Flipping Texas and Florida? – politicalbetting.com
Flipping Texas and Florida? – politicalbetting.com
It took Biden far longer than just 8 months to reach numbers like this and he never recovered. The biggest shock in this poll: Trump’s approval among Latinos is -43%. That’s nightmare territory for Republicans who thought their 2024 gains with Latino voters were locked in. https://t.co/Z8jEzZox2w
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Good morning.
Mexican Hispanics in Texas are different to Cuban Hispanics in Florida and Puerto Rican Hispanics in New York.
.. oh fudge.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx
...Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.
These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups...
Having said this, I got lured into watching a video yesterday when people in the street were being asked if a die was rolled 420 times how many 3s would you expect? The people getting it wrong included a teacher, allegedly. Innumeracy rules, apparently.
They also suggest that attempts by the MAGA loons to gerrymander and rig the elections will fail.
Certainly have to admire their optimism, but if the US is still a functioning democracy at the end of 2026, then they could well be right.
It might be their last chance.
What do people think the federal law enforcement in Washington DC is about? It's about enforcement in the non democratic future when the door closes and realisation dawns.
On why they were falling out with him, he hold me it's exactly as you'd expect - people don't like having their neighbourhoods raided by masked government thugs and their friends and relatives held and deported. The softening economy, the counter-productive trade policy and the trashing of America's diplomatic position worldwide are minor matters compared to that for his friends and relatives anyway.
Too many 'educated' people seem to be proud of their lack of basic mathematical skills.
From that same poll:
..Almost 9 in 10 U.S. adults, 85%, favor a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children..
Yet these are among the law abiding individuals seized for deportation, when they turn up for their regular immigration court monitoring.
Most people want the total numbers to fall, but don't want the numbers in most migration scenarios to fall. It's not quite "less migrants in theory but not in practice", but it's pretty close;
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52704-is-there-public-support-for-large-scale-removals-of-migrants
The way that most people square that circle is to massively overestimate the proportion of immigration that is irregular/illegal because the boats are so visible. From that YouGov link,
Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.
As our American friends are currently discovering, anti-immigrant talk is much more popular than anti-immigrant action.
The overall approval rating does look much lower than other polls .
https://abcnews.go.com/538/immigration-swung-voters-color-trump/story?id=116016407
I recall several court cases where I have been able to get ahead of the witness using arithmetic and basic maths whilst cross examining and people look at you as if you have done some magic trick rather than simply been able to count. It does not reflect well on our education system.
Trouble is, most of us are idiots. At least when faced with complex issues outside our expertise. And sometimes even more so than that.
And an awful lot of people expect life for them to just carry on in the same vein, until it doesn't.
And remember that Trump emphasised time and again that the targets of his cruelty would only be the worst of the worst.
Is the immigration debate entirely dissimilar here ?
We saw the same phenomenon in this country in 2024. Its a pretty tough time to be an incumbent almost anywhere.
Related to this is that people are routinely amazed that others don't know at all what they know a lot about. (Like most people don't know that Sir K is the son of a toolmaker; couldn't name the four gospels; don't know whether Alfred the Great was before or after Henry III).
I can't decide if he has discovered irony, or is just a putz. US applications for UK citizenship are at an all time high.
Arthur Dent: What happens if I press this button?
Ford Prefect: I wouldn't-
Arthur Dent: Oh.
Ford Prefect: What happened?
Arthur Dent: A sign lit up, saying 'Please do not press this button again.
Only 47% approval amongst whites is also a concern, Trump got 57% of the white vote last year
We've also seen a concerted anti-London push from Reform in recent days with Reform councillors in neighbouring authorities advocating "re-uniting" London Boroughs with their pre-1965 counties so Havering with Essex, Bromley with Kent etc. I suppose there might be some vague nostalgia for that as there might be for Yugoslavia or Prussia but most residents are, I suspect, for all they might loathe Sadiq Khan currently, happier within London with their 60+ free travel (which I know is supported by everyone on here).
If the same quantity of dough is used but is stretched more with an 18 incher then you would be better to go for two 12 inchers.
This is a volume of a cylinder question rather than an area of a circle question.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LI6b_nt0w0
Also I like a thin base and the thinner the better
Brilliant! This is a thread I can really lean into!
In no particular order...
Boutique hotel in B A being newly refurbed, I snuck into the new master suite to grab a photo. By the patio doors to the terrace was the bathroom suite, half-height glass so you could look out from the throne, on the outside of the bathroom partition wall was a lone urinal.
Business hotel in Vietnam, glass walled bath and wet room in the centre of the room, toilet was seperate in a discreet corner with glass door and a phone. As a friend said "so you can ring down for more bog roll".
Hotel in Canada, double bedroom with large spa bath afterthought(?). Standard layout but the bathroom partition had been partly removed for the bath to extend into the room rendering no part of the bathroom private.
Honourable mentions
Hotel bar in Finland, gents toilet. Urinals on the wall and in splendid, completely public, isolation in the centre of the room a freestanding toilet.
Restaurant gents. Kz, a double cubicle, one door and a small half partition separating two toilets. Decorated in a very red tartan.
Simple things can fool people who don't think clearly; for example, during my recent absence our Sunil posted a photo of central London, and one of the responses said "it looks like you are significantly ABOVE the top of the Shard, which is impossible in a London building". Yet in the photo the top of the Shard was very clearly above the horizon; it ought to have taken just a moment's thought to realise that the photographer is always LOWER than any object that is above a level horizon in a photo.
As someone subjected to Zone 9 (I.e. out of London tfl fares) for 35 years it would also allow TfL to charge significantly more for their tickets in those boroughs
But it’s also the same on Teesside with anyone south of the Tees desperate to claim they are really in North Yorkshire
As for the travel thing, Hexit campaigners usually promise that will be kept. Somehow.
Incidentally, Andrew Rosindell's latest local campaign is to oppose the formation of a massive borough of East London, taking in all of historic Essex in Greater London, with a massive permanent Labour majority bullying plucky little Romford. That's nonsense, isn't it?
https://x.com/LucasSa56947288/status/1956120150224331081
Yaroslav Trofimov
@yarotrof
38m
Lavrov showed up in Alaska wearing a USSR sweatshirt. Very reassuring to at least 14 of Russia’s neighbors.
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1956257440091267365
The difference (scalar) between 47 and 52 is 5. If you want to include the direction of travel you need to ask for the displacement, the vector equivalent.
Just to clarify your understanding of how it works, boundaries have little or nothing to do with the 60+ Oystercard and Freedom pass. It's provided by Transport for London and can be used on TfL services whether those services are running inside Greater London or not. As an example, if I want to go to Sandown Park for an afternoon's racing and I don't want to pay for travel, I take the train to Surbiton and then catch the K3 bus (a TfL service) to Esher High Street and then walk to the track. I could pay to take the train to Esher but with my punting prowess, I need all the cash I can spare.
IF Bromley ceased to be a London Borough but bus services (including the Croydon Tramlink and Overground rail) were still provided by Transport for London, 60+ Oyster cards and Freedom passes would still be valid on those services and people from other parts of London could still use them for nothing. The locals would have to pay.
As usual with Reform "policies", it's incoherent and doesn't reflect the reality of how people live but apparently 30% of us want these clowns in Government. I suppose the one difference is some genuinely thought Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer might bring about some positive change and improve people's lives and I can appreciate that sense of disappointment. No one will be under any illusions with Reform.
The question of toppings is an interesting one. We used to do an all you can eat offer on Wednesdays and we had to note which round people were on as the kitchen would put fewer toppings on each one. So the first pizza was like a normal one, and by the time people were on their third or fourth pizza it was pretty bare. The funny thing was that nobody ever noticed!
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/i4TICZ67Ws4
And then throw in a lot of anti-American and anti-western shite.
Calls to scrap Over-60s free travel after it 'costs £84m in lost revenue'
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/freedom-pass-over-60s-free-travel-cost-cuts-b1243075.html
Though that doesn't negate your argument; indeed it strengthens it. London does have the feature that nothing visible can be lower than Thames water level ...
>vino Posts: 194
I went to a debate in 2006 (?) re ID cards - the "Pro" being Nick Palmer who was very good against the Tories & Lib Dems - at the end of the debate the motion to introduce ID cards was carried. <
Thanks vino. I don't dismiss all fears about misuse of ID cards, but people who want to misuse personal information have plenty of ways to do it already. Not having a simple way of proving who you are is just a nuisance and gives an illusory sense of security.
And you have to get home from the pub somehow.
Also this is a pass for those between 60 and 67. It doesn't offer the completely free travel you get as a pensioner it just allows those not yet in retirement to travel more cheaply than people in their 30/40/50s.
Most think tanks start from their desired conclusion and work back to some plausible-sounding data.
Strangely, every other country in Europe manages to have ID cards without committing crimes in the process.
@Penddu2 asked on the last thread if the Tories 7th in Cardiff last night was a record low for them....
No, I haven't gone too far back but they came 8th and 9th (and last) in the two Highland by elections in June.
They came 6tn in the other Cardiff by election since the LE in May iirc so Cardiff seems to be problematic for them to say the least. Cardiff North seems to be their 'best' Cardiff locality, 20% at the GE.
Jesmond currently counting this morning.
In London you have the 60+ Oyster which basically gives you free travel on TfL services wherever they operate and trains within the London boundary after 9am Monday to Friday and all day Saturdays, Sundays and Bank Holidays and from 66 you have the Freedom Pass which is basically the same in London but can also be used on any bus service outside London as part of the English National Concessionary Bus Travel Scheme.
Not surprisingly, the IEA want to get rid of the whole lot and make everyone pay full fares (presumably this would apply to children who currently free or discounted travel in London as well).
It's the same debate as we had with the Winter Fuel Allowance - should the 60+ card be means tested which sounds like more costly bureaucracy and on what bases should it be tested, income, location, property value, etc?
The perception is there are plenty of wealthy older people for whom this is a nice perk and they could afford to pay the fares - there's also the perception there are poor elderly people for whom it's a necessary lifeline to get out and about. Both are probably true and false in equal measure.
TfL's shortfall isn't the fault of the 60+ Oyster card which was introduced by Ken or Boris in 2012. More likely is the fall off in customer numbers post pandemic. Even now, tube passenger numbers on weekdays are 80-85% of pre pandemic levels (weekend numbers however have recovered strongly). Now, you could argue the numbers disguise the level of evasion - some claim one in six journeys are fraudulent, it may be more, it may be less.
Despite the fact he was born in 1964. So has no memory of it.
You'd have to be 65+.
And about 80 to have any practical civic memory.