thousands" would be accommodated at former RAF sites in Essex and Lincolnshire.
How is that "not all that left-wing"?? Unless your Overton window has fallen out of its frame.
Edit: I wonder if the bumf mentions the midges and clegs, and the rain, the absolutely pouring rain (but one can be lucky, and get up the hills on a brilliant day the next day). And the fact that Rùm is mostly a NNR.
https://c20society.org.uk/building-of-the-month/queensgate-market-huddersfield
There were 10,652 asylum-related returns in the year to June, according to Home Office data.
Under the plan, people would be arrested on arrival, detained at disused RAF bases and, if agreements were reached, returned to their countries of origin, including Afghanistan and Eritrea, where a significant number of people on small boats come from.
The party says it would build removal centres in remote areas of the country under plans to detain up to 24,000 people within 18 months.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yk4r5e514o
No criticism yesterday of the Farage catastrophuck U turn, but boots on for a Starmer kicking.
Does a Farage free pass counterbalanced with a critique of Starmer demonstrate BBC impartiality?
No fracking in Lancashire, says Reform-led council
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e13l7n1y1o
They still support the policy ... just not in their back yard.
Just wait for model YTesla sales in Europe slump 40% as BYD new car registrations more than triple
Electric car business run by Elon Musk continues to lose ground to Chinese rival despite recent revamp of Model Y
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/aug/28/tesla-sales-in-europe-slump-byd-new-car-registrations-more-than-triple-elon-musk
As I’ve pointed out before I’m confused as to why anyone objects to any attempt to make Blackpool into it’s own island
So far today we have:
- the Taliban tax
- Fracking in your backyard
Interesting to see what others emerge.
We had 4 days of blazing sunshine at the end of April without a midge in sight and as a consequence I've never dared to go back.
The whole place is mad and if I had the money I'd definitely be stupid enough to do it.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1960804747361050920
Is something going on, or just sabre rattling ?
@LadPolitics
Anyone else struggling to see the case for Labour pulling the trigger on an early election?
We're top price 50/1 on a 2025 election & 20/1 on 2026, if anyone wants a bet...
but then I saw The Telegraph
Seven common tropes used to deny Gaza’s famine, debunked by an expert
The chorus of denial around serious food insecurity in the Strip is more than falsehood – it is active disinformation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/seven-common-tropes-used-to-deny-gazas-famine-debunked/?recomm_id=718d1aa1-2bf3-47d2-be01-378a750cbcfb
With all the important news in the world, the most important news is not a speech by Farage for god's sake!!
This is so unbalanced that I question the impartiality of the editor.
Who was the named individual who made this editorial decision?
Have you knowledge of their political allegiance e.g. their social media posts?
Will you please fire them, or at least, move them off news?
----------
And got a response
Thank you for contacting us,
BBC Complaints Team
www.bbc.co.uk/complaints"
* Well, we'll see how successful it was in time
Wolves scored?
These days I just am.
https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/nord-stream-sabotage-104.html
Investigators seem pretty sure they know the names of the Ukrainians who did it, and they have evidence of Ukrainian state involvement.
https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1960997432759664768
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1961050892725076102?s=61