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Happy 100th birthday to the most favourable party in Wales – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Omnium said:

    Taz said:

    Why have the hundred got some girl lip syncing in her pants??
    What utter drivel

    Down wiv da yoof, innit blud
    One day, in many centuries time, your comment may be unearthed. Taz - he liked clown shows. Oh dear. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...

    Just a moment of insanity.

    Whereas the Hundred has been far too many years of insanity.
    As a Birmingham City fan I’ve been used to clown shows.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    edited August 5

    This deal is only for a year then needs renegotiating...Channel Islands to France must be in play.

    Do Labour supporters - if there are any left on here - honestly believe this is a good deal? That Starmer has done "well"?

    Surely no one on PB is that dishonest and/or deluded
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,157
    Sandpit said:

    Violent Channel-smuggling gang's French and UK network exposed by undercover BBC investigation

    In June 2024, we tracked down Jabal to a migrant reception centre in Luxembourg and confronted him on the street. He denied any involvement and, although we promptly informed the French police, quickly disappeared. "He fled after your intervention in Luxembourg, and he changed his phone and probably fled abroad," said Xavier Delrieu, who heads the French police's anti-smuggling unit. "His whereabouts are now unknown. The investigation is continuing."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly48nmmzdro

    Is tipping off the criminals by confronting then then informing the authorities the right way to do things?

    Almost as if the BBC don’t want the culprits to be caught, but love the idea of the exclusive story of the operation.
    Almost as if the BBC is several steps ahead of Border Force and the National Crime Agency. Smash the quangos!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,216
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    Yet we all thought that the Chagos Islands “deal” might be the low point of this government.
    It is actually quite hard to be this bad at negotiating

    Unless, of course, Starmer and Co don't give a F about the British national interest
    If he took the cow to market and accepted an offer of magic beans by a troll he'd give the beans back to him and agree a fee of further cattle for the right to look at the beans, or a picture of similar beans, on certain Sundays
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097

    tlg86 said:

    Why have the hundred got some girl lip syncing in her pants??
    What utter drivel

    Well away from the Pavilion so that the members don't get a heart attack...
    More likely to have a stroke.

    Ooh err.
    Reminds me of the time a man exposed himself to two elderly women on Blackpool beach. One had a stroke the other couldn’t reach.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,057
    Taz said:

    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61

    Surely the whole point of the minimum wage being lower for youngsters is to give them an advantage in the market.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    I notice Cooper was still not willing to say how many go back end week. Have they not agreed it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,216
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61

    Surely the whole point of the minimum wage being lower for youngsters is to give them an advantage in the market.
    Why would anyone take a risk on an 18 year old with no experience or references if there is no financial advantage??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    edited August 5

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61

    Surely the whole point of the minimum wage being lower for youngsters is to give them an advantage in the market.
    Why would anyone take a risk on an 18 year old with no experience or references if there is no financial advantage??
    And then you get stuck in the doom loop of 16-21 have little experience and try to get jobs where they ask for experience....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,203
    Taz said:

    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61

    That just makes many marginal hospitality and retail businesses even more marginal.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61

    Surely the whole point of the minimum wage being lower for youngsters is to give them an advantage in the market.
    Why would anyone take a risk on an 18 year old with no experience or references if there is no financial advantage??
    Bethell can't be blamed for his inclusion.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    edited August 5

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    Yet we all thought that the Chagos Islands “deal” might be the low point of this government.
    It is actually quite hard to be this bad at negotiating

    Unless, of course, Starmer and Co don't give a F about the British national interest
    If he took the cow to market and accepted an offer of magic beans by a troll he'd give the beans back to him and agree a fee of further cattle for the right to look at the beans, or a picture of similar beans, on certain Sundays
    Its worth repeating, while the US is building crazy amount of Nvidia based data centres for AI, the UK government did a deal with a little known Scandi company who is promising vaporware i.e. AMD based AI data centres, that AMD themselves can't make work, and promised billions of investment despite having only raised £10 millions so far for their plan.

    21st Century magic beans.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    As long as they don't bring one Andrew Neil in from France we'll be safe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,727
    Omnium said:

    Taz said:

    Why have the hundred got some girl lip syncing in her pants??
    What utter drivel

    Down wiv da yoof, innit blud
    One day, in many centuries time, your comment may be unearthed. Taz - he liked clown shows. Oh dear. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...

    Just a moment of insanity.

    Whereas the Hundred has been far too many years of insanity.
    Meanwhile, full house at Cheltenham for two fairly young sides (I think Van Buuren was the only one on either side above 35) and on checking the YouTube stream it's had 97,000 hits, which is not far off what Sky get for a standard Test.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,304
    Having got rid of the statistics chief for dodgy numbers, Trump is now taking aim at banks he claims discriminate against his followers (and him). More EO due next week.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5436291-trump-banks-discrimination-allegations/
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Labour are looking to increase the minimum wage for 18-21 year olds to bring it in line with 21 plus. A move not welcomed by hospitality which is already struggling.

    Will this help or end up counter productive. I fear the latter.

    https://x.com/gmb_union/status/1952712417588236686?s=61

    Surely the whole point of the minimum wage being lower for youngsters is to give them an advantage in the market.
    That’s what I thought to, given the lack of experience.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Maths question leaked from the 2026 advanced higher maths paper in Scotland:
    If the differential attainment gap between the bottom 20% of society and the top 20% fell from 17.1% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 when can we expect the gap to be eliminated:
    (a) 2026
    (b) 2196
    (c) when every applicant gets an A or
    (d) none of the above.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,727
    Battlebus said:

    Having got rid of the statistics chief for dodgy numbers, Trump is now taking aim at banks he claims discriminate against his followers (and him). More EO due next week.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5436291-trump-banks-discrimination-allegations/

    It's very wrong of the banks to discriminate a man who has been found guilty of repeatedly falsifying his books in order to obtain credit from them by fraud.

    How bloody dare they?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,997
    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,186
    Omnium said:

    a

    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NASA's plans to stick a nuclear reactor on the moon by 2030 seems quick to me.

    So the moon achieves Net Zero power generation by 2030. Well done to them.

    Not content with leaving assorted shite on the moon, humankind now wants to turn it into a nuclear waste repository.
    Not my first choice but as a barren rock at least it won't piss off any locals.
    Because of the long lunar night (14 days) a reactor would be very useful for a long term base. Lots of probes die during the lunar night due to the -180c temperature. And of course, no sun for solar power.

    In addition to the electrical power, the heat given off would be of great advantage - because of physics, even 30% of the power converted to electricity would be remarkable. On the moon, in the lunar night, the 70%+ “wasted” as heat would be valuable resource.
    Also a problem, as what do you do with the heat during the lunar day ?
    You'd want some sort of extensive heat exchange system to store it for use at night, as conventional cooling isn't going to cope with the huge environmental disparities between night and day.
    Molten salt? Some kind of Sterling engine? Big fins to dissipate heat via intrared?
    Radiative cooling isn't going to do it, I suspect.

    Molten salt is great, but where do you get the salt ? You're certainly not shipping it up there.
    Just heat up a large mass of regolith. The plumbing of the heat pump/heat exchanger for a lunar environment might be quite the engineering task ?

    One “interesting” design is a molten core reactor. It deliberately melts down - and stays molten. It eventually reaches thermal equilibrium with the regolith it is buried in. Run pipes through that to extract all the heat you want.

    It says everything that Edward Teller liked this idea.
    So it's basically a slightly stable big bomb that hasn't gone off? I'd hate to be the plumber running the pipes in a spacesuit.
    Nope.

    That’s the classic mistake from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowups_Happen

    It’s a ceramic bucket full of molten uranium salts (probably)

    It physically can’t go bang. Just sits there being very hot and radioactive.
    I'm not convinced. Explain to me why it can't go bang.

    Surely it can and will if it finds the environment is doing much the same thing as it is?
    Same reason the original TRIGA can’t go prompt critical - configuration. The fact that it’s configured as a reactor precludes it being a bomb.

    Like TRIGA it can be designed to be self regulating - gets too active, expands, activity drops. The original demo of this was Edward Teller pulling the main control rod of a TRIGA out, in a fraction of second. Instead of Chernobyl, the reactor went quiet. Which is why TRIGA reactors were used in labs and universities.

  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 696

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.





  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,942
    DavidL said:

    Maths question leaked from the 2026 advanced higher maths paper in Scotland:
    If the differential attainment gap between the bottom 20% of society and the top 20% fell from 17.1% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 when can we expect the gap to be eliminated:
    (a) 2026
    (b) 2196
    (c) when every applicant gets an A or
    (d) none of the above.

    (d)

    Easy peasy.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,765
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    Yet we all thought that the Chagos Islands “deal” might be the low point of this government.
    It is actually quite hard to be this bad at negotiating

    Unless, of course, Starmer and Co don't give a F about the British national interest
    Gus O'Donnell said his job was “to maximise global welfare, not national welfare”. It's that again. Smug bastards.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    ydoethur said:

    Battlebus said:

    Having got rid of the statistics chief for dodgy numbers, Trump is now taking aim at banks he claims discriminate against his followers (and him). More EO due next week.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5436291-trump-banks-discrimination-allegations/

    It's very wrong of the banks to discriminate a man who has been found guilty of repeatedly falsifying his books in order to obtain credit from them by fraud.

    How bloody dare they?
    Pretty blatantly too - his own defences were basically that value depended on whatever he thought at any given moment, and that if you put a disclaimer that people have to do their own research you can make up any number you want.

    Even if people don't think it was fraud, it shows his personal company finances were a basket case - trump media and the presidential gravy train have really solidified his finances by comparison.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    Yet we all thought that the Chagos Islands “deal” might be the low point of this government.
    It is actually quite hard to be this bad at negotiating

    Unless, of course, Starmer and Co don't give a F about the British national interest
    Gus O'Donnell said his job was “to maximise global welfare, not national welfare”. It's that again. Smug bastards.
    Sounds like a pretty barmy approach. You can surely try to do both, and if that is not possible (and the former does not always lead to the latter) then to maximise national welfare as much as you can without outright screwing over others, if you want to be moral about it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Maths question leaked from the 2026 advanced higher maths paper in Scotland:
    If the differential attainment gap between the bottom 20% of society and the top 20% fell from 17.1% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 when can we expect the gap to be eliminated:
    (a) 2026
    (b) 2196
    (c) when every applicant gets an A or
    (d) none of the above.

    (d)

    Easy peasy.
    Jenny Gilruth, the Education Minister, would have you believe (a). Given grade inflation a case can be made for (c). But yes, I agree (d) is the obvious answer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,028
    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    It is such an easy deal to make that it is amazing that Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson, Sunak and Starmer* have all failed to get the French to help us out for free. Or perhaps it is a hard to deal to negotiate and they hold all the cards.

    Deliberately left out the Trusster as in fairness for some reason she didn't have long enough to attempt this one.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,757

    This deal is only for a year then needs renegotiating...Channel Islands to France must be in play in return for Starmer signing for 99 year deal.

    Better still, can't we use the channel islands as our Rwanda?

    Just a joke...
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097

    Here comes AI

    ‘BREAKING 🚨 | TikTok workers in Berlin are on strike after mass layoffs were announced to replace staff with AI.

    160 out of 400 workers - mostly content moderators - have lost their jobs.‘

    Strike all they want. It’s going to get worse.

    https://x.com/the_tuc/status/1952716446363955562?s=61
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,727
    edited August 5
    Taz said:


    Here comes AI

    ‘BREAKING 🚨 | TikTok workers in Berlin are on strike after mass layoffs were announced to replace staff with AI.

    160 out of 400 workers - mostly content moderators - have lost their jobs.‘

    Strike all they want. It’s going to get worse.

    https://x.com/the_tuc/status/1952716446363955562?s=61

    Reminds me a bit of the time the print unions went on strike at News International because they had all been sacked due to Murdoch's rollout of computer technology.

    They hadn't quite understood the problem...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    edited August 5
    Taz said:


    Here comes AI

    ‘BREAKING 🚨 | TikTok workers in Berlin are on strike after mass layoffs were announced to replace staff with AI.

    160 out of 400 workers - mostly content moderators - have lost their jobs.‘

    Strike all they want. It’s going to get worse.

    https://x.com/the_tuc/status/1952716446363955562?s=61

    Interesting just as the focus is finally on Temu selling dodgy shit, TikTok Shop is the new Temu....you get your own users to flog shit products. Genius.

    I am surprised they have 400 content moderators in Germany, you would have thought they would have outsourced it to a former German colony.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,498
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    As long as they don't bring one Andrew Neil in from France we'll be safe.
    There's some world class armchair negotiators around, I must say. Glad I don't have to deal with any of them. They'd run rings around me and whistle Beethoven's 5th at the same time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    High quality cricket in the Hundred...no laughing at the back.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    The brilliant Space 1999 becomes real, by 2030

    😱

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/1952698856476381251?s=61
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097

    High quality cricket in the Hundred...no laughing at the back.

    The raw passion in the crowd is a marked contrast to yesterdays test
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,150

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    Leon said:

    This deal is only for a year then needs renegotiating...Channel Islands to France must be in play.

    Do Labour supporters - if there are any left on here - honestly believe this is a good deal? That Starmer has done "well"?

    Surely no one on PB is that dishonest and/or deluded
    I believe the current line to take is 'There has not been an actual riot about this exact policy, therefore people don't care about it and it's just a right wing talking point, therefore GO STARMER!!'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,727
    edited August 5

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    Didn't they do that in 1999 as well? Or did they come third in Wales?

    Edit - they were third in Wales, but fourth in constituency seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,942
    edited August 5
    kle4 said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    Yet we all thought that the Chagos Islands “deal” might be the low point of this government.
    It is actually quite hard to be this bad at negotiating

    Unless, of course, Starmer and Co don't give a F about the British national interest
    Gus O'Donnell said his job was “to maximise global welfare, not national welfare”. It's that again. Smug bastards.
    Sounds like a pretty barmy approach. You can surely try to do both, and if that is not possible (and the former does not always lead to the latter) then to maximise national welfare as much as you can without outright screwing over others, if you want to be moral about it.
    I think it's "maximize national welfare, while recognizing that screwing other countries over can create ill will that is negative for future national welfare"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.


    I agree, but I do feel Plaid are very similar to Labour. Have they got any actual alternatives to Labour policies except doing it 'more Welshly'? Reform at the top of its game should be able to demolish them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,590
    ydoethur said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    Didn't they do that in 1999 as well? Or did they come third in Wales?
    Mildly surprised on looking it up that they were third in both.
    Ah, the glory days..
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    edited August 5

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,187
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Yes, he's a pussyfooter
    Making a key policy dependent on the French (or any other country) is a hostage to fortune
    And the notion that smashing the gangs is a possible solution is like believing that eliminating tobacconists will stop smoking
    They are so pathetically out of their depth one wants to weep
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    Extraordinary Developments
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Leon said:

    Extraordinary Developments

    In The Hundred at Lords ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    edited August 5
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,195

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories could be 6th in Scotland, behind SNP, Reform, Labour, Greens and Lib Dems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    Free sorry for people who paid to watch that tripe in the Hundred.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Foxy said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
    I get the impression Reform have now peaked in the late twenties/early thirties.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,928
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Extraordinary Developments

    In The Hundred at Lords ?
    Kane Williamson won't be including this one in his career highlights
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    edited August 5
    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?



    I’ve seen a few videos of humanoid robots running as well. Chinese. Most impressive.

    Meanwhile the likes of Tharsus here are advancing far more slowly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?


    Ahahahaha

    HAHAH

    Superb!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,195
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?


    Robot for scale.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,216
    Foxy said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
    The Tories in Wales are really reliant on getting about 12/13% plus which would pretty much guarantee them 10 plus seats and probably a dozen. If they slide towards 10% they risk missing out on a slew of '6th place' seats.
    Scotland they are probably screwed unless they can hold on to 3 or 4 constituencies - probably Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire then 2 of West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway, Ayr. Which are probably the only 6 they have any chances in. That would probably keep them ahead of the LDs and Greens but they are in all sorts of trouble.
    They will be hoping there is a really visceral punish the government vote to hide their shame
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,195
    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    Denmark to tear down Copenhagen’s ‘pornographic’ mermaid statue
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/05/denmark-copenhagen-pornographic-statue-big-mermaid/

    I thought Scandi nations where much more open and relaxed about nudity.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,216

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Are there any UK politicians with charisma?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?



    I’ve seen a few videos of humanoid robots running as well. Chinese. Most impressive.

    Meanwhile the likes of Tharsus here are advancing far more slowly.
    I remember when @Benpointer was Pooh-poohing my enthusiasm about new technology. He said “wake me
    up when robots can stack my dishwasher”

    Well, now we have robots that can stack dishwashers. Slightly slowly, but they can do it

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    ..

    Foxy said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
    The Tories in Wales are really reliant on getting about 12/13% plus which would pretty much guarantee them 10 plus seats and probably a dozen. If they slide towards 10% they risk missing out on a slew of '6th place' seats.
    Scotland they are probably screwed unless they can hold on to 3 or 4 constituencies - probably Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire then 2 of West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway, Ayr. Which are probably the only 6 they have any chances in. That would probably keep them ahead of the LDs and Greens but they are in all sorts of trouble.
    They will be hoping there is a really visceral punish the government vote to hide their shame

    Foxy said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
    The Tories in Wales are really reliant on getting about 12/13% plus which would pretty much guarantee them 10 plus seats and probably a dozen. If they slide towards 10% they risk missing out on a slew of '6th place' seats.
    Scotland they are probably screwed unless they can hold on to 3 or 4 constituencies - probably Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire then 2 of West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway, Ayr. Which are probably the only 6 they have any chances in. That would probably keep them ahead of the LDs and Greens but they are in all sorts of trouble.
    They will be hoping there is a really visceral punish the government vote to hide their shame
    Worth remembering that Welsh Assembly Tories are a wetter than wet bunch who just purged all their right wingers - their polling descent is an interesting case study for those urging the Tories to ape the Lib Dems.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    Btw where is @Benpointer?

    Not been seen for a while. Hope he’s good. We need an update on his self build house
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,195

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Are there any UK politicians with charisma?
    Well, err, there’s ???? and ???? . No, there aren’t.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,742

    Denmark to tear down Copenhagen’s ‘pornographic’ mermaid statue
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/05/denmark-copenhagen-pornographic-statue-big-mermaid/

    I thought Scandi nations where much more open and relaxed about nudity.

    It’s alright, she’s already bagged a new gig advertising jeans.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256

    Foxy said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
    The Tories in Wales are really reliant on getting about 12/13% plus which would pretty much guarantee them 10 plus seats and probably a dozen. If they slide towards 10% they risk missing out on a slew of '6th place' seats.
    Scotland they are probably screwed unless they can hold on to 3 or 4 constituencies - probably Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire then 2 of West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway, Ayr. Which are probably the only 6 they have any chances in. That would probably keep them ahead of the LDs and Greens but they are in all sorts of trouble.
    They will be hoping there is a really visceral punish the government vote to hide their shame
    Worth remembering that Welsh Assembly Tories are a wetter than wet bunch who just purged all their right wingers - their polling descent is an interesting case study for those urging the Tories to ape the Lib Dems.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478
    Interesting article* on the AI bubble and how it may well be driven by bots. Bots are now over 50% of Internet traffic it seems, the "Dead Internet" has become manifest:

    https://fortune.com/2025/07/22/is-artificial-intelligence-ai-bubble-bots-over-50-percent-internet/

    *Ironically part authored by AI!

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    edited August 5

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.

    I have no doubt that Starmer thinks he is doing the right thing for Britain, and wants Britain to do well.

    The issue is his vision of Britain is increasingly becoming undermined/less credible.

    A lot of the political class fundamentally see Britain in a different way to a significant chunk of the population. They see its merits as being a liberal society, which plays by the “rules”, sets an example, is enlightened and jolly and welcome and diverse and permissive. And there have been merits to this, both economically and socially over the years.

    But there are an increasing number of people who simply don’t see the benefits any more, and are impacted by the drawbacks, who see this as going too far, and are becoming divorced from this vision.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?



    I’ve seen a few videos of humanoid robots running as well. Chinese. Most impressive.

    Meanwhile the likes of Tharsus here are advancing far more slowly.
    I remember when @Benpointer was Pooh-poohing my enthusiasm about new technology. He said “wake me
    up when robots can stack my dishwasher”

    Well, now we have robots that can stack dishwashers. Slightly slowly, but they can do it

    Given the rapid advances we are seeing in the tech it makes you wonder where we will be in five years time,

    AI destroying loads of entry level white collar jobs and robots massively advanced they will not just be stacking dishwashers but running households.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    boulay said:

    Denmark to tear down Copenhagen’s ‘pornographic’ mermaid statue
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/05/denmark-copenhagen-pornographic-statue-big-mermaid/

    I thought Scandi nations where much more open and relaxed about nudity.

    It’s alright, she’s already bagged a new gig advertising jeans.
    Really? I thought she spent the whole time legless.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,498
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    Yet we all thought that the Chagos Islands “deal” might be the low point of this government.
    It is actually quite hard to be this bad at negotiating

    Unless, of course, Starmer and Co don't give a F about the British national interest
    Gus O'Donnell said his job was “to maximise global welfare, not national welfare”. It's that again. Smug bastards.
    Sounds like a pretty barmy approach. You can surely try to do both, and if that is not possible (and the former does not always lead to the latter) then to maximise national welfare as much as you can without outright screwing over others, if you want to be moral about it.
    I think it's "maximize national welfare, while recognizing that screwing other countries over can create ill will that is negative for future national welfare"
    We don’t have friends we have interests. But it's in our interests to have friends.

    This is the 'transactional' way to look at it if the concept of morality in foreign policy is deemed too wet and wimpy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323
    edited August 5

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader and Boris is also the only recent Conservative leader who could hold together the One Nation and ERG right and win the redwall and centrist swing voters
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,353
    Need to make fox hunting legal again I guess?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,558
    edited August 5
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader
    The state of Boris these days. Normally leaders age when in power, Boris seems to have gone downhill rapidly, like somebody trapped on a tropical island. I keep expecting him to pop up doing a video about his ball called Winston.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.

    I have no doubt that Starmer thinks he is doing the right thing for Britain, and wants Britain to do well.

    The issue is his vision of Britain is increasingly becoming undermined/less credible.

    A lot of the political class fundamentally see Britain in a different way to a significant chunk of the population. They see its merits as being a liberal society, which plays by the “rules”, sets an example, is enlightened and jolly and welcome and diverse and permissive. And there have been merits to this, both economically and socially over the years.

    But there are an increasing number of people who simply don’t see the benefits any more, and are impacted by the drawbacks, who see this as going too far, and are becoming divorced from this vision.
    Starmer's actions go well beyond any notion of playing by the rules. One can work respectfully within the rules in one's own national interest. That isn't what Starmer has done. These are his choices.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,195
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader and Boris is also the only recent Conservative leader who could hold together the One Nation and ERG right and win the redwall and centrist swing voters
    Boris has got the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader
    The state of Boris these days. Normally leaders age when in power, Boris seems to have gone downhill rapidly, like somebody trapped on a tropical island. I keep expecting him to pop up doing a video about his ball called Winston.
    And the other one called Clementine?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,766
    edited August 5

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.
    Starmer has form on treason in other areas though. In fact, making your country give away a strategic island chain to a Chinese-allied country while paying tens of billions for the privilege and letting the Chinese build a needlessly huge embassy in London so they can kidnap and intimidate dissidents in privacy is even beyond treachery.

    We can contrast those actions with damaging, but not apparently treacherous decisions like working to get Jeremy Corbyn elected, managing to be officially unaware of Jimmy Saville while DPP and appointing Reeves as CotE.

    And he does all these while posing in front of a Union Jack at every opportunity. I would say it makes me sick, but ifI thought about it too much I'd need to spend the next four years permanently vomiting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader and Boris is also the only recent Conservative leader who could hold together the One Nation and ERG right and win the redwall and centrist swing voters
    Boris has got the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
    Rubbish, he is the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher, perhaps the most charismatic Tory leader since Churchill as he was also warmer than Maggie. Indeed Boris is the only Conservative leader who really had charisma this century along with Cameron
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,936
    This would, of course, not just be inappropriate, but wildly illegal.

    Cornyn presses FBI to help Texas bring back Democrats who left state

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5436818-texas-democrats-cornyn-fbi/
    ..Cornyn sent a letter to FBI Director Kash Patel on Tuesday urging the agency to take “any appropriate steps” to help law enforcement find or arrest the lawmakers who left the state to deny the state House quorum and prevent it from being able to conduct business in the special legislative session that Gov. Greg Abbott (R) called...

  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    edited August 5
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?



    I’ve seen a few videos of humanoid robots running as well. Chinese. Most impressive.

    Meanwhile the likes of Tharsus here are advancing far more slowly.
    I remember when @Benpointer was Pooh-poohing my enthusiasm about new technology. He said “wake me
    up when robots can stack my dishwasher”

    Well, now we have robots that can stack dishwashers. Slightly slowly, but they can do it

    Given the rapid advances we are seeing in the tech it makes you wonder where we will be in five years time,

    AI destroying loads of entry level white collar jobs and robots massively advanced they will not just be stacking dishwashers but running households.
    I’m not allowed to talk about AI so I won’t. But I can talk about robots

    The scary thing about the latest robots is that they are coming for the physical jobs at the same time. Everyone has been presuming “oh we can all retrain as plumbers” but it seems to me that the robots will be able to do all of these tasks - 24/7, tirelessly, with much greater strength

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,359
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats going on with Everton. 1/2 hr from nearest station !

    15 minutes walk maximum from Sandhills.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,498

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.

    I have no doubt that Starmer thinks he is doing the right thing for Britain, and wants Britain to do well.

    The issue is his vision of Britain is increasingly becoming undermined/less credible.

    A lot of the political class fundamentally see Britain in a different way to a significant chunk of the population. They see its merits as being a liberal society, which plays by the “rules”, sets an example, is enlightened and jolly and welcome and diverse and permissive. And there have been merits to this, both economically and socially over the years.

    But there are an increasing number of people who simply don’t see the benefits any more, and are impacted by the drawbacks, who see this as going too far, and are becoming divorced from this vision.
    Starmer's actions go well beyond any notion of playing by the rules. One can work respectfully within the rules in one's own national interest. That isn't what Starmer has done. These are his choices.
    There are few things more ignorable on here than people who voted Leave banging on about the 'national interest'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,936
    AgentMail just launched email for agents and robots.

    It's sort of obvious that if humans are working together with AIs, the AIs will need email addresses. ..


    @agentmail_to
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,359
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader and Boris is also the only recent Conservative leader who could hold together the One Nation and ERG right and win the redwall and centrist swing voters
    Boris has got the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
    Rubbish, he is the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher, perhaps the most charismatic Tory leader since Churchill as he was also warmer than Maggie. Indeed Boris is the only Conservative leader who really had charisma this century along with Cameron
    That depends if your criterion for "charisma" is spouting incessant obvious bollocks.
    Or not.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,743

    Foxy said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    They do look doomed on this polling.

    It isn't too rosy for Reform though. They may well wind up the biggest party in the Sened under PR, but with a FPTP system that's a pretty low ceiling.
    The Tories in Wales are really reliant on getting about 12/13% plus which would pretty much guarantee them 10 plus seats and probably a dozen. If they slide towards 10% they risk missing out on a slew of '6th place' seats.
    Scotland they are probably screwed unless they can hold on to 3 or 4 constituencies - probably Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire then 2 of West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway, Ayr. Which are probably the only 6 they have any chances in. That would probably keep them ahead of the LDs and Greens but they are in all sorts of trouble.
    They will be hoping there is a really visceral punish the government vote to hide their shame
    Worth remembering that Welsh Assembly Tories are a wetter than wet bunch who just purged all their right wingers - their polling descent is an interesting case study for those urging the Tories to ape the Lib Dems.
    Oh, they are the Missing Link then?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,863
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.
    Starmer has form on treason in other areas though. In fact, making your country give away a strategic island chain to a Chinese-allied country while paying tens of billions for the privilege and letting the Chinese build a needlessly huge embassy in London so they can kidnap and intimidate dissidents in privacy is even beyond treachery.

    We can contrast those actions with damaging, but not apparently treacherous decisions like working to get Jeremy Corbyn elected, managing to be officially unaware of Jimmy Saville while DPP and appointing Reeves as CotE.

    And he does all these while posing in front of a Union Jack at every opportunity. I would say it makes me sick, but ifI thought about it too much I'd need to spend the next four years permanently vomiting.
    Yes

    I do sometimes wonder if Starmer is actively compromised and working for a foreign power. Quite seriously
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    "Under the Anglo-French one-in-one-out migrant deal, which is more like 20 in, one out, the UK will pay not just the cost of transporting small boat migrants back to France but also pay to bring those asylum seekers deemed to have a greater chance of success across the Channel from France. All that on top of the hundreds of millions London pays Paris to beef police presence on the coast around Calais.
    Starmer et al really are quite the negotiators."

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1952769138486550958

    So what would you have suggested. It is us that wants them moved back. The French don't want them. So when you negotiated with the French and suggested they pay and they say no, what was going to be your next move.
    I would have made fishing access dependent on their agreement on this. That’s where we had massive leverage

    Starmer is either too dumb or too treacherous to do this
    Remember Starmer said that he preferred Davos to Westminster. It was an unguarded moment with someone he regarded as a very safe interviewer - it even surprised Maitless, hence her scoff. The man is fully bought into an internationalist agenda, and that agenda by definition is going to be against the interests of a single country sometimes. If the country is gobby Brexity Britain, standing in opposition to the global direction of travel, make that all the time.

    If you have this perspective, rinsing Britain, proving Brexit was wrong (on some warped level in their heads), and giving the money back to an EU member state is all quite right and proper. Starmer wouldn't call it treachery, and many here who share his views wouldn't call it that either. But of course it is.
    Starmer has form on treason in other areas though. In fact, making your country give away a strategic island chain to a Chinese-allied country while paying tens of billions for the privilege and letting the Chinese build a needlessly huge embassy in London so they can kidnap and intimidate dissidents in privacy is even beyond treachery.

    We can contrast those actions with damaging, but not apparently treacherous decisions like working to get Jeremy Corbyn elected, managing to be officially unaware of Jimmy Saville while DPP and appointing Reeves as CotE.

    And he does all these while posing in front of a Union Jack at every opportunity. I would say it makes me sick, but ifI thought about it too much I'd need to spend the next four years permanently vomiting.
    This place seems to be more and more dominated by full-on Trump-type lunacy.

    Not pleasant at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,936
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader and Boris is also the only recent Conservative leader who could hold together the One Nation and ERG right and win the redwall and centrist swing voters
    Boris has got the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
    Rubbish, he is the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher, perhaps the most charismatic Tory leader since Churchill as he was also warmer than Maggie. Indeed Boris is the only Conservative leader who really had charisma this century along with Cameron
    That depends if your criterion for "charisma" is spouting incessant obvious bollocks.
    Or not.
    No, it's being able to spout incessant bollocks, and get away with it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    In the data tables for the Freshwater Strategy poll, the first question was "do you think the UK is or is not on the right track?"

    The overall numbers were 24% Right track, 71% Wrong track. Every part of the country said we were on the Wrong Track and some by large margins (78-13 in South West, 80-16 in Yorkshire & Humber).

    EXCEPT....

    London where the sample stated had 55% on the Right Track and 42% on the Wrong Track.

    I find it worrying and telling at the same time. Call it a tale of two Britains if you like but the disconnection (and I sense it on here) between the life of those in London and the rest of England (let alone Wales and Scotland) has never been more stark.

    London is also the only UK region now where the Tories and Labour remain the top 2 parties in polls. It has the highest house prices and highest average wages and is the most pro multiculturalism and immigration.

    It has always been the case that the most successful school leavers ultimately leave their home towns and cities and head for London and the bright lights
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,057
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    In the data tables for the Freshwater Strategy poll, the first question was "do you think the UK is or is not on the right track?"

    The overall numbers were 24% Right track, 71% Wrong track. Every part of the country said we were on the Wrong Track and some by large margins (78-13 in South West, 80-16 in Yorkshire & Humber).

    EXCEPT....

    London where the sample stated had 55% on the Right Track and 42% on the Wrong Track.

    I find it worrying and telling at the same time. Call it a tale of two Britains if you like but the disconnection (and I sense it on here) between the life of those in London and the rest of England (let alone Wales and Scotland) has never been more stark.

    The odd thing about that is that I think most people saying on the wrong track would think it’s especially true of London.

    Age may be a factor, of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do think there's an interesting question of Reform's relatively (obviously the position they are in is quite spectacular by any objective measure) muted performance in Wales. I do wonder if their 'send them down the pitts' approach has been a flop. I completely agree that coal should be on the table, and that Wales should have more dependable energy industry jobs, but I don't think their policy has really landed.


    The last poll showed Reform at 28% and largest party in Wales. This is about right. As in Scotland Reform has another populist competitor unlike England. PC is not as strong as SNP so Reform does a bit better.

    May 2026 is approaching fast and I see little to stop the car crash for the big two parties that the polls and byelections predict. If Labour end up 3rd in both Scotland and Wales and wiped out at council level in much of England I dont really see a way back for them and most of their MPs will be looking for a new job.

    And as for the Tories finishing 4th in both Scotland and Wales?
    The Tories are increasingly becoming irrelevant. They probably have one last roll of the dice in Kemi’s replacement (or have to hope Reform implodes), otherwise minor party status or an eventual reverse takeover by Reform looms.
    Reform are also very much dependent on Farage's charisma, if he went the Tories would be clearly back ahead of them again soon enough
    Is there anyone in the Tory party with any charisma, though? (Excluding yourself, obviously 😄).
    Boris, Farage was firmly back in his box when Boris was PM and Tory leader and Boris is also the only recent Conservative leader who could hold together the One Nation and ERG right and win the redwall and centrist swing voters
    Boris has got the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
    Rubbish, he is the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher, perhaps the most charismatic Tory leader since Churchill as he was also warmer than Maggie. Indeed Boris is the only Conservative leader who really had charisma this century along with Cameron
    That depends if your criterion for "charisma" is spouting incessant obvious bollocks.
    Or not.
    Can do, Sunak and Starmer and Brown are probably our most intelligent PMs this century but none of them very charismatic and none of them bar Starmer won a general election
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,027
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    In the data tables for the Freshwater Strategy poll, the first question was "do you think the UK is or is not on the right track?"

    The overall numbers were 24% Right track, 71% Wrong track. Every part of the country said we were on the Wrong Track and some by large margins (78-13 in South West, 80-16 in Yorkshire & Humber).

    EXCEPT....

    London where the sample stated had 55% on the Right Track and 42% on the Wrong Track.

    I find it worrying and telling at the same time. Call it a tale of two Britains if you like but the disconnection (and I sense it on here) between the life of those in London and the rest of England (let alone Wales and Scotland) has never been more stark.

    London is also the only UK region now where the Tories and Labour remain the top 2 parties in polls. It has the highest house prices and highest average wages and is the most pro multiculturalism and immigration.

    It has always been the case that the most successful school leavers ultimately leave their home towns and cities and head for London and the bright lights
    Not based on the recent polling from YouGov and Freshwater. YouGov have Labour ahead of Reform with the Conservatives third in London. Freshwater has Labour ahead of the Greens with the Conservatives third. Both have the Conservatives on 16% in London but these are small subsamples so probably not to be relied on too much.

    The last Savanta poll for Queen Mary University had the Conservatives on 21% in London but that was back in May.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,028
    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    In the data tables for the Freshwater Strategy poll, the first question was "do you think the UK is or is not on the right track?"

    The overall numbers were 24% Right track, 71% Wrong track. Every part of the country said we were on the Wrong Track and some by large margins (78-13 in South West, 80-16 in Yorkshire & Humber).

    EXCEPT....

    London where the sample stated had 55% on the Right Track and 42% on the Wrong Track.

    I find it worrying and telling at the same time. Call it a tale of two Britains if you like but the disconnection (and I sense it on here) between the life of those in London and the rest of England (let alone Wales and Scotland) has never been more stark.

    The odd thing about that is that I think most people saying on the wrong track would think it’s especially true of London.

    Age may be a factor, of course.
    Not odd at all.

    If your experience of London is from the media the country is on the wrong track.

    If your experience of London is from London the country is on an okish track.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,765
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Absolutely fucking incredible Chinese robot dog

    Most people have no idea how fast robotics is advancing

    https://x.com/unitreerobotics/status/1952672597558309136?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Makes those Boston Dynamics videos look quaint. And dated. Future wars will surely be millions of these shooting each other with mega-lasers. Nice

    Like this ?



    I’ve seen a few videos of humanoid robots running as well. Chinese. Most impressive.

    Meanwhile the likes of Tharsus here are advancing far more slowly.
    I remember when @Benpointer was Pooh-poohing my enthusiasm about new technology. He said “wake me
    up when robots can stack my dishwasher”

    Well, now we have robots that can stack dishwashers. Slightly slowly, but they can do it

    I shall be interested when they can cut my hair. A real saving.
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