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Should you be laying Robert Jenrick? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,634
edited August 19 in General
Should you be laying Robert Jenrick? – politicalbetting.com

As Tory Immigration Minister, Robert Jenrick wanted to get "even more" asylum hotels opened.You couldn’t trust them then. You can’t trust them now. pic.twitter.com/oCJDXk4TIc

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    Said the actress to the bishop
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,641
    edited August 19
    Second

    Jenrick supported the one in one out France scheme too.

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lwcljaf27c22
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,368
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4uivPpzCGo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,924
    That's a disgusting thought. I wouldn't lay Jenrick if the only alternative was Liz Truss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,924
    FPT:

    Donald Trump reminds me of the Marquis of Curzon. He was unkindly (but truthfully) called the Marquis of Cushion because 'he bore the imprint of whichever arse last sat on him.'

    If I were a Ukrainian I'd just be very glad he saw Putin first.

    (Jenrick is somewhat similar but with rather better hair.)
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    Maybe the knives will stay sheathed this time because they have run out of all alternatives to the incumbent. It does all have the feel of deck chairs on the titanic anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,354
    ydoethur said:

    That's a disgusting thought. I wouldn't lay Jenrick if the only alternative was Liz Truss.

    Yes, I'm still having my breakfast, and this is not an aid to digestion.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,279
    Tasteless headline of the month.

    Jenrick may have laid ... an egg.

    Good morning everyone.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,279
    edited August 19
    You've missed that Jenrick has Holocaust survivors in his family on his wife's side.

    I'm slightly moving him from the category of "enabler" to that of "useful idiot".

    Here he is in 2023 rebuking Braverman for her language around immigration (""invasion" of illegal migrants"):
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64316407

    I'm not sure if he himself has used the term:
    "Asked about the home secretary's comments, Mr Jenrick said: "I think in politics we all have to choose our language carefully and think of the historical language that has been used in the past when we frame arguments."


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,060
    How many of his target audience of Conservative members have already upped sticks and joined Nigel instead?

    Will the rump of Conservative members be a bit more like their 2010 membership than the 2020 membership perhaps?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    FPR
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,641
    On the other hand Jenrick looks like the only one who actually wants the job.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228
    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    MattW said:

    You've missed that Jenrick has holocaust survivors in his family on his wife's side.

    I'm slightly moving him from the category of "enabler" to that of "useful idiot".

    It’s just very poor screening by his team. The wider charge of painting him as a nazi because he thinks immigration has gone too far isn’t going to work. The Biden bandwagon tested that strategy to destruction last year. I suspect by the time of the next Uk election, all the main parties will instead be outcompeting each other on who is toughest. We are reaching the point where you simply won’t be able to win much more than a hundred and handful of seats unless you have credibility on this issue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,924
    Foxy said:

    On the other hand Jenrick looks like the only one who actually wants the job.

    That should disqualify him on its own.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    On topic, you know last week when I called out the idiocy of the Tory social media campaign? This was a prime example.

    Post after post after post by these wazzocks, performative preening "we will act" nonsense. With practically every response calling them out for having been the person responsible. Not surprised that both Labour and Reform have created "info"memes - the screenshot of an Independent article containing that Jenrick quote was circulated widely last week.

    What appears to have tipped it was his appearance in Epping. Outside The Bell hotel. Saying that Labour are responsible and he would shut it. That HE was very directly responsible - procuring that specific hotel - appears to be the breaking point.

    They very literally think voters are stupid. And whilst many of the most angry are low-information, they're not so stupid as to forget what happened.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228
    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,582
    Suella was on some anti immigration march in Porchester yesterday too. She and Jenrick seem to have all the answers. Why didn't Boris and Rishi give them the immigration briefs to resolve the problem years ago?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,876
    Two bald men fighting over a comb or two slugs mud wrestling..................there must be better ones
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,326
    edited August 19
    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,103
    Hmmm. Laying the favourite but when? I suspect the favourite on the eve of the announcement has won every Tory leadership election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,460
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    The U.K. version would be more like Argentina - endless overspending because of ratcheting political promises, combined with robbing Peter to pay Peter (yes, you read that right) to kinda keep the show on the road.

    This resulted in economic refugees from Argentina in *Peru*.

    Which upset Peruvian politicians - they had tried so very hard to get Peru the title of Worse Governed Country.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,436
    Good morning

    This is today's piece by Lord Ashcroft which is quite informative on the subject of Jemi Badenoch etc

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/08/this-is-what-happens-when-you-get-normal-people-like-us-and-no-one-listens-to-them-my-latest-focus-groups/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,647

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,108

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Isn't this an old one, though? Can people not change their minds when they see it doesn't work or the facts change?

    I remember Truss being attacked as a Remainer and Starmer as a Corbynite. And Blair once supported Michael Foot.

    Not sure it's a dealbreaker.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    What the flag shaggers appear to miss is that flying your flag in defiant hate of brown people isn't patriotism. Still, now they can fly it on their Reform footie shirt. Upside down and in false colours. Which drove 30p nuts when someone else did it, but now for some reason its fine...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,326
    edited August 19
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    She was a Home Office SPAD when the Online Safety Act was being introduced for example.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,791
    Oh how sad I was so looking forward to seeing Jenrick as the new Tory leader ! I’ll just have to pick up the pieces and go on with my life !
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    The U.K. version would be more like Argentina - endless overspending because of ratcheting political promises, combined with robbing Peter to pay Peter (yes, you read that right) to kinda keep the show on the road.

    This resulted in economic refugees from Argentina in *Peru*.

    Which upset Peruvian politicians - they had tried so very hard to get Peru the title of Worse Governed Country.
    A reasonable analysis

    I would add an even bleaker note. We don’t just face an economic crisis, looming not so far ahead, we face a cultural and sociopolitical crisis with regards to immigration, asylum, wokeness, militant Islam, and so on

    The pauperisation of the people will happen in concert with the spectacle of foreigners in Britain getting better treatment than Britons, and all the rest of it

    That is a recipe for civil strife, as Prof David Betz has noted. Let’s hope he’s wrong

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Isn't this an old one, though? Can people not change their minds when they see it doesn't work or the facts change?

    I remember Truss being attacked as a Remainer and Starmer as a Corbynite. And Blair once supported Michael Foot.

    Not sure it's a dealbreaker.
    It isn't - if they clearly say "I though x, the facts have changed and now I think y"

    It is a problem if you are a Jenrick and say "opening hotels is bad" whilst standing outside that hotel you opened.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,326
    edited August 19

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Isn't this an old one, though? Can people not change their minds when they see it doesn't work or the facts change?

    I remember Truss being attacked as a Remainer and Starmer as a Corbynite. And Blair once supported Michael Foot.

    Not sure it's a dealbreaker.
    It is when she doesn’t acknowledge her role in the issue.

    See Bobby J and the hotels as an example.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    Classics degree, six years grinding at goldmans and then a spad. Hmm… Xi will be quaking in his boots. Next!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,139
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    The problem is anyone with any association with what happened during the years in Government is going to be tainted by it. Last time, it took the election of David Cameron, who had only been a candidate in 1997 so not a serving MP in the Thatcher/Major years. to force the disconnection between the Conservatives who were and the Conservatives who are.

    Given so many MPs come through as Special Political Advisers, that means more association and a paper (or digital) trail of what they argued for and when they argued for it.

    As you can no longer change your mind in politics (it seems) without allegations of hypocrisy or "flip-flopping", it seems you carry the opinions you committed to paper or digital when you were a teenager through the rest of your life like the metaphorical millstone.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,791
    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Can I ask did you visit Lviv ? If you did is it as beautiful as everyone says ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228
    nico67 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Can I ask did you visit Lviv ? If you did is it as beautiful as everyone says ?
    Lviv is absolutely stunning. Krakow but nicer and without the tourists. Some bombs, however
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,647
    “The services sector is our most important economic asset, accounting for 80% of total UK output.  However, the latest research by London School of Economics (LSE) shows that services exports have declined by around 16% in the EU markets most affected by Brexit-related trade barriers. “

    https://bsky.app/profile/leedseurope.bsky.social/post/3lwq73b7jnk23
  • eekeek Posts: 30,976

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228

    What the flag shaggers appear to miss is that flying your flag in defiant hate of brown people isn't patriotism. Still, now they can fly it on their Reform footie shirt. Upside down and in false colours. Which drove 30p nuts when someone else did it, but now for some reason its fine...

    It’s the Ulsterisation of the UK. Each zone will be demarcated with flags, murals, painted kerbs

    At least we will get lovely big bonfires
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,361
    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Travelogues aren’t the same without a dog for scale. Could you please try and acquire a dog before tomorrow?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    The problem is anyone with any association with what happened during the years in Government is going to be tainted by it. Last time, it took the election of David Cameron, who had only been a candidate in 1997 so not a serving MP in the Thatcher/Major years. to force the disconnection between the Conservatives who were and the Conservatives who are.

    Given so many MPs come through as Special Political Advisers, that means more association and a paper (or digital) trail of what they argued for and when they argued for it.

    As you can no longer change your mind in politics (it seems) without allegations of hypocrisy or "flip-flopping", it seems you carry the opinions you committed to paper or digital when you were a teenager through the rest of your life like the metaphorical millstone.
    Quite probable that the next Tory PM (if there is one) is not yet in parliament.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,641
    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Przemysl was the Stalingrad of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the winter of 1914-15.

    An epic battle long forgotten in the West.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,441

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    Cheers

    I expected you’d have a rational take on it: 👍
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,568
    edited August 19
    nico67 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Can I ask did you visit Lviv ? If you did is it as beautiful as everyone says ?
    Not on this trip, went through the station in the midddle of the night, but we did go there a couple of years ago. Yes it’s an absolutely lovely place.

    When the war is over, the one thing that Ukraine would love to see more than anything is tourists spending their money there. I did here a rumour that they’re already making preparations to reopen the airport at Lviv, which will make a huge difference to tourist traffic. A good place for a long weekend, with very cheap food and drink.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743

    Good morning

    This is today's piece by Lord Ashcroft which is quite informative on the subject of Jemi Badenoch etc

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/08/this-is-what-happens-when-you-get-normal-people-like-us-and-no-one-listens-to-them-my-latest-focus-groups/

    An interesting read, thanks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,389
    nico67 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Can I ask did you visit Lviv ? If you did is it as beautiful as everyone says ?
    Przemysl?

    A key battle of WWI on Eastern Front.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,361

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Isn't this an old one, though? Can people not change their minds when they see it doesn't work or the facts change?

    I remember Truss being attacked as a Remainer and Starmer as a Corbynite. And Blair once supported Michael Foot.

    Not sure it's a dealbreaker.
    It isn't - if they clearly say "I though x, the facts have changed and now I think y"

    It is a problem if you are a Jenrick and say "opening hotels is bad" whilst standing outside that hotel you opened.
    A Tory party led by Jenrick would be even worse the Reform. C’mon Tories, you can do better than him!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,228
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Przemysl was the Stalingrad of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the winter of 1914-15.

    An epic battle long forgotten in the West.
    I was there on my first trip to Ukraine in 2023. Fascinating little city - with that epic wartime history

    Good beer, ok food, pretty girls, lots of foreign fighters and special forces preparing to go into Uke
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,131
    tlg86 said:

    Hmmm. Laying the favourite but when? I suspect the favourite on the eve of the announcement has won every Tory leadership election.

    As soon as possible after the new leader has been chosen.

    Eden might have been the favourite to replace Churchill in 1940, Boris to replace May in 2016, Sunak to replace Truss in 2022 but some successors must have been massive outsiders - Douglas-Home, Thatcher, Major, Hague, Howard.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,568
    Now I’m not in Ukraine, I have to say it was good to see so many British ‘tourists’ there, many of them having driven their trucks all the way. Must have seen a couple of dozen of them in various places. Best of luck to them in their ‘adventures’. ;)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,368
    tlg86 said:

    Hmmm. Laying the favourite but when? I suspect the favourite on the eve of the announcement has won every Tory leadership election.

    Eve of what announcement? That the contest is on, then no. Immediately before the declaration of the winner, then maybe,
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,441
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    The U.K. version would be more like Argentina - endless overspending because of ratcheting political promises, combined with robbing Peter to pay Peter (yes, you read that right) to kinda keep the show on the road.

    This resulted in economic refugees from Argentina in *Peru*.

    Which upset Peruvian politicians - they had tried so very hard to get Peru the title of Worse Governed Country.
    A reasonable analysis

    I would add an even bleaker note. We don’t just face an economic crisis, looming not so far ahead, we face a cultural and sociopolitical crisis with regards to immigration, asylum, wokeness, militant Islam, and so on

    The pauperisation of the people will happen in concert with the spectacle of foreigners in Britain getting better treatment than Britons, and all the rest of it

    That is a recipe for civil strife, as Prof David Betz has noted. Let’s hope he’s wrong

    Don’t worry we’re going to raise taxes even more to scrap the two child benefit cap as it’s what Gordon Brown and Neil Kinnick want

    Dig deep mugs
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,568

    Sandpit said:

    Well I managed to escape Ukraine intact! Greetings from a Polish train, at a border town called Przemysl (Shem-ash-el), heading for Krakow. Next part of the holiday adventure begins…

    Travelogues aren’t the same without a dog for scale. Could you please try and acquire a dog before tomorrow?
    I can try wife for scale!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,361
    Leon said:

    What the flag shaggers appear to miss is that flying your flag in defiant hate of brown people isn't patriotism. Still, now they can fly it on their Reform footie shirt. Upside down and in false colours. Which drove 30p nuts when someone else did it, but now for some reason its fine...

    It’s the Ulsterisation of the UK. Each zone will be demarcated with flags, murals, painted kerbs

    At least we will get lovely big bonfires
    Sadly, with brown people burning on top of them.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    Leon said:

    What the flag shaggers appear to miss is that flying your flag in defiant hate of brown people isn't patriotism. Still, now they can fly it on their Reform footie shirt. Upside down and in false colours. Which drove 30p nuts when someone else did it, but now for some reason its fine...

    It’s the Ulsterisation of the UK. Each zone will be demarcated with flags, murals, painted kerbs

    At least we will get lovely big bonfires
    I’m not sure what the morons in charge expect when they project the Pakistani flag onto public buildings.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,368
    Sandpit said:

    Now I’m not in Ukraine, I have to say it was good to see so many British ‘tourists’ there, many of them having driven their trucks all the way. Must have seen a couple of dozen of them in various places. Best of luck to them in their ‘adventures’. ;)

    Lots of cathedrals in Ukraine.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,976
    moonshine said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    The problem is anyone with any association with what happened during the years in Government is going to be tainted by it. Last time, it took the election of David Cameron, who had only been a candidate in 1997 so not a serving MP in the Thatcher/Major years. to force the disconnection between the Conservatives who were and the Conservatives who are.

    Given so many MPs come through as Special Political Advisers, that means more association and a paper (or digital) trail of what they argued for and when they argued for it.

    As you can no longer change your mind in politics (it seems) without allegations of hypocrisy or "flip-flopping", it seems you carry the opinions you committed to paper or digital when you were a teenager through the rest of your life like the metaphorical millstone.
    Quite probable that the next Tory PM (if there is one) is not yet in parliament.
    I’m keeping my view that Rishi is / was the last ever Tory PM
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    edited August 19
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    The problem is anyone with any association with what happened during the years in Government is going to be tainted by it. Last time, it took the election of David Cameron, who had only been a candidate in 1997 so not a serving MP in the Thatcher/Major years. to force the disconnection between the Conservatives who were and the Conservatives who are.

    Given so many MPs come through as Special Political Advisers, that means more association and a paper (or digital) trail of what they argued for and when they argued for it.

    As you can no longer change your mind in politics (it seems) without allegations of hypocrisy or "flip-flopping", it seems you carry the opinions you committed to paper or digital when you were a teenager through the rest of your life like the metaphorical millstone.
    Quite probable that the next Tory PM (if there is one) is not yet in parliament.
    I’m keeping my view that Rishi is / was the last ever Tory PM
    It depends if we get PR or not in a reasonable time frame. If we do, then I’m confident in saying that we will get another Tory PM. If we do not, then it’s entirely possible that not only is Sunak the last Tory PM but Starmer the last Labour one.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,801

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    But Starmer has made so many U-turns and betrayed so many of his once-inviolable principles that it's difficult to keep count.

    And he's leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister.

    Blair likewise and he won three general elections.

    Liz Truss, former Remainer LD became a tax-cutting Brexiteer Conservative PM.

    These days if you're shameless and above all lucky enough you can get away with more or less anything because the print media mostly just summarise press releases, most TV interviewers just allow interviewees to give prepared speeches whatever the question asked and social media feeds are basically just echo chambers.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
    Since when was competition a problem for anyone? When you are leading edge you gain massive share - but you always lose it as Tesla have. Competition floods the market - and note how many of these new competitors create clones of Tesla.

    So it's hardly a shock that more competition means Tesla sell less vehicles in the market squeeze where we have more choices than consumers. Same in any category, any market.

    So you go find the next leading edge. That has been range and ease of charging. It has been simplified cabins with Big Screens. It has been efficient design and construction so that you're not being held up by parts your supplier can't make.

    We are in the middle of the AI revolution - and Tesla own an AI company which is integrating into the cars. Which leads onto automated driving which cameras + AI make possible. Whilst I and others have been reassured* repeatedly that cameras are crap and it has to be RADAR/LIDAR lead, the competitive surge of development from China is predominantly camera.

    We don't understand this very well in the UK because we have Dumb Autopilot whose software goes through phases of being practically dangerous (as mine is now). But put in a software stack designed this decade and the advances are rapid, and with AI continuing to scale will advance exponentially.

    Tesla will be on the leading edge of this, and with the best will in the world many of the newer (and older) competitors won't. Until they catch up, and we go onto the New thing whatever that is.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,031
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    On not be able to go bust if you print your own currency. It rather depends what you mean. But if you have expended all your fx reserves and do not have a currency that is trustworthy, it does make it tricky to import anything. Such as food or energy. Or primary coloured plastic thingies from China.

    It’s a ridiculous argument and I sense @rcs1000 was making more of a technical than practical point

    Yes if you print your own currency you can theoretically never run out of it. But if you devalue it like the Zimbabwean dinar then you can’t buy any foreign stuff in your own currency, investors all flee, companies collapse, inflation goes apeshit and your entire country can basically implode even as you have a pocket full of trillion pound notes
    The U.K. version would be more like Argentina - endless overspending because of ratcheting political promises, combined with robbing Peter to pay Peter (yes, you read that right) to kinda keep the show on the road.

    This resulted in economic refugees from Argentina in *Peru*.

    Which upset Peruvian politicians - they had tried so very hard to get Peru the title of Worse Governed Country.
    A reasonable analysis

    I would add an even bleaker note. We don’t just face an economic crisis, looming not so far ahead, we face a cultural and sociopolitical crisis with regards to immigration, asylum, wokeness, militant Islam, and so on

    The pauperisation of the people will happen in concert with the spectacle of foreigners in Britain getting better treatment than Britons, and all the rest of it

    That is a recipe for civil strife, as Prof David Betz has noted. Let’s hope he’s wrong

    Don’t worry we’re going to raise taxes even more to scrap the two child benefit cap as it’s what Gordon Brown and Neil Kinnick want

    Dig deep mugs
    Depressingly, 20th Argentina is definitely the astute comparator for 21st century Britain. Hopefully we at least get a couple of World Cup wins amidst the decline.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,744
    Leon said:

    What the flag shaggers appear to miss is that flying your flag in defiant hate of brown people isn't patriotism. Still, now they can fly it on their Reform footie shirt. Upside down and in false colours. Which drove 30p nuts when someone else did it, but now for some reason its fine...

    It’s the Ulsterisation of the UK. Each zone will be demarcated with flags, murals, painted kerbs

    At least we will get lovely big bonfires
    Does that mean there will be a thriving, confident country independent of the UK as part of the landmass? Fingers crossed!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,279
    edited August 19

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    I'll cut our hero some slack. He's correct that there may be things still to play out - I did not check whether there is a relation to run out stock for example. After all, they haven't been selling as many so there may still be some left :wink: .

    I enjoy the channel from time to time, and every time I see him doing the window cleaner ident and going "oooo", I'm reminded of Typhoo ads from the 1980s - "Oooo makes a loverly cuppa?" *

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnb1iLRQTfo

    My blurred piccie:


    *Sponsorship ooooportunity.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,459
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    The problem is anyone with any association with what happened during the years in Government is going to be tainted by it. Last time, it took the election of David Cameron, who had only been a candidate in 1997 so not a serving MP in the Thatcher/Major years. to force the disconnection between the Conservatives who were and the Conservatives who are.

    Given so many MPs come through as Special Political Advisers, that means more association and a paper (or digital) trail of what they argued for and when they argued for it.

    As you can no longer change your mind in politics (it seems) without allegations of hypocrisy or "flip-flopping", it seems you carry the opinions you committed to paper or digital when you were a teenager through the rest of your life like the metaphorical millstone.
    Though Dave had been Storming Norman Lamont's SPAD on Black Wednesday. That didn't really get traction, though. I suspect that the Internet Never Forgetting, plus the madness of the harder right makes it a bit different now.

    Meanwhile, here's an interesting perspective on why "these are shells of former 4* hotels now fitted out as doss houses" doesn't get traction;

    I think a better way of expressing the "asylum seekers shouldn't get free holidays" is an old story from Northern Ireland. At the beginning of Direct Rule the Northern Ireland Office commandeered much of a key hotel to put civil servants and securocrats. This created issues with local Unionists..

    Because this hotel had been a cherished civic institution where people would hold key events or go on important holidays. And it was hurtful to see the government treat it as something lesser than that. I highly doubt anyone actually thinks asylum seekers are getting a free holiday...


    https://bsky.app/profile/willcooling.bsky.social/post/3lwpelq6l3c2d

    Saying "your local landmark isn't worth anything" is pretty hurtful in itself. Even, perhaps especially, when it's true. Like those bits on Antiques Roadshow where the punter is told that their precious antique is a cheap copy.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,139

    Good morning

    This is today's piece by Lord Ashcroft which is quite informative on the subject of Jemi Badenoch etc

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/08/this-is-what-happens-when-you-get-normal-people-like-us-and-no-one-listens-to-them-my-latest-focus-groups/

    To be honest, all pretty predictable stuff.

    Long on complaints and whingeing, short on offering solutions - at least solutions which would be legal and cost effective at any rate. I'd love to see people in thiese groups given the challenge of coming up with some answers.

    Governing is difficult - always has been - but the ordure reserved for professional politicians is something else.

    I'd like to see anyone from those focus groups run the country for a week let alone a month. We go on about wanting "people who've done a day's work" in Government but as we've seen, business people make bad politicians, army officers don't always do that well.

    It's a really tough job trying to balance all the sectional interests - you end up either doing nothing and everyone complains or you do something and everyone complains.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,103

    tlg86 said:

    Hmmm. Laying the favourite but when? I suspect the favourite on the eve of the announcement has won every Tory leadership election.

    Eve of what announcement? That the contest is on, then no. Immediately before the declaration of the winner, then maybe,
    The declaration.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,976
    edited August 19

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
    Since when was competition a problem for anyone? When you are leading edge you gain massive share - but you always lose it as Tesla have. Competition floods the market - and note how many of these new competitors create clones of Tesla.

    So it's hardly a shock that more competition means Tesla sell less vehicles in the market squeeze where we have more choices than consumers. Same in any category, any market.

    So you go find the next leading edge. That has been range and ease of charging. It has been simplified cabins with Big Screens. It has been efficient design and construction so that you're not being held up by parts your supplier can't make.

    We are in the middle of the AI revolution - and Tesla own an AI company which is integrating into the cars. Which leads onto automated driving which cameras + AI make possible. Whilst I and others have been reassured* repeatedly that cameras are crap and it has to be RADAR/LIDAR lead, the competitive surge of development from China is predominantly camera.

    We don't understand this very well in the UK because we have Dumb Autopilot whose software goes through phases of being practically dangerous (as mine is now). But put in a software stack designed this decade and the advances are rapid, and with AI continuing to scale will advance exponentially.

    Tesla will be on the leading edge of this, and with the best will in the world many of the newer (and older) competitors won't. Until they catch up, and we go onto the New thing whatever that is.
    I can’t currently trust an AI to accurately read and summarise multiple legal documents without hallucinating - now I know my opinion of AI may be different to yours but you can’t throw an LLM at driving a car yet that is what Tesla is trying to do

    Also I will believe Tesla have got there when they remove the human part of their robotic taxi service
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,851
    Farage is quite right. Jenrick is a self-serving phony. If I was an anti-immigrant voter I'd go for the real thing, Farage and Reform.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,924
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
    TBF to Elon Musk* quite a lot of his competitors have fascist overtones as well. VW and its associated group, any Chinese car...

    *I feel dirty for even saying that, but we shouldn't be unfair to that fat old Fascist creep when by being fair we can still slag him off day and night.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,647
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,460
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Isn't this an old one, though? Can people not change their minds when they see it doesn't work or the facts change?

    I remember Truss being attacked as a Remainer and Starmer as a Corbynite. And Blair once supported Michael Foot.

    Not sure it's a dealbreaker.
    It isn't - if they clearly say "I though x, the facts have changed and now I think y"

    It is a problem if you are a Jenrick and say "opening hotels is bad" whilst standing outside that hotel you opened.
    Worth saying that Jennifer Williams (northern correspondent on the FT) was discussing migrant hotels last night. The issue in many towns was while ancient now 20-40 years ago these were the place the significant events in any family’s lifes (weddings) were held.

    So they hold a local cultural memory of how the town used to be and how different / worse it has become
    Or even current memories. When they first started using them, I pointed out that the facilities at such hotels are often local amenities - the gym is the local gym, the pool is the one used by the local school etc.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    stodge said:

    Good morning

    This is today's piece by Lord Ashcroft which is quite informative on the subject of Jemi Badenoch etc

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/08/this-is-what-happens-when-you-get-normal-people-like-us-and-no-one-listens-to-them-my-latest-focus-groups/

    To be honest, all pretty predictable stuff.

    Long on complaints and whingeing, short on offering solutions - at least solutions which would be legal and cost effective at any rate. I'd love to see people in thiese groups given the challenge of coming up with some answers.

    Governing is difficult - always has been - but the ordure reserved for professional politicians is something else.

    I'd like to see anyone from those focus groups run the country for a week let alone a month. We go on about wanting "people who've done a day's work" in Government but as we've seen, business people make bad politicians, army officers don't always do that well.

    It's a really tough job trying to balance all the sectional interests - you end up either doing nothing and everyone complains or you do something and everyone complains.
    I was interested in some of the recognition of the big picture - taxes at record levels but where is the money going" etc. But it really highlighted the low-information misinformation being circulated to manipulate people. "they get phones and money" - nope. "In England they're looked after too well compared to other countries" - nope.

    For me I think the path is highlight the Big Picture with detail examples. But pull it back to macro economics and structure. Can't get a GP appointment because the NHS structure is a bonfire burning your money etc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,389
    BBC forecast for my neck of the woods: zero % chance of rain.

    Met Office: cloudy with only 10% change light rain.

    It is now pissing down.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,581

    BBC forecast for my neck of the woods: zero % chance of rain.

    Met Office: cloudy with only 10% change light rain.

    It is now pissing down.

    Perhaps the old saying of: "weather is not climate" should be appended with " .... and forecasting is not weather."
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,762
    kinabalu said:

    Farage is quite right. Jenrick is a self-serving phony. If I was an anti-immigrant voter I'd go for the real thing, Farage and Reform.

    The tory platform of the Fukkers are right about everything but vote for us instead because reasons is bollocks.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,387
    Scott_xP said:
    Delulu?

    "You're never a dull person at a party when you own a bus."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,743
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
    Since when was competition a problem for anyone? When you are leading edge you gain massive share - but you always lose it as Tesla have. Competition floods the market - and note how many of these new competitors create clones of Tesla.

    So it's hardly a shock that more competition means Tesla sell less vehicles in the market squeeze where we have more choices than consumers. Same in any category, any market.

    So you go find the next leading edge. That has been range and ease of charging. It has been simplified cabins with Big Screens. It has been efficient design and construction so that you're not being held up by parts your supplier can't make.

    We are in the middle of the AI revolution - and Tesla own an AI company which is integrating into the cars. Which leads onto automated driving which cameras + AI make possible. Whilst I and others have been reassured* repeatedly that cameras are crap and it has to be RADAR/LIDAR lead, the competitive surge of development from China is predominantly camera.

    We don't understand this very well in the UK because we have Dumb Autopilot whose software goes through phases of being practically dangerous (as mine is now). But put in a software stack designed this decade and the advances are rapid, and with AI continuing to scale will advance exponentially.

    Tesla will be on the leading edge of this, and with the best will in the world many of the newer (and older) competitors won't. Until they catch up, and we go onto the New thing whatever that is.
    I can’t currently trust an AI to accurately read and summarise multiple legal documents without hallucinating - now I know my opinion of AI may be different to yours but you can’t throw an LLM at driving a car yet that is what Tesla is trying to do

    Also I will believe Tesla have got there when they remove the human part of their robotic taxi service
    I am a massive skeptic - again I am saying so repeatedly on videos slagging off Dumb Autopilot. But you're not even considering today's AI - most of what most of us are using is already out of date and they are learning at exponential growth rates.

    On the human safety monitors I know that its a weapon to beat them with. Some speculation in Austin about what the passenger seat guy is doing with the open door button they hold. And in California the state mandates a person behind the wheel. Again holding the button not actually driving.

    Autonomous cars will kill people and there will be uproar. Then again, human driven cars kill an awful lot more people and we're all used to the carnage. I think the uproar phase won't be very long. And once one major economy licenses it and shows its safe the rest will have to follow because you can't hold back the technological tide for long...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,876
    edited August 19
    In truth this stuff doesn't matter at all. It excites activists in that iit gives them something to talk about but voters see things in much broader brushstrokes. Farage and Jenrick are full send racists as are Braverman and Patel. Who did the cleanest Nazi salute doesn't matter a damn to the average voter.

    ......What might be concerning though for the Tories is that Reform's literature has a classier look and it's possible they have manipulated the Jenrick mugshot. He looks a bit tampered with
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,110
    I see Rachel from Accounts is doing everything possible to make sure home owners don't vote Labour at the next election.
    Her and her Party's hideous policies hopefully will screw Labour for generations.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,419
    edited August 19
    Morning all.
    'Theres a paper trail' is such a load of nonsense. Boris Johnson was a remainer ffs. Not predicting Katie Lam gets the gig ever but what she said as a SPAD is so irrelevant to her chances. Look at what anyone on todays cabinet has said versus are saying.
    As for Jenrick, those who want to use a photo of Bobbins adjacent to someone to demonise him is of course also demonising everyone who attended the protest. Which would be politically 'brave' regardless of what they might think of protests and protectors on this issue
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,924
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
    Since when was competition a problem for anyone? When you are leading edge you gain massive share - but you always lose it as Tesla have. Competition floods the market - and note how many of these new competitors create clones of Tesla.

    So it's hardly a shock that more competition means Tesla sell less vehicles in the market squeeze where we have more choices than consumers. Same in any category, any market.

    So you go find the next leading edge. That has been range and ease of charging. It has been simplified cabins with Big Screens. It has been efficient design and construction so that you're not being held up by parts your supplier can't make.

    We are in the middle of the AI revolution - and Tesla own an AI company which is integrating into the cars. Which leads onto automated driving which cameras + AI make possible. Whilst I and others have been reassured* repeatedly that cameras are crap and it has to be RADAR/LIDAR lead, the competitive surge of development from China is predominantly camera.

    We don't understand this very well in the UK because we have Dumb Autopilot whose software goes through phases of being practically dangerous (as mine is now). But put in a software stack designed this decade and the advances are rapid, and with AI continuing to scale will advance exponentially.

    Tesla will be on the leading edge of this, and with the best will in the world many of the newer (and older) competitors won't. Until they catch up, and we go onto the New thing whatever that is.
    I can’t currently trust an AI to accurately read and summarise multiple legal documents without hallucinating - now I know my opinion of AI may be different to yours but you can’t throw an LLM at driving a car yet that is what Tesla is trying to do

    Also I will believe Tesla have got there when they remove the human part of their robotic taxi service
    So currently AI is at the approximate intellectual level of an average judge?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,250
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    Classics degree, six years grinding at goldmans and then a spad. Hmm… Xi will be quaking in his boots. Next!
    Xi can relax. The Weald of Kent goes Reform in 2029, if I have the maths right, on a 10 point swing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,419
    edited August 19
    algarkirk said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is suboptimal for Jenrick. On the other hand he is the only Tory who seems to understand social media - in the same way as Farage

    He would be a risk but dying men clutch at risky straws

    One alternative is Katie Lam. Telegenic. Firmly right wing. Articulate. And - crucially - so young she has no unhelpful backstory. But also so young she could just be another Badenoch

    I had lunch with somebody last week who told me Katie Lam's backstory will stop her becoming leader or getting any traction.

    She was a Home Office SPAD (and other jobs) during the last Parliament, she was in favour of a lot of the policies she is now criticising. There's a paper trail.
    Interesting and depressing for the Tories

    She’s the only one of the new intake that seems - seemed - to have potential

    Maybe they are totally screwed. Oh well. lol
    Classics degree, six years grinding at goldmans and then a spad. Hmm… Xi will be quaking in his boots. Next!
    Xi can relax. The Weald of Kent goes Reform in 2029, if I have the maths right, on a 10 point swing.
    Its a marginal on current polling, 9.9% swing required, but Tories are defending a higher % than in many of their current seats (39.8%).
    Tory hold on a national 20% plus would be my guess, Ref gain below that
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,326
    Looks like they are following Revolut’s lead.

    Monzo is planning to launch a UK mobile phone service in a move that will intensify competitive pressure on incumbents including VodafoneThree and BT-owned operator EE.

    The London-based digital bank is exploring launching its own digital sim and offering monthly contracts, according to people familiar with the matter, which would diversify its revenues away from its core banking services.

    Monzo confirmed it was in the “early stages” of developing its proposals.

    “When we heard from our customers that mobile contracts can be a pain point, we set out to explore how we could do this the Monzo way,” it said.

    Monzo, which has 13mn UK customers, is the third fintech to turn to the mobile sector in search of a new revenue stream. Revolut and Klarna, which each have about 11mn UK customers, have also announced plans this year to offer mobile phone services in Britain and abroad.

    Meanwhile, Octopus, the multibillion-pound fund that owns the eponymous energy company, is exploring an offering via a subsidiary, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The moves threaten to intensify competition for incumbents EE, Virgin Media O2 and the newly merged VodafoneThree.

    Monzo is likely to enter the market as a mobile virtual network operator, which serves customers without building its own underlying infrastructure. MVNOs piggyback on the networks of major telecoms groups and typically then undercut them on price.


    https://www.ft.com/content/1c6ce97e-f358-4249-b264-67c71b764164
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,162
    edited August 19
    Why was Jenrick boasting about opening new hotels every month? Because people did not want potentially illegal immigrants wandering the streets or cluttering the doorways of their shops, I suppose. So he found the solution to one problem, more secure accommodation, by creating another.

    The absolute failure, however, for which he bore at least some responsibility (no doubt the Treasury and resources did too) was the grinding to a halt of our immigration assessment system, whether in original determinations, dealing with appeals, actually implementing the decisions made and getting people back on planes where they came from. The only success I can think of from the last government in this area was the deal with Albania. It should have been a model, not unique.

    The current government has made modest progress in dealing with appeals and deportations but it is a pale shadow of what is needed. In my view the only realistic approach is an amnesty for most of those who have not been removed in 10 years or more and try to focus resources on the new arrivals/overstayers etc.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,139

    Morning all.
    'Theres a paper trail' is such a load of nonsense. Boris Johnson was a remainer ffs. Not predicting Katie Lam gets the gig ever but what she said as a SPAD is so irrelevant to her chances. Look at what anyone on todays cabinet has said versus are saying.
    As for Jenrick, those who want to use a photo of Bobbins adjacent to someone to demonise him is of course also demonising everyone who attended the protest. Which would be politically 'brave' regardless of what they might think of protests and protectors on this issue

    Boris won in the summer of 2019 because a ComRes poll showed he was the only candidate among those standing to succeed Theresa May who could bring in sufficient votes from the (then) Brexit Party to enable a Conservative majority.

    That was because he was te only clear "leaver" in a pack of "remain" candidates and for a party which was broadly in support of the UK leaving the EU that was enough.

    In the heat of a leadership campaign, what you said can and often is used by your opponents - always has been. If there are things you argued for once but now reject, you need to have a response ready when that is pointed out. It's not wrong to point out the inconsistency - the problem is to a) try to deny it and b) not be prepared when it is pointed out.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,622
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPR

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Tesla.

    Sales down 60% in the UK in July YOY. Those proved more resilient than elsewhere in Europe.
    Leases offered at 40% discount via third parties.
    And USA legal actions working through slowly.

    That's a Model Y from around £400+ a month, and a Model 3 for £300+ per month. Those numbers look attractive compared to some comparisons.

    No, I'm not predicting anything.

    https://www.autoblog.com/news/tesla-slashes-uk-lease-prices-after-sales-collapse-could-the-us-be-next

    I know he’s not round much now but our resident Tesla expert, @RochdalePioneers, IIRC, said a while back low Tesla sales are partly due to a model change with a new model due soon.
    Morning! Its absolutely true that comparing off sale vs on sale in not like for like - which is what much of the media was doing. It's true that sales resumptions do not make for smooth sales numbers - you get an early adopter spike then in drops then it settles.

    We're in the post-sale drop. Need to see the rest of the quarter to see how the settle looks.

    But sales are down. And were going to be down. I've been commenting on video about it *before the old car went off sale* earlier this year. Was scorned by the usual fanbois for saying Model Y wouldn't be the best selling car in the world this year.

    The month on month comparisons for most of this year haven't been LFL. They are valid, but they tell a false story. Handy if you are pushing that false story, less handy if you are interested in reality. I've spent too many decades reporting on sales performance to waste my time trying to defend half-truths and distorted non-LFL comparisons. Because you have to make something up to explain the false narrative and then get stuck with it once it pans out...
    That's a lot of words for 'Tesla are fked'
    That isn't what I said. If you want to cling to the non-LFL analysis then be my guest. Doesn't make it factual or actual, but hey.
    Tesla’s problem is that there are now a lot of good EV options without facist undertones
    Since when was competition a problem for anyone? When you are leading edge you gain massive share - but you always lose it as Tesla have. Competition floods the market - and note how many of these new competitors create clones of Tesla.

    So it's hardly a shock that more competition means Tesla sell less vehicles in the market squeeze where we have more choices than consumers. Same in any category, any market.

    So you go find the next leading edge. That has been range and ease of charging. It has been simplified cabins with Big Screens. It has been efficient design and construction so that you're not being held up by parts your supplier can't make.

    We are in the middle of the AI revolution - and Tesla own an AI company which is integrating into the cars. Which leads onto automated driving which cameras + AI make possible. Whilst I and others have been reassured* repeatedly that cameras are crap and it has to be RADAR/LIDAR lead, the competitive surge of development from China is predominantly camera.

    We don't understand this very well in the UK because we have Dumb Autopilot whose software goes through phases of being practically dangerous (as mine is now). But put in a software stack designed this decade and the advances are rapid, and with AI continuing to scale will advance exponentially.

    Tesla will be on the leading edge of this, and with the best will in the world many of the newer (and older) competitors won't. Until they catch up, and we go onto the New thing whatever that is.
    I can’t currently trust an AI to accurately read and summarise multiple legal documents without hallucinating - now I know my opinion of AI may be different to yours but you can’t throw an LLM at driving a car yet that is what Tesla is trying to do

    Also I will believe Tesla have got there when they remove the human part of their robotic taxi service
    So currently AI is at the approximate intellectual level of an average judge?
    Approximate Intellect.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,568

    Looks like they are following Revolut’s lead.

    Monzo is planning to launch a UK mobile phone service in a move that will intensify competitive pressure on incumbents including VodafoneThree and BT-owned operator EE.

    The London-based digital bank is exploring launching its own digital sim and offering monthly contracts, according to people familiar with the matter, which would diversify its revenues away from its core banking services.

    Monzo confirmed it was in the “early stages” of developing its proposals.

    “When we heard from our customers that mobile contracts can be a pain point, we set out to explore how we could do this the Monzo way,” it said.

    Monzo, which has 13mn UK customers, is the third fintech to turn to the mobile sector in search of a new revenue stream. Revolut and Klarna, which each have about 11mn UK customers, have also announced plans this year to offer mobile phone services in Britain and abroad.

    Meanwhile, Octopus, the multibillion-pound fund that owns the eponymous energy company, is exploring an offering via a subsidiary, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The moves threaten to intensify competition for incumbents EE, Virgin Media O2 and the newly merged VodafoneThree.

    Monzo is likely to enter the market as a mobile virtual network operator, which serves customers without building its own underlying infrastructure. MVNOs piggyback on the networks of major telecoms groups and typically then undercut them on price.


    https://www.ft.com/content/1c6ce97e-f358-4249-b264-67c71b764164

    That’s the same Monzo that just got fined £20m for KYC failures?

    https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/final-notices/monzo-bank-limited.pdf

    Well at least they’ll now have some of their banking customers’ phone numbers.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,387

    I see Rachel from Accounts is doing everything possible to make sure home owners don't vote Labour at the next election.
    Her and her Party's hideous policies hopefully will screw Labour for generations.

    If you are trying to raise funds without going to the market, you need to tax those with assets - homeowners and savers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,622
    Battlebus said:

    I see Rachel from Accounts is doing everything possible to make sure home owners don't vote Labour at the next election.
    Her and her Party's hideous policies hopefully will screw Labour for generations.

    If you are trying to raise funds without going to the market, you need to tax those with assets - homeowners and savers.
    Theft in other words.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,845

    Good morning

    This is today's piece by Lord Ashcroft which is quite informative on the subject of Jemi Badenoch etc

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/08/this-is-what-happens-when-you-get-normal-people-like-us-and-no-one-listens-to-them-my-latest-focus-groups/

    Many said the only thing that was improving in Britain was the weather. And they're trying to reverse that!

    Good morning, everybody.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,924
    Battlebus said:

    I see Rachel from Accounts is doing everything possible to make sure home owners don't vote Labour at the next election.
    Her and her Party's hideous policies hopefully will screw Labour for generations.

    If you are trying to raise funds without going to the market, you need to tax those with assets - homeowners and savers.
    If she taxes second homes, btl etc she will probably get away with it.

    If she tries touching people's main homes, she will be committing political suicide on a scale not seen since 1945.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,139

    I see Rachel from Accounts is doing everything possible to make sure home owners don't vote Labour at the next election.
    Her and her Party's hideous policies hopefully will screw Labour for generations.

    Yet the current property taxation system is riddled with inconsistencies. There are people in £8m mansions who pay less than people in £400k semis in other areas.

    There needs to be a local element to property taxation (unless the LVT type tax is going to be used to fund social care at a national level). As an example, if I am charged 0.5% of the value of my East London desres, I reckon I'd be about where I am now with Newham's Council Tax so I'm fairly agnostic about it financialy.

    So much will depend on where they pitch the valuations of property and how the valuations will be carried out (nice money for some valuers somewhere). If all this can lead to the replacement of Stamp Duty and Council Tax with a single Property Tax, why not?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,279
    moonshine said:

    MattW said:

    You've missed that Jenrick has holocaust survivors in his family on his wife's side.

    I'm slightly moving him from the category of "enabler" to that of "useful idiot".

    It’s just very poor screening by his team. The wider charge of painting him as a nazi because he thinks immigration has gone too far isn’t going to work. The Biden bandwagon tested that strategy to destruction last year. I suspect by the time of the next Uk election, all the main parties will instead be outcompeting each other on who is toughest. We are reaching the point where you simply won’t be able to win much more than a hundred and handful of seats unless you have credibility on this issue.
    Two questions:

    1 - I agree on the poor screening, but he should know that himself. There was an entire zoo of extremist groups whose associates were at Epping Forest, starting with the Homeland Party whose guy was on a truck making a speech - and has had media coverage. Jenrick himself should know that, never mind his team.

    2 - Who has been painting Jenrick as a nazi, or using the actual word?

    That's not one I've seen, and given that his wife is Jewish, it would be as crass (and as ineffective) a charge as the same being said about Zelensky. Any serious group would not do it, though I could perhaps see some of the types who call Starmer a "Tory" throwing it around.

    I've seen nazi used by GB News presenters / guests who are using a straw man to try and deflect. It goes:

    "They are calling us far right",
    "Are we Nazis?".
    Followed by 5-10 minutes about extremist and ignorant "The Left" or "The Far Left" are and how GB News and friends are not Nazis.

    The only one I've seen in serious circles wrt Jenrick is "xenophobe", or perhaps "this is xenophobia" (fear of the foreign) from Thought for the Day last week. Jenrick's response was to allege that they had called him a racist, which was untrue, and to demand an apology.

    I'm completely relaxed calling Jenrick a xenophobe; it is what he presents himself as and is the dominant note in his politics. I'd say it in public and to his face, with examples.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,459
    DavidL said:

    Why was Jenrick boasting about opening new hotels every month? Because people did not want potentially illegal immigrants wandering the streets or cluttering the doorways of their shops, I suppose. So he found the solution to one problem, more secure accommodation, by creating another.

    The absolute failure, however, for which he bore at least some responsibility (no doubt the Treasury and resources did too) was the grinding to a halt of our immigration assessment system, whether in original determinations, dealing with appeals, actually implementing the decisions made and getting people back on planes where they came from. The only success I can think of from the last government in this area was the deal with Albania. It should have been a model, not unique.

    The current government has made modest progress in dealing with appeals and deportations but it is a pale shadow of what is needed. In my view the only realistic approach is an amnesty for most of those who have not been removed in 10 years or more and try to focus resources on the new arrivals/overstayers etc.

    Isn't the bigger problem that many-to-most asylum applicants turn out to have a perfectly valid case under the established rules and the last government was terrified of acknowledging that? Hence keeping people in limbo, until they could be magicked away to Africa.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,250
    stodge said:

    Good morning

    This is today's piece by Lord Ashcroft which is quite informative on the subject of Jemi Badenoch etc

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/08/this-is-what-happens-when-you-get-normal-people-like-us-and-no-one-listens-to-them-my-latest-focus-groups/

    To be honest, all pretty predictable stuff.

    Long on complaints and whingeing, short on offering solutions - at least solutions which would be legal and cost effective at any rate. I'd love to see people in thiese groups given the challenge of coming up with some answers.

    Governing is difficult - always has been - but the ordure reserved for professional politicians is something else.

    I'd like to see anyone from those focus groups run the country for a week let alone a month. We go on about wanting "people who've done a day's work" in Government but as we've seen, business people make bad politicians, army officers don't always do that well.

    It's a really tough job trying to balance all the sectional interests - you end up either doing nothing and everyone complains or you do something and everyone complains.
    This is fair up to a point, but not entirely. Politics and governing is a career choice and it is very difficult. A majority government undertakes to do really well everything that government has taken to itself to do. To this end it has in practice unfettered power to fund itself through taxation, and the entire resource of the state to get things done, and an unfettered supply of expertise it can call on to help.

    It is a reasonable expectation that government will be truthful, honest, very competent at running all the things it has decided to run, very good at delivering its promises and very good at communicating with the public.

    I think government, including this one, could do better in meeting these expectations. The expectation I describe is a reasonable one.
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