The Conservatives beat Labour 58% to 24% in 2019 in South Norfolk - though > 50% voted for a centre-left party in 2024, with the Conservatives and Reform splitting 44%
Reform would probably fancy their chances here of trying to win this in a 3-way contest. Labour's chances of defending the seat would depend on being the progressive anti-populist candidate with first-time voters, Labour, LibDems, Greens, potentially some liberal/moderate ex-Tory voters
This is broadly the voice+ argument that LibDem MPs would be using to secure an anti-populist plurality in their 72 seats (v likely to succeed). It may be underestimated that Labour's marginal seats depends on maintaining a broad progressive + centre/moderate coalition across different geographies
There's nearly four years for Reform's bullshit to unravel before the election.
Currently well ahead of schedule...
Don't you think it's a bit complacent to assume their support will move in the direction you would like it to?
The question is how much potential support the Farage Party have over their current support.
There are certainly some who would never vote for them; and some who would vote for them - or worse - every time. Then there are those who are Farage-curious, who might be tempted to vote for them, who like some of the policies but are wary of others.
Their capability to get out their vote will also be interesting.
I wonder if this will make Farage reluctant to announce detailed policies before the election.
Given his policies are pretty off the wall, and appear to be based on a mixture of naivety and ignorance, that would probably be to his advantage.
I can't understand why he departed from that. His whole career has been essentially babbling pub bore level nonsense and letting people fill in the gaps themselves. And he's been very successful with it.
It seems generous to describe his policies as "based on a mixture of naivety and ignorance". They look more to be based on radical right social media talking points and importing MAGA rhetoric.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
Forgive me if my reading comprehension is not strong but where in that quote does it mention anything about an active proposal to pay the Taliban money, which is what Reform suggested as a policy, and the header’s poll was about? They proactively decided to put out a policy (rather than being “open” to suggestions) and are being criticised for said policy. Being a snowflake and crying about people being rude about them being “nasty” is not going to get far.
Forgive me for not liking your snidey tone, but any deal with Afghanistan is going to involve cosying up to the Taliban one way or another, that’s just reality. Of course people in opinion polls are going to say they don’t like being anything but horrible to bad people, but life’s not perfect
There's nearly four years for Reform's bullshit to unravel before the election.
Currently well ahead of schedule...
Don't you think it's a bit complacent to assume their support will move in the direction you would like it to?
Are you unfamiliar with MM's oeuvre? 99% of his output is hopes and dreams presented as prognostication. See his Kamala/Trump material.
Whilst your oeuvre is that you dislike everyone and think everyone is terrible. You rarely, if ever, have anything positive to say about anyone or anything. Except, perhaps, cars and bikes.
There's nearly four years for Reform's bullshit to unravel before the election.
Currently well ahead of schedule...
Don't you think it's a bit complacent to assume their support will move in the direction you would like it to?
The question is how much potential support the Farage Party have over their current support.
There are certainly some who would never vote for them; and some who would vote for them - or worse - every time. Then there are those who are Farage-curious, who might be tempted to vote for them, who like some of the policies but are wary of others.
Their capability to get out their vote will also be interesting.
Probably c.40% is their ceiling, if the Conservatives fold.
It wouldn't be that surprising if Republicans try to get around the 19th Amendment. The House has already passed the SAVE act, which is designed to discourage married women who have taken their husband's name from voting.
Absolute sea of St George on the road markings near me ! Whoever is doing the spraying needs to buy some white cans though for the miniroundabouts as the council don't seem to have repainted them white in years.
A Green friend of mine has pointed out how easy it is to convert these patriotic mini-roundabouts to anarchist or extinction rebellion symbols with a few additions...
The main takeaway from the last few years is that there are far, far more people who like the flag than who like XR....
There's nearly four years for Reform's bullshit to unravel before the election.
Currently well ahead of schedule...
Don't you think it's a bit complacent to assume their support will move in the direction you would like it to?
The question is how much potential support the Farage Party have over their current support.
There are certainly some who would never vote for them; and some who would vote for them - or worse - every time. Then there are those who are Farage-curious, who might be tempted to vote for them, who like some of the policies but are wary of others.
Their capability to get out their vote will also be interesting.
Probably c.40% is their ceiling, if the Conservatives fold.
With everyone else stuck on tens that looks pretty comprehensive to me. Although the last two days have been a long time in politics for Reform.
Reform has some really worrying tendencies. I fear for this country if they ever get into power at Westminster.
OOOH it went national, and the Council Leader banning all his Councillors from talking to the Local Democracy Reporting Service and the main regional newspaper is a significant move.
My Facebook link was Agent Anderson backing up the Council Leader. It has a lot of likes and some dispute.
Anderson's post has quite a number of likes, but there will be a lot of drive-by support.
There's nearly four years for Reform's bullshit to unravel before the election.
Currently well ahead of schedule...
Quite. The reality is that it is far more likely that Farage steps on a political landmine than that he ever enters Number 10. Those punters who are taking the bait at the moment are pretty much mugs.
Or, he steps on a political landmine and the voters don't care.
Trump blew himself to pieces by conventional political standards more times than he plays golf and yet is now in WH again.
Feels to me like 30-odd % of public have made their mind up to be honest and want Farage's lovely snakeoil down their gullets.
The polls suggest that Reform are topping out and the Tories are bottoming out.
Labour still on a ski slope, though.
On that chart, since the general election until Spring this year the main movement was Labour to Reform with the Tories largely treading water.
This summer however there has been a move from Labour to LD and Green while most of the Reform gains have come from the Tories
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
As might have been expected, Reform’s much vaunted solutions to the problems of the “small boats” have turned out to have more holes than some might wish the aforementioned boats to possess.
If an Afghani arrives here illegally, the Reform plan would be for him (presumably) to be immediately arrested, sent to one of the “super camps” and deported back to Kabul.
If an Afghani arrives here legally and seeks asylum, he will be offered £2500 to drop his case and be deported and if his appeal is unsuccessful, he will also be deported and only if he gets granted approval to stay will he be released from the super camp and allowed into the general population.
We will return deported Afghanis, Eritreans, Sudanese etc whether we have return agreements with the prospective Governments and hope, in the traditional style of doing business, giving said Governments a large amount of cash will make things happen - it might.
The hope is or will be the sheer deterrence will be enough to stop those seeking to enter Britain illegally - it probably won’t. Given we are told France is in the cusp of societal and economic meltdown, I imagine we’ll see boatloads of French trying to come over as well.
I’m left with the thought the ECHR now is no longer fit for purpose for all its original intentions were noble and it worked well enough in the world of the Cold War. Simply walking away from it, however, is no more the answer than it was for our membership of the EU. Seeking to redefine an ECHR for the 21st Century would be much more positive and I’d like to see us lead on that working with other European countries rather than storming off in a huff when things don’t go our way.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
I'm LD and I'd go for Sultana over Reform any day.
My guess is that Con and Lab will recover a bit over the next four years as they sort themselves out. LD and Green will benefit from more publicity in a GE, and Reform will suffer. So my GB share guess for the next GE is Con 20%, Lab 20%, LD 18%, Grn 12%, Other 10%, Reform 20% Lab and Ref neck and neck on about 175 seats each. Con on 135, LD on 100, Grn on 20. Well and truly hung. SNP hold the balance of power.
Absolute sea of St George on the road markings near me ! Whoever is doing the spraying needs to buy some white cans though for the miniroundabouts as the council don't seem to have repainted them white in years.
A Green friend of mine has pointed out how easy it is to convert these patriotic mini-roundabouts to anarchist or extinction rebellion symbols with a few additions...
The main takeaway from the last few years is that there are far, far more people who like the flag than who like XR....
AFAICS it's the hard edge who are doing the flags - I'm not even sure it is RefUK other than the rhetoric; most RefUK supporters known to me are not taking part. That, like most RefUK things, is likely to be variable by area.
Removal is also interesting- it will be an LHA responsibility, so Districts won't touch it.
@Foxy which anarchy symbol can a Red Cross be turned into?
As might have been expected, Reform’s much vaunted solutions to the problems of the “small boats” have turned out to have more holes than some might wish the aforementioned boats to possess.
If an Afghani arrives here illegally, the Reform plan would be for him (presumably) to be immediately arrested, sent to one of the “super camps” and deported back to Kabul.
If an Afghani arrives here legally and seeks asylum, he will be offered £2500 to drop his case and be deported and if his appeal is unsuccessful, he will also be deported and only if he gets granted approval to stay will he be released from the super camp and allowed into the general population.
We will return deported Afghanis, Eritreans, Sudanese etc whether we have return agreements with the prospective Governments and hope, in the traditional style of doing business, giving said Governments a large amount of cash will make things happen - it might.
The hope is or will be the sheer deterrence will be enough to stop those seeking to enter Britain illegally - it probably won’t. Given we are told France is in the cusp of societal and economic meltdown, I imagine we’ll see boatloads of French trying to come over as well.
I’m left with the thought the ECHR now is no longer fit for purpose for all its original intentions were noble and it worked well enough in the world of the Cold War. Simply walking away from it, however, is no more the answer than it was for our membership of the EU. Seeking to redefine an ECHR for the 21st Century would be much more positive and I’d like to see us lead on that working with other European countries rather than storming off in a huff when things don’t go our way.
Giving people free money and an owl to go away would be an interesting strategy to stop them coming.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
I seriously doubt that will change public opinion on any deal which involves paying the Taliban.
Whether from Farage or Starmer.
The money involved seems trivial going by the German deal, €1000 per deportee. If that's all it takes then we should sign up tomorrow.
The Germans are apparently only sending back failed asylum seekers and criminals . It’s not a blanket policy like the one proposed by Reform which seeks to send all Afghans back .
Which is still better than what we do. Would you be against that kind of deal?
Currently 300 people held there, cost to the state of Florida $245 million up to July. Both State and Federal Governments are in a sloping shoulders competition. So at least it's cheaper than Rwanda.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
I'm LD and I'd go for Sultana over Reform any day.
My guess is that Con and Lab will recover a bit over the next four years as they sort themselves out. LD and Green will benefit from more publicity in a GE, and Reform will suffer. So my GB share guess for the next GE is Con 20%, Lab 20%, LD 18%, Grn 12%, Other 10%, Reform 20% Lab and Ref neck and neck on about 175 seats each. Con on 135, LD on 100, Grn on 20. Well and truly hung. SNP hold the balance of power.
But a Tory and Reform majority in England and Wales on those numbers even if a Labour plus LD plus Green plus SNP majority UK wide
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
My former council tried that, to try and stop fly-tipping. But, strangely, the type of people dumping their old mattresses in the street during the night turned out not to be the sort of people willing to phone the council, listen to the music for five minutes and then schedule an appointment at home when they would sit with their mattress and wait for the council van to call.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
There's nearly four years for Reform's bullshit to unravel before the election.
Currently well ahead of schedule...
Don't you think it's a bit complacent to assume their support will move in the direction you would like it to?
The question is how much potential support the Farage Party have over their current support.
There are certainly some who would never vote for them; and some who would vote for them - or worse - every time. Then there are those who are Farage-curious, who might be tempted to vote for them, who like some of the policies but are wary of others.
Their capability to get out their vote will also be interesting.
Probably c.40% is their ceiling, if the Conservatives fold.
More like 35 to 40%, about a third of current Conservative voters would vote LD over Reform
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Voters are an idiosyncratic lot. I remember an ex's grandfather who was deciding between the BNP and the Greens. Another ex converted from Communist to LibDem. Not all voters see parties the same way.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
Forgive me if my reading comprehension is not strong but where in that quote does it mention anything about an active proposal to pay the Taliban money, which is what Reform suggested as a policy, and the header’s poll was about? They proactively decided to put out a policy (rather than being “open” to suggestions) and are being criticised for said policy. Being a snowflake and crying about people being rude about them being “nasty” is not going to get far.
Forgive me for not liking your snidey tone, but any deal with Afghanistan is going to involve cosying up to the Taliban one way or another, that’s just reality. Of course people in opinion polls are going to say they don’t like being anything but horrible to bad people, but life’s not perfect
Neither is political campaigning.
Farage's side of politics has spent the last decade taking the piss out of his opponents for not being able to answer his style of messaging. Tying him to the Taliban is just sauce for the old gander, with a soupçon of truth in there somewhere.
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
He's taken advantage of a public service to generate a profit, offloading the later costs of actually storing, recycling and exporting the stuff to the council.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Voters are an idiosyncratic lot. I remember an ex's grandfather who was deciding between the BNP and the Greens. Another ex converted from Communist to LibDem. Not all voters see parties the same way.
Quite.
One of the fatal miscalculations that LD activists made in 2019 (your next PM Jo Swinson, anyone?) was assuming that their voters - particularly in the SW, were strong Remainers.
Scores of previously LD VIs that I canvassed came out strongly for May in 2017 and Boris in 2019......
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Voters are an idiosyncratic lot. I remember an ex's grandfather who was deciding between the BNP and the Greens. Another ex converted from Communist to LibDem. Not all voters see parties the same way.
I've been on a similar journey, during my life, to your second example, I've had a side step to the Greens due to the excellence of the candidate. Candidates can, sometimes at least, make a difference. I went to a hustings before the last elections; the Labour and LibDem candidates came across very badly, to me and several people I spoke to afterwards. The Reformer was good until he got onto immigration, when he lost me completely. I was somewhat tempted by the rather naive Independent. The Conservative, as the sitting MP, appeared to think she was safe and didn't need to worry too much.
And completely ineffective. Just making smug remainers feel smug about themselves. Number of voters converted: zero
I don’t think it’s meant to convert anyone . It’s just funny and yes Remainers like myself do feel smug and more sure by the day that I voted the right way .
Can you imagine being a Leave voter? Waking up every day and knowing that you did that?
Ensured that we developed a vaccine early, were able to be early to support Ukraine, and were not included in the EU trade issues with the US.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
My former council tried that, to try and stop fly-tipping. But, strangely, the type of people dumping their old mattresses in the street during the night turned out not to be the sort of people willing to phone the council, listen to the music for five minutes and then schedule an appointment at home when they would sit with their mattress and wait for the council van to call.
Never had to sit at home and wait, but when I owned flat we used to take it in turns to get stuff cleared when other residents hadn't been bothered to arrange a collection. Presumably the same people who'd leave their bin bag on the steps in the bin room rather than in the empty bin just past the full one.
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
Here the annual "spring clean" (public skips on the streets) and this have been Ashfield Independent distinctives.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Voters are an idiosyncratic lot. I remember an ex's grandfather who was deciding between the BNP and the Greens. Another ex converted from Communist to LibDem. Not all voters see parties the same way.
While I've been on a similar journey, during my life, to your second example, I've had a side step to the Greens due to the excellence of the candidate. Candidates can, sometimes at least, make a difference. I went to a hustings before the last elections; the Labour and LibDem candidates came across very badly, to me and several people I spoke to afterwards. The Reformer was good until he got onto immigration, when he lost me completely. I was somewhat tempted by the rather naive Independent. The Conservative, as the sitting MP, appeared to think she was safe and didn't need to worry too much.
Indeed. Voters sometimes focus on the quality of the candidate. Voters sometimes focus on a single issue. (I'm a loyal LibDem voter, but would never have voted for David Alton given his abortion stance.)
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
He's taken advantage of a public service to generate a profit, offloading the later costs of actually storing, recycling and exporting the stuff to the council.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
He has to pay to dispose, precisely because he is commercial. He charges x per ton of stuff, where x is based on what he gets charged.
The real problem, most suspect, is that the council is trying to reduce waste disposal by fiat, without saying so.
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
He's taken advantage of a public service to generate a profit, offloading the later costs of actually storing, recycling and exporting the stuff to the council.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
He has to pay to dispose, precisely because he is commercial. He charges x per ton of stuff, where x is based on what he gets charged.
The real problem, most suspect, is that the council is trying to reduce waste disposal by fiat, without saying so.
I doubt that's the reason but it is a bit weird if he is getting charged the commercial rate. Fire up the FOI machine.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
Voters are an idiosyncratic lot. I remember an ex's grandfather who was deciding between the BNP and the Greens. Another ex converted from Communist to LibDem. Not all voters see parties the same way.
While I've been on a similar journey, during my life, to your second example, I've had a side step to the Greens due to the excellence of the candidate. Candidates can, sometimes at least, make a difference. I went to a hustings before the last elections; the Labour and LibDem candidates came across very badly, to me and several people I spoke to afterwards. The Reformer was good until he got onto immigration, when he lost me completely. I was somewhat tempted by the rather naive Independent. The Conservative, as the sitting MP, appeared to think she was safe and didn't need to worry too much.
Indeed. Voters sometimes focus on the quality of the candidate. Voters sometimes focus on a single issue. (I'm a loyal LibDem voter, but would never have voted for David Alton given his abortion stance.)
Yes, Alton was a Lib/LibDem MP during my Liberal activist phase and I was rather glad, as it turned out, that he wasn't my candidate.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
Let's hope that there are no seats where the only choice is Tory or Reform. What a choice!
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Thee were two very popular Austrian restaurants in Southend (well, Leigh-on-Sea to be accurate) in the 70's. I know one's been pulled down now; not sure about the other. Haven't been past where it was for ages.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
From deep in the back of my mind, I recall there is a longstanding one in Torquay:
Maybe Farage understands what he needs to do to gain administrative knowledge.
“Farage welcomed his new MSP, adding he hoped Simpson would be able to "show us the ropes" after the election next year, in which Reform hopes to see a glut of MSPs elected.
Simpson will take on a key role in shaping the party's policy offering.
But the pair denied he would automatically be drafted in to lead the party ahead of May, with a decision still to be made on who will be put forward for leadership debates and other events.
Asked about the number of former Tories defecting to Reform, Farage said: "I'll absolutely not allow this to become the Tory party 2.0, and I'm not going to be the vehicle for those just to rescue their careers in parliament."
But referring to the number of Reform councillors who have quit the party or quit elected office since the English local elections in May, he added this showed "you need experience" as the better performing councils were ones where Reform councillors existed prior to this year.”
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
He's taken advantage of a public service to generate a profit, offloading the later costs of actually storing, recycling and exporting the stuff to the council.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
He has to pay to dispose, precisely because he is commercial. He charges x per ton of stuff, where x is based on what he gets charged.
The real problem, most suspect, is that the council is trying to reduce waste disposal by fiat, without saying so.
I doubt that's the reason but it is a bit weird if he is getting charged the commercial rate. Fire up the FOI machine.
Not happy with FOI recently.
My County Council have switched to a practice which delivers a link to a third party service which only preserves material for 30 days.
That will undermine WhatDoTheyKnow's role as a public archive with a million FOI request results in it.
My last one had 16 documents in a 25Mb zip file about a run of 5 public footpaths in it, so I have the context as to what their status is to make my request. I think that should be available publicly given that they have taken the time and money to compile the data.
"A formal application for a new reservoir in Fenland must be submitted by March 2027, according to regulators.
In a letter to Anglian Water and Cambridge Water, The Regulators' Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID) insisted the deadline was necessary in order to "maintain momentum"."
Downing St said they were open to doing a deal on returning illegal migrants with Afghanistan the other day, which would surely involve the Taliban, so the faux horror about having to do a deal with nasty people is misplaced I think
I seriously doubt that will change public opinion on any deal which involves paying the Taliban.
Whether from Farage or Starmer.
The money involved seems trivial going by the German deal, €1000 per deportee. If that's all it takes then we should sign up tomorrow.
The Germans are apparently only sending back failed asylum seekers and criminals . It’s not a blanket policy like the one proposed by Reform which seeks to send all Afghans back .
ALL was 48 hours ago.
We've got children, probably all women, and of course anyone who helped the British army. At this rate they won't even need to leave the Refugee Convention.
"Trump is indeed the great peacemaker — he deserves all the credit for stimulating the incipient rapprochement between Delhi and Beijing," Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former US diplomat in New Delhi, said ironically. "He has singlehandedly pulled this off by treating India as an enemy,” Tellis told Bloomberg.
It's actually a bit odd that Trump is throwing away the US-India relationship built up over recent decades because India refuses to stop buying oil from Russia. I think he got pissed off with Modi because Modi contradicted his claim to have stopped the fighting between India and Pakistan.
Reflecting on the RefUK leader of Notts CC, and the Leeanderthal Man, refusing to talk to the key local press, I'm wondering:
1 - Is this on behalf of the Party, or the Council? 2 - If the latter, can they do this legally? Could it be Judicially reviewed? 3 - What does the Council Constitution say about disseminating information 4 - Would the Monitoring Officer be interested?
(I expect that the way to answer 1-3 is to ask 4 !)
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
He's taken advantage of a public service to generate a profit, offloading the later costs of actually storing, recycling and exporting the stuff to the council.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
He has to pay to dispose, precisely because he is commercial. He charges x per ton of stuff, where x is based on what he gets charged.
The real problem, most suspect, is that the council is trying to reduce waste disposal by fiat, without saying so.
I doubt that's the reason but it is a bit weird if he is getting charged the commercial rate. Fire up the FOI machine.
Not happy with FOI recently.
My County Council have taken to a service which delivers a link to a third party service which only preserves material for 30 days.
That will undermine WhatDoTheyKnow's role as a public archive with a million FOI request results in it.
My last one had 16 documents in a 25Mb zip file about a run of 5 public footpaths in it so I have the context as to what their status is, and I think that should be available publicly given that they have taken the time to compile the data.
That's stupid, increases the number of requests they get. I make an identical FOI every 6 months to support a dashboard I maintain. I've suggested they just turn it into a public bulletin, or even take on my work and publish my dashboard themselves. But no.
It's the usual problem of the council officers not having enough time to set up a permanent solution but overall spend more time dealing with requests than they would do otherwise.
Apparently, the latest thing is to slap a Union Jack or Cross of St George on old sofas etc. so the council takes them away free.
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
It's not.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
The local council stopped all of that.
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
He's taken advantage of a public service to generate a profit, offloading the later costs of actually storing, recycling and exporting the stuff to the council.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
He has to pay to dispose, precisely because he is commercial. He charges x per ton of stuff, where x is based on what he gets charged.
The real problem, most suspect, is that the council is trying to reduce waste disposal by fiat, without saying so.
I doubt that's the reason but it is a bit weird if he is getting charged the commercial rate. Fire up the FOI machine.
He is a commercial operator - picks up waste ranging from bits of wood to tons of rubble. Basically anything less than a skip.
The council are weird and very useless. They kicked Thames Tradesmen Rowing club out of their boathouse, demolished it and left the site empty. The council claimed that they wanted to make river usage more inclusive - the site has now been empty for years. No one uses it now. But a very expensive pedestrian footbridge was built. Leading to an empty building site.
What really happened there was the council got caught talking to property developers about the site and are now pretending… something.
Last I heard, the latest plan fell through because they couldn’t get anyone to believe they could charge a cafe a rent of £100k a year…
Anyone sane would have built a block of flats, half as council properties, with a boat club at the bottom. Been done tons of times on the Thames.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
There is a chunk of ex-Labour voters who want an ideologically pure party to vote for. No difficult choices - the Magic Money Tree *must* provide. Must - because saying no to spending is rude.
This is about True Labour
Greens are about 90% of what they want (currently). But purity is what they want. And the Greens are Spare Labour, not True Labour.
A small, eternally out of power, party of their own is perfection.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
Let's hope that there are no seats where the only choice is Tory or Reform. What a choice!
For sure. The chance of my voting for either of them is pretty close to zero. It's just that HY loves these simplistic assumptions that "all" or "no" supporters of a particular party share whetever set of preferences he happens to think is sensible or not so, whereas in reality it's much more complicated than that, and people have all sorts of reasons (including bizarre non-political ones) for who they'd rather vote for, or against.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Austrian or Tyrolean food is very welcome if you've spent the morning hiking up a mountain to get it. The danger is eating the food without doing the physical preparation for it.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Smoking, fondness for cash, also aversion to air conditioning in hotels
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
I didn't find that at all. In fact I took some Euros out just in case and had most of them left at the end of the weekend. I'm sure the Würst stands took contactless, the brewpub and Croatian grill restaurant did.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Surely Corbyn will initially be the leader on launch of Left party but he will hand over in time for GE campaign?
They'd be pretty stupid to stand against Reform UK because all it'll do is split the populist/right vote. The only exception to that is Lowe's seat in Great Yarmouth.
Habib has just done an interview with Andrew Gold. He didn't say much on Robinson, sticking to his view that the Attorney General should not have intervened in a civil case. Much more about Farage who he dismissed as self interested and controlling Reform as his own personal fiefdom. As for tactical voting remember we are still four years away from the election.
In other news the Russian economy looks more and more strained thanks to the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Hopefully the Flamingo cruise missiles will help to starve the bear further. My biggest concern is that Trump will try and sabotage it to help Putin.
FPT: When did the Attorney General intervene in a Civil Case?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
They'd be pretty stupid to stand against Reform UK because all it'll do is split the populist/right vote. The only exception to that is Lowe's seat in Great Yarmouth.
Habib has just done an interview with Andrew Gold. He didn't say much on Robinson, sticking to his view that the Attorney General should not have intervened in a civil case. Much more about Farage who he dismissed as self interested and controlling Reform as his own personal fiefdom. As for tactical voting remember we are still four years away from the election.
In other news the Russian economy looks more and more strained thanks to the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Hopefully the Flamingo cruise missiles will help to starve the bear further. My biggest concern is that Trump will try and sabotage it to help Putin.
FPT: When did the Attorney General intervene in a Civil Case?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
They'd be pretty stupid to stand against Reform UK because all it'll do is split the populist/right vote. The only exception to that is Lowe's seat in Great Yarmouth.
Habib has just done an interview with Andrew Gold. He didn't say much on Robinson, sticking to his view that the Attorney General should not have intervened in a civil case. Much more about Farage who he dismissed as self interested and controlling Reform as his own personal fiefdom. As for tactical voting remember we are still four years away from the election.
In other news the Russian economy looks more and more strained thanks to the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Hopefully the Flamingo cruise missiles will help to starve the bear further. My biggest concern is that Trump will try and sabotage it to help Putin.
FPT: When did the Attorney General intervene in a Civil Case?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
Forgive me if this has been raised before, but I am baffled by the time spent considering the Sultanas/Jezbollah as a credible political force. Where is their support going to come from? OK, I agree, the appalling situation in Gaza gives them a cause around which they can rally, but when a General Election comes, surely they are going to end up in the same category as the SWP, Communists, TUSC, IRP and all the other ideologically based left wing parties. Yes, they think Labour is doing a bad job (and so do I) but the average Labour voter isn't going to give much consideration to Corbyn - he's yesterday's man, and widely seen as a man who tried but failed. (Clegg and Johnson also come into that category.)
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
The nascent political grouping without a final name yet that is built around the Independent Alliance grouping have 6 MPs already. That makes them the fifth largest party in the Commons and 50% bigger than the Green Party. If the Green Party elect Polanski as their leader, as seems likely, you might have two parties looking rather similar, so which populist left firebrand do you want? Polanski or the original, Corbyn? Or maybe it's Polanski vs Sultana? Polanski wants an alliance, although Corbyn is sceptical of that. But my point is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Your Party. They might come out ahead of a tussle with the Greens, or part of a formal alliance with the Greens. Or they might sink without a trace.
All good points, which we should bear in mind. But are the half-dozen quasi-Independents really a homogenous group (inasmuchas any political grouping can ever be homogenous)? They strike me as a bunch of single issue candidates based in the "community" who were in the right place at the right time in July 2024.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Are the Independent Alliance MPs a homogenous bunch who can hold together in a political party? No idea! Maybe, maybe not.
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Thanks - very interesting. I suppose, though, that the number of voters likely to be involved in a left-leaning realignment appears to be much smaller than the realignment on the right. But with FPTP in the current political climate, the consequences might be considerable.
They'd be pretty stupid to stand against Reform UK because all it'll do is split the populist/right vote. The only exception to that is Lowe's seat in Great Yarmouth.
Habib has just done an interview with Andrew Gold. He didn't say much on Robinson, sticking to his view that the Attorney General should not have intervened in a civil case. Much more about Farage who he dismissed as self interested and controlling Reform as his own personal fiefdom. As for tactical voting remember we are still four years away from the election.
In other news the Russian economy looks more and more strained thanks to the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Hopefully the Flamingo cruise missiles will help to starve the bear further. My biggest concern is that Trump will try and sabotage it to help Putin.
FPT: When did the Attorney General intervene in a Civil Case?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Boris was a social democrat compared to Farage who got a deal with the EU and was relaxed about immigration overall.
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
Let's hope that there are no seats where the only choice is Tory or Reform. What a choice!
My own seat of Brentwood and Ongar had the Tories first and Reform second at the GE, overall there are likely to be 100 such seats at least given the higher Reform voteshare now and where the MP is still Tory
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Boris was a social democrat compared to Farage who got a deal with the EU and was relaxed about immigration overall.
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
Boris' policy over immigration is why we're in trouble over it now.
They'd be pretty stupid to stand against Reform UK because all it'll do is split the populist/right vote. The only exception to that is Lowe's seat in Great Yarmouth.
Habib has just done an interview with Andrew Gold. He didn't say much on Robinson, sticking to his view that the Attorney General should not have intervened in a civil case. Much more about Farage who he dismissed as self interested and controlling Reform as his own personal fiefdom. As for tactical voting remember we are still four years away from the election.
In other news the Russian economy looks more and more strained thanks to the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Hopefully the Flamingo cruise missiles will help to starve the bear further. My biggest concern is that Trump will try and sabotage it to help Putin.
FPT: When did the Attorney General intervene in a Civil Case?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
Robinson, Yaxley-Lennon or whatever he call himself seems to like going to prison. Is he courting martyrdom or what?
When he last went to prison, he crowdfunded lots of money for legal fees, and then pled guilty, thus ensuring minimal legal fees.
Isn't that obtaining money by false pretences? Punishable by jail time?
He owes ~£2 million to creditors and declared bankruptcy, including £160k to the taxman. He *claimed* he lost all his money gambling. Some think the bankruptcy is a ruse and he's hiding money. He was summoned to the High Court to answer questions about his finances, but didn't turn up and was fined for that. It's one of several ongoing legal troubles he faces, even after no prosecution was brought in the railway station assault case.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
So you would vote to deport migrants to the Taliban, for a DOGE system in local government to slash spending, for a party leader who said gay marriage should not have happened and who wants to scrap net zero completely and start fracking just to stop the Tories.
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
From deep in the back of my mind, I recall there is a longstanding one in Torquay:
I can report that Austria basically only takes cash
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
It is a while since I have been there, so much might have changed but 2 things we noticed was smoking inside and how much more popular cash was.
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
Smoking, fondness for cash, also aversion to air conditioning in hotels
Indoor smoking in bars and restaurants was something I noticed in Granada. It is illegal, and the ban is ignored.
Don't Paint One of Your Flags on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Boris was a social democrat compared to Farage who got a deal with the EU and was relaxed about immigration overall.
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
Boris' policy over immigration is why we're in trouble over it now.
It is the supreme irony that Boris might end up the most liberal and big spending elected PM we have had this century. Only Brown was more of a big government spender than Boris and he never won a general election and apart from EU immigration Boris was more open to immigrants even than Blair.
Though they hated him post Brexit and in 2019 I suspect most Labour and LD voters would now take Boris over Farage as PM in a heartbeat
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
If there were only Tory and Reform candidates in my patch, I might consider it
We already know the Tories are incompetent and self-serving. And voting for them is just a vote for returning to the two-party status quo, whereas at least Reform, whilst likely just as incompetent and self-serving as the Tories, at least offers the prospect of 'breaking' the system.
So you would vote to deport migrants to the Taliban, for a DOGE system in local government to slash spending, for a party leader who said gay marriage should not have happened and who wants to scrap net zero completely and start fracking just to stop the Tories.
Thanks for confirming
You don't half jump to some weird conclusions. The likelihood of @IanB2 voting Reform is surely minuscule; even lower than yours.
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
So much for the flaggers' respect for English heritage. It can be a sod of a job removing paint or chalk from brickwork or stone - especially porous stone. And inexpert attempts can do even more damage. Even paintwork doesn't necessarily come out as it was.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Boris was a social democrat compared to Farage who got a deal with the EU and was relaxed about immigration overall.
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
Boris' policy over immigration is why we're in trouble over it now.
It is the supreme irony that Boris might end up the most liberal and big spending elected PM we have had this century. Only Brown was more of a big government spender than Boris and he never won a general election and apart from EU immigration Boris was more open to immigrants even than Blair.
Though they hated him post Brexit and in 2019 I suspect most Labour and LD voters would now take Boris over Farage as PM in a heartbeat
A choice between Johnson and Farage is a choice between eating shit and drinking piss. I doubt LD voters would choose either.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
Don't Paint One of Your Flag on Our Church - Lincoln:
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“Ironically, the chief engineer of this beautiful Grade II* listed church was a Hungarian refugee. By all means, paint a cross on your home, but not on a public building.”
It's just gone on my list to visit. It's 1962, with stained glass by a chap who worked on Coventry Cathedral, and the roof is a HYPERBOLID PARABOLOID *. We don't have many outstanding modern church buildings around here - but there are some from that period.
I doubt it; that question is horribly leading and yet another tear in Yougov's increasingly tattered reputation.
Reform could (and perhaps will) respond with polling showing a big majority in favour of their policy due to an equally leading question, and therefore polls become weapons of propaganda rather than useful indicators of public sentiment.
...which is pretty much what happened in the USA.
RefUK really are using the tactics of their MAGA mates to the maximum possible, but it remains to be seen how for this works in a Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system. I think the best RefUK can do is gain enough seats to get a deadlock in the House of Commons, but actually taking power, especially with growing investigation of their policies and personnel seems like a very big ask indeed.
With Lab and Con both on around 18-20%, LD on 14-17% and a Jez n'mates party on 15%, the FPTP system pretty much guarantees a majority for Reform on even a low 30s result.
If the last 48 hours is anything to go by good luck with that low thirties. The Sultanas could be out in front by then.
A split left, with Sultana tendencies leading, will I suspect drive centrist voters towards the expected bulwark against them.
Tories and LDs for Reform; you heard it here first.
LDs and One Nation Tories would never vote Reform and the Sultana Corbyn party looks like getting less than ten percent anyway
People (and probably you!) said that about a Boris led party, and LDs and almost every One Nation Tory I know voted Tory when the risk was Jezza.
Boris was a social democrat compared to Farage who got a deal with the EU and was relaxed about immigration overall.
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
Boris' policy over immigration is why we're in trouble over it now.
It is the supreme irony that Boris might end up the most liberal and big spending elected PM we have had this century. Only Brown was more of a big government spender than Boris and he never won a general election and apart from EU immigration Boris was more open to immigrants even than Blair.
Though they hated him post Brexit and in 2019 I suspect most Labour and LD voters would now take Boris over Farage as PM in a heartbeat
Talk right, act left, and line your pockets, was Johnson's record.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
This potentially smacks of special pleading. Because it doesn't mention VAT.
VAT is liable on orders to the UK above a very low limit - about £16 if memory serves. Those are on value plus delivery costs. Not on whether they are small, large, microscopic or tiny in size. VAT exemptions apply e.g. books. (But last time I got a book from overseas the courier company's AI confused it with a computer game with the same keywords in the title and I got done.)
The collection of VAT by the delivery firm also triggers processing fees - e.g. £10 or £16 from RM. Which are disproportionate for small orders, and very discouraging. .
Import duty is also liable but IIRC the trigger value for that is a lot larger, more like £140 depending on what the item is.
'Small parcels shipped from China to the UK that aren't subject to import taxes more than doubled in value last year, as British businesses complain of unfair competition.
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
Comments
@sundersays.bsky.social
· 25m
The Conservatives beat Labour 58% to 24% in 2019 in South Norfolk - though > 50% voted for a centre-left party in 2024, with the Conservatives and Reform splitting 44%
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
@sundersays.bsky.social
Reform would probably fancy their chances here of trying to win this in a 3-way contest. Labour's chances of defending the seat would depend on being the progressive anti-populist candidate with first-time voters, Labour, LibDems, Greens, potentially some liberal/moderate ex-Tory voters
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
@sundersays.bsky.social
This is broadly the voice+ argument that LibDem MPs would be using to secure an anti-populist plurality in their 72 seats (v likely to succeed). It may be underestimated that Labour's marginal seats depends on maintaining a broad progressive + centre/moderate coalition across different geographies
https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lxh3ovq6xc2t
There are certainly some who would never vote for them; and some who would vote for them - or worse - every time. Then there are those who are Farage-curious, who might be tempted to vote for them, who like some of the policies but are wary of others.
Their capability to get out their vote will also be interesting.
My Facebook link was Agent Anderson backing up the Council Leader. It has a lot of likes and some dispute.
Anderson's post has quite a number of likes, but there will be a lot of drive-by support.
This summer however there has been a move from Labour to LD and Green while most of the Reform gains have come from the Tories
If true, I applaud this inventiveness.
As might have been expected, Reform’s much vaunted solutions to the problems of the “small boats” have turned out to have more holes than some might wish the aforementioned boats to possess.
If an Afghani arrives here illegally, the Reform plan would be for him (presumably) to be immediately arrested, sent to one of the “super camps” and deported back to Kabul.
If an Afghani arrives here legally and seeks asylum, he will be offered £2500 to drop his case and be deported and if his appeal is unsuccessful, he will also be deported and only if he gets granted approval to stay will he be released from the super camp and allowed into the general population.
We will return deported Afghanis, Eritreans, Sudanese etc whether we have return agreements with the prospective Governments and hope, in the traditional style of doing business, giving said Governments a large amount of cash will make things happen - it might.
The hope is or will be the sheer deterrence will be enough to stop those seeking to enter Britain illegally - it probably won’t. Given we are told France is in the cusp of societal and economic meltdown, I imagine we’ll see boatloads of French trying to come over as well.
I’m left with the thought the ECHR now is no longer fit for purpose for all its original intentions were noble and it worked well enough in the world of the Cold War. Simply walking away from it, however, is no more the answer than it was for our membership of the EU. Seeking to redefine an ECHR for the 21st Century would be much more positive and I’d like to see us lead on that working with other European countries rather than storming off in a huff when things don’t go our way.
My guess is that Con and Lab will recover a bit over the next four years as they sort themselves out.
LD and Green will benefit from more publicity in a GE, and Reform will suffer.
So my GB share guess for the next GE is Con 20%, Lab 20%, LD 18%, Grn 12%, Other 10%, Reform 20%
Lab and Ref neck and neck on about 175 seats each.
Con on 135, LD on 100, Grn on 20.
Well and truly hung.
SNP hold the balance of power.
Removal is also interesting- it will be an LHA responsibility, so Districts won't touch it.
@Foxy which anarchy symbol can a Red Cross be turned into?
It now has a Court Order to close it in 60 days.
Currently 300 people held there, cost to the state of Florida $245 million up to July. Both State and Federal Governments are in a sloping shoulders competition. So at least it's cheaper than Rwanda.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/27/us/alligator-alcatraz-closing
Then they put up prices at the local dump. In the name of the environment.
They even tried to run out of business a guy who goes round the neighbourhood and collects stuff to take to the dump/recycling for a fee. No one can understand this last one - he does a good job for a sensible price. Fills in for local builders who have less than a skip load. Apparently the council spent money on tracking him to find out if he was fly tipping, then tried to limit how much he was disposing of at the dump… weird.
Farage's side of politics has spent the last decade taking the piss out of his opponents for not being able to answer his style of messaging. Tying him to the Taliban is just sauce for the old gander, with a soupçon of truth in there somewhere.
If it's genuine domestic waste at a small scale then it's a grey area, but my council deals with plenty of commercial outfits trying to do the same so I can see why they are keeping an eye on him.
One of the fatal miscalculations that LD activists made in 2019 (your next PM Jo Swinson, anyone?) was assuming that their voters - particularly in the SW, were strong Remainers.
Scores of previously LD VIs that I canvassed came out strongly for May in 2017 and Boris in 2019......
Candidates can, sometimes at least, make a difference. I went to a hustings before the last elections; the Labour and LibDem candidates came across very badly, to me and several people I spoke to afterwards. The Reformer was good until he got onto immigration, when he lost me completely. I was somewhat tempted by the rather naive Independent.
The Conservative, as the sitting MP, appeared to think she was safe and didn't need to worry too much.
Kontaktless is not really a thing here. Yet
I think that’s great.
My Council gives me a free large item collection anyway. I think it's 3 items once a year.
My former council tried that, to try and stop fly-tipping. But, strangely, the type of people dumping their old mattresses in the street during the night turned out not to be the sort of people willing to phone the council, listen to the music for five minutes and then schedule an appointment at home when they would sit with their mattress and wait for the council van to call.
Never had to sit at home and wait, but when I owned flat we used to take it in turns to get stuff cleared when other residents hadn't been bothered to arrange a collection. Presumably the same people who'd leave their bin bag on the steps in the bin room rather than in the empty bin just past the full one.
I can list fa more things they haven't done
The real problem, most suspect, is that the council is trying to reduce waste disposal by fiat, without saying so.
@SkyNews
Putin, Xi, and Kim set to unite at major military parade
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1960997221874225415
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/28/weight-loss-drug-mounjaro-uk-price-rise-eli-lilly-pauses-shipments
More RefUK than ScoTory councillors in Glasgow now ...
Re your post last night on Austrian food, well there is a reason why we don't see many (if any) Austrian or German restaurants in the UK. There are two dishes however we loved, but I am guessing these are really skiing dishes because they contain absolutely no calories whatsoever, absolutely none - Kaiserschmarrn and Tiroler Grostli. I make them at home, but only if I have walked 10 miles or cycled 50.
No, if left-wing ideological voters want to punish the Labour Party then they will vote Green (or Nationalist, if one is available.) They might, at a stretch, think that the Lib Dems are pointless, but at least they are seen to be "sound" on Gaza, Trump, etc and a vote for them might get rid of another Tory. But this new Leftist concept has arrived too late in a crowded political marketplace, and their weaknesses (leadership, nomenclature, half-cocked launch etc) are already plain to see, long before the PR hatchet-men in ther Labour Party get to work on them.
So, ignore them - they are not relevant now, and will not be at the next General Election.
https://www.oldvienna.co.uk/
Maybe Farage understands what he needs to do to gain administrative knowledge.
“Farage welcomed his new MSP, adding he hoped Simpson would be able to "show us the ropes" after the election next year, in which Reform hopes to see a glut of MSPs elected.
Simpson will take on a key role in shaping the party's policy offering.
But the pair denied he would automatically be drafted in to lead the party ahead of May, with a decision still to be made on who will be put forward for leadership debates and other events.
Asked about the number of former Tories defecting to Reform, Farage said: "I'll absolutely not allow this to become the Tory party 2.0, and I'm not going to be the vehicle for those just to rescue their careers in parliament."
But referring to the number of Reform councillors who have quit the party or quit elected office since the English local elections in May, he added this showed "you need experience" as the better performing councils were ones where Reform councillors existed prior to this year.”
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,graham-simpson-msp-defects-from-conservatives-to-reform
My County Council have switched to a practice which delivers a link to a third party service which only preserves material for 30 days.
That will undermine WhatDoTheyKnow's role as a public archive with a million FOI request results in it.
My last one had 16 documents in a 25Mb zip file about a run of 5 public footpaths in it, so I have the context as to what their status is to make my request. I think that should be available publicly given that they have taken the time and money to compile the data.
"A formal application for a new reservoir in Fenland must be submitted by March 2027, according to regulators.
In a letter to Anglian Water and Cambridge Water, The Regulators' Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID) insisted the deadline was necessary in order to "maintain momentum"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9876ygg2weo
We've got children, probably all women, and of course anyone who helped the British army. At this rate they won't even need to leave the Refugee Convention.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/donald-trump-a-great-peacemaker-secret-letter-from-xi-jinping-helps-revive-india-china-ties-move-to-counter-us-tariff-war/articleshow/123559255.cms
It's actually a bit odd that Trump is throwing away the US-India relationship built up over recent decades because India refuses to stop buying oil from Russia. I think he got pissed off with Modi because Modi contradicted his claim to have stopped the fighting between India and Pakistan.
1 - Is this on behalf of the Party, or the Council?
2 - If the latter, can they do this legally? Could it be Judicially reviewed?
3 - What does the Council Constitution say about disseminating information
4 - Would the Monitoring Officer be interested?
(I expect that the way to answer 1-3 is to ask 4 !)
It's the usual problem of the council officers not having enough time to set up a permanent solution but overall spend more time dealing with requests than they would do otherwise.
The council are weird and very useless. They kicked Thames Tradesmen Rowing club out of their boathouse, demolished it and left the site empty. The council claimed that they wanted to make river usage more inclusive - the site has now been empty for years. No one uses it now. But a very expensive pedestrian footbridge was built. Leading to an empty building site.
What really happened there was the council got caught talking to property developers about the site and are now pretending… something.
Last I heard, the latest plan fell through because they couldn’t get anyone to believe they could charge a cafe a rent of £100k a year…
Anyone sane would have built a block of flats, half as council properties, with a boat club at the bottom. Been done tons of times on the Thames.
This is about True Labour
Greens are about 90% of what they want (currently). But purity is what they want. And the Greens are Spare Labour, not True Labour.
A small, eternally out of power, party of their own is perfection.
If Polanski wins, then it will certainly attract a lot of publicity, but not the sort which a rival political party would want if they are considering an electoral pact. Indeed, an electoral pact with the Greens might cause a number of rural small-c conservative types to go back to one of the larger political parties - voting Green to stop pylons is not the same as wanting to be aligned with an outfit that wants to nationalise the means of production, control and exchange.
Now it all makes perfect sense......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMDi42TiWbk
How will the electorate react to Polanski, if he's elected? Who knows! The electorate can be unpredictable. Without Your Party, I think a Polanski-led Green Party would lose some small-c conservatives but gain some radical left-wingers, so they'd lose Chowns' and Ramsay's seats but do better in the London Assembly and some local big city councils. However, with Your Party, I think there's a chance that a Polanski-led Green Party loses small-c conservatives *and* radical left-wingers. We see Green support decline. The more it declines, the more people jump ship. The centrist, rural Greens go to the LibDems, the watermelons go to Your Party. But maybe I'm entirely wrong and Polanski is a big hit, Your Party sinks without a trace...
My overall conclusion is that there could be some significant re-alignment on the left. Reform UK aren't the only psephological story in town.
Rewatch the kidnap scene from Life of Brian.
He's too old to run a GE surely?
Habib's claim seems to be that Lord Hermer "effectively put Tommy Robinson in jail." How did that happen?
https://youtu.be/lBjXimDjoYE?t=720
Starmer is also not Corbyn so in Labour held marginals such voters would be less worried about Labour winning
Thanks for confirming
A St George’s Cross crudely spray-painted on a church has been described by its reverend as ‘an attempt to intimidate’. The St John the Baptist Church in Lincoln’s Ermine was defaced on Monday night, along with nearby road markings.
Reverend Rachel Heskins says it is upsetting for a community which prides itself on being inclusive. “It doesn’t represent us and what goes on inside the church,” she told the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
“The St George’s Cross has become a symbol of nationalism, which has become confused with patriotism – the two are very different. It’s being used to intimidate; it’s not just about being proud about being English.
https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/lincoln-news/reverend-condemns-graffiti-lincoln-church-10453727
(There's a clear interview. To me a slight feeling of Sarah Pocchin's "urban dystopia" - "OH NO IT ISN'T!" episode.)
Though they hated him post Brexit and in 2019 I suspect most Labour and LD voters would now take Boris over Farage as PM in a heartbeat
These small packages rose in value from £1.3bn in 2023-24 to around £3bn in the latest financial year, exclusive data obtained by the BBC shows..The US has already ended its so-called "de minimis" exemption on imports of low-cost goods from China, but the policy will now be applied to the rest of the world from Friday.
The previous rule had allowed goods valued at $800 (£596) or less to enter the country without paying any tariffs.
The European Union also recently announced plans to charge a €2 flat fee on small packages worth €150 (£129) or less entering the bloc.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnv78eey8plo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_John_the_Baptist's_Church,_Ermine,_Lincoln
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t37SlUVM_28
Unfortunately, millions of voters saw though it.
VAT is liable on orders to the UK above a very low limit - about £16 if memory serves. Those are on value plus delivery costs. Not on whether they are small, large, microscopic or tiny in size. VAT exemptions apply e.g. books. (But last time I got a book from overseas the courier company's AI confused it with a computer game with the same keywords in the title and I got done.)
The collection of VAT by the delivery firm also triggers processing fees - e.g. £10 or £16 from RM. Which are disproportionate for small orders, and very discouraging. .
Import duty is also liable but IIRC the trigger value for that is a lot larger, more like £140 depending on what the item is.