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Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,591
edited July 25 in General
Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts – politicalbetting.com

In lots of ways this sums up strength and challenge for Corbyn’s new Party – there is clearly a motivated group who have been waiting for a party like this and will give it energy. But the risk is confusing that highly engaged activist base who’ll come to rallies with mass appeal https://t.co/jS6IQ515BV

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    "Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts"

    Disappointing, I thought we were going to be talking about that South Park episode.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,992

    "Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts"

    Disappointing, I thought we were going to be talking about that South Park episode.

    I thought it was something to do with the new ID rules.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,932
    DavidL said:

    "Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts"

    Disappointing, I thought we were going to be talking about that South Park episode.

    I thought it was something to do with the new ID rules.
    You two need to get your minds out of the gutter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,932
    edited July 25
    People from Dore are the best.

    Joe Root, take a bow for overtaking Punter, next up Sachin.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,253
    Absolutely. And there will be a huge amount of self-righteous huffing from Their Party that if only the centre-left had done the right things, this wouldn't have happened.

    As with the populist right, the key principle is that nothing is ever their fault.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,272
    I think Your Party will probably win few seats, while costing Labour (or the Greens) more... but the delight of political betting is that I think there's a chance that they do well. I think they could match Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 22% and, in a fragmented party system, that could win a lot of seats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    Having Stokes and Root in the same team is quite something
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,294
    I am up for "an alternative to inequality, poverty and war", unfortunately Corbyn offers none of that. If we want permanent opposition, endless debate and capitulation to Russia, he's our man.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,010
    An quiet evening in for @Leon ?

    Scarred for Life
    @ScarredForLife2
    ·
    2h
    Blimey, BBC Four, what have we done to deserve this? Next Wednesday 30 July, the late evening schedule is devoted to THREADS and THE WAR GAME, two of the most horrifying and bleakly depressing films ever made. There will be documentaries, too. Get the snacks in!

    https://x.com/ScarredForLife2/status/1948710590886695251
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    edited July 25
    Corbyn won 40%.
    Half of them (not a stretch, since they are overwhelmingly still alive, and have voted), and it would be very interesting indeed.
    After all. He's been proved thoroughly wrong by the stellar success of all the policies and leaders tried since.
    Hasn't he?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,272

    I am up for "an alternative to inequality, poverty and war", unfortunately Corbyn offers none of that. If we want permanent opposition, endless debate and capitulation to Russia, he's our man.

    We should perhaps not think of this as Corbyn's party, but as much Sultana's. Maybe she offers the same, but she resonates with those who liked Corbyn and some who didn't like Corbyn.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,733
    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,932
    Bugger, Sir Lewis Hamilton has just shat the bed there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    As the chart shows the new Corbyn party will make inroads with young voters and students especially. To gain lots of seats though it would need PR. The seats where it will poll strongest ie the inner cities and university towns are largely safe Labour anyway not marginals, reducing the damage to Starmer.

    Also of interest is the fact the poll figures show the only age groups Reform do not lead the Kemi Tories other than over 75s is 18 to 24s
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    FPT

    "This is Bazball mark II. 432 runs from 101 overs so over 4 runs an over. Traditionally on days when a side has batted like this the last session can see an acceleration as the bowlers and fielders are tired. I would not be surprised to see 6 an over after tea and another 150 -180 runs added by the close."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017

    Bugger, Sir Lewis Hamilton has just shat the bed there.

    He has come out in support for YourParty?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,228
    It'll come down to the ground game rather than the air game. Reform may have the BBC in it's pocket but these guys have a motivated and usually educated following who can put an argument across in non-Daily Mail ways. It's also a convenient place for Labour to send those on the naughty step.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    Battlebus said:

    It'll come down to the ground game rather than the air game. Reform may have the BBC in it's pocket but these guys have a motivated and usually educated following who can put an argument across in non-Daily Mail ways. It's also a convenient place for Labour to send those on the naughty step.

    Hardly, GB news may be in Reform’s pocket but the BBC is firmly Starmer Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    One thing we can say for the Corbyn party is it will have no intention of reaching for the centre ground
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    edited July 25
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,522
    edited July 25
    I always think 20 mins is too short for the tea break. By the time the players get back in the dressing room there's only about 10 left and they need to be on the field a few mins before play begins, so they probably only get about 5 mins. It's also too short for spectators to stand in queues for drinks.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,228
    Trump taking aim at Vance's backers -plus everyone else he hates. Seems to have missed off Hilary though.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5420102-trump-on-maxwell-pardon/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    edited July 25

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,992

    People from Dore are the best.

    Joe Root, take a bow for overtaking Punter, next up Sachin.

    Probably not today though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,522
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Hoping there are tickets left for Sunday.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,010
    Battlebus said:

    Trump taking aim at Vance's backers -plus everyone else he hates. Seems to have missed off Hilary though.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5420102-trump-on-maxwell-pardon/

    "I have nothing to do with the guy"

    Just incredible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,294
    ...

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    You are deluded. Corbyn's new vehicle simply furnishes Farage or the Tories with a win.

    Are you putting your trust in a man who lost two general elections and got the Labour Party censured by the ECHR as racist?

    Putting a far right Government into Downing Street by default on the back of the comfortable Corbyn's ideology buys not one nurse's salary or even a free school meal.

    Dream on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    C'mon England. Time for bazball
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Looking across the modelling data any rain looks patchy. A man of your experience knows better to avoid being gulled by weather apps with 40% showers...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,473

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    How likely is it that, along with the ideologues, they will attract some decent managers, organisers, and agents? People who will be essential to get beyond just being a protest movement or disorganised rabble?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,567

    Battlebus said:

    Trump taking aim at Vance's backers -plus everyone else he hates. Seems to have missed off Hilary though.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5420102-trump-on-maxwell-pardon/

    "I have nothing to do with the guy"

    Just incredible.
    "Trump says he hasn’t thought about pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell"

    IOW, it's already being planned.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Looking across the modelling data any rain looks patchy. A man of your experience knows better to avoid being gulled by weather apps with 40% showers...
    I've learned to err on the side of pessimism when it comes to weather

    ESPECIALLY WEATHER AT OLD TRAFFORD DURING A TEST
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Looking across the modelling data any rain looks patchy. A man of your experience knows better to avoid being gulled by weather apps with 40% showers...
    I've learned to err on the side of pessimism when it comes to weather

    ESPECIALLY WEATHER AT OLD TRAFFORD DURING A TEST
    Normally I'd agree with you but 2025 has a different feel about summer to normal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088

    ...

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    You are deluded. Corbyn's new vehicle simply furnishes Farage or the Tories with a win.

    Are you putting your trust in a man who lost two general elections and got the Labour Party censured by the ECHR as racist?

    Putting a far right Government into Downing Street by default on the back of the comfortable Corbyn's ideology buys not one nurse's salary or even a free school meal.

    Dream on.
    Look at the chart, Corbyn’s new party would not even be in the top three in any age group over 26.

    It will have an impact in inner cities and university towns but marginal seats not so much and even less with tactical voting
  • novanova Posts: 876

    I think Your Party will probably win few seats, while costing Labour (or the Greens) more... but the delight of political betting is that I think there's a chance that they do well. I think they could match Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 22% and, in a fragmented party system, that could win a lot of seats.

    The latest More In Common poll had the Greens with 35% if the Gen Z vote - around twice the % of Labour in second place.

    Clearly a small sample, and likely unweighted in any way, but compared with the polling in the header, it suggest that many of the targets for Corbyn's party are Green already. I don't think they'll get the momentum needed to push much above where the Green's are now.

    For me, the more likely big question is whether they're the Greens who refused to vote Labour in the last election, or if they'll vote tactically to keep out Reform/Tories.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    Battlebus said:

    It'll come down to the ground game rather than the air game. Reform may have the BBC in it's pocket but these guys have a motivated and usually educated following who can put an argument across in non-Daily Mail ways. It's also a convenient place for Labour to send those on the naughty step.

    Do give over, pretty much everyone hates politicians banging on their door....you knock on my door and you definitely won't get my vote even if I had planned to vote for you before that. No one I know has a good word for door knockers
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,010
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    When do we go Bazball. Past 475? 500?

    I think Stokes is ready for lift off.
    Yes, he wants to motor

    This is most pleasing. Slap it about and get to 520, bowl India out for 198. Series won. Doddle
    England need to be in the mindset that they’ll bat once. Go full Bazball and declare tonight at 600 with five overs left.

    If it ends up being only 550 and 10 overs left, no cigar…
    Yes. Looks like rain could wipe out most of Sunday, til about 3pm ish anyway
    Metoffice doesn't suggest that.
    I use WeatherPro. Think it's a German app using EU data. Usually pretty good for Europe inc UK. Less good worldwide
    Apple weather says around 20% chance of rain.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,308
    HYUFD said:

    It will have an impact in inner cities and university towns...

    ...isn't that basically Labour's heartland these days?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    Anyone offering a double on rain at Old Trafford and Spa-Francochamps on Sunday?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,522
    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Jesus effing Nora
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    It will have an impact in inner cities and university towns...

    ...isn't that basically Labour's heartland these days?

    Seats even Corbyn won in 2019 yes but Starmer more than doubled Corbyn’s seat total
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Reform plus Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland now
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Wow, Reform has turned up in Scotland?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,992
    Oh dear 444/4 Quadruple Nelsons.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    Labour destroyed in Scotland. Again
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,272
    HYUFD said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Reform plus Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland now
    Labour + LibDem ahead of SNP too.

    Green + Conservative ahead of LibDem.

    Sorry, what is this game where we randomly add two parties' vote share together?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,253
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    You are deluded. Corbyn's new vehicle simply furnishes Farage or the Tories with a win.

    Are you putting your trust in a man who lost two general elections and got the Labour Party censured by the ECHR as racist?

    Putting a far right Government into Downing Street by default on the back of the comfortable Corbyn's ideology buys not one nurse's salary or even a free school meal.

    Dream on.
    Look at the chart, Corbyn’s new party would not even be in the top three in any age group over 26.

    It will have an impact in inner cities and university towns but marginal seats not so much and even less with tactical voting
    That's the point.

    The Corbana party will win minimal seats in its own right. But it will probably nab enough votes to flip quite a few seats from Lab to Ref/Con.

    Splitters, as the saying goes.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,528
    Leon said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Jesus effing Nora
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Thar is a poll for Malc to spit out hs haggis, I must say there.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,216
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Wasn't Boris absolutely hated in Scotland? So what does Nigel have that Boris didn't?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,932
    Leon said:

    Labour destroyed in Scotland. Again

    So you’re stopping slagging off YouGov now they are producing results you like.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,434
    edited July 25
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Not much evidence of that much loved Yoon meme of SNP transfers to Reform.
    SLab otoh..
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,308
    Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️@LeftieStats
    🚨 NEW | SNP lead by 7pts in Scotland

    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via @YouGov / @ScotVoting, 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)
    Girl in a jacket

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,522
    Sandpit said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Wow, Reform has turned up in Scotland?
    They turned up at the Hamilton by-election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,932
    Hang on, this is the Scottish Election Study.

    IIRC they don’t weight to past vote recall, more to demographics.

    Anyone got the tables?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,686
    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,434

    HYUFD said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Reform plus Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland now
    Labour + LibDem ahead of SNP too.

    Green + Conservative ahead of LibDem.

    Sorry, what is this game where we randomly add two parties' vote share together?
    Wait till he starts adding undecideds to his preferred parties.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .

    Why is he so loathed?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,065

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    A new party of the genuine left can't avoid hard choices about economic and fiscal matters. So, a couple of important questions to start:

    1) Will Jezza's party sign up to MMT (modern monetary theory) economics
    2) Where will it stand in relation to honouring government debt
    3) What would be its plan for balancing the (current account) books. A better answer tham making Sultana the CoE is required.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Not much evidence of that much loved Yoon meme of SNP transfers to Reform.
    SLab otoh..
    29% would be the lowest SNP voteshare at a UK general election since 2010, clearly some voters who voted SNP from 2015 to 2019, then went Labour in 2024 are now voting Reform
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    Stokes deserves a 50. Then they can Do Bazball
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    edited July 25

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    You are deluded. Corbyn's new vehicle simply furnishes Farage or the Tories with a win.

    Are you putting your trust in a man who lost two general elections and got the Labour Party censured by the ECHR as racist?

    Putting a far right Government into Downing Street by default on the back of the comfortable Corbyn's ideology buys not one nurse's salary or even a free school meal.

    Dream on.
    Look at the chart, Corbyn’s new party would not even be in the top three in any age group over 26.

    It will have an impact in inner cities and university towns but marginal seats not so much and even less with tactical voting
    That's the point.

    The Corbana party will win minimal seats in its own right. But it will probably nab enough votes to flip quite a few seats from Lab to Ref/Con.

    Splitters, as the saying goes.
    The Tories and Reform split the vote on the right now even more, neither over 30% in most polls
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    viewcode said:

    Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️@LeftieStats
    🚨 NEW | SNP lead by 7pts in Scotland

    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via @YouGov / @ScotVoting, 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)
    Girl in a jacket

    There isno way the SNP will get 42 seats with a result like this

    This is a model-breaker
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    Stokes is still hobbling....don't panic Captain Mainwaring....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Wasn't Boris absolutely hated in Scotland? So what does Nigel have that Boris didn't?
    Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .

    Interesting. Your Labour friends have turned against him?

    That is definitely my experience, but of course one always wonders if this is self-selection
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    You are deluded. Corbyn's new vehicle simply furnishes Farage or the Tories with a win.

    Are you putting your trust in a man who lost two general elections and got the Labour Party censured by the ECHR as racist?

    Putting a far right Government into Downing Street by default on the back of the comfortable Corbyn's ideology buys not one nurse's salary or even a free school meal.

    Dream on.
    Look at the chart, Corbyn’s new party would not even be in the top three in any age group over 26.

    It will have an impact in inner cities and university towns but marginal seats not so much and even less with tactical voting
    I think it's incredibly sporting of Starmer to reduce the voting aga and get Corbyn off to a strong start
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,065

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .

    Why is he so loathed?
    I don't know if 'loathed' is the right word. But two things stand out: He had a fantastic opportunity and an open goal to lead really well, and speak truth from a position of being able to get stuff done when everyone knew it would be a long and tricky job and he has done that bit so badly lots of people just couldn't believe he could be that bad at it.

    I do not know whether he really lacks an inner life, as he often indicates, but we don't trust people who appear not to have one.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,200
    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Almost perfect fragmentation of Unionist vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    edited July 25
    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .

    Why is he so loathed?
    I don't know if 'loathed' is the right word. But two things stand out: He had a fantastic opportunity and an open goal to lead really well, and speak truth from a position of being able to get stuff done when everyone knew it would be a long and tricky job and he has done that bit so badly lots of people just couldn't believe he could be that bad at it.

    I do not know whether he really lacks an inner life, as he often indicates, but we don't trust people who appear not to have one.
    I was more asking to Nico about his Labour friends rather than in general.

    Personally, I don't loath him. I don't think he is doing a good job, but is that big Labour supporters feel let down that with things like trying to introduce cuts to disabled people?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,308
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️@LeftieStats
    🚨 NEW | SNP lead by 7pts in Scotland

    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via @YouGov / @ScotVoting, 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)
    Girl in a jacket

    There isno way the SNP will get 42 seats with a result like this

    This is a model-breaker
    Somebody has to win. Starmer in 2024 won 411 seats on 33% of the vote. With the non-SNP opposition split four ways it's horribly plausible.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,434
    edited July 25
    HYUFD said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Not much evidence of that much loved Yoon meme of SNP transfers to Reform.
    SLab otoh..
    29% would be the lowest SNP voteshare at a UK general election since 2010, clearly some voters who voted SNP from 2015 to 2019, then went Labour in 2024 are now voting Reform
    Ah, the lesser spotted SNP>SLab>Reform analysis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .

    Why is he so loathed?
    I don't know if 'loathed' is the right word. But two things stand out: He had a fantastic opportunity and an open goal to lead really well, and speak truth from a position of being able to get stuff done when everyone knew it would be a long and tricky job and he has done that bit so badly lots of people just couldn't believe he could be that bad at it.

    I do not know whether he really lacks an inner life, as he often indicates, but we don't trust people who appear not to have one.
    Amongst my Labour friends the attitude to Starmer is:


    1. Loathing
    2. Disappointment now verging on contempt
    3. Anger (Israel, Trump arse-licking etc)

    The best he gets is

    4. Sighing ambivalence - "he's not great but doing his best"

    Not sure I know any that are now honestly positive. This is reflected in the polls
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,733
    IanB2 said:

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    How likely is it that, along with the ideologues, they will attract some decent managers, organisers, and agents? People who will be essential to get beyond just being a protest movement or disorganised rabble?
    Quite likely. Their potential support is much more professional than Reform's, and Reform has on the whole surproised on the upside in terms of organisation (having candidates everywhere for a start).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,434
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️@LeftieStats
    🚨 NEW | SNP lead by 7pts in Scotland

    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via @YouGov / @ScotVoting, 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)
    Girl in a jacket

    There isno way the SNP will get 42 seats with a result like this

    This is a model-breaker
    There's also no way Reform will win Bathgate & Linlithgow or Hamilton & Clyde Valley, so..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,992

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance whilst Starmer remains PM . The loathing of him by friends who were previously staunch Labour is off the scale . Historically Labour have not been ruthless when it comes to removing leaders .

    Why is he so loathed?
    I don't know if 'loathed' is the right word. But two things stand out: He had a fantastic opportunity and an open goal to lead really well, and speak truth from a position of being able to get stuff done when everyone knew it would be a long and tricky job and he has done that bit so badly lots of people just couldn't believe he could be that bad at it.

    I do not know whether he really lacks an inner life, as he often indicates, but we don't trust people who appear not to have one.
    I was more asking to Nico about his Labour friends rather than in general.

    Personally, I don't loath him. I don't think he is doing a good job, but is that big Labour supporters feel let down that with things like trying to introduce cuts to disabled people?
    I'm edging from disappointment to contempt myself. Its becoming more than a bit pathetic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    sarissa said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Almost perfect fragmentation of Unionist vote.
    Enough to ensure a comfortable Unionist majority at Holyrood next year with PR though and block indyref2. Keeping Swinney neutered
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    edited July 25
    Why does a cricket match going well give me more "happy vibes" than any other sport?

    Sunshine? Summeriness? The banter? Everyone is drunk? The shadows lengthen and all that? Is it the bittersweet melancholy that is an ingredient in all true happiness?

    And I look through my tears on a soundless-clapping host.
    As the run stealers flicker to and fro,
    To and fro
    O my Hornby and my Barlow long ago, long ago
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088

    IanB2 said:

    I think, as a possible recruit for the new party (and I'm a former MP over 13 years and chair of my constituency Labour party), that it's too soon to say whether it will break through. There is a large audience for a progressive party with a positive message with a realistic flavour, and I don't think that left/right designations entirely reflect the reality. A positive leftish party that reaches for the centre ground and avoids getting bogged down in internal disputes could do extremely well; Corbyn's involvement would be important but not sufficient.

    I'm not volunteering for the first wave - over 50 years in Labour counts for a good deal and we'll need to see the early direction of the new party. But it deserves serious consideration on its merits, and electoral projections ("What if the Labour vote broke exactly evenly?" etc.) aren't too relevant at this stage, as a great many votes are highly fluid.

    How likely is it that, along with the ideologues, they will attract some decent managers, organisers, and agents? People who will be essential to get beyond just being a protest movement or disorganised rabble?
    Quite likely. Their potential support is much more professional than Reform's, and Reform has on the whole surproised on the upside in terms of organisation (having candidates everywhere for a start).
    Indeed, Corbyn’s voters and members will be more likely to be graduates than Reform’s will be and Reform still don’t get the big City and millionaire donors the Tories do. A few Unions may switch from Labour to Corbyn too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    BAZBALL
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,992
    Leon said:

    BAZBALL

    Maybe. I think Stokes just wants to ensure that the dust into which India are being ground is extremely fine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    WHY IS STOKES HOBBLING
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    I think Stokes has f##ked his knee.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BAZBALL

    Maybe. I think Stokes just wants to ensure that the dust into which India are being ground is extremely fine.
    Or he just doesn't want to run singles and twos. He's clearly got some issue: which is not good. We need him to bowl India out
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,200
    HYUFD said:

    sarissa said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Almost perfect fragmentation of Unionist vote.
    Enough to ensure a comfortable Unionist majority at Holyrood next year with PR though and block indyref2. Keeping Swinney neutered
    Reform, whatever share it gets in 2026, is a repository for the anti-establishment vote. That in itself will shore up both SNP and the trad Unionist parties. After all, a new threat is scarier than one that has been around for ages.

    The one thing reform will not do is defend Holyrood against Westminster.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,522
    HYUFD said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Reform plus Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland now
    If Scots simply saw REFORM as former Tory's I doubt they would be up 15%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,017
    edited July 25
    Leon said:

    WHY IS STOKES HOBBLING

    He went for a reverse sweep a few overs ago and twisted it. At the time the commentators said ohhh cramp...but it looked to me just like 2-3 years ago when it would "lock" and he was basically f##ked for bowling.

    He was really weird about ever telling anybody what the injury actually was, just that he had surgery. I have always suspected it might be something that can't ever be fully fixed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,294
    HYUFD said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Wasn't Boris absolutely hated in Scotland? So what does Nigel have that Boris didn't?
    Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019
    What would he have got by the middle of 2022?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,925
    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    It'll come down to the ground game rather than the air game. Reform may have the BBC in it's pocket but these guys have a motivated and usually educated following who can put an argument across in non-Daily Mail ways. It's also a convenient place for Labour to send those on the naughty step.

    Hardly, GB news may be in Reform’s pocket but the BBC is firmly Starmer Labour
    Have you watched the BBC lately? Nigel Farage is on every 10 minutes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,425
    Stokes should just whack a few boundaries then get out, so he can rest up as the other batters hit 100 more
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,904
    viewcode said:

    I HAVE HAD A TOOTHBRUSH BRISTLE STUCK IN ONE OF MY TEETH FOR WEEKS. IT WAS VERY IRRITATING. IT FINALLY WORKED ITS WAY OUT.

    PAUSE.

    THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

    Reminds me of the episode of Curb where LD had one of Cheryl’s pubes wrapped around his tonsil after a nocturnal activity. Worked its way out after a few days !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    sarissa said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is a stunning poll! And a Yougov poll to boot!


    🟡 SNP – 29% (-1)
    ➡️ REF – 22% (+15)
    🔴 LAB – 19% (-16)
    🟠 LD – 11% (+1)
    🔵 CON – 10% (-3)
    🟢 GRN – 7% (+3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    /
    @ScotVoting
    , 13-19 Jun (+/- vs GE24)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1948706156353819074

    Almost perfect fragmentation of Unionist vote.
    Enough to ensure a comfortable Unionist majority at Holyrood next year with PR though and block indyref2. Keeping Swinney neutered
    Reform, whatever share it gets in 2026, is a repository for the anti-establishment vote. That in itself will shore up both SNP and the trad Unionist parties. After all, a new threat is scarier than one that has been around for ages.

    The one thing reform will not do is defend Holyrood against Westminster.
    Correct, indeed many in Reform want to scrap Holyrood and the Senedd
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,088

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    It'll come down to the ground game rather than the air game. Reform may have the BBC in it's pocket but these guys have a motivated and usually educated following who can put an argument across in non-Daily Mail ways. It's also a convenient place for Labour to send those on the naughty step.

    Hardly, GB news may be in Reform’s pocket but the BBC is firmly Starmer Labour
    Have you watched the BBC lately? Nigel Farage is on every 10 minutes.
    As he leads the polls
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