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The odds tumble on my 100/1 tip – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,609
edited August 5 in General
The odds tumble on my 100/1 tip – politicalbetting.com

I don’t expect either to become PM before 2030 (odds fallings from 100/1 to 50/1 means something has gone from being extremely unlikely to very unlikely) but I’d expect some polls in the next few months showing their party doing well which would impact their odds so I saw it as a decent trading bet.

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,048
    edited August 5
    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,871
    DavidL said:

    Nah

    Pithy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,863
    edited August 5
    Second, and FPT:
    Battlebus said:

    MattW said:

    a

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    A case I came across this morning.

    A friend, living in a 5th storey council flat, has 2 folding e-cycles for mobility, an e-Brompton and a Gocycle; both are long established British brands. Her Council have just totally banned all e-scooter and e-bike batteries from the lifts.

    Their stance is absolute, and to cite safety concerns and their legal duty to residents i.e. that they could go to prison if they don't take appropriate steps and there's a fire caused by an e-battery. Laptop batteries have not been banned.

    It's a strange one with lots of angles. Standards exist. Fires would start when plugged in and charging in the main, surely? And AFAIK there are no stats collected distinguishing laptop batteries from e-bike batteries (does anyone know?) - there is not much difference, so how is the policy justified?

    A totally separate angle is cycle storage as part of the residents parking for the block.

    And calls for regulation of batteries have been being made consistently for a number of years. This is what happens when appropriate regulation is not done at the appropriate time.

    The reason that they have banned e-bike batteries and not laptops, is volume of material. Same on airlines. A laptop battery letting go* is a small danger. An e-bike battery can threaten a whole building. Such fires have already happened and caused massive amounts of damage.

    Fires are primarily during charging - but can happen after damage and are often time delayed from the damage - hours later.

    After Grenfell, no one is going to take a chance. If they don't ban them and there is a fire, then they would be answering question in the dock. And the government el al will hang them out to dry - a useful scapegoat.

    Regulating the batteries would require strict import control. Which would upset China and all the poorer people using cheap e-bike kits.

    Personally, I would go for staggering fines for importing, possession and use of dangerous batteries. Scaled by the capacity of the battery. Plus criminal liability.

    We actually have such rules for dangerous ICEs - but it's a non-existent problem, since the cheapest and worst petrol car conforms to all the regulations about safety with petrol. Petrol contains more energy per kilo than TNT.....

    *Increasing problem - people are buying ancient laptops, second hand and replacing the batteries with cheap shite from guess where. There is a whole market in replacement batteries for laptops going back a decade or more.
    (Not having a go at you; I'm just exploring the details.)

    For me that doesn't convince. It's not purely about capacity and fire risk. It's more broad brush than that.

    The 20 mile range battery on my Axxon Rides E-folder is 180Wh. That is exactly the same size as batteries for power tools I have. For my E-Brompton I have batteries of size (checks) 90Wh and 180Wh, the former specced to go on an airline.

    Apple currently supply laptop batteries of 100Wh.

    Electric wheelchair lithium batteries go from ~250Wh to ~700Wh, including those available on Motability. The airline limit for those is 300Wh.

    If the risk profile was so stark electric wheelchair batteries would be banned or required to be small; as far as I know they are not banned or size limited.

    I'm not sure that we can say much around "there have already been fires" to justify bans, when data about which categories of battery caused how many fires has just not been collected. The alleged data is probably hearsay.

    To me this feels like lazy and easy decisions that do not reflect actual risk.

    Regulating the batteries would require strict import control. Which would upset China and all the poorer people using cheap e-bike kits.
    I think this is important. Where are all these cheap batteries kept? We regulate other things; of course we can regulate these.

    I tend to agree on regulation. We already have certain regs, but they are not consistent or applied consistently. This is the WFW position statement on this:
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/wheels-for-wellbeing-position-statement-on-statutory-guidelines-on-lithium-ion-battery-safety-for-e-bikes/
    Campaign groups in this area need to point the finger at the actual problem, which is cheap and substandard Chinese imports.

    HMRC and Trading Standards need to up their game, because it’s not Brompton e-bikes and Apple laptops causing house fires. There need to be businesses shut down and people prosecuted for the sale and import of these incendiary devices. Perhaps then there will be less of an aversion to large batteries in general.
    At the moment *my* campaign group are looking for case studies as evidence of Disabled people facing mobility difficulties due to unreasonable restriction of Li-ion battery powered devices, or, as they elucidate it:

    We know lots of people are facing problems including restricting their own mobility aid choices because of Li-ion battery issues and outdated "invalid carriage" laws, but because people are completely understandably worried about enforcement, or don't realise what the current laws actually are, it's hard to get case studies!

    The context is that the DFT are currently consulting directly at Ministerial level, and this is one issue that my group wants to raise.

    At present I'm putting together some words to put in more public fora than the Campaign Network itself; I suspect this is like so many other things - it just gets accepted as an inevitable imposition (see "unlawful obstructions on footpaths").
    What's your idea for the mitigation of fire risk?
    I need to distinguish here between my view, and the organisation's policy position. This is my personal view.

    My first target for change would be acceptance of known safe batteries - that is to British (or whatever) Standard, and from known good brands, used by disabled people. We certify mobility scooters and power wheelchairs with Lithium Ion batteries (some are even on Motability) ; so we can do it for mobility aids which are not currently in the "formally recognised" bucket, such as sit-down scooters and clip on e-assist handcycles. That's not really a big change, and you can see how it ties in to the existing .. er .. process, rather than challenging it.

    I'd push it further in some directions - eg certified / tested folding or non-folding e-bikes, but I'd call that step 2.

    That's not really relevant to the Chinese battery fire risk. My approach to that would be marketplace regulation - which is just the normal way of doing things. We do it with every other product category (eg kettles, furniture) without throwing our hands up in despair, so I don't see that this one is impossible. Trading Standards would need some rebuilding.

    Comments, including hostile ones, are welcome of course. One reason for me to put this thinking here is exactly to get a range of considered opinions - which, amongst everything else, is one good feature of PB.
    Could you take a pic of the stated standards applied to e-bike batteries. What certification process do they go through and is it self-certified or independent test house. Got rid of my ebike a few months ago so I would have checked myself.

    But I do have some skin in this game as we bought our new grandson an e-pram. The pram will provide assist at certain speeds. We'd like to know the pram is safe. (It's weird watch the pram move back and forwards on one setting. It's like watching the Omen.)
    Update for @Battlebus on E-Prams, E-Pushchairs.

    Checking as far as I can easily, these seem to be like E-Scooters, and that would make it a "Personal Light Electric Vehicle - PLEV", AFAICS. That is, outside identified categories.

    I think that would make them illegal and potentially subject to confiscation if noticed by police. And you would need a driving license, type approval etc.

    But that says nothing about whether they are safe or not. For that I would ask if they are compliant to the BS-EN standard mentioned yesterday, which covers the electrical system. And I would want a removable battery that I can keep separate whilst it is at home, and charge away from the pram, and to be self-contained away from the baby whilst it is in the pram.

    Golden Rule One would be "do not charge with the baby in the pram".

    Personally I'd keep it in the hard-floored conservatory or porch or garage, and only have the baby in it when in use, and transport the battery separated where I can see it for any distance in eg a car and not in the middle of a boot of "stuff".

    More may be known by specialist pram shops, maybe in Which reports etc.

    Final Note: There is an extensive (350 page) report from Jan 2025 on this whole area, here:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67a1e68dad556423b636c9c0/plev-battery-safety-report-amended.pdf

    (That's me done on this topic for now - thanks all for the constructive comments.)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,429
    About as likely as Oxford Brookes Uni winning the Boat Race instead of Oxford!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,048
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    Pithy.
    No idea what you mean *innocent face*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107

    About as likely as Oxford Brookes Uni winning the Boat Race instead of Oxford!

    It would be good if they finally let the best university in Oxford compete in the boat race, it's getting a bit one sided with Cambridge absolutely smashing Oxford year on year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,467
    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,153

    About as likely as Oxford Brookes Uni winning the Boat Race instead of Oxford!

    It would be good if they finally let the best university in Oxford compete in the boat race, it's getting a bit one sided with Cambridge absolutely smashing Oxford year on year.
    Oxford Brookes probably don’t want more press coverage of their rowing program. Ahem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569
    edited August 5
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
    For a moment I wondered if Your Party referred to David L’s preferred recipient of his vote, the SCons, and thought ‘a handful of seats’ was generous.

    In general, PB’s complacent accommodation of the prospect of PM Farage while electoral success for Sultana & Corbyn is seen as the wildest of hallucinations indicates the centre of gravity on here. To quote a not so great man, S & C may surprise on the upside.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018
    Morning all :)

    Let's be honest - very few people ever become Prime Minister so the "field" for the race is always much smaller than the bookies would have you believe.

    The only realistic candidates to succeed Starmer currently are someone in his own Cabinet, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage and neither of the last two have that much chance before 2028/9 and given how hard it is for Labour to get rid of a leader who doesn't want to go, all you're left with are these periodic unsubstantiated pieces from the anti-Government media claiming either that Starmer doesn't want to be Prime Minister any longer or the Cabinet is about to revolt and depose him.

    Neither seem very probable either so until and unless Starmer decides to walk away, it's all conjecture.

    MY feeling currently is Badenoch and Farage are much less secure in their positions than Starmer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,153

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
    For a moment I wondered if Your Party referred to David L’s preferred recipient of his vote, the SCons, and thought ‘a handful of seats’ was generous.

    In general, PB’s accommodation of the prospect of PM Farage while electoral success for Sultana & Corbyn is seen as the wildest of hallucinations indicates the centre of gravity on here. To quote a not so great man, S & C may surprise on the upside.
    I think they will take a chunk out of Labour and the Greens. 10% in national polls wouldn’t surprise.

    The real question is how that holds up in an election. Will their line about Blue Labour stop their supporters voting Labour, tactically?

    There’s a parallel with the hard left (yes, they exist) in the US - some of whom refused to vote Dem to stop Trump.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018
    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,295
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    Perhaps the 'sense of entitlement' is a belief in the promises made by politicians. Both have no grounding in reality - so DYOR.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,871
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    TBF to David, that was a rapid edit to "nah", rather than a considered verdict.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,185
    Electric pram???
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569
    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,173
    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,871
    How many are aware that around a third of the casualties at Hiroshima were Korean ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8zlwd3e42o
    ...A combination of these conditions - poor treatment, hazardous work and structural discrimination - all contributed to a disproportionately high death toll among Koreans.
    According to the Korean Atomic Bomb Victims Association, the Korean fatality rate was 57.1%, compared to the overall rate of about 33.7%.
    About 70,000 Koreans were exposed to the bomb. By year's end, some 40,000 had died...


    A combination of distrust of anyone connected with Japan, and a deep societal prejudice against the 'disfigured' meant returning survivors were more or less ignored in Korea, too.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018
    Battlebus said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    Perhaps the 'sense of entitlement' is a belief in the promises made by politicians. Both have no grounding in reality - so DYOR.
    There's nothing wrong with a healthy degree of scepticism as long as it's universally applied. The problem starts when people are sceptical to the claims of one party or group but lap up what the other side adds as though it were the very Elixir of Truth itself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691

    About as likely as Oxford Brookes Uni winning the Boat Race instead of Oxford!

    It would be good if they finally let the best university in Oxford compete in the boat race, it's getting a bit one sided with Cambridge absolutely smashing Oxford year on year.
    Oxford Brookes probably don’t want more press coverage of their rowing program. Ahem.
    Indeed. Admitting that watching rowing is like watching paint dry was an embarrassingly frank moment that probably turned them into pariahs.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    On topic, if Corbyn were to become PM in 2035 he would be the oldest ever Prime Minister. I'm fairly sure, although I can't prove it, that he would also be the oldest person to serve in Cabinet, in both cases taking the record from Gladstone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,871
    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Last seen in a field of wheat.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018
    Rather than speculating pointlessly about Corbyn and Sultana, this is the kind of thing about which we should be talking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04r7l455zeo

    Newham continues to go downhill rapidly - there was a strong and active hosuing enforcement team and a licensing system in place for private landlords but all that appears to have fallen apart and we are creating a new generation of slums alongside brand new flats which no one can afford to buy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
    For a moment I wondered if Your Party referred to David L’s preferred recipient of his vote, the SCons, and thought ‘a handful of seats’ was generous.

    In general, PB’s complacent accommodation of the prospect of PM Farage while electoral success for Sultana & Corbyn is seen as the wildest of hallucinations indicates the centre of gravity on here. To quote a not so great man, S & C may surprise on the upside.
    People are utterly fed up with the state of the country - we can all see that. Despite a variety of other reactionary parties being out there, so far only the Farage Cult has gained any real traction. And that is despite not having any real solutions on the table.

    So I consider it very possible that we get to a place where a reactionary party on the left gains similar traction to the reactionary party on the right. We have the Fukkers protesting outside hotels and now anti-fukkers protesting the fukkers. Reform vs Corbynism. One party is flying, the other is new, but no reason why they can't grow.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,185
    Corbyn is king of the Saturday afternoon marches and probably is happiest keeping it that way. He is "best" as an outsider agitating against the system, not as the propagator of that system.

    He is also an utter tosser but that is beside the point.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,072

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569
    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284
    If Reform win the next general election but Farage performs poorly as PM and Corbyn overtakes Starmer Labour on votes and seats to become Leader of the Opposition again not impossible he could finally win a general election and become PM. Though likely not until the 2030s
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,871
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    12 months to sort a problem a decade in the making really isn't a long time.

    The government absolutely deserves criticism for being extremely slow in starting to address the many problems it inherited.
    But a belief this can all be sorted with some magical policies within a year is nonsense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284
    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    James Cleverly did and far more than May
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    Meanwhile the voters look to the US, where the change of government resulted in a very swift containment of the illegal immigration problem.

    Now of course the circumstances of the UK and US are very different, but there’s still millions of voters who don’t understand why the illegal crossers aren’t being immediately returned to France, or at least held in a tent city on an old airbase somewhere rather than in hotels.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    We are, and we are.

    People think they are entitled to be able to find work that pays their bills. To have those bills not keep going up. To receive a viable level of public services and social infrastructure back for their record tax payments.

    There is a see of anger and discontent out there and I agree with the people who are sick of the LabCon blaming each other whilst doing nothing strategic.

    That leaves the door open to new solutions being found. The LabCon duopoly has failed. In Scotland and Wales the sole party in power have failed in their respective domains. Change is coming.

    You and I might wee ourselves laughing at the idea that Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana are appealing to anyone. But we're not their target voter. Jezbollah motivated an awful lot of people (and yes, repelled even more). I can see the return of the Magic Grandpa - back to being a symbol of protest and resistance rather than pretending to be a viable government - attracting a whole lot of younger and more radical voters.

    If - and its a very big if - they can focus attention onto home issues and not Gaza. With the greatest of respect to the people enraged by Gaza, that isn't going to attract people other than you. But talk about injustice (where Gaza is a foreign example) and play on injustice at home? Could do decent business.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,620
    TOPPING said:

    Electric pram???

    Mental
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    A very hung parliament
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    I just don't see a Reform Government as likely any more than I seriously thought the Alliance would win power in the 1980s. I suspect "the boats" won't have the salience in 2028/9 it (or they) do now. Someone will come up with something to reduce the numbers crossing and with more asylum cases being dealt with and legal immigration falling due to changes (and let's give credit where it's due) introduced by Sunak and Cleverly, it may be immigration isn't the issue then it is now.

    We also know Reform's "programme" is likely to fall apart quicker than the England tail end (too soon?) once it's out in the public domain and Farage will be spending the campaign trying to either a) defend the inconsistencies and/or b) rebutting accusations about what his candidates tweeted in 2010 about (you can fill in the rest yourself).

    Reform could perhaps win because the other parties will get in each other's way but we know there's a strong anti-Farage sentiment out there which can be effectively mobilised but that's the only way I can see it happening.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    She showed it, but only in flashes. I think she was told to keep it serious for the most part, which I have to say I think was the biggest error of the lot in a field of intense competition. A lighter touch would have done much to neutralise the threat from Massive Johnson whose whole appeal was the humour and persona.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    Meanwhile the voters look to the US, where the change of government resulted in a very swift containment of the illegal immigration problem.

    Now of course the circumstances of the UK and US are very different, but there’s still millions of voters who don’t understand why the illegal crossers aren’t being immediately returned to France, or at least held in a tent city on an old airbase somewhere rather than in hotels.
    The tents proposal is fascinating. Where would we erect the tents? The Tories wanted to use former US airbases to house migrants. Cue Consternation and Uproar, with even Priti Patel protesting against her own government proposing to use one in her constituency. Same with the barge moored at the end of the world (Portland) - swathes of angry bussed in protestors.

    When 30p et al say "stick em in tents" they don't mean it. They would agitate for unrest at the tent city.

    Everyone in politics (bar Corbynites maybe) want order restored to migration and the boats to stop. But as we don't have a magic wand we can't just go from today's mess to no migrants with one leap...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    I am reporting the Telegraph for a crime against graphs, which honestly even the Lib Dems would be embarrassed by.




    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/05/britain-loses-more-than-1100-pubs-and-restaurants-in-wake-o/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,620
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    She has always been as much use as a chocolate teapot, perfect example of the mediocrity running the country and explains why we are in such a state. Never had a real job in her life.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 888

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
    For a moment I wondered if Your Party referred to David L’s preferred recipient of his vote, the SCons, and thought ‘a handful of seats’ was generous.

    In general, PB’s complacent accommodation of the prospect of PM Farage while electoral success for Sultana & Corbyn is seen as the wildest of hallucinations indicates the centre of gravity on here. To quote a not so great man, S & C may surprise on the upside.
    People are utterly fed up with the state of the country - we can all see that. Despite a variety of other reactionary parties being out there, so far only the Farage Cult has gained any real traction. And that is despite not having any real solutions on the table.

    So I consider it very possible that we get to a place where a reactionary party on the left gains similar traction to the reactionary party on the right. We have the Fukkers protesting outside hotels and now anti-fukkers protesting the fukkers. Reform vs Corbynism. One party is flying, the other is new, but no reason why they can't grow.
    I think a proper party of the Left has much more opportunity to gain traction that the Right. We've been governed from the Centre-Right for almost all my adult lifetime (Blair was certainly more right than left, perhaps Brown was a bit left of centre but hardly radical).

    If the country wants 'Change' then it's the Left that hasn't been tried.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284

    About as likely as Oxford Brookes Uni winning the Boat Race instead of Oxford!

    It would be good if they finally let the best university in Oxford compete in the boat race, it's getting a bit one sided with Cambridge absolutely smashing Oxford year on year.
    Thrte could be an Oxford Brookes v Anglia Ruskin race
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    Meanwhile the voters look to the US, where the change of government resulted in a very swift containment of the illegal immigration problem.
    You mean, because Donald Trump is no longer ordering his acolytes in Congress to block legislation or tear down fencing in a bid to drive up illegal immigration and make his opponents look bad?

    Gosh. Amazing how difficult it was for him to turn that round.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,620
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    12 months to sort a problem a decade in the making really isn't a long time.

    The government absolutely deserves criticism for being extremely slow in starting to address the many problems it inherited.
    But a belief this can all be sorted with some magical policies within a year is nonsense.
    Any problem even starting to be resolved would be a start though. This mob make the Tories look good, they are F***ing useless.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,179

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    Voters want cuts to affect managers and consultants, not nurses and bin men.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,863
    TOPPING said:

    Electric pram???

    Yes. eg https://www.cybex-online.com/en/gb/prams-and-pushchairs/electric-pushchairs/

    They do cool things like "rock themselves".

    At base, it could make sense in at least 3 circs I can see:

    1 - A mobility impaired parent.
    2 - Care by an elderly relative.
    3 - Living somewhere hilly - eg Sheffield?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,048
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Let's be honest - very few people ever become Prime Minister so the "field" for the race is always much smaller than the bookies would have you believe.

    The only realistic candidates to succeed Starmer currently are someone in his own Cabinet, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage and neither of the last two have that much chance before 2028/9 and given how hard it is for Labour to get rid of a leader who doesn't want to go, all you're left with are these periodic unsubstantiated pieces from the anti-Government media claiming either that Starmer doesn't want to be Prime Minister any longer or the Cabinet is about to revolt and depose him.

    Neither seem very probable either so until and unless Starmer decides to walk away, it's all conjecture.

    MY feeling currently is Badenoch and Farage are much less secure in their positions than Starmer.

    Farage is secure, without him Reform would be polling much lower
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    Well, Balls being part of a team on a prime time news programme interviewing his wife the Home Secretary certainly caused me to let out a sardonic snigger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,177
    Morning all.

    The pub that was empty on Saturday that we were discussing on here (wet only, closed at 7pm), now has the landlord doing a piece in Telegraph explaining why things are shite.

    Matthew Todd
    The village pub I run is being taxed to death

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/05/the-village-pub-i-run-is-being-taxed-to-death
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,723

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    I was wondering this morning, I really was that bored, if the UK suddenly found a game changer today like North Sea oil, whether our politicians would have the wit to use the windfall well?

    As much as I hope they would set up a huge investment fund such as the Norwegians did or pay off national debt I just feel that it would be blown by salami slicing it into little areas where it would only ultimately have marginal effects.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,620
    PJH said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
    For a moment I wondered if Your Party referred to David L’s preferred recipient of his vote, the SCons, and thought ‘a handful of seats’ was generous.

    In general, PB’s complacent accommodation of the prospect of PM Farage while electoral success for Sultana & Corbyn is seen as the wildest of hallucinations indicates the centre of gravity on here. To quote a not so great man, S & C may surprise on the upside.
    People are utterly fed up with the state of the country - we can all see that. Despite a variety of other reactionary parties being out there, so far only the Farage Cult has gained any real traction. And that is despite not having any real solutions on the table.

    So I consider it very possible that we get to a place where a reactionary party on the left gains similar traction to the reactionary party on the right. We have the Fukkers protesting outside hotels and now anti-fukkers protesting the fukkers. Reform vs Corbynism. One party is flying, the other is new, but no reason why they can't grow.
    I think a proper party of the Left has much more opportunity to gain traction that the Right. We've been governed from the Centre-Right for almost all my adult lifetime (Blair was certainly more right than left, perhaps Brown was a bit left of centre but hardly radical).

    If the country wants 'Change' then it's the Left that hasn't been tried.
    We see what they are like, fecking useless, freebies for all feckless arses and soak the rich. They could not run a bath.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    edited August 5

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    People want to feel politicians speak their language and get their concerns. The political class has grown increasingly out of touch in the past 25 years or so, and people simply don’t believe them anymore.

    The only reason someone like Farage, who for his many faults, can speak the language of many voters much better, is not even further ahead in the polls, is because of his sizeable baggage.

    Boris was a similar “anti-politician” to many.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    I still think the government missed a trick in their first budget, to say that the finances they inherited are way worse than they had been led to believe, so unfortunately there’s 2p going on all income tax rates for the duration of this Parliament. Then make a show of repealing the tax rise before the next election.

    They’d have taken the hit at the time, but instead took the hit anyway with a load of tinkering that annoyed many organised groups of people a lot (farmers, pensioners, private school parents and teachers), had to back down on the only one that raised serious money (the WFA) and so are left with the political hit but no extra revenue for it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,048

    I am reporting the Telegraph for a crime against graphs, which honestly even the Lib Dems would be embarrassed by.




    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/05/britain-loses-more-than-1100-pubs-and-restaurants-in-wake-o/

    A graph with 2 data points. It’s inspired.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,173
    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    In London I guess if you offered the Tories loss of Bexley and Bromley to NOC (but remaining largest party?) in return for holding Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and regaining Westminster and having a tilt at either Barnet or Wandsworth they'd 'bank"
    Holding at an historically low level is not really shooting for the stars of course
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    People want to feel politicians speak their language and get their concerns. The political class has grown increasingly out of touch in the past 25 years or so, and people simply don’t believe them anymore.

    The only reason someone like Farage, who for his many faults, can speak the language of many voters much better, is not even further ahead in the polls, is because of his sizeable baggage.
    Does his sizeable baggage refer to that photo that TSE is always threatening us with?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,620
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    I still think the government missed a trick in their first budget, to say that the finances they inherited are way worse than they had been led to believe, so unfortunately there’s 2p going on all income tax rates for the duration of this Parliament. Then make a show of repealing the tax rise before the next election.

    They’d have taken the hit at the time, but instead took the hit anyway with a load of tinkering that annoyed many organised groups of people a lot (farmers, pensioners, private school parents and teachers), had to back down on the only one that raised serious money (the WFA) and so are left with the political hit but no extra revenue for it.
    That would have required intelligence and common sense. They only have dogma and stupidity, the current lot are the biggest bunch of losers to run the country for a long time.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018
    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    We think we are entitled to a much higher standard of living than we earn. Hence 20 years of trade deficits resulting in so many of our assets falling into foreign ownership. Hence public debt at 100% or so of GDP. Hence the highest taxes for a long time not even paying the bills. Hence the pandemic of shoplifting and theft. Hence these absurd “compensation” claims for deals freely agreed at the time. Anything for free money without the slightest thought of where it comes from.

    “Entitled” seemed a reasonable 1 word summary.
    Thank you for that and apologies if I was a bit snippy at you earlier.

    It's complicated - I go back to the notion of us wanting European standards of public services on American levels of tax. That being said, if we are to pay European levels of tax, we should get commensurate levels of service and as I've mentioned earlier, we are failing on some of the basics such as housing. The problem, and I've seen this from both sides, is we expect our local councils in particular to provide service levels with minimum or often below minimum levels of resources. That's not necessarily a plea to give Councils more money but a recognition perhaps the way things are done needs to be fundamentally reassessed but not from a cost basis.

    I'm also wary of the advent of "consumerism" - look at how our true leader is actually Martin Lewis. Lewis taps into two things - first, our resentment at how large private (and public) companies treat their customers and second, the truth these companies are more interested in their own profit margins than the service they provide.

    The cost of everything and the value of nothing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284
    PJH said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    Well, as Farage is favourite for next PM, the evidence is out there.

    But I agree, much as I have a soft spot for both Sultana and Magic Grandpa, Your Party is likely to win only a handful of seats under FPTP.

    More Independents in Parliament is probably a good thing, but may present problems in a NOC Parliament.
    For a moment I wondered if Your Party referred to David L’s preferred recipient of his vote, the SCons, and thought ‘a handful of seats’ was generous.

    In general, PB’s complacent accommodation of the prospect of PM Farage while electoral success for Sultana & Corbyn is seen as the wildest of hallucinations indicates the centre of gravity on here. To quote a not so great man, S & C may surprise on the upside.
    People are utterly fed up with the state of the country - we can all see that. Despite a variety of other reactionary parties being out there, so far only the Farage Cult has gained any real traction. And that is despite not having any real solutions on the table.

    So I consider it very possible that we get to a place where a reactionary party on the left gains similar traction to the reactionary party on the right. We have the Fukkers protesting outside hotels and now anti-fukkers protesting the fukkers. Reform vs Corbynism. One party is flying, the other is new, but no reason why they can't grow.
    I think a proper party of the Left has much more opportunity to gain traction that the Right. We've been governed from the Centre-Right for almost all my adult lifetime (Blair was certainly more right than left, perhaps Brown was a bit left of centre but hardly radical).

    If the country wants 'Change' then it's the Left that hasn't been tried.
    As the median voter is fractionally centre right. Yougov occasionally do polls asking voters to place themselves and politicians and parties on the spectrum and Blair was closest to the average UK voter followed by Nick Clegg
  • PJHPJH Posts: 888

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    Meanwhile the voters look to the US, where the change of government resulted in a very swift containment of the illegal immigration problem.

    Now of course the circumstances of the UK and US are very different, but there’s still millions of voters who don’t understand why the illegal crossers aren’t being immediately returned to France, or at least held in a tent city on an old airbase somewhere rather than in hotels.
    The tents proposal is fascinating. Where would we erect the tents? The Tories wanted to use former US airbases to house migrants. Cue Consternation and Uproar, with even Priti Patel protesting against her own government proposing to use one in her constituency. Same with the barge moored at the end of the world (Portland) - swathes of angry bussed in protestors.

    When 30p et al say "stick em in tents" they don't mean it. They would agitate for unrest at the tent city.

    Everyone in politics (bar Corbynites maybe) want order restored to migration and the boats to stop. But as we don't have a magic wand we can't just go from today's mess to no migrants with one leap...
    The only way to stop the boats is to restore order in the places most of the migrants come from, so they don't want to leave in the first place. That means sending expeditionary forces to places like Sudan and er, Afghanistan. That worked well the last time we tried it...

    Otherwise all we are dealing with is the symptoms. We're lucky we're at the end of an arduous journey, and not on the front line.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,018

    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    In London I guess if you offered the Tories loss of Bexley and Bromley to NOC (but remaining largest party?) in return for holding Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and regaining Westminster and having a tilt at either Barnet or Wandsworth they'd 'bank"
    Holding at an historically low level is not really shooting for the stars of course
    I could see the Conservatives, like the LDs, being pushed out of many London Boroughs completely and their councillor numbers concentrated in just five or six areas.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
    Ukraine is good, thanks. Actually a lot quieter in terms of sirens than a couple of years ago, in fact most of the reports of drone attacks in recent days have been Ukranian drones heading for Russia, rather than the other way around.

    Meanwhile my wife gets to spend time with her father who’s now 72 and not in the best of health, and I get a quiet couple of weeks off what’s been a very stressful job for the past year or so.

    I’ll be up in your neck of the woods in a couple of weeks’ time, have a family reunion in Glasgow and will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster, Edinburgh, and some of the surrounding scenery!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,871
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
    Voters don't mind humour at all.
    It's politicians taking the piss that they object to.

    Boris went from the first category to the second.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,029
    Obviously, it's a trading bet but Corbyn becoming Prime Minister - no chance.

    Corbyn's best time was in June 2017. 0.5% for Labour, straight from the Conservatives; and a few of the closer calls falling his way and yeah, he could've been PM then. But not now. He'll be 80 years old at the time of the next election.

    Maybe leader of his new party (if they can find a name) for a year or two to build brand name and recognition before handing over to Sultana or someone else - that's assuming they get a decent start and keep going. But I think they'll go the way of Veritas personally......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284
    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    I can see the Tories gaining Westminster and Barnet but losing Bexley and Bromley. Inner London is immune to Reform
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,173
    edited August 5
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    In London I guess if you offered the Tories loss of Bexley and Bromley to NOC (but remaining largest party?) in return for holding Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and regaining Westminster and having a tilt at either Barnet or Wandsworth they'd 'bank"
    Holding at an historically low level is not really shooting for the stars of course
    I could see the Conservatives, like the LDs, being pushed out of many London Boroughs completely and their councillor numbers concentrated in just five or six areas.
    They're already zeroed in Barking, Haringey, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Richmond, islington

    Ealing, Greenwich, Tower Hamlets look ripe for extinction

    Edit - and Kingston
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    Well, Balls being part of a team on a prime time news programme interviewing his wife the Home Secretary certainly caused me to let out a sardonic snigger.
    Yeah that’s not exactly a good look.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    I still think the government missed a trick in their first budget, to say that the finances they inherited are way worse than they had been led to believe, so unfortunately there’s 2p going on all income tax rates for the duration of this Parliament. Then make a show of repealing the tax rise before the next election.

    They’d have taken the hit at the time, but instead took the hit anyway with a load of tinkering that annoyed many organised groups of people a lot (farmers, pensioners, private school parents and teachers), had to back down on the only one that raised serious money (the WFA) and so are left with the political hit but no extra revenue for it.
    That would have required intelligence and common sense. They only have dogma and stupidity, the current lot are the biggest bunch of losers to run the country for a long time.
    Is last summer a long time?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
    Ukraine is good, thanks. Actually a lot quieter in terms of sirens than a couple of years ago, in fact most of the reports of drone attacks in recent days have been Ukranian drones heading for Russia, rather than the other way around.

    Meanwhile my wife gets to spend time with her father who’s now 72 and not in the best of health, and I get a quiet couple of weeks off what’s been a very stressful job for the past year or so.

    I’ll be up in your neck of the woods in a couple of weeks’ time, have a family reunion in Glasgow and will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster, Edinburgh, and some of the surrounding scenery!
    'will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster'

    Jeez, I'm definitely in a Carry On mood this morning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    What was striking was the extent to which even now Cooper is relying for her word salad on blaming the last government instead of being able to point simply and clearly to how this government has fulfilled its promises to smash the gangs and stop the boats. The point about government is the power to govern and the unique power to get stuff done, and for voters 12 months + is a long time. The chances of a Reform government are not decreasing.
    Meanwhile the voters look to the US, where the change of government resulted in a very swift containment of the illegal immigration problem.
    You mean, because Donald Trump is no longer ordering his acolytes in Congress to block legislation or tear down fencing in a bid to drive up illegal immigration and make his opponents look bad?

    Gosh. Amazing how difficult it was for him to turn that round.
    Most of what’s been done on by Trump on illegal immigration had been with EOs rather than legislation.

    It’ll need to be codified at some point though, if the GOP don’t want the next Dem president to reverse course.

    Congress, as usual and no matter which side is running it, are more in hock to themselves and their donors than the wishes of the American people. To those who think the British political class is aloof and disinterested, as usual the Americans do things bigger and better.
  • I am reporting the Telegraph for a crime against graphs, which honestly even the Lib Dems would be embarrassed by.




    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/05/britain-loses-more-than-1100-pubs-and-restaurants-in-wake-o/

    That is appalling.

    Although, to clarify, I refute the suggestion that we in the Lib Dems would be embarrassed about it at all.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,729
    DavidL said:

    I am reporting the Telegraph for a crime against graphs, which honestly even the Lib Dems would be embarrassed by.




    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/05/britain-loses-more-than-1100-pubs-and-restaurants-in-wake-o/

    A graph with 2 data points. It’s inspired.
    Moreover the selection of the origin and ranges is exemplary.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,153
    boulay said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    There’s a belief among some of PB that the problem is The People. Who just don’t like increasing taxes for increasingly poor services.

    The problem, as usual, is more complicated. Many people would be ok with better services, in return for more taxes.

    What they actually see, locally and nationally, is services run badly.

    So we seem to have a combination of “there’s no money” and poor cost control.

    Most people assume that 5p on income tax would simply disappear into The Machine, with no noticeable change. They are probably right.
    I was wondering this morning, I really was that bored, if the UK suddenly found a game changer today like North Sea oil, whether our politicians would have the wit to use the windfall well?

    As much as I hope they would set up a huge investment fund such as the Norwegians did or pay off national debt I just feel that it would be blown by salami slicing it into little areas where it would only ultimately have marginal effects.
    For a start, there would be a 100 billion program to randomly change medical staff’s shifts at the literal last minute, while repeatedly tasering them.

    Then another 100 billion program on trying to discover why retention in the NHS has gone down.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,185
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Electric pram???

    Yes. eg https://www.cybex-online.com/en/gb/prams-and-pushchairs/electric-pushchairs/

    They do cool things like "rock themselves".

    At base, it could make sense in at least 3 circs I can see:

    1 - A mobility impaired parent.
    2 - Care by an elderly relative.
    3 - Living somewhere hilly - eg Sheffield?
    I mean at the very edge of examples. They are on wheels to start with ffs.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,691
    MattW said:


    3 - Living somewhere hilly - eg Sheffield?

    Not a realistic use case. The mother will be 13 and therefore quite fit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,729

    I am reporting the Telegraph for a crime against graphs, which honestly even the Lib Dems would be embarrassed by.




    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/05/britain-loses-more-than-1100-pubs-and-restaurants-in-wake-o/

    That is appalling.

    Although, to clarify, I refute the suggestion that we in the Lib Dems would be embarrassed about it at all.
    Errrr ... 'reject' surely. You need to submit actual evidence to do any refuting.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,105
    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    We think we are entitled to a much higher standard of living than we earn. Hence 20 years of trade deficits resulting in so many of our assets falling into foreign ownership. Hence public debt at 100% or so of GDP. Hence the highest taxes for a long time not even paying the bills. Hence the pandemic of shoplifting and theft. Hence these absurd “compensation” claims for deals freely agreed at the time. Anything for free money without the slightest thought of where it comes from.

    “Entitled” seemed a reasonable 1 word summary.
    20 years of trade deficits resulting FROM so many of our assets falling into foreign ownership. FTFY.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,729

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
    Ukraine is good, thanks. Actually a lot quieter in terms of sirens than a couple of years ago, in fact most of the reports of drone attacks in recent days have been Ukranian drones heading for Russia, rather than the other way around.

    Meanwhile my wife gets to spend time with her father who’s now 72 and not in the best of health, and I get a quiet couple of weeks off what’s been a very stressful job for the past year or so.

    I’ll be up in your neck of the woods in a couple of weeks’ time, have a family reunion in Glasgow and will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster, Edinburgh, and some of the surrounding scenery!
    'will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster'

    Jeez, I'm definitely in a Carry On mood this morning.
    Hmm, worth bearing in mind that could still be Arts Festival time in Edinburgh - so rammed, prices in the eating places jacked higher and menus slashed, etc. etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    We think we are entitled to a much higher standard of living than we earn. Hence 20 years of trade deficits resulting in so many of our assets falling into foreign ownership. Hence public debt at 100% or so of GDP. Hence the highest taxes for a long time not even paying the bills. Hence the pandemic of shoplifting and theft. Hence these absurd “compensation” claims for deals freely agreed at the time. Anything for free money without the slightest thought of where it comes from.

    “Entitled” seemed a reasonable 1 word summary.
    Before 1992, the Balance of Payments figures used to lead the Six O’Clock News.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,247
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    Politics is very self indulgent at the moment, where people make choices that they don't think have consequences. Corbyn, Farage, Brexit, anti-vaccine and anti-woke are all examples of this.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 888

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    In London I guess if you offered the Tories loss of Bexley and Bromley to NOC (but remaining largest party?) in return for holding Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and regaining Westminster and having a tilt at either Barnet or Wandsworth they'd 'bank"
    Holding at an historically low level is not really shooting for the stars of course
    I could see the Conservatives, like the LDs, being pushed out of many London Boroughs completely and their councillor numbers concentrated in just five or six areas.
    They're already zeroed in Barking, Haringey, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Richmond, islington

    Ealing, Greenwich, Tower Hamlets look ripe for extinction

    Edit - and Kingston
    Growing up in Kingston, when the Tories had 40 out of 50 councillors and seemed unassailable, that would have seemed impossible back then. And yet it is quite possible. Mind boggling.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
    Ukraine is good, thanks. Actually a lot quieter in terms of sirens than a couple of years ago, in fact most of the reports of drone attacks in recent days have been Ukranian drones heading for Russia, rather than the other way around.

    Meanwhile my wife gets to spend time with her father who’s now 72 and not in the best of health, and I get a quiet couple of weeks off what’s been a very stressful job for the past year or so.

    I’ll be up in your neck of the woods in a couple of weeks’ time, have a family reunion in Glasgow and will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster, Edinburgh, and some of the surrounding scenery!
    'will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster'

    Jeez, I'm definitely in a Carry On mood this morning.
    Hmm, worth bearing in mind that could still be Arts Festival time in Edinburgh - so rammed, prices in the eating places jacked higher and menus slashed, etc. etc.
    It’ll be the last couple of days of the Festival, so yes in and out the same day, and probably fast food for lunch!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,729
    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Yvette Cooper doing the rounds this am, ‘competently’ spouting numbers and persuading no one. Is there anyone in the government who isn’t charmlessly robotic?

    Lies, damn lies and Government statistics as someone probably once said. Being Home Secretary is probably the most difficult and thankless Cabinet job - everyone wants you to be "tough" on everything. The notion of a charismatic liberal Home Secreatry seems laughable currently - all we seem to want is someone who would taser you if you looked at them in a funny way.

    I mean, it's not like the old days when Rab Butler would throw a custard pie at Richard Dimbleby - ah, whatever happened to good old fashioned political slapstick? The last Home Secretary to have a sense of humour was Theresa May - whatever happened to her?

    Maybe so, though Theresa like many pols only seemed to reveal her soh after leaving government. I think that governments historically have tended to leaven the tough with some likeability. Of course we voters don’t appear to be in much of a mood to like anything or anyone, but it’s grim that politicians seem to have given up trying.
    In recent years we;ve seen the likes of Ed Balls and Michael Portillo show a sense of homour in media work, something that they never showed when serving in the Cabinet.
    How’s Ukraine? Thriving I hope.

    Politicians seem to think that we like them earnest and serious. I’m not so sure. Boris is the obvious exception and he did alright. Salmond could also be funny. I think we might appreciate a sense of the ridiculous rather more than most politicians think.
    Ukraine is good, thanks. Actually a lot quieter in terms of sirens than a couple of years ago, in fact most of the reports of drone attacks in recent days have been Ukranian drones heading for Russia, rather than the other way around.

    Meanwhile my wife gets to spend time with her father who’s now 72 and not in the best of health, and I get a quiet couple of weeks off what’s been a very stressful job for the past year or so.

    I’ll be up in your neck of the woods in a couple of weeks’ time, have a family reunion in Glasgow and will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster, Edinburgh, and some of the surrounding scenery!
    'will be showing Mrs Sandpit the Loch Ness monster'

    Jeez, I'm definitely in a Carry On mood this morning.
    Hmm, worth bearing in mind that could still be Arts Festival time in Edinburgh - so rammed, prices in the eating places jacked higher and menus slashed, etc. etc.
    It’ll be the last couple of days of the Festival, so yes in and out the same day, and probably fast food for lunch!
    Oh good - just so you aren't disappointed. Edinburgh itself is still very much there despite the drifts of litter left by Fringe handout touts in the streets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,045
    FF43 said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah

    This country is being driven mad by a sense of entitlement but even we are not that stupid.

    Are we?

    I'm sorry - it's early in the morning for me but I simply don't understand that comment at all. What do you mean by a "sense of entitlement" and to what extent are we being "driven mad" by it? It's just one of those throwaway comments such as "the whole country's run by woke" which turns up here too often and needs to be challenged.
    Politics is very self indulgent at the moment, where people make choices that they don't think have consequences. Corbyn, Farage, Brexit, anti-vaccine and anti-woke are all examples of this.
    As much as I don't hold a candle for Corbyn and his lot, he did at least get people thinking about tuition fees. Now, he absolutely didn't want to consider what it would take to change the system, but the centrist politicians have been thoroughly indulgent in terms of borrow and spend.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,177

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    Depends how you look at it - I have TNT and not Sky
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,569
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:


    3 - Living somewhere hilly - eg Sheffield?

    Not a realistic use case. The mother will be 13 and therefore quite fit.
    Fit 13 year olds, never far from the concerns of ar child defenders.

    https://x.com/LouiseRawAuthor/status/1952100402180268232
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,723
    Re the struggling pub in Wonston that doesn’t sell food this was timely and probably just confirms our suspicions/knowledge/experience.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2025/aug/05/how-did-british-pub-food-get-so-grim-gastropubs
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    Depends how you look at it - I have TNT and not Sky
    The TNT coverage has been shit, they usually take the host commentary, which is really annoying and biased towards Australia.

    Sky used to send their own full commentary team.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,451
    Rupert Matthews, the PCC who just defected from the Tories to Reform UK, the one who says we need to remove the “dark heart of wokeness”, believes in UFO abductions and writes books on the paranormal: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-defection-rupert-matthews-b2801559.html

    How odd that someone into crackpot conspiracy theories should be all "anti-woke" and join Reform.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,045

    Bad news cricket fans.

    TNT will be showing this winter’s Ashes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/05/tnt-sports-secures-live-rights-england-ashes-tour-australia-test-cricket

    Oh well, at least The Hundred starts today nn

    Depends how you look at it - I have TNT and not Sky
    The TNT coverage has been shit, they usually take the host commentary, which is really annoying and biased towards Australia.

    Sky used to send their own full commentary team.
    But Sky are cheapskates these days, more so than TNT.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,284
    edited August 5
    PJH said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all.
    Cant see them polling much into double figures after the initial surge of interest. Theyll run at kind of Green levels or just under - 5 to 10%. Enough to hamstring or damage any party with left/Gaza credentials polling well witn the youngest cohort.

    YouGov is out and sees little change
    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 21 (-1)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (+1)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    I imagine someone will go through the pointless exercise of trying to "Baxter" these numbers. Last week's Reform win in Bromley looks ominous for Conservative prospects in the east and south of the capital next year. We might well see the Conservatives win Boroughs off Labour but at the same time lose them to Reform or NOC (Bromley, Bexley).

    My local contacts tell me the Conservatives ran a strong campaign in Bromley Common but still came up short.

    The next contests of personal interest will be those in Addlestone and Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott in a fortnight or so. August by elections are always strange and generally have low turnout.

    With the death of a County Councillor in Camberley West (another Con-LD marginal) earlier this week, Surrey now has 40 Conservative Councillors, 38 Opposition Councillors and 3 vacancies so if the Conservatives fail to win any of the vacancies, they will technically be a minority administration, not that it matters much but we will probably have elections to the new Shadow Authorities next spring.
    In London I guess if you offered the Tories loss of Bexley and Bromley to NOC (but remaining largest party?) in return for holding Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and regaining Westminster and having a tilt at either Barnet or Wandsworth they'd 'bank"
    Holding at an historically low level is not really shooting for the stars of course
    I could see the Conservatives, like the LDs, being pushed out of many London Boroughs completely and their councillor numbers concentrated in just five or six areas.
    They're already zeroed in Barking, Haringey, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Richmond, islington

    Ealing, Greenwich, Tower Hamlets look ripe for extinction

    Edit - and Kingston
    Growing up in Kingston, when the Tories had 40 out of 50 councillors and seemed unassailable, that would have seemed impossible back then. And yet it is quite possible. Mind boggling.
    Unlikely, the Tories are likely to do OK in London next year as the Labour vote is well down on 2022 too, the LD vote little changed and Reform don't really register much in the capital beyond the Essex and Kent borders
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