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A second referendum, is this how Starmer wins a second term? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,609
edited August 4 in General
A second referendum, is this how Starmer wins a second term? – politicalbetting.com

?????? Second part of our polling on Brits attitudes to foreign policy in today's @thetimes.com. This week looking at Brits attitudes to 3 big power blocs, the EU, the US & China. On Brexit we find just 29% of Brits would vote Leave if the Referendum were held today. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/…

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    edited August 4
    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,793
    So Labour's big GE policy plank is, We're broke, let's spend £mega on another referendum?

    Sounds a winner.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    Good morning, everyone.

    It'd be a bold move. Might work out.

    But what would the referendum be for?

    Status quo ante? In, but not in Schengen? A single currency opt out? No rebate?

    F1: just glancing through my season predictions for a summer break podcast. Some looking sensible. A few looking rather rubbish. Turns out Sainz isn't beating Albon, and Verstappen won't win this year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    On topic, from the last market why would anyone bet 1/8 on something that doesn’t pay out for a decade?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    Just look at that Tory split.

    44% Remain

    47% Leave

    Crossover soon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    AnneJGP said:

    So Labour's big GE policy plank is, We're broke, let's spend £mega on another referendum?

    Sounds a winner.

    Well no, it isn't, and it likely won't be.

    But there is something of a democratic deficit on the issue, with no party speaking out for what appears to be the opinion of the majority.

    You can only credibly make the case that such a thing would be an unnecessary and damaging distraction (true in spades of Brexit itself) when at least one party comes out in support of the idea.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    AnneJGP said:

    So Labour's big GE policy plank is, We're broke, let's spend £mega on another referendum?

    Sounds a winner.

    In the grand scheme of government spending a plebiscite is cheap, I think the 2016 referendum cost was around £120 million.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning from Zhytomyr, Ukraine.

    Now that the air raid sirens have stopped sounding, the next task is to try and find a bar that can show the cricket!

    Whereabouts in relation to the front is Zhytomyr ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868

    Good morning, everyone.

    It'd be a bold move. Might work out.

    But what would the referendum be for?

    Status quo ante? In, but not in Schengen? A single currency opt out? No rebate?

    Is a party were to adopt the promise of a referendum as a GE policy, it's highly likely they'd leave that question open ahead if any election.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, from the last market why would anyone bet 1/8 on something that doesn’t pay out for a decade?

    So they can brag they tipped/backed a 20/1 winner.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979
    AnneJGP said:

    So Labour's big GE policy plank is, We're broke, let's spend £mega on another referendum?

    Sounds a winner.

    The spending cost of the last EU referendum was £129m. The UK govt spends about £3.5bn per day. It is not even a rounding error on the annual budget.

    The indirect cost of the referendum however....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    Yawn, usual drivel

    Nobody kmowspn what terms we would join but it will be pricey. The rejoin offer is to make yourself poorer and hand the country over to the prats who screwed it up over the last 30 years.

    Starmer's rejoin would just make the Red Wall walk away permanently and strengthen the Lib Dems its biggest supporters. Mind you he's stupid enough to try it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It'd be a bold move. Might work out.

    But what would the referendum be for?

    Status quo ante? In, but not in Schengen? A single currency opt out? No rebate?

    Is a party were to adopt the promise of a referendum as a GE policy, it's highly likely they'd leave that question open ahead if any election.

    I agree, but come a theoretical referendum there'd be the same very unhelpful vagueness of what the vote is for, or against. And, again, it might make things rather easier for staying out. Want interest rates controlled from Frankfurt? Want to pay for the CAP but receive no rebate? Etc etc.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,756
    Good idea, fortune favours the bold.

    The hitch is, I don't think Kier Starmer is bold?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868

    AnneJGP said:

    So Labour's big GE policy plank is, We're broke, let's spend £mega on another referendum?

    Sounds a winner.

    In the grand scheme of government spending a plebiscite is cheap, I think the 2016 referendum cost was around £120 million.
    I think Anne was thinking about the consequences of a yes vote ?

    A referendum would be quite cheap, and quick (beating the average public enquiry on both metrics), but rejoining might be neither.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979
    20/1 is not a bad price considering the wording of the bet is pretty vague. Doesn't have to be full membership or even actual membership, a referendum on starting the application process (perhaps with one of those mythical confirmatory referendums post negotiations later on) seems to qualify. And 2030 does sound much more likely than the neighbouring years.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,832
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It'd be a bold move. Might work out.

    But what would the referendum be for?

    Status quo ante? In, but not in Schengen? A single currency opt out? No rebate?

    Is a party were to adopt the promise of a referendum as a GE policy, it's highly likely they'd leave that question open ahead if any election.

    A referendum is not the way, and a promise of a referendum would be even more unwise.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,998
    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150
    I assume most people saw this last week, but makes me smile that they do things like this.

    The Coldstream Guards at Buckingham Palace playing Paranoid by Black Sabbath, on the day of Ozzy Osborne’s funeral.

    https://x.com/historyrock_/status/1950881300610519129?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,967
    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    Nigelb said:

    Yawn, usual drivel

    Nobody kmowspn what terms we would join but it will be pricey. The rejoin offer is to make yourself poorer and hand the country over to the prats who screwed it up over the last 30 years.

    Given the record since 2016, that's a laugh.

    The same people who screwed up the country have been in charge since 2016, The vote was not acted on until 2019 and bar the Johnson nonsense has still been under their control. The civil service, judiciary business lobbies are all the same and have not changed.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It'd be a bold move. Might work out.

    But what would the referendum be for?

    Status quo ante? In, but not in Schengen? A single currency opt out? No rebate?

    Is a party were to adopt the promise of a referendum as a GE policy, it's highly likely they'd leave that question open ahead if any election.

    I agree, but come a theoretical referendum there'd be the same very unhelpful vagueness of what the vote is for, or against. And, again, it might make things rather easier for staying out. Want interest rates controlled from Frankfurt? Want to pay for the CAP but receive no rebate? Etc etc.
    I don't think a future government would get away with such vagueness in an actual referendum.
    The terms would be absolutely critical.

    But "to be negotiated" - or even "terms to be put to a vote" - would not an indefensible position ahead of a GE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    Which is covered in the header/polling.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    I am going to ask Betfair to put up a market on who will join the EU first, the UK or Canada.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,566
    edited August 4

    Good idea, fortune favours the bold.

    The hitch is, I don't think Kier Starmer is bold?

    He is not, but if the Sun and Mail are in favour, there are violent pro EU riots and the Sultana/Corbyn vehicle is publicly agin*, he might be driven to it.

    *none of these will happen
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,967
    On topic, Starmer will pursue a closer relationship behind the scenes - as he's doing now.

    A second referendum would not win him a second term, it'd almost guarantee he'd lose it as he'd lose all his Reform facing marginals, whilst piling up votes in safe seats.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    Just look at that Tory split.

    44% Remain

    47% Leave

    Crossover soon.
    Is that current Tory voters or at the last GE?

    Would be intriguing to see by 2015 Tory voters.....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,756
    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    This is how he addresses the people who don't like Brexit but also don't really want to reopen the box.

    The only way to end the Brexit psychodrama is to end Brexit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437
    Some people would look at this statement and think he's senile, but no, apparently he's really, really sharp...

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump claims he’s cut drug prices by “1,500 percent”
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,690
    It's good politics and it would fucking obliterate the tories because the europhobe shaheeds would flock to the tattered turquoise banner of the Fukkers.

    However, it's radical, bold and brave. SKS is none of those things so he won't do it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,998

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    Which is covered in the header/polling.
    By the time 2029 comes around, public tolerance for the boat people will have gone beyond breaking point and the jaws will have narrowed on that question. The Tories politely tipped toed around the question for years. Bobby J just gave a full throated cry to leave the ECHR on Radio 4, the Tory shire members will catch up fast.

    It’s simplistic to add Tory + Reform but pretty clear it will turn into a 52-48 issue soon. Angela Raynor seems to be the only mainstream labour politician savvy enough to realise it. Who knows perhaps she’ll defenestrate Starmer, solve the issue and we’ll all vote for labour next time rather than the wet fart of a vote total he managed.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,793
    Also, if they're prepared to offer a referendum at all, wouldn't another Scottish referendum be more important?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    Just look at that Tory split.

    44% Remain

    47% Leave

    Crossover soon.
    Is that current Tory voters or at the last GE?

    Would be intriguing to see by 2015 Tory voters.....
    Not sure, the data tables haven't been published yet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,967
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's good politics and it would fucking obliterate the tories because the europhobe shaheeds would flock to the tattered turquoise banner of the Fukkers.

    However, it's radical, bold and brave. SKS is none of those things so he won't do it.

    And it's also dumb.

    Hypothetical referendum polling is notoriously unpredictable and can change radically in reality. Actual voting hinges on what's actually on the table, the quality of the campaigns, and the popularity of the government at the time they are held.

    Do you think Starmer is good at any of those things?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,761
    Very wet this morning in Newcastle
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,967

    Very wet this morning in Newcastle

    I know this polling must be exciting for you, but that's a bit of an overreaction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868

    Nigelb said:

    Yawn, usual drivel

    Nobody kmowspn what terms we would join but it will be pricey. The rejoin offer is to make yourself poorer and hand the country over to the prats who screwed it up over the last 30 years.

    Given the record since 2016, that's a laugh.

    The same people who screwed up the country have been in charge since 2016, The vote was not acted on until 2019 and bar the Johnson nonsense has still been under their control. The civil service, judiciary business lobbies are all the same and have not changed.

    So it's like communism, then ?
    It just hasn't been implemented right...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,967
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    Which is covered in the header/polling.
    By the time 2029 comes around, public tolerance for the boat people will have gone beyond breaking point and the jaws will have narrowed on that question. The Tories politely tipped toed around the question for years. Bobby J just gave a full throated cry to leave the ECHR on Radio 4, the Tory shire members will catch up fast.

    It’s simplistic to add Tory + Reform but pretty clear it will turn into a 52-48 issue soon. Angela Raynor seems to be the only mainstream labour politician savvy enough to realise it. Who knows perhaps she’ll defenestrate Starmer, solve the issue and we’ll all vote for labour next time rather than the wet fart of a vote total he managed.
    Most people will have only clocked two things: the word "Europe(an)" and the choice "leave" or "remain".

    The question is not being considered wholly independently at the moment.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,394
    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    The thing that - bizarrely - has seen a very significant uptick in support? And is more popular than re-joining the EU?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868

    I am going to ask Betfair to put up a market on who will join the EU first, the UK or Canada.

    Ask them to include Ukraine, too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    It is a fair point that the 53% is on the slightly weird question of if the 2016 poll was held today. I don't even know what that means is it on the assumption we never left? Or that we have left but can somehow return to 2016 status? Or we have left and are now applying to rejoin on unknown status?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    Nigelb said:

    I am going to ask Betfair to put up a market on who will join the EU first, the UK or Canada.

    Ask them to include Ukraine, too.
    Will do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,566
    AnneJGP said:

    Also, if they're prepared to offer a referendum at all, wouldn't another Scottish referendum be more important?

    I don’t think the circulatory systems of various PBers would survive two more referendums, the attrition rate would be Kursk level ( the first one).
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    I think Starmer broadly has the right idea in seeking closer ties without opening a can of worms. I remain unconvinced that rejoining the EU will solve many of the country’s problems, as much as I don’t think we should have left in the first place.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    edited August 4
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yawn, usual drivel

    Nobody kmowspn what terms we would join but it will be pricey. The rejoin offer is to make yourself poorer and hand the country over to the prats who screwed it up over the last 30 years.

    Given the record since 2016, that's a laugh.

    The same people who screwed up the country have been in charge since 2016, The vote was not acted on until 2019 and bar the Johnson nonsense has still been under their control. The civil service, judiciary business lobbies are all the same and have not changed.

    So it's like communism, then ?
    It just hasn't been implemented right...
    Fair analogy.

    The EU is top down driven in a French dirigisme fashion.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979

    I think Starmer broadly has the right idea in seeking closer ties without opening a can of worms. I remain unconvinced that rejoining the EU will solve many of the country’s problems, as much as I don’t think we should have left in the first place.

    Agreed. For rejoining EU to be more than a distraction I'd be wanting to see polling consistently in the sixties range for at least five years before it would make much sense.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,756
    OK, totally off-topic question but I know you guys are going to do an incredible job at this.

    There's an electricity company here called Octopus Energy that claims it can sell you "effectively 100% renewable" electricity. It seems to be a collaboration between the British energy company called Octopus and Tokyo Gas.
    https://octopusenergy.co.jp/

    Apparently the energy market here works a lot like the British one. There's a utility descended what used to be the electricity monopoly TEPCO (famous for the time one of their nuclear power stations got a bit explodey after a tsunami) that gets the power to my house over a piece of wire, but then I can choose to contract with one of a bunch of competing firms who in turn buy power supply contracts from people.

    My question is: If I switch from my current no-particular-opinion-about-renewables company to Octopus, will that actually cause (at the margin) more renewable energy to be deployed in Japan and less fossil fuels burned? Or am I just contributing to an accounting shuffle where power is produced in exactly the same way but some solar power is now notionally going to be that would otherwise have notionally been going to someone else, and the fossil fuels that would notionally have been burned by me are now notionally being burned by someone else instead?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's good politics and it would fucking obliterate the tories because the europhobe shaheeds would flock to the tattered turquoise banner of the Fukkers.

    However, it's radical, bold and brave. SKS is none of those things so he won't do it.

    I think, as an electoral strategy for Labour, it might only work in the context of their also having reduced substantially the figures for net annual immigration.

    If that were the case, they'd neutralise Reform's strongest attack line, while attacking them on a policy disaster which is the only other thing that really defines Reform. "Brexit failed the UK" might also help neutralise attacks on their economic performance.

    Of course the chances of Starmer delivering either thing aren't massive, but it's not a ridiculous idea for Labour's strategists to consider.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,967
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979
    Eabhal said:

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    The thing that - bizarrely - has seen a very significant uptick in support? And is more popular than re-joining the EU?
    I suspect if you ask people "Do you want to leave the ECHR?" you get a significant uptick simply by preceding it with "Do you want to rejoin the EU?".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    Scott_xP said:

    Some people would look at this statement and think he's senile, but no, apparently he's really, really sharp...

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump claims he’s cut drug prices by “1,500 percent”

    Given the amount he must be using if he *doesn't* have dementia I'm surprised prices aren't soaring due to a supply crunch.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,017
    Morning all :)

    Yes, well. I suspect one day we will seek to rejoin but not any time soon and not until it looks clearly in Britain's economic and political interests to rejoin. At the moment, it doesn't.

    Indeed, the Kensington Treaty suggests we can have perfectly harmonious bi-lateral and multi-lateral relationships with countries inside the EU without having to be part of the EU and no one wants to go back to the status quo ante bellum so to speak.

    The EU might demand we sign up to the Euro and Schengen as part of any new membership safe in the knowledge that would be unacceptable to the UK so we can build new relationships which work in an evolving world rather than trying to go back to something which patently didn't.

    I've no problem with us having good relations with France, Germany, Italy, Sweden or any of the others and it could be argued global developments are forcing European countries to co-operate and that in itself is no bad thing - there are plenty of common issues (the environment, security and immigration) where a European approach would be advantageous and we should be part of that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
  • RichardrRichardr Posts: 103

    I think Starmer broadly has the right idea in seeking closer ties without opening a can of worms. I remain unconvinced that rejoining the EU will solve many of the country’s problems, as much as I don’t think we should have left in the first place.

    Agreed. For rejoining EU to be more than a distraction I'd be wanting to see polling consistently in the sixties range for at least five years before it would make much sense.
    Agreed too. Although I think that leaving and even then going for a hard Brexit was the most stupid thing this country has done in recent times, having left there is no way we can think about rejoining, or the other countries would think about readmitting us, if there hasn't been a long term strong majority in favour. Just over 50% now can easily swing, not least if we went back to the position whereby the government blames the EU for almost every one of its own inadequacies.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,998
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
    Not one party is offering a referendum on hanging either.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,247
    Referendums don't get more sensible by being run twice.

    Nevertheless Brexit is a problem. No-one much thinks it works. As a policy it's a void. Membership of the EU is rejected but we don't have any consensus, or even thought, about what replaces it.

    Closer to the EU while staying outside it effectively means being a rule taker with limited influence and fewer benefits than membership. Is that what we want?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    The country are gagging for it and that's not including the 16-18 year olds who will vote rejoin unanimously. My guess is that Starmer has already got this in mind. He's got very close to France and Germany and Canada feels like it might want to be part of the club. Very few in the UK like Trump's America and people are only now wising up to the fact that the EU is as big a power block as the US and we were top dogs in it........

    The advertising would be so easy......... None of the excruciating Red Bus nonsense of Referendum !. Just 28/29 of the most beautiful and inspiring capitals in the world and we get free access to all of them for work or for play. It could look like the most alluring travel agency of all time.....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,979
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
    It is a sensible hail mary play if Labour are looking doomed come the next GE as suggested in the header. It would currently be a massive waste of energy and attention.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    Good morning all - I'm back in Storm Central after some time away.

    Politically I can see a lot of merit in Labour doing this. The scenario is that today's polls are largely still the shape of it in spring 2028: Reform will win, Labour winning get mullered, the Tories will end up 5th.

    A massive narrative change is needed. Something to utterly disrupt the "established" acceptance of PM Farage. Something which harnesses the visceral anger and discontentment out there and harnesses it for your benefit.

    Rejoin the EU. Fix the economy by going free trade. Smash the current mess by doing something different. If progressives campaign against things they usually lose. Campaign for something and they usually win - Brexit aside.

    So why not - Labour would be set to lose anyway. Roll the dice. Watch as Reform show us clearly what their version of Britain looks like - insular, jingoistic at best and openly racist at worst, with a cabal of cronies set to take over running things to their benefit, shouting abuse at best at people who disagree, openly attacking them at worse.

    Reform want to whip people into a mob electorally. Provoke them into whipping up actual mobs and I think that most normals will look at them in horror and choose to go back to normal - the quieter times of the past which are now looked at through rose-tinted geps.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,682
    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,722
    Richardr said:

    I think Starmer broadly has the right idea in seeking closer ties without opening a can of worms. I remain unconvinced that rejoining the EU will solve many of the country’s problems, as much as I don’t think we should have left in the first place.

    Agreed. For rejoining EU to be more than a distraction I'd be wanting to see polling consistently in the sixties range for at least five years before it would make much sense.
    Agreed too. Although I think that leaving and even then going for a hard Brexit was the most stupid thing this country has done in recent times, having left there is no way we can think about rejoining, or the other countries would think about readmitting us, if there hasn't been a long term strong majority in favour. Just over 50% now can easily swing, not least if we went back to the position whereby the government blames the EU for almost every one of its own inadequacies.
    Yes, most EU countries aren’t going to be overly keen on a Britain voting to rejoin by 52/48 continuing the half in/half out approach depending on the political winds at home demanding the UK govt blame/criticise adopt EU rules that could damage the UK.

    I also don’t see Canada joining as they protect their own trade positions brutally and the EU aren’t going to budge to dance to Canada’s tune and ultimately trade is more important to Canada than any sort of solidarity or vague benefits they might get from joining the EU that they don’t get from existing international groups they are in such as NATO. Also when Trump goes there is a chance Canada will want to rebuild close ties with the US and so won’t be overly keen being restrained by the EU in any way.

    The most sensible option is still the “outer ring” concept of a loose relationship for countries such as the Uk, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, maybe Canada, Morocco, Ukraine etc and any current EU countries who would like a looser relationship allowing the other EU countries to move ever closer as they wish.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
    Not one party is offering a referendum on hanging either.
    The last time there was a Parliamentary petition up on bringing back the death penalty, it got about 12,000 signatures.

    There are a number of senior Reform characters who support the restoration of the death penalty. I'm pretty sure they'd have it in their next manifesto id the believed it would net them votes.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,793
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
    Wasn't that also the case before and basically the reason Nigel Farage got involved?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,433
    Surprise, surprise: the Southport rioters were not all fine, upstanding individuals...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c201e9qq9g6o

    Perhaps if we want to keep people safe, we should keep migrants and deport the rioters.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,307

    I think Starmer broadly has the right idea in seeking closer ties without opening a can of worms. I remain unconvinced that rejoining the EU will solve many of the country’s problems, as much as I don’t think we should have left in the first place.

    I agree; I feel like this polling suggests Starmer could be being a bit less cautious about the closer ties than he seems to think he need to be, though.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,793

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    Indeed, as the example of Switzerland demonstrates clearly.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,991
    Only if Labour want to guarantee losing the 28/29 GE will they include an EU referendum in their manifesto. Despite what the polling says, another referendum would be an electoral disaster for them. So it won't happen - Starmer isn't stupid.

    If we want to rejoin the EU, it will have to be under a different mechanism than a referendum. More plausible would be a gradualist rapprochement over the next 10 years, say, followed by a straightforward manifesto pledge to seek to rejoin in the mid to late 2030s. No referendum - vote for us, and we'll try to rejoin.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    .
    AnneJGP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
    Wasn't that also the case before and basically the reason Nigel Farage got involved?
    The parallel is not lost on me.
    The odd thing is all the Brexiteers who seem to be trying not to see it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,868
    AnneJGP said:

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    Indeed, as the example of Switzerland demonstrates clearly.
    That's not working quite so well for them now.

    Confusion and anger in Switzerland - hit by highest tariffs in Europe
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c987l633zdgo
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    As an aside, just realised that Labour's policy is for 16 year olds to be able to vote, but not see any adult material online (if the OSA were even working as intended).

    Looking at a pair of tits does not require a greater sense of maturity than determining how the nation should be governed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    edited August 4
    Roger said:

    The country are gagging for it and that's not including the 16-18 year olds who will vote rejoin unanimously. My guess is that Starmer has already got this in mind. He's got very close to France and Germany and Canada feels like it might want to be part of the club. Very few in the UK like Trump's America and people are only now wising up to the fact that the EU is as big a power block as the US and we were top dogs in it........

    The advertising would be so easy......... None of the excruciating Red Bus nonsense of Referendum !. Just 28/29 of the most beautiful and inspiring capitals in the world and we get free access to all of them for work or for play. It could look like the most alluring travel agency of all time.....

    Not happening Roger.

    The right wing own the news media, including broadcast media, and OfCom have no teeth. It's their game now.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,149

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    That’s exactly the thinking that led to Brexit.

    Wouldn’t it be easier to abolish “the rabble”?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437

    The UK could be a success outside the EU.

    The UK could be more successful inside the EU.

    This has been the case since Thatcher
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,716
    I’m afraid the ships sailed on another EU referendum unless polling shows an overwhelming majority for that . And why would the EU even want us back?

    At this point Labours policy of closer links seems the way forward , still more can be done on that front and a youth mobility scheme is especially important for Remainers who deeply regret the lost opportunities for that group post Brexit .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,150

    As an aside, just realised that Labour's policy is for 16 year olds to be able to vote, but not see any adult material online (if the OSA were even working as intended).

    Looking at a pair of tits does not require a greater sense of maturity than determining how the nation should be governed.

    How is one supposed to know which tits to vote for, if one can’t even see them first?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,298
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Yes, well. I suspect one day we will seek to rejoin but not any time soon and not until it looks clearly in Britain's economic and political interests to rejoin. At the moment, it doesn't.

    Indeed, the Kensington Treaty suggests we can have perfectly harmonious bi-lateral and multi-lateral relationships with countries inside the EU without having to be part of the EU and no one wants to go back to the status quo ante bellum so to speak.

    The EU might demand we sign up to the Euro and Schengen as part of any new membership safe in the knowledge that would be unacceptable to the UK so we can build new relationships which work in an evolving world rather than trying to go back to something which patently didn't.

    I've no problem with us having good relations with France, Germany, Italy, Sweden or any of the others and it could be argued global developments are forcing European countries to co-operate and that in itself is no bad thing - there are plenty of common issues (the environment, security and immigration) where a European approach would be advantageous and we should be part of that.

    Good morning

    I agree with this, and we have no idea whatsoever how the world will be trading in the next few years and in these circumstances the ideal relationship would be for the EU and TPPA to merge

    As I said yesterday Canada is a founding member of TPPA, and certainly is not going to leave that trading group and of course we are also members
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,298
    Roger said:

    The country are gagging for it and that's not including the 16-18 year olds who will vote rejoin unanimously. My guess is that Starmer has already got this in mind. He's got very close to France and Germany and Canada feels like it might want to be part of the club. Very few in the UK like Trump's America and people are only now wising up to the fact that the EU is as big a power block as the US and we were top dogs in it........

    The advertising would be so easy......... None of the excruciating Red Bus nonsense of Referendum !. Just 28/29 of the most beautiful and inspiring capitals in the world and we get free access to all of them for work or for play. It could look like the most alluring travel agency of all time.....

    Canada cannot join the EU whilst being in the TPPA and the rest is just wish casting
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,179

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    Just look at that Tory split.

    44% Remain

    47% Leave

    Crossover soon.
    Good morning everyone. As we weren’t taught in Geography, warm wet westerly winds in summer.

    Were the percentages above based on recalled GE vote or current voting intention? Many Tories are now Reformers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,433
    Scott_xP said:

    The UK could be a success outside the EU.

    The UK could be more successful inside the EU.

    This has been the case since Thatcher
    That's my point. EU membership is, to a large extent, an irrelevance to success or failure. We could succeed within or without; we could fail within or without.

    It's telling that Brexit has occurred, and many of the same people who were, ten years ago, droning on about how the EU was dragging the country down, have now moved on to migrants and trans people.

    It's never *their* fault.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,002

    The UK could be a success inside the EU.
    The UK could be a success outside the EU.

    If we have failures, it's got exceptionally little to do with the extranational organisations we're members of. It's much more to do with the decisions we make within our own powers.

    And whose who either want to either be in or out of the EU are using that as a 'magic wand' excuse for not looking at the fundamental issues this country needs to sort out for itself.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,861
    Good morning everyone, and thanks for the header.

    This is one area where 16-17s may tilt towards the Government?

    (The other rapid adaptation that is required is easy transporting of dogs across borders. If the umpteen fees involved can be reduced, that will show up in the pocket.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    That’s exactly the thinking that led to Brexit.

    Wouldn’t it be easier to abolish “the rabble”?
    You might have to wait until Nigel becomes President for that to transpire.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,294
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Some people would look at this statement and think he's senile, but no, apparently he's really, really sharp...

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump claims he’s cut drug prices by “1,500 percent”

    Given the amount he must be using if he *doesn't* have dementia I'm surprised prices aren't soaring due to a supply crunch.
    Drugs in the US are significantly overpriced so it's an easy target to reduce costs. Whether it will directly lead to the shortage of new drugs that they threaten is another issue given the amount of work being undertaken in China and India.

    Passed Chillam Castle the other day. A Jacobean mansion now owned by an Indian pharmaceutical billionaire (Alembic). The rewards for exporting to the US (and other places).

    https://www.tatler.com/gallery/chilham-castle-kent-for-sale-15-million-knight-frank
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,433

    The UK could be a success inside the EU.
    The UK could be a success outside the EU.

    If we have failures, it's got exceptionally little to do with the extranational organisations we're members of. It's much more to do with the decisions we make within our own powers.

    And whose who either want to either be in or out of the EU are using that as a 'magic wand' excuse for not looking at the fundamental issues this country needs to sort out for itself.
    Indeed. Which is why those who campaigned for decades to leave the EU, blaming the EU for all our ills, should hang their heads in shame.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,929
    I was 50/50 stay/leave myself and only made my mind up on the way to the polling station. The biggest negative was that I thought we would f*ck up our leaving. The problem with all the people saying "hard Brexit" "Norway" etc was that it was not in our hands, the EU had no leaving process and it would be subject to negotiation, so you could not predict what would come out of it.

    The EU has already started one thing it always should have, which is do something about the Schengen border. I always thought that should be an EU responsibility and not left to members, Schengen is a great idea but needs a ring of steel outside.

    But the big issue is the democratic defect. I don't much like the way the UK is being run, but I dislike it less than I did 15 months ago, and you know what I got to vote. If I don't like the way the EU is run, I have no say.

    Of course if we ever rejoin it will have to be on a basis of freedom of movement, Schengen and the Euro, and no opt-out, and that might be enough to turn people back to "no"
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,760
    edited August 4

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    In theory it could, but in practice it would be politically unacceptable for Parliament to redo a decision the people took against Parliament's wishes without a referendum.

    Even holding a second referendum would certainly give a huge boost to Reform.

    I don't think there's much chance of a referendum being won once the terms of rejoining are known, which would almost certainly include joining the Euro and Schengen and losing most of the rebate we had. The main reason for the Rejoin lead in the polls is because Leaver propagandists have got what they wanted and have moved on to other issues since 2019, letting the argument go by default,while Remoaners have kept Remoaning,
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,451
    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,294
    Nigelb said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    Indeed, as the example of Switzerland demonstrates clearly.
    That's not working quite so well for them now.

    Confusion and anger in Switzerland - hit by highest tariffs in Europe
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c987l633zdgo
    Seems a bit odd to levy different levels of tariffs on countries within the same bloc. It's a bit like the restrictions of items going into Russia. People find ways if there is a margin in it. Seems performative at best.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811

    Surprise, surprise: the Southport rioters were not all fine, upstanding individuals...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c201e9qq9g6o

    Perhaps if we want to keep people safe, we should keep migrants and deport the rioters.

    There was an article last week which said two out of five of those prosecuted had previously been involved in domestic violence.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,861
    edited August 4

    Zahawi down the fashy rabbit hole now. I’m old enough to remember when for about 5 minutes he was future pm material on here.

    https://x.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1952101257365053688?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    My piccie for the day. What is it with the current generation of washed-up former Conservative politicians, that they snuffle up whatever garbage they are fed? Even I hoped they would have started thinking again rationally by now.

    Various people have been putting the fake claim out, such as Cllr Laila Cunningham, who swapped to RefUK last month and posts fiction repeatedly. But believing Isobel Oakeshott?
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,081

    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.

    He also main evented Summerslam for the WWE many years ago in a shockingly poor match against Bam Bam Bigelow. 93 IIRC.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,081
    Roger said:

    Surprise, surprise: the Southport rioters were not all fine, upstanding individuals...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c201e9qq9g6o

    Perhaps if we want to keep people safe, we should keep migrants and deport the rioters.

    There was an article last week which said two out of five of those prosecuted had previously been involved in domestic violence.
    It was that old soaks podcast.

    What do you expect ?

    People,with a predilection for violence turn up,where there’s violence expected. No different to a football game. Many were former/current football hooligans.

    The EDL grew out of football hooliganism.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,102
    Eabhal said:

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    The thing that - bizarrely - has seen a very significant uptick in support? And is more popular than re-joining the EU?
    Perhaps it is the OSA which has concentrated people's minds on civil liberties and increased support for the ECHR.
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