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The odds tumble on my 100/1 tip – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    WTF are sky thinking....TNT are the worst.

    Unlike that tour, in which the former England players Alastair Cook and Steven Finn provided commentary from a studio in the Netherlands, TNT is planning to send a team to Australia, although will also use coverage from the host broadcaster.

    Cook and Finn in that studio in Holland sucked all the life out of it. So instead, we will have wooden Cook and Finn plus totally biased Ozzy commentators who are also as thick as mince*. Woohooo. The Australian networks also love Vaughan and Swann for some unknown reason as the token Pommies.

    * Whenever I have seen Australian coverage it hasn't moved on at all. Its nothing like Sky with Broad, Morgan, Sangakkara providing really interesting and nuanced analysis.
    Morgan is particularly good as is Vaughn. You can see how they both were excellent captains. Their reading of the game is a level above. Broad has proven more objective than I expected.
    I don't think Vaughan is, not now.

    There is a window post career where you are still very much in touch with the players, the behind the scenes and the tactics. Then you have to work really hard to keep up. One way is still be involved with the coaching of the game e.g. Sangakkara, he knows all the world elite players because he coaches in the IPL, he knows their strengths and weaknesses, and he has all the behind the scenes info on what tactics are being considered, the stats they use, etc.

    Vaughan is clueless about T20 for instance, absolutely no idea what they are trying to do. BBC coverage of the Hundred is embarrassing for this reason, they didn't even know that the "meta" in T20 / Hundred is that taking the single can be net negative ev.
    Atherton is the best. Very smart, eloquent, intellectual - yet he wears it lightly and remains personable and charming. And of course has incredible insight into cricket and its history

    Possibly my favourite commentator in any sport

    The team Sky has put together is very varied and covers all the bases. They have the intellectual eloquent Atherton, a pro fronting the coverage, Ward is also very good. They can also do "fun" with short form coverage with the likes of Butcher, Cork, Dagnall. But where it really excels is they have this hardcore set of people who were elite and still absolutely in touch with the game, Eion Morgan, Broad, DK, and my favourite Sangakkara. You listen to those guys and learn something that is not obvious to normies every time.
    Yes, I entirely agree. One of the pleasures of this brilliant test series is - was! (Sob) - the Sky commentary. You turned on the telly and you had intelligent people talking to you intelligently about what you were watching, but also amiable and humorous. Likeable (Mel Jones is also good)

    That being said, I’ve been impressed by Sky’s British Lions coverage as well. Insightful and balanced, and excited by exciting sport. Just a shame the series kinda petered out in the rain
    Sky are good at all sports - as they ought to be given it's their core product and the budget they have for it.
    What they seem very good at is talent spotting. They seem to pick up really knowledge people who are good on camera / the mic, DK and Sangakkara are the best. Where as checks notes about MOTD recent hires, Wayne Rooney on £400k a year.....
    Yes. Although oddly (since it's the Big Banana) I'd say football is where they are no better than anyone else. Something about that sport seems to lend itself to cliche and trite 'patter' in the punditry. The beautiful game it is not, in that regard.

    The build-up and analysis is what I'm talking about here btw. The match commentaries are fine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    You're the one with the public platform. You could write an article for The Speculum that excoriates Islam and its effect on British society yet you only choose to do pseudonymously on here. Punch up for once.
    I am a humble scribe for the knapper’s gazette, but I believe an ex-PBer wrote an article about the horrors of Islamic slavery, and our hypocritical evasion of that, in the “Speculum”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    Sandpit said:

    Talking of sad change of rights, the Tour de France will no longer be on ITV. It will exclusively be on TNT behind the pay wall.

    Yes, that's a bit of a shocker.

    I always thought the ITV programming was some of the best 'sports' coverage on TV.

    They totally got that the Tour is not just about the race. Where else would you get a geology professor in between time checks for the breakaway?

    The Quest highlights of other Grand Tours are by contrast very poor.
    Cycling Tour is like a Test Match, in that there’s long periods where nothing much happens.

    The coverage is much better with eg helicopter shots of local landmarks and scenery, as well as of the Peloton.
    I think there is a crucial difference. Test Matches, the bowler is still trying to get a wickets every ball (or set up for a ball in the near future) and the batters are trying to advance the score. Tour de France, they are eating, taking piss breaks, having a chat for large portions of the "race". Now their cycling within themselves is still far above what mere mortals can ride bikes at, but they aren't actively racing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    tlg86 said:

    FF43 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FF43 said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    Politics is very self indulgent at the moment, where people make choices that they don't think have consequences. Corbyn, Farage, Brexit, anti-vaccine and anti-woke are all examples of this.
    As much as I don't hold a candle for Corbyn and his lot, he did at least get people thinking about tuition fees. Now, he absolutely didn't want to consider what it would take to change the system, but the centrist politicians have been thoroughly indulgent in terms of borrow and spend.
    I don't follow your logic. The point of tuition fees whether you agree with them or not is to reduce borrow and spend, and is an example of not being indulgent.
    They borrow and spend for the old but not the young, that's the point. And government tried to pretend that unpaid student debt didn't need to be factored in to government accounts.
    Got you. Politicians of all stripes pander to the old.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    And for best PM

    KEMI 37 34 KEIR
    NIGE 42 40 KEIR
    NIGE 41 36 KEMI
    Nigel is very marmite. Keir picks up 4,% against him compared to Kemi
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    WTF are sky thinking....TNT are the worst.

    Unlike that tour, in which the former England players Alastair Cook and Steven Finn provided commentary from a studio in the Netherlands, TNT is planning to send a team to Australia, although will also use coverage from the host broadcaster.

    Cook and Finn in that studio in Holland sucked all the life out of it. So instead, we will have wooden Cook and Finn plus totally biased Ozzy commentators who are also as thick as mince*. Woohooo. The Australian networks also love Vaughan and Swann for some unknown reason as the token Pommies.

    * Whenever I have seen Australian coverage it hasn't moved on at all. Its nothing like Sky with Broad, Morgan, Sangakkara providing really interesting and nuanced analysis.
    Morgan is particularly good as is Vaughn. You can see how they both were excellent captains. Their reading of the game is a level above. Broad has proven more objective than I expected.
    I don't think Vaughan is, not now.

    There is a window post career where you are still very much in touch with the players, the behind the scenes and the tactics. Then you have to work really hard to keep up. One way is still be involved with the coaching of the game e.g. Sangakkara, he knows all the world elite players because he coaches in the IPL, he knows their strengths and weaknesses, and he has all the behind the scenes info on what tactics are being considered, the stats they use, etc.

    Vaughan is clueless about T20 for instance, absolutely no idea what they are trying to do. BBC coverage of the Hundred is embarrassing for this reason, they didn't even know that the "meta" in T20 / Hundred is that taking the single can be net negative ev.
    Atherton is the best. Very smart, eloquent, intellectual - yet he wears it lightly and remains personable and charming. And of course has incredible insight into cricket and its history

    Possibly my favourite commentator in any sport

    The team Sky has put together is very varied and covers all the bases. They have the intellectual eloquent Atherton, a pro fronting the coverage, Ward is also very good. They can also do "fun" with short form coverage with the likes of Butcher, Cork, Dagnall. But where it really excels is they have this hardcore set of people who were elite and still absolutely in touch with the game, Eion Morgan, Broad, DK, and my favourite Sangakkara. You listen to those guys and learn something that is not obvious to normies every time.
    Yes, I entirely agree. One of the pleasures of this brilliant test series is - was! (Sob) - the Sky commentary. You turned on the telly and you had intelligent people talking to you intelligently about what you were watching, but also amiable and humorous. Likeable (Mel Jones is also good)

    That being said, I’ve been impressed by Sky’s British Lions coverage as well. Insightful and balanced, and excited by exciting sport. Just a shame the series kinda petered out in the rain
    Sky are good at all sports - as they ought to be given it's their core product and the budget they have for it.
    What they seem very good at is talent spotting. They seem to pick up really knowledge people who are good on camera / the mic, DK and Sangakkara are the best. Where as checks notes about MOTD recent hires, Wayne Rooney on £400k a year.....
    Yes. Although oddly (since it's the Big Banana) I'd say football is where they are no better than anyone else. Something about that sport seems to lend itself to cliche and trite 'patter' in the punditry. The beautiful game it is not, in that regard.

    The build-up and analysis is what I'm talking about here btw. The match commentaries are fine.
    Sky football need a clear out like they did with the cricket. When they initially hired Neville that was a bit step up, but as I said earlier there is a limited shelf life. Sky do from time to time still get people on to give real insight e.g. Graham Potter, Thierry Henry, but on the whole its very stale matey chats. TNT pundits are worse though.

    But there are videos that the likes of even supposedly dark age coaches like Sean Dyche talking about tactics and its a totally different game being explained.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,303

    Leon said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    That’s another incredible poll for Reform

    ELEVEN points ahead of Labour
    Only the third pollster to record a double digit lead after FoN and a single BMG
    Caution - they are a bit prone to larger swings poll to poll but tbf have settled down the last 3 months
    6% with today's yougov

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1952682671114440913?t=nDRK9bHnZIrjzjOI0zyrxQ&s=19
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491

    Leon said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    That’s another incredible poll for Reform

    ELEVEN points ahead of Labour
    Only the third pollster to record a double digit lead after FoN and a single BMG
    Caution - they are a bit prone to larger swings poll to poll but tbf have settled down the last 3 months
    6% with today's yougov

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1952682671114440913?t=nDRK9bHnZIrjzjOI0zyrxQ&s=19
    Far more credible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    Hilary Benn
    @hilarybennmp
    ·
    30m
    I am so sad to hear about the death of Tom Sawyer. He devoted his life to the Labour movement and, as General Secretary, did so much to help us achieve that historic victory in 1997. He was wise, thoughtful, principled, a good friend and a fine human being.
    Rest in peace, Tom.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    The 1997 New Labour generation starting to pass away.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,694

    Sandpit said:

    Talking of sad change of rights, the Tour de France will no longer be on ITV. It will exclusively be on TNT behind the pay wall.

    Yes, that's a bit of a shocker.

    I always thought the ITV programming was some of the best 'sports' coverage on TV.

    They totally got that the Tour is not just about the race. Where else would you get a geology professor in between time checks for the breakaway?

    The Quest highlights of other Grand Tours are by contrast very poor.
    Cycling Tour is like a Test Match, in that there’s long periods where nothing much happens.

    The coverage is much better with eg helicopter shots of local landmarks and scenery, as well as of the Peloton.
    I think there is a crucial difference. Test Matches, the bowler is still trying to get a wickets every ball (or set up for a ball in the near future) and the batters are trying to advance the score. Tour de France, they are eating, taking piss breaks, having a chat for large portions of the "race". Now their cycling within themselves is still far above what mere mortals can ride bikes at, but they aren't actively racing.
    There is a lot less of that then there use to be. In the 70s and 80s there were whole days when whoever was Le Patron at the time decided there would be no racing that day. Even in the one day crits and kermesse I used to race in the main contenders would occasionally negotiate a complex multilateral financial deal in the first 10k and that was it. The finishing order was decided and nobody was racing.

    Now that every minute of the race is covered on TV the pressure from sponsors is immense and if a team can't get a guy in the breakaway then the sponsors want to see the team taking a turn on the front. There is now more full gas riding than ever.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,411
    Leon said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    That’s another incredible poll for Reform

    ELEVEN points ahead of Labour
    "Leon was seconds away from ejaculating..."
  • Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186

    Leon said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    That’s another incredible poll for Reform

    ELEVEN points ahead of Labour
    Only the third pollster to record a double digit lead after FoN and a single BMG
    Caution - they are a bit prone to larger swings poll to poll but tbf have settled down the last 3 months
    6% with today's yougov

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1952682671114440913?t=nDRK9bHnZIrjzjOI0zyrxQ&s=19
    29 22 18 14 9
    Feels about the right finger in the air for a nowcast
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,353

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Don't do cake, it will affect your Shatner's Bassoon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,184

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    WTF are sky thinking....TNT are the worst.

    Unlike that tour, in which the former England players Alastair Cook and Steven Finn provided commentary from a studio in the Netherlands, TNT is planning to send a team to Australia, although will also use coverage from the host broadcaster.

    Cook and Finn in that studio in Holland sucked all the life out of it. So instead, we will have wooden Cook and Finn plus totally biased Ozzy commentators who are also as thick as mince*. Woohooo. The Australian networks also love Vaughan and Swann for some unknown reason as the token Pommies.

    * Whenever I have seen Australian coverage it hasn't moved on at all. Its nothing like Sky with Broad, Morgan, Sangakkara providing really interesting and nuanced analysis.
    Morgan is particularly good as is Vaughn. You can see how they both were excellent captains. Their reading of the game is a level above. Broad has proven more objective than I expected.
    I don't think Vaughan is, not now.

    There is a window post career where you are still very much in touch with the players, the behind the scenes and the tactics. Then you have to work really hard to keep up. One way is still be involved with the coaching of the game e.g. Sangakkara, he knows all the world elite players because he coaches in the IPL, he knows their strengths and weaknesses, and he has all the behind the scenes info on what tactics are being considered, the stats they use, etc.

    Vaughan is clueless about T20 for instance, absolutely no idea what they are trying to do. BBC coverage of the Hundred is embarrassing for this reason, they didn't even know that the "meta" in T20 / Hundred is that taking the single can be net negative ev.
    Atherton is the best. Very smart, eloquent, intellectual - yet he wears it lightly and remains personable and charming. And of course has incredible insight into cricket and its history

    Possibly my favourite commentator in any sport

    The team Sky has put together is very varied and covers all the bases. They have the intellectual eloquent Atherton, a pro fronting the coverage, Ward is also very good. They can also do "fun" with short form coverage with the likes of Butcher, Cork, Dagnall. But where it really excels is they have this hardcore set of people who were elite and still absolutely in touch with the game, Eion Morgan, Broad, DK, and my favourite Sangakkara. You listen to those guys and learn something that is not obvious to normies every time.
    Yes, I entirely agree. One of the pleasures of this brilliant test series is - was! (Sob) - the Sky commentary. You turned on the telly and you had intelligent people talking to you intelligently about what you were watching, but also amiable and humorous. Likeable (Mel Jones is also good)

    That being said, I’ve been impressed by Sky’s British Lions coverage as well. Insightful and balanced, and excited by exciting sport. Just a shame the series kinda petered out in the rain
    Sky are good at all sports - as they ought to be given it's their core product and the budget they have for it.
    What they seem very good at is talent spotting. They seem to pick up really knowledge people who are good on camera / the mic, DK and Sangakkara are the best. Where as checks notes about MOTD recent hires, Wayne Rooney on £400k a year.....
    Yes. Although oddly (since it's the Big Banana) I'd say football is where they are no better than anyone else. Something about that sport seems to lend itself to cliche and trite 'patter' in the punditry. The beautiful game it is not, in that regard.

    The build-up and analysis is what I'm talking about here btw. The match commentaries are fine.
    Sky football need a clear out like they did with the cricket. When they initially hired Neville that was a bit step up, but as I said earlier there is a limited shelf life. Sky do from time to time still get people on to give real insight e.g. Graham Potter, Thierry Henry, but on the whole its very stale matey chats. TNT pundits are worse though.

    But there are videos that the likes of even supposedly dark age coaches like Sean Dyche talking about tactics and its a totally different game being explained.
    I think the trick with recruiting pundits, in any sport, is to get those who have recently retired and who understand how things work from the inside.

    The difficulty with recruiting those, is that they usually don’t need the money at that point in their lives.

    Keeping the same guys on for more than a few years does lead to a lack of recent experience as the sport changes over time. Someone who last competed or coached two decades ago might as well be talking about a completely different sport in most cases.

    Favourite recent example, Nico Rosberg, who clearly doesn’t need the money and says whatever is on his mind, doesn’t mind if he offends anyone.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,882

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    It's actually a point I made the other day re: Woke - those doing the "protesting" can be more bigoted and offensive than those who are their targets.

    Would you like to hear the story of National Secular Society vs Hospital Chaplains at the Lincoln Hospital (not sure if it was a trust by then)?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186
    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Don't do cake, it will affect your Shatner's Bassoon.
    Just need Collins talking nonce sense and we are full on Brasseyed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    Netanyahu to propose full reoccupation of Gaza, Israeli media report

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip when he meets his security cabinet, Israeli media say.

    "The die has been cast. We're going for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip – and defeating Hamas," local journalists quote a senior official saying.

    Responding to reports that the army chief and other military leaders oppose the plan, the unnamed official said: "If that doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188

    Julian Jessop
    @julianHjessop
    ·
    1h
    ICYMI,
    @CityAM
    's shadow panel of (mostly 😉) "top economists" voted 8-1 to cut the Bank of England's key interest rate by a quarter point this week, to 4%... 👇

    (The real MPC will almost certainly do the same, though the vote may be a tad closer)

    https://x.com/julianHjessop
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538


    Julian Jessop
    @julianHjessop
    ·
    1h
    ICYMI,
    @CityAM
    's shadow panel of (mostly 😉) "top economists" voted 8-1 to cut the Bank of England's key interest rate by a quarter point this week, to 4%... 👇

    (The real MPC will almost certainly do the same, though the vote may be a tad closer)

    https://x.com/julianHjessop

    Are they like the Independent SAGE of MPC?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188

    Netanyahu to propose full reoccupation of Gaza, Israeli media report

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip when he meets his security cabinet, Israeli media say.

    "The die has been cast. We're going for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip – and defeating Hamas," local journalists quote a senior official saying.

    Responding to reports that the army chief and other military leaders oppose the plan, the unnamed official said: "If that doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo

    Translation: We have to keep this war going otherwise I might end up in jail on alleged corruption charges.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    Outrage that has not been performed does not exist, surely? :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186


    Julian Jessop
    @julianHjessop
    ·
    1h
    ICYMI,
    @CityAM
    's shadow panel of (mostly 😉) "top economists" voted 8-1 to cut the Bank of England's key interest rate by a quarter point this week, to 4%... 👇

    (The real MPC will almost certainly do the same, though the vote may be a tad closer)

    https://x.com/julianHjessop

    Are they like the Independent SAGE of MPC?
    They all consider rate cuts wearing KN95 face masks because of the symptom free inflation risk
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    And for best PM

    KEMI 37 34 KEIR
    NIGE 42 40 KEIR
    NIGE 41 36 KEMI
    The best PM numbers are probably most indicative, suggests lots of tactical voting for Starmer Labour could happen merely to keep out Reform but then some Tories could tactically vote Reform to remove Labour in return.


    Ironically Kemi leads Starmer as best PM by more than Farage, suggesting the Kemi Tories without the Reform threat would be more likely to win centrist swing voters against Labour than Farage but Farage clearly unites the right more than Kemi, hence he also beats her as best PM
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575
    edited August 5

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Your religion being cake & its consumption presumably.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,184
    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    edited August 5
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Even the Bishop of Salisbury probably doesn't believe in every verse of the Bible literally but every Imam certainly believes all the Koran is true
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,994
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,194
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    WTF are sky thinking....TNT are the worst.

    Unlike that tour, in which the former England players Alastair Cook and Steven Finn provided commentary from a studio in the Netherlands, TNT is planning to send a team to Australia, although will also use coverage from the host broadcaster.

    Cook and Finn in that studio in Holland sucked all the life out of it. So instead, we will have wooden Cook and Finn plus totally biased Ozzy commentators who are also as thick as mince*. Woohooo. The Australian networks also love Vaughan and Swann for some unknown reason as the token Pommies.

    * Whenever I have seen Australian coverage it hasn't moved on at all. Its nothing like Sky with Broad, Morgan, Sangakkara providing really interesting and nuanced analysis.
    Morgan is particularly good as is Vaughn. You can see how they both were excellent captains. Their reading of the game is a level above. Broad has proven more objective than I expected.
    I don't think Vaughan is, not now.

    There is a window post career where you are still very much in touch with the players, the behind the scenes and the tactics. Then you have to work really hard to keep up. One way is still be involved with the coaching of the game e.g. Sangakkara, he knows all the world elite players because he coaches in the IPL, he knows their strengths and weaknesses, and he has all the behind the scenes info on what tactics are being considered, the stats they use, etc.

    Vaughan is clueless about T20 for instance, absolutely no idea what they are trying to do. BBC coverage of the Hundred is embarrassing for this reason, they didn't even know that the "meta" in T20 / Hundred is that taking the single can be net negative ev.
    Atherton is the best. Very smart, eloquent, intellectual - yet he wears it lightly and remains personable and charming. And of course has incredible insight into cricket and its history

    Possibly my favourite commentator in any sport

    The team Sky has put together is very varied and covers all the bases. They have the intellectual eloquent Atherton, a pro fronting the coverage, Ward is also very good. They can also do "fun" with short form coverage with the likes of Butcher, Cork, Dagnall. But where it really excels is they have this hardcore set of people who were elite and still absolutely in touch with the game, Eion Morgan, Broad, DK, and my favourite Sangakkara. You listen to those guys and learn something that is not obvious to normies every time.
    Yes, I entirely agree. One of the pleasures of this brilliant test series is - was! (Sob) - the Sky commentary. You turned on the telly and you had intelligent people talking to you intelligently about what you were watching, but also amiable and humorous. Likeable (Mel Jones is also good)

    That being said, I’ve been impressed by Sky’s British Lions coverage as well. Insightful and balanced, and excited by exciting sport. Just a shame the series kinda petered out in the rain
    Sky are good at all sports - as they ought to be given it's their core product and the budget they have for it.
    What they seem very good at is talent spotting. They seem to pick up really knowledge people who are good on camera / the mic, DK and Sangakkara are the best. Where as checks notes about MOTD recent hires, Wayne Rooney on £400k a year.....
    Yes. Although oddly (since it's the Big Banana) I'd say football is where they are no better than anyone else. Something about that sport seems to lend itself to cliche and trite 'patter' in the punditry. The beautiful game it is not, in that regard.

    The build-up and analysis is what I'm talking about here btw. The match commentaries are fine.
    Sky football need a clear out like they did with the cricket. When they initially hired Neville that was a bit step up, but as I said earlier there is a limited shelf life. Sky do from time to time still get people on to give real insight e.g. Graham Potter, Thierry Henry, but on the whole its very stale matey chats. TNT pundits are worse though.

    But there are videos that the likes of even supposedly dark age coaches like Sean Dyche talking about tactics and its a totally different game being explained.
    I think the trick with recruiting pundits, in any sport, is to get those who have recently retired and who understand how things work from the inside.

    The difficulty with recruiting those, is that they usually don’t need the money at that point in their lives.

    Keeping the same guys on for more than a few years does lead to a lack of recent experience as the sport changes over time. Someone who last competed or coached two decades ago might as well be talking about a completely different sport in most cases.

    Favourite recent example, Nico Rosberg, who clearly doesn’t need the money and says whatever is on his mind, doesn’t mind if he offends anyone.
    The secret with pundits is to bring insight but also as you say who is interesting. Can't be too technical, can't be too prosaic. Best commentators are the aussie guys who used to do MotoGP (not sure if they still do), Alan Green (R5L footie), Joe Tessitore (Top Rank boxing), John Mac (tennis, obvs), Jim McGrath (the aussie - racing). And obviously Motty because he is part of everyone's childhood. Oh and Steve Inman (streetfights/FAFO).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    They have had 12 years of digging into everything Trump and the most they have got so far on Trump / Epstein is a birthday card (along with 100s of other famous people) when Epstein was still very much accepted among the rich and famous.

    Occum's Razor says if they were willing to go after Trump for things as minor as overstating value to loan for real estate deals if there was anything concrete against him in regards to Epstein it surely would have been deployed by now.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,882
    edited August 5
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Why are you surprised?

    Have you been on a long holiday?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,243

    Leon said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    That’s another incredible poll for Reform

    ELEVEN points ahead of Labour
    Only the third pollster to record a double digit lead after FoN and a single BMG
    Caution - they are a bit prone to larger swings poll to poll but tbf have settled down the last 3 months
    6% with today's yougov

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1952682671114440913?t=nDRK9bHnZIrjzjOI0zyrxQ&s=19
    29 22 18 14 9
    Feels about the right finger in the air for a nowcast
    I think that would likely lead to a pretty stable Reform govt with Tory C&S....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 9.3% in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020.

    This economy’s flashing warning lights.,/I>
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1952376881908453854
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186
    HYUFD said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    And for best PM

    KEMI 37 34 KEIR
    NIGE 42 40 KEIR
    NIGE 41 36 KEMI
    The best PM numbers are probably most indicative, suggests lots of tactical voting for Starmer Labour could happen merely to keep out Reform but then some Tories could tactically vote Reform to remove Labour in return.


    Ironically Kemi leads Starmer as best PM by more than Farage, suggesting the Kemi Tories without the Reform threat would be more likely to win centrist swing voters against Labour than Farage but Farage clearly unites the right more than Kemi, hence he also beats her as best PM
    Its all very tight on best PM which would probably translate to a tightening race if a GE were called right now.
    We are still very much in the holding pattern that emerged immediately after the May locals
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,994
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
    Also I am not surprised by the 47% figure. I don't quite get why the Epstein thing is so much of an issue for him. Anyone else yes, but Trump has been given a free ride on so much else, why is Epstein an issue compared to Stormy Daniels, rape, pussy grabbing, etc)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
    But still.

    Shows the strength of partisanship over there, I suppose.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Bit more polling out from Freshwater Strategy fieldwork 1-3 August (changes from 4-6 July)

    Reform 33 (+2)
    Lab 22 (-1)
    Con 18 (-1)
    LD 14 (-2)
    Grn 6 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    Your Party not prompted for but pick up 1(and abit)% in the crosstable thanks to * subsample klaxon * 13% of 18-24 y.o

    That’s another incredible poll for Reform

    ELEVEN points ahead of Labour
    Only the third pollster to record a double digit lead after FoN and a single BMG
    Caution - they are a bit prone to larger swings poll to poll but tbf have settled down the last 3 months
    6% with today's yougov

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1952682671114440913?t=nDRK9bHnZIrjzjOI0zyrxQ&s=19
    29 22 18 14 9
    Feels about the right finger in the air for a nowcast
    I think that would likely lead to a pretty stable Reform govt with Tory C&S....
    As a result yes it likely would. But I think a GE campaign tightens things up a lot. There are a lot of dissaffected and disinterested that will drag themselves out to vote.
    If Reform are to win they really want to be entering the GE campaign /final year above 30 by a couple of points or more
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
    Also I am not surprised by the 47% figure. I don't quite get why the Epstein thing is so much of an issue for him. Anyone else yes, but Trump has been given a free ride on so much else, why is Epstein an issue compared to Stormy Daniels, rape, pussy grabbing, etc)
    It's the underage aspect, I think.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,194

    Netanyahu to propose full reoccupation of Gaza, Israeli media report

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip when he meets his security cabinet, Israeli media say.

    "The die has been cast. We're going for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip – and defeating Hamas," local journalists quote a senior official saying.

    Responding to reports that the army chief and other military leaders oppose the plan, the unnamed official said: "If that doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo

    Translation: We have to keep this war going otherwise I might end up in jail on alleged corruption charges.
    Many respected commentators wonder out loud what's going on. Andrew Fox identifies Hamas' overwhelming victory in the PR battle and believes the US-inspired strategy should be ignored and that Israel should declare a "standstill" ceasefire - ie say it is ceasing ops and just go firm where it is, not letting any reconstruction materials in and flooding the place with humanitarian aid [to whom it would go is another question]; Seth Frantzman, meanwhile, wonders out loud every week what on earth the IDF is doing re-conquering parts of Gaza it won and then abandoned/moved on from six months ago.

    As for Bibi's get out of jail card it's tricky. You will see that huge images are being projected onto billboards in Times Square depicting the starved hostage being kept by Hamas. Israel has long had a no man left behind policy and it would be difficult for any Israeli PM to abandon that image and the campaign.

    So I suppose "total conquest" is as bad an option as any other.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,882
    edited August 5
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Even the Bishop of Salisbury probably doesn't believe in every verse of the Bible literally but every Imam certainly believes all the Koran is true
    I don't think that holds. There are multiple schools and traditions of Islamic thought and interpretation, including secularised and liberal ones. And there is no one minister or individual who can authoritatively declare "this is what the Koran says", any more than they can for the Bible *. It's about a continuing, developing tradition, debate, and synthesis which grows over time in a human community.

    There's also considerable leeway in the definitions of "believes" and "true".

    * For clarity, I do not accept the 'Papal Pretentions' to 'Infallibility when ruling Ex Cathedra' etc. As an ecumenical question in its real meaning, I view them as a secondary elaboration of truth, and so something above my pay grade that I do not propose to spend my life worrying about.

    In the words of Amazing Grace, if I am (possibly) going to have 10,000 years to worry about them later on, then I'm happy to delay any debate about Papal Pretensions for that point, along with angels in pinheads, and double predestination !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,184
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    Nigelb said:

    New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 9.3% in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020.

    This economy’s flashing warning lights.,/I>
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1952376881908453854

    Lies. All lies. Sack the person who compiled these figures.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    They have had 12 years of digging into everything Trump and the most they have got so far on Trump / Epstein is a birthday card (along with 100s of other famous people) when Epstein was still very much accepted among the rich and famous.

    Occum's Razor says if they were willing to go after Trump for things as minor as overstating value to loan for real estate deals if there was anything concrete against him in regards to Epstein it surely would have been deployed by now.
    There is, and long has been, more linking Trump and Epstein than the recent Wall Street Journal story about a birthday card. Indeed, the WSJ story would have been a nothingburger if Trump hadn't denied it and sued them for $10 billion. They were good friends for many years. Trump's famous quotation about Epstein ("It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.") has been there since being published in an interview in 2002.

    Occam's Razor (or Ockham's Razor) is named after William of Ockham (also spelt Occam).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    US citizen released after being detained by ICE agents on her way to work in downtown Los Angeles

    https://www.presstelegram.com/2025/06/26/u-s-citizen-released-on-bond-after-ice-agents-detained-her-on-her-way-to-work-in-downtown-los-angeles/
    A U.S. citizen who was arrested by immigration agents on her way to work earlier this week was released on bond Thursday, June 26, at a federal courthouse in Los Angeles.

    Andrea Velez’s sister and mom had dropped the marketing designer off for work Tuesday in downtown L.A. moments before masked agents detained her as part of an immigration raid in the area. In the moments after they dropped her off, Velez’s family watched agents grab her arm, push her to the ground and carry her away, leaving her bruised...


    They have charged her with assault.

    new video shows the ICE agent who claimed he was randomly "assaulted" by this 4'11" US citizen on her way to work is shown literally picking her up and carrying her away.
    https://x.com/David_J_Bier/status/1952401443631051128
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491
    Nigelb said:

    New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 9.3% in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020.

    This economy’s flashing warning lights.,/I>
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1952376881908453854

    We'll miss these stats on the US economy when they're gone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,051

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    They have had 12 years of digging into everything Trump and the most they have got so far on Trump / Epstein is a birthday card (along with 100s of other famous people) when Epstein was still very much accepted among the rich and famous.

    Occum's Razor says if they were willing to go after Trump for things as minor as overstating value to loan for real estate deals if there was anything concrete against him in regards to Epstein it surely would have been deployed by now.
    There is, and long has been, more linking Trump and Epstein than the recent Wall Street Journal story about a birthday card. Indeed, the WSJ story would have been a nothingburger if Trump hadn't denied it and sued them for $10 billion. They were good friends for many years. Trump's famous quotation about Epstein ("It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.") has been there since being published in an interview in 2002.

    Occam's Razor (or Ockham's Razor) is named after William of Ockham (also spelt Occam).
    As anyone who has read The Name of the Rose by Umberto Eco would know (and anyone who hasn't should, its brilliant).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,186

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Your religion being cake & its consumption presumably.
    No, cake is my filthy sin. And I love it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
    Also I am not surprised by the 47% figure. I don't quite get why the Epstein thing is so much of an issue for him. Anyone else yes, but Trump has been given a free ride on so much else, why is Epstein an issue compared to Stormy Daniels, rape, pussy grabbing, etc)
    Try this: https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2025/Senate/Maps/Aug04.html#item-1

    Basically, Trump played to and benefitted from conspiracy theories like QAnon that believe in a paedophile cabal ruling the world. Trump was meant to bring down this cabal. So when Trump and his administration turned around and said, "Nothing to see here," the people who were shocked were not the usual people who already hate Trump, it was some of his own most hardcore supporters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 9.3% in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020.

    This economy’s flashing warning lights.,/I>
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1952376881908453854

    We'll miss these stats on the US economy when they're gone.
    Not gone - they'll just be gently massaged.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,882
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    The plot of his next book is on 17349 Post It notes stuck to the wall, and he can't see the comforting deep blue of the boudoir.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,216
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Electric pram???

    Mental
    Rock-a-bye-bye-baby?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,184
    edited August 5
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans. Bill Clinton was almost certainly a lot more involved with Epstein.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,051

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Your religion being cake & its consumption presumably.
    No, that would be me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Even the Bishop of Salisbury probably doesn't believe in every verse of the Bible literally but every Imam certainly believes all the Koran is true
    I don't think that holds. There are multiple schools and traditions of Islamic thought and interpretation, including secularised and liberal ones. And there is no one minister or individual who can authoritatively declare "this is what the Koran says", any more than they can for the Bible *. It's about a continuing, developing tradition, debate, and synthesis which grows over time in a human community.

    There's also considerable leeway in the definitions of "believes" and "true".

    * For clarity, I do not accept the 'Papal Pretentions' to 'Infallibility when ruling Ex Cathedra' etc. As an ecumenical question in its real meaning, I view them as a secondary elaboration of truth, and so something above my pay grade that I do not propose to spend my life worrying about.

    In the words of Amazing Grace, if I am (possibly) going to have 10,000 years to worry about them later on, then I'm happy to delay any debate about Papal Pretensions for that point, along with angels in pinheads, and double predestination !
    You might get a few liberal Islamic academics but the vast majority of Mosques and Imams worldwide are conservative and orthodox.

    While Christianity ranges from relative liberals like Methodists, Lutherans, Church of Scotland and Quakers and most Anglicans through more conservative Roman Catholics (with a few liberal RCs too) based on Papal infallibility as you say through to very conservative orthodox evangelical Baptists or Pentecostals or Free Church and the Eastern Orthodox church
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    TOPPING said:

    Netanyahu to propose full reoccupation of Gaza, Israeli media report

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip when he meets his security cabinet, Israeli media say.

    "The die has been cast. We're going for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip – and defeating Hamas," local journalists quote a senior official saying.

    Responding to reports that the army chief and other military leaders oppose the plan, the unnamed official said: "If that doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo

    Translation: We have to keep this war going otherwise I might end up in jail on alleged corruption charges.
    Many respected commentators wonder out loud what's going on. Andrew Fox identifies Hamas' overwhelming victory in the PR battle and believes the US-inspired strategy should be ignored and that Israel should declare a "standstill" ceasefire - ie say it is ceasing ops and just go firm where it is, not letting any reconstruction materials in and flooding the place with humanitarian aid [to whom it would go is another question]; Seth Frantzman, meanwhile, wonders out loud every week what on earth the IDF is doing re-conquering parts of Gaza it won and then abandoned/moved on from six months ago.

    As for Bibi's get out of jail card it's tricky. You will see that huge images are being projected onto billboards in Times Square depicting the starved hostage being kept by Hamas. Israel has long had a no man left behind policy and it would be difficult for any Israeli PM to abandon that image and the campaign.

    So I suppose "total conquest" is as bad an option as any other.
    I Do Not Support Netanyahu or his government.

    But

    He is already so far down the outrage tunnel that from his perspective it makes sense to finish the job. When they say "occupy Gaza" they do not mean with the remaining population extant. They will be moved - I suspect rounded up and shipped to the West Bank.

    An action which is of course unquestionably illegal under international law. So we would get to stop arguing with the people denying this is genocide because at that point it patently is.

    The next question is what the end game could be. Would the West Bank be next?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    edited August 5
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
    But still.

    Shows the strength of partisanship over there, I suppose.
    Even Barry Goldwater got 38% in 1964 v LBJ, even Alf Landon got 36% in 1936 against FDR, no Republican candidate for President has ever got less than 30%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    They have had 12 years of digging into everything Trump and the most they have got so far on Trump / Epstein is a birthday card (along with 100s of other famous people) when Epstein was still very much accepted among the rich and famous.

    Occum's Razor says if they were willing to go after Trump for things as minor as overstating value to loan for real estate deals if there was anything concrete against him in regards to Epstein it surely would have been deployed by now.
    There is, and long has been, more linking Trump and Epstein than the recent Wall Street Journal story about a birthday card. Indeed, the WSJ story would have been a nothingburger if Trump hadn't denied it and sued them for $10 billion. They were good friends for many years. Trump's famous quotation about Epstein ("It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.") has been there since being published in an interview in 2002.

    Occam's Razor (or Ockham's Razor) is named after William of Ockham (also spelt Occam).
    But that isn't new news. Epstein had befriended all the rich and famous e.g Peter Mandelson was very friendly with as he called him "Petie". My point was if they had something absolute killer, I believe it would have come out.

    Of course Trump's reaction to everything is to lie and "I'll sue you". That's what he does to every story that is negative.

    My guess is there is probably more embarrassing type stories like the birthday card, but will also highlight just how all these other people were just the same.

    The problem is Trump has really leaned into the worst of the conspiracy theories about Epstein, can't deliver what the cult want and is probably on plenty of bits of paper that says he was at an event where Epstein was.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    47% of Republicans is less than 30% of voters in the US overall, so that is still Democratic landslide territory
    Also I am not surprised by the 47% figure. I don't quite get why the Epstein thing is so much of an issue for him. Anyone else yes, but Trump has been given a free ride on so much else, why is Epstein an issue compared to Stormy Daniels, rape, pussy grabbing, etc)
    It's the underage aspect, I think.
    That didn't stop the hardcore Trump supporters saying Matt Gaetz was a good choice for Attorney General. They weren't worried about the stories of Trump going backstage at the teenage beauty contest he bought. No, it's more than that. It's that Epstein fit the QAnon/pizzagate conspiracy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans. Bill Clinton was almost certainly a lot more involved with Epstein.
    Bill Clinton was almost certainly not a lot more involved with Epstein. Clinton did know Epstein, but Trump and Epstein were best buds for years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans.
    Actually that's not entirely true.
    There are quite a number of Dems who say release everything, whether it damns Republicans or Democrats. As do, to be fair, some in the GOP.

    I don't think there would be more than a small number of Democrats who would support one of their leaders, "even if they were linked to Epstein's sex activities".
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,747
    MattW said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    The plot of his next book is on 17349 Post It notes stuck to the wall, and he can't see the comforting deep blue of the boudoir.
    Ooh, me too - I also equate Islam with Christianity, astrology, phrenology and a belief in fairies or that men can become women simply by declaring themselves so. The only difference being the adherents ofmost of these beliefs don't tend to carry out murders in support of their chosen belief
    I don't really mock these beliefs. Cos that would be rude. But I don't see them as any different in terms of unlikeliness.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans. Bill Clinton was almost certainly a lot more involved with Epstein.
    Bill Clinton was almost certainly not a lot more involved with Epstein. Clinton did know Epstein, but Trump and Epstein were best buds for years.
    Who knows ?

    "Almost certainly" just means a partisan judgment; unless you've actually seen all the unreleased files there's no way to be anywhere near "certain".

    There's plenty of circumstantial evidence for both their relationships.
    It's the nature of those relationships that's not entirely clear.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,194
    edited August 5

    TOPPING said:

    Netanyahu to propose full reoccupation of Gaza, Israeli media report

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip when he meets his security cabinet, Israeli media say.

    "The die has been cast. We're going for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip – and defeating Hamas," local journalists quote a senior official saying.

    Responding to reports that the army chief and other military leaders oppose the plan, the unnamed official said: "If that doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo

    Translation: We have to keep this war going otherwise I might end up in jail on alleged corruption charges.
    Many respected commentators wonder out loud what's going on. Andrew Fox identifies Hamas' overwhelming victory in the PR battle and believes the US-inspired strategy should be ignored and that Israel should declare a "standstill" ceasefire - ie say it is ceasing ops and just go firm where it is, not letting any reconstruction materials in and flooding the place with humanitarian aid [to whom it would go is another question]; Seth Frantzman, meanwhile, wonders out loud every week what on earth the IDF is doing re-conquering parts of Gaza it won and then abandoned/moved on from six months ago.

    As for Bibi's get out of jail card it's tricky. You will see that huge images are being projected onto billboards in Times Square depicting the starved hostage being kept by Hamas. Israel has long had a no man left behind policy and it would be difficult for any Israeli PM to abandon that image and the campaign.

    So I suppose "total conquest" is as bad an option as any other.
    I Do Not Support Netanyahu or his government.

    But

    He is already so far down the outrage tunnel that from his perspective it makes sense to finish the job. When they say "occupy Gaza" they do not mean with the remaining population extant. They will be moved - I suspect rounded up and shipped to the West Bank.

    An action which is of course unquestionably illegal under international law. So we would get to stop arguing with the people denying this is genocide because at that point it patently is.

    The next question is what the end game could be. Would the West Bank be next?
    (One of) the mooted options is as I say a "standstill" ceasefire which just stops everything in its tracks. Withdraw to Gaza's borders which are then strongly fortified and let in aid only (but a lot of it). Only military action is defensive. Announce that Israel is ready to work with international partners to create a brighter future for Gaza but only once the hostages are released and Hamas relinquishes power.

    Not the worst plan in the world.

    As it stands, no Israeli PM would "ignore" the fact that hostages remain in Gaza.

    As for the West Bank, I note that the UK's MOU on the matter recognises the 1967 borders as the basis for recognising a Palestinian state. Interesting that if land acquired by conquest is no longer allowed as per UN 2334 then surely that brings into question many territories that were historically acquired via conflict. Not to say it's right or wrong but it's interesting that they should believe that these territories are illegitimate.

    ETA: plus you've gotta love the Lab govt. In the MOU on the proposed recognition of a Palestinian State it also dedicates a paragraph to "Climate change". Bless.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Your religion being cake & its consumption presumably.
    No, cake is my filthy sin. And I love it.
    Do what thou wilt
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    As Ministers double down on saying Nigel Farage’s opposition to online age verification measures enables modern Jimmy Saviles, our polling finds by more than a 3-1 margin the public think Peter Kyle’s suggestion Farage was on the side of people like Savile was inappropriate

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1952697395596186066

    I can't remember the polling numbers when Boris tried this angle on Starmer, but I imagine it was probably the same. Even the terrorist best mate angle didn't work on Corbyn the first time around, he had to really put his put in it and the media to become obsessed by it to make that attack work the second time around. The British public don't really seem to like this kind of stuff. Laughing at people eating bacon sandwiches weirdly or wearing baseball caps seem to be what can do for your political career though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,447
    Just wait for Model Y

    @FT

    Sales of Tesla’s electric vehicles plummeted 60% in the UK last month amid a broader slump in European demand, with Chinese rival BYD surging

    https://x.com/FT/status/1952710861560197213
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    An example of the indulgent politics where people don't think choices have consequences:

    A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK ...

    When presented economy vs immigration trade-offs, Britons typically opt for economic benefit over lower migration

    Those who support requiring large nos of migrants to leave would pick fully staffing NHS over reducing immigration, but economic arguments hold less sway


    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lvnbca3glc2f
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    FF43 said:

    An example of the indulgent politics where people don't think choices have consequences:

    A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK ...

    When presented economy vs immigration trade-offs, Britons typically opt for economic benefit over lower migration

    Those who support requiring large nos of migrants to leave would pick fully staffing NHS over reducing immigration, but economic arguments hold less sway


    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lvnbca3glc2f

    It is why I am always slightly wary of putting too much emphasis on how well an individual policy polls. I am not convinced people really think that deeply about them as they are going through 27,000 questions to get their £50 gift card in 3 months.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans. Bill Clinton was almost certainly a lot more involved with Epstein.
    Bill Clinton was almost certainly not a lot more involved with Epstein. Clinton did know Epstein, but Trump and Epstein were best buds for years.
    Who knows ?

    "Almost certainly" just means a partisan judgment; unless you've actually seen all the unreleased files there's no way to be anywhere near "certain".

    There's plenty of circumstantial evidence for both their relationships.
    It's the nature of those relationships that's not entirely clear.
    Epstein described himself as Trump's "closest friend for 10 years." Existing, in public documentation and video evidence have long demonstrated that Epstein and Trump were close friends for many years. (This article covers some of it: https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU08/20250227/117951/HHRG-119-JU08-20250227-SD006-U6.pdf ) There isn't the same to show a comparable friendship between Epstein and Clinton.

    That doesn't mean Trump knew of Epstein's criminality, or that Clinton knew. It is possible that Clinton was involved in shady stuff with Epstein and Trump wasn't, or vice versa. I'm not making any such claims. But it is very clear that Trump and Epstein were best buds for years.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,247
    edited August 5
    PJH said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    In London I guess if you offered the Tories loss of Bexley and Bromley to NOC (but remaining largest party?) in return for holding Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and regaining Westminster and having a tilt at either Barnet or Wandsworth they'd 'bank"
    Holding at an historically low level is not really shooting for the stars of course
    I could see the Conservatives, like the LDs, being pushed out of many London Boroughs completely and their councillor numbers concentrated in just five or six areas.
    They're already zeroed in Barking, Haringey, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Richmond, islington

    Ealing, Greenwich, Tower Hamlets look ripe for extinction

    Edit - and Kingston
    Growing up in Kingston, when the Tories had 40 out of 50 councillors and seemed unassailable, that would have seemed impossible back then. And yet it is quite possible. Mind boggling.
    In 2014 the Tories had 39 out of 54 Councillors on Richmond Council.
    Now they have zero.
    Labour also have zero.
    Times are changing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    If you had a larger brain then you'd understand that refurbing a smaller flat (lke a one bed flat) is actually harder, in significant ways, than a bigger place

    If a bedroom is out of action, you have no nowhere to sleep. If the living room is being done up, where do you put the shifted furniture? You have to block the kitchen...

    And so on

    I estimate, with some expertise, that the IQ required to grasp this is 113. Oh well, we can always talk about cycling in France
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,077
    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    I just don't see a Reform Government as likely any more than I seriously thought the Alliance would win power in the 1980s. I suspect "the boats" won't have the salience in 2028/9 it (or they) do now. Someone will come up with something to reduce the numbers crossing and with more asylum cases being dealt with and legal immigration falling due to changes (and let's give credit where it's due) introduced by Sunak and Cleverly, it may be immigration isn't the issue then it is now.

    We also know Reform's "programme" is likely to fall apart quicker than the England tail end (too soon?) once it's out in the public domain and Farage will be spending the campaign trying to either a) defend the inconsistencies and/or b) rebutting accusations about what his candidates tweeted in 2010 about (you can fill in the rest yourself).

    Reform could perhaps win because the other parties will get in each other's way but we know there's a strong anti-Farage sentiment out there which can be effectively mobilised but that's the only way I can see it happening.
    A very interesting set of points. It seems to me both politics and betting wise there are a series of related, linked but different questions to pose about Reform's prospects.

    The three big questions are:
    On what manifesto will they campaign, apart from the obvious closed borders/migration one? (Manifestos and campaigns can't just ignore issues like tax, spend, debt, deficit, economics, industrial policy.)
    Can they come first sufficiently well as to be able to form a government?
    And, by far the least addressed and most important one: How will they actually govern WRT actions, policy and competence?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,284
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Netanyahu to propose full reoccupation of Gaza, Israeli media report

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip when he meets his security cabinet, Israeli media say.

    "The die has been cast. We're going for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip – and defeating Hamas," local journalists quote a senior official saying.

    Responding to reports that the army chief and other military leaders oppose the plan, the unnamed official said: "If that doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo

    Translation: We have to keep this war going otherwise I might end up in jail on alleged corruption charges.
    Many respected commentators wonder out loud what's going on. Andrew Fox identifies Hamas' overwhelming victory in the PR battle and believes the US-inspired strategy should be ignored and that Israel should declare a "standstill" ceasefire - ie say it is ceasing ops and just go firm where it is, not letting any reconstruction materials in and flooding the place with humanitarian aid [to whom it would go is another question]; Seth Frantzman, meanwhile, wonders out loud every week what on earth the IDF is doing re-conquering parts of Gaza it won and then abandoned/moved on from six months ago.

    As for Bibi's get out of jail card it's tricky. You will see that huge images are being projected onto billboards in Times Square depicting the starved hostage being kept by Hamas. Israel has long had a no man left behind policy and it would be difficult for any Israeli PM to abandon that image and the campaign.

    So I suppose "total conquest" is as bad an option as any other.
    I Do Not Support Netanyahu or his government.

    But

    He is already so far down the outrage tunnel that from his perspective it makes sense to finish the job. When they say "occupy Gaza" they do not mean with the remaining population extant. They will be moved - I suspect rounded up and shipped to the West Bank.

    An action which is of course unquestionably illegal under international law. So we would get to stop arguing with the people denying this is genocide because at that point it patently is.

    The next question is what the end game could be. Would the West Bank be next?
    (One of) the mooted options is as I say a "standstill" ceasefire which just stops everything in its tracks. Withdraw to Gaza's borders which are then strongly fortified and let in aid only (but a lot of it). Only military action is defensive. Announce that Israel is ready to work with international partners to create a brighter future for Gaza but only once the hostages are released and Hamas relinquishes power.

    Not the worst plan in the world.

    As it stands, no Israeli PM would "ignore" the fact that hostages remain in Gaza.

    As for the West Bank, I note that the UK's MOU on the matter recognises the 1967 borders as the basis for recognising a Palestinian state. Interesting that if land acquired by conquest is no longer allowed as per UN 2334 then surely that brings into question many territories that were historically acquired via conflict. Not to say it's right or wrong but it's interesting that they should believe that these territories are illegitimate.

    ETA: plus you've gotta love the Lab govt. In the MOU on the proposed recognition of a Palestinian State it also dedicates a paragraph to "Climate change". Bless.
    Annexation by Right of Conquest certainly *was* a principle of International Law, and perhaps it ought still to be. If a State conquered territory, the principle imposed an obligation upon that State to govern it effectively.

    The difficulty for Israel would be that if the West Bank is now part of Israel, its inhabitants are entitled to Israeli citizenship.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    Scott_xP said:

    Just wait for Model Y

    @FT

    Sales of Tesla’s electric vehicles plummeted 60% in the UK last month amid a broader slump in European demand, with Chinese rival BYD surging

    https://x.com/FT/status/1952710861560197213

    *giggles* you think sales just drop back to their previous pattern following months of supply outage? It'll be bumpy for the rest of the quarter.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,868
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    If you had a larger brain then you'd understand that refurbing a smaller flat (lke a one bed flat) is actually harder, in significant ways, than a bigger place

    If a bedroom is out of action, you have no nowhere to sleep. If the living room is being done up, where do you put the shifted furniture? You have to block the kitchen...

    And so on

    I estimate, with some expertise, that the IQ required to grasp this is 113. Oh well, we can always talk about cycling in France
    We are sorting out twin As kitchen

    Which means - new kitchen is in back room, kitchen utensils mainly upstairs but some are in front room. Front room has rest of utensils and (because of last nights wind, the old cooker).

    Emptying out one room has large knock on effects even if you do have space
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans. Bill Clinton was almost certainly a lot more involved with Epstein.
    Bill Clinton was almost certainly not a lot more involved with Epstein. Clinton did know Epstein, but Trump and Epstein were best buds for years.
    Highly questionable

    Evidence from flight logs shows that Bill Clinton flew on Epstein's "Lolita Express" private jet at least 26 times. Trump flew 7 times
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    edited August 5
    The thing with Epstein that nobody seems to piece together is his money. He was a 2 bit con man who taught in school without a degree than worked a lowish level financial scam that he got out of before the authorities swept in. He could be a millionaire out of it, but then he was suddenly a billionaire.

    Initially I presumed he was just a massive conman and we would find out that all these assets weren't actually his, he didn't really have the sort of money he told people and when he did make these donations they were actually other people's money being either siphoned off or using him as a middle man so to keep their name off paperwork.

    But it seems like he actually had somehow acquired this vast wealth in his name.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    If you had a larger brain then you'd understand that refurbing a smaller flat (lke a one bed flat) is actually harder, in significant ways, than a bigger place

    If a bedroom is out of action, you have no nowhere to sleep. If the living room is being done up, where do you put the shifted furniture? You have to block the kitchen...

    And so on

    I estimate, with some expertise, that the IQ required to grasp this is 113. Oh well, we can always talk about cycling in France
    We are sorting out twin As kitchen

    Which means - new kitchen is in back room, kitchen utensils mainly upstairs but some are in front room. Front room has rest of utensils and (because of last nights wind, the old cooker).

    Emptying out one room has large knock on effects even if you do have space
    Ah god. Redoing a kitchen is a fecking mare! Thankfully mine was done a few years back and looks fine. Likewise the bathroom. It's everything ELSE that needs doing

    I've come back to a beautifully repainted hall and entrance, but it means all the halllway furniture is stacked in the living room, and all the framed photos likewise, plus lots more trivial chaos - tins of paint for retouching, a new intercom that's not quite fixed - blah blah. I have to reorder photos for the frames, get a handyman in to rehang them...

    Very boring, and requires lots of grunt work. I'm having a cup of tea and a PB natter before I set to, again



  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,247

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    You're an out and out liberal.
    You'd be welcomed in the Liberal Democrats.
    I'd welcome you anyway.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    edited August 5

    FF43 said:

    An example of the indulgent politics where people don't think choices have consequences:

    A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK ...

    When presented economy vs immigration trade-offs, Britons typically opt for economic benefit over lower migration

    Those who support requiring large nos of migrants to leave would pick fully staffing NHS over reducing immigration, but economic arguments hold less sway


    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lvnbca3glc2f

    It is why I am always slightly wary of putting too much emphasis on how well an individual policy polls. I am not convinced people really think that deeply about them as they are going through 27,000 questions to get their £50 gift card in 3 months.
    I think there's an genuine policy disconnect here and not just superficial polling issues. Politicians with a good prospect of power are promoting immigration freezes (Farage) or repatriation (Jenrick) based on wilful denial of the consequences. People would not accept those consequences per the polling, but the important point is they also don't reckon those consequences exist.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,882
    Scott_xP said:

    Just wait for Model Y

    @FT

    Sales of Tesla’s electric vehicles plummeted 60% in the UK last month amid a broader slump in European demand, with Chinese rival BYD surging

    https://x.com/FT/status/1952710861560197213

    That's quite serious as it is July to July not June to July.

    May we hear from our Tesla correspondent in due course *?

    * I just noticed his number plate, which says he is Just a Get. Hmmm.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,538
    Jeremy Corbyn has attacked his former Labour colleague Angela Rayner for signing off the sale of eight allotments since the general election. Writing in the Telegraph, external, keen allotmenteer Corbyn extolled the "joy of digging ground for potatoes" and warned that sales made "the future of these precious spaces even more perilous".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3dpkvkkjjno

    After writing in the Telegraph, Jezza must have had to spend the rest of the day bathing himself in Dettol.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,194
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    If you had a larger brain then you'd understand that refurbing a smaller flat (lke a one bed flat) is actually harder, in significant ways, than a bigger place

    If a bedroom is out of action, you have no nowhere to sleep. If the living room is being done up, where do you put the shifted furniture? You have to block the kitchen...

    And so on

    I estimate, with some expertise, that the IQ required to grasp this is 113. Oh well, we can always talk about cycling in France
    We are sorting out twin As kitchen

    Which means - new kitchen is in back room, kitchen utensils mainly upstairs but some are in front room. Front room has rest of utensils and (because of last nights wind, the old cooker).

    Emptying out one room has large knock on effects even if you do have space
    Ah god. Redoing a kitchen is a fecking mare! Thankfully mine was done a few years back and looks fine. Likewise the bathroom. It's everything ELSE that needs doing

    I've come back to a beautifully repainted hall and entrance, but it means all the halllway furniture is stacked in the living room, and all the framed photos likewise, plus lots more trivial chaos - tins of paint for retouching, a new intercom that's not quite fixed - blah blah. I have to reorder photos for the frames, get a handyman in to rehang them...

    Very boring, and requires lots of grunt work. I'm having a cup of tea and a PB natter before I set to, again



    Get a handyman to rehang them are you insane.

    Plus photos on the wall? Didn't see you as one of those smiling peasants on the wall of an agreeable north west London apartment types. Or perhaps you are.

    Or are the photos of family groups or Guilin or the wheatfields of Arizona.

    You want to get yourself some proper art.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,447
    Also, this guy is really fucking sharp...

    @atrupar.com‬

    TRUMP: I got the highest in the history of TX, a record that won't be beat unless I run again

    CNBC: Are you going to run again?

    T: Probably not. I'd like to. I have the best poll numbers I ever had.

    C: Among Republicans

    T: No. I'm talking about generally.

    C: Polls have you down in the 30s
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm slightly shocked by this.

    47% of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were linked to Epstein's sex activities, according to Leger.
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1952550402580263100

    The prevailing view appears to be that if there was any actual scandal linking Trump and Epstein, it would have been bought up by the Harris campaign last year.
    Prevailing with whom ?
    People who voted for Trump.

    The opposition spent a decade throwing anything they could at him, and never mentioned Epstein until five minutes ago.

    That said, there’s plenty of Republicans who are upset at the lack of disclosure regarding Epstein, and think there’s a cover-up of some sort going on.
    No indeed - it was Trump who went on about releasing all the files, along with his team at the DOJ and the FBI.
    And then suddenly pulled a 180.
    Oh indeed, which is why so many of his supporters are upset with him at the moment.

    Dems don’t care about the issue except as a lever to divide Republicans. Bill Clinton was almost certainly a lot more involved with Epstein.
    Bill Clinton was almost certainly not a lot more involved with Epstein. Clinton did know Epstein, but Trump and Epstein were best buds for years.
    Who knows ?

    "Almost certainly" just means a partisan judgment; unless you've actually seen all the unreleased files there's no way to be anywhere near "certain".

    There's plenty of circumstantial evidence for both their relationships.
    It's the nature of those relationships that's not entirely clear.
    This might go beyond "circumstantial"

    Here's a verified photo of one of Epstein's girls (she became an accuser) giving Bill Clinton a massage in 2002. No one denies what we are seeing here

    "Fact Check: Real photo shows Epstein accuser Chauntae Davies giving Bill Clinton shoulder massage in 2002"

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/fact-check-real-photo-shows-130000750.html

    I note that this was part of a private jet jaunt with two other guests, one of them Kevin Spacey

    You don't have to be the World's Grassy Knolliest Conspiracy Theorist to suspect that the highly libidinous Bill Clinton (himself publicly accused of rape, like Trump) "made the best" of his friendship with Epstein
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,217

    Leon said:

    a

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    No I am an equal opportunities sneerer. No Gods, no ghosts, simples.
    When I see you loudly mocking the Prophet outside Bradford Central Mosque, as you would happily mock Jesus outside Salisbury Cathedral, then I’ll believe you
    Alan is well known for his protest on the cathedral steps ?
    Who knew.
    I doubt that very much - he's "No Offence" Alan.

    Meanwhile Leon again demonstrates his remarkable ability to find a 'BadMuslim' angle in almost any topic raised. The cause might be ignoble but you have to admire the imagination and commitment brought to it each and every day.
    While I reject all religion, I’ve always found the idea of protesting about people’s religion to their face weird.

    Religious belief, like nationalism, is not logical. It’s a part of people’s core identities. Attacking it is rather futile and definitely quite rude.
    I profoundly disagree. I’m religious but I’m happy for my religion to be mocked, attacked, reviled. My faith can stand it. And God doesn’t give a fuck

    The right to mock and satirise religion was one of the crucial victories of the Enlightenment, which is why the fact we are rolling it back (with de facto blasphemy laws) is so tragic and dangerous

    Same goes for nationalism. You must be allowed to mock it otherwise it gets out of hand and the intolerant nationalist zealots dominate. See Scotland
    It is a bit of both. Attacking someones choice of religion to their face is rude and weird. Rude and weird should not be illegal (unless in the extreme where it could be harrassment if persistent and targeted). And if God does care what us little plebs think then it is Him/Her/Them that is a bit weird, particularly given they allegedly created and designed us.
    I mean i couldn't give a shit what anyone thinks of my religious beliefs. I don't proselytise either. Mockers can press their noses against the window with their 'you suck' banners in hand and I'll just have some cake.
    Your religion being cake & its consumption presumably.
    No, cake is my filthy sin. And I love it.
    Say three Hail Marys after each slice and the calories don't count.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It is notable how atheist/secular lefties will brutally mock the “ridiculous” beliefs of anyone - catholics to Mormons to UFOlogists - but then suddenly go all quiet and respectful when it comes to the “ridiculous” beliefs of Islam

    Almost a kind of “two tier sneering”

    As an atheist/secular rightie I'm equally happy to mock all ridiculous beliefs.

    However we don't have many people spouting Islamic bullshit on this site to ridicule. If we did, there'd be more mockery.

    Mocking people behind their back when they're not being ridiculous to you just isn't fun.
    As I’ve said before, you are an honourable exception to this rule. You are indeed happy to mock any and every belief

    However I don’t really class you as a lefty
    I'd be quite shocked if you did.
    Well you are quite Woke, but we all have our faults

    And now I must crack on with the day. My flat is in turmoil as stage 2 of the Great Refurb unfolds

    Later!
    You have a one bedroom flat for crying out loud. How can you be in turmoil?
    If you had a larger brain then you'd understand that refurbing a smaller flat (lke a one bed flat) is actually harder, in significant ways, than a bigger place

    If a bedroom is out of action, you have no nowhere to sleep. If the living room is being done up, where do you put the shifted furniture? You have to block the kitchen...

    And so on

    I estimate, with some expertise, that the IQ required to grasp this is 113. Oh well, we can always talk about cycling in France
    We are sorting out twin As kitchen

    Which means - new kitchen is in back room, kitchen utensils mainly upstairs but some are in front room. Front room has rest of utensils and (because of last nights wind, the old cooker).

    Emptying out one room has large knock on effects even if you do have space
    Ah god. Redoing a kitchen is a fecking mare! Thankfully mine was done a few years back and looks fine. Likewise the bathroom. It's everything ELSE that needs doing

    I've come back to a beautifully repainted hall and entrance, but it means all the halllway furniture is stacked in the living room, and all the framed photos likewise, plus lots more trivial chaos - tins of paint for retouching, a new intercom that's not quite fixed - blah blah. I have to reorder photos for the frames, get a handyman in to rehang them...

    Very boring, and requires lots of grunt work. I'm having a cup of tea and a PB natter before I set to, again



    Get a handyman to rehang them are you insane.

    Plus photos on the wall? Didn't see you as one of those smiling peasants on the wall of an agreeable north west London apartment types. Or perhaps you are.

    Or are the photos of family groups or Guilin or the wheatfields of Arizona.

    You want to get yourself some proper art.
    After 37 years of constant travel I have some bloody amazing photos - if I say so myself - as good as any art, and far more meaningful to me. Seeing them pleases me, and reminds me of a life richly lived (and more to come, one hopes)

    My whole flat is adorned with them, so it's also a decorative leitmotif
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    An example of the indulgent politics where people don't think choices have consequences:

    A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK ...

    When presented economy vs immigration trade-offs, Britons typically opt for economic benefit over lower migration

    Those who support requiring large nos of migrants to leave would pick fully staffing NHS over reducing immigration, but economic arguments hold less sway


    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lvnbca3glc2f

    It is why I am always slightly wary of putting too much emphasis on how well an individual policy polls. I am not convinced people really think that deeply about them as they are going through 27,000 questions to get their £50 gift card in 3 months.
    I think there's an genuine policy disconnect here and not just superficial polling issues. Politicians with a good prospect of power are promoting immigration freezes (Farage) or repatriation (Jenrick) based on wilful denial of the consequences. People would not accept those consequences per the polling, but the important point is they also don't reckon those consequences exist.
    That, and more than that, these politicians are happy with leaving the public misinformed. As the polling shows, a large proportion of the population wrongly believe that illegal immigration/asylum seekers are a large proportion of all immigration. They probably also believe that most illegal immigration is asylum seekers.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Just wait for Model Y

    @FT

    Sales of Tesla’s electric vehicles plummeted 60% in the UK last month amid a broader slump in European demand, with Chinese rival BYD surging

    https://x.com/FT/status/1952710861560197213

    That's quite serious as it is July to July not June to July.

    May we hear from our Tesla correspondent in due course *?

    * I just noticed his number plate, which says he is Just a Get. Hmmm.
    My take:
    Y was off-sale for months. I expect ripples of up and down until demand settles back down.
    Today's marketplace has so much more competition now vs 12 months ago
    Model 3 looks a bit old fashioned compared to some of the new competition such as the Merc CLA

    Lets get through a bit of orders / delivery phasing in Q3 and reassess. I have little doubt that Tesla will lose sales to competitors - that happens to dominant players in any market. How they react is key, and making longer / shorter versions of the Y seems like a smart step when you look at how other brands flex platforms to build different sizes off the same chassis.

    Final curiosity - keep an eye on Canada. Tesla Berlin is now supplying that market which we know has delayed some RHD build slots with various reports in groups of people having delivery dates bumped back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,929

    The thing with Epstein that nobody seems to piece together is his money. He was a 2 bit con man who taught in school without a degree than worked a lowish level financial scam that he got out of before the authorities swept in. He could be a millionaire out of it, but then he was suddenly a billionaire.

    Initially I presumed he was just a massive conman and we would find out that all these assets weren't actually his, he didn't really have the sort of money he told people and when he did make these donations they were actually other people's money being either siphoned off or using him as a middle man so to keep their name off paperwork.

    But it seems like he actually had somehow acquired this vast wealth in his name.

    He managed the money for the Victoria's Secret Founder, and presumedly had a deal where he got x% of upside he generated. That's where he got his money from.

    And I wouldn't be surprised if the whole "sex with minors" things netted him a lot of inside information too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,447
    Leon said:

    My whole flat is adorned with them, so it's also a decorative leitmotif

    What Farrow and Ball might call "Malignant Narcissism"
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