Skip to content
Options

Is this is proof that David Cameron is the most popular PM ever? – politicalbetting.com

245

Comments

  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,712

    spudgfsh said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this not simply because David is the best name ever? My father was called David, my son is called David, my son in law Dave, 2 of my best friends are David, it’s pretty much ubiquitous.

    more likely more Davids are because of Beckham than Cameron. not that many would be because of either.

    The only name which increased in popularity because of a person which we can be certain of is Kylie (did the same in Aus too)
    Florence.

    Florence wasn't used as a name before Florence Nightingale. (She was named that for being born there.)
    That’s not correct, there are a number of examples just in the British Isles which I won’t bother posting here but it was definitely used as a woman’s first name well before Nightingale.

    Yours sincerely,

    Friends of Mary Seacole.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,416

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    If/when he come back to the UK isn't he likely to have his collar felt again?
    If the UK authorities want him, they can extradite him. He's only in Spain.
    To be fair, I don't know anyone who does want him.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,152
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Back to boring old politics for a moment - interesting local council by-election result in Barking & Dagenham last evening.

    Labour held the seat of Thames View on a 24% turnout - result from vote 2012, changes from the 2022 election:

    Lucy Sara LEE (Lab) 334 (36.11%, -25.93%)
    Paul David POWLESLAND (Green) 277 (29..95%, New)
    Lewis Reece HOLMES (Reform) 197 (21.5%, New)
    Andrew BOFF (Conservative) 117 (12.65%, -10.62%)


    Strong numbers for Green and Reform and the old duopoly taking a right kicking. Does this tell us anything about the locals in London next year? We know there are a number of inner London Boroughs where the Greens are polling strongly against Labour but oddly enough Reform coming in can act as a spoiler and this may help Labour hold seats (and that's before we get any kind of presence from the Corbyn/Sultana party on the ground). The plethora of alternatives which may be available for those wanting to kick the old duopoly parties may end up maintaining the duopoly rather than breaking it.

    Apparently the Conservatives had the obligatory Facebook pic with the candidate and volunteers to create the illusion of activity (might not have been an illusion) but it did little for them.

    The Thames View Estate is a 1950s development to the south of the A13 between that road and the river - it was built primarily as a new estate for the former inhabitants of Creekmouth, who had been forced to evacuate during the 1953 flood.

    The voters are nowhere near forgiving the Tories for their disastrous years. Labour’s disastrous year has destroyed their popularlity. Who’s left? The Lib Dems and Reform.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,446

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    If/when he come back to the UK isn't he likely to have his collar felt again?
    If the UK authorities want him, they can extradite him. He's only in Spain.
    If his whole USP was anti-Muslim, I bet he would be living it up in Dubai.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,948
    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,992
    edited August 1
    MattW said:

    I see Trump is doing the Tariff Tango AGAIN....

    Meanwhile Bessent has said Trump's child savings accounts are a way to privatise social security in America.

    No wonder they are trying to rig the electoral boundaries for 2026.
    Currently happening in Texas - +5 Republican seats, reportedly.

    https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/republicans-release-proposed-new-texas-congressional-map-could-add-5-gop-seats/
    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also weighed in Wednesday, commenting: “We’re not going to sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal this nation’s future. I’ve been in active talks with local and national leaders, and in the coming days we’ll meet to align on our next move.”

    That's the New York Dems who gerrymandered the boundaries in 2024 to give themselves an extra four districts.

    Altogether now.

    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,606
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    The ONS list of names is quite interesting.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalesbabynamesstatisticsboys

    Isaac and Ezra at 37 and 38. Is this from African Christians, who often favour Old Testament names?

    I see Leon is sinking fast, only scraping in at 100.

    It has always amused me when I meet a black man named Enoch.
    The DT only say in the small print that that is for England and Wales only. Of course, Gordon and Keir would be less often used than for the UK as a whole.
    London rags just assume England is the UK
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,446

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,416
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Back to boring old politics for a moment - interesting local council by-election result in Barking & Dagenham last evening.

    Labour held the seat of Thames View on a 24% turnout - result from vote 2012, changes from the 2022 election:

    Lucy Sara LEE (Lab) 334 (36.11%, -25.93%)
    Paul David POWLESLAND (Green) 277 (29..95%, New)
    Lewis Reece HOLMES (Reform) 197 (21.5%, New)
    Andrew BOFF (Conservative) 117 (12.65%, -10.62%)


    Strong numbers for Green and Reform and the old duopoly taking a right kicking. Does this tell us anything about the locals in London next year? We know there are a number of inner London Boroughs where the Greens are polling strongly against Labour but oddly enough Reform coming in can act as a spoiler and this may help Labour hold seats (and that's before we get any kind of presence from the Corbyn/Sultana party on the ground). The plethora of alternatives which may be available for those wanting to kick the old duopoly parties may end up maintaining the duopoly rather than breaking it.

    Apparently the Conservatives had the obligatory Facebook pic with the candidate and volunteers to create the illusion of activity (might not have been an illusion) but it did little for them.

    The Thames View Estate is a 1950s development to the south of the A13 between that road and the river - it was built primarily as a new estate for the former inhabitants of Creekmouth, who had been forced to evacuate during the 1953 flood.


    Good result for the Greens, as you say. And especially as they beat Reform Wonder what the other two (?) yesterday will show.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,416

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
    100m Euros.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,895

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    Who is paying ?

    Surprised it hasn't been stopped due to climate change "incompatibility" by the courts tbh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,446
    edited August 1

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
    100m Euros.
    Not RMB? And I reckon 100m will be for the beaver habitat pool...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,446
    edited August 1
    A ruling by the UK's most senior judges later could pave the way for millions of motorists to claim compensation for motor finance mis-selling.

    The Supreme Court will decide whether or not to uphold an earlier ruling which found that hidden commission payments to car dealers were unlawful. Around nine in 10 new cars are bought on finance, so a decision could lead to billions of pounds being claimed by people who bought cars over many years. But the industry says it did nothing wrong, leaving lenders, drivers and the government waiting for clarity from the Supreme Court later. Many thousands of car buyers are already in line for payouts, but this case could widen the pool of potential claimants significantly.

    Major lenders, such as Lloyds, have set aside huge amounts of money in preparation for such a scenario, with the possibility of payouts approaching the levels seen during the payment protection insurance (PPI) scandal.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j1jkyjl1xo
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,403
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain how the third runway will end up with a £49bn cost? That just seems so out of this world for what is a land purchase and a few kilometres of tarmac.

    Can anyone explain to me how we are considering spending all that money on Heathrow, which is a bloody fool place for an airport anyway, and not on HS2/HS3 where it would make a major difference to the national economy outside London?

    Ah, hold on, now I get it.
    Well the state isn't spending this money tbf, it's supposedly coming from Heathrow shareholders with no subsidy. If HS2/3 can attract the money from private investors then I'm sure no one would have any issues with it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,895
    edited August 1
    Compared to HS2, you do see how Heathrow is going to get the cash back mind. Increase of 66m passengers a year - £38/additional passenger over 20 years or £15 over 50 years.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,928
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    The ONS list of names is quite interesting.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalesbabynamesstatisticsboys

    Isaac and Ezra at 37 and 38. Is this from African Christians, who often favour Old Testament names?

    I see Leon is sinking fast, only scraping in at 100.

    It has always amused me when I meet a black man named Enoch.
    The DT only say in the small print that that is for England and Wales only. Of course, Gordon and Keir would be less often used than for the UK as a whole.
    London rags just assume England is the UK
    Due to assymetric devolution, an awful lot of stuff is just England and Wales
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,426
    rcs1000 said:

    This is fake news.

    The number of babies named Kier has soared, and yet no one is talking about it.

    It's because they can't spell it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,992
    So student tuition fees have increased by £285 per year.

    Compare how that has been accepted to the tantrums about WFA.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,446
    edited August 1

    So student tuition fees have increased by £285 per year.

    Compare how that has been accepted to the tantrums about WFA.

    Yes but now its all just mythical money.....its just adds to the debt pile that virtually nobody pays off.

    The biggest issue these days in students cost is accommodation, it is eye wateringly expensive. Yes it better standard, but while student fees have lagged behind inflation over the past 15 years, fees for staying in halls has exploded.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,426

    spudgfsh said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this not simply because David is the best name ever? My father was called David, my son is called David, my son in law Dave, 2 of my best friends are David, it’s pretty much ubiquitous.

    more likely more Davids are because of Beckham than Cameron. not that many would be because of either.

    The only name which increased in popularity because of a person which we can be certain of is Kylie (did the same in Aus too)
    Florence.

    Florence wasn't used as a name before Florence Nightingale. (She was named that for being born there.)
    Allegedly, also Kevin (after Kevin Costner) and Khaleesi and Wendy. I think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,895
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain how the third runway will end up with a £49bn cost? That just seems so out of this world for what is a land purchase and a few kilometres of tarmac.

    Can anyone explain to me how we are considering spending all that money on Heathrow, which is a bloody fool place for an airport anyway, and not on HS2/HS3 where it would make a major difference to the national economy outside London?

    Ah, hold on, now I get it.
    Well the state isn't spending this money tbf, it's supposedly coming from Heathrow shareholders with no subsidy. If HS2/3 can attract the money from private investors then I'm sure no one would have any issues with it.
    Are they paying for the M25 stuff ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,535
    viewcode said:

    spudgfsh said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this not simply because David is the best name ever? My father was called David, my son is called David, my son in law Dave, 2 of my best friends are David, it’s pretty much ubiquitous.

    more likely more Davids are because of Beckham than Cameron. not that many would be because of either.

    The only name which increased in popularity because of a person which we can be certain of is Kylie (did the same in Aus too)
    Florence.

    Florence wasn't used as a name before Florence Nightingale. (She was named that for being born there.)
    Allegedly, also Kevin (after Kevin Costner) and Khaleesi and Wendy. I think.
    !

    Kevin of Glendalough

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_of_Glendalough
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,895

    A ruling by the UK's most senior judges later could pave the way for millions of motorists to claim compensation for motor finance mis-selling.

    The Supreme Court will decide whether or not to uphold an earlier ruling which found that hidden commission payments to car dealers were unlawful. Around nine in 10 new cars are bought on finance, so a decision could lead to billions of pounds being claimed by people who bought cars over many years. But the industry says it did nothing wrong, leaving lenders, drivers and the government waiting for clarity from the Supreme Court later. Many thousands of car buyers are already in line for payouts, but this case could widen the pool of potential claimants significantly.

    Major lenders, such as Lloyds, have set aside huge amounts of money in preparation for such a scenario, with the possibility of payouts approaching the levels seen during the payment protection insurance (PPI) scandal.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j1jkyjl1xo

    Never took any PPI related loans, never bought a car on finance and all my diesels were either too old, too new or bought at the wrong point for the emissions stuff.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,992

    So student tuition fees have increased by £285 per year.

    Compare how that has been accepted to the tantrums about WFA.

    Yes but now its all just mythical money.....its just adds to the debt pile that virtually nobody pays off.
    Which would mean its a future loss to the country when that money is written off.

    Though I wouldn't be surprised to see debt payment periods extended and the income above which the payments are made frozen.

    One way or another that financial hit will be paid by the young people of today.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,717
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this not simply because David is the best name ever? My father was called David, my son is called David, my son in law Dave, 2 of my best friends are David, it’s pretty much ubiquitous.

    I believe that in medieval England something like 40% of British men were named John, a name now almost extinct, though derivatives like Jack are still popular.
    I once sang in a choir where every man except me was called John.

    Which was not at all confusing.

    (I should stress it wasn't a very large choir, but still.)
    Big John, Little John, Medium John, Fast John...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,992

    A ruling by the UK's most senior judges later could pave the way for millions of motorists to claim compensation for motor finance mis-selling.

    The Supreme Court will decide whether or not to uphold an earlier ruling which found that hidden commission payments to car dealers were unlawful. Around nine in 10 new cars are bought on finance, so a decision could lead to billions of pounds being claimed by people who bought cars over many years. But the industry says it did nothing wrong, leaving lenders, drivers and the government waiting for clarity from the Supreme Court later. Many thousands of car buyers are already in line for payouts, but this case could widen the pool of potential claimants significantly.

    Major lenders, such as Lloyds, have set aside huge amounts of money in preparation for such a scenario, with the possibility of payouts approaching the levels seen during the payment protection insurance (PPI) scandal.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j1jkyjl1xo

    I'm sure I've lost out by never having an endowment mortgage, PPI or buying a car on finance.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,416

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this not simply because David is the best name ever? My father was called David, my son is called David, my son in law Dave, 2 of my best friends are David, it’s pretty much ubiquitous.

    I believe that in medieval England something like 40% of British men were named John, a name now almost extinct, though derivatives like Jack are still popular.
    I once sang in a choir where every man except me was called John.

    Which was not at all confusing.

    (I should stress it wasn't a very large choir, but still.)
    Big John, Little John, Medium John, Fast John...
    Surely Tenor John, Bass John etc?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,407
    boulay said:

    spudgfsh said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this not simply because David is the best name ever? My father was called David, my son is called David, my son in law Dave, 2 of my best friends are David, it’s pretty much ubiquitous.

    more likely more Davids are because of Beckham than Cameron. not that many would be because of either.

    The only name which increased in popularity because of a person which we can be certain of is Kylie (did the same in Aus too)
    Florence.

    Florence wasn't used as a name before Florence Nightingale. (She was named that for being born there.)
    That’s not correct, there are a number of examples just in the British Isles which I won’t bother posting here but it was definitely used as a woman’s first name well before Nightingale.

    Yours sincerely,

    Friends of Mary Seacole.
    Very little.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,410
    ...

    MattW said:

    I see Trump is doing the Tariff Tango AGAIN....

    Meanwhile Bessent has said Trump's child savings accounts are a way to privatise social security in America.

    No wonder they are trying to rig the electoral boundaries for 2026.
    Currently happening in Texas - +5 Republican seats, reportedly.

    https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/republicans-release-proposed-new-texas-congressional-map-could-add-5-gop-seats/
    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also weighed in Wednesday, commenting: “We’re not going to sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal this nation’s future. I’ve been in active talks with local and national leaders, and in the coming days we’ll meet to align on our next move.”

    That's the New York Dems who gerrymandered the boundaries in 2024 to give themselves an extra four districts.

    Altogether now.

    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.

    It is also happening in Florida.

    I accept the Dems, particularly in New York have historically levelled the playing field in their favour, but this is industrial scale corruption to ensure a permanent MAGA GOP control of Congress.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    edited August 1

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Back to boring old politics for a moment - interesting local council by-election result in Barking & Dagenham last evening.

    Labour held the seat of Thames View on a 24% turnout - result from vote 2012, changes from the 2022 election:

    Lucy Sara LEE (Lab) 334 (36.11%, -25.93%)
    Paul David POWLESLAND (Green) 277 (29..95%, New)
    Lewis Reece HOLMES (Reform) 197 (21.5%, New)
    Andrew BOFF (Conservative) 117 (12.65%, -10.62%)


    Strong numbers for Green and Reform and the old duopoly taking a right kicking. Does this tell us anything about the locals in London next year? We know there are a number of inner London Boroughs where the Greens are polling strongly against Labour but oddly enough Reform coming in can act as a spoiler and this may help Labour hold seats (and that's before we get any kind of presence from the Corbyn/Sultana party on the ground). The plethora of alternatives which may be available for those wanting to kick the old duopoly parties may end up maintaining the duopoly rather than breaking it.

    Apparently the Conservatives had the obligatory Facebook pic with the candidate and volunteers to create the illusion of activity (might not have been an illusion) but it did little for them.

    The Thames View Estate is a 1950s development to the south of the A13 between that road and the river - it was built primarily as a new estate for the former inhabitants of Creekmouth, who had been forced to evacuate during the 1953 flood.


    Good result for the Greens, as you say. And especially as they beat Reform Wonder what the other two (?) yesterday will show.
    Reform gain from Labour in Warrington
    LD hold in North Devon from Reform second (votes for all parties roughly in line with May 25 county vote)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,753
    Circus rolls on...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye4840zdgo

    "BBC faces mounting calls to pull MasterChef series"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,083

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    The “overstepping the mark” aka “committing imprisonable offences” is a key part of his shtick.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,948

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
    It's a private project. Providing the government grant planning, DCO, with CPO powers, and there's no judicial review they will just get on with it.

    Heathrow are good at projects, see T5 and new T2
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,410
    edited August 1
    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as bitter and barking. He didn't have a good word to say about any of the last five Conservative Prime Ministers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,024
    carnforth said:

    Circus rolls on...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye4840zdgo

    "BBC faces mounting calls to pull MasterChef series"

    I wonder just how rubbish the woman who has asked to be edited out was. I doubt her morals would have led to the same request had she gone far in the competition (and, we can assume she didn't go far, as editing her out wouldn't have worked).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    edited August 1

    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as barking mad.
    Hes always been a bit word salad.
    Wycombe might be quite interesting next time and won on a low share, its not strong Reform territory, Labour on the backslide and the traditional seat winners the Tories also struggling. MiC MRP has it a dead heat Tory-Reform on 24%, edging Tory
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,720
    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,314

    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as bitter and barking. He didn't have a good word to say about any of the last five Conservative Prime Ministers.
    In a lot of ways, understandable.

    The Brexit vote was driven by a sense that Britain wasn't working well for its people, and that Brexit would improve things.

    It's very hard to make the case that Britain is working better for its people now than it was in 2016.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,790

    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as bitter and barking. He didn't have a good word to say about any of the last five Conservative Prime Ministers.
    In a lot of ways, understandable.

    The Brexit vote was driven by a sense that Britain wasn't working well for its people, and that Brexit would improve things.

    It's very hard to make the case that Britain is working better for its people now than it was in 2016.
    While I don't disagree, there's also concerning developments elsewhere, perhaps more so. The AfD's rise in Germany, Trump 2: Trump Harder etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,083

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
    100m Euros.
    My variant on Boris Island would be quicker and cheaper.

    That is, borrow concrete gravity platform technology. Imagine a dining table - rectangle, 4 legs. Now imagine another “top” on the floor. Imagine it in concrete - 350m long, 100m wide, 100m high. The bottom is actually a series of cells, which contain enough air to make the thing float. Say a million tons each

    You build them in dry docks, float them out, and sink them on the sea floor. Anywhere vaguely shallow - in 50m of water they will have a freeboard of 50m.

    Access to the mainland is via trains in tunnels. Again, big concrete sections, ferried out and dropped into a trench on the sea floor. Connect up and pump out. This one is standard engineering.

    Bring the new airport online gradually. Plenty of time to move the businesses around Heathrow.

    Heathrow itself becomes a new town - forest of towers, surrounded by suburbs, business parks etc. Complete with massive amount of pre existing public transport connections.

    Done right, you could turn a profit on the whole thing.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,350
    tlg86 said:

    carnforth said:

    Circus rolls on...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye4840zdgo

    "BBC faces mounting calls to pull MasterChef series"

    I wonder just how rubbish the woman who has asked to be edited out was. I doubt her morals would have led to the same request had she gone far in the competition (and, we can assume she didn't go far, as editing her out wouldn't have worked).
    Surely the logical move would have been to edit out Wallace and Torode?
    A day of editing with Al Murray and a broomhandle recreating the lines then hacked into the video badly as artistic statement.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,152
    tlg86 said:

    carnforth said:

    Circus rolls on...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye4840zdgo

    "BBC faces mounting calls to pull MasterChef series"

    I wonder just how rubbish the woman who has asked to be edited out was. I doubt her morals would have led to the same request had she gone far in the competition (and, we can assume she didn't go far, as editing her out wouldn't have worked).
    It should be shown on a porn channel instead.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,992

    ...

    MattW said:

    I see Trump is doing the Tariff Tango AGAIN....

    Meanwhile Bessent has said Trump's child savings accounts are a way to privatise social security in America.

    No wonder they are trying to rig the electoral boundaries for 2026.
    Currently happening in Texas - +5 Republican seats, reportedly.

    https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/republicans-release-proposed-new-texas-congressional-map-could-add-5-gop-seats/
    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also weighed in Wednesday, commenting: “We’re not going to sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal this nation’s future. I’ve been in active talks with local and national leaders, and in the coming days we’ll meet to align on our next move.”

    That's the New York Dems who gerrymandered the boundaries in 2024 to give themselves an extra four districts.

    Altogether now.

    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.

    It is also happening in Florida.

    I accept the Dems, particularly in New York have historically levelled the playing field in their favour, but this is industrial scale corruption to ensure a permanent MAGA GOP control of Congress.
    Even if Texas did gerrymander an extra five districts for the GOP - and I've read that this is a very risky gerrymander which would backfire in a bad year for the GOP, which 2026 may well be - that's not going to give them a permanent House majority.

    If the Dems win the overall House popular vote in 2026 they're likely to get a majority, if they win the overall popular vote by 5% or more then they certainly will get a majority.

    A more important issue is the malign effects of gerrymandering which increase polarisation nationally and even more between individual states.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,071
    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,712
    Dopermean said:

    tlg86 said:

    carnforth said:

    Circus rolls on...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye4840zdgo

    "BBC faces mounting calls to pull MasterChef series"

    I wonder just how rubbish the woman who has asked to be edited out was. I doubt her morals would have led to the same request had she gone far in the competition (and, we can assume she didn't go far, as editing her out wouldn't have worked).
    Surely the logical move would have been to edit out Wallace and Torode?
    A day of editing with Al Murray and a broomhandle recreating the lines then hacked into the video badly as artistic statement.
    Yes, considering what they can do with CGI, bringing dead actors “back to life” or ageing them, they could have replaced Wallace and Torode with Anthony Bourdain and Fanny Craddock for the most unlikely pairing since Wallace and Torode.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,795

    MattW said:

    I see Trump is doing the Tariff Tango AGAIN....

    Meanwhile Bessent has said Trump's child savings accounts are a way to privatise social security in America.

    No wonder they are trying to rig the electoral boundaries for 2026.
    Currently happening in Texas - +5 Republican seats, reportedly.

    https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/republicans-release-proposed-new-texas-congressional-map-could-add-5-gop-seats/
    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also weighed in Wednesday, commenting: “We’re not going to sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal this nation’s future. I’ve been in active talks with local and national leaders, and in the coming days we’ll meet to align on our next move.”

    That's the New York Dems who gerrymandered the boundaries in 2024 to give themselves an extra four districts.

    Altogether now.

    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.
    Our gerrymandering good, their gerrymandering bad.

    I think you are trying to both-sides an issue where the Republican behaviour is evidently worse, and has become even worse under Trump.

    Here, for example, is an assessment of the 2024 Congressional maps by the (nonpartisan) Brennan Center.

    https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-gerrymandering-tilts-2024-race-house

    Clearly there are process problems, and also cultural problems.

    The question for the USA is how they are going to develop a less politically manipulable system, and what happens in the meantime.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,350

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    If/when he come back to the UK isn't he likely to have his collar felt again?
    If the UK authorities want him, they can extradite him. He's only in Spain.
    To be fair, I don't know anyone who does want him.
    I assume there's a sizeable cost in extraditing someone, internet suggests threshold is a crime that would result in a 1 year custodial sentence in both countries.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    boulay said:

    Dopermean said:

    tlg86 said:

    carnforth said:

    Circus rolls on...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye4840zdgo

    "BBC faces mounting calls to pull MasterChef series"

    I wonder just how rubbish the woman who has asked to be edited out was. I doubt her morals would have led to the same request had she gone far in the competition (and, we can assume she didn't go far, as editing her out wouldn't have worked).
    Surely the logical move would have been to edit out Wallace and Torode?
    A day of editing with Al Murray and a broomhandle recreating the lines then hacked into the video badly as artistic statement.
    Yes, considering what they can do with CGI, bringing dead actors “back to life” or ageing them, they could have replaced Wallace and Torode with Anthony Bourdain and Fanny Craddock for the most unlikely pairing since Wallace and Torode.
    Id like to see a Doctor Who style multi Delia presentation - CGI of Delia through the years. Culminating in Drunk Delia from Carrow Road shouting 'where are you? let's be having you' at the contestants
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,717

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,350

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    Poor workload management for fast bowlers yet again. They really need to learn how to rotate the fast bowlers.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,407
    edited August 1
    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,717
    Dopermean said:

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    Poor workload management for fast bowlers yet again. They really need to learn how to rotate the fast bowlers.
    That's not correct in this case - he injured himself diving to stop a boundary.

    You can criticise the short turn rounds between tests but Stokes would have missed the next test if it had been two weeks apart, not three days. He probably injured himself because he was carrying the rest of the bowling attack, not because of too short a turn-around.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,369
    a
    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    I think this is roughly correct.

    I think there is also a great deal of recently bias - e.g. theft from the person is up significantly in the last two years, but still significantly lower than 20 years ago.

    Also social media - in my patch violent crime is a small percentage of what it once was, but most people think it has increased massively. That's because the videos of those crimes now end up on facebook, and so his last point about crime close to home now applies to the whole city, rather than just your street.

    The number of people killed and seriously injured on the roads continues to fall too, thanks to measures like 20mph limits, but dashcams are everywhere and the videos get thousands of views.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,041

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    Kenilworth, twinned with the non middly bits of York
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,795
    edited August 1

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    The “overstepping the mark” aka “committing imprisonable offences” is a key part of his shtick.
    Yes - I think that he treats beating people up as a PR stunt, then victim-claims. It's similar to "the far left counter demonstrators caused the violence ( ie we had to attack them". It's also a storyline for supporters.

    In the current Underground Incident he was browbeating a witness in the video "You saw him coming at me, didn't you?"

    Unfortunately there reportedly was another witness who observed him saying "Come at me, then ....".

    And he walked away from a man he had knocked unconscious, who was hospitalised, and went abroad.

    Due back (allegedly) for September 17. But he has got off at least one with this general pattern.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,350

    Dopermean said:

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    Poor workload management for fast bowlers yet again. They really need to learn how to rotate the fast bowlers.
    That's not correct in this case - he injured himself diving to stop a boundary.

    You can criticise the short turn rounds between tests but Stokes would have missed the next test if it had been two weeks apart, not three days. He probably injured himself because he was carrying the rest of the bowling attack, not because of too short a turn-around.
    True in Woakes's case, but they've had to rest Carse and Archer for this test in addition to Stokes being injured.
    They should have rested Archer earlier in the series, then he could have been fresh for this test rather than playing tired in the previous test.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,426

    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as barking mad.
    The show is called "Politically" and is split into groups, the latest being "Reflections". It and the Steve Baker episode are below

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002gg6x
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00249zx/episodes/guide


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,717
    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    Poor workload management for fast bowlers yet again. They really need to learn how to rotate the fast bowlers.
    That's not correct in this case - he injured himself diving to stop a boundary.

    You can criticise the short turn rounds between tests but Stokes would have missed the next test if it had been two weeks apart, not three days. He probably injured himself because he was carrying the rest of the bowling attack, not because of too short a turn-around.
    True in Woakes's case, but they've had to rest Carse and Archer for this test in addition to Stokes being injured.
    They should have rested Archer earlier in the series, then he could have been fresh for this test rather than playing tired in the previous test.
    Are you actually following this closely? Archer has only just come back from 4 years of injury woes. Carse has played four matches on some very good batting tracks.

    There is a case for going back to longer gaps between matches. I'm gutting that the last test will be done before August really gets going. But in the modern era its unlikely to happen and your assertion about the injuries being because of this don't really stack up. Glenn Mcgrath didn't miss two tests in 2005 because of a short turnaround.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,083
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    The “overstepping the mark” aka “committing imprisonable offences” is a key part of his shtick.
    Yes - I think that he treats beating people up as a PR stunt, then victim-claims. It's similar to "the far left counter demonstrators caused the violence ( ie we had to attack them". It's also a storyline for supporters.

    In the current Underground Incident he was browbeating a witness in the video "You saw him coming at me, didn't you?"

    Unfortunately there reportedly was another witness who observed him saying "Come at me, then ....".

    And he walked away from a man he had knocked unconscious, who was hospitalised, and went abroad.

    Due back (allegedly) for September 17. But he has got off at least one with this general pattern.
    The personal violence polishes the hard man image.

    The stuff that really pushes his online value is organising the violent racist demos and getting arrested for interfering with trials etc..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,720
    Eabhal said:

    a

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    I think this is roughly correct.

    I think there is also a great deal of recently bias - e.g. theft from the person is up significantly in the last two years, but still significantly lower than 20 years ago.

    Also social media - in my patch violent crime is a small percentage of what it once was, but most people think it has increased massively. That's because the videos of those crimes now end up on facebook, and so his last point about crime close to home now applies to the whole city, rather than just your street.

    The number of people killed and seriously injured on the roads continues to fall too, thanks to measures like 20mph limits, but dashcams are everywhere and the videos get thousands of views.
    Yes. Social media definitely plays a part

    I had to turn off Notifications on my Nextdoor app because it gave the genuinely disturbing impression that Camden is a 24/7 hellhole of anarchy, burglary and random machete attacks. Which it isn’t, despite some edginess

    However the rise in disorder IS real (I would add in rapes and sexual assaults)

    J B Murdoch is an exemplary journalist. He actually pursues stories, via data, and digs up real trends. He doesn’t have an agenda - he follows the numbers and presents them with clarity
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240

    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as barking mad.
    Hes always been a bit word salad.
    Wycombe might be quite interesting next time and won on a low share, its not strong Reform territory, Labour on the backslide and the traditional seat winners the Tories also struggling. MiC MRP has it a dead heat Tory-Reform on 24%, edging Tory
    Yougov MRP by contrast has Wycombe staying Labour with Reform second and the Tories third

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52437-first-yougov-mrp-since-2024-election-shows-a-hung-parliament-with-reform-uk-as-largest-party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    edited August 1
    Eabhal said:

    a

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    I think this is roughly correct.

    I think there is also a great deal of recently bias - e.g. theft from the person is up significantly in the last two years, but still significantly lower than 20 years ago.

    Also social media - in my patch violent crime is a small percentage of what it once was, but most people think it has increased massively. That's because the videos of those crimes now end up on facebook, and so his last point about crime close to home now applies to the whole city, rather than just your street.

    The number of people killed and seriously injured on the roads continues to fall too, thanks to measures like 20mph limits, but dashcams are everywhere and the videos get thousands of views.
    There are also offences of causing death by careless driving and causing serious injury by dangerous or careless driving which did not exist even as recently as 2005.

    Back then it was only causing death by dangerous driving, dangerous driving, careless driving or causing death by careless driving while under the influence of drink or drugs
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Foxy said:

    The ONS list of names is quite interesting.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalesbabynamesstatisticsboys

    Isaac and Ezra at 37 and 38. Is this from African Christians, who often favour Old Testament names?

    I see Leon is sinking fast, only scraping in at 100.

    Ezra is all about George, innit?

    Isaac is because people are realising physics* is awesome.

    *yes, I know, many other strings to that particular bow
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,083
    In catching up with what everyone knows….

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04r7l455zeo

    How did people think that Deliveroo riders afford to live in London?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565

    MattW said:

    FPT: a bit of real politics.

    I'd say that's Ant Middleton ruled out of becoming Reform's Mayoral candidate then - it's a very Tommy Robinson-esque post, almost like he wants to be booted from Reform and join whatever Robinson's vehicle is.

    On "Tommy Robinson's vehicle".

    I'd potentially expect Tommy Robinson (or a Tommy Robinson alike, or a henchman) to attempt a takeover in Reform at some stage, but the timing is unclear, and depends on how it goes for Farage.

    On the other side the party is set up to avoid Farage being challenged, but in part he's also an old man in a hurry, and there are a significant minority amongst the Reform support base who like TR.

    Farage has trimmed in taking on the groups much more extreme than himself eg via the vetting system which he has now relaxed. That is a change of habit. AFAICS he is not taking on people who (imo at least) are problem individuals, unless there is criminality (eg Court appearances, arrests) or the front pages of populist media involved.
    Tommy Robinson doesn't want to run a political party. That requires doing work. He has got himself a nice gig where he gets paid by the Canadian bloke to be a "citizen journalist" i.e. retweet a load of stuff, plus all the donations he gets, meaning he can sit on his sun lounger 48 weeks a year. If he could stop himself overstepping the mark he would be absolutely sorted for life.
    If/when he come back to the UK isn't he likely to have his collar felt again?
    If the UK authorities want him, they can extradite him. He's only in Spain.
    Do we though? Want him? Maybe an arrest warrant should he ever return, but not actually fetching him back is the ideal option...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,682
    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,720

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
    100m Euros.
    My variant on Boris Island would be quicker and cheaper.

    That is, borrow concrete gravity platform technology. Imagine a dining table - rectangle, 4 legs. Now imagine another “top” on the floor. Imagine it in concrete - 350m long, 100m wide, 100m high. The bottom is actually a series of cells, which contain enough air to make the thing float. Say a million tons each

    You build them in dry docks, float them out, and sink them on the sea floor. Anywhere vaguely shallow - in 50m of water they will have a freeboard of 50m.

    Access to the mainland is via trains in tunnels. Again, big concrete sections, ferried out and dropped into a trench on the sea floor. Connect up and pump out. This one is standard engineering.

    Bring the new airport online gradually. Plenty of time to move the businesses around Heathrow.

    Heathrow itself becomes a new town - forest of towers, surrounded by suburbs, business parks etc. Complete with massive amount of pre existing public transport connections.

    Done right, you could turn a profit on the whole thing.
    Much easier to vastly expand Luton, which is ideally placed for London AND rUK - by the M25/M1, 24 minutes from St Pancras - and Eurostar

    Apparently there’s a hill in the way but just level it - if you can bury a motorway you can flatten a hill. Also this would mean the demolition of much of Luton, so everyone wins
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    edited August 1
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The popularity of "Boris" was most likely correlated to the number of Russian Oligarchs he welcomed to Mayfair with fast track citizenship.

    I listened to a fascinating interview yesterday on BBC R4 between James Naughtie and Steve Baker. I have never before come across such remarkable self-belief. Baker explained that he really has no desire to return to frontline politics because he's enjoying running rightwing think tanks, but he feels he has to make the sacrifice because he is the only politician capable of leading Britain to those post Brexit sunny uplands that he promised. Well worth a listen.

    Well he certainly isn't winning Wycombe back on current polls
    The show is called Politics - Reflections, and it is on iPlayer. Baker was remarkably candid, but also came across as barking mad.
    Hes always been a bit word salad.
    Wycombe might be quite interesting next time and won on a low share, its not strong Reform territory, Labour on the backslide and the traditional seat winners the Tories also struggling. MiC MRP has it a dead heat Tory-Reform on 24%, edging Tory
    Yougov MRP by contrast has Wycombe staying Labour with Reform second and the Tories third

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52437-first-yougov-mrp-since-2024-election-shows-a-hung-parliament-with-reform-uk-as-largest-party
    Yes, an interesting seat. 4% between the 3 parties with MiC and 7% with YG, seat taken on a vote share in the 20s with both.
    Will be a tight fight if polling does not shift
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,928

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
    It's just the general rule that you can have a substitute fielder.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,849
    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    I was going to add the same - York outer was (until last year) a complete ring surrounding York City
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,717
    edited August 1
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    I was going to add the same - York outer was (until last year) a complete ring surrounding York City
    There's nothing wrong with a doughnut arrangement in my opinion. If you have a city with the right size for a constituency, like York, it sometimes makes sense to have the neighbouring seat as a doughnut. The same thing happened in Colchester at one time, which was better than the previous arrangement of splitting Colchester down the middle.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,720
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
    Nearly. I’m in my Lusitanian phase, I’m sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tavira, Portugal

    I may have some melon in a minute, as I watch the cricket
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,663

    It's £21bn for the third runway and M25 works and infrastructure, £12bn for the new terminal and infrastructure links, and £15bn for redevelopment of the existing Heathrow airport including expansion of its terminals.

    With the need for heavy planning, legal, environmental and compliance costs here, and the cost of capital, inflation, and contingency it's probably about right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o

    In 2099 when it is finally built, what will the cost be....
    100m Euros.
    My variant on Boris Island would be quicker and cheaper.

    That is, borrow concrete gravity platform technology. Imagine a dining table - rectangle, 4 legs. Now imagine another “top” on the floor. Imagine it in concrete - 350m long, 100m wide, 100m high. The bottom is actually a series of cells, which contain enough air to make the thing float. Say a million tons each

    You build them in dry docks, float them out, and sink them on the sea floor. Anywhere vaguely shallow - in 50m of water they will have a freeboard of 50m.

    Access to the mainland is via trains in tunnels. Again, big concrete sections, ferried out and dropped into a trench on the sea floor. Connect up and pump out. This one is standard engineering.

    Bring the new airport online gradually. Plenty of time to move the businesses around Heathrow.

    Heathrow itself becomes a new town - forest of towers, surrounded by suburbs, business parks etc. Complete with massive amount of pre existing public transport connections.

    Done right, you could turn a profit on the whole thing.
    The UK has got to start to take infrastructure seriously. Liverpool-Hull and London- Scotland lines should have already happened- instead Sunak decided to pay more than the construction cost to cut down HS2 to a pathetic 120km. Heathrow and Gatwick are basically obsolete and our motorway network is a 50mph joke.

    If the Faroe Islands can link all of their islands by tunnel, why can´t Orkney and Shetland? Even the Channel Tunnel is now hitting capacity limits.

    Meanwhile in Poland, the New CPK hub airport, 25 mile from Warsaw will be started next year, and the first phase is scheduled to open in 2032-
    cost €32bn. This comes after the construction of a countrywide motorway and expressway network of over 3000km since 2010, with a further 1500km to follow before the end of the 2030s. High speed rail is slower, but the full line from Gdansk to Katowice via Warsaw is now mostly 200km/h. They plan long term and cut costs by doing so.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,790
    On Masterchef, there are YouTubers who make excellent mixes of characters and videogames:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_rY6gn7GNM

    No reason a skilled editor couldn't do the same for Masterchef :p
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,000
    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    There has always been this perception about actual, reported and perceived levels of crime. We discussed phone thefts the other day and along with shoplifting and fare evasion, they are probably the crimes which people notice and which anger them.

    There's a point here about how limited Police resources are allocated. It seems violent crimes (and I don't exclude phone theft as being violent as it can be) get the resources and other forms of crime get far fewer. Now, you might argue the issue is the limited nature of the resources - fine, should we put 1p on Income Tax to be spent on recruiting more officers, reopening operational stations and the like?

    Or should the Police be told to spend less time on murders, rapes and drug gangs and spend more on phone thefts, fare evasion and shoplifting? It's not a binary choice but if you police by consent then if the public want more effort on shoplifting and phone thefts, it means less effort elsewhere.

    The other side of this is the notion of civility which you raise. How do you "teach" civility - how is that inculcated into the public consciousness? My experience is most people are civil and will help in an emergency - I saw a poor elderly man fall in the High Street a few days back and within seconds there were a dozen people helping him.

    There have always been a minority who deride civility and place their personal desires (or even survival) above such notions. That can be as a result of addiction or mental health issues or a range of other factors. The question I always ask myself is if I were homeless and broke and addicted to God knows what, would I steal to survive/feed my addiction? Yes, I would.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,024

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
    It's just the general rule that you can have a substitute fielder.
    They shouldn't be allowed to put on the gloves. No idea why the rule was changed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,041

    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    Kenilworth, twinned with the non middly bits of York
    I used to live in Kenilworth and work in Leamington.

    Great kebabs from the take away by the Sainsbury’s car park. They made their own naan for them.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,158
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
    Nearly. I’m in my Lusitanian phase, I’m sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tavira, Portugal

    I may have some melon in a minute, as I watch the cricket
    Why ruin a good melon by watching cricket. In Portugal ffs.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    Kenilworth, twinned with the non middly bits of York
    I used to live in Kenilworth and work in Leamington.

    Great kebabs from the take away by the Sainsbury’s car park. They made their own naan for them.

    As Fearghal might say A Good Kebab These Days Is Hard To Find
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,000
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
    Nearly. I’m in my Lusitanian phase, I’m sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tavira, Portugal

    I may have some melon in a minute, as I watch the cricket
    Does this mean you're going to be torpedoed by a World War 1 German submarine? Intriguing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,717

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
    It's just the general rule that you can have a substitute fielder.
    Absolutely - my argument (as a keeper myself) is that keeping is a specialist role in the same way that bowling is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,071
    tlg86 said:

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
    It's just the general rule that you can have a substitute fielder.
    They shouldn't be allowed to put on the gloves. No idea why the rule was changed.
    I thought it was part of the safety concerns.

    Now in England if a keeper is standing up to the stumps then they have to wear a helmet and this was one of the supplementary changes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,041

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    Kenilworth, twinned with the non middly bits of York
    I used to live in Kenilworth and work in Leamington.

    Great kebabs from the take away by the Sainsbury’s car park. They made their own naan for them.

    As Fearghal might say A Good Kebab These Days Is Hard To Find
    It is if you live in the North East.

    In Brum they were dime a dozen and awesome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,717
    England strike after 10 mins.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,236
    edited August 1
    AnneJGP said:

    I wonder whether the headcount for Liz includes Elizabeth and other derivatives.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Quite.

    The equivalent would be measuring numbers of unfortunate babies being Christened 'Dave'.

    The establisment still doing Truss dirty! Tsk tsk.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,122
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    This is Texas's current 18th congressional district, to show you how ridiculous gerrymandering already is. It's the green below:


    Kenilworth and Southam styley
    York Outsr says hi.
    Kenilworth, twinned with the non middly bits of York
    I used to live in Kenilworth and work in Leamington.

    Great kebabs from the take away by the Sainsbury’s car park. They made their own naan for them.

    As Fearghal might say A Good Kebab These Days Is Hard To Find
    It is if you live in the North East.

    In Brum they were dime a dozen and awesome.
    Norwich had one decent babbery. Long gone. Mind you, I've not gone kebab hunting in several years
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,719
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
    Nearly. I’m in my Lusitanian phase, I’m sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tavira, Portugal

    I may have some melon in a minute, as I watch the cricket
    Why ruin a good melon by watching cricket. In Portugal ffs.
    That'll be him watching the preparation of the second course.

    https://www.portugalresident.com/insects-on-the-menu-in-portugal-from-today/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,024

    tlg86 said:

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
    It's just the general rule that you can have a substitute fielder.
    They shouldn't be allowed to put on the gloves. No idea why the rule was changed.
    I thought it was part of the safety concerns.

    Now in England if a keeper is standing up to the stumps then they have to wear a helmet and this was one of the supplementary changes.
    Like a prop in rugby? Do you now need to be a qualified keeper to do it in England? What if there isn't a spare qualified keeper at a County game? Does it not continue?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,717
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
    Nearly. I’m in my Lusitanian phase, I’m sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tavira, Portugal

    I may have some melon in a minute, as I watch the cricket
    Why ruin a good melon by watching cricket. In Portugal ffs.
    Because cricket is the single most exciting thing in life.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,384
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    Hang on lads, he's entering the lutial phase.
    Nearly. I’m in my Lusitanian phase, I’m sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tavira, Portugal

    I may have some melon in a minute, as I watch the cricket
    Why ruin a good melon by watching cricket. In Portugal ffs.
    Because cricket is the single most TEDIOUS thing in life.
    :innocent:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,071
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    England pace bowler Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the decisive fifth Test against India after suffering a shoulder injury on the opening day at The Oval.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cp3eze5l1gko

    So a wicket keeper can be replaced (for fielding). But bowlers and batsmen cannot be replaced to do their specialist skill set.

    I know cricket doesn't want to go down the road of substitutes taking an active role but I don't understand why there is an exception for keepers. As PB's will know, keeping is a specialist art.
    It's just the general rule that you can have a substitute fielder.
    They shouldn't be allowed to put on the gloves. No idea why the rule was changed.
    I thought it was part of the safety concerns.

    Now in England if a keeper is standing up to the stumps then they have to wear a helmet and this was one of the supplementary changes.
    Like a prop in rugby? Do you now need to be a qualified keeper to do it in England? What if there isn't a spare qualified keeper at a County game? Does it not continue?
    No you don’t need to be a qualified keeper, just wear the helmet when standing up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,717
    India all out 218.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,717
    Andy_JS said:

    India all out 218.

    Is my feed slow? Or is that a prediction!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,071
    Andy_JS said:

    India all out 218.

    Fake News.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,276
    WRT partisan gerrymandering, however disgraceful it is at district and State level, because both sides do it, it results in strikingly proportionate results at national level.

    So, in 2018, The Democrats won 53% of the vote, and 54% of the seats. The Republicans won 45% and 46%.

    In 2020, 50% to 47%, results in 51% to 49% in seats.

    In 2022 and 2024, 47% to 50% results in 49% to 51%, in both elections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,446
    edited August 1
    Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight will write the forthcoming James Bond film, Amazon MGM Studios has confirmed. The movie, which will be directed by Dune's Denis Villeneuve, is currently in development and being overseen by the studio after long-serving masterminds Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson stood down in February.

    Its not James Bond anymore its Jimmy Bond, yerrrrrrr alllllrighhhhhttt....

    "I don't pay for suits. My suits are on the house or the house burns down."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,717
    I thought India were 8 down at the start of play for some reason.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,769
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    a

    Leon said:

    Excellent article by the estimable John Burns Murdoch at the FT. An actual attempt to answer the paradox of why most of us feel crime is surging whereas the actual stats say serious crime - eg murder - is falling (and it is falling across the world)

    Are the people stupid? Are @kinabalu and @NickPalmer et al correct to laugh at hoi polloi worrying about criminality?

    No, the people are not stupid. Crimes of DISORDER - shoplifting, theft, phone theft, dog bites, dangerous driving, and others - are absolutely soaring. The breakdown of civility is real

    It is also much more personal, now. Murders are generally done by murderous types in murderous places - away from the public gaze. Crimes of Disorder happen everywhere to everyone

    https://on.ft.com/45rfdlD

    I think this is roughly correct.

    I think there is also a great deal of recently bias - e.g. theft from the person is up significantly in the last two years, but still significantly lower than 20 years ago.

    Also social media - in my patch violent crime is a small percentage of what it once was, but most people think it has increased massively. That's because the videos of those crimes now end up on facebook, and so his last point about crime close to home now applies to the whole city, rather than just your street.

    The number of people killed and seriously injured on the roads continues to fall too, thanks to measures like 20mph limits, but dashcams are everywhere and the videos get thousands of views.
    Yes. Social media definitely plays a part

    I had to turn off Notifications on my Nextdoor app because it gave the genuinely disturbing impression that Camden is a 24/7 hellhole of anarchy, burglary and random machete attacks. Which it isn’t, despite some edginess

    However the rise in disorder IS real (I would add in rapes and sexual assaults)

    J B Murdoch is an exemplary journalist. He actually pursues stories, via data, and digs up real trends. He doesn’t have an agenda - he follows the numbers and presents them with clarity
    There’s something about NextDoor that turns people into paranoid curtain twitchers convinced that the new postie is casing their house for future burglary.

    Two things can be true simultaneously:

    1) Crime as a whole & especially violent crime against the person is down dramatically over the past decades & that’s something we should celebrate. People claiming that the UK as a whole is a violent basket case are completely wrong.

    2) Other crimes can be rising & not getting the attention they should because of pressure on police time which has (often for political reasons) been focused on other things. Shoplifting & fraud are both up significantly according to the crime surveys - the former is at record levels on the published figures, never mind the stuff that shops don’t even bother to report because they’ve given up on anything being done. Phone theft in the street is a common experience in some parts of the country.

    Telling people that their experience of (2) is wrong because of (1) is wildly unhelpful & just radicalises people into the arms of far-right nationalists.
Sign In or Register to comment.